Holcim AG

SIX:HOLN

Earnings Call Transcript 2019-Q1

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the LafargeHolcim Q1 2019 Trading Update Conference Call. I am Sandra, the Chorus Call operator. [Operator Instructions] And the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] The conference must not be recorded for publication or broadcast.At this time, it's my pleasure to hand over to Mr. Jan Jenisch, CEO; and Ms. Géraldine Picaud, CFO. Please go ahead.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes. Good morning, everyone, and thank you very much for joining our conference call this morning on the quarter 1 results 2019. I'm here with Géraldine, our CFO, and we will try to give you maybe a 10-minute summary on the results, the key takeaways and some regional information in order to have enough time for your questions.So let me start with, I would say that we had a very good start to the year 2019. You've seen the numbers. We have a growth of over 6%. EBITDA is plus 20%. So I think I couldn't have wished for a better start of the year. It goes very well with the second half of 2018 where we started to show a similar performance. So I think we have now already 3 consecutive quarters where we grow on the upper level of our guidance, and we are able to increase EBITDA, but also later, net profit on overproportional level. So very pleased with this. You also see that these results are broadly based. They come from Europe. They come from North America. They come from Asia. They come from our cost-saving program. And also, they come from all 4 business segments: from Cement, from Ready-Mix Concrete, Aggregates and from Solutions & Products. And this, I think, makes me very confident also going now in the remaining months of the year that we will achieve our targets as we have communicated them.I think with this, I will hand over to Géraldine, who gives us a little bit more details on the regions, but also on our divestments at the new level of financial strength, which we have achieved.

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Jan. Good morning, everyone. So if we go to the slide, to the presentation where we exposed our divestments. You can see that after the completion of the sale of Indonesia, announced in February, we have signed 2 agreements, 1 for Malaysia and Singapore and 1 for the Philippines. On average, we are very proud to have achieved a strong valuation of 21x the 2018 recurring EBITDA with a global enterprise value close to $5 billion. This multiple implies a significant premium to the local stock prices and, obviously, to overtrading multiple. We expect a normative impact of all transactions of 0.6x on the leverage. That's before IFRS 16. And we assess that we should close 2019 with a debt in the range of CHF 10 billion, excluding the IFRS 16 liability, which could be overachieved depending on the outcome of the scrip dividend. This means that, in any case, we have delivered on our deleverage objective.If we now go on to the regions -- first to the key numbers on Slide 3 -- Slide 4, excuse me. That's our key numbers. And you can see, as Jan mentioned, that sales and recurring EBITDA for this quarter are very strong. In Q1, our net sales were up 6.4% on a like-for-like basis supported by good increase in both volumes and prices. Recurring EBITDA was up 20.6% at CHF 809 million. For the third consecutive quarter, our recurring EBITDA growth is exceeding our sales growth, reaching the excellent number of 20.6% on a like-for-like basis. Please note that these numbers do not account for the positive effect of IFRS 16, which is applicable since January 1, 2019. This was a consequence that the large part of the leases are not booked as an EBITDA expense anymore.If we turn on to the volume growth. The volumes have increased in all segments. Volumes in Cement were up 4.6% on a like-for-like basis. This has been driven by an excellent growth in Europe. On the foundation of a solid demand in construction, the favorable weather has driven higher sales volume in most European countries and segments especially in Eastern Europe and France. Germany and Spain also brought solid contribution. North America recorded a contrasted progression with good Cement growth in the U.S. and a slow start in Ready-Mix in Canada. Lat Am has a weak trend especially due to reduced infrastructure spending in Mexico and a slower market in Argentina. Middle East Cement volume has a bit declined mainly due to Egypt, which suffers from overcapacity. And Asia has recorded contrasted results with good volumes growth in India, partly offset by complicated market in the Philippines.If we now turn on to our net sales and the bridge, the Q1 sales bridge. Sales have increased by 2.2% in total while organic growth amounted to 6.4%. The sales have been negatively impacted by a negative scope effect of minus 1.8% following the closing of Indonesia and the ForEx effect of minus 2.2%. This high like-for-like growth results mainly from the volume increase but also from a strong contribution of prices.If we now turn on to our recurring EBITDA, the Slide 7. You can see here that recurring EBITDA increased overall by 15.5% in total, of which 20.6% on a like-for-like basis. The like-for-like growth is driven by both volume growth but also a positive price over cost of CHF 99 million. Actually, on a fully consolidated company, inflation has been 3.5%, excluding energy; and energy price have increased by 5.8%. These increases have been more than offset by our price increases and Huaxin progress of CHF 27 million. Our cost-saving program also delivered CHF 95 million before inflation in Q1 in total and well on track to reach our ambition. Finally, IFRS 16 was adopted January 1, 2019. The EBITDA impact, meaning the removal of the eligible lease expense from EBITDA amounts to CHF 111 million in Q1.With this, I'm going to hand over to you for questions and for Jan for the outlook before.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Good. The outlook, again, the quarter 1 is not the biggest quarter of the year. However, when we look at the volumes and the broad base of the results are driven by -- we are very confident we have strong order books especially in Europe, in North America and in Asia, and we expect our momentum to continue for the months to come. And we can confirm our targets which are 3% to 5% sales growth and then overproportional EBITDA growth of at least 5%. The deleveraging, I think, was done very well. We have achieved fantastic valuation, so we have quite a huge financial firepower now, and our original target of at least 2x net debt to EBITDA will be now most likely be much overachieved for the full year. Cash conversion, we will improve as promised. And overall, we will invest. We have some key investments in India coming up, some smaller ones in Europe and the U.S. We will have at least 10 bolt-on acquisitions for the year. However, total CapEx and bolt-on acquisitions will be less than CHF 2 billion.With this outlook, I'd like to turn over to you and happy to answer your questions. Maybe we can limit to one question a person to really go around, but please go ahead.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Elodie Rall, JPMorgan.

[Elodie Rall, Research Analyst]

Jan and Géraldine, my first -- I'll try 2, if I can. The first question on disposals. First of all, is there any antitrust concerns to have on the Philippines? Is there any conflict for the buyer you think? And just a follow-on, do you think you can give us some guidance on the impact on EBITDA from the scope of those disposals in Asia? So we're talking about CHF 230 million, if I'm correct? What's the split between '19 and '20? And if I can sneak in second question on Middle East Africa, performance is still down double digit in Q1, looking at -- well, you're talking about some stabilization. And I think you said at full year results that you were hoping not to see any further declines in profits this year versus last year on a full year basis. So do you think it's still possible to make up for the shortfall in Q1 during the rest of the year?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Thanks, Elodie, for the questions. On the Middle East Africa, we still stick with our guidance. We believe we're going to have around flat results for the full year. We are a little bit delayed with the recovery. We have some strikes and some special political situations, but we don't take it as an excuse. We see the trend basically from the second half into the quarter improving month-by-month. So we have strong signs that our forecast is -- will be correct for the full year on Middle East Africa. Maybe quickly on the antitrust in the Philippines. So we have signed these 4 divestment agreements. Indonesia was already closed in February. We expect rather fast closing in Malaysia and Singapore within the next, let's say, 2 months. The Philippines, the procedure is a little bit more deep. So maybe, here, we expect a couple months to go forward, and I expect closing this year and I don't see antitrust issues.

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

And on your question, Elodie, on the EBITDA, yes, you're right, the scope is about CHF 230 million.

[Elodie Rall, Research Analyst]

And can we have the split between '19 and '20?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Well...

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Going forward, how the EBITDA would be this year? Is that the question?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes?

[Elodie Rall, Research Analyst]

Yes. What would be the scope impact for '19 and '20, that split between them?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

I give you my personal view, like, how -- which is -- it depends on the closing.

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, it depends. It depends on the closing, Elodie, so...

[Elodie Rall, Research Analyst]

All right. Okay.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Let me answer the question may be in a different way. So I think the -- it depends a bit on the close. And so Indonesia is, we had the 1 extra month this year. Then Malaysia, Singapore will be most likely be closed for June, yes, so we have maybe half a year or less. And the Philippines will be closed maybe in quarter 4, so we have 3 quarters of that.Maybe on the outlook, and that's the question I have been asked before because we said that we took a strategic decision first to divest South East Asia because we don't see that region recovering in EBITDA margins. So we can have a very positive debate on the growing cement demand in most of these markets, and that's all true. We can discuss infrastructure needs. And so we can have a positive view on the cement demand. But when you start to simply look at the EBITDA margins, you realize that no global player can be happy with the returns. You need to have at least 30% EBITDA margins in these markets in order to make up for the local currency to make up for the high WACC. And I don't see that Indonesia, for example, will recover anywhere close to 30% EBITDA margins. And this is why we have a lot of overcapacity in some of the markets and we have a lot of new capacity coming to the market. We have the Chinese entering Indonesia and the Philippines. So our true assessment was this is a market we don't see how we can go back to 30% plus EBITDA margins, and that's the conclusion. That also now going forward, if you want to calculate EBITDA, you can assume there is no big EBITDA increase against the 2018 numbers Géraldine has given to you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Alain Gabriel, Morgan Stanley.

[Alain Gabriel, Equity Analyst]

My question is on the Middle East Africa region, which appears to be fundamentally as challenged if not more than South East Asia. What are the strategic challenges that face -- that you're facing in accelerating any disposal program in that region? And how should we think about the future of that region within the group?And within that question as well, given that you have met or exceeded the disposal program, is that the end? Or should we be expecting more meaningful disposals throughout 2019?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

So we are very happy to have achieved or overachieved our targets on the disposals especially for this high valuations, which are key to really deleverage the company. And we obviously feel very comfortable now. So if you take the numbers we have provided, 0.7x deleveraging after we close 2.2x already in '18, so we are maybe at 1.6 towards the end of the year or maybe even -- I'm even a little bit more optimistic as Géraldine wants to keep this more conservative. But -- so we are in a very good level. Going forward, we feel comfortable to run this company below 2x multiple on the net debt-to-EBITDA. We believe a healthy global blue chips should not be 2x, so we try to keep to that principle. And however, now, we are comfortable. We have a strong balance sheet. And we will, first of all, focus now to grow the company. So we want to accelerate the bolt-on acquisitions especially in the very attractive markets, in the U.S., in Europe, in Australia. We did already 4 deals this year compared to 4 deals in the entire 2018. So this will be our focus.Now on the disposal, you are -- we have a fantastic portfolio of positions in Middle East Africa. We have some of the best quarries, some of the best factory positions and your question is -- nevertheless, is fair. We have to do some selections where we do want to invest for the future and what markets may be we are not able to divest -- to invest simultaneously. So Middle East Africa, we will take some decisions in this year, throughout the year, but no time pressure. And at the moment, we have no big divestment in the pipeline.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Phil Roseberg, Bernstein.

[Philip Anthony Roseberg, Senior Analyst]

Géraldine, Jan, nice results. Nice to see. I was going to try and sneak in 2 if they can be quick. My first one is just to understand a little bit the price cost effect. I know it's always confused a little bit with Huaxin, but it would be interesting to understand, ex Huaxin price, is price offsetting cost? And how will that evolve going forward, the cost outlook? I guess your hedge should be fixed and so how will that sort of play out in the next couple of quarters? The second one is just Huaxin seems to continue to contribute significantly. What is behind that continued growth? Is it price? Is it volume? What exactly? And where will that -- what's the expectation for that outlook at Huaxin?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. Phil, so about the CHF 99 million in Q1 of price over cost, we have a very good price effect to start with. That said, that has almost offset the inflation that we have endured during the quarter that I explained being 3.5%. This was excluding energy. Energy, we were around 5% increase. You're right that on power, we are hedged. Power represent about 40% of the total energy cost, and we are partially hedged where it depends on the markets whether they are regulated or not obviously. And -- but this is fairly under control. I mean we're seeing that we should be slight -- have a slight increase overall in the year, if any, for energy.On the JV, the JV contributed to CHF 33 million in the CHF 99 million that you're seeing. So that comes mainly from Huaxin, as I mentioned, for CHF 27 million. And we see Huaxin developing fairly well during the year. We have a very good trend in terms of pricing. We're well positioned. So we have -- we believe that will -- this will carry on throughout the year.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

If you look at Huaxin, we are very proud to be the fifth largest Chinese cement manufacturer. And besides the Cement, we now have a very good pricing in China. We do significant investments into aggregates in China. And then you will see some new greenfield plants basically down the growth at Huaxin. So we have very, very attractive projects with very short payback terms and very exciting. So we see that Huaxin not a short-term increase, but this will be a very strong part of our business.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Lars Kjellberg, Crédit Suisse.

[Lars F. Kjellberg, Research Analyst]

I just want to come back to your achievements thus far. Clearly, you've delivered on the cost-outs, divestitures done, leverage is well below your targets. You mentioned you're comfortable below 2x and financial power. So I guess the question really is how -- what you'd do going forward to continue this positive trend in terms of incremental margin expansion? What sort of, if you can share your thoughts on how you can continue to drive aggregates and Ready-Mix Concretes higher? And also when you talk about the bolt-on valuations up to potentially more than 10 this year, you made it very clear in terms of valuation on disposals. How should we think about valuations on bolt-ons? And will this potentially be meaningful contributor to earnings and growth as we progress through the year and into 2020?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes. I think going forward, I think, we entered now the stage of our Strategy 2022 where we will deliver profitable growth on all levels. So that means the volume growth, the sales growth will drive overproportional increase in operating profit. Then you can imagine with less financial burden, but also Géraldine and her team has done very smart refinancing choices throughout the year. So our finance costs are coming down significantly. At the same time, I don't know how much you talk about it on the tax side, we also have very, very smart programs to lower the tax rate. So we get, based on overproportional operating margin, we got -- we enter now a phase where we will also see on top of that overproportional net profit. And on top of that, the cash conversion has been announced by us as, it must increase, so you will see improved cash conversion on top of that. This is the model we will lead now going forward and coming to a very healthy, how to say it, self-helping operating model.

[Lars F. Kjellberg, Research Analyst]

Yes. In terms of valuation on acquisitions and also when you say self-help, where can you redeploy free cash beyond -- you obviously used it now to pay down debt, but what's next, so to speak? Your plans in terms of CapEx plus bolt-ons is less than CHF 2 billion, so it's not a meaningful deployment of cash.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes, we put that also in as a kind of a limit for the year to make everyone, the investors comfortable that we want to create value and that we're not going to overspend. Nevertheless, we will go for attractive options. The valuation on the bolt-on side is, I think, in very healthy levels. Normally, it's around our own multiple before any synergies, so we have very value-accretive bolt-on acquisitions what we have done last year, this year. So we try to accelerate that. And I'm happy to spend significantly more on bolt-ons compared to 2018.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Arnaud Pinatel, LafargeHolcim (sic) [ On Field Research ].

[Arnaud Jacques Michel Pinatel, Founding Partner]

It's Arnaud Pinatel from On Field Research. I want to ask a first question just to follow up on the acquisition side. So if we consider that you're going to focus on bolt-on, it doesn't look like you're going to have a transforming deal. And one of your pillar of strategies to develop the building products division, what you call I think products and solution. So could you share with us if you need or not to do bigger deal to acquire critical size in this division? And or could you please share with us what could be the percentage of sales or EBITDA you could generate from this division by 2025. [ I don't know].

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

So thank you for the question. I think is the strategy is there. So we want to develop the 4 segment, Solutions & Products. This is clear. Here, we have to -- we will not make any move which doesn't create value. So here, we have to wait for the right opportunities. We are not overpaying just to fill some line in the strategy paper. We will only buy something if we are convinced we have a good cash flow going forward. So I cannot give you more color today. We're trying also Solutions & Products to expand. Also, we will expand through acquisitions, but we will be very value disciplined. So in a nutshell, we sell high, we buy low. That's our principle. What you have seen from Géraldine in the past, from me in the past, and this is what you have start to see now at LafargeHolcim, and this is how we play this. So I have no big news for you, but just can explain the principles. We will be totally value disciplined, and we hope we get a lot of opportunities to grow through acquisitions in the future, also in Solutions & Products.

[Arnaud Jacques Michel Pinatel, Founding Partner]

Okay. And perhaps just a second question which is more short term. When you look at April and May, what have you seen in terms of volume and demand? Because obviously, your Q1 is very good, and it's partly driven by basis comp and mild weather. So just to try to understand your confidence about the rest of the year, if you could share with us if there is any geographies in April and May where you've seen a significant positive or negative inflection in trends?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes. I think you see me quite confident that even Q1 is a small quarter. But when I look at the order books we have, and broadly [ high ] based success factors for this growth in North America, in Europe and Asia, I'm very confident that this will continue into the quarter 2. We also have to realize, last year we have a few hiccups in the factory performance in the second quarter. If you recall, that was one of my very frustrating quarters in my career, where the demand picked up in quarter 2 2018, and we had some hiccups in the supply chain. So we took extra care of the supply chain in all the key markets in the first quarter. So again, I don't want to be overly optimistic. But when I look at the demand, the order book [ tend ] our preparation for the supply chain, I think we are in a very good position for quarter 2.

[Arnaud Jacques Michel Pinatel, Founding Partner]

Okay. If I may just do a follow on that. We have seen [ at the elite brighton ] for example, in Australia warning on the Australian market. I think you are still expecting growth in Asia Pacific, so I guess you're very confident on India. But on Australia, you have no specific worry for the coming quarters?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

I was a bit surprised about this profit warning. You have seen in our quarter report, we even have a line that we have increasing profit in Australia and New Zealand for the first quarter. So I cannot confirm this trend. I think we are also -- Australia will contribute to the good results in 2019.

[Operator]

The next questions comes from the line of Arnaud Lehmann, Bank of America.

[Arnaud Lehmann]

I guess my main question is around Europe and especially European pricing. We've seen your competitors reporting positive pricing trends and also highlighting that this year the prices in Europe have gone up since January rather than having to wait for April. So can you confirm this positive trend and maybe a little bit of color in -- for your main countries? And then maybe just also follow up on your capital allocation. Now that you've done all these disposals, and clearly your balance sheet is in much better shape. You mentioned 1.6x net debt-to-EBITDA potentially at the end of the year. Do you regret to go for a scrip dividend? Or are you happy with that? Was it a one-off? Or shall we expect potentially more scrip dividends going forward?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

I think on the pricing is -- what we see this year, I think we see a better pricing environment than last year also driven by the solid demand. So in Europe, I think we have a good pricing going forward in most of our markets, exception the U.K. where it's probably may the only key market in Europe where we see a little bit soft in both on volumes and pricing. Not a disaster at this point, but that's the only market. Besides that, we have very positive volume and price developments in Eastern Europe, in Germany, in France, Spain, Italy. So we're very happy with the situation and all the actions taken by the teams in Europe. For the U.S., we have a similar situation where I think the teams has worked better to prepare for the year on the pricing side, also on the supply chain side. So we're very positive for the U.S. especially when you compare to last year. I think Latin America will be an area where the volumes will be, may be lower for the full year, slightly lower. But the people have a huge resilience to keep the margins and keep the pricing up to that sometimes inflationary environment. I think India, this is our second-biggest market, and here you want to see better pricing than last year. And I think here we are -- we see also the positive trend going forward.

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

And on the capital allocation question you had, so yes, 1.6x is our estimate in terms of leverage for the year end. It's subject to completion of all deals before the year end and also before IFRS 16. So the scrip dividend, as we said, it's here to allow us to accelerate our growth strategy. So from that standpoint, of course, there's no regret, on the opposite. And about what we will do next year, we will see next year.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Roger, Exane BNP Paribas.

[Paul Barry Roger]

Congratulations on a strong start. Just a couple of quick questions. Firstly, just expanding on your commentary about India. I think in the Q4 stage, you were expecting margins to stabilize in 2019. Obviously, if we look at ACC in Ambuja you saw a 200 basis points squeeze in Q1. So I wonder if you could just talk more generally about whether you're still expecting margins to stabilize for India in 2019 and maybe the outlook more generally. And then secondly, following up also on Asia. If we strip out India and JVs from the overall division, it looks like the margins in the other countries jumped from around 11% to 35%. Firstly, is that maths correct? And secondly, what's driving that?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

First, I think on India, we will see increasing margins for 2019. In Q1, the teams were preparing for pricing and their regional strategies, so here we are confident that we will see increasing margins and we have to see that for India. On your question for Asia, Géraldine, do you want to comment?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Well, the rest performs quite well. All of our [ sink ] Australia did very well in Q1 as we've already precised. And basically, all the countries had a strong growth in their recording EBITDA in Asia.

[Paul Barry Roger]

Okay. So there was nothing sort of exceptional or specific in there?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

No, really not.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Bernd Pomrehn from Vontobel.

[Bernd Pomrehn, Analyst]

Jan, you mentioned quite the financial firepower you have regained, and you mentioned also at least 10 bolt-on acquisitions this year. Where do you see actually most opportunities? Is it in ready-mix where especially the U.S. market is still highly fragmented? Or also in Aggregates and Solutions & Products?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes, the acquisitions we have done so far this year are focused on our vertically integrated markets of Europe, U.S. and Australia and we have a couple of more projects in the pipeline. And I think we are excited to do all of the 3 segments, so Ready-Mix, Aggregates and Solutions & Products depending on the right opportunities. And maybe to give you a bit more color, so I would like to go in the double-digit deal numbers already this year. So generate at least 1% of sales growth through bolt-ons. And this is the mechanics I would like to see going forward.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Ahmed Nabil, Barclays.

[Nabil Ahmed]

I have 2 quick ones, if I may. The first one, you have given a lot of press reports on the environmental issues with the Batangas plant in the Philippines. So my question is to understand whether there are any potential environmental or social liability that could potentially affect the closing or the price of the transaction in the Philippines? The second question, coming back on your comments on Middle East and Africa and the stabilizing trends. Just to understand, are you expecting the pressure in Egypt and Algeria to ease towards the end of the year? Or do you expect other market in Middle East and Africa to make up for the weak performance in those 2 countries?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

I think on Middle East Africa -- and you're right, I think we took a big hit in Algeria from a demand-supply curve from the pricing, as you are well aware. And I think that this has bottomed out now. So we have, going forward, now in Algeria, we have I think a good situation. And we have also -- we expect in the other big market of Nigeria, we expect positive contributions this year and also from all the small to medium positions we have. So again, I would like to repeat, we are really, really confident Middle East Africa, we will see stabilizing results for the coming months, and you will see a stable result for the full year.

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

And on your questions on the Philippines, really, I would like to emphasize again that Holcim Philippines has just an excellent relationship with its communities in all the areas where it's operating, and there is no issue to be noted with regards to the deal.

[Nabil Ahmed]

So there's no conditions in the transaction related to any potential outcome on the plant I mentioned or any of the social disputes that have been reported in local press?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

No. No. And frankly, again, we have very strong CSR environment programs that can demonstrate that we are a good partner to all the communities. So no, of course not, there's no [ fixed fees ] in the deal.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Beria Manish, Societe Generale.

[Manish Beria, Equity Analyst]

I have 2 questions. The first is, like, if I look at your operating lease outstanding for 2017 and '18, it has been rising. So it seems like the CapEx was brought down in 2017 and '18 by using more operating leases. So can you please tell us the real maintenance CapEx required as a percentage of depreciation if you exclude the lease impact for both 2017 and '18? The second one is, so I want to know what will be the impact of IFRS 16 accounting on EBITDA and net debt in FY 2019? And is there any change from what you have disclosed in the Annual Report of 2018?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. So no, there's no material change to note with regards to the shift of the operating lease that you're mentioning. Actually, between '17 and '18 and even '19, we really look at it on a case-by-case basis and make sure we create as much as possible value, so meaning net income for the group. On your question about IFRS 16, so you're right, so since January 1, 2019, we now apply IFRS 16 with no restatement of the past periods. So the standard requires to integrate the lease commitments on the balance sheet, including the operating leases, which were previously recognized off-balance sheet while, as you know, the rent paid each year was included as an expense in the EBITDA. So consequently, we book an additional debt as of January 1, 2019 that amounts to CHF 1.460 billion, and that corresponds to the net present value of the future lease payments not previously recognized. So we've indicated in our Q1 results that the IFRS 16 impact on the recurring EBITDA was CHF 111 million. That, of course, is following the inflation of the corresponding rent expense, and this is, of course, excluded from the like-for-like computation. So we're still assessing the impacts for the full year, but our current estimate is consistent with this Q1 number. As I guided already in March, so it will be between CHF 400 million and CHF 500 million for the year.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Gregor Kuglitsch, UBS.

[Gregor Kuglitsch]

So my question is on the net debt. So I think last year, you closed the year at 13.9, this include the Indonesian debt. I think you communicated that the net proceeds of the disposals is 3.9, if I'm not mistaken, which already gets you to 10. So obviously, the 10 implies that everything else neutralizes, which is a bit surprising considering you issued a hybrid and then obviously you generate cash flow. So I want to understand whether the 10 is just kind of a number that you're very comfortable hitting and probably will exceed, or whether there's anything else that we kind of need to -- that I forgot in my bridge, I guess, to get to that number?

[Géraldine J. M. Picaud, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. Gregor, so yes, we say around 10, but we effectively expect to below 10. Yes.

[Operator]

The last question is from Josep Pujal, Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Josep Pujal, Head of Building Materials & Construction Sector]

Yes. Could you comment on potential further disposals, let's say, material ones, not small things. But do you envisage still things that cumulatively, let's say, they would do above CHF 1 billion, let's say, in the coming 12, 18 months? Or you consider that the material disposals are over? And also related to that, how low are you able to bring the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio if we imagine, yes, if we saw that there was not big opportunities, that you only could do bolt-ons? Would you feel comfortable with just 1 net -- 1x debt-to-EBITDA? Or you consider that, okay, this is nonoptimum and that you should do something about that?

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

I [ don't want the disposals ] we are -- I'm very happy that we have done this big step now, and it's the same with buying assets and doing M&A. On the other side, you have to have the right window and also the fortune, in our case, to get the multiple, which is like 3x our group multiple. So I'm extremely positive, and I think we kind of have the first-mover or preemptive advantage doing this thing in Southeast Asia. So this gives us now an immense level of freedom, as you can imagine. So there's no pressure on our side. And we overfulfilled our promise to strengthen the balance sheet. And we will focus now more on the growth side. So we want to do 10 plus bolt-on acquisitions this year. And we want to grow in the very solid markets we see globally. And we have no plans at this point to have any major disposal.

[Josep Pujal, Head of Building Materials & Construction Sector]

If I can, yes, just jump on that. You talk a lot about growth, but for the time being, you're only talking about bolt-ons and bolt-ons, saying that, okay, around 1% extra growth per year. This is, I would say, this is not enough. What you have disposed equates to 3% to 4%. So you, I would say, are you saying that you will go for something more than bolt-ons, more material deals? Because if not, I struggle to square everything.

[Jan Jenisch, Chief Executive Officer]

No, I think to develop a successful global company and transform our company into a blue chip, we need several steps. So if you look now our results, since middle of last year we are growing above 5%. Constantly, we are improving the margins overproportionately, so we are in a growth mode. Now the divestments we made now was basically 3 cement markets. So we're not talking about something really major affecting the group. So I think very smartly done. And now we have to wait for the next steps. And as I said, we will focus on the growth, and you will see very, very good moves from us going forward also on the growth side. However, nothing I can share today, but there are many opportunities in the market.Okay. I was just told that we are -- we ran out of time. So from my side, thank you so much for joining today, and I very much look forward to meet you in person very soon. And please have a good week. Thank you. Bye-bye.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, the conference is now over. Thank you for choosing Chorus Call, and thank you for participating in the conference. You may now disconnect your lines. Good bye.