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Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the GTT Third Quarter 2020 Activity Update. [Operator Instructions] I do have to advise you that the call is being recorded today on Wednesday, the 28th of October 2020. I should now hand over to your host for today, Marc Haestier. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and good evening, everybody. So without any further delay, I will start directly this presentation with the main highlights for the third quarter of 2020.So first of all, in terms of core business, we've had a fairly good flow of orders. And also quite some diversification in the types of orders we have received.In the third quarter, as such, we had 10 new orders, 6 for LNG carriers and 4 for the VLEC ethane carriers, very large ethane carriers. Which means that at the 30th of September, we've had a total of 28 new orders. 18 LNG carriers, 1 FSRU, 2 FSUs, 4 VLECs and 3 on storage, hence, the diversified portfolio of orders I was just mentioning.Now if we add to that 10, the orders for 10 -- the order for 10 additional LNGC, we've just announced it, year-to-date, now it's a total of 38 new orders.On LNG as a fuel, we've had no further orders. The order book has slightly evolved since we've had the delivery of the first CMA CGM, very ultra-large containership. And we have 17 vessels in the order book.On the front of service contracts, we -- in July, we've signed 2 additional global technical service agreements, 1 with Knutsen in Norway and another 1 with a company called Fleet Management in Hong Kong.Another contract we have signed in September related to a contract with the U.S. Department of Defense for the Red Hill Bulk Fuel Storage Facility in Hawaii. So this is a renovation of fuel tanks for the supply of the Pearl Harbor facility.On the acquisition front. In this quarter, we've made 2 further acquisitions following the acquisition of Marorka earlier this year. First one is a company called OSE Engineering, which is a French company which specialize in smart algorithms, artificial intelligence. And very recently, the acquisition of Areva H2Gen, which is a French company specialized in electrolysis who were using a specific technology called PEM, Proton Exchange Membrane.A word about the KFTC, Korean Fair Trade Commission, investigation. You saw probably our press release of last week. So in October, there was the issuance of a confidential examiner's report, but also the announcement of a hearing of the case, which took place on October 21. The decision following this hearing is pending.So that's for the highlights. Just coming back for a second on the order book. So this is at 30th of September, so it doesn't include the latest 10 orders just announced. So the order book stands at 135 units and is, of course, the majority is LNG carriers, 108; 10 ethane carriers; 5 FSRUs; 2 FSUs; 1 FLNG; 6 onshore storage tanks; and 3 GBS, gravity-based systems.So the movements in the order book were 28 new orders, as I just mentioned, and there were also 26 deliveries during the period for 23 LNG carriers, 2 FSRUs and 1 FLNG. On LNG as a fuel business, 17 units, 13 ultra-large container ships, 1 cruise ship. The conversion of a container vessel for Hapag-Lloyd and 2 bunker ships. So no new orders. And 2 deliveries, 1 being the first very large container ship for CMA CGM and 1 bunker ship. Now maybe just a word on the market situation, the LNG market situation. First of all, our traditional slide on supply and demand, which hasn't evolved since, I think, for the interest of communication. So we are still seeing this growing gap between supply and demand culminating to 200 -- the need for 240 additional million tonnes per annum by 2035. And also, there's been a small slowdown in demand because of the impact of the COVID crisis. That has, if you like, moved backwards a little bit the balance in the market to 2027.So although new production capacities will be required to bridge this gap between supply and demand, in fact, in 2021. So far, we have not seen any new FID investment decisions. You would also recall that 2019 was a record year in terms of FIDs with 77 million tonnes commissioned. But so far, no decision this year and a number of projects, all decisions have been delayed probably to 2021, but will be required in many cases.We have also listed a number of projects, we think could be decided in the nearer future, 1 in Mexico, 1 in Russia, 1 in the U.S. and Mozambique, and of course, the famous Qatar project.If we take a slightly shorter-term view on the market, what we are seeing after the outbreak of the pandemic, we are seeing an LNG market, which is rebalancing. And, of course, we are looking at the short end of the market. And specifically, what's happening in the spot prices and charter rates. What we are seeing is that charter rates are largely improving. Course, there is a seasonal effect, but still, we are seeing less -- well, a bit more tension in the spot market with charter rates picking up.You can also see on the chart that the spot prices for LNG in Asia and Europe have been increasing quite significantly, increasing quite strongly. The spread between those prices and the U.S. gas price based on the Henry Hub Index.We mentioned at the half year that we were seeing some cancellations of cargoes in the U.S. This has now been decreasing. And we are expecting full utilization of capacities by November of this year. So again, the market seems to be rebalancing.A focus on China, which you know is a large importer of LNG, and we are seeing for the period January to August, more recent data are not yet available, but for that period, we're seeing LNG imports from China increasing in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.A lot, of course, of the imports, LNG imports in China are based on long-term contracts. So the impact of the pandemic has been less felt. And this has also translated in a 12% increase in Chinese import over the first 8 months of this year.Just coming back to the acquisition of Areva H2Gen, which is very recent. We closed the acquisition Monday last week, which is, as I mentioned in the highlights, a leader in PEM electrolysis and specialized in the design and assembly of the machines for production of green hydrogen.Some details on the company. It was created in 2014. It's, in fact, the only company to actually manufacture electrolyzers in France. There is another French company who manufactures these machines but based on a different technology, but the manufacturing doesn't take place in France, it's in other countries, other European countries. Company provides, of course, engineering and services and is a technology company, so close to our DNA with clearly a lot of research and development.The application is classically for industry, mobility and storage of energy. The company, we believe, is well positioned to take advantage of the strong growth, which is expected in the green hydrogen market. So this acquisition really confirms our commitment to the energy environmental transition. It's clearly in line with our development strategy and our mission statement, which we have published recently.And we can see synergies through combined technological expertise, but also our knowledge of energy players and our commercial capacity, which will, of course, benefit this company.A further word on the Korea Fair Trade Commission inquiry. So as I said, the hearing took place, well, actually a week -- last week on Wednesday. GTT of course, participated in this hearing with its counsels. And we have also, of course, prior to this hearing responded to the preliminary conclusions of the examiner -- I always stumble on this one, on this report. Of course, we will keep the market informed of the outcome and of the decision of the KFTC when it will be published.To end this with a few numbers. So revenues for the first quarter. So we have achieved 300 and -- in round numbers, EUR 306 million of revenues, which is an increase of 53% compared to the same period last year. Of course, this is essentially on the back of the very strong level of orders we've had in 2019 and 2018. See that royalties for newbuilds have increased by 56%. And we're also getting some revenues from our new activities, LNG as a fuel and GBS.For services, I guess, as was the case for the first half of this year, have suffered a bit more from the pandemic with a decrease of 5% of the revenues for services. And this is, of course, a contrasted picture depending on the type of services you are looking at, but clearly, where services concern vessels in operation, for example, so assistance to maintenance and things like that, clearly, the restrictions in travel have had an impact on that part of the activity.On the other hand, we've had higher revenues for studies. I usually explain that studies can be a bit lumpy. A small number of studies with a fairly high value. So we've had a few more studies this year than we had in the first 3 quarters of last year.So that's it for the formal part of the presentation, except that I would still like to end by confirming our outlook for 2020. So in terms of revenue, we are looking at a range of EUR 375 million to EUR 405 million. As far as EBITDA is concerned, we are expecting a range between EUR 235 million and EUR 255 million. And our dividend policy remains unchanged for 2020 and 2021 with a payout of at least 80% of consolidated net profit.So that's it for this presentation. And now I would be happy, of course, to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Jean-Luc Romain from CIC Market Solutions.
Congratulations on the figures. I have 2 questions actually. Recently, Daewoo communicated that they received orders for 12 LNG carriers? I was wondering if you were already notified of these new orders or if it's still to come later in the year maybe?And my second question relates to Total announcement this morning about for Aframax tankers. This kind of LNG fuel tankers, does it require membrane technology? Or is it more Type-C technology?
Okay. So for the first question, well, since we have not announced any further orders. Clearly, it means that we have not yet been notified. But clearly, considering our market position, you will see when these will materialize in new orders.For the Total, although I haven't seen this announcement, but so I'm not in a position to say whether they will be good candidates for membrane or for Type-C but I can certainly look into that, if you like.
Our next question is from the line of Peter Testa from One Investments.
I was wondering if you could just give us some understanding, please, of the order book delivery schedule for '21 and '22, whether there's been any particular change.
Yes, you will have seen that at the half year, we have -- we published the order book and how it translates into revenues in the following years. I guess, that's what you are referring to. We do not usually publish that at quarters, i.e., first quarter or third quarter. But of course, the changes will relate to the new orders received since then. But there is no other, if you like, particular reasons for any change.If what you are pointing at is any potential delays or cancellations, there have been no cancellation of orders. And the shipyards are operating quite normally so there's nothing really to mention here.
Okay. And then when you look at new orders that you're discussing in your pipeline now, to what extent could there still be anything that gets delivered for late '22 in some of the special vessels, for example? Or would most of you talking about '23 or in the case of the Russian orders, a bit later?
In terms of delivery, well, really the question -- orders we receive now, let's say, will start generating revenues when the actual construction of the ships begin. So that can be several months from now. And then the construction period will be something like 18 to 24 months. And of course, I would say, construction schedules in each of the shipyards will also have an impact on when the construction starts and therefore ends. So I would not expect what -- some of the orders we received today will impact, of course, revenues in, say, '21, but mainly 2022 and also 2023 for those ships, which are due to be delivered later in 2023. But -- so it really...
I didn't know whether any of the other special vessels had different profiles on delivery given -- the tanks, for example, in China and these sort of things.
Yes. Well, that can be a bit different. But FSRUs, for example, are quite similar to LNG carriers. The tanks -- onshore tanks, of course, that's a small proportion of the order book. Time frame, I guess, it's fairly similar, fairly similar.
Okay. And then the last question is just on the KFTC hearing. You said there were certain questions that you responded to. I was wondering if these are basically clarifications on the same topic, so whether any new topics were introduced at this stage, if you can say?
Well, obviously this report is confidential. But what I can say is that it's clearly in relation with the inquiry, which was initiated 4 years ago. So there's no -- nothing new in that sense.
Our next question is from Kevin Roger from Kepler Cheuvreux.
I hope you are doing well. I have 1 question related to the order that you announced today. So the 10 units that will be delivered between H2 2024 and 2025. Can you please explain me how you will recognize the revenue on those vessels that will be, let's say, built in 5 years. Usually, it was 2 years. So we had, let's say, usually, we built our revenue forecast on the 2 years metrics. So how should we think about the revenue recognition on those units? Should we say that we should expect earnings, let's say, in 2023, 2024? Or before? So...
Let me take that one then. I mean it's exactly the same as for any other LNG carrier. So basically, the revenues will accrue during the construction period. So if delivery is, say, in 2024, we will probably start accruing revenues from 2022, somewhere in 2022. So there's nothing very different. Yes.
Okay. But so we should, let's say, still consider 2 years construction time, something like that, so that...
Yes.
Okay. Yes. Okay.
Well, give or take a few months. But yes, nothing particularly different. Yes.
Okay. Yes. I'm just excited, I think. And the second question is mainly related to Areva H2Gen. So if you can, let's say, give us a bit more of information on this acquisition in terms of today what's the, let's say, financial around this company in terms of maybe top line or maybe orders, key opportunities. If you can basically provide us a bit more information on this company today?
Well, as for the former acquisitions we've made, we don't necessarily disclose this information. But to try to give you some view. I mean this is a fairly small acquisition in terms of value. We've indicated in our press release that it would not disturb the financial balance of the company.But -- and this is a fairly, I would say, a fairly new market when it comes to green hydrogen, specifically. So it's a company which like, I guess, other companies in the same field is moving from a stage of building prototypes, designing, et cetera, to more of a commercial position and moving from, I would say, prototypes to more industrial type of operation, basically.So it's -- you can look at it, although the company's been around for some years, you can still look at it as a bit of a start-up.
Okay. And the last question...
I was just going to say that there is 1 French competitor who has raised quite a lot of money on the market. But when you look at their actual numbers, you will understand what I have just said about Areva H2Gen.
Okay. Okay. I see this company. And the last question is related so basically to your top line, your guidance. So when I look at your quarterly performance over -- since the beginning of the year, you are close to EUR 100 million, EUR 102 million each quarter.And when you confirmed the guidance, basically, it seems that maybe you expect a kind of decline in Q4. Is there, let's say, any particular reason that maybe I'm missing for explaining maybe, let's say, a small decline in Q4 or something like that? Is there anything to underline on that side?
No, no, not necessarily. I mean our guidance, as you know, was published already some time ago. And the range of that guidance tries to take into account any potential -- could take into account the risk of certain delays.I mean, so far, we haven't really seen anything of that nature. But it's more a cautionary -- precaution than anything else. So we're not expecting anything significant -- a significant change, I would say, in the fourth quarter compared to the first 3 quarters.But it's all linked to really the pattern of construction of each of these ships, which can stack up, if you like, differently at different periods in time, but there's nothing specific under that.
Our next question is from the line of Charles Glasse from Waverton.
Just a follow-up on the Areva H2Gen acquisition. I watched on their website. It suggests that the company buys in its electrolyzers from a supplier. Could you just talk a little bit about what the IP Areva H2Gen actually has? Or is it simply -- is it an engineering company? Does it have patented IP?
Yes. Yes, indeed, Charles. Yes, it actually purchases components. I mean, for example, the membrane itself, which, by the way, doesn't have any resemblance to our LNG carrier membranes.But these membranes are manufactured and purchased by Areva. But they actually design the -- what we call -- they call the stacks and the actual electrolyzer. And they have indeed filed a number of patents for this technology. So they're not buying, if you like, a whole piece of equipment. They are outsourcing the various components.
Yes. And I understood from players in the market that this electrolyzing business is going to essentially be a market to do with scale. The bigger the players are going to be driving costs down by amortizing over very large developments.Could you -- I mean are you envisaging this is going to be a very significant area of capital consumption in years to come to ensure being ahead of the curve, so to speak, in this rapidly developing market?
Yes. It is true that the question of moving, as I was mentioning, actually moving from designing prototypes to a more industrial activity is really the key topic today. Of course, the market for green hydrogen today is very small. And when you look at -- yes, when you look at forecast, well, maybe people are optimistic, but they're showing very strong growth, and the key will be indeed to be able to ride that wave.But having said that, it is not necessarily the case that it will need extremely high capital investment. You're not looking at very large and complex manufacturing facilities necessarily. You're looking at scaling up in size but this may not require that much capital investment. I mean, clearly, this is a recent acquisition, and this is part, of course, of we're obviously looking at how we can contribute to making this company grow with the market.
[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Guillaume Delaby from Societe Generale.
First a question on Areva H2Gen. There is a French competitor but there is also a U.K. competitor, which is manufacturing electrolyzer with the PEM technology with very high market valuation.So my question is simply, what are the differences between ITM Power and GTT. And are there -- I understand the 2 are doing PEM, but do they have different processes? So this is my first question.And my second question is that you are mentioning synergies with this acquisition. Should I understand essentially, I would say, intellectual synergies, i.e., maybe you have some patents in your portfolio of patents, which could be used or something like that? Those are my 2 questions.
Okay. Well, on your last question, no, I wouldn't suggest that we have any specific patents, which relate to what Areva H2Gen is doing. But what I was rather saying is that being both technology companies, and having -- we do a lot of R&D around hydrogen also. So putting, I would say, all these brains together should normally allow us to develop this company and its products. So that's for your second question.As far as ITM, well, if you look at -- irrespective of technology, I mean if you look at -- as I was mentioning earlier following Kevin's question, if you look at the value, for example, of McPhy, which is the French competitor, and you look at again its underlying numbers, you see that clearly there is kind of a market value, which is anticipating very significant kind of growth in this market. And I guess it is probably -- I mean I don't know the details about ITM, to be honest, but I believe it can be a similar situation. So Areva H2Gen has been I guess, less visible so far, but we expect that will change very quickly.
Just a follow-up, if I may. My understanding is that ITM, it's the same technology. I would suggest it's more or less the same level of revenue, i.e., a few million euros or pounds. And clearly, not the same market value and even not the same kind of market value than the French competitor. That's it for me.
Our next question is from the line of Jean-Francois Granjon from ODDO BHF.
First question regarding the KFTC. Could you give us more details on the timing? Or when do you expect a decision? And when do you expect to communicate about over the decision of the KFTC, in the next few months, at the end of this year or next year? And can you quantify what you think about the extent of winning the KFTC, you are more comfortable or not, taking into account the first decision from the KFTC?My second question concern the Areva. Why do you want to present us your strategy in the hydrogen business?And the last question, I'll come back on the guidance. You are more comfortable with the high-end range of the guidance in terms of...
Francois, I just wonder why we give the ranges in our guidance. So I will not comment further on the guidance, but you draw your own conclusion from at least from the 3 quarters, which have been achieved.On -- sorry, what was your question on H2Gen, sorry? Yes, yes. Well, I mean, clearly, we -- from day 1 of this acquisition, so I'll say now it's week 1. We have clearly initiated a very comprehensive process to basically understand fully the company, its prospects, see where things can be improved, et cetera. So we will certainly be, in the coming months, I suppose, be in a position to be more specific about our strategy on hydrogen generally, and including Areva H2Gen. So it's still a bit early. Give us just a bit of time.On the KFTC, I can certainly not comment on the discussions with the KFTC because all this is strictly confidential until such time as the KFTC will decide to itself to communicate. And the timing of which, of course, is fully under their control. So the only thing I can say at this stage is that as soon as the KFTC publishes something, of course, we will communicate immediately.
We have no further questions on the telephones, but we have had one from the web from the line of Nicolas Royot from Portzamparc.Could you tell us why you bought Areva H2Gen and if there are synergies with your traditional businesses? And if possible, some financial elements, EUR 5 million to EUR 10 million annual sales?
Well, Nicolas, I guess I have more or less answered these questions, which were already asked by some -- not being flippant, of course, but which have already been asked by other participants in the call. I mean, clearly, you know that GTT is developing its strategy in terms of solutions for energy efficiency. And you've seen our new baseline, which is technology for a sustainable world. You've seen our reason on that. And clearly, this acquisition falls clearly within this strategy just to add to the other questions, which I think I have covered already.
We have had another question come through on the telephone lines, sir. It comes from the line of John Buckland from Waverton.
I'm a little bit nervous that I -- you might answer this question because I was in the middle of listening to you on the webcast, and took it on the telephone. But anyway, when you talked about GTT is doing a lot of R&D in the area of hydrogen in response to a question, it just prompted my thought that you've not really said a lot about the transportation storage of hydrogen going forward. And is that something that you're going to address soon from a technology standpoint? And actually, then there will be a greater link between GTT, what it does now, Areva and the future?
Yes. I mean -- clearly, I mean, hydrogen is the topic, I guess, of the day. Well, I actually mentioned we do some R&D around hydrogen. And of course, some of that -- and a lot of that is dedicated to potential solutions for transportation and -- or storage of hydrogen.Clearly, these solutions are not going to emerge in the very near future. There's a lot of technical and, I would say, constraints linked simply to the laws of physics when you think about hydrogen. But clearly, we are working on these subject. And so yes, I mean it's part of the same subject, but this is much longer term than what we could see in the development of the production of green hydrogen, which is the topic for Areva H2Gen. So it's a kind of diversification for us also.
Cool. But it's -- I mean hydrogen doesn't have to be stored as a liquid hydrogen but can be stored in other chemicals -- ammonia, for example. I mean are you -- is there a place for GTT to get into, if it's not already in ammonia transportation, for example?
Yes. Yes, indeed, of course, I didn't mention ammonia. We were more on the subject of hydrogen. But yes, we are also working on ammonia transportation, storage. The situation for ammonia is a bit different than it is for hydrogen when we're talking of technical constraints or physical constraints. The liquefaction point for ammonia is, in fact, quite high. In a sense, it's a negative, it's quite high, it's minus 33 degrees. So much higher than, say, LNG, which is minus 160. Let alone hydrogen, which is minus 250. So clearly, the technical aspects when we're talking of ammonia are maybe less complex to address.On the other hand, ammonia has some disadvantages, clearly, in terms of its toxicity and corrosive nature so that needs to be -- need to be worked on. But we are clearly -- we are not limiting our efforts to just 1 kind of gas. We are looking at hydrogen. We're looking at ammonia and potentially, other solutions if anything else emerges.
We have another question from the web from Jens Hillers from H&P Capital Advisors who would like to know if you can elaborate on the business pipeline in LNG as a fuel.
Yes. I certainly can. We actually discussed that in some more detail at our -- in our half year presentation. And of course, you may wish to refer to that. But I mean, clearly, the subject for LNG as a fuel is that it has all the advantages from an environmental perspective in terms of emissions, whether it's sulfur, NOx, particulates. But even in as far as CO2 is concerned, although as a fossil energy it does produce some CO2, but 25% less than heavy fuel. So as of today, as we speak, we mentioned ammonia, we've mentioned hydrogen, et cetera. It seems to be the only alternative which will be in a position to tick most of the boxes in terms of environmental regulations.So the question for us is not so much a question of if LNG as a fuel will emerge as a solution. It's more a question of when. And the situation, of course, we've had with the pandemic has not helped a lot, and the shipping industry itself has been in a fairly, I would say, depressed state. For example, in 2020, we're expecting a number of orders for new merchant ships, whichever categories have something just under 600 ships, whereas 10 years ago, it was 4,000. So clearly, the emergence of LNG as a fuel will also depend on the volume of new ships being constructed.You should also bear in mind that it's a more competitive market than our core business. And there are different segments in this market and different types of technologies. Somebody earlier on, it was I think Jean-Luc mentioned, Type-C, for example, which is an alternative to the membrane technology, but -- which addresses a slightly different segment, a segment of the smaller ships with smaller tanks, whereas membrane technologies are more suitable for larger tanks. But still, you have an overlap, of course, between when you're around the 5,000 cubic meter tanks.So it's difficult, of course, at this stage to make precise forecast of how orders could develop in this market for obvious reasons. But we remain quite convinced that this market will take off in the near future. Actually, perhaps there's 1 element I can point out. Also I mentioned earlier on that there was this delivery of the first CMA CGM ultra-large container vessel earlier a few weeks ago, I guess. So that was delivered. So it would also be kind of a showcase for LNG fuel-operated large ships. So that could also help some ship owners to make the decision to adopt LNG as a fuel.
We have another question from the phone lines from Jan Richard from Berenberg.
One follow-up question on hydrogen. I've seen that Hyundai has announced fairly recently they received an equivalent principle for a quite large liquefied hybrid interior, which is about, I think, 20,000 cubic meters. So I'd just like to know from your point of view, how do you see this read from Hyundai? Do you see this as potentially commercially viable over the very near term? And how do you position yourself versus for this?
Yes. Well, yes, of course, I would say we -- it seems to be -- again, I think we're talking more something like a prototype, I would say. I mean the question of liquefying hydrogen, of course, is quite complex and of keeping it cold also. So I guess this is -- I mean this is part of the subject, of course, we are looking at. I would tend to think that this is more kind of -- I was going to say a showcase rather than something which will develop quite strongly in the near future.
And there are no further questions at this time. I'll hand back to yourself, Marc, for closing comments.
Thank you. Well, I will first thank you for your interest and your questions on our quarterly statement. I guess there's a lot going on, so we will certainly keep you informed of how business progresses over time and on the various subjects we've discussed anyway.Well now, thank you very much, and take care, everybody, in this not so easy context.
Thank you very much, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the call for today. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.