Salmones Camanchaca SA

SGO:SALMOCAM

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Ola Trovatn, analyst]

Welcome to Salmones Camanchaca Third Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. My name is Ola Trovatn. I'm an equity research analyst at DNB Markets, and we are hosting this presentation for the company.

Before I hand the word over to CEO, Manuel Arriagada; and CFO, Daniel Bortnik, I would just like to remind everyone to click on the link posted in the Q&A tab and fill out the survey at end of this presentation to improve future presentations.

And with that, I'll leave the word with you, Manuel.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Okay. Thank you very much. Good morning, and good afternoon to everyone, and welcome to the presentation of the third quarter results for 2023. In this opportunity, Daniel Bortnik, the corporate CFO of the company and myself will cover the presentation. I would also thank DNB for hosting the presentation in this opportunity.

This is the agenda for today, as usual, during the presentation, we will cover the highlights of the quarter, the key operational aspects, the market conditions, and we will analyze the financial results.

Finally, we will look into the future activity estimates, and we will conclude with a summary of the key takeaways from the presentation.

So let's start with the highlights of the quarter. Okay. So first, the total operating revenues for the quarter had a reduction of 14% compared with the same quarter of the previous year. Mainly due to our reduction in the sales price.

It's important to note that the most significant impact on the quarter's results was precisely the decline in Atlantic prices, which decreased by 13% compared with the same quarter of the previous year.

Despite the price drop, the company maintained a superior price achievement compared to the market reference due to its flexible commercial and format strategies.

In relation to the volumes, the quarter experienced a substantial increase in activity levels, reaching 17,700 tons of harvest. Marking the highest processed volume in a quarter in 4 years. Of this volume, only 11,000 tons were sold, resulting in an increase in the inventory levels for the quarter, totaling 9,000 tons of inventory at the end of the quarter.

The total EBITDA was $2.9 million, and the total EBIT per kilo was negative $0.16. These results were also affected by two factors: First one, it is a provision of $3.1 million for unsold inventories, mostly Coho salmon, which had a higher cost than their respective sales price estimate. This is a onetime provision. And the second effect is $1 million cost due to an extraordinary mortality due to oxygen decrease back in July of this year.

Regarding the farming costs, the ex-cage cost for the quarter was $4.69 per kilo lightweight, which was $0.20 lower than the second quarter, but still 13% higher than the same quarter of the previous year. This high farming cost was influenced in the quarter by the harvest from 2 sites, representing 70% of the quarter's harvest which were affected by an SRS outbreak and also high sea lice infestations.

On the other hand, primary and secondary processing costs were $0.19 per kilo WFE. That was a decrease compared to the same quarter of the last year and also a decrease compared with the previous quarter, positively influenced by the high harvest volume.

For the full year, we expect total harvest between 54,000 tons and 58,000 tons, considering all species, with Atlantic salmon representing 80% of them. For the next year, Atlantic will grow by 10% to reach 50,000 tons.

Finally, and in relation to Coho salmon, we have experienced particularly weak demand this year. And additionally, we see some signs of a slight growth in the supply. Given these factors, the company has opted to limit the stocking of this species for the next year and the partial elimination of hatchery fish was undertaken. We will cover that aspect during the presentation also.

Let's go to the financial highlights. Okay. As I mentioned, the revenue increased in the quarter totaling $82 million, but decreased by 14% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. The quarterly EBITDA was $2.9 million, which is $22.6 million lower than the third quarter of the previous year, primarily impacted by falling prices and also higher farming costs. Taking into account both Atlantic and Coho, the EBIT margin decreased to a marginal negative of $0.16.

The quarterly EBIT per kilo for Atlantic was $0.05 positive and for Coho was negative $0.54. The cumulative figures as of September of this year total an EBITDA of $32.6 million and revenues of $259 million, obtaining an EBITDA margin of 12.5%.

Let's go to next slide, growth in harvest and stockings. As you can see in the harvest evolution graph on the right, the Q3 Atlantic harvest was a record volume, but aligned with our projections for the quarter. We have completed approximately 80% of the harvest plan for the full year and anticipate finishing the remaining 20% in the last quarter, resulting in total harvest for the year, ranging between 44,000 tons and 46,000 tons of Atlantic. Additionally, annual Coho harvests are expected to total between 10,000 tons to 12,000 tons.

In relation to the stockings, the total stocking for 2023 is higher for both Atlantic and Coho with a particularly significant increase in Coho with double destockings, consistent with our diversification and risk mitigation strategy.

Regarding the Chilean industry stocking as of September, there has been an increase of 2% for Atlantic and 5% increase for Coho.

Operational review. The Atlantic biology, the light fish mortality on the left graph was negatively impacted in the quarter due to an extraordinary mortality event in July, caused by oxygen deficiency affecting 1 site, along with increased infectious mortality in August and September, mainly due to the SRS bacteria.

Consequently, we experienced higher mortality rates in the quarter compared to the industry average, as you can see in the graph, deviating from the trend observed in the previous months.

However, when we analyze the cumulative data for growth sites for 2023 in the chart on the right, all indicators were better than the industry average. This includes mortality rates, conversion, growth, harvest weight and the length of the cycle, with the sole exception being antibiotic usage. Antibiotics were necessary in the quarter in sites affected by SRS bacteria.

Next slide, Atlantic farming cost, okay? Regarding the evolution of the ex-cage cost, this Q3, we had a decrease of $0.29 compared to the previous quarter. However, it was higher than the same period of the last year, $4.69 per kilo compared with $4.17 per kilo. The cost increase was primarily attributed to incidence of SRS and sea lice in 2 sites, which represents 70% of the quarter's harvest.

Concerning the long-term cost trend in the last 3 years, there has been an approximate increase of $1 per kilo. This increase is mainly attributed to higher feed costs, inflations in services and products and also mitigation measures implemented to mitigate bloom and oxygen events.

In relation to the total cost. Next slide, please. The total cost that includes farming plus primary and secondary processing. The total operational cost for the quarter was $6.02 per kilo, which was $0.83 lower than the previous quarter, but still 9% higher than the same quarter of the last year.

The cost of the primary and secondary processing was $0.98 per kilo WFE, reflecting a decrease of $0.51 compared to the previous quarter and also a 5% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. So good evolution of the processing cost. These costs in the quarter was positively influenced by an increase in the harvested volume and negatively impacted by 9% appreciation of the Chilean currency during the quarter compared to the previous year.

If we look at the right graph, we illustrate the monthly breakdown of the total cost for the current year. As shown, the highest operational cost was reached in June of this year. And since then, there has been an ongoing process of gradual reduction and normalization. We expect the same trend for the last quarter of this year.

Atlantic farming sustainability indicators. Regarding the sustainability indicators for closed sites in the third quarter of this year, we observed positive results. First, the fish in fish out ratio is below 0.5, that is aligned with our sustainability loan targets. Additionally, there have been positive developments in the cycle length and antibiotic consumption compared to the same quarter of last year and also compared with the third quarter of 2021, that is the comparable year in terms of farming.

As mentioned, there was an increase in the consumption of antiparasitic agents for sea lice treatments compared to the previous year due to high sea lice infestation in the sites during the quarter.

During the last 12 months, the ASC Aquaculture Stewardship Council certified biomass, reached 67%, representing a decrease of 10 points compared to the cumulative value from the previous year. It was negatively affected by the higher proportion of antiparasitic usage.

Let's go to markets. Okay. Atlantic salmon price unvaried, American fresh fillets evolution. Regarding the price evolution in the main market throughout the year, we observed a price increase in the first quarter, followed by a decline in the second quarter, which is coinciding with a 7% increase in the Chilean harvest during the second quarter. But in the third quarter, there was a significant recovery in the first half of the quarter, followed by a slight decrease.

During the third quarter, the Chilean supply decreased by 4%, while simultaneously, the demand for seafood in the United States market was weak in general, and decreased by 6%.

The oil supply for this year is expected to remain stable with only a 1% expected growth. However, due to the weaker demand, the overall price level has been below compared to last year level.

Next slide. If we now look at the Salmones Camanchaca Atlantic price achievement, during the third quarter, the price of Salmones Camanchaca decreased compared to the previous month, but we managed to remain above the market benchmark.

The Salmones Camanchaca price was $0.47 per kilo higher than the market preference during the quarter. As usual, the company's strategy, which includes flexibility in formats and markets allowed for the maintenance of more stable and higher price levels compared to market references.

Let's go to next slide, a detail of the value-added strategy mix. As you can see in the graph, during this quarter, the American markets maintains its position as the company's primary market with 30% share followed in this quarter by sales to the euro Asian sector with a 32% share.

There was, in the quarter, a significant increase in the proportion of sales of frozen whole salmon, HOG Frozen, precisely to the euro Asian market. which provided better pricing opportunities.

Similarly, during the quarter, there was a substantial increase in the proportion of the frozen product sales, reaching at 67% share. This shift was driven, of course, by the better pricing opportunities offered by the frozen format compared to the fresh formats.

Let's go to Coho price developments. Okay. The chart shows the evolution of the Coho price and also the evolution of the devaluation of the Japanese currency. In relation to the price evolution of Coho during this year, this graph illustrates a significant decrease, starting mainly from July.

This price production is strongly influenced by 3 factors: the first one is the growth in the Chilean supply. The increase in Chilean Coho supply in recent years since 2019 has contributed to market dynamics and pricing trends. That is 1 point. The second point is the high dependency on the Japanese market. The industry -- the Chilean industry heavily relied on the Japanese market, which represents 2/3 of the total Coho sales for the industry. That has played a crucial role in, of course, influencing the prices. And third, as I mentioned, a significant depreciation of the Japanese currency. So a substantial devaluation of the Japanese currency by 14% over the year and 30% over the last 2 years, has further impacted the Coho prices.

These challenging market conditions in Japan have led to an increased competition in other markets, resulting in an overall decline in product prices.

Let's go to our Coho strategy, in formats and markets. Despite the challenges mentioned before, our Coho marketing strategy is focused on 2 key opportunities. The first one is to develop new markets [indiscernible], in order to diversify our customer base and in order to mitigate the impact of market-specific factors and second, to have production mix flexibility.

As part of our strategic initiatives, we are working on increasing the percentage of value added in our production mix, allowing us to adapt to changing market demands and potentially enhance profitability.

In the third quarter, Latin America and North America together represents 2/3 of the total market share, indicating a significant presence in these regions. Moreover, the value-added products reached 84% in the quarter. These strategic efforts contribute to the resilience and the adaptability of our Coho marketing approach.

I will turn off Daniel Bortnik for financial review.

[Daniel Ventura, executive]

Good morning and good afternoon for those ones that are following us from Europe. After Manuel's presentation, I will focus on the quarter financial review. The EBITDA reached this quarter to $2.9 million, which is $22.6 million less than Q3 2022. The main driver was the lower salmon price with an impact of $11.5 million. Prices fell 13% for Atlantic salmon and 24% for Coho compared to the same period last year.

Secondly, during the quarter, the company faced higher cost of goods sold driven by higher ex-cage cost from the fish harvest during this quarter and the previous one, which was already explained by Manuel.

Atlantic salmon sales volume of 11,300 metric tons were 3.4% less than Q3 '22, with an effect of $900,000. During this third quarter, there is a negative effect of $3.1 million of unsold inventories with costs higher than the estimate sales prices, of which $2.5 million is from expected price reductions on the inventory of 1,700 tons of finished products in related international office not sold to final customers, of which 90% is from Coho. Also, there is $600,000 of net realizable value test to the local inventory.

Next, please. As purely explained during the quarter, total revenues decreased 14.5% to $82 million, mainly due to lower prices. These lower prices added to a higher cost and the provision of an unsold inventory as mostly Coho contributed to a decline of $23 million in EBIT.

The lower fair value of the biological asset of $6.7 million is a consequence of lower prices at the end of the quarter, higher costs driven by an increase in feed prices and risk mitigation measures implemented.

On the nonoperational outcome, higher financial expenses of $1.3 million, impacted by more debt need to finance the capital -- the company growth plan in Atlantic and Coho and the higher reference rate.

Lower results from the Trout JV are driven by the same effects on Coho, lower prices in the Japanese market due to the depreciation of the local currency which is also the main market for Trout, leaving high inventories and higher costs. In Q3 '23, the JV generated losses of $2 million in comparison to a breakeven in Q3 2022. Consequently, the company had a net loss after taxes for $5.5 million compared to a net income for Q3 '22 of $18.5 million.

Next, [indiscernible]. Salmones Camanchaca had a negative operating cash flow of $28.6 million during the quarter. Due to lower collection from sales and payment to suppliers associated to the company growth plan for Coho salmon this year and Atlantic salmon in 2024. There is a negative investment cash flow of $4.9 million, which is focused on maintaining assets and preparing Atlantic salmon farming site in the 11th region. These sites are located in areas with the strongest currents, which required greater investments compared to those in the 10th region but achieved the company's risk diversification strategy.

Positive financing cash flow of $39 million is associated with flowing down lines to finance the capital growth plan. The net financial debt is at $136 million with a ratio of net financial debt to EBITDA of 2.46x well below the limit required by the debt contract with banks, of course, 4x.

Going to the estimates. Thank you. 2023 harvest guidance is maintained at around 44,000 metric tons to 46,000 metric tons of Atlantic and more than 10,000 metric tons in Coho for a total of 2023 of around 54,000 metric tons to 58,000 metric tons.

For 2024, we have completed a good part of our Atlantic stocking aiming to harvest around 47,000 metric tons to 50,000 metric tons at 10% increase compared to 2023.

The Coho plan for season 2023 is already executed and in process of harvesting around 12,000 metric tons, of which 2/3 will be harvest during this year and the remaining next one.

In light of a weaker than expanded demand and a stronger supply signals on the Coho side, the company opted to limit this specious stocking for 2024 to 1 site. Coho '24 Harvest is estimated at 6,000 metric tons to 8,000 metric tons that include 4,000 metric tons of season 2023.

Finally, I would like to give you the main take away from the quarter, which are, first, we had a record harvest, which does not translate fully into sales. Second, high ex-cage cost due to feed cost carryover and SRS sea lice situations. Process costs are at target. Four, Atlantic prices lower than 2022 in a context of a weaker demand. Coho prices depressed due to the devaluation of the yen and more Chilean supply. Lower Coho price leads to an inventory value adjustment that is higher than expected. Profitability dropped substantially due to prices, costs and yet unsold inventory.

Finally, for 2024, we estimate Atlantic harvest 10% higher and to have half of Coho, this with an adjustment due to a weak demand.

Thank you, and we are open now to question, you may have. But before that and for improving every quarter, we kindly ask you for completing the survey that is linked in our Q&A section of this presentation.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Thank you, Daniel. And now we are waiting if there is any question from the audience.

[Daniel Ventura, executive]

Well, probably I don't know if it was too clear or there a lot of doubts, but thank you very much for participating in this meeting. Thanks DNB for hosting the presentation, and we hope to see you again in February, hope with better figures. And have a good day.

[Manuel Arriagada Ossa, executive]

Thank you very much for the audience.