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Good day and thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Ipsen Year-to-Date 2021 Sales Update. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, David Loew. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon or good morning. I'm delighted to welcome you to our Q3 and year-to-date sales update. I'm David Loew, Chief Executive Officer of Ipsen. It's a real pleasure to be here today to take you through our performance. Please note that this presentation can be found on ipsen.com. Please turn to Slide #2. This is our safe harbor statement, which outlines the routine risks and uncertainties contained within this presentation. Also any commentary on growth you'll hear today will be based on constant exchange rates. Please turn to Slide 3. I'm joined today by our CFO, Aymeric Le Chatelier. We'll begin with a brief presentation before using the majority of the time to answer your questions. Please turn to Slide 4. The headlines today focus on our sales performance that continues to progress in line with our strategy for growth. Total sales in the year-to-date increased by 12.3% to EUR 2.078 billion, with Specialty Care growing by 12.5% to EUR 1.9 billion. Q3 was a particularly strong quarter with total sales growing by 14.9% to EUR 727 million, supported by market share gains and market expansion. There was clearly also an overall COVID recovery benefit in the year-to-date. Since the start of the year, we have seen gradual improvements in patient visits and in-person detailing, but these obviously still remain below the baseline of early 2020. Turning to the pipeline. You will have seen the news in August that we withdrew our NDA in the U.S. for palovarotene, following ongoing dialogue with the FDA. It was clear that we wouldn't be possible to complete additional analysis and the evaluation of the data within the NDA review cycle. Upon successful completion of the additional data analysis, however, we currently anticipate resubmission in the U.S. in the first half of next year. In the European Union, a clock-stop was recently granted by the EMA. Our external innovation strategy continues to make progress, and we were very pleased to announce the further replenishment of our pipeline with 3 clinical agreements in oncology and neuroscience. More on that in a moment. Finally, based on the very strong performance, we have upgraded our 2021 guidance again today. Aymeric will take you through that later. Please turn to Slide 5. Focusing on oncology, we increased the sale of our medicine, delivering 11% growth in the first 9 months of the year and increasing market share. Somatuline sales were up by 8.5%, with good performance supported by further market share gains. We did observe the launch of generic lanreotide in Germany in July, and we have not seen a material impact on Somatuline sales so far. Decapeptyl's strong showing was driven by the performance in China, partially reflecting the comparison to the first half of last year. We grew Decapeptyl's market share in the period and continue to focus our efforts on the 6-month formulation. Cabometyx in monotherapy delivered strong volume growth, mainly in second-line renal cell carcinoma, across most geographies. The recent launch in Germany of a combination with nivolumab is performing in line with our expectations, and we look forward to further launches next year. Onivyde was growing 10.4% year-to-date, with growth having been impacted particularly by the effects in half 1 from the pandemic in the U.S. and the third quarter, which shows a recovery. Onivyde sales were helped by higher sales to Ipsen's ex-U.S. partner, Servier.Please turn to Slide 6. We also increased sales significantly outside of oncology. Neuroscience dominated by Dysport delivered strong growth of 25%, driven by an encouraging recovery from the pandemic in most markets. With the recovery in the neurotoxin market in the second half of last year, we're now seeing a somewhat reduced benefit from the pandemic comparative, but underlying market dynamics continue to be very attractive for this work. There was a good Dysport performance in the North American and European therapeutic markets. Ipsen Galderma also posted well in their respective aesthetics market, and we saw an addition encouraging potential from newer markets such as Russia and the Middle East. I also want to mention the important launch this month of Alluzience, the first ready-to-use liquid botulinum toxin type A to be launched in Europe. It's being brought to the market by Ipsen and Galderma in its respective territory. Please turn to Slide 7. I'm very pleased with the strong growth so far this year in our Consumer Healthcare business. It was a very encouraging performance as we gradually began to exit the pandemic with the recovery of the diarrhea and bowel-cleansing market, particularly in China and Russia, and good Smecta OTC sales. There is no update today on the strategic review of the business, which is progressing.Please turn to Slide 8. As I mentioned a moment ago, we advanced our external innovation efforts in the period, bolstering our pipeline with further agreements in both oncology and neuroscience. This week's agreement with Accent Therapeutics adds to the announcement of our collaboration with BAKX Therapeutics as we expand further into hematological malignancies, including a focus on acute myeloid leukemia.I was also delighted by the exclusive collaboration with Exicure, this time building a or capabilities in neuroscience, therapeutic area deeply rooted within Ipsen as a key strategic driver. Under this agreement, we obtained exclusive options to spherical nucleic acids currently on the discovery evaluation for Huntington's disease and Angelman syndrome. This collaboration marks an important step in maximizing the potential of this novel technology. We're very pleased with these arrangements. And given the clear strategy and increased focus of a stronger team, we can expect more to come.Please turn to Slide 9. Turning to the pipeline. I wanted to draw your attention to several updates. Please note that the clinical trials breakdown is contained within the appendix of this presentation.In oncology, we received regulatory submission acceptance in the European Union in August for Cabometyx in differentiated thyroid cancer. To remind you, this is a small financial opportunity but a big potential step for patients.We also look forward to the overall survival readout from the RESILIENT Phase III trial in the second half of 2022 for Onivyde in a second-line small cell lung cancer. Final overall survival data is anticipated early next year from the Phase III COSMIC-312 trial for the combination of Cabometyx plus atezolizumab in first-line hepatocellular carcinoma. So we confirm based on preliminary OS data from the COSMIC-312 trial, the probability of reaching physical significance at the time of the final analysis is anticipated to be low.Turning to rare disease. We fully expect to see the first patients dosed very soon in the FALCON Phase II trial for IPN6130 in FOP. Details of the trial can be seen on ClinicalTrials.gov and in the appendix of this presentation.Finally, in neuroscience, we announced a worldwide agreement in July with IRLAB for mesdopetam in levodopa-induced dyskinesia with Parkinson's disease. Mesdopetam is currently in Phase IIb development, where we anticipate seeing data next year.With that, I will now hand over to Aymeric, and please turn to Slide 10.
Thanks, David. I want to provide you now some detail on our upgraded 2021 guidance. We now believe that total sales should grow by at least 11% at constant exchange rate this year as compared to the previous guidance of sales growth greater than 8%. This reflects, first, the strong performance to date of all our key medicines but also a better-than-anticipated pandemic condition in the second half of this year as well as a lack of significant generic competition so far to Somatuline in Europe.On foreign exchange, we continue to expect an adverse impact from currencies on total sales of around minus 2% based on the level of exchange rates at the end of September. Given our new sales outlook, we are raising our 2021 core operating margin guidance to around 34% of total sales compared to the previous expectation of around 32% of total sales. This reflects a lower level of spend related to the pandemic, impacting travel expenses and marketing and medical activity. Even so, we anticipate an uplift here in the final quarter of this year. Note that we do not expect any material impact of R&D cost from the excellent innovation transaction announced this year.I also want to reiterate that we are committed to driving long-term efficiencies, including in manufacturing, digitalization and process optimization to sustain our level of profitability while investing in our pipeline.I will now hand you back to David. Please turn to Slide 11.
Thanks, Aymeric. This concluding slide may well be familiar to many of you and it's a great way to sum up why Ipsen continues to grow. We have made real progress on maximizing our brand so far this year. Somatuline sales were up by 8.5%, with all of our other major medicines in double-digit growth. This performance was not just because of year-on-year pandemic conditions but also good in-market performance.We're in the early stages of driving efficiencies across Ipsen, and we are focusing on initiatives which will generate quick wins and also longer-term savings. And more recent external innovation agreements demonstrate that we're on track to keep strengthening our pipeline.Finally, it's our focus on culture and collaboration that has delivered improving levels of execution. We're only a part of the way through the process of building a distinctive organization and culture with a strong focus on excellence in execution, sustainability and on -- what truly makes a difference for patients. It's a pleasure to be on this journey with my colleagues around the world.Thank you so much for listening. And Aymeric and I will be happy to take your questions now.
[Operator Instructions] And we will now take our first question from the line of Matthew Weston at Credit Suisse.
Can I take 2 questions on the FOP pipeline, please? I'm very interested about the statement in the release about refiling in the first half of 2022. There seems to be quite a lot of debate in the market this morning as to whether that's a reiteration of your previous goals and time lines or whether that's got more stretched and pushed out based on the incremental requirements that maybe you've got from EMA or others? So first of all, I'd love to understand if you can just characterize that 1H '22. Is it a conservative window? Or is it that you've now realized that you need more than perhaps you thought when you first had your discussion with FDA that led to the withdrawal?And then secondly, on the Blueprint asset, I'm just very interested as to what led you to start the Phase II now. I think we've all been sitting watching it in the pipeline. I don't believe you've got any incremental data. So why the decision to start the Phase II now versus when you could have done maybe a year ago?
Thank you. So on your first question on palovarotene, on the refiling, when we look at the FDA request, we came to the conclusion that it will really require a little bit of time to go back, work with the providers and the centers to collect the additional data. Remember, it's a comparison against natural history study. And based on that, we have estimated now that we are most probably going to file beginning -- or H1, 2022.The exact month, we have to see, while we are conducting the analytics and correlating the additional data. But for now, that's our best estimation.On Blueprint, why now? So you have seen that we have originally communicated that we would start in H1. We are starting now probably next month to include the first patient. We wanted to be sure that we're absolutely having the right dose. And I think we have now a total agreement on the protocol with FDA. That took a bit of time. And we are now opening up the centers as we speak, and we should really have the first patient in the next month.
Can I just have one quick follow-up and push you a little bit more on palo? I don't recall that there were a lot of patients in the study. So I'm just surprised as to the length of time it takes you to go and reevaluate because I think I'm right in saying in the past, you said you don't need to collect any more data. So it must be going back to scans and blood samples and asking specific questions. It seems a lot of time for a very small number of patients. What am I missing?
No, you're not missing anything. It is, as I said, more complex study than what you usually have because you have natural history in there. We need to look at the scans, again, et cetera. So I can't elaborate on -- more on the details because we have also competition in that space. And so that's what I can tell you today.
We will now take our next question from the line of Thibault Boutherin from Morgan Stanley.
My first would be on Somatuline. Do you have any more insights in terms of the issues that your -- that the generic competitors are facing because we see -- what we are seeing in the data is very, very little market share for Advanz in Germany, no launch elsewhere. And for Teva, it looks like from the data we see that actually volumes and sales are actually declining over time and are actually losing market share. So for your intelligence, from what you're seeing on the market, is there anything you can tell us on what's happening here? And is the situation likely to change eventually? And then just to come back on the FOP assets, when I look at ClinicalTrials.gov, it looks like in terms of completion for the Phase II, it's indicated 2025. Is there any chance of seeing data before that time?
Yes. Thanks, Thibault. The -- we don't -- you would have to ask the question to Advanz and Pharmathen. Obviously, Pharmathen is also producing octreotide generics.As we have always said, it's difficult to produce product. When you look at their -- the range, it looks like our former syringe, which is a bit unstable. You look at their products, it contains some bubbles. So it's basically coming back to what we said. It's difficult to produce product. It's very, very different than if you produce, for example, a chemical substance or an antibody. So in that sense, we can only kind of speculate that they must still face difficulties in the production itself. It explains why they have only launched in Germany so far. Of course, we always have to be prudent. I mean perhaps at one point, they are going to get better. But so far, it really looks as if they are struggling.I mean the next launches, which we probably could observe with Norway and Denmark because they have been bidding in tenders, in Norway would be in November. So of course, these are 2 very small markets with small volume. So perhaps they can deliver there, but it remains to be seen. It remains to be seen also what's happening with their launches in other countries because they seem not to be advancing very fast. Octreotide, you have seen that Novartis, even after 2 years of having a generic on the market, has actually shown in H1 2021, flat sales. That's very atypical for originated products when you actually have a generic on the market. So that's why we always said, we anticipate a relatively low erosion, gradual. Of course, we always have to be prudent because we have to see what happens also in the U.S. So that's where we are today.On FOP, on the clinical trial, the Phase II trial, you need to remember that there are -- there's not many identified patients around the world. There are roughly 1,000 patients around the world. And so it's just the sheer fact of identifying them, getting them included into clinical trial is, of course, quite a laborious process. And that's why we have given those kind of estimations in ClinicalTrials.gov.
We will now take our next question from the line of Keyur Parekh from Goldman Sachs.
Two, please, if I may. The first one, just coming back to palovarotene. Wondering, David, if you can kind of talk to your level of confidence that the new data and analysis that you are likely to do over the next few months will still support a filing for this asset in the first half of '22? Perhaps you want to share with us a bit about what is the nature of this analysis that you're going to do?And then secondly, on kind of on -- one for Aymeric, kind of -- obviously, you've upgraded margin guidance kind of through the start of this year a couple of times. How should we think about the margin outlook going into '22? Should we -- how much of this 34%, the savings that you're having from COVID are likely to continue into next year? Is 34% a good starting point for us to think about margins in '22?
Thank you, Keyur. So I'll start with palo, confidence on refiling. I mean we have always said that the filing of palovarotene is not going to be a walk in the park, obviously, because you remember, we have had, first, safety issues and we have had a statistical analysis.So I think our confidence has not really changed. We need to now collect that data, look at the data, analyze it and then collect it and submit it. So for the moment, it doesn't really change our expectations on probability. Of course, we always need to be cautious. We also have to [ count ] with an Advisory Committee that we have always said. So that's still going to be the same thing. We still are anticipating an Advisory Committee.Perhaps on the margin outlook, I hand over to Aymeric.
Yes. So regarding the margin for 2022, I'm not going to provide you the guidance in advance of our February announcement next year. But clearly, to provide you some elements, as you point out, the performance this year is also benefiting of this COVID environment, where we have a very low level of travel, where we have a lower activity both in medical and marketing. So we anticipate that next year, there will be some recovery in terms of activity and there will be some costs associated with that.Then on top of that, you have to factor also that we're going to be launching 9ER for Cabometyx. We're going to be preparing for the launch hopefully of palovarotene. So there will be also some large investments. And then I will say the margin is going to be highly impacted by the scenario we will provide you on Somatuline. And as you know, if there were to be more generic pressure in 2022, this will have some pressure on our margins. And that's why we continue to accelerate on the efficiency program to make sure we'll be able to lead as much as possible, all this impact to sustain some level of profitability.
We will now take our next question from the line of Delphine Le Louet from Societe Generale.
A follow-up on palovarotene, sorry for that, but a clarification regarding EMA process. And I was wondering why you stopped the clock? Where are we exactly into the process? And how you make them going in the same direction as the one in the U.S.? Meaning that at the beginning, you said Europe was very dependent -- independent from the U.S. and you can go on a stand-alone basis in Europe. So why being in a stop-clock position right now? Where exactly in the process are we? Before day 180 or after that? So just to be clear on that and to see any time frame for Europe versus U.S.Second question on Somatuline. We have a landscape now, which is clearer and clearer regarding generic. And we also know far better than even in the 3 months before, regarding any generic scenario and impact on revenue. So why not -- or can we expect as soon as next year to get a clearer path in terms of midterm scenario for the margin, talking about 25%? Is it something that you have in mind or not?Third question regarding the recent acquisition that you've been doing in hematological malignancies. The space is quite populated, I would say. So why have you choose this one? And how can you make a difference compared to cell therapy approach, for instance?
So on your first question on palovarotene and EMA, we have decided to go with clock stop because we think that the additional analytics, which were asked by FDA, are going to be also relevant for EMA. Of course, that these 2 authorities often talk to each other, even if they can come to different conclusions and if they also sometimes make different decisions. But when you have a filing, you want to have one filing. So this is why we decided to go on clock stop. So the clock stop can go until April next year. On the 180 days, I would have to come back to you on these very detailed question. So we will get back to you on this one.On the Somatuline generics, I do agree, of course, that in 2022, it should -- certainly towards the end of 2022, become clearer what the situation is exactly. We need to, of course, always keep in mind that also generic players can improve their processes or they can add new lines and et cetera. So I want to just be a bit careful there not to speculate too much. And we're going to provide you, of course, more guidance at the beginning of 2022, how we think about 2022.Regarding your margin question, 25%, I'll let Aymeric answer.
Yes. So regarding that guidance, I think your question is referring to the fact that at our last Capital Markets Day, we did not provide a precise guidance on the core operating margin. As you see since that date, we are clearly overperforming and reaching today a guidance around 34%. So we're very pleased with that performance. And this is something that will allow us to invest more and to face the positive impact of generics, but also to replenish our pipeline. And as you remember, this is why we've initiated also the efficiency on the cost, to ensure that we can protect our profitability as much as we can for that transition period where we are facing the potential entry of more generic for Somatuline, but also with the top priority to replenish our pipeline, which will require also some higher R&D costs.So we're going to come back later when we have more visibility, as David said, on the generic of Somatuline and as you point out on your questions, on what could be the profitability that we have once we've delivered on the efficiency, taking into account the level where we are today and the level of investment from the external innovation.
So then answering your third question, the remark that you're making, you can basically almost make it for any oncology indication these days. Several tumors and hematological indications are crowded. What convinced us on the METTL3 is that we believe there is a very high unmet medical need in AML in like 4 areas. For example, first, resistant/refractory disease; in second, minimal residual disease; in third, post-transplant; but even also fourth, in the first-line unfit patient population. And that drug could be given either in monotherapy or in combination regimen, and we think it has a promising mechanism of action.Please also remember that we announced the BAKX deal in July, where we are targeting a potential apoptotic therapy in the BCL-2 pathway. And that could provide also an option for AML, especially in patients that failed a BCL-2 inhibitor therapies like Venetoclax, for example.
We will now take our next question from the line of Rosie Turner from Barclays.
Sorry to ask another one on palo. Hopefully, this is the last one. Can you just confirm on that filing, so it is going to be filed for the same population previously? There's no risk that it ends up just being a subgroup? And then just on the cabo combos, I mean, there is some interesting data coming next year, I guess, in prostate and in non-small cell lung cancer. Can you just remind us of the timings and kind of how they're progressing? That would be great.
Yes. Thank you. So Rosie, I can confirm that the filing is going to be in the same population, so it's not going to be different subgroups.And then on your question on the cabo combos, I just want to correct what you said. It's not 2022. It's 2023, and we have always said that at the Capital Markets Day. So of course, these are 2 potentially large indications: metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer and second-line lung cancer. So we are looking forward for those results. And we will soon start prelaunch activities, just in case. Some of them are going to pan out positive.
And we will now take our next question from the line of Zain Ebrahim from JPMorgan.
Zain Ebrahim, JPMorgan. I just had a couple. So my first question is on Cabometyx, the first line [ renal ]. So you mentioned it's progressing in line with expectations. Just wondering if you can give us maybe a little bit more on the dynamics you're seeing between uptake and first line versus second line currently and early feedback?And then my second question is on the Phase IIb for mesdopetam, which are licensed from IRLAB with the data readout next year. Just thinking about maybe what would be the hurdle for it to [ grow in your decision ] on Phase III? And what was with regard as a [ community ] improvement in dyskinesia?
It was a bit hard to hear you, but I will try to kind of sum up the questions, let's see if I got it right. So on Cabometyx you would like to get more illustration on what's happening on the first-line and second-line mix and also how is the first-line launch going in Germany.So on the cabo sales, you see quite a nice growth on Cabometyx. Of course, the majority is still coming from second-line market share gains or also the new markets where we are introducing the drug, and it's both in renal cell and also somewhat in hepatocellular. Hepatocellular is, of course, smaller than renal cell.Remember also that growth comes from market share gains, but also by the fact that because of the long treatment duration, with new patients coming on to the drug, you're adding up patients that are on Cabometyx. So that's also a nice sales driver.And then on the first line, this is a much bigger pool than the second-line patients. So we have kind of the first, I would say, qualitative feedback from Germany. We are going to get market share data at the end of October, and it's market share data for all treatment in first line, meaning that it's not just a new patient share that you would typically see with Exelixis. In the U.S., you have much more detailed data on the split between new patients initiated and total patients being on drug.So we hear positive feedback from Germany, in line with our expectations. Of course, we have an attitude which is more conservative in Europe. The monotherapy patient pool is much bigger than in the U.S. So in Europe, it's like the 40%, the monotherapy still. And inside of the 60% combo, you have also in Europe an attitude with IO/IO. So the TKI and IO/IO segments are the 2 major segments in the combination part. And inside of the TKI containing, you have, of course, axi pembro, and we are the new combination on the block. We get positive feedback against the axi pembro regimen because we see better response rates, PFS. We have good OS, and we have very good tolerability. And that whole thing in the equation actually improves, in the end, the quality of life. And that's a new equation that oncologists need to get used to because usually, they always go for PFS. Then when PFS gets improved significantly, they look very carefully at the OS, and we have seen very strong OS improvements in combination regimens.But then when you start to look at the OS, you need to also start looking at the toxicity and at the quality of life. And that's kind of a bit of a dogma change, if you want, in that space because these new combination therapies have different characteristics. And we believe we have a very competitive regimen. So that's also first feedback that we're getting back from the market.Regarding your second question on the Phase IIb, what would be the kind of the hurdle, what would make us go into a Phase III? It's really the time of symptom improvement of dyskinesia. Can you really extend versus, let's say, standard of therapy, the symptom-free time interval on dyskinesia. Because as you know, many patients under dopamine treatments are eventually going to develop dyskinesia. And it's a very disturbing side effect of the dopamine therapy. So it's an important piece of giving them back, a more normal life and not having this dyskinesia. That would be really, for us, the criteria to move forward with that drug.
We'll now take our next question from the line of Matthew Weston at Credit Suisse.
Just a follow-on question. I don't think I've been on an Ipsen call where there have been so many pipeline questions and so few in-market product questions. So Aymeric, it's probably a question for you. There's been an awful lot of moving parts this year. And clearly, Somatuline is a big focus, and I understand that making predictions there are challenging because some of it is not in your hands. But I'd be very interested outside the Somatuline piece, what you would just point to in terms of trends and headwinds as we go into a more normalized year in 2022? So we don't all get carried away with ourselves on the model taking Q3 trends for everything and growing them further out. Maybe that's what we should do. I'd be very interested in your answer. But anything where you can give us some guidance as to it's recovering from a COVID bolus and it's now at a normalized level or you still see a lot of incremental runway, I think, would be very helpful on the in-market drugs.
Okay, Matthew. So I will try to do my best to your questions. So clearly, the performance of key product, Somatuline in Q3, some of that was boosted by the COVID in the baseline, but let's take some of the key products.If you start with Cabometyx, I think we're very pleased with more than 20% top line growth. I think Cabometyx should continue to grow, clearly. I think this performance has been driven only by the monotherapy. We expect the combo to continue to drive clearly market share. And also, we're adding more and more country and part of the performance today is also adding country. And so we believe that we should be able to offset part of the second line/first line that David described in the future and continue to have a nice growth to be able to reach the peak rate that we provided of EUR 700 million, including the risk-adjusted LCL.I think Decapeptyl, there are clearly some specific impact. This is not a growth that will continue to grow 15% as we did in Q3, as we are doing year-to-date. There is some baseline impact. China is going to be more complicated. Here, we are benefiting of recovery from COVID. We continue to see a low to mid-single-digit growth for Decapeptyl. There are clearly potential here. We are also moving to more longer formulation. But China is going to be a challenge, as many of you know, going forward.And then if I really focus on Dysport, I think Dysport has an outstanding performance, as you've seen in Q3, recovering very well from a comparative basis. But even in Q3, we -- last year, we had some recovery from COVID. I think the aesthetic market has a very dynamic trend, and we continue to see the aesthetic market as a very dynamic market. And we see a lot of potential in the therapeutic. So there is no reason for this -- for it not to continue to grow something close and better than the market, which is low single digit to -- low double digit to high single digits over the long term. So hopefully, that gives you some indication of our in-line products.
There are no further questions coming through. Please go ahead.
So thank you very much, everybody. This ends our call, and looking forward to seeing you in the near future. Bye-bye.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.