Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
SSE:600519
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 923.2133 CNY. Compared to the current market price of 1 507.8199 CNY, Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is Undervalued by 22%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
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Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd. stands as a beacon of excellence in the world of premium alcoholic beverages, specifically in the production of baijiu, a traditional Chinese liquor. Founded in the late 1940s and based in the picturesque town of Maota, the company has cultivated a legacy rooted in craftsmanship and quality. Over the decades, Kweichow Moutai has transformed from a local distillery into a global powerhouse, consistently dominating the high-end liquor market. Its flagship product, Moutai, is often regarded as China’s national drink, deeply entwined with cultural celebrations and corporate banquets. Investors have taken note of its impressive track record of revenue growth, fueled by soa...
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd. stands as a beacon of excellence in the world of premium alcoholic beverages, specifically in the production of baijiu, a traditional Chinese liquor. Founded in the late 1940s and based in the picturesque town of Maota, the company has cultivated a legacy rooted in craftsmanship and quality. Over the decades, Kweichow Moutai has transformed from a local distillery into a global powerhouse, consistently dominating the high-end liquor market. Its flagship product, Moutai, is often regarded as China’s national drink, deeply entwined with cultural celebrations and corporate banquets. Investors have taken note of its impressive track record of revenue growth, fueled by soaring demand both domestically and internationally as Chinese consumers increasingly seek premium products that signify status and tradition.
What sets Kweichow Moutai apart is not just its robust brand heritage but also its strategic vision and operational excellence. The company maintains a unique production process involving natural fermentation and extensive aging, which contributes to the distinct flavor profile that discerning consumers adore. Furthermore, Kweichow Moutai's commitment to maintaining high-quality standards has fortified its pricing power, allowing it to navigate market fluctuations with resilience. The company’s recent expansions into innovative product lines and the exploration of new markets signal a forward-thinking approach that aims to capture the evolving preferences of younger consumers. For investors, Kweichow Moutai represents a compelling opportunity that combines a prestigious heritage with promising growth potential, embodying a classic value investment in an increasingly globalized economy.
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. is one of China's leading alcoholic beverage companies, primarily known for its production of Moutai liquor, a type of baijiu (Chinese distilled spirit). The core business segments of Kweichow Moutai can be categorized as follows:
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Moutai Liquor Production: This is the primary segment and the company's flagship product. Kweichow Moutai specializes in the production of high-end baijiu, particularly its signature Moutai brand, which is often considered a luxury product both within China and internationally. This segment contributes the majority of the company's revenues.
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Sales and Distribution: Kweichow Moutai has a well-established distribution network that ensures its products reach various market segments, including retail, e-commerce, and direct sales to consumers. This segment also encompasses the marketing and branding efforts to maintain the premium positioning of Moutai.
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International Expansion: This segment focuses on increasing the brand's presence in international markets. Kweichow Moutai is working on enhancing its global footprint and targeting foreign consumers who are increasingly interested in premium alcoholic beverages.
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Research and Development: To sustain its competitive advantage, Kweichow Moutai invests in R&D for product innovation, quality control, and the development of new products, particularly in the premium liquor category. This segment also involves preserving traditional brewing techniques while exploring modern production methods.
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Cultural and Tourism Development: Given the cultural significance of baijiu in China, Kweichow Moutai is also engaged in initiatives related to cultural promotion and tourism. This includes establishing museum tours, tasting events, and cultural exhibitions that showcase the rich heritage of Moutai.
These core business segments work synergistically to bolster Kweichow Moutai's reputation as a luxury brand and its overall business performance in the competitive alcoholic beverage market. The company is known for its strong brand loyalty and premium pricing strategy, which further strengthens its market position.
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd, as one of the leading producers of baijiu (a traditional Chinese liquor), enjoys several unique competitive advantages over its rivals:
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Strong Brand Heritage: Established in 1951, Kweichow Moutai has a rich history and is often regarded as a symbol of luxury in China. Its long-standing reputation contributes significantly to customer loyalty and brand recognition.
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Premium Product Positioning: Kweichow Moutai’s products are positioned in the premium segment of the market, allowing them to command higher prices. This premium positioning attracts affluent consumers and collectors, who value exclusivity.
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Limited Supply and Unique Production Process: The production of Moutai is strictly limited, both by the natural characteristics of its production area and by government regulations. The unique fermentation and distillation techniques used are specific to the region, contributing to its distinct flavor profile that is difficult for competitors to replicate.
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Cultural Significance: Moutai is not just a beverage; it is often used in Chinese culture for toasting, gifting, and celebrating, which enhances its demand during festive occasions. This cultural significance helps maintain a steady market for the product.
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Government Support and Recognition: Being a state-recognized enterprise gives Kweichow Moutai particular prestige and support. The Chinese government promotes Moutai as a national product, which benefits its visibility and status.
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Robust Distribution Network: The company has developed a comprehensive distribution system that enables it to reach both domestic and international markets efficiently. Its well-established channels enhance its market penetration compared to many smaller competitors.
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Strong Financial Performance: Kweichow Moutai consistently reports high revenue and profit margins, allowing it to invest in marketing, R&D, and expansion, further solidifying its leading market position.
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Focus on Quality and Craftsmanship: Kweichow Moutai places a high emphasis on quality control and maintaining the traditional methods of production, which are integral to its brand identity. This commitment to quality appeals to both consumers and collectors.
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International Expansion and Awareness: While maintaining strong domestic sales, Kweichow Moutai has been proactively working on increasing its international presence, which can help diversify its revenue streams and reduce dependency on the Chinese market.
These advantages create a strong competitive moat around Kweichow Moutai, making it difficult for competitors to penetrate the market effectively.
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd, a leading Chinese producer of premium liquor, particularly its famous baijiu, faces several risks and challenges as it navigates the current market landscape. Here are some of the key risks:
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Regulatory Risks: The alcoholic beverage industry in China is subject to stringent regulations regarding production, distribution, and marketing. Changes in government policy or new regulations could adversely impact operations.
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Market Saturation: As the premium spirits market matures, the competition among high-end liquor brands may increase. This could lead to price pressures and market saturation, making it difficult for Kweichow Moutai to maintain its growth trajectory.
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Economic Slowdown: An economic downturn in China or globally could reduce consumer spending on luxury goods, including high-end liquor, affecting sales.
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Dependence on the Domestic Market: Kweichow Moutai is heavily reliant on the Chinese market. Any geopolitical tensions or economic shifts could impact domestic consumption.
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Brand Reputation Risks: As a premium brand, Kweichow Moutai must maintain its brand reputation. Any quality control issues or negative publicity could harm its brand image and consumer trust.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: The company relies on specific agricultural products for its production. Supply chain disruptions, whether from environmental factors or regulatory changes impacting production, could affect its operations.
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Changing Consumer Preferences: Shifts in consumer tastes toward different types of beverages or younger generations preferring less traditional options could impact Moutai's market share.
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Environmental Concerns: Sustainability and environmental issues are becoming more critical worldwide. Failure to address these concerns could lead to regulatory scrutiny or reduced consumer acceptance.
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Foreign Competition: As the global spirits market becomes more interconnected, Kweichow Moutai faces increased competition from international brands entering the Chinese market, potentially eroding its market share.
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Managing Growth: As Kweichow Moutai expands, maintaining the balance between growth and ensuring quality and exclusivity will be a challenge. Rapid growth might lead to operational inefficiencies or damage to brand perception.
In summary, Kweichow Moutai must strategically address these risks to sustain its market leadership and continue its growth in the face of evolving market dynamics.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
Current Assets | 232.3B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 61.5B |
Receivables | 115.7B |
Other Current Assets | 55B |
Non-Current Assets | 47B |
Long-Term Investments | 7.2B |
PP&E | 22.7B |
Intangibles | 8.9B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 8.1B |
Current Liabilities | 50.8B |
Accounts Payable | 3.3B |
Accrued Liabilities | 5.5B |
Short-Term Debt | 3B |
Other Current Liabilities | 39B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 9.8B |
Long-Term Debt | 277.4m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 9.5B |
Earnings Waterfall
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
Revenue
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163B
CNY
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Cost of Revenue
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-38.1B
CNY
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Gross Profit
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124.9B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
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-15.4B
CNY
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Operating Income
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109.5B
CNY
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Other Expenses
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-29B
CNY
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Net Income
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80.4B
CNY
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd's profitability score is 82/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd's profitability score is 82/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is 1 973.5534 CNY with a low forecast of 1 413.7273 CNY and a high forecast of 2 488.5 CNY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
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Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Kweichow Moutai Co., Ltd. engages in the operation of wine industries. The company is headquartered in Zunyi, Guizhou and currently employs 29,971 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2001-08-27. The firm's main products portfolio consists of Kweichow Mountai liquors and other liquor series, including Moutai Prince liquors, Moutai Ying Bin Chiew and Laimao liquors. The firm distributes its products within domestic market and to overseas markets.
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The intrinsic value of one Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 923.2133 CNY.
Compared to the current market price of 1 507.8199 CNY, Kweichow Moutai Co Ltd is Undervalued by 22%.