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Vinci SA
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Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the VINCI conference call. I now hand over to Gregoire Thibault. Sir, please go ahead.
Good evening, and thank you, Laura. Thanks, everybody, to attend this conf call. I am with my colleagues, Alexandra Boutelier and Sébastien Pezron from the Investor Relation team. We are pleased to share with you our 9-month '18 activity main figures. We'll try to be brief as we know that it's a very busy day for all of you with a lot of publication and conf call. We hope you had time to read our press release. If not, what are the key takeaways of the first 9 months? Total 9 month '18 revenues are up 7.7% to EUR 31.4 billion, plus 3.3% on a like-for-like basis. The Q3 posted an acceleration with sales up 9.5% and plus 4.3% like-for-like. France accounting for 57% of the total 9-month activity is up 4.8%; International, 43% of the total activity is up 12% and 2.3% like-for-like. Activity overall was sustained by external growth. VINCI has been dynamic in M&A over the last month. On the other hand, the currency impact was negative by 2.6% due to the differentiation of many currencies against euro and notably the dollar -- U.S. dollar, Canadian, Australian and Kiwi dollars -- the British pound and the Swiss franc. Let's now dive into the main division. Let's start by VINCI Concessions. Sales up 5.6% at the end of September; VINCI Airports, plus 12.3%. You already received our traffic figures for the Airports, still very dynamic. Excluding Japan, impacted by the typhoon in September, traffic was up 6% in Q3 and 8% in 9 months. In addition, note that the period benefited from the integration of new airports Salvador in Brazil since January and the recently acquired portfolio of airports worldwide since the end of August. VINCI Autoroutes, plus 3.6%. Traffic remained robust. In Q3, traffic was up 1.4% of which light vehicle, plus 1.3%; and trucks plus 2.7%. At the end of September, traffic was up 1.9%, of which cars, plus 1.7%; and trucks, plus 3.3%. This traffic trend is in line with our guidance. For Contracting, sales up 8.4% and 3.1% like-for-like at the end of September. Q3 was strong as well, plus 11%, of which, plus 5% like-for-like. In more detail by division. VINCI Energies, plus 17% to almost EUR 9 billion thanks to M&A, as you know. As a reminder, the main acquisition of VINCI Energies over the last 12 months were Wah Loon in Singapore integrated since April '18; PrimeLine in the U.S., integrated since March; EITECH in Sweden, since January; Infratek and Horlemann in Germany since the very end of 2017. External growth in this but not only, the organic growth was high at plus 4%, quite homogeneous between France and international where the trend was very well oriented in Q3, plus 8% of organic growth abroad. Eurovia. Activity of EUR 6.5 billion up 10% and plus 8% like-for-like. Q3 posted a dynamic 15% growth. France was well oriented in the period, and so were Germany, U.K., Eastern Europe, Canada and Chile. VINCI Construction, always more difficult to summarize. EUR 10 billion of sales, growth of 1% at the end of September, of which plus 3% in France and minus 1% abroad. Solid trend in France, around Paris notably. Solid as well in Central Europe and Australia, but sales decreased in Africa, in the U.K., and in oil and gas markets. Finally, regarding the order intake, they are up 5% at the end of September after a plus 3% in H1, so a good trend in Q3. Per division, the 9 months' order intake have the following trend: Plus 18% for VINCI Energies; plus 10% for Eurovia; minus 6% for VINCI Construction due to high comps with some contracts on Grand Paris won last year. In France, 9 months of intake were down 8%, and international order intake were up 21%. At the end of September, our backlog is up 7% year-on-year at almost EUR 33 billion.In conclusion, Q3 and 9 months' revenue trends were positive. The group is on track. Our business model is strong. Thus, we are very [ serene ] for the rest of the year and confirm our guidance. As a reminder, in a nutshell, our guidance is for the full year 2018, VINCI expects to see growth in revenue, operating income and net income. I would like to thank you, and we are now ready to take your questions.
[Operator Instructions] We have a first question from Vittorio Carelli of Santander.
I have 3 question on my side, this first one is related to the other concession. If you can explain what happened during the third quarter because I was aware that we had some [ very material ] issue regarding the consolidation of new assets, but at the same time, I'm afraid there have been who are not reflecting exactly the business asset inside the trading account. And if you can explain what happened there. So a second question is regarding the guidance in construction. Do you think that we still have, I would say, growth in the fourth quarter for construction, so continue the guidance for the full year? Or we are -- at least can adapt -- probably constructed top line could not be growing as you expect and you could be international business move. And the last question is related to ANA concession, if you can comment about the recent press news about the possible expansion and [ exchange offer the month before and then before ] CapEx. Nothing more than that.
Thank you, Vittorio. We'll come back to you in 5 seconds. So I'm back. So regarding the other concession. That's small amounts, that's true, but in a way that's a good question. In Q3 '18 versus Q3 '17, this other concession save were slightly down. That's mainly due to our stadium activity because, in Q3 '17 was, let's say, exceptionally high with a lot of events organized in Stade de France, close to Paris, and in Olympic Park in London. So Q3 '17 was very high, and that's why you can see that decreasing. So that's the main reason that's on stadium. Your second question was...
I'm sorry, it is not related to possible underperformance in traffic on -- of LAMSAC?
No, no. Also if your question. You hide the question in another one. That's very smart. So for LAMSAC, Vittorio, as we said in the press release, the traffic is very strong. It's no impact. You remember, we had planned the second section of LAMSAC in June, so we are typically in the ramp-up phase, and traffic is very strong and above what we expected. So it confirms the good outlook we have for this asset. So no, no. It's not due to -- that's what we wrote in the press release. Traffic is up. So that's the stadium. That's the reason. Your second question on contracting, no, we don't change a single word to our guidance. We are confident. We are [ serene ] as we told you. Activity is strong at the end of the 9 months. It has been good and very good in Q3. No, no, we are -- we've signed, so no, no, of course, we don't change our guidance and therefore activity, therefore, profitability. No, no, we stick to our guidance. And finally, your third question was on ANA. You're right. There were some press articles a couple of weeks ago or 3 weeks ago. We don't comment these kind of newspapers, the journalist can write whatever they want. What I can tell you is that the negotiation on the new airport in Lisbon are still ongoing. An agreement should be found soon, maybe by year-end. But we cannot tell you more than that because, by definition, that's a negotiation. So we will keep you informed once we will have more news, that's ongoing.
The next question is from Elodie Rall of JPMorgan.
Just 3 questions as well on my side, if I may. First of all, on traffic, I'm told in Q3, your reported traffic levels or growth is more or less in line with what ATR reported last night. They did mention that there was a calendar impact, which I think was around 1% due to the fact that 1 nonworking day became a working day in Q3 versus last year. Can you confirm that it is the same for VINCI Autoroutes or motorways? That's my first question. Second, just a question on net debt. It's up EUR 1.5 billion year-on-year. I know you mentioned all the acquisitions that you've made recently. I just wanted to make sure what is included in that net debt level, for instance, what's not included. In particular, is the Eurovia's acquisition in the U.S. included in it? And just my third question quickly. How much was Airports Worldwide contribution to Q3 revenues, please?
Thank you, Elodie. So regarding the traffic for Q3, what can I tell. The growth we posted is quite clean, I would say. That's what we could call an underlying growth. We had some plus and some minus over the 9-month period. But all in all, that's neutral. And regarding the calendar effects over the 9 months, some were positive, some were negative. Again, all in all, it's neutral. And regarding Q3, we didn't have, let's say, some significant calendar effects to [ isolate ], let's say. The second question. The net debt, so I told quite negative policy in terms of M&A over the last months. It does not include laying plants and paving you were referring to. It includes Airports Worldwide which has been closed at the end of August, okay? But in the net debt, there is not yet laying plants and paving which has not been closed yet. And finally, speaking about AWW. That's your last question. The contribution, let's say, is quite small at this stage. It's only for 1 month. [ That's 9 already ]. So it has already been integrated since the end of August, so the contribution was only for September, and it was less than EUR 10 million.
The next question is from Nabil Ahmed of Barclays.
I actually got 2. First one is on the order intake in the third quarter. If you could give back the numbers by division. And if you have that on a like-for-like basis, or excluding the acquisition, I'd be interested to hear how the intake has performed during the third quarter. Second question, I guess, focusing on the divisions that have specifically changed in terms of like-for-like growth, and it looks like it's primarily year-over-year and if you look, it's primarily in France where the like-for-like growth has accelerated in the third quarter. Are you seeing pricing components here? I mean, my question, I guess, is to what degree this is volume? This is the market that has been good for you guys if you're executing your backlog or to what degree this is related to an increased pricing on the materials side of things?
The order intake in Q3, so you guys can make the calculation of plus 5 at the end of September, plus 3 at the end of H1, end of June. So it means that in Q3, the order intake in total were up double digit like close 10%, and you can consider that half of that was some, let's say, M&A kind of growth impact. Your second question, that's a good analogy. Yes, lots of strong organic growth in Eurovia. That's due to, let's say, a good market, speaking about France, no, and there is a pricing effect, you're right, in this increase. But we don't quantify, we don't break down. But the market is very good, and we are still in a positive electoral cycle ahead of the municipal election in spring 2020. So the trend is good. It should remain good. But in this growth, yes, there is a price effect, but sorry, we don't...
But my question is could the price effect be significant enough to really explain the change in the...
No, no. Sorry, no, no. If this was your question, no, no. The market is very, let's say, well oriented, very well oriented. So of course I'm not going to deny there is a price effect but not to explain, let's say, such a swing, and that's mainly due to the good market trend.
The next question is from Mehdi Boudokhane of Raymond James.
I have 2 questions, 1 follow-up on AWW. Do we have an idea in terms of revenues, I mean, on a 12-month basis? And secondly, on VINCI Construction, could we have more color on the performance which actually remains weak in terms of organic growth. Is that linked to Africa?
Mehdi, thanks for your questions. So the first one, regarding Airports Worldwide. What I said to Elodie is that, more or less, on 1 month you have a contribution of sales below EUR 10 million. So you can multiply by 12 and maybe -- again, it's quite marginal in terms of contribution, but it gives you an idea in a full year -- or on a full year basis. Regarding your second point, you're right, the answer was in your question. VINCI Construction and Africa the sales was still down as well on the oil and gas markets, so that fits.
The next question is from Greg Kuglitsch of UBS.
So let's figure out the net debt side of things obviously, you're saying EUR 16 billion. Obviously, that's hard for us to know exactly what's going on with all the components, but kind of excluding acquisitions and if you look over the last few years and that's, I guess, where it becomes a little bit tricky for us because of the timing of M&A and so on. What would you say is kind of the normal seasonal cash flow in the fourth quarter? Is it kind of EUR 1 billion or something like that? And then you didn't mention Belgrade in the acquisition because, obviously, you mentioned [ lane ] and clearly that's pending U.S. antitrust approval, but what's happening with regards to Belgrade? And then a question on kind of just your guidance. I was just looking very briefly on your website and looking at the consensus recurring net income, and I think it kind of implies hardly any profit growth in H2 net income. One, just keep it simple. Obviously, you've just done pretty solid sales growth in the third quarter. You're not talking about any margin pressure. I want to understand what do you think that that's too conservative?
Thank you, Gregor. So regarding your question on cash flow and on the working cap valuation, you know that in our activity that's always very difficult to predict. That's at the very end of the year, that you have some cash inflow through that really -- and that's through the end of December that you have more visibility on your working cap. But to give you more color of the new way, the trend of working cap at the end of September was around the same that the trend you saw at the end of June '18 versus June '17. But anyway over the period our free cash flow in the 9 months '18 was slightly above EUR 1 billion. It was slightly lower than EUR 1 billion last year in the same period. So in other words, operating average more than compensated this working cap [ gen ]. And below that, you have some financial investments. But no, there is nothing, let's say, unusual. You already spoke quite a lot about the working cap trend in H1. And you remember on that, the deterioration of the working cap in H1 '18 was due to the pickup of activity for Eurovia and VINCI Energies. So at the end of the day, that's a positive thing now for the business. It was due as well to some investment for VINCI Immobilier with acquisition of [ field ] and less advanced payment for VINCI Construction and more stringent rule in terms of delay of paying our subcontractors. So no, there is nothing, let's say, scary. And second question was on Belgrade. We still wait for the closing and still by year-end. And to conservative in the guidance, your third and last question, Gregor. No, we maintain our guidance. We are not going to split and to adjust our guidance, let's say, with every quarter or every semester. So that's repeated.
Can you maybe just help us in aggregate, how much were the M&A/financial investments in the third quarter in terms of spend? Then we can calculate ourself.
In the 9 months, the M&A envelope was EUR 1.7 billion, slightly below that. And we communicated in H1 for the M&A envelope. So you have the Q3. For 9 months, M&A...
The next question is from Stephanie D'Ath of RBC.
So first is on Bouygues which recently downgraded their guidance because of construction. I was wondering whether you were seeing any trends in the environment back then from that perspective. My second question is regarding the North Carolina contracts you just announced and whether there would be a concession opportunity down the line? And then finally, on ADP, the recent regulatory developments. Do you feel the likelihood of the privatization is increasing or decreasing?
Just one question, Stephanie, hello. It's noted, we didn't hear you. Just your second question was about Eurovia in North Carolina. What was exactly the question?
Announced that Eurovia winning 2 contracts to develop the major corridors in North Carolina. I was wondering if maybe it is done in a few years' time, this could become potential managed lane concessions? Or if was just the contracts that stayed and they were not planning to tender the concession?
No, no. It's just a contract here, as far as I know. The management of the concession will be done by the public authority, by the DOT, the Division of Transport in North Carolina. So that's -- there is no, let's say, concession opportunity at the end of the construction. Regarding your first question. So with the profit warning for Bouygues construction and Colas. If we start by Colas and the read across for Eurovia, yes, that's your question. The year has been difficult for our rail works activities, with our subsidiary called ETF, and it's partly due to the French national railway company strike, which took place from April to July '18. They affected this subsidiary's activity and profitability and created some problem in terms of transportation aggregates. However, the good financial health of Eurovia of their business allowed us to absorb this nonrecurring issue. As a consequence, revenue guidance, which is a rise in revenue and in EBIT margin, remained fully valid. Regarding Bouygues construction and the programs and data center and biomass plants. What can I say? The biomass plants are very complex projects, on a technical point of view, and that's very demanding in terms of delays. And neither VINCI Construction nor VINCI Energies never built any biomass plants. VINCI Energies can be active in some biomass plants in Germany, for example, but as a subcontractor, which is totally different. VINCI Construction built in the past 2 ways to energy plant. But ways to energy plants and biomass plant in terms of complexity and a technical point of view, really, it's not the same. But these 2 projects have been very well. And more generally because the question is a way maybe in the U.K., and where these problems occurred, VINCI Energies is not very exposed to the U.K. Actually, the U.K. accounts for less than 1% of VINCI Energies' sales. And our policy in the U.K., you know that by heart, is to be very, very, very selective and to be very opportunistic. And regarding the data centers, VINCI Energies does some data centers [ into the approvals ] I believe, with Wah Loon, the company we acquired last April, I told you about in the introduction, and that's a company specialized in this business. And all in all, with the projects of Wah Loon, we haven't been confronted with major difficulties in this particular segment, and we hope and we think we will continue to do so. Other question on -- it was on ADP, right, your fourth question, Stephanie?
Yes, that's right.
And what do you want to know on ADP?
Just maybe comment on the recent developments and how you see things...
Okay, yes. So your recent development indeed on the alone the Assemblée Nationale, the National Assembly, voted in favor of some articles of the PACTE Loi -- Loi PACTE and notably allowing the ADP privatization. It was at the beginning of October. So that's a good [ step read ]. That's now into the hands of the SNCF and to be adopted by -- has to be approved by both chambers under the French Parliament, the National Assembly and the Senate. And we think such an approval for the Loi PACTE, for the PACTE Loi, could occur, I don't know, somewhere around in early 2019. But at this stage, we don't know much more than that. What can we tell, what would be the main terms and condition of the privatization, we can only express, let's say, an interest in principle because we don't know yet the rules of the game.
And so when do you think the government would start discussing the case, the charges, the trial once it's privatized? What do you see?
We don't know. I don't know, Stephanie. I have no idea, really.
The next question is from Eric Lemarié of Bryan Garnier.
Gregoire, just 2 questions on my side. The first one, I'm just curious. Could you maybe share with us the revenues generated by ETF, you know the subsidiaries of Colas on an annual -- of Eurovia, sorry, maybe the revenues on an annual basis? And second question, regarding VINCI Airport, I understand that as you come into the press, VINCI Airports has been criticized in Japan following the typhoon incident. Could you confirm that? And is there any political risks there because of that?
Thank you, Eric. So regarding ETF, the sales in 2017 are above -- slightly above EUR 400 million. And for VINCI Airports and the typhoon, which was in the timing in early September, we take that from noise -- political noise, and we don't comment. We work hard to put the situation on track. All the stakeholders really [ have done -- ] did a great job. And finally, the Kansai Airport could reopen quite quickly, and we are proud of that. And now the traffic is back and within cruising speed, so that's -- at that moment we faced under the recent criticism, really, we don't comment. It's only some noise.
You didn't have to invest more to -- in order to better protect the assets in the future against this type of weather impact? No?
Maybe, that it's not, let's say, a short-term thoughts, we think.
The next question is from Nicolas Mora of Morgan Stanley.
Just a couple of questions, one on VINCI Energies. I know that the consolidations was tough in the third quarter, and you had a -- quite a blowout quarter. Is there anything specifically you want to highlight there just to, basically to know whether or not we need to extrapolate a bit more growth into Q4 and early next year? Basically the same for France. And second one, just coming back a bit on Bouygues, and especially at Colas, can you confirm you're not into -- you're not a party into of these medium, long-term contracts within SNCF where the conditions seem to be particularly harsh so that we can assess a little bit the impact whether it's only going to be basically limited to the strikes in Q2 or whether basically the negative effect from extension of contracts could drag on into '19 or '20?
So yes, there is a level of activity for VINCI Energies. So in France, I mean, you saw in terms of organic growth, you saw the trend was quite linear on Q1s and Q2s and Q3. That's in general the case in France. It's not the case out of France for VINCI Energies abroad. Why is that? Because we operate in 52 different countries and hundreds of business units. So sometimes you have some business units up. Sometimes they're down. But this quarter, it happens from time to time, all the planets were aligned abroad, let's say. So that's why there was a very good and exceptional, let's say, organic growth. Of course, it's probably more, let's say, reasonable and realistic not to extrapolate too much. Again, all the planets were aligned this quarter maybe it will not be the case, who knows. So don't -- be more cautious. And the second question was on...
For Colas, the contract in SNCF.
Okay. Yes, what we told is that we had such an activity with SNCF. The strike penalized the activity and the profitability. But at the end of the day, the good, let's say, trends of the other business of Eurovia compensated on that, so these extra costs, and so it doesn't change a single world to our guidance.
Okay. And if I can, just the last one on the net debt. I mean, what more is it going to take for consensus to finally grasp the fact that, [ SNCF ] is going to be much higher than where consensus stands at around EUR 13 billion? And then how much more effort do you need to put into it to reach that consensus expectations?
Yes, that's a very good point, Nicolas. Thank you very much. Thank you to warn us. I didn't have to do that. So that's -- no, no, that's a very good point. Yes, net debt, logically, when you see that at the end of September, yes, net debt should increase by year-end. So thank you to have raised this good point.
You know, consensus is very tight for the end of the year. There's only one point which sticks out completely. That's net debt, so I was just wondering.
But as you know, sometimes a part of the consensus maybe is a bit lagging behind in terms of integration of M&A or M&A pace and that's why that...
The next question is from Olivia Peters of Macquarie.
I just have a couple questions, please. Firstly, I'm quite surprised that you're saying that oil and gas activity hasn't picked up. It seems that it has for some of your peers, and I'm wondering if that is due to where you're located geographically or if I can have a reason to that. Secondly, on firstly Construction, I understand that you're being selected, but are you seeing any improvement in the pricing environment in France, you've alluded to things like building material prices, and I'm wondering if construction price -- the construction contract pricing is going more favorably. And just going back to the consensus, and sorry to labor the point. Basically, I agree with Gregoire that there is pretty much no growth factored into the consensus in the second half. Is that something that you would expect? Or something that, given the results this evening, you believe will change? And is the consensus factoring in the M&A that you've been doing or not? If you could clarify that, that would be very helpful.
Thank you. We are going to answer you in one minute, Olivia. Yes, I will start by the end. So point number three. So again, no, the guidance is on an annual basis, so we don't comment on especially that sales dedicated, let's say to -- mostly dedicated to activity, primarily speaking. So the question on VINCI Construction, the pricing environment in France, that's quite difficult to comment, and there are so many markets. It depends on the market. It can be -- depend on some projects and the regions, and some -- so no comments. Sorry about that. And oil and gas, you're probably right, maybe compared to some of our competitors, that's maybe the pure mix which makes the difference.
So it's got nothing to do with where you're located?
Yes, it depends on the countries where we are. It depends on a specific situation.
And just on the third question. And I'm not asking you to change your guidance. Just -- is consensus factoring-in the majority of the M&A that you've done this year or not in [ MOV ]?
It was -- it's a follow up to the question of Nicolas. Probably the financial investments we could -- we have done and we could make this year. I'm not yet in the second [ consensus ].
The last question is from Marcin Wojtal of Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Greg, so I have a very quick one on the motorway stimulus plan, the EUR 385 million of CapEx that you mentioned in the release. So can you remind us the amount of tariff increases that you will be getting from 2019 to 2021 per annum? And also, in terms of the investment, over how many years will you be deploying that CapEx that is mentioned?
So Marcin, thank you for your question. So I'm in mind that we speak about what we could call the small motorways in this plan, and which have been decided by the former President, François Hollande in July '16. Your Cofiroute decree has been published at the end of August. But the approvals on ASF and Escota are still pending. We are waiting for the final greenlight of the Council of State, Conseil d'Etat, in French. And that's probably in the coming weeks. So -- but all in all, what can I tell you? In total VINCI Autoroutes, we have some local authorities who will invest an additional EUR 385 million, 3-8-5, in the coming years, it will be probably spread, I don't know in 3, 4, 5 years. And this CapEx, that's through, will be remunerated by an additional tariff increase between 2019 and 2021. So for instance, Escota, since we are still waiting for the final authorization of Conseil d'Etat, I will not comment. But for Cofiroute, that -- that's fine, that's okay. So CapEx are around EUR 116 million. And the tariff increase will be slightly below 0.2%. Exactly 0.195%, per year, between 2019 and 2021. The [ lead commissioner, Jean-Marc Sauvé, de la Republique ].
If I can have a follow-up. So of the EUR 385 million of total CapEx, how much actually will be funded by VINCI and how much is the subsidy from municipalities?
We don't -- no, I don't want to answer the question because I don't have the exact information, to be frank, so I prefer not to answer.
Thank you. We have no further questions this evening.
Okay, so if it's the end, thank you, everybody, for your attention. The Investor Relations team remains throughout the day should you have more questions feel free to call us whenever you want and we always try to answer but not in the beck and call, of course, that's -- we do our best. And finally, we look forward to welcome you -- forward to welcoming you, the 20 and the 21st of November in Marseilles for Capital Markets Day Eurovia. Have a great evening. Bye-bye, everybody.
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call's been concluded. You may now disconnect.