Schindler Holding AG

SIX:SCHP

Earnings Call Analysis

Robust Q3 Growth with Positive Outlook

Despite a challenging construction market, Q3 '23 saw order intake grow by 3.8% in local currency to CHF 2.7 billion, with aftersales service and modernization as main growth drivers, overshadowing a 3% decline in Swiss francs. The 9-month order intake reached CHF 8.6 billion, up by 1.7%, while the backlog remained flat in local currency at CHF 9.3 billion. Revenue in Q3 increased 0.9% in local currency but declined by 5.2% to CHF 2.8 billion with EMEA and Americas growing. The 9-month EBIT adjusted rose by 24.3% to CHF 917 million, and net profit soared by 43.7% to CHF 691 million, boosting the earnings per share significantly. Operating cash flow jumped by 92.6% to CHF 724 million, revealing strong operating profit and improved working capital management. The company expects a 6-8% revenue growth in local currency for the full year '23 and forecasts a net profit between CHF 880 million and CHF 910 million.

Commitment to Improved Profitability and Growth Amidst Market Challenges

The company conveyed a strong message of resilience and commitment to its targets for 2023. Improved profitability was highlighted, with the fifth consecutive quarter of enhanced bottom-line results. This positive trend is in the face of a tough market environment which still allowed the company to see improving order intake and revenue growth. The services business is growing, contributing to network density and efficiency gains. Despite increasing exchange headwinds and the precarious situation in China, there is a semblance of confidence in continuing the positive trajectory due to a balanced global footprint, a strong balance sheet providing flexibility for turbulent times, and a focus on strategic priorities.

Navigating the Complexities of the Chinese Market

The company addressed the elephant in the room – the uncertain economic climate in China. With the International Monetary Fund projecting China to remain a major contributor to global economic growth despite a deceleration in GDP growth, the company sees China as an increasingly critical market in the medium term. The domestic economy in China is picking up, but the property sector looms as a significant concern with debts amassing to USD 1.7 trillion. However, within this challenging context, the growing service and modernization market in China, and globally, heralds positive prospects, with Asia expected to lead growth up to 2030. The Americas presented mixed signals, with South America's demand being curtailed by interest rates, and North America experiencing an overall decline leading to a foreseen double-digit drop by year-end. Nonetheless, there is optimism surrounding service and modernization markets.

Robust Financial Performance and Positive Outlook for 2023

In the third quarter of 2023, the revenue declined by 5.2% to CHF 2.8 billion, which was an increase of 0.9% in local currencies. The EMEA and Americas regions continued their growth, while the Asia Pacific was stalled, primarily due to the slowdown in China. Year-to-date revenue reached CHF 8.5 billion, a local currency increase of 8.5%. The company is seeing a positive outcome from efficiency measures, pricing discipline, and supply chain recovery, resulting in EBIT adjusted to CHF 917 million, a significant increase from the previous year. The net profit saw an impressive rise of 43.7% to CHF 691 million over nine months. Operating cash flow also saw an increase of 92.6% over the same period. Riding on the coattails of these strong Q3 results, the company sharpened its full-year 2023 outlook, expecting revenue growth between 6% and 8% in local currency, and net profit anticipated to be between CHF 880 million and CHF 910 million.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Schindler Conference Call on the Q3 Results 2023. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.

At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Marco Knuchel, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

[Marco Knuchel, executive]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our third quarter results presentation. My name is Marco Knuchel, I'm heading Investor Relations at Schindler. I'm here together with Silvio Napoli, our Chairman and CEO; and Ms. Carla De Geyseleer, our CFO. Silvio will start his presentation with a progress update, followed by an overview of the development of the various markets. Carla then will lead you through the financials.

After the presentation, we are happy to take your questions. Today, we plan to close the session at around 11:00. With that, I'm happy to hand over to Silvio. Silvio, please go ahead.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Thank you, Marco. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for your time for joining us today for our Q3 results.

Starting with our introduction. In January '22, we said we would fix the issues we were confronted with. And today, we are delivering on this commitment, and I'm pleased to confirm that we will deliver on the targets for 2023. Now our headline which for today is on track to deliver, you can say on track to deliver on our commitments. But what does that mean exactly? So we have here a summary slide, I'm on Slide 3 here, which provides a few of the headlines.

First of all, it means improved profitability, where for now the fifth quarter in a row, we provide an improvement in our bottom line results. Delivering our commitment also means improving the order intake and revenue growth against tough market environment. Delivering commitments also means a growing service business, which then leads to network density, which in turn these efficiency gains. We'll come to that as part of the CFO presentation.

Now we are also confident to continue on this trajectory in spite of intensifying exchange headwinds. Actually, the figures are becoming quite [indiscernible]. It also means that we are confident to continue on this trajectory because of our balanced global footprint, which we'll see to, especially in relation to the situation in China.

And also, we are confident to continue because of a strong balance sheet, which will provide strength and flexibility ahead of the turbulent times in the geopolitical and macroeconomic situations.

So overall, I think we are really confident to continue on this trajectory. Thanks to the focus on our strategic priorities and on the disciplined execution that some of you have seen in your report referred to as self-help.

And that all will bring continued also on a continued trajectory also in terms of net profit, earnings per share and cash flow uptake, that we have delivered so far.

Now moving on to the market update. And now allow me here today, I'd like to take a bit of a different format because, before we address the market itself, I wanted to address the question that seems to be on everyone's mind. Interestingly, this is a question that does not directly relate to Schindler, in fact, not even to the elevator and escalator market. And the question is China.

So having read your reports and addressed some of your questions in meetings we had the pleasure to have together, it is clear that the situation in China is like a cloud overhanging anything we do. So let's talk about China. And let's talk to something which normally don't do, we speak about -- a bit about macroeconomics, but as it happens, the IMF or the economic outlook we just published in October. And this is some data that you can find on this report.

And the first finding there is that, in fact, yes, in spite of the slowdown, China will be the largest contributor to the global economy growth in '24, '28. So you can see here on the top line chart that the GDP in China will continue to decline. However, even for the 4 years to come, we talk about 3.9%, but the slowdown will continue. Interesting, if you look at this, you can see that even with the slowdown in China, we will still be the third highest of the GDP growth during the period.

But then if you look at the bottom chart, you see that in terms of value addition to the world economy, China with about $1.2 trillion will be the largest contributor to the world economy in terms of value. So what does it mean? It means that, yes, the risk profile in China has increased. Yes, growth has to be managed in a different way. But nonetheless, the China as a market, China as a margin generator, will continue to be predominant, if anything, even more important than ever in the midterm.

Now I was in China last week with some of my colleagues here. And I can confirm that the domestic economy, the industrial activity is picking up in line also with the announcement yesterday of the GDP growth for the third quarter, which speaks about 4.9%.

And now let's move on to the next slide. Because clearly, having said that, there is no question that the property situation in China is a huge problem. When one talks about USD 1.7 trillion of debt related to property, it is clear we don't talk only about a China problem, it is a global issue. But what does that mean for the global NI prospects? Is the NI global demand going to evaporate because of China?

And I wanted to stress the answer is no. And here, I thought I was going to put to -- we put together some data here to show how the global housing deficit by itself, there are other factors, will continue to fuel future residential demand in this case. And yes, China has a current oversupply, which you see on the left-hand chart, which is at a staggering figure of 72 million units of dwellings. But on the other hand, you see on the same chart that you have countries like India, which has a 34 million deficit; Indonesia 13 million; Brazil 7 million; Philippines 6.6 million; U.S. 6 million; U.K. 4 million deficit; Egypt, 3 million; Mexico 2.2 million; Germany 0.7 million. So it is important to keep this balanced view.

And then what does that mean, of course, since we are a company in the probably so in the elevator and escalator business? You can see on the right-hand side, we took a shot that approximating, based on conversion factors here, what does it mean in terms of elevator and escalator demand. And you can see that the figures are huge. So India only would be 1.8 million units, against today's market which is less than 100,000. You will see Indonesia 320,000, Brazil under 30,000, et cetera, et cetera.

So in conclusion, the NI business, regardless of what's going to happen in China, and we'll come to that, will continue to grow worldwide. Now NI market, of course, but moving on to Page 7, so NI, of course, what we talk about most of the time, we shouldn't forget that our strategic choice, which I presented to you all, is to drive portfolio density.

And what is the outlook for the elevator and escalator service market? And then you see that on this Pareto chart we put there, based on the 2022 installed base, but also combined with the CAGR. The global service market is to outgrow the new installation one with a CAGR estimated until 2030 of about 5.8%. And what are the key contributors until the end of decade? And you can see basically all markets will grow, but especially the ones in Asia.

As these countries transition from NI to EI market, as we discussed last time just the way it happened in Europe, in the U.S. and in other mature markets, over periods of time. Arguably here, Asia being Asia, this is going to happen faster than ever. And you can see that there, China itself will have a CAGR until the end of decade of 5.8%. And it will not even be the fastest. The fastest, the biggest would be India with 9.4% followed first by Southeast Asia at 4.8%.

So you can see that we talk here about a very, I'm going to say, solid, if not exciting prospect, for the service market.

Now that we have provided you a context, let's indeed have a look at our market update in the more traditional format that we've had. And of course, there, we have to acknowledge the NI market is contracting, while the service and modernization remains strong, very strong. And looking at the NI market, let's maybe focus first on the 2 changes versus our latest report in Q2.

And these are APAC, which is through China here, where you see that, unfortunately there, we have a change with a low single-digit drop against a strong growth in India, but driven mainly by South Korea, and weakening in Southeast Asia, which, of course, is tightly related to the situation also in China.

The other, I must say notable downgrade based on our market data, is the Americas, where it's a different situation North and South. In South America, the growing demand is there, we'll discuss for Brazil in a second, but there is more a question of supply slowdown because of the interest rate situation. But in North America, there, there is an overall decline we discussed about the U.S., which overall brings to a double-digit decline foreseen until year-end.

Now on the other hand, I'd like to stress again the modernization and service markets remain very strong, with high single-digit growth, as we just saw, consistently with the data we presented. Now this whole picture, in fact, I wanted to stress look at the right-hand side of the chart is good news for Schindler somehow. Of course, we wish we were growing also in NI. But the -- our revenue generation is relying even more so on the service and modernization, hence, the current situation sets us on a solid path going forward.

Now as we traditionally do, let's spend a moment on a few key markets. First of all, China, where I'm afraid, again, the situation is such that we don't see any return to growth in the short term. Construction industry KPIs are still trending down. The housing inventories are increasing.

And now, newly, we would see -- you see there on the bottom right-hand side chart. We've now even found this data from the National Bureau of Statistics, about funds available to developers. And those are further increasing, and really to their situation, I'd like to stress in China, is mainly one that is driven by the liquidity situation. Otherwise, other indicators too, floor space started, is declining for the fourth consecutive year. Floor space under construction, a key leading indicator for us, is also down year-to-date 7%.

And what is possibly more concerning is the housing inventory in lower cities picking up again, even though even in Tier 1 cities, the trend, even though we're still not at the same level of alert, is also worsening.

But moving on to the next chart, I'd like to stress again on year-end, the EI transition to service and modernization continues to proceed. And so you can see that the China service and modernization markets continue to be strong. And China also in terms of global presence service will be, by 2030, about half of the world modernization market.

Now what does that mean for us? And this is going to be my final point here on China. If you can move to Page 11. You would see that we wanted to illustrate here what assumed as real exposure to be downturn in new installation in China. And while we obviously remain committed to China and we believe there is a lot of value, understanding this is a concern from an investor point of view, I wanted here to illustrate that a -- how our balanced global footprint limits our exposure to the China downturn today.

And we always had this idea that we want to produce where we have a market and of course where there is enough scale to manufacturing. And this approach is paying off today, because as you can see here, we have factories in Northern America. We have factories in Europe. We have factories in South Asia, in India, and of course, we have very strong effective factories in China.

But you can see that, with that layout, our revenue from China is less than 1/6 of the total global revenues. Our factories in China are mainly dedicated to the domestic market, in the order of 90%. And even if you look at the exposure of our global resources in China versus world requirement, and you take R&D as a proxy. You can see that R&D cost in China is approximately 50% of global. In other words, we have R&D resources all around the world that are not only dependent on the situation in China.

But let's move on now that we've now set up this picture on China, of course, we are happy to address any questions as we go forward, the situation in other markets. I mentioned the downgrade of the U.S. NI market, and you can see here we have actually, this week, new figures being published. As a matter of fact, the ABI, Architecture Billing Index, which refers to all type of construction, was published yesterday. And you see now we have for September 44.8, which is in fact the lowest ABI since December 2020, which was in the middle of the pandemic.

And all regions are down. And in terms of sectors, the only one which is above 50, i.e., still growing, with a score of 50.1, is institutional. Otherwise, everything else is less than 50, including multifamily residential, that was the driving factor in the U.S. for some times, the multi-family residential ABI is 43.5.

Building permits are also down, and Dodge Momentum, which refers to nonresidential, showed a bit of a pickup renewed, but still overall trend since the beginning of the year is down. And that's important, and I would say, notable to report.

Now staying on the American continent, 2 weeks ago, I happened to be in Brazil, and meeting customers I always try to do. I was impressed by their very positive market outlook. And this is not only driven by the economy, which is back on track, but also by the more specific things like inflation, I would say now, people are very proud to say that they never thought they would live in a moment where the inflation in Brazil will be lower than in Germany, or in the U.S. for that matter. But that, of course, translates then in a construction output. And most of all, outlook that is very strong, as you can see on the projections on the right-hand side. And this, of course, will drive NI demand going forward.

Moving on to India. And this is really the most exciting prospect of all. Is it new? No. But if anything, it's accelerating on the back of the strong economic growth in China. And I must admit this is a country, I particularly relate to because I was blessed to start a business there 25 years ago. By the way, an anniversary we are about to celebrate when I travel there next month.

And you can see, so India is by far the biggest and high-growth opportunity for the years to come, driven by urbanization, by population growth. And today, India is already the second largest market worldwide. But you can see, if you look at the trend of the housing units you see on the left-hand side, where you have plus 18% year-on-year new housing projects launched, sales of homes plus 5.8%, one can be definitely keen to assess the prospects, which then can be, from our guess by the right-hand side chart, is elevator density about installed units per 1,000 inhabitants.

We sure that if this continues, if China continues progressing towards the same density per 1,000 inhabitants that we have in China, i.e., from 0.5 million today to about 7 million in China, that only would mean 9 million units of elevators and escalators added, only this was to happen. And the question is not if this is going to happen; the question is how quickly this will happen. And those 9 million units are on top of the 1.8 million due to the current deficit that we analyzed before.

So I'm pleased to say that today we are leaders in India, which is a remarkable thing that we were zero 25 years ago. We have a strong portfolio with a top team, and it is growing, and of course, refractories.

So before I conclude here my section, maybe key messages. We are delivering. Yes, the markets are down, but there are strong opportunities emerging in spite of the situation in China. The service and modernization markets are very strong and continue to grow. And the setup of the revenue structure and the balanced manufacturing, plus the strong balance sheet provide Schindler with a solid position for the times ahead.

With that, I'd like to pass the word to our CFO, Carla De Geyseleer. Please.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Thank you, Silvio. Good morning to all of you. So happy to continue the story and happy to confirm that we are really on track to deliver on our commitments. We generated in Q3 a solid set of results in what Silvio described already in an increasingly challenging construction market while dealing also with tough foreign exchange headwinds.

And now referring to foreign exchange headwinds, let me turn your attention here to Slide 16. Because on this slide, we indicate the weakening of the major currencies against the Swiss franc, and that's since 2008. Now over that period, revenue has been affected by CHF 4.5 billion and EBIT by CHF 580 million. So this year, year-to-date, the negative FX impact amount to CHF 480 million on revenue and CHF 52 million on EBIT.

Now what can we do about this FX impact? Not a lot. As you all know, that the first majority of these losses are simply due to translation effects that we cannot influence. But obviously, going forward, we will continue to focus on what we can influence, and that is definitely the disciplined execution of our measures, which is clearly yielding results.

Now in line with expectations, pricing efficiency effects continue to outgrow inflation. And here on Slide 17, it shows clearly that the efficiency offsets inflation year-to-date, and we expect the relative rate of efficiency measures versus pricing to increase.

Now on Slide 18, there we provide you with an overview on the new installation order intake and the backlog margin development. And on the left-hand side, you see that the new installation order intake margin has been continuing its upward trend, while we consistently reduced our legacy backlog.

About 70% of the initial dilutive backlog will be consumed by year-end. But what is very encouraging is the development of the new installation backlog margin -- okay, quarter-on-quarter, it remains stable, but it is definitely a nice year-on-year improvement. And it's important to realize that we expect that to continue because the order intake margin is clearly increasing.

Now going to Slide 19, there we have actually a snapshot of the key indicators, providing evidence here that we are on track to deliver on our commitments. And following already an exceptionally strong second quarter, we continue to improve our performance year-on-year now in quarter 3. And you see that here with the major indicators, order intake revenue both were up in local currencies. Secondly, operating results further improved, driven by operational efficiency gains, but also the supply chain recovery and positive pricing effects.

Thirdly, cash flow from operating activities almost doubled. And finally, the net profit printed a significant year-on-year improvement, reaching our margin of 8.1%.

Now since I will discuss the P&L items in detail, I would like to move -- later -- I would like to move to Slide 22, showing our balance sheet. And honestly, I really dare to say that our balance sheet is one of the strongest in the industry.

We have now an equity ratio that is standing at 40.8%, and we have a net liquidity of CHF 2.8 billion. So that provides a high degree of strength and flexibility. And I believe that these are 2 very important factors in a world of elevated interest rates and in an increasingly uncertain environment.

Now moving to the order intake. In the third quarter of '23, what you see here on the left-hand side of the slide, order intake grew by 3.8% in local currency, and this against a tough construction market environment and an increasingly higher comparable base to CHF 2.7 billion. Now the aftersales market, namely service and modernization, they are the main driver for the positive development.

New installations declined, and now in Swiss francs, order intake declined by 3%. Organic growth reached CHF 94 million. Acquisitions added CHF 11 million, more than absorbing the staggering CHF 188 million negative impact from currency headwinds.

Now moving to the right-hand side of the slide, showing the order intake for the 9 months of '23. Order intake reached CHF 8.6 billion, corresponding to an increase of 1.7% in local currencies. New installation orders declined, though less than the overall market. And modernization grew marginally while service continued to grow across all regions driven by mid-single-digit unit growth and pricing. Also positive is the fact that the number of connected units in percent of the total maintained portfolio crossed the 30% mark.

Now order intake margin continued to grow. I mentioned that already. So organic growth was 1.2%. Acquisitions contributed 0.5 percentage points. And the FX had a negative impact of 5.9% to growth, an equivalent of CHF 525 million on the year-to-date order intake.

Now compared to year-end, the order backlog decreased by 2.4% to CHF 9.3 billion, and that is equivalent to more than one year of new installation, modernization and repair business. In local currency, the order backlog remained flat.

Now, let me now move on to the revenue development, Page 25. Again, on the left-hand side, the third quarter of '23, you see there that the revenue declined by 5.2% to CHF 2.8 billion, corresponding to an increase of 0.9% in local currencies. Both regions, EMEA and Americas, they continued on the growth path, while Asia Pacific stalled mainly due to a slowdown in the Chinese construction activities and, not to forget, a higher comparable base last year. New installations were negative, but the modernization and the service boards were up.

Looking at the right-hand side of the slide, revenue year-to-date reached CHF 8.5 billion, equivalent to an increase of 2.7%, 8.5% in local currency. Now with a solid growth here across all regions and product lines. Organic growth reached 7.9%, acquisitions added 0.6 percentage points, while the FX had a negative impact of 5.8 percentage points to growth, so that is an equivalent of CHF 480 million.

Now moving to the next slide where you see the development of the EBIT adjusted and EBIT, and of course, it's a very positive development. I'm very pleased here to share that the positive year-on-year performance trajectory continued and that our implemented measures with respect to efficiency, pricing discipline, but also the procurement savings, clearly supported by supply chain recovery or yielding results, and are now more than offsetting the impact of the inflationary pressure.

Moving to the next slide. So for the 9 months of '23, the operational measures resulted in a CHF 231 million improvement. And foreign currency, I repeat, had a negative impact of CHF 52 million. EBIT adjusted reached CHF 917 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.3%, 31.6% in local currencies. And our margin increased by 1.8 percentage points to 10.7%.

Now looking at EBIT, the EBIT increased by 36.2% to CHF 892 million, supplemented by the land sale of our former factory in Suzhou, China, which added a one-off gain of CHF 32 million, and obviously there are also less expenses for top speed and restructuring costs. Now we closed the year-to-date EBIT margin at a level of 10.5%, equivalent to an increase of 2.6 percentage points.

Now moving to the net profit. Net profit reached CHF 228 million in the third quarter, and that is an equivalent of 23.2%. And for the 9 months of '23, our net profit was up by 43.7% and reached CHF 691 million. Now obviously, in line with the net profit growth, earnings per share increased to CHF 5.96 per share for the 9 months and to CHF 1.97 per share for the third quarter.

Now moving on to the cash flow. Very positive to share the operating cash flow development. So cash flow from operating activities increased to CHF 203 million in the third quarter and to CHF 724 million for the 9 months of '23. That is an equivalent to an increase of 92.6%, obviously driven by the solid increase of operating profit, but also lower net working capital requirements.

Now I would like to mention here that our bad debt allowance are increasing due to worsening financial conditions of Chinese real estate developers. However, we were able to mitigate the impact on EBIT, thanks to our disciplined credit risk assessment.

Now let me conclude the story with the outlook for '23, clearly, on the back of the solid Q3 results. And I mentioned clearly that we are going to continue to focus on what we can influence. And as you see here on the right-hand side, it is clearly an overview of our strategic priorities where we will continue to focus on. And we expect also those measures to result in a continued positive EBIT margin trajectory going forward.

With respect to the outlook for the full year '23, we sharpened our outlook. And so bearing unexpected event, we now expect revenue growth development between 6% and 8% in local currency, and we expect a net profit between CHF 880 million and CHF 910 million. That is an equivalent to a year-on-year increase between 34% and 38%, respectively.

Now before I finish, allow me to say that together with Silvio and together with my colleagues in the Executive Committee, we are proud on our achievements today, and it's clear that this could not have been possible without the ongoing persistent commitment of thousands of people in more than 100 markets. So a big thank you to the colleagues all over the world for their outstanding contributions to these good results.

And with that, I hand back to Marco.

[Marco Knuchel, executive]

Thank you, Carla. Now we are happy to take your questions. In view of the limited time we have available, I, as usual, ask you to limit yourself to 2 questions only.

And with that, I would like to hand over back to Sandra. Sandra, please.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]

The first question comes from Andrew Wilson from JPMorgan.

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

I've got 2 slightly different but both on the numbers. Can I start with a question just to try and better understand, on Slide 18, the chart which shows the new installations order backlog margin and the sequential development. Because I think it was described that the new order intake on new installations, the margin was improving.

But if I look at the sequential development, given that you're executing some of the old legacy backlog, which is presumably weaker margin, I would have thought that, sequentially, if you're bringing in better margin work at the same time as taking out lower margin work, that actually that sequential development would look more like what we've seen in the last 3 quarters and what we see now because it would seem to imply that the margins on the new work are only as good as the backlog which is being executed of which -- some of which we know is legacy lower margin. So maybe if we can start there and help me understand that.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Thank you, Andrew. Carla, of course, we understand it's a legitimate question, Carla, please go ahead.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes. Thank you for the question, and it's indeed what first sight, what you would expect. First of all, I confirm that the order intake margin is increasing. But what is also important to understand is that the backlog is going beyond the one year's backlog. So I mean, some of the projects that cover a very long period. And that means that the order intake is a relatively small part of the overall backlog. That is number 2.

What is also important to understand is that before the period, before 2020, we had an intake actually of, I would say, profitable business. Then the dilutive margin intake started from 2020, actually. And then, of course, it's depending on what projects are getting finalized and the size of this project. So it's also related to what is going out of the base and what is actually coming in and the relative weight of these new projects into the base. But it is clear that with a healthy order intake, that the margin development in the base should further improve. Does that answer your question?

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

Yes. If I can maybe just a quick follow-up to that. Presumably, on that explanation, we should, all else being equal and assuming that the margin is going to continue to improve, relative to the backlog at least, once you've kind of executed some of this better work, which is older, you move into more of the legacy backlog, which is difficult. Next quarter and the coming quarters, we should probably see this same chart. If we do see it, should probably be back in more positive territory. Just to check that I'm understanding that right.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes, we will definitely be back in positive territory. You see also in the middle graph that we are moving on with the consumption of this dilutive backlog. And what we should also not forget is that we are improving when it comes to efficiency and productivity. And you saw that also on an earlier slide, our efficiency currently is already offsetting inflation, but that will also help in the execution of some of these projects.

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

That's very helpful. And maybe if I can, for my second question, ask around just in terms of the margin improvement. If we kind of talk to consensus at around, let's call it, 11% round numbers, you can kind of back out, I guess, from the guidance as well. So let's say, 11% for this year, and that of compares to the 11% or so that we were doing in kind of '20 and '21, and obviously, you've had the dip in the middle.

And I guess, 2 sort of things I'd like to try and better understand this. When you think about kind of the journey from 11% to 9% and then back to 11%, how much of that is simply price cost and what we obviously have understood to be challenges because of the lag in that dynamic? And how much is genuine improvement within the business? I'm obviously thinking about the trajectory for next year and how much more we have to go for.

And I guess linked to that, when you look at the backlog margin today, how does that compare to the margin which is going through the income statement currently?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes. So I'll think the first part of your question first. You saw that also on Slide 17. First of all, the efficiency is picking up. So if you compare that, for instance, with the prior quarters and we compare the relative rate of efficiency versus pricing, we always said that efficiency was reaching max 1/3. Now that is changing gradually, and we are, let's say, already reaching a level of 50%, 50%, but you see it also on the slide, even the efficiency is already completely outweighing the inflation. So that means also that we become less and less dependent on the pricing effect. That is number one.

Number two, when we talk about efficiency, that is obviously the combination of real productivity improvements, but of course, that hangs also together with the recovery of the supply chain. And it is, of course, very difficult to make the split. But because of the measures that we have put in place, but also are still putting in place because, obviously, we continue, I mean, we are very convinced that beyond the recovery of the supply chain, we continue to further improve the efficiency. And that is, for us, one of the strong underlying, I would say, elements that is fueling the positive outlook going forward. Did I forget?

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

Sorry, just the final bit, just in terms of where the order backlog margin is today versus the income statement margin that you're printing currently?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes. Obviously, I mean, the order -- as I said, given where the order backlog margin, I don't think we need to necessarily compare it with a build rather than with the order intake margin. And there is quite, I would say, a significant difference, what comes in now, in terms of margin than what is in the order on hand. Because don't forget, I mean, what we execute, because of the plant efficiencies, et cetera, will anyway result also in a positive build margin.

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

But you don't want to quantify the gap between the backlog margin and the income statement?

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

We can say it's higher, it's improving, Andrew. I understand your question. Please bear with us, we are -- not only because it's an evolving improvement, but we don't show this detail.

[Andrew Wilson, analyst]

Thank you and thank you for the patience on the questions, I appreciate that.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Well, the question is easy to understand, and thank you for your understanding and us not maybe disclosing it all. Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Klas Bergelind from Citi.

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

So first, looking into the margin and thinking about Americas. I mean you are guiding lower for Americas new installations. But Isn't that mix positive to the margin for you, Silvio given that NI margins are typically lowest outside of China? And then you have the legacy backlog on wide on top of that. I was trying to gauge to what extent that Americas NI downgrade really is a very negative for you. I don't really see it as such. And so thoughts there on Americas. And how much of the group are we talking about? And what are the customers telling you outside that what we can see from the weak ABI that we got yesterday. I'll start here.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Thank you. It's a very good question. Indeed, if you look at today's situation, I would say, over the last 3 years, it is fair to say that the margin in the U.S. were not satisfactory in our view. So while we are working hard to make sure that they improve, including preparing the launch of new products, we'll discuss maybe some of it during the Technology Day here. Today, your assessment is correct. On the other hand, we intend to remain one of the leading companies in our industry. So we definitely want to grow in the U.S. where we have room to grow, because there are some segments where we have never been that competitive because we don't have the products.

So today, the situation is right, at least for our situation. But in the past, I would say we did have also quite good margin in the U.S. So back a bit to the situation, as I mentioned, indeed, over the last 3 years, the situation has been unfortunately a bit marked because the margins were going down. But as we speak, they are picking up again. So this downturn now maybe doesn't come on the word possible time for us. But we are keen, as always -- in my career in the U.S., there are always these downturns that come up and down. And they always come down.

So this -- we then had a very long cycle the last time until probably did 2 years ago, then it started picking up again, and it goes down. It's not overall concerning, but our challenge, our objective and resolve is that when the market picks up again, we are ready. And even if it was continue to down through our segments, I insist, multifamily midrise typically where we definitely can grow regardless of any market downturn with the result to have higher margins.

Now second part of your -- what customers tell us. I was there last in the summer and going back there again in a couple of weeks. There is -- I think today, based everyone we talk to, everyone confirms that, at the moment, it's going down. But everyone is just waiting for the situation to improve.

There is here at the moment 2 elements here. One has been probably overbuilt in some cities and in some parts of the construction. The other point is labor scarcity. Labor scarcity is a major issue. Then there are some cities where indeed there has also been maybe another issue related to empty space, which then provides opportunity for modernization.

So today, there is no sense of panic whatsoever, more a type of acknowledgment and wait and see for this to pick up again.

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

Thank you, Silvio. My second one is on the operational gearing in the quarter. I mean China sales is down quite a bit like I expected. I guess we no longer have the support to the same extent from completions and the comp is tougher and we have the weaker backlog. With China sales falling like this, and turning away from Americas into China here, that's mix negative for you, right, in the quarter, given that NI margin in China is typically higher than in the rest of the world. So it means that if we didn't have that China decline in the P&L, I'm just trying to understand how much better the margin would have been?

And also, Carla, if you could say how much pricing you have in the P&L and how much roadmaps you had, that would be really helpful. Sorry, that was a lot of questions in one, but thank you.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Start with the first part. Yes, the margin in China are higher than the rest -- than the other parts of the world, in particular, because of the combination between field operations and supply chain because the scale is such that if you run new supply chain well and, definitely, we are improving there. In fact, NI here, we don't give specific numbers, but it is fair to say that even though the market is going down, we have not been going down in China.

So the net effect so far for us, and possibly you can say, and let's be very humble here, the fact that we had lost some ground in market share over the last 3 years was a handicap now could become a blessing in disguise because then, of course, it gives us room to grow even as the market declines. And by the way, we are launching a new product line made in China for China next month, which again suggests how we feel about the situation in China with the resolve to, no excuse, keep going forward, and we believe we do have opportunities to continue growing in China regardless of the current situation.

In fact, possibly on the back. And why is also that, let me just add maybe another, is that we have always been very disciplined in terms of payment terms. So of course, the pressure is tremendous. But now probably the understanding of some customers that we have to be rigid on that, even though they may be struggling, then obviously that opens up probably more opportunities for companies that are more strict like us.

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

Yes. I mean , I know that you're outgrowing the market in orders, which is great to see. I just mean when I back out the quarter from the 9 months on revenues, it looks like China is down quite a bit from sort of legacy backlog, right, from last year's orders? That was a mix negative on the margin, right?

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

No, I don't see that we actually -- we're not down on revenue for China. Last year, the base effect when we -- okay, I understand what you want to say. Last year, third, in particular, fourth quarter in China, was a big somehow post-COVID recovery moment. So the base effect in China there was huge. And so it is this year, to outgrow last quarter -- the last 2 quarters, last year in China. And I'm pleased to say we are hanging in there. But last year was abnormally high in China. And so the deal that for us is to continue growing regardless of this base effect. Does that answer your question?

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

Yes, absolutely. I know everything about the beta. It was just on Slide 25, when you back out the 1 plus either quarter, it looks like you're down in the quarter year-over-year in China sales. But yes, I can take away Marco later.

And then the very final one, Carla, on pricing in the P&L and also roadmaps, if you have it, that would be very, very good.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

On China or overall?

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

Overall, sorry. Yes.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

yes. All right. So when we come to the pricing overall, if you look at the evolution, it is, as I said, on a year-to-date basis, more or less equivalent with the efficiencies. So that is, in terms of relative weight, as I said, quite a change in obviously in a positive direction because it is definitely our goal to further improve the efficiencies and the productivity.

[Klas Bergelind, analyst]

And roadmaps in the quarter?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

And in the quarter, absolutely, the more or less the same comparison, yes, for the quarter.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Aurelio Calderon from Morgan Stanley.

[Aurelio Calderon Tejedor, analyst]

I guess the first question is, picking up on one of your comments, Carla, on FX, which obviously has been a big headwind for revenues and EBIT. But if I look at the margin impact, it looks like you've done a pretty good job on reducing your cost base in Switzerland, I would imagine. So just curious to know what you're doing in terms of making sure you don't have that transactional impact, if you wish a whole translation on that?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes. We definitely are focusing on the cost base in Switzerland. That is an ongoing one, and we really optimize, I would say, also on the natural hedging in terms of, yes, of putting [indiscernible] with everything we source. And if you look at pure the cost base here in Switzerland, which actually comes down, mainly to people, we are less than 1% of the total cost.

[Aurelio Calderon Tejedor, analyst]

And second question is a bit of a broader question, which is, obviously, we talk about the margins in the backlog, the margins in order intake and so on. I guess the question is, what gives you confidence that those margins are sustainable, either we're not going to see an erosion in backlog margins. Is it because you have just better knowledge of the projects that you're bringing in? It's because you're hedging the kind of exposure to the suppliers earlier because you have indexation. What gives you that confidence that we can continue to see ongoing improvements in the P&L, and we're not going to see an erosion in those backlog margins?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

First of all, because we, as you said, strongly focused on bringing in profitable projects, and we really shortened to the governance and so in order not to fall into the trap of, I would say, focusing more on volume than on margin. That is number one.

And then secondly, as we continue to work on our cost structure and bringing more productivity and efficiency, obviously, that is an important one going forward. And then related to that, we touched already on it, obviously, we are recovering strongly on our supply chain, that we still have a bit of room to go. And it is not only a question of productivity and efficiency, but we are also becoming better, I would say, when it comes to the procurement savings. And so gradually, we are also getting results in that area. So it is actually a combination.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

And maybe building on Carla's comments if I may, to look at it from a field operation point of view, I would say, 4 points, Aurelio. Pricing discipline, efficiency, new sales tools. And those sales tools include new aspects like the Configurator that salespeople use in order to decide how to sell projects that are in the sweet spot in terms of customer demand, but also in terms of profitability, in terms of supply chain and scale effects. And also all the flying instruments that combine not only the margin in the field operation, but also in the supply chain, and equally to look at market conditions on a real-time basis.

Finally, and hopefully we'll have pleasure to show it tomorrow, new products. We are introducing new products who are exactly meant to make sure we finally get this modularity platform, which then will create simplicity, fast to market, better quality for the customer, but also scale effect in a factory. So as we transition, this is absolutely key.

And of course, the idea is to phase out all the old products like we've been doing. And all in all, we're doing everything, I would say, in our power to make sure that we don't repeat the mistakes of the past, i.e. amongst other benefits, keeping the backlog not only stable but actually improving in terms of margin.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Zhang Yifan from Goldman Sachs.

[Daniela Costa, analyst]

It's actually Daniela here. I'll ask just one given the timing. But very clear how you see the margin trajectory going forward, but I wanted to explore cash conversion as well because I realized you mentioned some bad debt commentary increasing in China.

And I assume, given the underlying end-market has deteriorated and you still want to get to your margin targets, whether there's more cost of restructuring that you need to book upfront. So should we think about an improving cash conversion or along with the margins? Or are there any near-term impacts that we need to be aware of from a cash perspective?

And then maybe the segue into that, why would it be a bad idea to propose to the Board a buyback, for example, given your cash position?

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Okay. So let me maybe, before I pass on the word to on Q4 definitely, the market is such that the weather report being what it is, we need [indiscernible] and building on our commitment to deliver improved profitability, this will also involve restructuring costs in Q4. So that is definitely the case. And our outlook that you saw there definitely account for that. Carla, is there anything you'd like to add? On the Q4 restructuring...

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Not on the Q4 restructuring. That's correct. But maybe already going beyond year-end, it is clear that it is also our goal to further improve the net working capital. You have seen the evolution. It is not a secret. We are not particularly proud on that piece or at least I am not particularly proud. So we definitely need to improve that also going forward. So from a cash conversion perspective, definitely should further improve because of the further uptick of the profitability, and it is definitely for me a priority to improve the net working capital going forward.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Daniela, your last question on the buyback. These are the questions that we discuss with the Board. The evolution of all aspects, of course, bringing this question on the general regular basis, there is nothing more I can say at this stage. But your point is taken.

[Operator]

The last question for today's call comes from Martin Flueckiger from Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Martin Flueckiger, analyst]

I've got 2. Firstly, I was just wondering whether you could elaborate a little bit on the main drivers for your new installation order intake growth in China in Q3 and how you think you fared versus the market? That would be my first question.

And the second question is, could you provide us with an update on the, I suppose, tailwind that you're expecting from raw material and freight costs in 2023?

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

Thank you, Martin, for the question. Let me take the first, Carla will take the second. In China, the market is going down. And I think broadly, I would say, if you compare it to '21, which was the peak time, it will go on by the end of this year down by about 30%. This year, the drop will be, depending on how you look at this, probably another, let's say, double digit, low single digits depending on how you see this, right?

Well, I'm pleased to say that this year, and of course, there is also some base effect there I have to recognize because last year we were based in Shanghai, which were the worst on all, but nonetheless, everything we do this year, we are not declining in China. As a matter of fact, I like to confirm it in being there, we're actually increasing. So not to say out how much, we don't speak about the market share.

And what is driving this? Okay, there is a base effect, point one. But also I would say we now have, as we've done in the other parts of the world, but in China, we have a new team in place, first of all. Second, we have a new, more disciplined approach to sales. We have reduced our cost. We have a very strong supply chain, and this never faulted even in the worst time.

And of course, but then that combined with new product launches that are happening, as I mentioned before, that all of that allows us to position ourselves in parts of the market where we have room to grow. Clearly, this involves a lot of discipline in terms of pricing, in terms of payment conditions, and in terms also of deciding which pockets we want to tackle.

This is all, to some extent, also work in progress. And I'd like to stress, it is Schindler China combined with our dual brands, we also are able to operate actually in even tougher parts of the market because they are more in the tier 2, 3, 4, 5 city. And I must say I'm very impressed how the they managed to perform in adversity.

So it's a whole set of things, which we maybe may elaborating more when we speak about our plans for next year when we speak again in February.

Second part of the question?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Yes. Okay. I complement with respect, I would say, to the procurement savings and the effect of the raw materials decrease that we have seen over the prior period, that is already, I would say, more or less to a big degree in the run rate of quarter 3. There is still a bit to come, but I would say that the major part is in the run rate of quarter 3.

Now obviously, that is just a raw material piece. What is definitely further increasing or the overall procurement savings and the effect they have on the bottom line. And we expect that also, I would say, to further increase in net in quarter 4. Does that answer the question?

[Martin Flueckiger, analyst]

Well, I was wondering whether you could provide a number as the tailwind for this year, whether we're looking at 50 million, 100 million, 150 million ballpark numbers?

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

On the -- if I just take on the -- maybe because you would like to have the total headwinds, I guess, and the total tailwinds.

[Marco Knuchel, executive]

Martin, just a second. So the total tailwinds, if we look at the whole thing in detail, we are talking about tailwinds that the pricing impact or the pricing effect we have, we have the volume and mix, and then the material including the purchasing savings Carla mentioned. And altogether amounts to roughly CHF 400 million. For the 9 months.

[Silvio Napoli, executive]

So thank you very much. And let me add one point. I look forward to seeing some of you to our Technology Day starting this afternoon. Thanks a lot for considering coming, and thanks for your great questions, again, once more to also help foresee our business from the views of experts like yourself.

[Marco Knuchel, executive]

And we would like to close now. Please feel free to reach out to me for any follow-ups, if there are. Besides Technology Day, the next event then will be obviously the full year results on February 14, 2024.

And with that, we wish you a nice autumn, and bye-bye. Take care.

[Carla Geyseleer, executive]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Goodbye.