China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
SSE:600029
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one China Southern Airlines Co Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 5.34 CNY. Compared to the current market price of 6.58 CNY, China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is Overvalued by 19%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
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China Southern Airlines Co Ltd., headquartered in Guangzhou, is one of the largest airlines in Asia, cementing its position as a key player in the global aviation industry. Established in 1988, the airline has built a comprehensive network that connects travelers to over 200 destinations across more than 40 countries. With a diversified fleet of over 800 aircraft, including the latest wide-body models such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787, China Southern not only emphasizes operational efficiency but also prioritizes customer experience. As part of the China Southern Group, the airline benefits from a strategic partnership with the SkyTeam alliance, allowing it to offer seamless travel opti...
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd., headquartered in Guangzhou, is one of the largest airlines in Asia, cementing its position as a key player in the global aviation industry. Established in 1988, the airline has built a comprehensive network that connects travelers to over 200 destinations across more than 40 countries. With a diversified fleet of over 800 aircraft, including the latest wide-body models such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 787, China Southern not only emphasizes operational efficiency but also prioritizes customer experience. As part of the China Southern Group, the airline benefits from a strategic partnership with the SkyTeam alliance, allowing it to offer seamless travel options and enhanced loyalty programs to its growing base of both domestic and international passengers.
For investors, China Southern Airlines represents a compelling opportunity as the airline industry rebounds post-pandemic. The company's strong domestic market position, combined with consistent initiatives to expand international routes, reflects its strategic vision for sustainable growth. By investing in modern technology and improving operational agility, the airline is well-poised to capitalize on the resurgent demand for air travel. Moreover, with China's burgeoning middle class increasingly seeking air travel, the company's ability to adapt and innovate positions it favorably in a competitive landscape. As economic factors continue to shape the aviation industry, China Southern Airlines stands out as a resilient player, making it an attractive consideration for investors looking to tap into the growing global travel market.
China Southern Airlines Co., Ltd. (CSAir) is one of the largest airlines in China and operates a comprehensive range of business segments. The core business segments of China Southern Airlines can be broadly categorized as follows:
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Passenger Transportation: This is the primary segment of China Southern Airlines. It involves the operation of commercial flights that transport passengers domestically and internationally. The airline uses a variety of aircraft to service different routes, constantly expanding its network to enhance connectivity and market share.
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Cargo Transportation: This segment encompasses the transportation of goods and freight. China Southern Airlines operates a dedicated cargo fleet and utilizes its passenger aircraft's belly capacity for cargo services. This segment is crucial for businesses relying on air freight for time-sensitive shipments.
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Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO): CSAir provides maintenance services for its aircraft and also offers these services to third-party airlines. This segment contributes to the overall efficiency and safety of the airline’s operations while generating additional revenue.
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Airline Services: This segment includes various ancillary services offered to passengers, such as in-flight catering, ground services, and loyalty programs like the Sky Pearl Club. These services enhance the overall passenger experience and provide additional revenue opportunities.
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Travel and Tourism Services: Through partnerships and subsidiaries, CSAir provides travel agency services, including ticketing, accommodation, and tour package offerings. This segment aims to capitalize on the growing demand for travel and tourism, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
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Training and Education: China Southern Airlines also invests in training programs for pilots, cabin crew, and maintenance staff. Through its training centers, the airline ensures that its personnel are well-trained and adhere to the highest safety standards.
By diversifying its offerings across these core segments, China Southern Airlines aims to maintain a competitive edge in the rapidly evolving airline industry, ensuring robust revenue streams and long-term growth.
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd has several unique competitive advantages that help it stand out in the highly competitive airline industry. Here are a few key factors:
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Market Position and Scale: As one of the largest airlines in China, China Southern Airlines benefits from economies of scale. It operates a vast network, providing extensive domestic and international services, which enhances its operational efficiency and brand recognition.
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Strategic Hub in Guangzhou: The airline's main hub at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport positions it well for domestic and international traffic. This geographic advantage enables it to serve as a key gateway to and from southern China, attracting more passengers and cargo.
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Strong Domestic Demand: With China being one of the largest aviation markets in the world, China Southern Airlines benefits from high domestic travel demand. The rising middle class and increasing urbanization contribute to more people flying, providing a robust customer base.
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Fleet Modernization: The airline has been investing heavily in a modern, fuel-efficient fleet, with a focus on aircraft like the Airbus A350 and Boeing 787. This not only reduces operational costs but also enhances passenger comfort and service quality.
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SkyTeam Alliance Membership: Being a member of the SkyTeam alliance allows China Southern Airlines to expand its reach and provide its customers with a broader network of destinations. This partnership enhances its competitiveness by improving connectivity for passengers and cargo.
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Government Support: As a state-owned enterprise, China Southern Airlines may receive support from the Chinese government in various forms, including financial backing, regulatory advantages, and infrastructure development, which can be a significant competitive edge.
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Brand Recognition and Loyalty Programs: The airline has developed a strong brand presence in both the domestic and international markets, bolstered by loyalty programs that attract repeat customers. This brand loyalty can lead to consistent revenue streams.
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Diverse Service Offerings: China Southern Airlines provides a range of services beyond passenger flights, including cargo and freight services. This diversification can help stabilize revenue streams, especially during downturns in passenger demand.
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Innovation in Technology: The airline has been investing in technology to improve customer service, streamline operations, and enhance the overall passenger experience. Innovations such as mobile apps, self-check-in kiosks, and in-flight entertainment systems can improve customer satisfaction and operational efficiency.
These competitive advantages collectively enhance China Southern Airlines' ability to compete effectively in both domestic and international markets, positioning it favorably against its rivals in the aviation industry.
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd, like many airlines, faces a variety of risks and challenges in the near future, influenced by both external and internal factors. Here are some of the key issues:
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Global Economic Uncertainty: Fluctuations in the global economy can lead to reduced demand for air travel. Economic slowdowns can impact both leisure and business travel.
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COVID-19 Pandemic Impact: Although recovery is underway, ongoing concern about new variants or resurgences can lead to reintroduction of restrictions, affecting passenger confidence and travel patterns.
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Fuel Price Volatility: Air travel is highly sensitive to fuel prices, and any significant rise can adversely impact profit margins. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can exacerbate this volatility.
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Regulatory Changes: Compliance with national and international regulations can be complex and costly. New safety or environmental regulations could impose additional operational costs.
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Competition: Intense competition within China and globally can result in price wars, threatening profitability. Low-cost carriers continue to expand their market share.
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Geopolitical Tensions: Political relations, particularly between China and other nations, can affect international routes, travel demand, and regulatory conditions.
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Inflation and Cost Pressures: Rising costs in various operational areas (staffing, maintenance, airport fees) can impact profitability, especially if not passed on to consumers.
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Market Saturation: The domestic aviation market in China has seen rapid growth, which may lead to market saturation in certain segments, making it difficult to sustain high growth rates.
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Technological Disruption: The emergence of alternative travel modes (e.g., high-speed rail in China) can pose a threat to airline demand on certain routes.
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Environmental Concerns: Increasing emphasis on sustainability may lead to pressure for airlines to reduce their carbon footprints, necessitating investment in more fuel-efficient aircraft or alternative fuels.
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Labor Relations: The airline industry can be subject to labor strikes or disputes, particularly if employee costs rise or working conditions are perceived to worsen.
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Customer Expectations: Post-pandemic, travelers have changing expectations regarding safety, comfort, and flexibility, which airlines must adapt to meet.
Evaluating these risks involves understanding the broader economic and geopolitical landscape, consumer behavior trends, and the strategic positioning of China Southern Airlines within the competitive environment. Implementing risk management strategies will be crucial to navigating these challenges effectively.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
Current Assets | 32B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 14B |
Receivables | 8.2B |
Other Current Assets | 9.8B |
Non-Current Assets | 282.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 10.8B |
PP&E | 250.7B |
Intangibles | 7B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 14.5B |
Current Liabilities | 140.3B |
Accounts Payable | 21.4B |
Accrued Liabilities | 4.3B |
Short-Term Debt | 51.4B |
Other Current Liabilities | 63.2B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 139.2B |
Long-Term Debt | 115.1B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 24.1B |
Earnings Waterfall
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
Revenue
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175.1B
CNY
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Cost of Revenue
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-162.6B
CNY
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Gross Profit
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12.5B
CNY
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Operating Expenses
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-8.2B
CNY
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Operating Income
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4.3B
CNY
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Other Expenses
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-7.9B
CNY
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Net Income
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-3.6B
CNY
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
CNY | |
Free Cash Flow | CNY |
Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd's profitability score is 34/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd's solvency score is 23/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd's solvency score is 23/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
Price Targets Summary
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is 5.97 CNY with a low forecast of 4.34 CNY and a high forecast of 7.98 CNY.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is a CN-based company operating in Airlines industry. The company is headquartered in Guangzhou, Guangdong and currently employs 98,098 full-time employees. China Southern Airlines Company Limited is principally engaged in the operation of civil aviation, including the provision of passenger, cargo, mail delivery and other extended transportation services. The firm operates through two business segments, including Airline Transportation segment and Other segment. Airline Transportation segment consist of passenger and cargo and mail operations. Other segment includes hotel and tour operation, ground services, cargo handling and other miscellaneous services. . The firm also provides services of general aviation and aircraft maintenance. The firm acts as an agency of domestic and foreign airlines, and other aviation and related business, such as personal accident insurance and agency business.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one China Southern Airlines Co Ltd stock under the Base Case scenario is 5.34 CNY.
Compared to the current market price of 6.58 CNY, China Southern Airlines Co Ltd is Overvalued by 19%.