Orlen SA
PSE:PKN
If you don’t study any companies, you have the same success buying stocks as you do in a poker game if you bet without looking at your cards.
Utilize notes to systematically review your investment decisions. By reflecting on past outcomes, you can discern effective strategies and identify those that underperformed. This continuous feedback loop enables you to adapt and refine your approach, optimizing for future success.
Each note serves as a learning point, offering insights into your decision-making processes. Over time, you'll accumulate a personalized database of knowledge, enhancing your ability to make informed decisions quickly and effectively.
With a comprehensive record of your investment history at your fingertips, you can compare current opportunities against past experiences. This not only bolsters your confidence but also ensures that each decision is grounded in a well-documented rationale.
Do you really want to delete this note?
This action cannot be undone.
| 52 Week Range |
297
423
|
| Price Target |
|
We'll email you a reminder when the closing price reaches CZK.
Choose the stock you wish to monitor with a price alert.
This alert will be permanently deleted.
You don't have any saved screeners yet
Dear ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the conference call of PKN ORLEN. At our customer's request, this conference will be recorded. [Operator Instructions]. May I now hand you over to Mr. Konrad Wlodarczyk, IR Director. Sir, you may begin.
Thank you operator. Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the conference call regarding PKN ORLEN consolidated financial results for the fourth quarter 2019. Today's presentation was emailed to you. It is available as well on our website. Today I have the pleasure to talk through the presentation and immediately after the floor for Q&A session will be open. So during the Q&A session, several of the directors from PKN ORLEN will be ready to answer your questions. With no further delay, I go smoothly to Slide #3, key facts and figures.
Q4 results is always, of course, a good moment to summarize the whole year. In 2019, we achieved PLN 9.4 billion EBITDA LIFO. It's a very good result, taking into account the challenging macro environment. We processed record-high amount of crude oil, almost 34 million tonnes. High production and some demand enables us to sell more than 43.8 million tonnes of products, which is a 1% increase year-on-year.
It's worth to mention, retail results over PLN 3 billion EBITDA LIFO in 2019, which means that Retail beat its record-high results from the last year again. In 2019, we maintained a strong financial position. We generated PLN 9.3 billion cash flow from operations, which is PLN 4.3 billion loss more than in 2018, we realized the CapEx at the level of PLN 4.4 billion, including leasing according to IFRS 16 in the amount of PLN 1 billion, CapEx amounted to the level of PLN 5.4 billion. We paid a record high dividend, PLN 1.5 billion, which is PLN 3.5 per share. And as a result, our net debt decreased by PLN 3.2 billion year-on-year to the level PLN 2.4 billion, which gives financial dividend at the level of 6.3% and covenant of 0.26%. These are, of course, very safe levels significantly below our established assumption. And it worth to underline that we maintained investment rating from Fitch and Moody's.
Now I would like to underline the most important things that we did in 2019. First of all, we diversified crude oil supplies. And currently, 30% of processed crude oil comes from [other directions ] in Russia. Recently, we signed a contract with Saudi Aramco, increasing volumes by 1.2 million tonnes per year.
Takeover of Grupa LOTOS. Just to remind you what we did and where we are? So at the beginning of July, we submitted to the European Commission a formal application for approval to take over Grupa LOTOS. At the beginning of August, European Commission decided that it is needs more time for debt analysis. Therefore, we move to the second -- final phase. The deadline for the final decision was set at 22nd of January 2020. And at the end of September, European Commission applies of the stop the clock procedure, so standard the second phase of negotiations. In our opinion, stop the clock procedure should be soon released .Therefore, we expect to get a final decision from European Commission in the first half of 2020 and to close the deal till the end of this year. Additionally, we announced a tender offer for 100% shares of Grupa LOTOS, and we expect to close the process in the first half of 2020. Opening of the tender experience starts tomorrow.
We moved forward with some of our key investments, like expansion of fertilizers production in Anwil, Green glycol and bioethanol in ORLEN Poludnie, Visbreaking in Plock, and we started a process to choose offshore wind farm designer on the Baltic Sea.
In 2019, we finished some big investment like metathesis installation in Plock and CPS [Peter ] in [ORLEN Poludnie]. We also expect to complete polyethylene unit in Litvinov in the first quarter 2020. Additional EBITDA generated by those 3 units is expected to be around PLN 300 million on the yearly basis. We strengthened also our position in retail by expanding our retail network of fuel stations to Slovakia. And we introduced ORLEN brands in our foreign fuel stations via co-branding. We continue our presence in Formula 1. In 2020, we became a titled sponsor of Alfa Romeo Racing team. And we are, again, awarded them -- the world's most ethical company 2019 and top employer for 2019.
Now I will go into the details of Q4, starting from macro environment. Slide #5. Macro in Q4 was significantly worse than a year ago. In Q4, downstream margin decreased by minus USD 3 per barrel due to lower margins on heavy traction that dropped from the level of minus USD 190 per tonne to USD 252 per ton. Lowered by 10% margin on middle distillates as well as lower margins from petchem products. This negative macro effect was partially offset by weakening of polish zloty versus the foreign currencies.
Low gas prices were supported throughout the whole 2019. Gas prices were under the pressure due to high stock levels, increasing renewables, electric energy production and the global economic slowdown. In Q4, gas prices decreased by over 40% year-on-year as lower energy prices by roughly speaking, 15% year-on-year, which widened the spread or the difference between gas and energy prices. Therefore, our energy assets generate decent results PLN 1.6 billion EBITDA LIFO in 2019, which is more than PLN 900 million better result than achieved in 2018.
Slide #6. As of a market-oriented data in Q4, we recorded GDP growth on all domestic markets, but with slightly lower dynamics year-on-year. Poland is a growth leader. What is reflected in higher consumption of diesel by 3% and higher consumption of gasoline by 5% year-on-year.
And dynamics in fuel consumption on other markets from our point of view are also satisfactory.
Now I will present financial and operating results for the fourth quarter of 2019. So we move to Slide #8.
In Q4, we recorded revenue decreased by 7%, mainly due to lower quotation of the refining and petrochemical products, resulting from crude oil price decrease. We generated PLN 1.5 billion EBITDA LIFO, which is PLN 0.6 billion lower year-on-year. So on one hand, we had minus PLN 0.9 billion negative macro impact, minus PLN 0.3 billion negative effect of lower fuel margins in retail. And minus PLN 0.1 billion negative impact of higher overhead and labor costs.
On the other hand, we had positive effects. PLN 0.3 billion positive volume effect, PLN 0.1 billion positive effect of higher trade margins in wholesale and PLN 0.3 billion positive impact of inventory revaluation. Just to remind you, from the beginning of 2019, we apply IFRS 16 regarding leasing, a pure accounting standard. However, it rose EBITDA LIFO by, roughly speaking, PLN 150 million on quarterly basis, so PLN 600 million on the yearly basis due to higher depreciation.
As a result of crude oil price increase in the fourth quarter, we recognized a positive LIFO effect in the amount of PLN 0.2 billion, which caused an increase in reported EBITDA up to PLN 1.7 billion.
The result on financial activity in the fourth quarter was PLN 0.2 billion, mainly due to positive impact of foreign exchange differences and net settlements of derivative financial
instruments and negative impact of interest cost. And as a result, in Q4, we achieved PLN 0.8 billion net profit and PLN 4.5 billion for the whole year.
Slide #9. On this slide, we present split of EBITDA LIFO by segment. Downstream, PLN 1.1 billion, so decreased by PLN 0.3 billion year-on-year as a result of negative macro impact and higher labor cost lifted by positive volume impact, higher trade margins and positive impact of inventory revaluations year-on-year.
In retail, PLN 0.6 billion decreased by PLN 0.3 billion year-on-year, as a result of negative effect of lower fuel margins, limited by higher sales volumes and higher nonfuel margins. Upstream generated PLN 69 million, so comparable results year-on-year, mainly due to negative effect of sales volumes and better balance on other operational activities, including settlement and valuation of derivative financial instruments limited by positive macro effects. Corporate functions. Lower cost year-on-year, mainly due to positive impact of change in other operational activities.
Going into the details, we move to Slide #10. Downstream. Downstream delivered PLN 1.1 billion EBITDA LIFO in Q4, which is lower by PLN 0.3 billion year-on-year. We faced here a high-pressure from macro environment our negative macro impact was minus PLN 0.9 billion year-on-year due to lower margins on middle distillates, heavy fraction, polyethylene, PTA and PVC, but was partially offset by better margins on life distillates, fertilizers and weakening of polish zloty versus foreign currency.
Negative macro impact was partially limited by positive volumes resulting in the amount of PLN 0.3 billion despite a drop in sales by minus 4% year-on-year. Lower sales of refining products year-on-year as the result of weak macro were offset by improvement in the sales structure, which means lower sales of heavy traction. We recorded also higher petchem sales volumes year-on-year due to higher availability of installations in PKN ORLEN, and the lack of impact of cyclical maintenance shutdowns of olefins and PTA from Q4 '18.
Sales of olefins, fertilizers and PTA increased year-on-year with a drop in sales of gasoline, diesel, LPG, polyolefins and PVC. Others in the amount of PLN 0.3 billion includes mainly PLN 0.3 billion inventory revaluation, net realizable value, PLN 0.1 billion from higher trade margins and minus PLN 0.1 billion from higher labor costs. Please bear in mind that the net realizable value in Q4 was marginal. And it was at the level of just PLN 23 million.
Slide #11. It shows operating data of Downstream segment. In Q4, PKN ORLEN processed 8.4 million tonnes of crude oil, which is minus 4.3 million tonnes lower than in Q4 '18, mainly due to lower throughput in ORLEN and dropped by 13% year-on-year as a result of unfavorable macro environment.
Now let's have a look on utilization and fuel yields. So in Plock, utilization was higher by 1 percentage point as a result of smaller scope of maintenance shutdowns of H-Oil and PX/PTA units year-on-year and lack of technical shutdown of Olefins from Q4 '18. Higher fuel yields by 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to higher share of low-sulphur crude oil in the feedstock.
In Unipetrol, lower utilization by 3 percentage points year-on-year as a result of longer maintenance shutdown of Visbreaking unit, and the lower fuel yields by minus 1 percentage points due to the lower share of low-sulphur crude oil in the feedstock and Visbreaking unit shutdown.
In ORLEN Lietuva, we recorded lower utilization by 13% -- percentage points due to unfavorable macro environment. Higher fuel yields by 5 percentage points year-on-year due to higher share of low-sulphur crude oil in the feedstock and higher yields from Visbreaker Vacuum Flasher installation.
Going into sales split market by market. In Poland, lower sales of fuels was offset by higher sales of olefines, fertilizers and PTA. In the Czech Republic, we've had lower sales of fuels, fertilizers and PVC as a result on weak macro environment. And in ORLEN Lietuva, we recorded lower sales due to limitation of heavy fractions, volumes and higher sales of middle distillates.
Now let's move to Slide #12, retail. Retail in Q4 generated almost PLN 600 million EBITDA LIFO. And it was 30% lower year-on-year. But despite a decrease, we perceived retail results. It's a good one. Results are lower year-on-year, mainly due to one-off that occurred in Q4 '18, related to logistic constraints in Germany, which significantly boosted retail results last year.
Therefore, comparing year-on-year Q4 results were negatively impacted by lower fuel margins on German and Polish market, partially offset by sales volume increase and higher non-fuel margins, which is shown on the bottom left graph.
In Q4, we recognized sales volumes increased by 3% year-on-year. We have also started a cobranding process, our foreign fuel stations that assumes the existence of local brands like Benzina and STAR with ORLEN group logo.
Following market trends to invest in electric mobility in 2019, we added 15 new electric vehicle chargers to our network. And at the end of the year, we had a total number of 64 chargers. In 2020, we are going to add another 50 chargers to our network.
Slide #13 shows operating data of Retail segment. At the end of Q4, we were running more than 2,830 fuel stations, of which majority of them, 2,145, were equipped with nonfuel concepts Stop Cafe. Increasing number of fuel stations by 33 year-on-year, and very healthy demand for fuels were reflected in higher sales volumes by 3 percentage points -- by 3%, sorry. That was achieved mainly on Polish and Czech Republic markets. Majority of new stations were all planned in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Market share increased in the Czech Republic and Germany.
Please also have a look on further dynamic growth on non-fuel offer. Another 37 locations were opened in Q4. And at the end of 2019, we were running, as I've mentioned before, 2,145 food and beverage corners, including convenience stores under our own brand, O!SHOP.
Next slide, Slide #14. Upstream. In Q4, upstream delivered PLN 69 million EBITDA LIFO, which is a comparable results year-on-year. On one hand, positive macro impact due to higher crude oil, gas and NGL prices was offset by lower sales volume and negative effect of settlement and valuation of the derivative financial instrument. 7% decrease on average production year-on-year to the level of 18,700 BOE per day, is the outcome of the lower average production in Canada by minus 1,700 BOE per day at higher by [ 200 ] BOE day sales in Poland.
Slide #15, more operational details regarding upstream. We have circa 197 million BOE 2P reserves, crude oil and gas. So this is the value-based on the preliminary calculation at the end of 2019. Average production in Q4 reached 18,700 BOE per day. And CapEx on Upstream amounted to circa PLN 230 million in Q4. And in the whole year, we spent PLN 630 million on Upstream activity.
Please let me mention some key operational starts in Q4. In Poland, we finished drilling a well with Bystrowice Shale, and as for extraction, a well with Bystrowice-OU1 in the Miocen project. We started drilling wells in the Plotki and Bieszczady project. Acquisition of seismic data in Edge and Plotki project were carried out and finished the seismic photo in Miocen, Plotki, Karpaty and Edge projects.
In Canada, we started drilling of 8 wells, 10 wells were fracked and 8 wells were added into production. Additionally, there have been further works concerning expansion of production and transmission infrastructure. There are also some locations being prepared for further drilling.
Slide #17. So coming back to financial and cash flow data. In the fourth quarter, cash flow from operations amounted to PLN 1.2 billion, mainly due to higher working capital by PLN 0.5 billion as a result of increasing the amount and value of inventories following higher crude oil prices. Crude oil inventories increased due to rebuild of stocks of obligatory reserves, which were used in the second quarter of the year when crude oil was contaminated with organic chlorides.
Cash flow from investments, CapEx in the amount of PLN 1.6 billion, change of investment liabilities and others in the amount of PLN 0.8 -- PLN 0.7 billion includes PLN 0.4 billion change in investment liabilities, minus PLN 0.2 billion expenditures for CO2 emission rights and PLN 0.5 billion impact of the right series according to IFRS 16.
Bottom graph summarized cash flow management for the whole 2019.
Here, you can see that we generated PLN 9.4 billion EBITDA LIFO. And working capital decreased by minus PLN 0.9 billion. Moreover, we spent PLN 4.4 billion CapEx. Including IFRS, PLN 5.4 billion, which is visible on this graph. And we paid PLN 1.5 billion of dividend to our shareholders of PLN 3.5 per share. As a result, our debt decreased by PLN 3.2 billion comparing to the previous year.
Slide #18. Financial strength, one of our pillars. I can confirm here that all indicators remain at safe levels, so covenants below PLN 0.3 billion at maximum level of 3.5%. Financial gain, 6.3%, significantly below 30%, our maximum level presented in the strategy. Net debt at the end of Q4 amounted to PLN 2.4 billion. Quarter-on-quarter, net debt increased by PLN 0.4 billion as a result of net investment at the level of minus PLN 1.6 billion. Net positive cash flow from operations at the level of PLN 1.2 billion.
Our sources of financing are diversified with an average maturity in 2021. What can be seen on the bottom graph. The currency structure of gross debt majority in Europe is reflecting our operational exposure and create a kind of natural hedge.
Next slide, #19 is dedicated to CapEx. In 2019, we -- planned CapEx was at the level of PLN 5 billion and realized CapEx without leasing according to IFRS 16 in the amount of PLN 4.4 billion. So PLN 1 billion impact of IFRS 16. And there are 2 main reasons for lower realization versus planned. CapEx optimization for Upstream in Canada from planned PLN 0.8 billion down to PLN 0.6 billion due to maintaining the low prices of hydrocarbons, postponing of several drills and concentration on the most prospective areas like Ferrier and Kakwa. And optimization of maintenance CapEx in Downstream segment, where a part of CapEx besides maintenance works were postponed to 2020.
In 2019, we have started many investments such as expansion of fertilizers production in Anwil, Propylene Glyco Installation and purchase of a license and the base projects for installation for the production of second-generation bioethanol in ORLEN Poludnie.
These breaking installation import start of process to choose offshore wind farm on Baltic Sea and construction of EV chargers in Poland.
Currently, we are completing polyethylene unit in the Czech Republic.
So now let's move to CapEx for 2020. Slide #21. Planned CapEx for this year is at the level of PLN 7.7 [ million ] (sic) billion, out of which PLN 3.9 billion is going to stand for growth and PLN 3.8 billion for maintenance and regulation. The main growth projects in Downstream segment, are expansion of fertilizers production in Anwil, a construction of Propylene Glycol Unit in ORLEN Poludnie, a construction of the Visbreaking unit in Plock, construction of R&D center in Plock, construction of biogas unit in ORLEN Poludnie, construction of units under the petrochemical program development, and preparation for construction of offshore wind farms on the Baltic Sea and construction of EV chargers in Poland. So additional few -- 50 new fast charging stations.
In retail, CapEx will be dedicated into new locations and growth of non-fuel concept. So 37 new own fuel stations will be opened, and over 117 new locations of Stop Cafe, O!SHOP.
In Upstream segment, we plan to invest circa PLN 500 million, of which 50% in Canada.
The last section, Slide #22 shows market outlook for 2020. So as for macro assumptions, on one hand, we are expecting higher level of crude oil price compared to the average from 2019, which results from expectations concerning agreements within OPEC+ countries regarding crude oil production decrease. And expected agreement in trade talks between U.S. and China as well as other geopolitical risks.
On the other hand, we are expecting pressure on crude oil price resulting from global economy slowdown and higher production in U.S. The model downstream margin should be also higher comparing to the average from 2019. Expected increase of refining margin, including B/U differential due to the increase of the demand for middle distillates limited by lower demand for HSFO and decrease of the demand for Ural type of crude oil as a result of IMO regulations from the first of January 2020.
The positive impact of the increase in the refining margins, including B/U differential will be limited by the drop in petrochemical margins as a result of launching of a new petrochemical capacity. The supporting factor, [ definitely ] Of the downstream margin is expected to further increase in the consumption of fuels and petrochemical products on the domestic market.
For the year 2020, we are expecting stabilization of the demand for gasoline and the light increase in demand for diesel in the Czech Republic, Germany and Lithuania. In Poland, we assume further increase in demand for both diesel and gasoline.
In terms of regulations, National Index target. So in 2020, we will observe increased from 8%, up to 8.5%, but PKN ORLEN has capability to reduce the index to the level from 2019. So roughly speaking, 5.8% -- 5.58%, sorry. Please be aware of additional tax burden for PKN ORLEN. Here I mean the tax retail in Poland, which will be enforced from the 1st of July 2020.
That's all from my side. Thank you very much. And now we are ready to take the questions.
[Operator Instructions] The first question received is from [indiscernible]
I have 3 questions. The first one, you reported nearly PLN 300 million negative selling dynamics year-on-year in the fourth quarter and nearly 0 through the whole year. And my question is, how representative from the viewpoint of this loss in hedging is the fourth quarter -- for the following quarters? The second one, how do you assess current inland premiums in retail segment comparing to the average in the fourth quarter. And the third question, when the free [indiscernible] should start contributing to EBITDA?
Okay. Thank you for the question. [indiscernible] speaking. The third question, some of this question is what we present on the bridge. Of course, we present the change between quarters. So in the fourth quarter '19, we have rising trends in oil prices and product quotation. So it means that we achieved slightly negative hedge impact. But please remember that last year, there was decline in trends in total prices. As I remember, it was in October, $81 per barrel. And at the end of December, it was $57 per barrel. So it means that we achieved last year very huge impact negative -- positive impact. So when we present in bridge difference, it means the lack of positive impact from '18. So as -- and we presented negative impact of PLN 0.3 billion in results in the bridge. So this year, impact was not as [indiscernible] negative because of rising trends. But last year, it was very positive. So that's why we have represented minus open free on the bridge. And for now, it is very hard to predict what we the optimum units or [indiscernible] for next quarter. So that's all from my side, I think.
So taking the questions of margins. So inland premium is recognized in the wholesale. So in terms of inland premium, we may say that in the first quarter, we observed lower dynamics on both IP spot for gasoline and the diesel. In terms of retail margins, we may assume that the level is comparable to what we've seen in Q4. And to answer your questions of the free contribution, so the free will be probably finalized in the first quarter in 2020. And the contribution on the yearly basis from this installation estimated roughly speaking, slightly above PLN 200 million on a yearly basis.
The next question received from Ekaterina Smyk from Bank of America.
I have a couple of questions. One is the follow up on the retail. What is the -- like, the general dynamics that in the retail margin that you're seeing in year-to-date? I mean I remember that starting from last year Q4 all the way through third quarter, margins have been very strong. I know there were one-off explanations for each of the quarter, but how should we sort of look at Q1 of this year compared to Q1 of the previous year?
And the second question is on the LOTOS transaction. You mentioned the updated time line. Have there been any developments that would sort of, like, make this new time line more convincing? Or is it just you're postponing it because you are still in the middle of negotiations with the European Commission. And as far as I remember, at some point of time last year, the official deadline for European Commission final decision was postponed until January this year. Has this date deadline moved -- been moved forward again?
Okay. So starting from the retail. Retail, of course, Q1 and Q4 is seasonally one of the weakest quarters. So usually we assume lower sales volumes and some pressure on the retail margins. As you perfectly spotted, last year, Q1 was a little contaminated by the positive impact that we observed in Q4. It was mainly visible in January. So the margins on both Polish and German markets were very high. Then from February and March, they started to stabilize. So having this in mind, I would assume that comparing year-on-year, retail margin will be lower comparing to the first quarter of 2019.
Robert Sleszynski speaking. With regards to the LOTOS acquisition, from my perspective, we have delivered all of the information, which were required from the European Commission, which means that we should expect and [indiscernible] for the procedure will be [indiscernible] pretty soon. Not talking about [indiscernible] actually, this is our expectation. And what happens then is that they start calculating the dates again. So what it means that if you refer to this January deadline, which was submitted to the public domain by the commission, will be postponed by the time during which we had the [indiscernible] procedure. It means that from the legal formal perspective, the actual deadline is something around May, but once the stop the clock is confirmed, the commission will issue the new formal date, by which the decision should would be delivered. So this is exactly based on our -- in our discussions with the European Commission. And we find this time line really trustful, as you say. But of course, everything depends on the Commission. This is the formal procedure. We are looking really formally on the process. Nonetheless, as I said, we do expect the cancellation of this stop the clock really, really soon.
But can I just clear -- have one thing cleared. So for this official deadline, I mean, the European Commission can -- if they set the new date for May, they can easily postpone it, depending on the circumstances, right?
Well, as I said, this is a follow-up procedure. And in terms of the time line, almost everything is in the hand of the Commission. I mean that if they tell us that they are, for example, not satisfied with some additional responses, which they require from us, they may, again, use this stop the clock procedure. But we don't expect it will happen actually soon. Our expectation is that they will start the actual stop the clock procedure. And following our submission on [indiscernible] proposal, which we are aiming to do, they will run the market. So this is the goal, actually. And if nothing really exceptional happens, they should be able to deliver the decision still in this half of the year.
Understood. And in terms of ENERGA, you do not expect any delays here and will probably receive approval from the European Commission by the end -- by the time a tender is scheduled to be completed, right?
Yes. So far, we haven't experienced any obstacles with regards to the discussion of the European Commission. Today's perspective is that nothing should impact the actual time line, actually.
The next question received is from Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citibank.
I have a couple of questions. So firstly, I'd like to ask about the investment spend you're planning for 2020 and onwards for the stand-alone. So because we have viewed in strategy at this for quite some time, which got delayed. So if you can help me understand, what's the profile of the CapEx you have in mind for, let's say, a couple of years forward, not only 2020? And then what kind of returns do you really assume on this growth CapEx?
Okay. It's [indiscernible] speaking. So for 2020, we have PLN 7.7 billion in our plan. So I'm not sure if I can say what return we expect from our growth CapEx. However [indiscernible]
How do you -- like, what's the [indiscernible] projects, you have cost of capital, you try to achieve certain premium. I mean you started to spend a lot more than what's the maintenance CapEx. A lot of the money is being spent on growth. So I thought it would be helpful for us to understand what are the metrics you are using and...
Piotr, Konrad speaking. We expect usually a few percentage points above WACC. This is our, let's say, standard procedure, so that's a general answer to your question.
And what is your WACC?
Yes. We use different WACCs for different segments. So very typical for our -- typical for our business. It's not very much from our companies. So we may say that in average, we expect 10% [indiscernible]
Okay. And looking at the macro, and clearly there is some deterioration on the numbers, and with this increased CapEx for this year and perhaps going forward, I can see the probability that your cash flow will be negative. Can you help me understand the recent comments from the CEO of maintaining the dividend policy as it is? How do you see -- can you help me square these few elements together, the cash flow, the leverage in the context of acquisitions and then the dividend, how that is supposed to work altogether?
So wherever it seems -- if everything goes well, I mean, we'll be able to spend over PLN 7 billion for CapEx. We will pay dividend. We finalize acquisitions. We assume in short term, we would be able to have higher gearing so -- but in short term. But in long term, we'll come back to lower debt and to lower gearing.
But do you see the dividend being paid out of that in PKN in the next couple of years?
So Piotr, that is not our approach for dividend policy such they're not safe. So our dividend policy definitely is a priority to our shareholders. We would like to pay regularly dividend. Of course, it depends on the macro situation. And let's say, as you've mentioned perfectly, possible investment -- future investment. However, as I said, it is definitely, you should wait for the recommendation of the management Board, which is usually provided in the full year results, it will be March 19. And as I said, clearly, [indiscernible] we will pay the dividend. Of course, what level, you have to wait till March.
Okay. I just -- you said it's not paying out to the -- let's leave the dividend. Can you help me understand the kind of logical buying crude oil from Saudi Arabia, apart from diversification? We've seen the recovery overall blend differential. How economically is feasible to import it from Saudi Arabia? Is it the same as kind of the Russian blend? Or you better off, you're worse off? Or shall we think it allows you achieve better products like [indiscernible], what's the kind of economic logic behind it?
Crude oil and gas and trading department. It's very logical, economically. But not only economically, but also strategically. So we need to combine all those factors. However, [calculating] economics, we need to look at differential calculation and OSB prices from Saudi Arabia, meaning that OSB from Saudi comes right after euro differential. So it may differ, plus and minus, between them. So I mean in a very strict way. Sometimes Saudi crude is cheaper, so to say, comparing to Europe. Minor changes. But still we are facing that. And -- I'm sorry, quality is quite similar. So it's very feasible and very economical and reasonable to take into our new facilities. So that's [indiscernible]
Okay. I think that point is a very similar crude at a very similar discount. So should look still what's the overall blend differential. What's the logistic cost behind one crude oil versus another? Is there any difference between supplying it directly through the pipe that is connected versus supplying it through the offshore ship deliveries? And then who bears the cost of deliveries?
I wouldn't go into details. Let's just focus on the very end. At the very end, more or less, either Europe or [indiscernible] are economically wise to inject to our facilities. Of course, we are working the both of us too long in the business or looking around the business, knowing that the price is cheaper than [ seaborne ] delivers. However, due to our negotiation process, we achieved quite convenient conditions, allowing us to take that crude out of our portfolio. That's the answer for your question.
I understand the strategic logic and security logic, but I just wanted to kind of attach the price stack to this kind of security? Is it a couple of hundred million zloty, is it very small, big? But thank you very much. It's okay, if you don't want to answer it precisely. That's okay.
I will look first.
The next question received is from Henri Patricot from UBS.
Three questions, please. Two on the downstream, one financial.
So on the downstream side, I wanted to follow up on the question around the crude mix and the quality of your product mix, in particular, I mean, given the more regulation and what we're seeing on fuel oil, can you give us an update on the average quality of your fuel oil production between the various products with the high Sulphur, low Sulphur, and the very low Sulphur and how that is going to change, perhaps, over the course of 2020?
And secondly, on refining, petchem, if there's any major maintenance that we should be aware of for 2020, if you can remind us of that? And finally, I just want to check around CapEx because you've slightly cut the 2020 CapEx figure. But [indiscernible], what it means for the cash CapEx figure? And if that reduction is just a timing thing and that cash CapEx actually a bit higher in 2020 because it was lower in 2019?
So again, I'm not sure I got your question properly, but let me answer this way. Bear in mind, the upcoming IMO regulations being old market and we're still in process. You may see, you may face, we see us buying more license rates than where it was before. So we're in the process of trying to mitigate IMO regulation impact and the expected impact on the market. And I'm not sure that your questions...
My question was more around the quality of your fuel oil? And whether you are reducing the average Sulphur content? Or if we should assume that all of you fuel oil production is still high Sulphur fuel oil?
I don't think I am the person who is right to answer your questions regarding quality of fuel oil. So if you put the question onto our [indiscernible], we'll answer you from Konrad or [indiscernible] probably.
But generally, you may say that if you are processing the same lighter kinds of crude oil, let's say, the Sulphur content in the final product should be definitely lower, which helps. And as we always, let's say, underline, we are not facing the problem with selling high Sulphur fuel oil, and we keep regulations, yes. So in Poland, definitely, we are burning a majority of high sulfur fuel oil for our own purposes. We have already a few years ago installed high-class installations to clean the fuel from the Sulphur. We catch the Sulphur and sell this outside [indiscernible]. We have also very good market for bitumen [indiscernible]. In Czech Republic, we have box installations where we are utilizing high Sulphur fuel oil towards production of hydrogen. And the only problem that we could face was [indiscernible]. However, at this stage, there are no discrepancies in sales of high Sulphur fuel oil in Lithuania as well.
In terms of your question was about the maintenance shutdown. So next year, definitely we -- so next year, 2020, will be definitely more impact with maintenance shutdowns comparing 2019. Majority, of course, maintenance will be in the second and the first quarter from the bigger one. In Plock, we have [indiscernible] unit, HDS and as well as petrochemical installation plan for the second quarter, like PTA. That's a 1-month maintenance. And polyethylene and polypropylene in BOP. We have a quite long cyclical shutdown in Unipetrol, which is, our guess, is to be conducted from the beginning of the second quarter. This will be breaking unit as well as [indiscernible] in [indiscernible] and this will last more than 2 months, both.
The next part of maintenance shutdowns will be in the first quarter. So another CDU unit, hydrocracking, and some petrochemical units in Poland like olefins and PVC as well as the usual in Q4 [indiscernible] in Unipetrol visbreaking units. So you may assume that this year, we clearly said that we had a record high crude oil [indiscernible], reaching almost 34 million tonnes of crude oil. So this year, so 2020, you should expect that it will drop, but definitely, it should be about 33 million tonnes.
Okay. And with regards to your question regarding the difference between memorial and cash perspective of CapEx, we expect that change in CapEx liabilities would lower some of your prospective by PLN 0.5 billion. So 7.2%, something like that, should we register as a cash CapEx.
The next question received is from Oleg Galbur from Raiffeisen.
I have two questions. First on petrochemicals. Now that you expect the petchem margins to stay low this year and probably in the medium term as a result of more supply, would you stick to your old guidance for the new projects that are being implemented or were recently implemented, such as metathesis plant and new production in Lithuania? If I remember correctly, you were expecting an annual impact on EBITDA of PLN 100 million in metathesis plant and PLN 50 million in Lithuania.
And my second question is on the 2020 CapEx guidance. Could you please explain why is the maintenance CapEx this year higher than last year by roughly PLN 1.2 billion? And can you also provide the split of the Downstream CapEx by subsegments. And lastly, it would be also helpful to know what is the expected impact of separate projects that are being implemented, such as Glycol Unit or visbreaking unit and others?
Okay. So first question, metathesis and PPF Splitter, so definitely due to the fact that macro environment in petchem [indiscernible] than we expected, so you may assume that the initial numbers definitely are lower. So you may assume that metathesis is roughly speaking up to PLN 50 million on a yearly basis, similar PPF. This also both installations, PLN 100 million additional EBITDA on the yearly basis. And as I mentioned during the presentation that we are at the final stage of completing PE 3 unit in Czech Republic and the installation should add additional PLN 200 million on the yearly basis. So all those 3 petchem installation, up to PLN 300 million on the yearly basis.
In terms of the split in CapEx, you asked, so we provided in the presentation that for this year we're going to spend PLN 7.7 billion. Out of this PLN 3.9 billion for the growth. And in the growth, PLN 2.6 billion for the Downstream.
So we presented here the biggest project in the Downstream, out of which they accumulate up to PLN 1.7 billion from this PLN 2.6 billion. So first of all, expansion of [indiscernible] production in [indiscernible] open PLN 0.7 billion. [indiscernible] and glycol of PLN 0.2 billion. Visbreaking is PLN 0.2 billion. R&D center in Plock costs PLN 0.2 billion. Biogas installation in ORLEN is near PLN 0.1 billion. And the installations under petrochemical program development together, PLN 0.2 billion. Projects for wind farms on the Baltic, minor CapEx, but we stated here in 0 plus so between 0 up to PLN 100 million. And, let's say, building new EV chargers, roughly speaking, PLN 20 million. So PLN 1.7 billion out of PLN 2.6 billion is shown on this growth project on the slide.
Konrad, I was referring to the split of the Downstream CapEx of PLN 5.7 billion that you planned for this year by refining petchem and power generation?
Yes. About PLN 5.7 billion of the total CapEx is growth and maintenance. So if you take out of this PLN 5.7 billion, you have for growth in the Downstream, PLN 2.6 billion. Yes. So the remaining is maintenance. And I'm talking about the growth projects because maintenance is bigger because we have to have more maintenance shutdowns in [indiscernible].
Yes. We have big turnaround in Czech Republic. So it's the main reason why we have higher maintenance CapEx, and we have a lot of, let's say, energetic and efficiency projects in maintenance as well, replacements of catalysts, things like that.
So to understand correctly, you spotted that planned CapEx for 2020 for the Downstream segment is PLN 5.7 billion, out of which PLN 2.6 billion is growth, PLN 3.1 billion is maintenance. In this PLN 2.6 billion of growth, I have already spotted a few projects. And Andrzej answered your questions regarding maintenance -- higher maintenance CapEx this year comparing to 2019.
The next question received is from Igor Kuzmin from Morgan Stanley.
Two questions, please. First question, just quickly following up on the discussion around the dividends. It's -- I was just wondering if you guys are planning to revise the dividend policy and make it a little bit more precise probably, whether it's linked to free cash flows, earnings, in general, whether you expect the guidelines to be limited. Currently, it's very, very broad.
And second one, in terms of the pace of investments in new petrochemical projects and well any other projects, do you think that the pace or the speed at which the investments are being made and the speed at which these projects are progressing potentially can slow down, given that you have potentially 2 new large assets joining your portfolio, and they have their own CapEx programs. Obviously, with those problems, you will have a look at. So it's going to be very, very busy for you and hence my question, whether you expect that your core business projects potentially might come at a slower pace?
Maybe starting from CapEx or investment projects or petrochemical. For petrochemical projects, we are running these projects with full steam. I mean we are not going to slow down these projects. We have 10 key contracts with [indiscernible]. We are currently at the phase of, let's say, looking for licenses and basic designs for olefins. And we are in the time schedule. So we are not going to slow down this program -- petrochemical program. Because in LOTOS, we do not have any petrochemical assets. And in that regard, it's a different subject. So it is a completely different segment. We have financial resources, and we are going to speed up even this project. And we are talking with [floor] how to do it.
And the question about the dividend. Currently, the dividend policy has not changed. So we are going to pay regularly the dividend. And based on our track record, we paid 7x in a row. Usually, we are paying more DPS year-on-year. However, at the end of this year, definitely, we are going to present a new strategy. And in this strategy, definitely, we will incorporate the dividend policy, but definitely, at this stage, it's too early to say how it looks like.
The next question received is from Alexander Burgansky from Renaissance Capital.
So I have one question on the Grupa LOTOS deal. You mentioned that you plan to close the deal by the end of the year. Can you just clarify whether you refer to the potential acquisition of the [30%] stake from the treasury that you expect to close by the end of the year? Or whether this is potential acquisition of 100% of Grupa LOTOS that you plan to close by the end of the year?
Robert Sleszynski, again. Yes. To clarify the -- year -- by the end of first half of this year, we do expect to get clearance from the Commission. What implies actually that following that, we will close the deal with the State Treasury and announce the public tender on the exchange. So ultimately, it will -- the final closing of the transaction and taking the control over LOTOS should happen by the end of the year.
Okay. Can I also follow up? There is some -- so you mentioned that the tender for ENERGA will start tomorrow in line with previous announcements. I noticed that the price of ENERGA today is above the tender offer price of PLN 7. So is there any probability that you will raise your offer price for ENERGA in case you do not receive enough submissions because the current share price is above the PLN 7 that you're offering?
We know that the price on the stock exchange may be volatile. But based on the internal calculations, we propose to pay PLN 7 as today it is PLN 7, so I think [indiscernible] difficult to comment anything further.
And the next question is from Jonathan Lamb from Wood & Company.
In the presentation, in a couple of places, you mentioned the increased labor costs had an impact on the Downstream EBITDA. Can you explain why labor costs are up? And what -- to what extent the impact of that is, if possible?
The labor costs, naturally, in the [indiscernible] have increase, yes. So roughly speaking, a few percent year-on-year, and this is also visible in the higher labor costs in PKN ORLEN. So this is the simple question, yes.
Okay. And can you give any estimation of how big that impact was?
In terms of, let's say, amount PLN 80 million. Yes? PLN 80 million higher cost year-on-year.
And the next one is from Ildar Khaziev from HSBC.
I have a few questions. So first one is on the energy EBITDA contribution. Could you please mention the numbers for the fourth quarter, how much the installations in Plock and [indiscernible] generated during the quarter? That's my first question.
Secondly, could you please explain how exactly the National Index Target impact your costs? How exactly it is applied and to which way? That's my second question. And lastly, I just wanted to understand how -- you have this pretty large investment program. You've been launching new units in refining and petrochemicals. And this will get more aggressive going forward. And also, you have seen a change in the crude mix because of the Saudi crude. How relevant the monthly petrochemical and refining margins, which you published are still -- still are given the changes in the structure. I mean is there a scope for changes in the formula? I mean have -- are they still relevant [indiscernible] margin calculation still reflects your profitability, more or less, given that you have a higher intake of Saudi crude.
Okay. So starting from the energy contribution. So in the fourth quarter, energy added more than PLN 400 million to EBITDA. Out of this, CCGT in Plock generated PLN 66 million, and in Warsaw PLN 53 million. So all in all, CCGT generated roughly peaking up to PLN 120 million in Q4.
No. You said PLN 400 million?
PLN 400 million. Yes. The whole Energy segment. Yes.
And sorry, how much was that last quarter? If you could remind me, please?
Last quarter? So you mean the third quarter?
No. Well, actually, if you could remind the progression for the entire year, that would great, for the year 2019?
We said that this year as yearly results, energy generated PLN 1.6 billion, which is PLN 0.9 billion more than last year. So last year, it was PLN 0.7 billion. So this is due to lower gas prices.
That's great. And beyond the National Index Target?
[indiscernible] This year, we have 8% of National Target Index. In previous, it was 7.5%. Of course, we have possibility to reduce the level of standard using or utilizing at least 70% of bio components purchasing from Polish producers.
Next step, we have also possibility to reduce, to lower the index level, by making payments in so-called substitution fee, which contributes to further savings. So this year -- not this year, but in 2019, and the National Target index was 5.57% roughly against 8% of normal target. And our buyer cost in 2019, in whole year, were, let's say, higher roughly PLN 0.2 billion. And mainly due to higher production of bio components.
And you had the first question regarding?
Model margins. I was just wonder whether the changes in the production mix are already affecting the model margin and whether they're relevant still for you and also given the crude oil mix changes?
I don't think so. So crude oil change in the mix that's not changed, let's say, a significantly model margin.
And the last question for today is a follow up of Piotr Dzieciolowski from Citibank.
I just wanted to understand whether you can put on this energy contribution the CO2 bill? And what's kind of a hedge CO2 price. So I'm just trying to normalize the margin, thinking about the gas, what it was and the CO2 is clearly the component? Because I remember you had fairly good hedges?
And then the second question would be, can you tell us a little bit about the logic, you only do the acquisitions and you expand into different regions and different activities, but what is the logic of keeping some of the activities you have such as Upstream in Canada, what's how do you think -- can you not sell these assets? Or would you consider selling some of the assets you may not fit into this overall integrated complex you're trying to build?
Yes. [indiscernible] like all energy utilities, of course, we have the hedging policy for CO2. So definitely, whatever we sold this year, it was fully hedged. Of course, I cannot say if there was prices. And also, we have the same policy for the next year for our all forward contracts.
Why the past prices a mystery? Why you can't say -- I basically think the CO2 cost will go up significantly. And I'm just trying to -- if you can help me understand by how much, so we can have a bit of a better sense of how much money you will make next year? So if you tell me your [indiscernible] hedge at EUR 5, and you have to buy now at EUR 20, and that's -- or whatever the market price is, I'm not asking about future hedges. I'm just asking what is the physical need of buying it. And how much you paid for it in the past?
As I told you, we have in the past, we bought the CO2 emissions in order to hedge our future sales. So it was hedged, but I cannot tell you, unfortunately, what price, of course. Sorry.
Yes. In terms of our assets and the strategy going forward, as you are aware, this year is a year when we will prepare the update of the strategy. And yes, we are about to build the multi-utility concern, so it implies that we should think about the strategical approach towards all of the assets, which are currently in our possession. So yes, this year, we'll revise and we'll approach some assets probably, but that would will be included in our updated strategy.
Would you consider disposals?
Today, I would not exclude any possible scenario.
And we received a follow up of Oleg Galbur from Raiffeisen.
Just a short question on the Upstream segment. What is the level of production that you expect to achieve this year?
I don't remember exactly the number, but that's -- if I remember, it was 17,700 BOE per day, the total production in Poland. In Canada, probably 17,700 BOE per day. For [indiscernible] let us check and we will answer it later.
Okay. Taking into account, also, Polish asset, altogether, we expect 200,000 barrels per day.
As there are no further questions, I hand back to the speakers for closing words.
Okay. Thank you, operator. If there are no more questions, I would like to thank you for participating in the conference call. This concludes definitely our presentation. Thank you. Have a nice day, and goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.