Air China Ltd
SSE:601111
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one Air China Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 11.72 CNY. Compared to the current market price of 8.01 CNY, Air China Ltd is Undervalued by 32%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Air China Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Air China Ltd
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Air China Ltd. stands as a prominent player in the aviation sector, serving as the flagship carrier of the People's Republic of China. Established in 1988, the company has grown to encompass an extensive network of domestic and international routes, connecting major global cities while catering to the rising demand for air travel among Chinese consumers. As one of the largest airlines in Asia, Air China boasts a modern fleet, leveraging advanced technology to enhance operational efficiency and provide a comfortable travel experience. With China's burgeoning middle class and increasing tourism activities, Air China is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities within both...
Air China Ltd. stands as a prominent player in the aviation sector, serving as the flagship carrier of the People's Republic of China. Established in 1988, the company has grown to encompass an extensive network of domestic and international routes, connecting major global cities while catering to the rising demand for air travel among Chinese consumers. As one of the largest airlines in Asia, Air China boasts a modern fleet, leveraging advanced technology to enhance operational efficiency and provide a comfortable travel experience. With China's burgeoning middle class and increasing tourism activities, Air China is well-positioned to capitalize on long-term growth opportunities within both passenger and cargo segments.
For investors, Air China presents a compelling opportunity to tap into the dynamics of the rapidly expanding aviation market. The airline has been strategically investing in fleet upgrades and digital transformation initiatives, aimed at optimizing customer service and improving operational efficiency. Furthermore, the company has been proactive in embracing sustainability, signaling its commitment to reducing carbon emissions amid growing environmental concerns. While challenges such as fluctuating fuel prices and geopolitical tensions exist, Air China's cornerstone position in the industry and robust recovery strategies post-pandemic suggest a resilient outlook. As the world recovers and travel demand rebounds, investors may find Air China to be more than just an airline; it is a burgeoning enterprise ready to soar in a rapidly evolving market.
Air China Ltd., as one of the largest airlines in China, operates several core business segments that contribute to its overall revenue and operational strategy. These segments include:
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Passenger Transportation: This is the largest segment for Air China, encompassing the domestic and international carriage of passengers. The airline operates an extensive network of routes, connecting major cities in China with destinations around the world. The effectiveness in managing this segment relies on optimizing flight schedules, capacity, and customer service.
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Cargo Transportation: In addition to passenger services, Air China is involved in freight and cargo transport. This segment involves the movement of goods by air, which can include both domestic and international shipments. The cargo business is crucial for generating additional revenue and leveraging existing flight capacities.
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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) Services: Air China provides MRO services for its aircraft fleet and those of other airlines. This segment is essential for ensuring operational safety and efficiency, as well as representing a potential revenue stream from third-party airline maintenance contracts.
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Tourism and Travel Services: Air China also engages in tourism-related services, which might include flight packages, hotel bookings, and related offerings. This segment caters to the increasing demand for bundled travel services among consumers.
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Other Aviation Services: This includes various ancillary services related to air travel, such as ground handling, inflight catering, and airport services. These services help enhance overall customer experience and can contribute to incremental revenue.
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Investment and Holdings: Air China may engage in investments and strategic partnerships within the aviation sector, including owning stakes in other airlines or related businesses. This segment helps diversify revenue streams and create synergies across operations.
Each of these segments plays a crucial role in Air China's overall business strategy, contributing to its capabilities to serve a broad market and maintain competitive advantages in the airline industry.
Air China Ltd holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals, which can be categorized into various aspects:
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Strong Brand Recognition: As the flag carrier of China, Air China benefits from significant brand recognition both domestically and internationally. This association adds a level of trust and prestige to its services.
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Government Support: Being a state-owned enterprise, Air China enjoys considerable support from the Chinese government. This can manifest in favorable regulatory conditions, financial backing during tough times, and strategic influence in policy-making related to air travel.
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Extensive Domestic Network: Air China has a robust domestic route network that facilitates connectivity across China. This extensive reach allows them to serve a vast customer base more effectively than some international competitors.
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International Partnerships and Alliances: Air China is a member of the Star Alliance, which enhances its global reach by allowing code-sharing and cooperation with other major airlines. This expands its offerings and customer base without necessitating direct competition on every route.
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Modern Fleet and Infrastructure: Air China has invested in a modern fleet and airport facilities, improving operational efficiency, safety, and customer experience. A newer fleet can lead to lower maintenance costs and better fuel efficiency.
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Diverse Service Offerings: The airline provides a range of services including premium classes, cargo operations, and tour packages, catering to various customer segments. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in demand in different areas of the airline industry.
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Focus on Business Segments: Air China caters extensively to corporate and business travelers, providing enhanced services, lounges, and flexible ticket options that appeal to this lucrative market segment.
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Strategic Hubs: Air China operates from key hubs, such as Beijing Capital International Airport, which facilitates easy connections and efficient routing for both domestic and international passengers.
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Cultural Tie-ins: The airline promotes Chinese culture through its services, which can appeal to international travelers interested in experiencing Chinese hospitality.
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Cost Management: With state backing, Air China may have advantages in operational cost management, being able to leverage economies of scale that independently operated carriers cannot as easily achieve.
These competitive advantages position Air China to effectively compete within the airline industry, particularly in markets where connectivity to and from China is a significant factor.
Air China Ltd, like many airlines, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Economic Conditions: Global economic fluctuations, such as recessions or slowdowns, can significantly affect passenger travel demand. A weakening economy may lead to reduced business travel, which is often more profitable than leisure travel.
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Fuel Prices: Volatility in fuel prices can greatly impact operating costs. Increased oil prices can lead to higher ticket prices and potentially reduced demand if consumers seek cheaper alternatives.
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Pandemic and Health Risks: While the COVID-19 pandemic has subsided somewhat, concerns around new variants or other health crises can lead to dips in travel demand and stricter regulations, impacting operations.
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Competitive Pressure: Intense competition from both domestic and international airlines can lead to price wars, impacting profitability. Low-cost carriers may particularly exert pressure on fares.
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Regulatory Challenges: Changes in aviation regulations, both domestically and internationally, can affect operations. Compliance with safety, environmental, and labor regulations can lead to increased costs.
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Geopolitical Tensions: Tensions in international relations, trade disputes, or changes in visa policies can impact cross-border travel demand. Issues such as Taiwan Strait tensions can also create uncertainty for airlines operating in the region.
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Environmental Regulations: Increasing pressure to reduce carbon emissions could lead to additional regulations and costs, particularly as the aviation industry faces scrutiny over its environmental footprint.
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Cybersecurity Threats: As airlines increasingly rely on digital technology for operations and customer service, they face heightened risk of cyberattacks that could disrupt operations and compromise customer data.
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Customer Preferences: Changing customer behaviors and preferences, influenced by remote work trends and shifting priorities, may affect demand for air travel, particularly for business flights.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges in the supply chain for aircraft parts and services can lead to maintenance delays and increased costs, hindering operational efficiency.
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Labor Relations: Potential labor disputes, such as strikes or demands for higher wages, could disrupt operations and lead to increased costs.
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Fluctuating Exchange Rates: As a large international player, Air China is exposed to risks from fluctuating foreign exchange rates, which can affect profitability on international routes.
Addressing these risks will require strategic planning, robust financial management, operational efficiency, and adaptability to changing market conditions.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Air China Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Air China Ltd
Current Assets | 42.9B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 21B |
Receivables | 14B |
Other Current Assets | 8B |
Non-Current Assets | 302.5B |
Long-Term Investments | 19.4B |
PP&E | 258.7B |
Intangibles | 9.6B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 14.8B |
Current Liabilities | 141.3B |
Accounts Payable | 22.2B |
Accrued Liabilities | 3.7B |
Short-Term Debt | 22.9B |
Other Current Liabilities | 92.5B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 167.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 146.2B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 21.3B |
Earnings Waterfall
Air China Ltd
Revenue
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161B
CNY
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Cost of Revenue
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-152.6B
CNY
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Gross Profit
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8.4B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
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-7.3B
CNY
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Operating Income
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1B
CNY
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Other Expenses
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-1.4B
CNY
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Net Income
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-378.1m
CNY
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Air China Ltd
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Air China Ltd's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Air China Ltd's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Air China Ltd's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Air China Ltd's solvency score is 24/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
Air China Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for Air China Ltd is 7.19 CNY with a low forecast of 4.57 CNY and a high forecast of 10.4 CNY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for Air China Ltd is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Air China Ltd is a CN-based company operating in Airlines industry. The company is headquartered in Beijing, Beijing and currently employs 88,395 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2006-08-18. Air China Limited is a China-based company principally engaged in the provision of air passenger transportation, freight transportation, postal transportation and maintenance services in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and foreign regions. The firm is also engaged in domestic and international business aviation businesses, plane business, aircraft maintenance, airlines business agents, ground and air express services related to main businesses, duty free on boards, retail business on boards and aviation accident insurance sales agents business.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one Air China Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 11.72 CNY.
Compared to the current market price of 8.01 CNY, Air China Ltd is Undervalued by 32%.