PetroChina Co Ltd

SSE:601857

Earnings Call Transcript 2019-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the conference call. Today with us, we have the management team of PetroChina. Please go ahead.

[Wei Fang, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of PetroChina Company Limited, I would like to welcome you all and thank you all for attending the company's 2019 third quarter results and analyst conference call. My name is Wei Fang, Assistant Secretary to the Board. Today, I'm also joining a number with my -- a number of my colleagues from the finance and IR team. The -- Madame [ Pei Ying ] Assistant Secretary to the Board of Directors.

[Unknown Executive]

Hello.

[Wei Fang, executive]

And [ Wan Ling ] -- Madame [ Wan Ling ] Senior Director and Head of Border Affairs.

[Unknown Executive]

Hello. Good morning.

[Wei Fang, executive]

And also Mr. Liang Gang, Security Affairs Representative and Senior Director for Compliance and Disclosure.

[Liang Gang;Security Affairs Representative and Senior Director for Compliance and Disclosure, executive]

Hi. Good morning.

[Wei Fang, executive]

And also Mr. Wang Kaisheng, Director of Financial Disclosure.

[Wang Kaisheng;Director of Finance, executive]

Hi. Good morning.

[Wei Fang, executive]

And Madame [ Yu Mung ], Deputy Director of Finance.

[Unknown Executive]

Hi. Good morning.

[Wei Fang, executive]

And also Mr. [ John Lei ] Director of Investor Relations.

[Unknown Executive]

Hello.

[Wei Fang, executive]

Now it is my pleasure to invite Dr. Brian Xing, Deputy Director of Investor Relations to present the company's financial and operational highlights for the third quarter 2009 (sic) [ 2019 ] and first 9 months of 2009 (sic) [ 2019 ]. Then I will introduce our major recent discoveries and progresses. At end, we will have Q&A.

[Chong Xing;Deputy Director of Investor Relations, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. I would like to give you a brief introduction of PetroChina's 2019 third quarter results. In the first 3 quarters of 2019, the world economic and trade environment became even more severe and complicated, and economic growth generally slowed down with comparatively more downward pressure. China's economy maintained its steady and progressive development with an increase of 6.2% in the GDP as compared with the same period of last year. Its economic operations were maintained in a reasonable range with a certain downward pressure. The demand and supply in the global oil market was generally abundant. The international oil price fluctuated with some -- with a falling tendency after continuous rise at the beginning of the year and the average price decreased as compared with the same period of last year.

The average spot price of North Sea Brent crude oil and the average spot price of the WTI crude oil price were USD 64.59 per barrel and USD 57.08 per barrel, respectively, representing a decrease of 10.5% and 14.7% as compared with the same period of last year, respectively. The domestic refined product market was at abundant supply and demand with intensified overcapacity and fierce competition. The market demand for natural gas continued to grow but at a slowing down rate. Facing these complex and difficult operating situations domestically and abroad, PetroChina adhered to the requirements for high-quality development, pursued to its guidelines of [ steady ] development, strengthened organization of production and operations, pushed forward business structure adjustments, promoted reform and innovation and continued to make more efforts in broadening sources of income, reducing costs and improving efficiency, thus having achieved controlled production and operation.

Due to the reduction in international oil price and intensive competition in domestic refined oil market, its operating results decreased as compared with the same period of last year. According to IFRS, in the third quarter of 2019, due to the oil price decline, PetroChina recorded turnover of RMB 618 billion, increase about 1.8% year-on-year. Profit from operations was RMB 24.7 billion and net profit attributable to shareholders of the company was RMB 8.8 billion. Basic earnings per share was RMB 0.048. In the first 3 quarters of 2019, PetroChina recorded turnover of RMB 1.81 trillion, increase about 5.1%. Profit from operations was RMB 95.4 billion. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the company was RMB 37.3 billion. The basic EPS was RMB 0.204.

As for the Exploration and Production segment, in the third quarter of 2019, the company produced 230.8 million barrels of crude, up about 2.3%, of which, domestic production reached 187.1 million barrels, up about 1% and overseas crude production reached about 43.7 million barrels, up about 8.4%.

Our marketable natural gas output reached 928.5 billion cubic feet, up about 6.7% year-on-year. In the first 9 months of 2019, PetroChina produced 682.7 million barrels of crude, up about 2.9% year-on-year, of which, domestic production increased about 1.4% and overseas production up about 10.3%.

We also produced 3.89 trillion (sic) [ 2.89 ] trillion cubic feet of marketable natural gas, up about 8.9% (sic) [ 8.7% ] year-on-year within which domestic production increased about 9.7% and overseas production increased (sic) [ decreased ] by 3.4%. The oil and gas equivalent output in the third quarter was 385.6 million barrels, up about 4% year-on-year. And in the first 9 months of 2019, the oil and gas equivalent output was 1.165 trillion -- 1.16 billion barrels, up about 5.2%, within which, the overseas production accounts about 13.7% of the total production.

The operating profit for the segment was -- in the third quarter was RMB 23.3 billion, and in the first 9 months was RMB 76.9 billion, significantly increased about 32.9%.

As for the oil price, in the first 9 months of 2019, the average realized crude price was USD 61.49 per barrel, down about 9.5% year-on-year. The average realized natural gas price was USD 5.49 per thousand cubic feet, down about 4%. The oil and gas lifting cost was USD 11.28 per barrel, down about 1.7% year-on-year. As for the Refining and Chemicals segment, the company processed 308.5 million barrels of crude in the third quarter, up about 6.7%, and processed 905.9 million barrels of crude in the first 9 months, up about 4.3%.

In the third quarter, the Refining and Chemicals segment recorded an operating profit of RMB 2.17 billion, within which, the Refining business recorded an operating profit of RMB 2.03 billion, and the Chemical business recorded an operating profit of RMB 133 million. In the first 9 months of the year, the segment recorded an operating profit of RMB 7.13 billion, within which, the Refining business recorded an operating profit of RMB 3.41 billion, and the Chemical business recorded an operating profit of RMB 3.72 billion.

As for the output of oil products, in the third quarter of the year, the output of oil products was 29.87 million tons, up about 10.1% year-on-year, within which, the gasoline output was 12.5 million tons, up about 12%; kerosene output was 3.34 million tons, up about 13.7%; and diesel output was 14.03 million tons, up about 7.6% year-on-year.

For major chemical products, in the third quarter, we produced 1.3 million tons of ethylene, and we also produced 460,000 tons of urea. As for the first 9 months of the year, the output of oil products was about 86.6 million tons, up about 6.2%; gasoline output was 37.08 million tons, up about 11.5%; kerosene output was 9.38 billion tons, up about 13%; and diesel output was 40.12 million tons, up about 0.4% year-on-year. For major chemical products, in the first 9 months of the year, the company produced 4.29 million tons of ethylene and also 919,000 tons of urea.

As for the marketing segment, the sales of the refined oil products reached 48.8 million tons in the third quarter of the year, up about 4.4%, within which, the sales of gasoline was 20.35 million tons, up about 13.1%; the sales of kerosene was 4.89 million tons, down 15.1%; sales of diesel was 23.52 million tons, up about 2.6% year-on-year.

In the first 9 months of the year, the sales of the refined oil products reached 138.7 million tons, up about 0.8% year-on-year. The sales of gasoline was 56.85 million tons, up about 2.5%. Sales of gasoline (sic) [ kerosene ] was 15.02 million tons, down 1.1%. The sales of diesel was 66.8 million tons, flattish year-on-year.

As for the operating profit, in the third quarter of the year, the marketing segment recorded an operating loss of RMB 1.48 billion, and in the first 9 months of the year, the marketing segment recorded an operating profit of RMB 422 million.

As for the Natural Gas and Pipeline segment, in the third quarter of 2019, the segment realized operating profit of RMB 3.65 billion, up about 0.9%. And in the first 9 months of the year, the segment realized operating profit of RMB 21.95 billion, up about 11.3% year-on-year.

As for the fourth quarter of 2019, the company will continue to adhere to the policy of stable development, focusing on the following path: firstly, striving to increase domestic oil and gas reserves, production and efficiency. The company will strengthen the implementation of the deployed risk exploration, expanding exploration results and increase the scale of available reserves. From those with [ construction of key safety ] projects, ensure the completion of [indiscernible] production targets, strengthen the scientific development of the gas fields and maintain stable operation of shale gas production organizations in order to strive to increase production, effectively control costs and make every effort to promote domestic oil and gas reserve production and efficiency.

Secondly, strengthening development and operation of new overseas projects. The company will deepen oil and gas cooperation along the Belt and Road countries and regions. We are striving to scale discovery and strategic [ discussion, ] promote capacity and maintain stable production of the existing projects and further expand overseas oil and gas cooperation.

Thirdly, promoting structural adjustments of the Refining and Chemical business and reducing the cost and increasing efficiency. We will improve and implement the high-quality development plan for refining and petrochemical business, continue to promote transformation and upgrading of the refining and petrochemical business, try to reduce costs and increase efficiency and enhance the overall competitiveness and economic benefits of the refining and petrochemical business.

Fourthly, promoting volume and profitability in sales of refined oil products. We will strengthen the overall linkage and coordination among those enterprises, highlight the efficiency of retail, improve the high-quality strategic regional marketing network and promote the expansion of product sales.

Fifthly, promoting the efficiency of natural gas sales. We will optimize the resource structure with the allocation of domestic and imported gas resources. We will increase the inclination to the high-end market, prioritize goals to ensure the full sales of domestic production, improve the differential marketing strategy, increase the online trading volume and strive to promote price and efficiency.

Sixthly, [ promoting ] reform and innovation. We will focus on [ deep exploration ] and shale and gas exploration and development as well as improving core technologies such as [ oily ] recovery, transformation and upgrading of refining and petrochemical industries, promoting major special research projects and increasing the promotion and application of technology integration. As for the key operating targets of 2019, the crude oil output reached about 75.4% of the 2-year target. Marketable natural gas output achieved about 75.9% a year of target, oil and gas equivalent output achieved about 75.6% of the target and crude processing volume achieved about 77.4% of the target.

That's all for PetroChina's 2019 third quarter results presentation. Thank you.

[Wei Fang, executive]

So now we go for the Q&A.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from [ Andy Lo ] with Morgan Stanley.

[Unknown Analyst]

I have 2 questions. So the first question is regarding the first 3 quarters this like upstream, downstream diverging performance. So if we look at the upstream, it's pretty good but for the downstream, we see earnings see a large decline. So can you elaborate a little bit more regarding the reason and also the outlook for the fourth quarter of this year? The second question is regarding the National Pipeline Company. We see a lot of media reporting that this company will be established October 18. Now it's already end of October, but we haven't seen any news regarding this like announcement of establishment. What's the detail behind that? And if company can make any comment regarding whether the National Company can be established in November or like even delayed to next year? Any color will be very helpful.

[Unknown Executive]

[Foreign Language]

[Wei Fang, executive]

[Interpreted] Hi, [ Andy ], let me take your question. So you're right. So there is a major divergence on the upstream and downstream profitability and it was showed on -- also showed in some peer companies' performances as well. So actually this kind of performance is actually echoed with the earlier conversation we've had this -- early this year regarding to the 3 main things in domestic oil and gas sector in China. So in upstream, there will be increased efforts to increase the exploration and production. As you can see that all the domestic, Sinopec, PetroChina, CNOOC, they have very strong production growth, and very -- all of them -- most of -- and PetroChina and the Sinopec announced very significant reserve discoveries fairly recently, on which I will elaborate later. So this is the one -- in terms of upstream, intensified efforts to increase -- to boost the production, to increase the reserves. In the midstream, there will be a major regulatory change given to the potential establishment of the National Pipeline Company. I got a feeling -- this is related to your second question. I got a feeling that the clock is ticking, but honestly, I don't have a timetable at the moment. And third main thing is a more competitive market in the downstream. So it is, I think, all the major things actually happened, now you can see the consequences. So PetroChina now is in a very challenging time, particularly in a very relatively sluggish market demand growth. Our profitability was actually hit by the sluggish demand. In relation to the fourth quarter, generally speaking, fourth quarter was not a peak season. So I expect that fourth quarter, you will be similar see -- you will be see similar profitability, similar kind of market conditions or we hope for the better. But I assume a probably similar situation than compared to the third quarter. And for us, I have to draw your attention that PetroChina is a more integrated company with more emphasis on E&P. So I'm very proud. And recently PetroChina was very proud to announce a number of discoveries in the Ordos Basin and in the Sichuan Basin, and recently we have organized a field trip for our shareholders to witness our successes in those areas. So those -- the recent exploration success have laid a very solid foundation for future production growth and profitability growth. So I understand the investors are very eager to see the result of those discoveries. But I have to tell you that those -- the production success needs to take time to monetize. But I'm very happy to announce that we have -- in Ordos Basin we were able to have this additional oil in place of 358 million tons with estimated original oil in place of 693 million tons and for natural gas we have accumulated or proven gas-in-place of over 1 trillion -- million tons in -- trillion cubic meters in Sichuan Basin. So those successes actually shows our endeavor to carry out our strategy of innovation, a high-quality development. So also I would like to caution that those reserves numbers are proven and confirmed by the reserve assessment of the Ministry of Natural Resources. But those numbers are not as easy numbers. The numbers -- the confirmed reserve [indiscernible] number will be announced next year. So you can see one of the major significant improvements for PetroChina, particularly for 2019, is the successes in the reserve addition. So that's one of the key areas that I want you to focus on. And also as just now Brian mentioned that we have a very robust upstream production growth. So first half, our production of oil went up by almost 3%, our gas production went up almost by 9%. This is one of the historical production growth highlights in over recent years. I think similar kind of growth you will be seeing in the next 2 or 3 years with the support of the recent oil and gas discoveries. So that actually increases our confidence in our capacities to bring up a very strong production growth and profitability growth. So that's probably what I wanted you to see. So for the market -- for the downstream market, I think, for next year, probably similar competitive environment or even more so. So it's challenging and we are trying our best to reduce our costs, to improve our product mix, to further improve the profitability. In terms of the establishment of the National Pipeline Company, at the moment, I think the government is working very hard on that and I think they already have established a preparation committee, but the timetable is not yet known. But I understand the clock is ticking and we are in the active discussion and engagement with the government to pass on our shareholders' concern to further promote a more market-driven reform to -- in order to safeguard the interests of all our shareholders. Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question is Neil with Bernstein, Hong Kong.

[Neil Beveridge, analyst]

Just some questions on the gas side. First of all, we saw lower gas prices, natural gas prices for the first 9 months. This was in contrast to Sinopec where I think we saw slightly higher gas prices. Is this just a currency effect? And how do you think about gas prices going forward? And the second question is on the unit losses. We've seen lower per unit losses in 3Q, which is an improvement, but still CNY 21 billion losses for the year-to-date. As we go into next year, with an additional 5 Bcm of Russian gas, would you expect that number to go higher? And then, maybe just a third question, just on the market itself. We've seen slower growth this year in the gas market in China. As we come into the winter heating season, are you expecting to see growth remain at a slower rate than last year? Or do you expect to see a pickup as we move into the year-end?

[Unknown Executive]

[Foreign Language]

[Wei Fang, executive]

Thank you, Neil. I would like to pass this on -- question to Mr. Wang Kaisheng, Director of Finance.

[Wang Kaisheng;Director of Finance, executive]

[Interpreted] First, I would like to take your question related to natural gas -- realized natural gas. For the first 3 quarters, the out of factory realized natural gas price was USD 5.49 per thousand cubic feet, down by 4% year-on-year. But at one point, I want to make a [indiscernible] this realized price is combined at -- is combining the domestic -- both domestic realized price as well as the internationally trading natural gas price. And in fact, the domestically realized natural gas price was USD 5.94 per barrel, up by 0.7% year-on-year.

Just now the number that I gave you, 0.7% increase year-on-year in U.S. dollars calculation and you know for the first 9 months, U.S. dollar appreciation have also made influence on the realized natural gas price. In terms of RMB calculation and the figure is RMB 1.44 per cubic meter, increased by 5.8% year-on-year.

We know that the fourth quarter will see a peak utilization of natural gas. And for PetroChina, we'll put every effort to increase the production of natural gas and a series of measures will be taken in this regard. And we will also take advantage of the relevant national policies to push up the realized natural gas price.

Now I would like to take your second question related to the gas import loss. For the first 3 quarters, our total loss was RMB 21.764 billion, increased by RMB 1.807 billion.

A series of measures have been taken to do the loss control in this regard. For the first half, we'll see a decrease in the loss from the imported natural gas. But in the third quarter, we'll see an increase in the loss, which is mainly caused by the weak RMB currency as well as the increase in the procurement cost.

In the future, a series of effective measures will be taken to control the loss making in the imported natural gas. Firstly, we will optimize the structure of imported natural gas resources, try to lower the procurement cost. Secondly, we will prioritize the sales of natural gas to those high-end markets. Thirdly, in the winter season and peak -- or the peak [ shaving ] season, we will take advantage of provincial policies to push up the realized natural gas price in this period. And overall, we are confident, in the future, we will effectively control loss-making in the imported natural gas.

[Operator]

Our next question is from Toby with Citigroup.

[Toby Shek, analyst]

I have 2 question. One question is a follow-up question on the import gas losses. So may I know the actual volume that we imported in the third quarter? Is it like increased quarter-on-quarter or flat? I want to have an idea on that. And secondly, may I know, has the portion of long-term contract volume in third quarter increased? And how would this proportion change going into the fourth quarter? Because, as I know, fourth quarter, normally there will be more spot LNGs which is less costly, so which probably helps in terms of controlling the import gas losses. And lastly the third question is regarding the gas price hike in winter. How should we expect for the gas price hike this year if you compare to the winter last year?

[Unknown Executive]

[Foreign Language]

[Wei Fang, executive]

So this -- I will pass this question to Mr. Wang Kaisheng.

[Wang Kaisheng;Director of Finance, executive]

[Interpreted] And the first question related to the volume that imported. In the third quarter, the number was 15.7 billion cubic meters, which is quite flat comparing to the second quarter. On one hand, we try to control the imported volume of [ long tracks ] -- on [ long tracks ] and, on the other hand, we try to procure more spot. In this way, we can effectively control the loss-making in the imported gas.

As for your second question related to the price hike in the last quarter, just now I mentioned a series of effective measures will be taken to increase the realized price of natural gas in the last quarter and -- while decreasing the loss-making.

And we believe, based on these effective measures, the [indiscernible] will see a price hike and the realized price of natural gas will be higher than last year.

[Wei Fang, executive]

We hope we will have a cold winter.

[Operator]

Next question is from Scott with JPMorgan.

[Scott Darling, analyst]

A couple of things. On your production, it looks like especially on the gas side, you might beat your full year target. Are you reiterating your full year production target? Do you think you might beat it slightly? CapEx was a little bit lower than we'd expect. Any views on that? Will you have a CapEx catch up in the fourth quarter? And then I appreciate you can't give too much information on the NPC timing and it's not in your hands. But for some of the investors we get asked, can you -- are you allowed to go through some of the scenarios in which this pipeline for PetroChina company might happen in terms of obviously cash compensation? If the government has 51% stake, what happens to your import contracts? Can you load debt that into the new business? Are you allowed to give us sort of any scenarios of what you've been thinking, even though, we appreciate it's not your decision, it's ultimately the government.

[Unknown Executive]

[Foreign Language]

[Wei Fang, executive]

I will pass this question to Dr. Brian Xing.

[Chong Xing;Deputy Director of Investor Relations, executive]

Thank you, Scott. I think you have noticed that the natural gas production of the company, in the first 3 quarters, reached about 2.89 trillion cubic feet, increased about 8.7%, which also achieved about 75.9% of the full year target already. So currently, we have not changed the full year target. But according to our current operation progress, I believe it is high -- probably that we will beat the target for full year. As for the CapEx, calculated without the cash that we have paid, and we have also not changed the full year target yet, but we will arrange the full year CapEx according to operations and also according to the oil price, we will -- we may have some adjustments, but we will -- do need to see how the fourth quarter goes.

[Unknown Executive]

In regards to your second question regarding to the National Pipeline establishment, I have to be honest that I'm not -- we are not in a position to comment at this moment because -- but what we can -- I can tell you is that, recently, we have received a number of letters and concerns from our major shareholders in writing to our Board of Directors, to our management. The major concern was related to the valuation, with the cash compensation, with the dividend, with the share, with the import gas losses and responsibility for supply, those -- as just you mentioned. So we have already passed on those concerns to the government bodies. I think that those kind of issues might will -- I think they will most likely to be taken into consideration by the government bodies. But at the moment, regarding -- we are not in a position to comment on any of those kind of issues. Once this is decided or everything moves on, we have to disclose those information, we will like to -- we will definitely to release those kind of information as soon as possible.

[Operator]

We have the last question from Lawrence with BOCI.

[Lawrence Lau, analyst]

[Interpreted] I have 2 questions. And the first one is related to the operating profit from E&P, the third quarter. And we know this, there is a decrease Q-on-Q for the E&P, but we know the group -- the oil price was already decreased by 11%. And I want to know that, excluding the oil price as well as the lifting costs, those issues, is there any other reasons for the decrease of E&P segment profit? The second question is related to the marketing segment. We know that [indiscernible] still suffering from a great loss in the third quarter but with no different picture for Sinopec. And I want to know that it's just the marketing [ in crude ] in domestic China or the international trading is also not desirable for the third quarter?

[Wei Fang, executive]

[Foreign Language] Stabilize. So actually, the second -- a Q-on-Q comparison, we have a similar trend with Sinopec, but given to the magnitude, our performance was not visible -- the improvement was not visible. So actually, we hope that -- so basically Q-on-Q, on the refining, marketing, we saw Q-on-Q improvement. But -- so that's the reason I said that we hope that the fourth quarter will be somewhat similar to the third quarter. Related to your first question, let me go to Mr. Wang.

[Wang Kaisheng;Director of Finance, executive]

[Interpreted] For second quarter -- for third quarter E&P operating profit reached RMB 23.3 billion, down RMB 16 billion comparing to the second quarter. The change is mainly caused by, the first one is a decrease in realized [Technical Difficulty] second one is that due to the decrease in the international oil price. According to the requirement now by SEC to evaluate our reserves, the [indiscernible] and that in the same time, and the production increased. So we accrued more [indiscernible] third quarter.

Finally, I want to make a conclusion as the following: First, we know the environment is not good. PetroChina is facing many challenges. But for us, we believe we have the ability and we have the willingness to stabilize our production, to stabilize the dividend payout ratio to pay back to our shareholders. And for the NPC establishment, I think we are in the process of the -- in this process, we will try every effort to safeguard interests of our shareholders. And finally, we will further optimize the operations, the management as well as the production of our company, try to improve our profitability and to give a better feedback to our shareholders.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your support and interest for PetroChina.

[Operator]

Thank you for joining the conference call. The call has been concluded. You may disconnect.

[Portions of this transcript that are marked [Interpreted] were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]