Empresas Copec SA
SGO:COPEC
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
5 740
7 811
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches CLP.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
This alert will be permanently deleted.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Empresas Copec Second Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call. Today's presentation and the second quarter 2023 earnings release are available on the company's Investor Relations website, investor.empresascopec.cl. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this presentation may include market outlooks and forward-looking statements, which are based on the beliefs and assumptions of Empresas Copec's management and on information currently available to the company.
They involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions because they relate to future events and therefore, depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future. Investors should understand that general economic conditions, industry conditions and other operating factors could also affect the future results of Empresas Copec and could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in such forward-looking statements.
This presentation contains certain performance measures that have been adjusted with respect to IFRS definitions, such as EBITDA. [Operator Instructions] I will now turn the call over to Mr. Rodrigo Huidobro, Chief Financial Officer of Empresas Copec. Please go ahead, sir.
Thank you all very much for joining this call. Welcome, everyone. We will be taking a look at the results of the second quarter of 2023. We are being [indiscernible] with people from our Investor Relations department, led by Mr. Cristian Palacios; and also people from Arauco led by Mr. Gianfranco Truffello. They will be joining us at the end of the presentation in order to help us out with the Q&A section.
Having said that, let me start flipping through the presentation. We will be taking a look at the consolidated results. We will also be taking a look at each business division. We will also review the main highlights of the quarter, and then we will end with a Q&A section for which we ask you to please send your questions via the platform. The executive summary for the quarter is shown on screen here. We, of course, showed lower results year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, and that is explained essentially by drops in our 2 main sectors, the Forestry sector and the Energy sector.
In the Forestry division, we are seeing a scenario of lower prices for pulp, lower prices for panels in general. And we are also seeing some drops in volumes in case of the Q-on-Q. In the case of volumes, we saw segments improving and pulp increasing year-on-year. We also see -- have some nonoperating effects, essentially increased expenses from plant stoppages in the first quarter 2023, which are not there anymore; also forestry fires during first quarter 2023, which are not there anymore, of course. And on the other side, we got an insurance payment during the second quarter of 2023.
In Energy, we also see lower results with respect to the immediately preceding quarter and also with respect to the comparable quarter last year. That has to do with decreased margins, which in turn has to do with inventory revaluation effects that are negative in this case and some drops also in industrial margin, which were very, very high during last year.
We saw some volume decrease, mostly in Chile and Colombia. We'll go into further detail when we move on to the presentation. In terms of projects, we are seeing a good development of the ramp-up of MAPA. We see production increasing as expected. In the case of the Valdivia Mill, which you remember was closed during several months this year and last year due to a fire that occurred last year, we are resuming operations in the Valdivia Mill.
We are also highlighting the fact that we have been ratified in our international rating both by Fitch and S&P, BBB with stable outlook. Also doing a lot in terms of ESG. This is a company in which ESG makes part of the essence of the company, of the essence of the business. We are highlighting there that we became shareholders in Ampere Energy, which is a company that allows for energy -- electrical energy, electrical power optimization and intelligent management of electrical powering and storage as well.
Arauco issued sustainable bonds in the local market in Chile and Copec Wind Venture, which is our venture capital arm, was awarded a recognition in the local market. Moving on to the main figures here, we will [Technical Difficulty].
Just wait a moment. We will reconnect, Rodrigo. Please, Mr. Rodrigo, share the presentation again and you can resume the conference.
Okay. Thanks for waiting. Sorry about that, we had a technical issue here. So I was talking about the numbers here, the $441 million, which is definitely lower than last year and also lower than the immediately preceding quarter. We have made some corrections here to the numbers in order to make them comparable with the preceding quarters.
Mapco is not consolidated anymore. Remember that we reached an agreement for the sale of Mapco, and therefore, we are not consolidating anymore. So we have presented the comparable quarters, the preceding quarters here, net of Mapco's EBITDA, which is detailed there in the footnote. And so this is all net of Mapco's EBITDA. The $441 million, of course, does not include Mapco's EBITDA. And we have also made an adjustment to immediately preceding quarter to the first quarter '23 in relation to nonoperating depreciation. So $441 million, which compares unfavorably, of course, with the comparable quarters because we are coming out of 2 years in which we recorded exceptional results.
Remember that we had a very good environment -- pricing environment for pulp, likewise for panels and also we did very well in our field segment with high inventory revaluation effects and also high industrial margins. In terms of net income, we reached $59 million, which is also lower than the immediately preceding quarter and also lower than the second quarter 2022. The comparison for the EBITDA here, remember, we recorded $441 million in comparison with $1 billion last year in the second quarter of 2022. The main differences there are represented by Arauco and Copec. In the case of Arauco, Forestry sector, it decreased because of drops in prices in pulps and panels together with that lower volumes of the wood products segment.
The Energy sector was also lower. We had here some unfavorable inventory revaluation effect and also a drop in industrial margins together with some rises in costs. In terms of net income, a very similar profit here. We're comparing it with the second quarter 2022. And the decrease is from $382 million to $59 million. The main decreases, once again, because of operational reasons, are represented by Arauco and Copec. Together with that, we have an increase in Metrogas, which is related to a negative effect last year.
Just to remind you, we recorded a provision here. Last year, in the second quarter of 2022, a onetime provision, which is related to an adverse ruling that we had in a lawsuit in Argentina. That's the first [indiscernible] lawsuit. So Metrogas may still appeal, and we recorded it as a onetime hit noncash, of course, in the second quarter 2022. And that is not there anymore, of course, in this quarter. So that's the difference -- the positive difference represented by Metrogas.
We're also highlighting there Alxar, which is the parent company of Mina Justa. Mina Justa had good results this quarter, which are linked essentially to a very good production and sales. So we had better volumes than last year. Moving on here to further detail in the net income. We are seeing, of course, a drop in the operating income and an improvement in the nonoperating income.
Operating income, as we already said, is related to operational elements, both in the Forestry and in the Energy division. In Forestry, lower prices and lower volumes. In Energy, we had lower volumes, but also an adverse effect in inventory revaluation and also a drop in industrial margins. In the case of the nonoperating income, several things to highlight here. We have higher profits in associates, and that's because of the Metrogas provision, which was there in the second quarter. It was registered recording the second quarter of 2022, and it has not recorded this quarter -- not recorded again this quarter.
We also have an increased other income, which is related to an insurance payment that we received during the quarter in relation to the Valdivia Mill stoppage of $72 million. And in relation to the adverse effects, we have increased financial expenses -- net financial expenses for a difference of $67 million. All in all, we came to a net income of $59 million, which is $323 million less than last year in this quarter. In relation to our financial ratios, we have, of course, a drop in our operating margins, our EBITDA margins and also in our returns. We also have an increase in our net debt to EBITDA, which is already at 3.5x, and we are coming from very low levels of less than 2x, and now we're at 3.5x.
This is cyclical for us. Remember that we are in a highly cyclical business, which is pulp. And therefore, what makes sense for us here is to monitor these figures on a long-term basis. We actually have -- as you well know, we have a financial policy that sets some limits here in terms of our indebtedness, but measured in a long-term 5-year basis. That makes a lot of sense because of the cycles that we have. In terms of financial debt maturities, we have a well-balanced debt schedule for the coming years. We have several maturities happening this year and the next one, and we have already proceeded to refinance a significant portion of those maturities as we will see further on during the presentation with some bond issuances that we will refer to.
If we move on to the review by business division and starting out with Forestry, of course, which is our most important business in a long-term basis, we can see that Arauco's EBITDA is down to $164 million, which compares unfavorably with the second quarter 2022, where we recorded $609 million, very high EBITDA at that point in time. We have dropped in pulp, panels and sawn timber prices. We have lower panels and sawn timbers volumes, partly offset by an increase in pulp in terms of volumes. And we also have an effect in costs. We have higher production costs and selling costs, which essentially refer to the start-up of MAPA.
In terms of nonoperating income, we also have some significant effects here. As we said, we have a onetime nonrecurring insurance payments related to the Valdivia Mill. This accounts and covers essentially what the business interruption portion of insurance. So therefore, in some sense, it is operational as well because it covers the EBITDA that was lost during the stoppages of the Valdivia Mill. We expect to receive some more during the coming quarters in this regard. We also have lower expenses -- lower other expenses also because of insurance. We continue to receive insurance related to the forest fires that happened at the beginning of the year. In this particular case, this quarter, we had $25 million of additional insurance for that concept. And as we said before, we also have general financial expenses that go up, and that is because the debt level goes up also because of inflation when we talk about local currency.
And essentially, in the case of Arauco, it has to do with the fact that financial expenses were capitalized during the MAPA construction. And of course, they are not being capitalized anymore. So they are being recorded in the income statement, which is different from what happened during the construction of the MAPA facility.
In the Pulp division, year-on-year, we have seen EBITDA going down, of course, and that is explained by lower prices and also by increased unit selling costs. As we said before, we have quite significant increases in unit selling costs. A large portion of that has to do with the ramping up of MAPA. Q-on-Q, we see lower prices, partly offset by higher volumes. We are seeing some possibilities to sell more. And therefore, we have 16% of higher volumes in relation to the previous quarter.
We also have some increases in unit selling costs in the Q-on-Q comparison. We are seeing a pulp market that is essentially volatile and weak. We are seeing inventory levels that are way above historic leverages. We are seeing also an increase in fiber supply. We -- remember that MAPA is ramping up. And also we have UPM's mill ramping up. Together with that, we have seen low season beginning, which usually means a decreased demand.
China has been stabilizing a little bit. We are seeing a slight rise in demand, which may have to do with restocking. However, also, we are seeing increased supply within the Chinese market. In Europe, we are seeing a very abrupt changes with respect to the situation that we saw last year. Last year, we used to see very good prices in Europe and very good demand. And this year, we are seeing demand for paper remaining low, which, of course, translates into lower demand for pulp as well. And during the quarter, we saw the tissue industry weakening further with short and long fiber reductions for prices.
Also in relation to dissolving pulp, we saw prices going down slightly, having to do with the beginning of the low season. In our particular case, for our production during the second quarter, we saw our production affected by the maintenance of Nueva Aldea and Montes del Plata, which were scheduled. And additionally, we had a brief stoppage of the Valdivia Mill because of the replacement of the equipment.
MAPA continues to ramp up as expected, and we will go into further detail on that as we go along the presentation. In terms of the outlook for pulp, we have seen local demand increasing a bit in China, as I said, in some grades of paper. And therefore, some possibilities to increase prices a little bit. And as you see in the graph there, prices have been rebounding a little bit. And they're now more in line with what is the marginal cost of the industry, the new marginal cost of the industry after the inflation period that we have seen for costs. In Europe, as we said, we saw a very abrupt change in the level of prices and the low demand in Europe has also triggered additional supply in China.
So in general, it is a weak market with some opportunities for price increases. The wood products division has also changed quite significantly. We used to see, during the last 2 years, a very strong demand and a very strong market for these products. We recorded EBITDA levels of more than $300 million per quarter for this division during the last 2 years -- during several quarters over the last 2 years. That, of course, was extraordinary and had to do with a very high demand for construction materials in general during and immediately following the pandemic. That is not there anymore. We are -- we have seen many markets weakening their demand for wood products.
However, over the last months, we have seen them stabilizing back again. Now as you can see there, we recorded an EBITDA of $152 million, which is pretty much in line with our historical EBITDA. So we are, of course, far from the extraordinary levels of more than $300 million that we recorded during the last 2 years, but we are already in line with a stable market and we have historical levels.
You can see there, prices still falling, but volumes, in general, recovering on a quarter-to-quarter basis. The North American market, which is more than 50% of our total sales, is quite stable. In the particular case of MDF, we're seeing higher supply from Brazil, which is putting pressure in the market. And also, we are seeing a weaker demand, which, of course, has to do with the higher interest rates and the lower construction activity.
The situation is better in particle boards, where we don't have competition from other countries. We do not have these exports that we do have in the MDF segment. Same things for remanufactured products. We have seen that market stabilizing and normalizing in terms of price levels and also in terms of volumes. In the plywood market, we are seeing stability with a very good balance of supply and demand, and therefore, we see opportunities for this market to strengthen during the coming quarter. In general, North America is a stable market and with some possibilities for improving the situation there. South and Central America is our second most important market. Brazil is possibly our weakest market. At this point in time, we are seeing some new capacity coming on stream there. And therefore, that has given way to increase exports from Brazil, which, of course, affects our other markets.
In Chile, we have also seen some weakness, although prices for remanufactured products have stabilized. We are seeing some weakness because of construction activity basically. Argentina, on the other hand, seems stable and with a good demand, and we see a good support for prices in Argentina. We see that, that could continue for the rest of the year and then especially holds in MDF and value-added products.
The other markets are smaller. We also sell to Asia and Oceania and also Europe and Middle East. Same pattern in general, increased supply and also some stability over the last few weeks.
Moving on to Energy. Let me move on to Copec here. Copec has recorded an EBITDA of CLP 141 billion compared to the second quarter '22 when we recorded CLP 274 billion. That is, of course, a very abrupt drop in EBITDA. That has to do with the fact that we also recorded extraordinary results during the last 2 years in distribution having to do with inventory revaluation, which were positive during the high portion of the quarters in the last 2 years and having to do also with some industrial margins where volumes were especially high and also margins were especially high during some quarters.
So in this particular case, we see a drop in inventory revaluation, both in Copec and Terpel, also lower industrial margin in Chile, in particular, having to do with less volumes and also smaller margins. In general, volumes dropped. Total volumes dropped 3% in Copec in Chile and 1% -- 1.5% in Terpel. We are also seeing some increases in distribution costs related to marketing leases and maintenance.
Just to mention to the lubricant segment, which has been doing very well. We have seen good margins. And in general, stable volumes, a slight drop in volumes possibly, but in general, very stable, and this has been doing in general, very well, both in Chile and Colombia. In terms of the operational factors here, we are seeing a market share of 58.3%, which is pretty much in line with our historical market share. This is a figure as of June 2023, which is the last when we have -- the last official figure we have.
The fuel volumes in Chile dropped, as I said before, by 3%. In the case of the industrial channel, we have a drop of 6.5% Q-on-Q and 2.1% year-on-year. That is essentially explained by a drop in power generation volumes, volumes sold to power generation players, which in turn has to do with a better hydrology scenario in Chile. So we've had more hydro generation and less thermal generation in Chile, and that explains a big portion of the drop in industrial volumes and also in industrial margins.
In the case of gas station, we also saw a drop, and that has to do with the very strong activity that we saw immediately following the pandemic and also with the economic situation in general in Chile. Moving on and looking at the outlook, we are seeing that margins could continue to be affected by potentially unfavorable FIFO effects, inventory revaluation effects and also some potential decreases in industrial margins, which, as I said, were extraordinarily good during the last 2 years.
We continue to have a leadership position in our gas station network. Volumes also could be affected by lower economic activity in Chile, in particular. And in general, in the countries in which we are doing business. As for Terpel, which we are showing on the screen there, we are seeing EBITDA going down with respect to last quarter and also with respect to the second quarter of 2022 from COP 480 billion to COP 262 billion. Once again, there's a strong effect here of inventory revaluation.
As you well know, the oil prices going down and oil products prices -- refined products prices going down in general means that we record an unfavorable inventory revaluation effect. And that has happened in Colombia, Panama and Dominican Republic as well.
In terms of liquid fuels, we decreased 1.5% at the aggregate Terpel level. We saw drops in Colombia and Ecuador offset to some extent by increases in Peru and Panama. We are doing very well in Peru, selling to fuel retailers. We have a small position there, but we have increased our position quite significantly. And also, we are seeing a good situation in Panama, where the comparison base is very low. We had a low performance there last year, essentially because of some interruptions in relation to some local social revolts.
So all in all, as I said, 1.5% decrease in Terpel. Sorry, one thing I forgot to mention. Terpel is the fact that we also have a onetime effect in relation to a write off coming from accounts receivable. That has to do with the aviation inventories, where we had to write off an account receivable related to one particular airline that was finally unable to pay its account receivable.
Also very good performance in lubricants in Terpel, and that's something to highlight. In Abastible, we are also -- we are seeing an improvement. We had gone through periods of low margins because of very, very high propane prices. So the raw material that we use, that is the propane. The propane was very, very high during the last couple of years. That has low -- go down a little bit. And therefore, there has been room to increase -- go back to -- or gradually go back, move towards the historic levels in margins.
Together with that, we have very good volumes -- industrial volumes in general in Chile and Colombia. Very good position, very good competitive position in Abastible in general in all the countries in which it operates, particularly in Peru, where we have seen a very good -- a very successful commercial strategy. And therefore, we have seen volumes increasing by 10.6%. So this is more detail on the performance of Abastible in all of its geographies.
As I said, we have a better EBITDA than last year, and that relates to a large extent with a good performance in Peru, where we saw a 10% increase in volumes in relation to a good commercial strategy. And we are also seeing some good performance in some particular channels in Peru, in Colombia and Chile. Particularly in the industrial channel, we are seeing a good performance related to an expansion of our client base, again because of a successful strategy that has a lot to do with energy transition and offering clients whole energy solution based on liquid gas, but also on other forms of energy. Ecuador has been very stable during this year.
In terms of our other investments, what we particularly highlight here is Cumbres Andinas, which is the parent company of Mina Justa in Peru -- the copper mine in Peru [indiscernible] 40% stake. We had a very good EBITDA amounted to $204 million for the quarter. That's the whole of Mina Justa. We own 40% of that. That gave way to Alxar, which is the parent company through which we own this mining asset. Alxar recording a net income of $47.9 million for the quarter. So good performance of Mina Justa and good performance of Alxar. That has to do with production that has been very stable.
Sales also have been very stable and higher than in the second quarter 2022. Price is a little lower and cost has also been stable at our budgeted level, which is around 1.4 cash cost dollars per pound. So in general, good performance of Mina Justa. Among the other related companies, once again, highlight -- I would like to highlight the increased result in Metrogas because of the quite significant provision that we recorded in the second quarter of 2022, which is linked to this lawsuit that is taking place in Argentina where Metrogas still has the opportunity to appeal.
So once again, this is a noncash effect that took place in the second quarter of 2022, which is, of course, recorded again in this particular quarter. So an increase in income coming from Metrogas. The main highlights of the quarter. Regarding MAPA, we continue to produce according to the program, the ramping up program that we had. So the volumes have increased over the last few months. And we've had a positive feedback from clients in relation to the quality of the pulp that is being produced.
As of July, we recorded more than 300,000 tonnes -- 325,000 tonnes produced and more than 80% of prime quality pulp. We expect to move up in the ramping up curve for MAPA and to achieve full capacity during the first quarter of 2024. As we said before, we had the Valdivia mill resuming operations. Valdivia mill was affected by a fire during 2022, and that meant that it had to stop during several months in 2022 and also in 2023. So it has resumed operations at the beginning of August this year.
This is a mill that produces 550,000 tonnes of dissolving pulp. And we have been recovering part of the last EBITDA here through insurance. So as we said during the presentation, we already received part of the insurance that we expect, which is $72 million. That was recorded during the first quarter of 2023. More could be received further on. As we said, we have been working in refinancing the maturities that we have in debt during this year. Part of that was done at the Terpel level.
Terpel issued bonds in the Colombian local market for amount of COP 418 billion, which is equivalent to approximately USD 105 million. Good rates for the local market and a very good operation in general for Terpel, which was rated AAA in the local rating scale by Fitch Ratings. This is, as I said, debt proceedings used for debt refinancing.
In the case of Empresas Copec, we were confirmed in our BBB rating by both Fitch and S&P. So investment grade, BBB and stable outlook and very -- a lot of attributes for our company were highlighted by both agencies among them, a healthy credit profile and a strong business position of our subsidiary companies in their respective markets.
ESG. We like to talk about the ESG developments on a quarter-to-quarter basis. We are doing a lot in these dimensions. This is a company where ESG is essential to the business. We actually participate in forestry where we have carbon absorption. That's something that not many industries can say. And in Energy, we are pushing energy transition at the South American and Latin American level through Copec and Abastible.
So there's a lot happening in ESG and some of the highlights we are presenting here. Arauco issued bonds in the local Chilean market, sustainable bonds, 3 different series of bonds for a total of more than $500 million -- $538 million. This has been rated AA in the local Chilean rating scale, and this is according to Fitch and local agency, Feller rate. And these are sustainable bonds, given that the proceeds or an amount equivalent to the proceeds of these bonds will be allocated to green projects.
In relation to energy transition, we made a further step here with the acquisition of the controlling stake in a company called Ampere Energy, which is based in Spain, but has already -- has activities -- quite significant activities in the Chilean and Colombian market. We already had a position in this company. And we increased our position with a stake of 22% in order -- sorry, by stake of 13% in order to reach a 65% share and gain control of the company.
This is approximately 12 million investment -- $12 million investment for acquiring control of the company. And this is in line with Copec strategy of opening up options to reach the customers with alternative sources of energy and alternative models of energy supply. In this particular case, Ampere is a company that offers a model of storing energy and managing energy intelligently based on an AI system for energy optimization.
So quite a good way to reach our customers with a new product and that is already happening, as I said, in Colombia and Chile with the Ampere brand, which is on a marketing basis supplied together with the Copec brand. Copec Wind Ventures is the channel that we have in order to prepare ourselves for the energy transition. One of the things we are doing for energy transition, as we said before, is exploring new opportunities of companies or models that are starting up.
There are innovative companies or business models and where we invest through a venture capital arm. Our venture capital is called Copec Wind Ventures, and we were awarded a local recognition here by some locally very reputed institutions as the best corporate venture capital in Chile. So that's a good recognition, and we are proud and thankful for that, and we continue to scout opportunities through this capital -- venture capital arm that will -- is an important part of our energy transition model, which also includes, of course, electromobility and other ways of adding value to our existing assets.
And finally, just to thank you note here, we were recognized in several categories in the institutional investor ranking. Our executives and our teams have been awarded recognitions here and prices in several categories. And just a thank you note for recognizing us here, and this is undoubtedly, of course, an incentive to continue to do things and improving things on a day-to-day basis.
So a good award here, and thank you for that. That is what we had prepared for the presentation, and we can now open up the Q&A session that is going to be moderated by Cristian and where you can send your questions through the platform.
[Operator Instructions]
Hello, everyone. Thank you for attending this webcast. We're going to start the Q&A section. We have the first one coming from Guilherme Rosito at Bank of America.
Two questions. Actually, the first one in Forestry. The second one for Rodrigo.
Gianfranco, if -- it would be great to get a bit more details regarding the outlook for pulp cash costs going forward? And if possible, the size of cost reduction you guys guided last week. We would also like to explore a bit the potential impacts of the recent heavy rains in Chile to your operations.
And the second one, in Energy. If you can comment a little bit on the outlook for demand and margins for the second half of the year across the segments and regions?
Okay. Thanks. Regarding the questions for cash cost reduction, we think that's going to be better. I cannot give you a guidance on the actual cash cost of the different mills. But to give you a reference, in the first quarter -- sorry, the first half of this year, we produced 1.6 million tonnes basically because we had a poor performance in some of our mills because of unscheduled interruption of production and also some programmed production stoppage for maintenance and also because MAPA was ramping up.
So we expect that for the total year, our production should be close to 4 million tonnes. So that means that we're going to have 800,000 tonnes more of production in the second half. And from that, about 600,000 tonnes is because of MAPA and the rest is better performance by the rest of the mills. So we should have -- because of volume of production and that's volume of sales, we should have a better cash cost because of that.
Also, there's effect of MAPA because ramping up is -- reducing the production speed and increasing the consumption of certain chemicals, especially oil is higher than normal. So as long as we get higher production levels, more stable, we should have also some reductions in variable costs. So all those aspects should bring a better cash cost for the second half as we have more stable production.
So that is our expectation, and we'll see how that translates into the actual results for the rest of the year. And regarding the heavy rains, that's correct. We -- during the last, let's say, 4 days, 5 days, we have had heavy rains in Chile, especially in the region -- in the Maule region, which is about 200 kilometers south of Santiago where we have 2 mills, the Licancel mill and the Constitución mill. And because of the overflow of the river, Mataquito, in the case of Licancel, we have to stop the mill during the weekend because the water came into the mill.
It's very similar of what happened about 2 months ago. So the mill -- that mill stopped, and we have to assess the damage of the water coming to there. It's very hard to get there because some of the bridges are down. And once we get there, we can establish how long that mill should be stopped until we make the repairs. That is a small mill. It's 150,000 tonnes of production. It's the smallest mills we have.
The other mill, Constitución, is located about 70 kilometers south of Licancel. And there, we had heavy rains also and the Maule River was overflow a little bit also. And there, we had a small damage in the water intake of the mill, not in the mill. The mill was not overflow by water, but the water intake, we had a damage because of mud coming into one of the motors that have -- operates the pumps.
And there, we expect that we will be ready to restart production probably next 4 to 5 days. That is already assessed and it shouldn't be a big stoppage of production there in Constitución. So the biggest damage most probably is in the Licancel mill, which is a very small mill, and we are assessing the damage there. And we don't have an expectation yet of how long it would take to restart production.
Thanks, Gianfranco. And there was a question on the fuel side as well regarding margins going forward. As I said during the presentation, of course, we are coming from a couple of years, 2022 and 2021, where we saw extraordinary levels for the margins at the fuel levels. They have to do with inventory revaluation, which was positive in the last 2 years and also with industrial margins, which were extraordinarily high during the last 2 years. Both of those effects have been negative during the first quarter of this year and the second quarter of this year.
What we can project for the following quarters is stability with respect to what we recorded during the first half of this year. Basically, what we have recorded, for example, in the second quarter is around $250 million for the fuels division -- for the Energy division as a whole. So that is Copec plus Abastible plus Sonacol, $243 million to be precise for the Energy division as a whole. And that seems to be sort of a stable level for -- going forward.
We might continue to see some negative effects for inventory revaluation also for some industrial margins. But on the aggregate, we should go back to the levels which were there before the pandemic, which were around, I would say, $200 million to $250 million per quarter for the Energy division as a whole. So once again, the levels that we saw during the last couple of years, which were $300 million or more than $300 million for the Energy division per quarter, are definitely not there anymore, and we should get used to the historical levels, which are, I would say, between $200 million and $250 million.
We already have -- we know that we have a negative -- slightly negative inventory revaluation effect for July. That's what we know so far. And therefore, we might continue to see these effects happening. It is useful to remind that the fuels business in general is a very stable business. So the basis is very stable. We have very stable commercial margins. And the volumes in general tend to grow in relation to GDP. So that's also very straightforward to project. But we do have some elements of volatility for those -- for the performance of the fuels business.
And they have to do essentially with inventory revaluation effects and industrial margins, which might be or might not be there or in the case of inventory revaluation, it might be positive or even negative. But all in all, to think of a stable basis, as I said before, we have to think of a range of $200 million to $250 million per quarter. Finally, just to have in mind, let me also remind you that this is a division that records its results essentially on local currency.
And therefore, the exchange rate also plays a role there in determining the level that we record per quarter. I think we've covered the question related to margins going forward with that. I think Cristian had a minor technical difficulty. He's trying to join back in.
Yes, I'm going to get the questions in the meantime until Cristian joins back. We have, Rodrigo, a question from [ Francois Salasar ] regarding Energy business. Can you provide more details on the strategy and goals regarding investments in new energy, energy efficiency and mobility? Any guidance on how much capital will be allocated to such investments?
Yes. As we've said on past occasions, we know that in Energy, we are facing a major threat, a structural threat, which is electromobility. This is a change that will completely disrupt the Energy segment as we know it and as -- in the way in which we have operated it traditionally. And although it is a long-term threat, and we know it's a long term, we will still see fuels volumes growing on a yearly basis for several years in the markets in which we operate.
But even though it's a long-term threat, we want to prepare ourselves in advance for this new scenario. And in order to do that, we are doing things -- different things along 3 lines. One is to prepare ourselves for electromobility. And actually, we have invested in charging stations all around our network, and we believe we're one of the largest players in terms of number of charging stations, both in and out of the gas station network.
We are also working in scouting new opportunities in energy, mobility and convenience, which are the 3 lines that Copec operates. Scouting new opportunities, innovative companies, and we do that through the wind ventures, corporate venture capital arm, as we said before. We already have more than 20 ventures in which we have invested, ranging from solar panels to artificial intelligence opportunities to some technologies for improving efficiency of fuels and so on and so forth.
And finally, we are investing in new ventures that we can operate and which are larger scale than the venture capital opportunities and which relates to the assets that we currently have. For example, Blue Express, which is complementary to our network of gas stations in terms of the last-mile logistics. We have invested in those kind of opportunities. We have also announced an investment in solar panels with a total capacity that will get to 150 megawatts by the end of the year, and we are doing good progress in that, which represents a $150 million investment.
So going back to Alfonso's questions, we do have that strategy. It's, for the time being, pretty much a trial and error strategy. So we are testing different options. We are opening up different options, see how they go. We might divest them going forward or we might stick to them. But the important thing is to open up options in order to be able to transform our business model in time.
The amount that we are allocating to those investments is around $50 million to $70 million per year, I would say, in electromobility plus venture capital initiatives. And of course, we have these additional opportunities that we have announced on a stand-alone basis such as Blue Express and solar panel initiative, which represent a higher amount of investments.
In the case of Blue Express, it was $200 million. In the case of the solar panels, it's $150 million. So that's -- those are the aggregated figures. The goal that Copec has made public is to be -- to have more than 50% of EBITDA coming from nonfuels, from renewable sources basically by 2050. We think that we will be getting there definitely before 2050 the way things are going. But that's the figure that has been made public for the time being. I think that covers what Alfonso was asking. I think we have Cristian back online. Not yet?
Thank you, Rodrigo. We have one for Gianfranco from [ Pamela Vargas ]. How the company sees the implementation of recent high [indiscernible]. Does the company intend to follow? And another one is considering that the price premium of dissolving pulp has been contracting, would you consider switching production from dissolving pulp to paper grade pulp?
Okay. Thanks for the question -- for the two questions. Yes, we have heard that some competitors are announcing prices increases for hardwood for China for September. We think that the fundamentals of the market are good. I mean the order file of our clients is better, I think, coming out of the summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere. So it could be a room for improving prices. But we haven't closed negotiation with our clients, of course. And that's why I cannot say anything about our price announcements for September, but we think that probably is more positive, the environment because of the fundamentals of the paper production and the demand.
So we'll see how the negotiations go. Of course, we cannot follow announcement by our competitors. We take our own competitive decisions, but we think that there could be some room to do that. And regarding the switching to dissolving pulp, we think there's still a big gap. And in the case of Arauco, since we don't reduce a lot production capacity, for us, it's less probable to switch to hardwood. So we'll most probably and our intention is to stick to producing dissolving pulp.
Also remember that the mill was stopped for quite a long time. So we need to supply our clients that have been waiting for us with lower sales during this year. So we will continue producing dissolving pulp to supply our clients.
Yes. I'm sorry, I missed the connection. Just turning back, if you can tell me what was the last question asked.
The one about dissolving pulp and the price announcement of [ Suzano ]. That was the last question.
Okay. So we are done with Comelli's questions? Okay.
Did you touch on Blue Express?
Yes, Comelli asked a question about Blue Express as well, right? That's the one we're missing. [ Go ahead ] with that one. Yes.
Okay. So how are synergies between Copec and Blue Express evolving?
Yes. Well, Blue Express is one of the companies that we bought that is along the lines of giving more value to our existing assets, through assets that complement our existing operations. In the case of Blue Express, what we envisage there is that there would be a lot of synergies between the last mile logistics and the operations of Copec's network of gas stations.
We are doing well. We already have more than 200 points in the Copec network of gas stations, which are already open. So you can already send and receive packages through Blue Express in more than 200 points in the Copec network of gas stations. So we are going forward as expected in the rolling out plan, probably still too soon to say whether that has had an effect on -- significant effect of sales of Blue Express. But at least we have prepared our network for being able to take advantage of those synergies.
So we expect that to do very well in the coming quarters. We will be giving more information as we have relevant information, still too soon. But in terms of rolling out and setting up points of deliveries and pickup in our gas station network, we're doing very well.
Okay. Thank you, Rodrigo. And the final one from Comelli. How is the company currently thinking about the balance between organic growth, M&A opportunities and shareholder remuneration in the coming years?
Yes. I think we have a history on that, and we have policies regarding that balance as well. We have a financial policy where we are forced to stick in a certain range of net debt to EBITDA. We have defined that range in 2x to 3x and never to surpass 4x. Measured, of course, in a long-term basis. Measured in a 5-year horizon basis. That makes a lot of sense, as I said, because we have cyclical businesses. So that policy will provide and will determine a lot of what we can do in terms of dividends and M&A.
We also have a policy regarding dividend that has been there for most of the time during the last 20 years or so. Has been there for 18 years at least with the exception of the period of the pandemic when we lowered EBITDA to 30%. We have always stuck to the 40% of net income policy. So we expect that to continue stable as it has been before.
Bear in mind that whenever we have excess cash coming from extraordinary operations, we have considered in the past the possibility of doing additional shareholder distributions. We went ahead with an extraordinary dividend in 2022, which stemmed from the sale of assets that took place during those years. And we may very well evaluate that in the future once again, if we are compliant with our financial policy and at the same time, we are able to achieve profitable growth and hold a robust balance sheet.
And at the same time, of course, we have to ensure the objective of being able to face all of our maturities in an uncertain financial environment as we're doing now. So all of those elements definitely had to be considered when determining how much to distribute and how much to invest. But I would say that the policies that we have, the dividend policy and the financial policy that we have is a good guidance in terms of where we will stand financially speaking.
The next one comes from Marcio Farid at Goldman Sachs. Rodrigo, how should we think about the fuel business assets today and where Copec wants to be? For example, if you're thinking on more divestments. And I gather that with a question from [ Edward Palma ] that is asking about the situation for Sonacol if you're planning to sell it in the short term?
Yes. I think we -- to a certain extent, we covered that with the previous discussion about energy transition and transformation of our business model. Just to complement the previous answer, I would say that moving forward, we will -- it is highly unlikely that we will invest in large-scale traditional fuels assets as we did in the past during the period, right, when we bought Copec -- when we bought Terpel and Mapco.
It is highly unlikely that we will proceed with a large scale acquisitions such as those. Rather, we will be placing a focus on emphasizing investments that have to do with energy transition, as we have mentioned, through the different channels that we have discussed, so electromobility, transformation of business model, venture capital initiatives, and we will be placing a focus on that. We are aiming to have most of our EBITDA coming from nonfuel sources in 2050, but we think we will be there before that. And we have already talked about the amounts that will be allocated to this energy transition and transformation for our business model.
We look at our divestments on a case-by-case basis. We are totally conscient of the fact that assets may be worth more in the hands of third parties or specialized investors. That's why we sold Gasmar a couple of years ago. That's why we have Sonacol up for sale, and that's why we are selling Mapco.
In the case of Mapco, as we discussed in previous presentations, we did a lot of the value-adding opportunities that we had envisaged. We were able to transform the company and significantly increase its operating performance. But going forward, what we see there is that in order to have competitive advantages in the North American market, you have to be much larger than we are right now.
So it made a lot of sense to sell the company to a larger competitor, which is what we are doing right now with the sale of Mapco to Couche-Tard and the other player as well. So we look at the possibility of divesting on a case-by-case basis, trying to make the most value as transparent as possible through the sale to investors in whose hands these assets may be worth more. Not allowed to comment in case of the progress of the sale of Sonacol, but we still have the intention to go ahead with that process.
Thank you, Rodrigo. And also two more from Marcio Farid to Gianfranco. I think you touched a little bit on this, if you can comment a little bit on the cost as MAPA ramp-up? And if you expect to have a more stable production scenario for Arauco? That's the first one. And secondly, when should we expect the Sucuriú project to be discussed on the Board?
Okay. Yes, we expect to have a better production scenario in the second half, not only because of MAPA, but also because we had a lot of unscaled problems in the first half. And also, we had the repair of Valdivia, which was top performance and also the problem in Constitución of the [indiscernible] that ended in April. So we think that we're going to have a better second half. MAPA should produce according to our plan. We think that a little bit more than 800,000 tonnes of production for the year. We already produced 225,000 tonnes in the first half.
It's producing well, reaching some of the days 100% capacity, not all the days, of course. That's why it's only at 65%, 70% capacity. But it's going according to the plan. We're very happy with the ramp-up. So that will help also to reduce cash costs at the end of the year. The maximum production should be obtained on a monthly basis, probably at the start of 2024. That's our plan.
And regarding Sucuriú, the plan continues and the expectation is to make a decision at the end of 2024. That is our plan to take to the Board of Directors a complete analysis -- feasibility analysis to have the environmental approval already, everything in order to decide if we go ahead to the project, but that decision should be taken probably in the last quarter of 2024, not before that.
Okay. The next one comes from Rodrigo Godoy at CrediCorp asking about the situation of the rains in Chile, that was already addressed. And then a very similar question with Cesar Perez at BTG. If you can comment on the outlook for production and sales for MAPA in 2023, 2024? And if the expectations of a cash cost of $280 to $300 per tonne budgeted at the beginning of the year has changed?
Well, regarding sales, sales are behind production about 100,000 tonnes because you need to build the working capital, the inventory. So that takes away on a yearly basis. This year about 100,000 tonnes. So probably 700,000 tonnes will be sold from MAPA this year. And next year, of course, we will plan to be very close to 1.5 million tonne capacity depending on how we start the year, and that should be equivalent in terms of sales, more or less.
And regarding the cash cost that we calculate when we started the project many years ago, I think we are close to that number, close to the $300 cash cost per tonne. What has changed is that probably the cost of wood is higher, a little bit higher than we thought because of inflation and all that. But on the other side, the consumption of wood per tonne is better than we thought. So that compensates a little bit, and some fixed costs have increased a little bit. But I think that we are close to the number that we thought we would have in the projects of close to $300, which is a good number in terms of cash cost for Arauco.
Also from Rodrigo Godoy. Rodrigo, if you can comment on the expectations of production and cash cost for Mina Justa in 2023? And secondly, how much was the provision for bad accounts receivables in Terpel related to the aviation sector?
Yes. Mina Justa is becoming very stable in terms of production and cash costs. We expect to end the year with production of 140,000 tonnes to 150,000 tonnes. So pretty much should be at full capacity by the end of the year. And for the whole year, as I said, between 140,000 tonnes or 150,000 tonnes. And cash cost has -- is already very stable at $1.4 per pound. So it's reasonable to expect that, that will be stable towards the end of the year. In relation to the provision for accounts receivable at Terpel, it was around $15 million for the aviation segment.
And the next one comes from Jens Spiess at Morgan Stanley. Gianfranco, I think you already addressed this, but if you want to add something. How sustainable do you think the recent pulp demand in China will be? And do you think that the price increase announced by [ Suzano ] will stick? How about in Europe? And he is asking about the production and shipping from MAPA this year, that -- it was already answered.
Well, I don't really know. I mean we have to be month by month. I mean there's some positive news that I already mentioned about a little bit of better mood in the demand in China. So I don't know if it's going to stick or not. That depends on the negotiation that [ Suzano ] is sticking. I mean, we will do our own negotiation and we will see. I mean I'm a little bit more positive than I was, but we have to wait a little bit to see if we can take the volumes and if the market reacts to the price increases.
Regarding Europe, the situation is different. I mean it's worse than China. So the demand is worse. So that is more difficult, and prices were going down and at some point, it has to equivalent the prices in China. So some volume is going from Europe to China. So we will see there. Our sales to Europe are only about 15%. So it's not a big market for us, and it's only short fiber.
So for us, it's more important what happens in China, but the situation in Europe can contaminate the supply going to China. So that is also very important. But the mood is worse than in China at this moment in Europe.
Thank you, Gianfranco. And we have a final question from [ Abdul Farooqi ]. Rodrigo, if you can elaborate further on the investment made in the fishing business?
Yes, we -- during the quarter, we went ahead with a capital increase at our fishing division, which was basically to change the capital structure of the companies there. We paid down debt with that capital increase. So now we have capital structure that is much more in line with the volatility of this business. As we've commented before, we have a financial policy, which provides for a robust balance sheet at the consolidated level.
But it is also in our interest to have each of our subsidiary companies with a robust balance sheet in order to face their respective businesses. We've done that in the past with other companies when they are in need of a change of capital structure, and we did deal with the fishing business in this particular quarter. So it's just that it's a change in the capital structure or capital increase that was used to pay down debt.
Okay. And we don't have more questions at this moment. So I'll turn it back to the operator.
This concludes the question-and-answer section. At this time, I would like to turn the floor back to Mr. Rodrigo Huidobro for any closing remarks.
Well, thank you all very much for joining us today. Thank you especially for your patience with the technical difficulties that we have. And we expect to see you back in some time during November in order to take a look at the results for the third quarter. Thank you all very much. Have a good afternoon. Bye-bye.
Thank you. This concludes today's presentation. You may disconnect now, and have a nice day.