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Good morning, my name is Jessa, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Itaú CorpBanca Fourth Quarter 2018 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Ms. Claudia Labbé, Head of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.
Thank you. Good morning. Thank you for joining our conference call of our fourth quarter 2018 financial results. I would like to remind you that our remarks may include forward-looking information and our actual results could differ materially from what it is discussed in this presentation. I would also like to draw your attention to the financial information included in this management discussion and analysis presentation, which is based in our managerial model that we adjust for nonrecurring events for the amortization of intangibles arising from business combination and for the tax effect of the hedge of our investment in Colombia. At the same time, we adjust the managerial income statement with additional reclassifications of P&L line in order to provide a better understanding of our performance. Please refer to Pages 9 and 10 of our report for further details.
Now Mr. Moura will continue with the presentation.
[ Thank you for joining us ] for this fourth quarter and full year 2018 conference call. Today, we'll be going through the highlights of our results for the quarter. Then we'll review in more detail how we have performed in the year 2018, and lastly, we will be sharing our perspectives for 2019.
So let's start by moving to Slide 3, where we show the highlights of our performance in the quarter. After an excellent third quarter, which came a little bit above our expectations we saw more normalized fourth quarter affected by some particular events. We ended the quarter with 8.9% consolidated managerial return on tangible equity or 9.4% when we look at our operation in Chile. We have seen further rebound in our portfolio growth rate with controlled delinquency.
When we look at revenues we saw improving trends in terms of interest margins, translating in the evolution we have seen in business volumes as well. On the other hand, the quarter was affected by higher cost of credit influenced by onetime model adjustment and by higher operating expenses.
Our last quarter of the year usually concentrated some of our yearly costs, and although up in the quarter expenses were virtually in line with what we incurred in the last quarter of the previous year. Overall, adjusting for the onetime impact in provisions, results were basically in line with what we have in the previous quarter.
Now moving forward, let's talk about the full year of 2018. Going to Page 5, we can see the same highlights, but now looking at full year results. We ended 2018 with CLP 209.6 billion in consolidated recurring net income. The strongest result since the merger posting 241% increase when compared to the previous year based on a stronger loan growth with lower delinquency, the highest net interest income in fee revenues and the lowest cost of credit since the merger, with operating expenses virtually flat when compared to 2017. A solid improvement and an important step towards the construction of competitive and sustainable results.
Now moving forward, let's move -- let's look into the performance in more detail. On Page 6, we can see how the main macroeconomic indicators are involved in 2018, and how they compare with the expectations we have set when we started the year. In Chile, we have seen an important rebound in economic activity. This rebound came even stronger than we had initially anticipated, with GDP growing an estimate of 4% in the year. This essentially came together with an important recovery in the loan market, especially in commercial loans. And the overall portfolio ended the year with 10.2% growth, peaking above the higher end of our initial expectations. This was an important factor for a stronger performance in the year.
Another key win for our results, particularly when compared to the previous 2 years was a lower real interest rates, which positively affected our banking book positions in Chile. As for Colombia, economic growth also came a little bit above expectations, with a positive surprise in construction and durable goods sectors. This didn't immediately translate in a rebound in loan growth that we expected, as the consumption of high existing stocks hindered a strong expansion of growth investments.
Moving to Page 7, we can see how we fared in this scenario compared to the main performance metrics and objectives we have shared at the beginning of the year with you.
Overall, we came in line or better in every metric, but loan growth in Chile, which ended a little bit below the low end of our expectation. We kept a good pace on the evolution of our retail business in the country as we'll see more detail further ahead. And cost of credit presented an important convergence to the levels we see as more natural to our business.
Because of our continuous focus on managing and looking for opportunities on improving our efficiency, adjusted noninterest expenses, which exclude depreciation and amortization expanded only 2.2% in the year, below the CPI and much lower than the industry average as we will see ahead.
In Colombia, despite of -- the weaker conditions that we expected in the loan market, we delivered results above our breakeven target for the year on the back of strong cost control and lower loan losses.
Moving to Slide 8, which show that we ended 2018 with an 11% return on tangible equity, or 13.3% for our operation in Chile on a stand-alone basis. This is an important mark in the gradual convergence to a sustainable level of reserves that is more in line with our peers and the value creation we want to achieve for our shareholders.
On the next 2 slides, we'll comment on the performance of each of the lines we forecasted for the year.
So on Slide 9, we see that our portfolio in Chile grew 5.5% in the year, slightly below the lower end of our expectations, as I mentioned earlier. This is the result of different dynamics on the business level. We continue to see good performance throughout the year on our retail portfolio, particularly on consumer credit. This trend that began on the second quarter of 2017 has been consistent ever since and is a key indicator of our desire for a more balanced credit portfolio.
When looking at our commercial loans portfolio, which still was a drag on overall growth in 2018, we can see a stronger performance at the margin. This came as we virtually conclude our reduction in noncore exposures comprised of positions, which we determined back in 2016, will be misaligned with the risk appetite that we have set for this bank. This effort amounted to CLP 1.5 trillion and/or about $2.3 billion, both actively or through sales or passively through natural runoff managed in the last few years. Now that we have that behind us, we can expect to converge our growth to our market pace.
Now moving to Slide 10, we see how our portfolio mix shifts under these dynamics. Because of stronger growth in our consumer portfolio, our mix keeps gradually moving towards a greater balance between wholesale and retail. Despite this being reinforced by the adjustments that we did in the wholesale noncore portfolio, retail expansion has been soft. 2,018 basis points higher than what we started the year and 33 basis points compared to what we had only to day #1. Although we have a very competitive retail market here in Chile, we have a strong focus on expanding our position through disciplined execution of our strategy in this segment.
On Slide 11, we can see our main credit indicators. An important part of our improvement in results comes from reaching our expected convergence of cost of credit to a more normalized level of 0.8% of average loans after 2 years of important adjustments in our provisions.
Total cost of credit amounted to CLP 133 billion, 44% lower than 2017, while improving coverage indicators and delinquency levels on the portfolio. Although our portfolio still has an important concentration of wholesale loans that led us to have a more notable exposure to credit events than our peers, I believe that the year of 2018 marks an important step forward and confirms that major individual exposure adjustments have been made.
On Slide 12, we present noninterest expense and evolution. Here, as reviewed in previous calls, we adjust our baseline by excluding expenses consolidated from our Colombian operations, provision expenses related to credit risk and non-recurring expenses in line with the reclassification that we do on the MD&A report.
Lastly, we removed depreciation and amortization as these are more related to long-term income generation. We then applied the same methodology to the financial system as a whole. For the third year since the merger, we consistently present a satisfactory level of expenses. Our adjusted expenses grew 2.2% in the year, below the 2.6% CPI and almost 6 percentage points below the overall industry in Chile. The important message here I think is that cost discipline in the search for efficiency opportunities is a part of our DNA and that we are creating for this bank.
Going to Slide 13, we can assess how this translates into the estimate of synergies captured throughout the past 3 years. By comparing our total -- how our expenses actually grew, which we can see on the top of the chart throughout, they would have grown at average market rates, we can measure the GAAP and estimate the synergies captured. On this basis, we calculated a total of CLP 49 billion of synergies for the first 3 years since the merger or about $76 million. This puts us closer to the lower end of our guidance that we gave on the first conference call after the merger back in 2016, where we had pointed to the expected range of accumulated synergies after the first 3 years would be between $88 million and $107 million. We believe there is still room for pursuing the intended synergies on the next couple of years.
Moving to Slide 14, we present the evolution of our results for our operations in Colombia. In 2018, we achieved the important turnaround point [ $7.6 billion ] for the year, despite the still challenging environment that we have faced. This turnaround was the result of 3 main factors. First, the normalization of our interest margins as we incorporated the effects of the normalization of market risk in our banking book.
Second, the convergence of credit costs are at more normalized level, since -- like to what we have here in Chile. And third, a strong discipline on cost management and efficiency as this is part of the culture that we are establishing for the bank.
Overall, I believe that despite the prolonged slow economic cycle in Colombia, the bank is back on track to constructing a gradually increase in sustainable results that is more in line with the overall market.
Moving to Slide 15, I'd like to highlight some of the things that we have delivered, implemented throughout 2018, on 3 building blocks for this institution. The first is to focus on client satisfaction. This past year we have implemented Itaú Unibanco’s management model for retail banking. This leverages our platforms with successful tried and tested controls, incentives, and tools for delivering fast connection between business decisions to salesforce actions. We also instrumentalized our relationship managers with tools and cockpits that allow them to better focus their daily agendas on better servicing our clients. This is all part of the development and reinforcement of the client-centric culture we view as a key part of the DNA of this bank.
The second strategic pillar is people. One of the main achievements on this front in 2018 was the full implementation of ItaĂş's meritocracy model throughout the organization. This is an important part of our way of doing things that allow us to correctly reward and incentivize people's actions, aligned with our ambition and create values to clients and shareholders. We also enhanced our talent attraction and development programs and flexibilized dress code for our employees to provide a better and modern work environment.
Finally, we are advancing with discipline and focus in our claim to digital transformation in the bank. This translates in more than 150 new releases and functionalities in line -- in our online channels and the digitalization of complex process change from the back office to the front end with our clients.
Now moving forward, let's talk about our perspectives and main goals for 2019. On Slide 17, we'll talk about our economic expectations for the year. For the Chilean market, we expected 3.2 GDP expansion, with the loan market growing between 8% and 10%. Inflation should stabilize this year at about 2.7%, and interest rate should increase an additional 50 basis point from today and close the year at 3.5%. Similarly, in Colombia, we're expecting a more positive year with a 3.3% GDP growth.
We also expect a loan book expansion between 8% and 10%, inflation rising slightly to 3.4%, and interest rates moving up to 4.75%.
Moving to Slide 18, we present our perspectives for the bank in 2019. We expect our credit portfolio to grow between 8% and 10%, while maintaining a strong growth in retail portfolio and further increasing its participation in the loan mix. Our cost of credit should remain in the range of 0.7% and 0.8% that we view is a more normalized level for this bank. We expect to maintain on our adjusted noninterest expense growing in line with inflation, which is an important challenge we set for ourselves in a market that generally grows much more above this rate. And finally, we expect our results from Columbia to continue on track, with a sustainable recovery of our profitability.
Moving to Slide 19. I would kindly ask Manuel to talk about the key strategic points for our agenda in 2019.
Thank you. Thank you, Gabriel. Good morning, everyone. I haven't had the chance of meeting every one of you personally, but as you probably know, I took over the CEO position back in January 2, and actually would have been working with my team in updating our strategic drivers for 2019, 2021. I can point out that our main agenda will be based on growth, digital transformation, client-centricity, efficiency, capital generation, and of course Columbia, that is our -- an issue that we have to deal with.
In terms of growth, as Gabriel mentioned before, we plan to expand our presence in client base in all business segments, but mainly in the retail banking sector because there we had a gap that we have to close with our competitors here in Chile, and further increase our transactionality and relationship with our client base. That as a message I can tell you that we have to grow in each business segment of the bank.
In terms of the digital transformation, as you mentioned, we -- in ItaĂş Unibanco we have a huge culture of innovation and transformation that we have to put also in place here in Chile. With that, we have to get efficiency and improvement in our user experience. This is something that we have to deal with because we have -- in 2018, we had some problems, but we're fixing them, and we want to have a seamless integration from back office to front office in terms of not just having the applications in our mobile phones, but also working on the processes behind all that.
And in terms of client-centricity, our -- all banks mentioned that we have -- we are analyzing a new segmentation model with well-defined identity and value proposition. Of course, that we didn't have value proposition for each of the segments. However, with our teams, we are reevaluating and updating that proposition.
In terms of efficiency, Gabriel also mentioned that we're looking forward to growth just with the CPI. We're putting a lot of pressure on continuously increasing the efficiency of our operations here in Chile and as well in Colombia, until then [ we will have our full consolidation model to product level ].
And in terms of capital generation, this is also a challenge, where Gabriel is going to mention something after I finish, but we have to improve with managing capital allocation through adequate cost of equity in each of the segment as well. And as I mentioned, Columbia, we have been traveling to Columbia in 3 weeks and planning to do so during the rest of the year because this is an operation that is facing in a different environment with different challenges, but it's facing the same challenge that we have in Chile, which is growth, growth in our client base, growth in profitability and in efficiency. So I'm looking forward to meeting you personally shortly in the next conference. Gabriel?
Fantastic. Thank you so much, Manuel. If we can move to Slide 20 to give you an update on something that we did for you. Aligned with our full focus on shareholder satisfaction, we have recently launched this year our new Investor Relation website. The new site focuses on providing information and tools, investors and analysts need to make the most effective definitions. On this site, you will experience a better browsing and improvement in the visibility of its content and optimized responsive design, and we have gathered the best references from major investments -- Investor Relations websites around the world. Also note that we have now made available e-mail alerts in the new sections, such as stock board with interactive charts, future presentations and frequently asked questions.
We aim that this new tool will provide you with better quality information and smooth navigation at ir.itau.cr. To close our presentation and before opening to our Q&A session, I would like to comment on the material facts that we have published earlier this morning. As previously disclosed in December 2016, Helm had initiated an arbitration process against ItaĂş CorpBanca regarding the sale of its 19.44% participation on ItaĂş CorpBanca Columbia. During the course of the proceedings, Helm demanded us to acquire its shares at a price that would have totaled approximately $850 million with interest. Yesterday, a 3-member tribunal of the International Court of Arbitration in New York rejected Helm's demand and ordered Helm to sell its shares of ItaĂş CorpBanca Columbia at approximately $299 million with interest.
Notwithstanding that, we are reviewing and analyzing the decision and its next steps. We intend to purchase the shares from Helm. This price of $299 million implies a valuation multiple of 1.36x book value of ItaĂş CorpBanca Columbia as of December 31, 2018, and is consistent with valuations of ItaĂş CorpBanca Columbia in ItaĂş CorpBanca's consolidated financial statements.
The acquisition, when completed, will result in an estimated impact of 0.8 percentage points on ItaĂş CorpBanca's common equity Tier 1 capital ratio on a fully loaded basis, under Basel III standards, using exchange rates as of February 28, 2019.
The purchase of shares of ItaĂş CorpBanca Columbia by ItaĂş CorpBanca will be subject to regulatory approvals in Colombia, Chile and in Brazil. We have always believed that Helm's claims was without merit, and acquiring the shares was not our initial expectations when discussing this matter. However, we are pleased that the tribunal order reject Helm's attempt to obtain an inflated value for its shares. Moreover, this decision will cost the termination of the shareholder's agreement with Helm, enabling ItaĂş CorpBanca to implement business decisions and strategies more efficiently.
In addition, it allows us to move forward and better focus management time and resources on further development of our business in Columbia. We will keep you posted as we always have on further news and developments on this matter. Given that the decision just came down last evening, we cannot comment further at this time.
And now we close our presentation, and we'll be glad to ask if you have any questions.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Gabriel NĂłbrega from Citi.
I actually want to make a follow-up on this material fact, which you have recently issued. Could you maybe explain to us why are the differences between what Helm actually wants and what the bank will have to pay are so different? And also have you really studied when and if you will make this payment?
Sure. Helm's valuation is based on their own evaluations with the subject that they had when they filed for the arbitration process. Our evaluation and the valuation that was used on this discussion is based on what we have on our financial statements that is consistent with our calculations for goodwill that we have for Colombia as well, but I cannot go into much detail as for Helm's valuation. We expect to conclude this transaction after we review all the regulatory proceedings of this, approving -- reviewing the results and also approving this with the regulators in Chile, Colombia and also in Brazil.
All right. That's very clear. And if you may allow me a follow-up here. I see that you have already calculated what is going to be the impact to your common equity Tier 1 ratio? But have you also made any estimates with relation to your results?
We don't believe that this transaction has an impact on results. All the acquisitions are direct impact in the shareholders' equity. We haven't did an estimate on acquisition dilution so far for the results of this year, given that we have to buy the shares and have 20% in Colombia, but we'll keep you posted as we have more results on this.
And if you allow me to make a second question, it's actually regarding asset quality. During the quarter, we saw better increase to your provisions. And you say in your release that it's mainly due to an adjustment of your retail model in Chile. Could you maybe give us more color on what happened here? And why you had to make this adjustment?
Every year we review our credit models in retail, especially the model of concession of credit and provisions of credit that we have for groups of clients and retail. And we have estimates for probabilities of the following loss given defaults that we applied for our provisions. So in this early process that we do, this revision we are incorporating, new information from the behavior of our clients since the merger.
With that, we did an adjustment on the model that justify about 40% of the impact that we had in this specific quarter. So I think it's part of the normal cost, course of the business that we have. So we are always fine-tuning the models that we have and the admissions of the credit. I don't think it changes our expectations towards cost of credit in the future. I think it just makes sense to reevaluate our models as we have more information of the market and our client base.
Your next question comes from the line of Jason Mollin from Scotiabank.
I wanted to follow-up on this, the NPL formation we saw in Chile, higher write-offs that we've been seeing. And specifically on this new retail credit model, what was the impact? You said 40%, is that 40% of the increase, can you quantify how many billions of Chilean pesos was related to the change in the model? And I guess that's for the portfolio that exists. You're suggesting that going forward you won't make higher provisions for retail than you were making.
If you take the delta that we have from one quarter to the other one, around 40% of this delta in provisions came from this change in estimate of the provision model that we did. Going forward, if you take a look at NPL's in Chile, they've been going down since last year. So that's the reason that we're always revisiting the models that we have. But I don't think it's a change in future cost of credit expectations we have. It's not due to this change that we did. It's not due to some specific regulations. As you know, in this year, you have a change in regulation regarding provisions in Chile for SMEs. So these adjustments that we are talking about we did them for individuals, they are not for SMEs. And we expected further this year as we implemented this new regulation. We are going to have the impact for the part of the SMEs. But in terms of cost of credit on aggregated basis, I don't think there is a material change in our expectations.
Thank you. Maybe a second question on the competitive environment. You've become, in the last years, obviously a larger player in the system. We have a competitor that is completing their merger. How have you seen the competitive environment? And any impact on spreads in any specific products, whether it's consumer, mortgage, corporate?
Sure. I think, Jason, when we take a look at the Chilean market as a whole, I think it was a market that was already well concentrated. So if you take a look at the 5 top banks, they already had a large chunk of the market. So of course, further consolidation of the market always creates an impact. But if you think about market efficiency as a whole, I don't think it's a game-changer in terms of the markets more competitive or less competitive. The market in Chile has been competitive in the last few years. I don't think there is a change on that. Spreads, there's always a discussion when -- we do react to market prices. We do see some pressure on retail. I don't think they're different from what we've been doing. I don't think that we live on prices meaning that we reduce prices in order to gain volumes. I think that we always respond to what the market is doing. And on the other hand, we need to be every time more efficient in terms of our operation, in terms of the cost that we have or issuing credit, and our ability to take a look at our models and increase our credit concession policy. If you take a look at what happened to the bank, and I think it's a testament to the models that we have is, we were able to grow more than the market and decrease the NPLs that we have. And even if you adjust this by NPL creations, you saw that this growth that we had on consumer wasn't affected at a cost or more delinquency rates. So we've been growing more than the market and we have a controlled credit expense. Of course, the market reacted to this. It will always react to this. We have been seeing a more competitive market on the consumer reaction to the market in the growth that we had. Having said that, we were able in the last few months to continue to gain market share.
Jason, if you allow me, this is Manuel, allow to complementing what Gabriel was just mentioning, this has always been a very competitive advantage market, and this is why banks and ourselves are going to put a lot of pressure on efficiency and costs. And as I mentioned before as well in our value proposition, because nowadays here in Chile and other markets around the world, the clients are looking for experiences, are looking for more freedom, mobility and many things. And this is why our competitors are doing as well. We have to update our value proposition, create client loyalty and compete in that environment that -- what I see in the future is that the competition is going to be tough. The pressure on spread is going to continue in every single segment of our client base.
[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Sebastián Gallego from CrediCorp Capital.
I have 3 questions actually. Maybe a follow-up on asset quality. Can you provide guidance on consolidated cost of credit for this year, even when including the changes in methodology that you just mentioned? Second question is regarding profitability. When you take a look at the adjusted return on tangible equity, you looked at over the course of the last 3 quarters, the trend has been down ever since 2 quarter '18 from 13.7% the trend has been downwards. Can you provide a guidance on what are your expectations for profitability for 2019 on a consolidated basis? And my last question, I know you commented on the material fact. But I'm just curious to ask a valuation of 1.4x price to book value for the -- of the Colombian operation, seems to be quite high for an operation that is still basically breakeven. What are your thoughts?
Let me answer your first question about the guidance in cost of credit. The guidance that you see here on Page 18, which is between 0.7% and 0.8%, already takes into consideration the effects that we may have on the change in provisions models by this BIF. Of course, then we're going to have -- on the mix of our portfolio we're going to have that impact on SMEs. Our expectations is that, that we might have good news in other parts of our portfolios, which are well provisioned, and if things move along to our expectations, we may have a benefit from that. So when we took a look at Chile, we're going to see 0.7% between 0.8% even with all the changes we expect. When we think about consolidated and then I think that the U.S. is about to consolidate it, we don't have any specific guidance for cost of credit in Colombia or in the consolidated. What we do see, if you want to take the other side of Colombia, is our belief that the bank should continue to improve its profitability. So we saw a shift between '17 and '18. My expectation is that in '19, we're going to see a continuous improvement. I don't think that is going to be leaps and bounds, meaning that we're going to complete convergence in one year to the level that we think it's appropriate. I think it's going to be a lineal construction through time, but we do expect better returns. On our OT trend and you mentioned the last few quarters, I think it's very difficult to project this bank quarter-by-quarter. We have all the volatilities of our more concentrated portfolio. We have all the volatility and market risk because of the hedges that we have on our Colombian operation. We didn't change our view in terms of what are the objectives for return on tangible equity for this bank. We continue to believe that it's possible for us to do a convergence to a return on tangible equity between 16% and 18%, between 3 and 5 years down the road. I think it's very challenging, but it's the challenge that we set forth for us. Quarter-by-quarter, I don't think this trend means anything regarding the profitability of the bank. We continue to be very positive. In your question about the valuation, at the end of the day, it's an arbitrage decision. So it's not up to us to discuss the value at this point as to take the decision and follow through with it. Having said that, as I mentioned, this valuation -- it is consistent to the numbers that we have in our financial statements and with the plans that we have for Colombia.
Okay, perfect. If I just may add a follow-up on maybe another question on capital. How do you feel about your position -- your capital position even when including 0.8% impact, if this transaction goes through?
Perfect. As we have previously discussed with you, we have a journey in terms of capital of converging to the new standards for the new banking law here in Chile. Our estimates are that by 2024, we should achieve a minimum set 1 of 8% according to new regulations. Of course, many of the things are still to be decided by the CMF, the new regulator body here for Chile. And we expect to have positive impacts from risk-weighted assets on credit, with negative impact by the inclusion of market risk and operational risk that as of today do not impact capital positions here in Chile. As we mentioned before, the path for this convergence of the position in capital that we're going to have after this adjustment, according to our estimate, this 0.8% impact will bring our set 1 to something around 6.4%. So we need to do a convergence from 6.4% to 8% in set 1 to achieve minimum regulatory. I think in terms from 2 value drivers, that at the end of the day converge to our ability to generate core capital, which is the convergence of the profitability levels of the bank to the ones that I've discussed before of return on tangible equity between 16% and 18% down the road and also our ability to retain profits as the dividends -- the dividend payout should be around the regulatory minimums here for Chile. That's the guidance that we have for the market. That's still the expectations we have.
There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Olivares, I'll turn the call back over to you for closing remarks.
Yes. I want to -- yes, thank you, every one of you, for being here this morning. And as I mentioned before, we are looking forward to meeting you personally and if you are in Chile please let us know to receive you here in the bank. So thank you very much for your attention this morning. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.