Orange SA

PAR:ORA

Earnings Call Analysis

Orange Q3 Shows Growth and Efficiency Gains

In Q3 2023, Orange highlighted a robust quarter, with the full effect of price increases resulting in limited churn impact, particularly in France due to a disciplined promotional strategy and implementation of 'more for more' plans. Efficiency and transformation initiatives are on track, including a 7% year-on-year eCAPEX reduction. The Africa and Middle East region delivered a standout performance with over 12% growth. The group's revenue reached EUR 11 billion, a 1.8% increase, primarily driven by retail services. EBITDAaL growth accelerated in Q3, increasing by 1.4%, instilling confidence in meeting full year 2023 guidance. The company reaffirms its commitment to the 'Lead the future' strategy and anticipates the closure of the MASMOVIL joint venture in Q1 2024.

Strategic Disciplines and Guidance

In their recent earnings call, the company successfully executed their strategic disciplines with greater efficiency and a continued transformation agenda, particularly in Orange Business, aligning with Capital Markets Day commitments. They emphasized a disciplined promotional strategy and recent changes that include reducing promotion durations, which should underpin revenue growth in subsequent quarters. With a steadfast focus on cost efficiency, the company expects to meet its full-year '23 guidance confidently due to a third-quarter EBITDAaL (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, Amortization, and Lease) growth acceleration and a notable decrease in CapEx, specifically a 7% reduction in eCAPEX year-on-year.

Revenue Performance by Segments

The group achieved a revenue stream of EUR 11 billion, marking a 1.8% year-on-year increase. This surge was principally driven by a brisk expansion in retail services, which more than doubled the decrease in wholesale revenue. Interestingly, the Middle East and Africa segment stood out as a powerhouse, boasting a double-digit revenue growth of 12.2%. Within France, revenues depicted a marginally sequential improvement toward stabilization, attributable to retail services growth bolstered by price increases that cushioned the expected wholesale decline. Moreover, Europe, Orange Business, and TOTEM segments ended the quarter marginally on the upside.

Retail Services and Regulatory Developments

Retail services, excluding PSTN, rose by 3.4% year-on-year this quarter, staying true to the upper echelon of projections set out during their Capital Market Day. This growth was largely propelled by increased Average Revenue Per Offer (ARPO), especially in the convergent ARPO, which now stands at EUR 74, up by EUR 2.7 year-on-year. The third quarter also enjoyed the total impact of price elevations in a market that has been less dynamic since the year's start. This led to a solid commercial performance in the mobile and fiber sectors. On the other hand, regulatory developments included a consultation process initiated by Arcep concerning the unbundling tariff increase for the next two years, which is poised to improve cost recovery endured by Orange.

European Markets' Performance and Expectations

In Europe, the company's retail services continued to flourish, primarily carried by robust convergent and business-to-business (B2B) growth. Notably, fiber net additions portrayed improvement over the second quarter. The mobile sector temporarily contracted due to one-off disconnections in Romania; excluding this, there were positive mobile contract net adds during the quarter. The subdued growth in equipment sales was anticipated, as was the decline in wholesale, which was partly a consequence of regulatory impositions on mobile termination rates, yet didn't detrimentally affect the EBITDAaL.

Highlights from Spain and Continued Momentum Across Regions

Spain's top-line figures remained relatively stable with continued growth in retail services being partially trivialized by reductions in wholesale. The Spanish market also benefited from disciplined promotional policies, which was reflected in a 3.9% hike in convergent ARPO and notable improvements in churn. Similarly, the African and Middle Eastern operations delivered an exceptional performance, with over 12% revenue growth. Looking ahead, the regions are expected to sustain this positive momentum with 10 out of 16 countries charting double-digit growth, supported by robust retail services and Orange Money revenues growing by an impressive 28% this quarter.

Outlook for Orange Business and EBITDAaL Recovery

Orange Business experienced a gentle uplift of 0.6% in revenues during the third quarter, echoing the growth patterns of the first half of the year. While facing a continuous decline in legacy offerings like Voice, the company is actively driving growth in digital business with Cyberdefense and integration services scaling into double-digit growth territories. The transformation plan focused on Orange Business is foreseen to catalyze an EBITDAaL revival by the year 2025.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Orange's Q3 2023 Results Conference Call on the 24th of October. The call today will be hosted by Ms. Christel Heydemann, CEO; and Mr. Laurent Martinez, Chief Financial Officer, with other members of Orange's Executive Committee.

Without further ado, I will now pass the call to Ms. Christel Heydemann. Please go ahead.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 2023 results presentation that I will comment together with Laurent Martinez, our new Chief Financial Officer.

Let's start directly with Slide 4, which presents the key highlights of the quarter. We continued to drive value this quarter in line with our Capital Markets Day commitments. Indeed, we benefited this quarter from the full effect of price increases with limited impact on churn. More specifically, in France, we continued our disciplined promotional strategy and we implemented more for more plans. We also recently reduced the duration of promotions from 12 to 6 months for all offers. These moves will continue to support growth in the coming quarters.

Efficiency and transformation remain at the center of everything we do, and the trajectory of our cost efficiency plan has been fully confirmed. In addition, we are on track on Orange Business transformation. And on the investment side, we also continued with our strict discipline on eCAPEX with 7% decrease year-on-year this quarter.

Thirdly, I would like to highlight the remarkable and continued performance of Africa and Middle East, which delivered more than 12% growth this quarter, even accelerating compared to Q2.

Regarding the joint venture with MASMOVIL, the antitrust process is ongoing with discussions to resolve the competition concerns regarding the retail market continuing during the stop-the-clock phase. We expect clearance towards the end of this year, and consequently, a closing in Q1 2024.

Finally, this quarter, we once again demonstrated our ability to execute our financial commitments, and we delivered results fully consistent with our full year guidance with an acceleration of EBITDAaL growth in Q3 and a strong decrease in CapEx.

Now let's have a closer look at our main financial KPIs on Slide 5. In the third quarter, the group delivered revenues of EUR 11 billion, up by plus 1.8% year-on-year, driven by robust growth in retail services, which in absolute was more than twice as high as the decline in wholesale. Equipment sales grew at a more modest pace than in the previous quarter.

From a segment perspective, Middle East and Africa contributed most to group revenue growth with double-digit growth of plus 12.2%.

In France, revenues continued overall to improve sequentially towards stabilization In the third quarter, thanks to retail services growth supported by price increases, which partially offset the expected decline in wholesale.

Europe, Orange Business and TOTEM ended the quarter in slightly positive territory.

At EUR 3.6 billion, group EBITDAaL increased by plus 1.4% after 0.5% in Q1 and 1% in Q2, giving us full confidence in reaching our full year '23 guidance.

Finally, eCAPEX was reduced by minus 7% year-on-year, in line with our full year guidance.

With that, I will now hand over to Laurent for the review by business.

[Laurent Martinez, executive]

Thank you, Christel, and pleased to join you for the first time for this third quarter results. So starting with France on Page 7. Retail services, excluding PSTN, were up 3.4% year-on-year this quarter and remained at the top end of the range announced during our Capital Market Day. The growth was driven by the increase in all ARPOs year-on-year, in particular, convergent ARPO, which reached EUR 74, up EUR 2.7 year-on-year.

The third quarter benefited as well from the full effect of the price increase within a less dynamic market since the beginning of the year. In that context, we delivered a solid commercial performance in mobile and fiber and our combined fixed broadband and mobile contract customer base increased year-on-year. We maintained strict promotional policies and continued disciplined value strategy, as mentioned by Christel.

Mobile churn remained moderate with a slight increase in the third quarter. In terms of wholesale revenues, the decline in the third quarter follows the trend of previous quarters and definitively in line with our projection.

On the regulatory side, Arcep initiated the consultation process at the beginning of September regarding the increase in unbundling tariff for '24 and '25. This proposal submitted by Arcep will ensure a better recovery of the cost borne by Orange and secure the assumption made in our strategic plan.

So to conclude, for France, I can confirm the full year outlook outlined in H1 with a decrease in H2 EBITDAaL expected to be slightly better than half compared to the first semester.

Turning to Europe on Slide 8. Retail services continued to grow fueled by our value strategy despite unfavorable by the effect on 2022 price increase, thanks to strong convergent and B2B growth. Fiber net adds have improved compared to the second quarter, and third quarter's mobile net adds were impacted by disconnection of the temporary one-off contract in Romania. Excluding this base effect, there were 101,000 mobile contract net adds positive in the third quarter.

Growth in equipment sales decelerated in the quarters, while the expected decline in wholesale was notably due to regulatory reduction in mobile termination rate without any impact on our EBITDAaL.

Moving to Spain on the next slide. As you see, top line was globally stable this quarter with a continued robust growth in retail services, which was partly offset by the decrease in wholesale, notably due to the regulated reduction in mobile termination rate and the lower sequential growth in equipment sales, both low-margin business.

In this competitive market, we continued to drive values where we're focused on customer value management combined with disciplined promotional policies. These measures were reflected this quarter in an increase of convergent ARPO of 3.9% and the continued very positive improvement in churn of minus 2.6% year-on-year.

Turning to Africa and Middle East business, which again delivered a remarkable quarterly performance with revenue growth of over 12% with 10 out of 16 countries recording double-digit growth, another proof of our business agility and resilience in the region. This performance continued to be supported by very solid retail services growing 12% and double-digit performance on our 4 core drivers, data, fixed broadband, Orange Money and B2B, both on volume and value.

As a result, our customer base reached 148 million, representing 4% year-on-year increase and delivered an average mobile ARPO increase of more than 5%.

Just to conclude, let me highlight the continued strong growth of Orange Money with revenues up by an outstanding 28% this quarter. We definitively do expect a continuous positive momentum looking ahead in the region.

Turning to Orange business on Slide 11. Revenue increased by 0.6% in the third quarter, consistent with the trend of the first semester with strong growth in IT&IS, again outweighed the continued decline in the legacy business, in particular, in Voice. We continued to accelerate digital business as demonstrated by Cyberdefense and integration services with double-digit growth.

As you know, we are fully focused on Orange Business turnaround plan, which will lead to an EBITDAaL recovery in 2025, and our transformation plan is on track. To illustrate couple of data points, product planning and prioritization are progressing full steam to deliver in Q1 '24. Voluntary departure plan in France is on track to benefit Orange Business EBITDAaL in 2024. And finally our ambitious upskilling and reskilling program is up and running and will play a key part in our business transformation.

I will now hand over to -- the floor to Christel, who will conclude today's presentation.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you, Laurent. I would like to end this presentation on the basis of this quarter's results by confirming our 2023 guidance and our full confidence in achieving our Lead the future commitments.

Thank you for your attention. Laurent, the ExCom and myself are now ready to answer your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Mr. Roshan Ranjit from Deutsche Bank.

[Roshan Ranjit, analyst]

I've got two, please. Firstly, just on France. So Laurent, you made a slight tick-up in churn this quarter. Can I just ask on what gives you the confidence in reducing the promotional period for your offers in the domestic market when we combine that with the price increase that we saw this year? Is that just a seasonal uptick this quarter? Or anything you could tell us around the market dynamics will be useful.

And secondly, just on Enterprise. You did confirm on France the kind of second half EBITDAaL trend tracking in line. Is that the same in Enterprise where you're suggesting that H2 will be the same as the H1 decline?

And second, just on Enterprise, you've announced quite a few bolt-on deals recently and that's clearly coming through on the top line. Should we expect more of these type of deals in the pipeline? Or are we now going to bed in the existing deals that you've announced?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you, Roshan, for the question. I will ask Jean-Francois to comment. As you know, we are driving our value strategy in a very careful manner in every country. And indeed, we are monitoring very carefully churn, NPS and we know we have -- we still have the most -- I mean the lowest level of churn in France and it's completely under control but we monitor carefully. And we drive this strategy now for more than a year, but I'll ask Jean-Francois to give you more colors on the market dynamic.

And on the Enterprise EBITDAaL, we are -- as you know, our objective is to drive this turnaround and to have a recovery in 2025. So we haven't -- so we plan to, I would say, improve in H2 compared to H1, but it's still far from being where we want to be, given our objective is to improve and come back into positive territory for EBITDAaL growth in 2025.

So Francois's mic not working, so we'll take another one.

[Jean-François Fallacher, executive]

Thank you, Roshan, for the question on churn in France. So if you remember well, we did a number of moves in terms of prices and the most important one was the one we did at the beginning of this year with a wide back book price increase of EUR 1 and EUR 2. If you remember in Q2, we were commenting on a churn increase of 0.8 points, which was exactly what we were expecting and what we had planned. So very limited increase of churn.

As Christel was saying, I mean, if we look at the French market, we have the best churn of the French market even with this increase. This quarter, it's an increase of 1 point, so very limited increase again. So -- and we did a number of things. Between the Q2 call and now, we've been doing some more for more moves during the month of August.

We've launched a new Livebox, as you have seen, the Livebox 7, with a price increase of EUR 2 versus the previous offers. So this is also a move to create value on the market.

And last but not least, as you have we've obviously, seen and noticed, we have reduced the promotional period of our offers from 12 months to 6 months. This is quite a bold move on the French market.

And to answer the second question that you raised, we're pretty confident, although it's the beginning of this move. We've done that 3 weeks ago. But what we have seen is that 2 of our competitors have followed this move. SFR has followed on most of their offers and Bouygues on their mobile offers. So basically, we are so far pretty confident about this move.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

And maybe to come back on your last question regarding bolt-on acquisition in our Enterprise segment. These remain very limited, I would say, and targeted. But we don't exclude if there are opportunities to continue, and as we said, in particular, on cybersecurity.

[Operator]

We'll be moving to the next question. Next question comes from Mr. Jakob Bluestone from Exane BNP Paribas.

[Jakob Bluestone, analyst]

I just had one, please. I was wondering if you could maybe comment a little bit more on what the current challenges that SFR mean for you? So specifically, do you see us helping to continue to drive up pricing? And also, there's more focus on potential consolidation coming back in France as a topic. Do you think that's something that could happen and something you could participate in?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

So this wasn't an unexpected question, but obviously it's not our role to comment the situation of SFR and even less to speculate about the potential scenario.

Now as you know, given our leading position in France, we cannot be acting on the consolidations. So at least I wouldn't make any comments. And as you know, we remain very focused on driving our strategy and our value strategy. Now I mean, it's not -- I mean, we don't comment the SFR situation, but it's never good news when one of your competitors is going through some turbulence. But very focused on our own strategy.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs.

[Andrew Lee, analyst]

Yes. I have a couple of questions just on kind of your outlook in terms of trends and conscious that we're in Q3, not Q4, but thought I'd have a go anyway. Just on French EBITDAaL, so given your comments on you continue to expect slightly better than halving of your French EBITDAaL declines in the first half of '23 as we move into the second half, it looks like the French EBITDAaL decline run rate will be just above a 2% decline as we head into 2024.

So the question is, is there a scope for French EBITDAaL to stabilize in 2024? Or do you think the likelihood is that it will still decline? And obviously, costs are turbulent at the moment given the macro environment, so do you think underlying structural EBITDAaL growth in France, where do you think that is in France now and into 2024? Any kind of help on that would be really useful.

And then second question, just on Enterprise. Obviously, quite a lot of comments already on the call on Enterprise. Just wondered if you could comment or give us a bit more help on the shape of the recovery in Enterprise. Is that very back end-loaded? Any help there would also be great.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. So regarding the fourth trajectory, let me first remind what we announced in Capital Markets Day, which is that over -- I mean, from '23 to '25, we expect a slightly negative EBITDAaL CAGR. So that's the trajectory. As you know, this is mostly the impact of the wholesale business decrease. As we announced this morning, we are progressing on the regulation side on the unbundling tariff according to what we have in the plan. So that's reassuring, I would say, on the wholesale trajectory. And at the same time, we have our guidance on retail services and we are driving efficiency plans, which is for us the way to secure our EBITDAaL guidance.

But we remain committed to our guidance of a slightly negative EBITDAaL. So that's for '23, '24, '25.

On the Orange Business Enterprise segment, I'll let Aliette comment in more details some of the action and the impact when that would materialize.

The voluntary departure plan, as we've said this morning, we're still in the final phase of the negotiation and it will benefit the P&L, I would say, in 2024 only.

[Aliette Mousnier-Lompre, executive]

So indeed, hello, everyone, Aliette Mousnier-Lompre speaking. So we are driving quite a profound transformation on Orange Business and the plan, as announced, will take 2 years to return to -- EBITDAaL back to growth. We are still targeting EBITDAaL decrease this year and next year, but we are planning a progressive improvement.

So it's not fully back end-loaded as you asked, it's really progressive improvement. This year is more a stop bleeding year, and we should slightly improve our trajectory already in H2 and then more significantly next year.

And we have an improvement plan structured across 4 pillars, which is fully on track and delivering as expected. The first pillar is about refocusing our portfolio. And as announced at the beginning of the year, we will cut by half our product portfolio being sold to customers early next year. And beyond this end-of-sales milestone, we are actively working on the end-of-life of those products to trigger cost savings in our IT and operations and we will already stop 34 products this year and an additional 94 products in '24. So that's the first pillar.

The second pillar is about gaining more profitability in our core business and transforming our core business. We are working very hard to create a network-as-a-service platform experience for our customers, and we are already testing a few features with 2 important customers as a pilot. And generally speaking, we are investing into our digital and IT transformation to gain productivity and efficiency.

The third pillar is about accelerating in digital services. We mentioned a few data points that we are growing well in digital and data business in cybersecurity with Orange Cyberdefense. We have an improvement plan on our cloud activities.

And the last pillar is about all the simplification of our operating model and the cost-cutting plans. Christel mentioned our voluntary departure plan that will shift to operational phase in the coming weeks after clearance of the labor inspectorate authorities, but we are now done with the social process in France. And we have 20 efficiency programs that are progressing in parallel. We gained the 0.3 points of SG&A ratio in H1 and we plan to continue in this direction for the coming semesters and years.

So overall, we are on track and delivering as planned.

[Andrew Lee, analyst]

[indiscernible] front to a back end-loaded that improvement to get to the slight decrease.

[Operator]

I'm sorry. Once again, Andrew, would you mind please repeating your question? The follow-up part.

[Andrew Lee, analyst]

Yes, sure. It was just the words progressive improvement is kind of -- is helpful in the shape of the Enterprise trajectory. I just wondered if that's how we should think about the French EBITDAaL trajectory from here to get to the slight decrease in your guidance?

[Laurent Martinez, executive]

So Laurent Martinez speaking. So just first to confirm our trajectories for the second half compared to the first half. So we'll be around slightly better than half as we outlined in H1.

If we look at 2024, it's a bit early days to confirm the trend. We know that we will have definitively some tailwinds with the energy, which will be, of course, having less an impact on the France EBITDAaL. And the retail services, which we continue to develop. We'll have as well, of course, the wholesale. So a number of moving parts. I will come back to you in Feb with, of course, some colors on this matter.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Nick Lyall from Societe Generale.

[Nick Lyall, analyst]

Can I have a couple of questions, please? The first one was on fiber slowed a little bit year-on-year and also DSL losses have risen. Are you still happy with your previous comments that this is a market slowdown point? Or is this more to do with moving into rural areas where you're moving from a large share to a smaller share? Could you give us a bit of a hand on the broadband losses.

And then secondly, I'll try my luck on Spain, if possible. But is there anything you can tell us about the reasons for the stopping the clock on the deal and where you stand now? And is there still a chance of a deal possibly, theoretically at least by year-end? What does the timing and the process look like from here, please?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. I will answer on the MASMOVIL transaction and then I will let Jean-Francois come back on the market dynamic broadband, fiber and DSL.

So as you know, we entered the Phase 2 early Q2 and we obtained the stop the clock from the commission end of July, which means that the commission knows we are discussing in good faith to find remedies to the concern that they expressed in the statement of objections, which, I remind, do not impact the wholesale market and are focused only on retail services.

We have been -- we are actively discussing. As you can imagine, we cannot make any comments on the content of those discussions given these are all confidential information. But we are, first of all, very solid on the synergies that the transaction with MASMOVIL would create. And we've been reviewing in detail and we're talking about EUR 450 million synergies after the first year's full year. So that's a lot of synergies, which confirm the plan for the JV to really create value in Spain for Spanish customers and create room for investment in infrastructure and to compete as a leader in the Spanish market against Telefonica. But obviously, we still need come to an agreement with -- on remedies and get through the process with the commission.

As soon as we would end, I would say, the stop the clock phase, there would be a market testing from the commission and we expect a few weeks before they can pronounce their clearance, which we still hope and work hard on getting before the end of the year. And then there's obviously some work, more contractual aspect then towards the closing, which we then expect in Q1 2024.

On the French market, Jean-Francois.

[Jean-François Fallacher, executive]

Yes, on the French market, indeed, first of all, I mean, we have seen that there is, let's say, the market slowdown. I mean the market is -- since the beginning of this year are less dynamic than it used to be last year. I mean, for those who follow the French market, you have seen the Arcep publications of Q1 and Q2 confirming that. That's one thing.

Clearly, commenting your feedback on the fiber results, I mean, they are very strong in Q3. I remember we have added 259,000 fiber customers to our base. We will see the results of our competitors. But I guess, once more this quarter, we will be the best in terms of net adds in value.

And I remind that if you are accumulating the number of fiber net adds since 1 year, we have added more than 1,135,000 customers to the base, which is huge. So what I can say is that the sales machine, the fiber sales machine, in France is really on and full steam.

[Nick Lyall, analyst]

Great. But the point -- so you're saying there's no sort of correlation to moving into rural areas. It's purely the market slowdown overall for the French market. It's not that, it's not the rural issue.

[Jean-François Fallacher, executive]

No, it's mostly linked to the market slowdown.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Mathieu Robilliard from Barclays.

[Mathieu Robilliard, analyst]

I had 2 questions, please. First, on France, coming back on some of the topics that have been discussed. In terms of the retail revenues in France in Q3, we've seen a very slight acceleration when I exclude PSTN -- or including PSTN compared to the previous quarter. And so I was wondering whether that was in line with what you expected because I think in H1 you had said you would see -- we should see an acceleration of revenues as the full impact of the price increases was felt in Q3. So I was wondering if there was a little bit more competition that prevented you from a stronger acceleration.

And then looking into 2024, I think, Laurent, you mentioned that energy could be less of a headwind in France in 2024. In my view, it could even be a tailwind. And so I was wondering if at this stage you thought it could be a positive contributor to 2024 French EBITDAaL.

And then the last question was on Africa. There's been obviously a lot of political upheaval in a number of countries where you've been present, and I was wondering how you felt about the evolution of the situation there. If you saw that as a risk or if you felt that your business was quite insulated from all these political changes.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. So on the revenues in France, as you noticed, with plus 3.4% revenue increase this quarter, very important to note we are at the high end of the range we gave at our Capital Market Day of retail services growing, excluding PSTN, between 2% and 4%. So we are in line with what we plan for the period. As Jean-Francois was saying, in a market that's less dynamic since the beginning of the year, we remain very disciplined on promotions and capturing full effect of our value management, so there's no surprise. But as we said, the market dynamic remains slower this year than it used to be. So we are very pleased with the evolution.

By the way, if you add the combined mobile contracts and fixed broadband customer base, we are growing year-on-year.

On the 2024 energy trajectory, indeed, energy will be a tailwind next year compared to what it was. As you know, we are -- I mean, we've been covering our energy costs for next year, not 100%, but to a high degree. So that's one tailwind. On the other side, we have also some headwinds.

So overall, I just reiterate what Laurent was saying, which is it's too early to provide more detailed colors and we stay committed to our obviously '25 guidance, which is a slight decrease on EBITDAaL and working hard on all the levers and the wholesale revenue decrease, trying to contain them. And I remind the progress we are doing with the regulator in France, working hard on our trajectory for retail services, our efficiency plan and keeping CAPEX under control to make sure that cash flow will contribute positively in France over the period.

On Africa, I will ask Jerome to provide more colors, but we've been following the very difficult situation in the region. And lastly, obviously, in the Middle East, it's not the first time, unfortunately, that we are experiencing crisis. We remember the Arab Spring in 2011, the economic crisis in 2016. We have also had a competitive crisis with the example of a Waves and the Orange Money turnaround plan in '21. As you know, there was the crisis in Nigeria, which we exited and we stopped activities in Nigeria in 2019.

So I say overall, we are -- unfortunately, we know how to manage those crises. We are focused, obviously, on the security of our employees. And we have built a very resilient business balanced with over our 18 countries in the region, but with no countries representing more than 15% of our total revenues.

But I will maybe ask Jerome to provide more color. We are not present in all the countries that have been in the news over the summer.

[Jerome Henique, executive]

Yes. Thank you, Christel. I think you covered it pretty well. We are resilient over the years, as Christel said, and we posted a continuous growth during the 25 years of presence in Africa with an acceleration during the past 5 years, and you see again very strong growth this quarter with over 12% growth.

And what we could add is that even the countries in sale, which are particularly facing difficult political environment like Mali or Burkina saw themselves growing 2 digits.

So it shows that all of our countries are contributing to these good results. This is thanks to our policy of local encourage with local management, local subsidiaries, partners -- local partners as well. And as Christel outlined, the diversity of our portfolio with no country representing more than 15% of our revenues, and the agility in the management of the portfolio as underlined as well by Christel with our capability to exit sometimes when the situation begins to be too tough as we did in Nigeria in 2019. Thank you.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Mr. Georgios Ierodiaconou from Citi.

[Georgios Ierodiaconou, analyst]

Yes. The first one is around the service revenue growth in France as we head in 2024. And noted earlier, you mentioned that the reduction in promotional period has been introduced. This looks like a couple of your competitors have also followed. However, it's very hard for us to estimate revenue impacts when it's a front book move, especially given there is a discount now being reduced.

Anything you can share with us that can give us any indications around how meaningful this will be over time and whether it can offset [ in that ] you don't repeat any back book price increases next year?

And my second question is around the antitrust review process. Noted what you mentioned that the stop the clock, you are now in negotiations and then at some point when this ends they will do an in-depth review and come up with a ruling. Should we worry about the fact that the negotiations keep to -- seem to be taking too long? Is that an indication of more being asked from that side? Or is it just a technical delay?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

The line wasn't very good. So I hope we got the question. The last one, I'll take it quickly because it's related to the antitrust process on the Spanish transaction. The fact that it's taking a long time is not a negative sign, I would say, on the contrary, that's because we are very firm on the value we want this deal to create. And we are driving, indeed, the negotiation with very strong positions, obviously, with potential remedy takers. And we will, I mean, obviously, hopefully come back with some more concrete information to the market and for the market test.

And we've been confirming the value and the synergy that this deal would create. So we know exactly what the red lines are and that's why we are very strict in our negotiation and in this process, which indeed is taking a bit more time than we hoped for initially, but that's because we are not accepting, I would say -- and it's a negotiation. So you need parties to agree in an environment where obviously there's pressure on both sides.

On the service revenue growth in France, I'll ask Jean-Francois to comment on the front book/back book dynamic and maybe what we see, what we've been doing and what the market is doing.

[Jean-François Fallacher, executive]

So yes, indeed, I mean, we've been, as you've seen, taking a bold decision, which is to limit the promotional period from 12 to 6 months, so obviously, we expect some effects. Hence, we wouldn't have done such a bold move. I mean, it's obvious that there are, of course, value effects immediately and there will be also a slight churn effect, positive churn effect, as the period for the fixed broadband customers at which price will increase will be in the middle of their 1-year engagement. So that's one side.

Of course, as you know very well it's not going to have the same impact in magnitude the back book pricing increase, and that's obvious. It will take more time but it's going to be after a while material. This is the reason why we took this bold move and we are pretty, let's say, happy to see that some of our competitors have followed the move.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Carl Murdock-Smith from Berenberg.

[Carl Murdock-Smith, analyst]

I wanted to ask about the drivers of revenue eliminations. So eliminations was actually the biggest beat versus consensus today, bigger in absolute terms than any of the divisional beats. Looking at it over the first 9 months of the year, revenue eliminations has reduced by just under 2%, while group revenues has grown by just under 2% on a comparable basis. Can you talk about the main drivers of revenue eliminations because consensus seems to be pinning it to group revenue growth, expecting growing eliminations over time despite the fact that it's currently declining.

So is consensus missing something in terms of the underlying drivers of revenue eliminations? And do you expect eliminations to be -- to broadly increase over time as consensus expects or not?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

I don't have the specific answers. So I'll -- I don't know if Laurent or Jean-Michel wants to take the question. Otherwise, we would come back to you with a very specific answer to this.

[Laurent Martinez, executive]

Yes. Carl, thanks for your question. So I just want to confirm that this elimination of low-margin activities, and we'll come back to you more precisely in terms of why of the evolution on these subjects.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Stephane Beyazian from ODDO.

[Stéphane Beyazian, analyst]

Yes. I've got two. One on fiber, anything you could say about the discussions with the regulator? You know that political pressure and regulatory pressure to complete fiber in France. And whether that could represent a couple of dozens of million euros, perhaps more, in your CapEx.

And going forward, because that's part of the equation, you're definitely on track I think to meet with your free cash flow guidance this year. So that's a nice EUR 500 million increase in free cash flow and for the next EUR 500 million towards the target of EUR 4 billion or more free cash flow in 2025.

Is there anything you could say whether you think progress will be relatively equal between 2024 and 2025 or you think it's going to be perhaps more back end-loaded perhaps, for instance, because CapEx is going to be perhaps more difficult now to improve in 2024. Any comments will be welcome.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. Thank you, Stephane. On the fiber deployment and the discussion with the French government, so this is a very specific aspect of the relation that we are discussing indeed with the French government, which is related to deployment of fiber in mid-density areas, which is L. 33-13 aspect of the law commitments. But this, in terms of our financial trajectory, this would not have impact and our eCAPEX guidance is rock solid and the current discussion don't jeopardize our guidance. We are very focused on making sure that operationally we can satisfy the political will while at the same time ensuring our industrial machine to process. So no impact expected on the financial trajectory.

When it comes to our cash flow trajectory at group level, it's obviously too early to provide more color on '24 and '25, but we are -- obviously, we are reaffirming this morning our full guidance for '23 and our confidence in achieving our guidance for Lead the future and that's the EUR 4 billion cash flow trajectory for '25.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Nicolas Cote-Colisson from HSBC.

[Nicolas Cote-Colisson, analyst]

Two short questions, please, one on the cybersecurity. There's quite a strong growth there, but we don't have much information. So I was wondering what's the reason for not making the activity a more visible segment in a way? Or if you could explain the rationale for cybersecurity to be embedded into OBS? Are there synergies you could not deliver otherwise?

And my second question is on Africa, just a short one. We notice an acceleration in ARPO growth. And I was wondering it was coming from, if it was a product mix. I appreciate there are many countries and different dynamics, but is there a kind of general trend you can identify there?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

On cybersecurity, as you noticed, we are very pleased with the growth trajectory. Cybersecurity is a synergetic activity with the rest of our Enterprise segment. And at this stage, we don't plan to isolate it from a reporting standpoint because of the synergies and our customers who are on the best of our specialty business, I would say, and Orange Cyberdefense is one of them.

But you are right to say that with a revenue close to EUR 1 billion in 2022, it is a significant part of our Enterprise business globally and we plan to continue to drive this business and to increase it. And that's part of our overall Enterprise turnaround plan to continue to grow the cybersecurity business within.

On Africa ARPO growth, Jerome, do you want to give some details?

[Jerome Henique, executive]

Yes. What we can say is that our growth is related to both volume and value. In value what Laurent mentioned is that we are growing by more than 5%, in volume by more than 4%. Usually, it's very solid growth because it's balanced in between volume and value of 50%-50%. Here, this quarter, it's 56% for value and 44% for volume. But we have a chance in most of the countries to still have a very large fishing pool in terms of volume growth with the equipment of the customers.

And in ARPO, thanks to the new services we are offering in not only data but as well as financial services and new data bundles and customer base management policy, we are able to sustain the value growth and the ARPO growth at the same time. So this is the result of a very balanced, let's say, volume and value growth over time and continues.

[Operator]

We have a final question from Mr. Ondrej Cabejšek from UBS.

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

I want to follow up on the revenue trend. So in most markets, you're highlighting sequential improvements, but in Europe we're seeing a bit of the opposite with growth rates coming down a bit from the past year. And I guess you've implemented a couple of price increases across the market going into 2022 as well.

Was wondering in terms of the growth outlook for the rest of Europe, outside of France, what kind of pricing action do you have in store for maybe the growth to, again, back on track, what we saw prior to this quarter, i.e., some kind of low single-digit growth as opposed to just flat in 3Q?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. As you noticed, I mean, in Europe, our retail services growth remained solid and we are really impacted by their wholesale revenues, mostly impact of regulation, and this is a low-margin business. We also have equipment sales slowing down compared to previous quarters.

Pricing actions, we continue to drive them very carefully related to inflation as we've done in the past. So we've had back book, we've had the front book, but again in an environment where we know customers are very sensitive and so it's also a lot of more for more strategy in markets that are overall, as we see in France, a bit less dynamic than we used to see.

So we continue to focus on our value strategy, but in a very careful manner to make sure that we keep NPS at the level expected and level of churn under control. And there's not one 1 magic recipe because every country is very different. We discussed a lot about the French dynamic. You have the details of the Spanish numbers, but Poland is very different from Belgium, very different from Slovakia and Romania.

So very, very disciplined approach overall, but focused on value, focused on customer satisfaction and driving value as much as possible but in a very controlled manner because of the focus on customer satisfaction and making sure that customers get the value that they expect from our services.

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

But there is generally scope for basically single-digit growth across Europe outside of France as well, you would say, and in terms of retail specifically?

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Sorry, not sure I captured that. The retail market dynamics, that's what...

[Ondrej Cabejšek, analyst]

Yes. if that's generally scope for continued low single-digit growth on the retail side in Europe outside of France.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Yes. Yes. Yes, we control.

[Operator]

That was our final question. Yes, Over to you, Ms. Heydemann, for concluding remarks.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Yes. Maybe I will let Laurent come back on the question that we got earlier on eliminations to just provide more details to all participants.

[Laurent Martinez, executive]

Yes. Just to follow up on this one in terms of numbers. We are having an elimination of around EUR 1.8 billion in the first 9 months, which is EUR 30 million above, indeed, what we had in the 9 months of '22, so something which is [ extremely ] negligible. So we'll come back to you if you are interested, by the way of this EUR 30 million. But very, very limited impact, indeed. Back to you, Christel.

[Christel Heydemann, executive]

Thank you. So thank you all for attending, and look forward to certainly meeting some of you on the road in the next day. Thank you all.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. This concludes our conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you, and goodbye.