Orlen SA
PSE:PKN
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one PKN stock under the Base Case scenario is 596.21 CZK. Compared to the current market price of 303 CZK, Orlen SA is Undervalued by 49%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Orlen SA
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Fundamental Analysis
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Orlen SA, headquartered in Poland, is a prominent player in the Central European energy market, seamlessly integrating its operations across various segments, including refining, petrochemicals, and fuel retail. Founded in 1999, this dynamic company has evolved into one of the largest oil and gas firms in the region, serving millions of customers and maintaining a significant presence in both domestic and international markets. Orlen’s impressive refining capacity, comprehensive supply chains, and strategic partnerships position it strongly amid the global push for energy diversification and sustainability. The company's commitment to investing in renewable energy sources and innovative tech...
Orlen SA, headquartered in Poland, is a prominent player in the Central European energy market, seamlessly integrating its operations across various segments, including refining, petrochemicals, and fuel retail. Founded in 1999, this dynamic company has evolved into one of the largest oil and gas firms in the region, serving millions of customers and maintaining a significant presence in both domestic and international markets. Orlen’s impressive refining capacity, comprehensive supply chains, and strategic partnerships position it strongly amid the global push for energy diversification and sustainability. The company's commitment to investing in renewable energy sources and innovative technologies underscores its foresight and adaptability in a rapidly changing industry.
As an investor, understanding Orlen SA's strategic direction is essential, given its ambitious growth plans that aim to expand its market share and fortify its competitive edge. Orlen is actively pursuing acquisitions and collaborations, enhancing its capabilities in biofuels and sustainable energy solutions, thus preparing itself for a greener future. Moreover, its clear focus on operational efficiency and cost management promises potential for strong financial returns. With a robust track record of navigating challenges and capitalizing on new opportunities, Orlen SA represents an intriguing investment opportunity for those looking to tap into the evolving energy landscape while supporting a company that values sustainability and innovation.
Orlen SA, officially known as PKN Orlen, is a Polish oil and gas company that is one of the largest in Central and Eastern Europe. Its core business segments can generally be categorized as follows:
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Refining:
- This segment is responsible for the processing of crude oil into refined products, such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum derivatives. The company operates several refineries, which are crucial for meeting the energy needs of the region and for producing various petrochemical products.
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Retail:
- Orlen operates a vast network of retail stations across Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries. This segment focuses on the sale of fuel and convenience products. The company is also exploring the expansion of services offered at these locations, including car washes, restaurants, and shops.
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Petrochemicals:
- Orlen produces a variety of petrochemical products that are used in various industries, including plastics, synthetic fibers, and other chemical materials. This segment allows the company to diversify its product offerings and serve industrial customers.
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Wholesale:
- The wholesale segment involves the sale of petroleum products and chemicals to large businesses and other entities. Orlen engages in trading activities to optimize its supply chain and manage its inventory effectively.
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Energy:
- In response to the growing importance of renewable energy and efforts toward sustainability, Orlen has been expanding its portfolio in the energy sector. This includes investments in renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power, and the development of low-emission technologies.
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Logistics:
- This segment covers the transportation and storage of crude oil and refined products. Orlen manages its logistics to ensure efficient distribution of its products while maintaining cost-effectiveness.
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Research and Development:
- To remain competitive in the evolving energy landscape, Orlen invests in research and development to innovate and improve its product offerings, enhance operational efficiency, and explore new technologies.
In recent years, Orlen has also been focusing on mergers and acquisitions to consolidate its market position and expand its operations into other countries in Europe. The integration of these segments is aimed at achieving operational synergies and sustaining long-term growth in a dynamic market.
Orlen SA, a prominent player in the Central and Eastern European energy and petrochemical sectors, holds several unique competitive advantages over its rivals, which can be analyzed from various perspectives:
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Vertical Integration: Orlen has established a vertically integrated business model covering the entire value chain from crude oil refining to distribution and retail. This reduces dependency on external suppliers and helps in optimizing costs and enhancing margins.
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Strategic Positioning: Orlen operates in several countries of Central and Eastern Europe, providing it with a diverse market presence. This geographic diversification reduces risks associated with market volatility in any single country.
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Investment in Green Energy: Orlen has been investing heavily in renewable energy and sustainable practices, positioning itself as a forward-thinking company aligned with global trends towards decarbonization. This commitment may provide an edge over competitors who are slower to adapt.
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Strong Brand Recognition: The Orlen brand is well-established in the region, particularly in Poland. Strong brand equity can lead to customer loyalty, enhanced market share, and pricing power.
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Technological Advancement: Ongoing investment in advanced refining technology and digital transformation initiatives allows Orlen to improve operational efficiencies, reduce costs, and innovate in product offerings.
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Robust Supply Chain: Orlen’s extensive network of supply and distribution facilities allows for better control over logistics and inventory, enhancing responsiveness to market demands and supply chain disruptions.
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Regulatory Relationships: Established relationships and experience in navigating regulatory environments within its operational regions can provide Orlen with a competitive edge in compliance and strategic planning.
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Financial Strength: A solid capital position allows Orlen the flexibility to pursue growth opportunities through acquisitions, market expansion, or investment in new technologies more aggressively than competitors with weaker financial standings.
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Diversification of Products: Orlen’s diversified product offerings, which range from refined petroleum products to chemicals, mitigate the risks associated with the commodity price fluctuations by spreading revenue sources.
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Local Market Knowledge: Being a home-grown business in its primary market region gives Orlen invaluable local market knowledge and operational familiarity that can help in strategies that resonate better with local consumers compared to international competitors.
These competitive advantages position Orlen SA favorably in the energy and petrochemical market, allowing it to navigate challenges and capitalize on opportunities in a dynamic industry landscape.
Orlen SA, as a major player in the energy and petrochemical sectors, faces several risks and challenges moving forward. These can be categorized into various areas:
1. Market Risks
- Volatility in Oil Prices: Fluctuations in crude oil prices can directly impact profitability. The company's margins may get squeezed during periods of low oil prices.
- Demand Fluctuations: Changes in demand for petroleum and petrochemical products, influenced by economic conditions, consumer trends, and energy transition, can pose risks.
- Competition: Increased competition from local and global players may affect market share and pricing strategies.
2. Regulatory and Political Challenges
- Environmental Regulations: Stricter regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions and promoting renewable energy can lead to increased costs for compliance.
- Geopolitical Risks: Political instability in oil-producing regions or changes in trade policies can disrupt operations and supply chains.
- Regional Regulations: Specific legislation in Europe and Poland relating to sustainability and energy can impact operations and cost structures.
3. Technological Challenges
- Transition to Renewable Energy: The shift towards renewable energy technologies may require substantial investment and adaptation of existing infrastructure.
- Innovation in Energy Storage and Efficiency: Competing companies may develop superior technologies that challenge Orlen's position if it fails to innovate.
4. Operational Risks
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Events such as natural disasters, pandemics, or geopolitical tensions can affect supply chains, leading to operational delays and increased costs.
- Maintenance and Safety: Ensuring safety and reliability in operations is critical; failures can lead to financial losses and reputational damage.
5. Financial Risks
- Debt Levels: High levels of debt can limit financial flexibility, especially if interest rates rise or cash flows are impacted by market conditions.
- Currency Fluctuations: As a company operating in international markets, currency exchange risks can impact revenues and costs.
6. Reputation Risks
- Public Perception: Growing anti-fossil fuel sentiment and increasing calls for corporate accountability regarding climate change and sustainability may affect Orlen’s brand image.
- Social Responsibility: Failure to meet societal expectations regarding corporate social responsibility can lead to public backlash and customer loss.
7. Economic Challenges
- Global Recession Risks: Economic downturns can reduce demand for petroleum products and hurt financial performance.
Strategic Considerations
To address these risks, Orlen should consider diversifying its energy portfolio, investing in renewable energy sources, enhancing operational efficiencies, and strengthening its stakeholder relations. Proactive engagement with regulatory bodies and investment in technology can also help mitigate some of these challenges.
In keeping with the teachings of Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, maintaining a strong focus on fundamental business principles, financial discipline, and a long-term perspective will be crucial in navigating these potential risks.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Orlen SA
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Orlen SA
Current Assets | 77.8B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 12.7B |
Receivables | 30.7B |
Other Current Assets | 34.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 175.1B |
Long-Term Investments | 5.8B |
PP&E | 154.7B |
Intangibles | 11.3B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 3.3B |
Current Liabilities | 61B |
Accounts Payable | 43.1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 261m |
Other Current Liabilities | 17.7B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 44.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 20.4B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 24.1B |
Earnings Waterfall
Orlen SA
Revenue
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414.6B
PLN
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Cost of Revenue
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-355.1B
PLN
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Gross Profit
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59.5B
PLN
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Operating Expenses
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-22.5B
PLN
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Operating Income
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37B
PLN
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Other Expenses
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-27.5B
PLN
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Net Income
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9.5B
PLN
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Orlen SA
PLN | |
Free Cash Flow | PLN |
In Q3, the company faced significant revenue drops exceeding PLN 10 billion due to lower gas prices and refining margins, resulting in EBITDA of PLN 8.1 billion, down from PLN 8.6 billion last year. Refining margins fell 65% year-on-year, now averaging $11 per barrel. The company expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to be slightly lower, with continued strong cash flows and limited debt. Capital expenditure is forecasted at PLN 33 billion, a PLN 2 billion reduction. Despite macro pressures, solid performance in retail and energy segments strengthens overall outlook, with expectations for a stable and resilient future.
What is Earnings Call?
PKN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Orlen SA's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Orlen SA's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
PKN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Orlen SA's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Orlen SA's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
PKN Price Targets Summary
Orlen SA
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PKN is 433.75 CZK with a low forecast of 340.7 CZK and a high forecast of 643.47 CZK.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for PKN is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA engages in the processing and trade of crude oil. The company is headquartered in Plock, Woj. Mazowieckie and currently employs 64,494 full-time employees. The company specializes in the manufacture, distribution, wholesale and retail sale of refined petrochemical products. The Company’s business is divided into three segments: Refining, including refinery products processing and wholesale, oil productions and sale as well as supporting production; Retail segment, including sales at petrol stations; and Petrochemical segment, including production and wholesale of petrochemicals and production and sale of chemicals. Its product portfolio includes fuel and petrochemical products, as well as oil derivatives, such as petrol, heating oil, aviation fuel and plastics. The company also produces and distributes electricity and thermal energy. The company operates several refineries located in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic and a number of gasoline stations. The company operates Kicking Horse Energy Inc and FX Energy Inc.
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Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one PKN stock under the Base Case scenario is 596.21 CZK.
Compared to the current market price of 303 CZK, Orlen SA is Undervalued by 49%.