O

Orlen SA
PSE:PKN

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Orlen SA
PSE:PKN
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Price: 303 CZK 0.68% Market Closed
Market Cap: 351.8B CZK
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one PKN stock under the Base Case scenario is 596.21 CZK. Compared to the current market price of 303 CZK, Orlen SA is Undervalued by 49%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

PKN Intrinsic Value
596.21 CZK
Undervaluation 49%
Intrinsic Value
Price
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Orlen SA

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Business Breakdown

Orlen SA, headquartered in Poland, is a prominent player in the Central European energy market, seamlessly integrating its operations across various segments, including refining, petrochemicals, and fuel retail. Founded in 1999, this dynamic company has evolved into one of the largest oil and gas firms in the region, serving millions of customers and maintaining a significant presence in both domestic and international markets. Orlen’s impressive refining capacity, comprehensive supply chains, and strategic partnerships position it strongly amid the global push for energy diversification and sustainability. The company's commitment to investing in renewable energy sources and innovative tech...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Orlen SA

Current Assets 77.8B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 12.7B
Receivables 30.7B
Other Current Assets 34.4B
Non-Current Assets 175.1B
Long-Term Investments 5.8B
PP&E 154.7B
Intangibles 11.3B
Other Non-Current Assets 3.3B
Current Liabilities 61B
Accounts Payable 43.1B
Accrued Liabilities 261m
Other Current Liabilities 17.7B
Non-Current Liabilities 44.5B
Long-Term Debt 20.4B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 24.1B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Orlen SA

Revenue
414.6B PLN
Cost of Revenue
-355.1B PLN
Gross Profit
59.5B PLN
Operating Expenses
-22.5B PLN
Operating Income
37B PLN
Other Expenses
-27.5B PLN
Net Income
9.5B PLN

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Orlen SA

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

In Q3, the company faced significant revenue drops exceeding PLN 10 billion due to lower gas prices and refining margins, resulting in EBITDA of PLN 8.1 billion, down from PLN 8.6 billion last year. Refining margins fell 65% year-on-year, now averaging $11 per barrel. The company expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to be slightly lower, with continued strong cash flows and limited debt. Capital expenditure is forecasted at PLN 33 billion, a PLN 2 billion reduction. Despite macro pressures, solid performance in retail and energy segments strengthens overall outlook, with expectations for a stable and resilient future.

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Fundamental Scores

PKN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Orlen SA's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
Positive 3-Year Average ROIC
Positive Gross Profit
56/100
Profitability
Score

Orlen SA's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

PKN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Orlen SA's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Interest Coverage
High Altman Z-Score
Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
81/100
Solvency
Score

Orlen SA's solvency score is 81/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

PKN Price Targets Summary
Orlen SA

Wall Street analysts forecast PKN stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PKN is 433.75 CZK with a low forecast of 340.7 CZK and a high forecast of 643.47 CZK.

Lowest
Price Target
340.7 CZK
12% Upside
Average
Price Target
433.75 CZK
43% Upside
Highest
Price Target
643.47 CZK
112% Upside
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Dividends

Dividend Yield
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Dividend Per Share
N/A
Growth 3Y
Growth 5Y
Growth 10Y
Dividend Safety Score
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0
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Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for PKN is .

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Profile

Orlen SA

Country

Poland

Industry

Energy

Market Cap

351.8B CZK

Dividend Yield

1.37%

Description

Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN SA engages in the processing and trade of crude oil. The company is headquartered in Plock, Woj. Mazowieckie and currently employs 64,494 full-time employees. The company specializes in the manufacture, distribution, wholesale and retail sale of refined petrochemical products. The Company’s business is divided into three segments: Refining, including refinery products processing and wholesale, oil productions and sale as well as supporting production; Retail segment, including sales at petrol stations; and Petrochemical segment, including production and wholesale of petrochemicals and production and sale of chemicals. Its product portfolio includes fuel and petrochemical products, as well as oil derivatives, such as petrol, heating oil, aviation fuel and plastics. The company also produces and distributes electricity and thermal energy. The company operates several refineries located in Poland, Lithuania and the Czech Republic and a number of gasoline stations. The company operates Kicking Horse Energy Inc and FX Energy Inc.

Contact

WOJ. MAZOWIECKIE
Plock
Ul. Chemikow 7
+48242560000
www.orlen.pl

IPO

1999-11-26

Employees

64 494

Officers

CEO & President of the Management Board
Mr. Ireneusz Fafara
Deputy Chief Executive Officer for Finance & Member of Management Board
Ms. Magdalena Bartos
Acting Member of the Management Board & Independent Member of Supervisory Board
Mr. Tomasz Zielinski
Member of Management Board for Upstream
Mr. Wieslaw Prugar
Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Strategy & Sustainable Development & Member of Management Board
Mr. Robert Soszynski
Member of Management Board for Energy & Energy Transition
Mr. Artur Janusz Osuchowski
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Member of Management Board for Wholesale & Logistics
Marek Balawejder
Head of Stock Exchange Information Team
Magdalena Kopciejewska
Deputy Chief Executive Officer for Production
Mr. Marek Swider
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one PKN stock?

The intrinsic value of one PKN stock under the Base Case scenario is 596.21 CZK.

Is PKN stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 303 CZK, Orlen SA is Undervalued by 49%.

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