Salmones Camanchaca SA

SGO:SALMOCAM

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Good morning. We are now reporting the financial report of 2023. Together with me is Manuel Arriagada, the General Manager of Salmones Camanchaca. And we start by saying that we confronted a very challenging 2023, as you may have seen in the numbers. But not only on market and operations, but also from a regulatory point of view. And as a consequence of that, the results that you have received yesterday are much weaker than expected and certainly below our ambition and expectation for the business.

We continue to be very focused in 2023 and particularly also in 2024 on our risk mitigating strategies and to fully leverage and utilize our capacities and assets, right? That is sort of the main starting point of this presentation. We'll cover this agenda. And on the highlights of the quarter, I would say that our operating revenues for the year was 5% lower than 2022, yet with the same volume sold during the year.

However, if we take a look at the fourth quarter of 2023, we have a 4% decline in revenue despite larger volumes sold, meaning that the prices that we confronted in the fourth quarter were a lot lower than in 2022. In fact, if you take a look of both Atlantic and Salmon, we had 12% reduction on the price in Atlantic and 38% decline in the price of Coho. However, we were compared with the benchmark that we had in the U.S. market. We were above the benchmark in 11 out of 12 months during 2023. That is sort of a consolation price.

Atlantic price decline explain about half of our reduction that we see in 2023 on EBITDA. While the negative margin on Coho explained about 1/3 of the decline in EBITDA during the year. On the cost side, Atlantic ex-cage cost farming cost for Atlantic decline compared to the third quarter of 2023 as we expected and mentioned it on our last earnings report. However, it was larger than the fourth quarter of 2022.

During the entire year of 2023, our ex-cage cost for Atlantic was at $4.9 per kilo WFE that is about 12% above the previous year. Mostly, I would say, as a consequence of the feed cost as well as the cost embedded in the various strategies that we are following to reduce the risk of the business that is going to be mentioned by Manuel in a minute.

Lower fourth quarter extraordinary mortality despite the challenges that we had during the year in terms of the biology and environment in the ocean, in Chile, the results in terms of extraordinary mortality the resolved mortality above 2% of any sea farm were much lower than previous year. And I have to say, it was influenced this $1.7 million extraordinary mortality impact by the elimination of Coho smolt as a consequence of our decision to reduce Coho stocking that will be mentioned later.

However, the challenges of the biology during the year and the environment, if you take a look of the table where we report the sustainability and biological indicators of all the sea farms that were completed their cycle during 2023. That is a very substantial improvement with respect to the previous year.

In terms of 2024 highlights, we expect a single-digit growth of Atlantic for 2024, but sharp reduction on our Coho harvest for the year 2024 that these are the main takeaways of the quarter.

Financial highlights. As I mentioned, despite a much larger volume sold in the fourth quarter of 2023, revenue were lower mostly because of the price of both Atlantic and particularly the Coho. As I mentioned, minus 12% and minus 38% on Atlantic and Coho, respectively. As a consequence of that, the EBIT per kilo combined between Atlantic and Coho were negligible during the quarter.

The EBIT kilo on Atlantic was $0.33 compared to more than $1.40 in the fourth quarter of 2022. And in the case of Coho, it was $1.30 negative during the quarter because of the price that was compared to more than $0.50 positive in the fourth quarter of 2022, sharp reduction in the margin of our 2 species for the fourth quarter as a consequence of a sharp decline in price. However, the EBITDA that you see in this table includes a provision that we made of $4.3 million in inventories hold -- held in December 2023.

We had a very important harvest in the fourth quarter, evidently not all were sold. We had a large inventory at the end of 2023. And the net realizable value provision of that inventory was USD 4.3 million that was accounted as a provision on EBITDA on that. That's not in the EBIT per kilo of the units sold, obviously.

With the price evolution that we have seen in the early part of 2024, particularly in January -- late January, although February has been more stable, but it was a good start of 2024. We foresee that some of these provision made in 2023 could be reverted during the first half of 2024, as we go forward with a better market condition. $33.5 million EBITDA on $353 million revenue compared to more than double EBITDA in 2022.

As I mentioned, almost 14,500 metric tons WFE of inventory were left at the end of December that are planning to be benefited by better market condition in the early part of 2024.

In reviewing stocking and harvest, the quarterly sorry -- yes. Sorry, I should switch to the next slide. In terms of harvest and stocking in 2023, quarterly Atlantic harvest was in line with our production as well as the harvest for the entire 2023, we're very much in line with our estimates and the guidance that we provided throughout the year. On the Atlantic stocking for 2023, we were also in line and certainly higher than 2022, aiming for an increase in the harvest of 2024, as I mentioned, between 8% and maybe 10% growth in 2024 with the stocking that we already have in the water.

However, on Coho, the stocking that we are planning for 2024 is a sharp reduction compared to what we did in the early part of 2023. We have reduced our stocking by about 60% in 2024 estimates and therefore, there will be a short reduction in the harvest at the end of 2024 in Coho that we estimate at around 4,000 metric tons that is about 40% of what we had in 2023 and early part of 2024. This is a consequence of the estimates that we have for the price of the Coho that we see weak for 2024, a consequence of the -- mostly of the sharp devaluation of the main market for that species in Japan.

Total expectation for 2024 in terms of harvest is in the 53, maybe 55 -- sorry, 52,000, 54,000 metric tons of total harvest between 2 species. If you take a look of the data on Coho stocking, we believe that our more conservative strategy for Coho in 2024 will be followed by the rest of the industry as in the latest numbers of stocking of Coho between October and January. October '23, January 24, we have seen more than 20% reduction in the stocking of Coho for the next season that is the '24, '25 season.

With that, I'll leave you with Manuel.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Thank you, Ricardo. Good morning to everyone. Let's go to the operational review for the quarter. I'm going to start with the biology of Atlantic salmon. Regarding the evolution of the monthly mortality that you can see in the left graph, we can see that the mortality was under control in the fourth quarter with values below the industry average.

During 2023, the only exception of high mortality is due to an oxygen event that we had in [Audio Gap]. In relation to the full year 2023, the right table shows the values for the full year. And we can see that all the indicators were better than the industry average. The mortality, the conversion, the growth, the cycle length and the average harvest weight. The only section was the consumption of antibiotics, which was due to sites with SRS outbreaks during the year. It's important to mention that the environmental condition for the year 2024 has started in good condition with low mortalities and without a handful micro algae events reported to date.

In relation to the Atlantic ex-cage farming cost, this Q4 came with an ex-cage cost that was lower than Q3, noticing a decrease since the peak that we had in the second quarter. However, the cost was higher than the same period of last year, 4.55% compared with 3.91% in Q4 2022, which have been pressed mainly by, of course, feed cost, as Ricardo mentioned, and also incidence of SRS and sea lice, especially in one side in Q4 that represents 65% of the harvest for the bank.

In addition to that, we are, of course, still experiencing cost pressures due to the global inflation including feed ingredients and also the mitigation measures that we are implementing.

In relation to the total cost -- the total cost for the quarter, including the ex-cage plus processing was 5.99%, in line with the previous quarter, but it was 10% above compared with the same quarter of last year because of the ex-cage cost. Regarding processing, it was $1.1 per kilo WFE, below the same quarter of the previous year due to lower logistics costs driven by harvest 100% from the 10th region and due to lower value-added processing in the secondary processing plant.

It's important to mention that in the processing area, during last year, we carried out a productivity and efficiency program and project with which we expect to have a reduction between 5% to 10% in the processing costs in the long term.

The sustainability indicators. In Q4, we closed only one site that is located in the 10th region [indiscernible]. So the sustainability metrics presented in the table are related to this specific site. For that site, the fish-in-fish-out ratio was maintained below 0.5%, in line with our sustainability targets. The site also recorded very low level of antibiotic treatments and also antibiotic users.

Additionally, there were no sea lice treatment in the entire cycle for that size.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Maybe you can compare with 2021, which is a similar...

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Exactly. 2021 is the same comparable year in terms of the cycles of the farming. So it's a very good evolution, in 2023 compared with the 2021 year. And also, it's important to highlight that in this particular site, we implemented a new innovative [ equivalent ] system and technology with that, of course, significantly contributed to have this good biological and sanitary indicators in this particular site.

Let's take a look about the markets. First, regarding the Atlantic salmon price, this is the evolution of a new borrowing price in the U.S. market during the year. As you can see, after a peak that we had in the first quarter, the price declined and remained stable in Q3 and Q4 on a context of a weaker U.S. demand throughout the full year.

The global harvest were below previous year in minus 2%. And for Chile, the supply during 2023 increased by 2%. During the last quarter, the prices remained stable and below previous year with a rise during this event. Currently, today, the prices are higher in approximately $0.60 per pound compared to the end of December. For this year, Kontali expects a 5% drop in the Chilean supply with a big drop in Q1 of minus 12%. And for global supply, Kontali expect a 2% increase for the full year.

Camanchaca price achievement, very good news on this. As I mentioned, the market prices after a peak in Q1 had a sharp decline in May and June and then recovered in July and August. And finally, a decrease in the last part of the year. At the same time, a Salmones Camanchaca price were above the benchmark during all of the year and especially in Q3 and Q4. Our raw material return was $0.55 above the unvaried benchmark during the last quarter. Of course, the flexibility in formats and markets explain these higher returns.

Also, due to the value-added strategy with contracts, we have more stable prices compared with the benchmark in the market.

Sales, Atlantic sales distribution -- in relation to Atlantic and distribution, America continues to be the largest and most important market with 37% of market share followed by euro Asia with 20% and then Mexico with 17%. Value added in the quarter was 72% and above previous quarter, but lower than the fourth quarter of last year, 2022, due to better opportunities that we have in [ each own ] formats -- frozen formats.

Our marketing long-term strategy, of course, is focused in our core markets, mainly American market and Mexican market, in order to leverage our long-dated relationship with our customers to allocate our product market portfolio with value-added products. At the same time, we have flexibility in markets and formats to adapt to the changing market conditions. That is for Atlantic.

Let's go to Coho. This graph presents several key metrics pertinent to the sales performance of Coho. In the blue line illustrates the 8% depreciation of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar throughout 2023, with accumulated depreciation of 22% over the past 2 years. Of course, this currency shift has influenced the dollar -- the price of copper in dollar in its principal market, which is Japan. The ripple effect of this devaluation and dollar price reduction has also extended to all Coho markets. Currently, the yen, it's more or less in the $150 level.

In relation to the supply, the Chilean industry increased the copper production since 2020, with an increase in the production of 20% during last year. So an important increase of the supply from Chile. It's important to mention that the Japanese market still represents 2/3 of the total Chilean industry. The graph also present the volumes sold in orange columns and the Coho price in orange line for Salmones Camanchaca, a decrease on price can be observed starting from August.

And finally, Coho formats and markets in relation to Coho sales distribution, the American market was the largest market with a 62% market share in the quarter, followed by LatAm that is mostly Mexico. The value added was 99% that was above previous quarter with fillets being the largest relative churn. The marketing strategy of Coho is to develop new markets and to have develop new -- and to have a production mix flexibility in fillets and portions apart from the traditional [ hit-and-get-it ] format.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Thank you, Manuel. Let's complete further analysis on the financials for this quarter and for the year. Obviously, as we mentioned, the reduction in EBITDA was mainly explained by market condition, much more than from a cost situation despite the cost being higher, but it was mainly a market condition. And that market condition is mainly explained by weaker demand -- weaker demand in Japan because of the devaluation and the lack of growth of that market or that country, I would say, that was extended to all other markets where Coho can be sold and on the Atlantic, we had a surprise on the price because it was, I think, one of the first years that I've seen where demand actually was contracted in 2023, not as much as other seafood categories, but it's certainly declined and that explained the reduction in the price.

Sales price effect on unsold inventories. It's highlighted there at USD 4.4 million, 90% of which came from Coho, only a small fraction from Atlantic. And that we -- as I mentioned, we estimate that this provision on the inventory might be reverted in the first half of 2024, whether because we sold it -- we sell these products and/or because the price in the market came at a higher level.

Inventories of seller of Atlantic in December were roughly approximately 1 month harvest. So it's a very manageable inventory that we are benefiting now with a higher price. On the Coho side, inventories were substantial, 10,000 metric tons, WFE or something like that. But that will serve us to continue feeding the market throughout the entire 2024, and as a consequence of our much lower volume available at the end of 2024. So we think that this strategy will benefit us in better market conditions for the remaining part of 2024.

On a P&L basis, and further to the analysis that we have already covered, we had a large surprise on nonoperational items, particularly on the Coho business. As you know, we have a joint venture on the Coho -- sorry, on the trout business. We have a minority participation. We do not operate a trout operation that came out in the quarter sharply worse than in 2022, most of which is explained by the same situation we have on the Coho side.

The market for Chilean trout is mostly Japan. And despite the fact that trout production in Chile has declined in the last years, substantially, I should say. But the weaker market condition generated a much larger decline in the price of trout in that market. And therefore, the results of that joint venture was a lot worse than expected and is mentioned there with almost $2 million loss compared to a small profit in 2022 in the fourth quarter. Interest rates were higher. Our rate for the fourth quarter was 7.7% on the net interest-bearing debt level that is 2% -- more than 2%, 2.5% above the interest rate that we had on the debt-bearing interest in 2022. That's also important.

As a consequence of these numbers, the distributable earnings as dividend, is negligible. And therefore, there will be -- there will most likely be no dividend in 2023. In terms of the cash flow of the quarter, positive cash flow from operation at $16.6 million, investments were very constrained and not much different from depreciation in the quarter.

No new borrowings taken during the quarter. The net interest-bearing debt in the quarter, the level, the total financial debt-bearing interest in the quarter was about USD 145 million, that is $50 million above 2022, at the end of 2022. And the net cash -- net of cash of that debt was 60% more than in the last quarter of 2022 and came out at $122 million.

Despite this increase in debt and the reduction on the EBITDA of the company, the equity asset ratio of the company was above the threshold in our financing loans. The sustainability linked loan requires 40% equity ratio. We were 41.3%, slightly above as well as on the other indicators, the net financial debt in relation to the last 12-month EBITDA came out at 3.66x compared to the 4x threshold that is in our loans. So I should say that we comply with that.

The estimate for 2024, we have already mentioned this. Harvest guidance is consistent with the Atlantic growth plan that we have that are also targeting stocking and harvesting more Atlantic in the southern part of our concessions, north part of the 11th region, the region of Aysén, more will come from there in 2024.

However, we are going to make a pause on Coho, as I mentioned, a 60% reduction in the harvest for 2024 from 11,010 point-something metric tons harvest in 2023, we'll reduce that to approximately 4,000 harvest in 2024. If you take also the harvest that we have completed in January of this year from previous season that should come at around 5,000 metric tons for the calendar year of 2024. We have completed already, I should say, a large fraction more than 50%, maybe 3/4 of all the stocking plan for the year 2025, where -- when we expect to go beyond 50,000, 52,000, 55,000 metric tons of Atlantic harvest in 2025. Obviously, as you may guess, the stocking plan for 2025 in Coho will depend on market evolution throughout the 2024.

With that, let's summarize the quarter. We certainly didn't have a good year. We realized that in the middle of 2023. It was challenging on market conditions, particularly in the second half of 2023. It was challenging on the biology and environmental condition of the ocean, much of which translate into higher cost, by our many mitigating risk measures and strategies and therefore, influenced the cost of the fish rather than having high mortalities. So if you take a look of the mortality level, it's, I would say, a good year, but it has embedded a larger cost.

Second, on the Coho side, certainly a surprise. Certainly, a surprise. The situation that we confronted in the market. As a consequence of a much, much weaker market for Coho, where we did not go. However, it influence other markets where we did go and therefore, we saw prices that we did not expect and 1/3 of the reduction, a bit more than 1/3 of the reduction in the EBIT and EBITDA for the year came from the Coho; side.

We finished the year with more than 14,400 metric tons WFE of all inventory, [ 10 ] something on Coho, [ 4 ] something in Atlantic. On Atlantic, that's very manageable, and we are benefiting from that because of better market condition in the first quarter of 2024.

On the Coho side, we have a strategy in place for 2024 of reducing stocking, reducing harvest, reducing new products for 2024. And therefore, we have no rush to sell the inventories of Coho. We are going to do cherry-picking in the markets and the formats in 2024 with the inventory that were left from the previous season. We see a better situation for the Coho for 2024, when we expect other players of the industry to follow the same strategy because of market conditions.

And good to say, as Manuel mentioned, that we were a little apprehensive with the initial part of 2024 and the summer because of the El Niño situation in the Peru border -- ocean border line and also in the northern part pertinent Chile that might influence something -- the sonographic situation of the Patagonia in Chile. But we have good news so far until February 22, with a very mild condition, in the ocean and good for the fish. So the biological condition of our farming sites in the early part of '24 are coming good.

With that, I leave you for questions.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Question number one, how do you see the outlook for Camanchaca's main market in U.S., Mexico, Brazil, Japan?

Well, Japan, bad. You have seen the yen situation, where it has kept at around JPY 150 per dollar. That's a very contracting situation for the Japanese people. They have a much fewer dollar to buy imported goods from outside. And therefore, we see Japan very weak throughout the year.

We don't see any sharp change in Japan, in terms of the devaluation, much also influenced by the situation in the U.S. where we expect, as you may know, to have a reduction on interest rates more gradual than anticipated a couple of months ago and therefore, dollar should remain strong in the global markets. That is good for the U.S., the main market. I have to say that I was surprised by the reduction in the volume sold and therefore, demand in the U.S. market for all sea food category, despite an important reduction on the price level. That is despite the deflation on prices in sea food market in the U.S., the volume sold that is the quantity demanded also the client. That is a sharp reduction on demand. And -- but we have seen now a better situation. I think that the market is recovering, consumer confidence in the U.S. is bouncing back.

And it's important to mention that we anticipated a double-digit reduction in the supply of Chilean Salmon in the first half of 2024. So the expectation is that the market will be strong in the U.S. And Mexico follows a little bit on the U.S. Mexico is doing extremely well. You may see how global supply chain has moved out of China to Mexico, making it a bright country today, and that will translate it into a strong market.

And on Brazil, well, Brazil, it's a, I would say, a more opportunistic market for us. It's a very little value added on Brazil and -- but it has come up well during this early part of 2024.

Second question is, can you give us more details on the efficiency plan in processing?

Manuel, you might touch on that.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Yes. During last year, we conducted an efficiency plan for almost 8 months of the year, with the help of an external adviser of company, and it contains several areas of processing, productivity, in terms of headcount, investments to increase the productivity, maintenance cost and maintenance strategies, energy -- electric energy consumption and several initiatives.

We expect to capture more or less 50% of those savings during 2024 and in 2025, 100% of capture of the savings of the project. So several initiatives in several areas for both primary processing and secondary processing. And important also to say that we are going to repeat this project in farming this year.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Excellent. Very focused, as I mentioned, on leveraging our capacities and assets. I think with that, there is no more further question.

How do you expect Coho prices to developing the first half?

Well, good or bad. But because Japan is not waking up the devaluation of the yen, as you may have seen in the market yesterday was continue to be at around $150. However, the better market condition on Atlantic will pull up the price of Coho during the 2024. So the sharp reduction in supply of Atlantic from Chile in the first half will certainly help the Coho price.

Can you comment on political risk in Chile, in general?

Well, that's another speech and maybe another audience. It's -- what I can say is that we are preoccupied by the situation on the regulatory front with surprises coming from initiatives from the government for example, in the fishing law were at the last page, almost of that project proposal presented to Congress, we have seen again something that will limit the use of our concession in certain protected areas. A discussion that was in the parliament and the Congress more than 10 months ago in May 2023 and was rule out by Congress. It's -- it came back again now in this proposal. That's very hard to understand.

And also this, as you mentioned, [indiscernible] original, indigenous population request for territories in the ocean, which is very rational to give up such a gigantic amount of territory in the ocean to a couple of dozen people. very rational in many ways. We are doing what we can do to prevent that, but there is a lot of concern in the region and in the territory about the situation. This is not new, by the way. How could these effect Salmones Camanchaca.

Well, we operate under the rule of law, and we operate under the existing regulation. And so far, the regulation allow us to leverage all our assets and capacities, and this is our plan. So far, Congress and Chileans, in general, has proven very rational at the time, collectively, they need to make a decision, whether it's a plebiscite or at the Congress. So we are confident that, that will continue.

Do you see high sea lice numbers as a risk for reduced stocking in the next cycle for Salmones Camanchaca and for the Chilean industry?

Sea lice is always a problem here in Norway and everywhere. It's probably one of the main biological vector that generates headaches for the industry. And there is a flow of new tool kits coming to the market, some of which are losing efficacy, some of which are just introduced. So far, this has been manageable at a higher cost. And I think that, that will continue. And sea lice is not something that will be eliminated in the traditional farming. And we need to keep up with a new tool kit. As I mentioned, some of which implies additional cost and rotate the different tools to keep a minimum level of efficacy on the treatment.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Additional comment. And also, we are not seeing any risk regarding the sea lice and the stocking for Salmon Camanchaca. Actually, we are increasing the stocking during this year in accordance to our harvest plan. So because we are -- basically, we are opening new sites with less exposure to sea lice.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

There's a question, Manuel, on how do you see the Atlantic cost for 2024?

I should say that on the processing, good because we have a stable harvest plan for the year quarter-on-quarter. That means that the plant can be efficiently utilized. And on ex-cage, how do you see for 2024?

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Yes, we are ambition on reduction in the ex-cage cost as a full year for 2024, mainly trying to avoid the main issues that we had in 2023, mainly related to important SRS outbreak that we had in one area, that represents more or less 40% of the harvest of the year. So we are trying to avoid that with several measures to reduce the cost for the full year in 2024, the farming cost.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

And finally, I think there is a question on capital expenditure, do you expect in the coming years?

Well, in the coming years, it's a very open question. Coming years, it's 10 years, it's 5 years, it's 1 year. On 2024, we are very conservative, and we are restraining and contained our capital expenditure to what is needed to keep up the assets and particularly with a focus on the new sites that are opening up in the 11th region to confront these environmental and/or sonographic risk that we are envisioning. Further into 2024, it will depend on the market condition, company condition, capital markets and so on. So I can say...

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Actually, it's going to be very similar to last year, the capital expenditure, a little above the depreciation level. So very controlled CapEx. And as Ricardo mentioned, 80% of the CapEx expenditure is going to be invested in sea farms -- in new sea farms. So moldings, ex-cages and nets in relation to our program.

[Ricardo Garcia Holtz, executive]

Okay. I think that with that, we completed the report. I would appreciate very much if you can take a few minutes to respond to the survey because the survey will serve you next time because we'll do better in reporting. So thank you very much, and see you next time.