Ryanair Holdings PLC
OTC:RYAOF
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one RYAOF stock under the Base Case scenario is 31.4 USD. Compared to the current market price of 14 USD, Ryanair Holdings PLC is Undervalued by 55%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Ryanair Holdings PLC
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Fundamental Analysis
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Ryanair Holdings PLC is a leading low-cost airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, that has revolutionized the way people travel across Europe. Founded in 1984, Ryanair has built its brand on the promise of affordability and efficiency, operating a fleet of over 450 aircraft and serving more than 200 destinations in 40 countries. The airline's business model focuses on the no-frills concept, providing travelers with an attractive option that strips away unnecessary services to deliver low base fares. This strategy, combined with a relentless pursuit of operational efficiency and a commitment to transparency in pricing, has solidified Ryanair’s position as one of the largest and most profit...
Ryanair Holdings PLC is a leading low-cost airline headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, that has revolutionized the way people travel across Europe. Founded in 1984, Ryanair has built its brand on the promise of affordability and efficiency, operating a fleet of over 450 aircraft and serving more than 200 destinations in 40 countries. The airline's business model focuses on the no-frills concept, providing travelers with an attractive option that strips away unnecessary services to deliver low base fares. This strategy, combined with a relentless pursuit of operational efficiency and a commitment to transparency in pricing, has solidified Ryanair’s position as one of the largest and most profitable airlines in Europe, appealing to both leisure and business travelers.
For investors, Ryanair represents a compelling opportunity in the airline industry, particularly as global travel demand rebounds post-pandemic. The company’s strong financial performance, characterized by robust revenue growth and a disciplined approach to cost management, positions it favorably against competitors. Ryanair’s strategic initiatives, such as expanding its route network and improving customer service, aim to enhance profitability while retaining market share. Additionally, the company’s commitment to sustainability, including investments in new, fuel-efficient aircraft, is increasingly important to a value-driven, socially-conscious investor base. As Ryanair navigates the evolving travel landscape, its focus on low-cost operations and operational excellence continues to promise a bright future for shareholders looking to capitalize on the post-COVID travel surge.
Ryanair Holdings PLC operates primarily in the low-cost airline sector and has several core business segments that contribute to its overall operations. These segments include:
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Passenger Transport:
- This is the primary segment where Ryanair generates the bulk of its revenue. The airline operates a fleet of Boeing 737 aircraft to provide budget-friendly air travel across Europe and some locations in North Africa. Ryanair emphasizes low fares while maintaining high seat occupancy rates.
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Ancillary Revenue:
- Ancillary services are a significant source of profit for Ryanair. This includes revenue from:
- Baggage fees
- Seat selection fees
- Priority boarding
- In-flight sales (food, beverages, and merchandise)
- Car rentals and hotel bookings through partnerships
- Advertising and sponsorship on the airline's website and within the aircraft
- Ancillary services are a significant source of profit for Ryanair. This includes revenue from:
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Holiday and Travel Services:
- Ryanair has expanded into the travel package market through its Ryanair Holidays service, which offers customers flight and accommodation packages. This segment aims to capture more of the traveler's spending beyond just air travel.
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Cargo and Freight Services:
- Although not a primary focus, Ryanair also engages in cargo services that transport goods and freight, leveraging its existing flight schedules.
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Charter and Group Travel:
- Ryanair offers charter services for groups and organizations, catering to specific travel needs, such as sports teams or corporate events.
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Online Services and Marketing:
- Enhancements in digital platforms for booking and customer interaction contribute to the overall customer experience and facilitate ancillary revenue streams. Ryanair invests in online marketing and its website to optimize ticket sales.
These core segments work together to create Ryanair's business model, which is centered around low-cost travel while maximizing revenue through ancillary services. The company’s strategic focus on cost control, efficient operations, and customer service allows it to maintain a competitive edge in the budget airline market.
Ryanair Holdings PLC, as one of Europe’s leading low-cost carriers, has several unique competitive advantages that differentiate it from its rivals:
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Cost Structure: Ryanair is known for its ultra-low-cost model. The airline maintains a rigorous cost-control approach, which includes a single aircraft type (Boeing 737) allowing for savings in maintenance, training, and parts procurement.
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Point-to-Point Route Model: Unlike traditional carriers that often use a hub-and-spoke system, Ryanair primarily operates a point-to-point route model. This allows for faster turnaround times and the ability to serve secondary airports with lower fees, improving operational efficiency.
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Ancillary Revenue Streams: Ryanair has perfected the art of generating revenue from ancillary services. It earns significant income from fees for services such as priority boarding, in-flight sales, checked baggage, and seat selection, which enhances overall profitability without raising ticket prices.
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High Load Factors: Ryanair targets high load factors (the percentage of available seating capacity that is filled with passengers). The airline's ability to fill a large number of seats reduces unit costs and increases revenue per flight.
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Strong Brand Messaging: Ryanair has a clear and consistent brand image as a low-cost airline, which appeals to price-sensitive travelers. Its straightforward approach helps in maintaining customer expectations and loyalty.
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Fleet Efficiency: A homogeneous fleet (mostly Boeing 737s) allows Ryanair to optimize training for pilots and crew, minimize maintenance complexity, and benefit from economies of scale in fuel purchasing and spare parts.
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Aggressive Pricing Strategies: Ryanair often employs aggressive pricing tactics, such as promotional fares and dynamic pricing models, which can attract a large volume of passengers, especially during off-peak travel periods.
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Operational Efficiency: The airline has developed efficient operational processes, including quick turnaround times, which allows Ryanair to maximize the number of flights and utilize its aircraft more effectively than some competitors.
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Pioneering Digital Initiatives: Ryanair has embraced technology to improve customer experience and operational efficiency, including a user-friendly app for bookings, check-in, and customer service.
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Market Penetration and Expansion: Ryanair's established brand presence and strategic adjustments to routes based on market demand enhance its competitive position in various regions, allowing it to capture market share effectively.
Overall, Ryanair's combination of a low-cost business model, efficient operations, and innovative revenue generation strategies gives it a significant competitive advantage over traditional airlines and other low-cost carriers in Europe.
Ryanair Holdings PLC, as a major player in the low-cost airline sector, faces several risks and challenges in the near future. Here are some of the key areas to consider:
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Economic Uncertainty: Economic conditions influence consumer spending and travel demand. Factors such as inflation, recession, or geopolitical instability can lead to reduced discretionary spending on travel.
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Fuel Price Volatility: Fluctuations in fuel prices significantly impact operating costs. Rising oil prices can squeeze profit margins if they cannot be passed on to consumers through fare increases.
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Regulatory Changes: Changes in regulations, especially in the European Union, concerning aviation safety, environmental standards, and labor rights may increase operational costs or impose restrictions that could affect profitability.
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Competition: The low-cost airline market is highly competitive. Ryanair faces challenges from established airline competitors and new market entrants, which could pressurize pricing strategies.
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Environmental Concerns: The aviation industry is under scrutiny for its carbon footprint. Growing environmental awareness could lead to higher costs related to sustainability initiatives or regulations aimed at reducing emissions.
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Labor Relations: Strikes or labor unrest among pilots and other staff could disrupt operations and result in financial losses, affecting customer trust and satisfaction.
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Health Crises: The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted the airline industry. Future health crises or outbreaks can lead to reduced travel demand and operational disruptions.
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Technological Changes: Rapid advancements in technology present both opportunities and challenges. Ryanair must invest in new technologies to enhance efficiency and customer experience while keeping costs in check.
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Customer Demand Shifts: Changes in consumer preferences, such as increasing demand for travel flexibility or premium services, require Ryanair to adapt its business model, which could involve additional costs.
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Geopolitical Risks: Events such as Brexit, international trade tensions, and conflicts between nations could disrupt Ryanair's routes and operations, particularly in Europe.
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Debt Levels: High levels of debt can constrain financial flexibility and limit the company’s ability to invest in growth or weather economic downturns.
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Operational Efficiency: Maintaining operational efficiency is vital for a low-cost carrier. Disruptions—whether from weather, technical issues, or other factors—can lead to increased costs and impact profitability.
Addressing these challenges will require strategic foresight and proactive management to navigate the complexities of the aviation landscape successfully.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Ryanair Holdings PLC
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Ryanair Holdings PLC
Current Assets | 5.8B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 4.1B |
Receivables | 76.4m |
Other Current Assets | 1.6B |
Non-Current Assets | 11.3B |
PP&E | 11B |
Intangibles | 146.4m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 188.6m |
Current Liabilities | 6.4B |
Accounts Payable | 792.2m |
Accrued Liabilities | 5.2B |
Other Current Liabilities | 380.8m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 3.2B |
Long-Term Debt | 2.7B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 503.4m |
Earnings Waterfall
Ryanair Holdings PLC
Revenue
|
13.4B
EUR
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-8.1B
EUR
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Gross Profit
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5.4B
EUR
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Operating Expenses
|
-3.3B
EUR
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Operating Income
|
2.1B
EUR
|
Other Expenses
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-143.6m
EUR
|
Net Income
|
1.9B
EUR
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Ryanair Holdings PLC
EUR | |
Free Cash Flow | EUR |
Ryanair's nine-month profit soared by 39% to EUR 2.19 billion despite encountering headwinds. Passenger traffic increased by 7% while average fares rose 13%, signaling recovering post-pandemic demand. Ancillaries grew modestly at 2% per passenger. Sustainable practices gained recognition as their ESG rating improved. However, the quarter faced a spike in the fuel bill by EUR 320 million, and aircraft delivery delays from Boeing, which may contribute to higher airfares in the coming summer. The airline's fleet totaled 574 aircraft by the end of the quarter. On the positive side, substantial fuel savings for FY25 have been secured through hedging. The company expressed confidence in operational developments and announced partnerships to improve direct customer access while maintaining low prices. They anticipate a year-end profit of EUR 1.85 billion to EUR 1.95 billion.
What is Earnings Call?
RYAOF Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Ryanair Holdings PLC's profitability score is 53/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Ryanair Holdings PLC's profitability score is 53/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
RYAOF Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Ryanair Holdings PLC's solvency score is 69/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Ryanair Holdings PLC's solvency score is 69/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
RYAOF Price Targets Summary
Ryanair Holdings PLC
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for RYA is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Ryanair Holdings Plc engages in the provision of low fares airline-related services. The company is headquartered in Dublin, Dublin and currently employs 19,116 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2007-02-26. The firm operates through its subsidiaries, Buzz (Ryanair Sun S.A.), Lauda Europe Limited, Malta Air Limited, Ryanair DAC and Ryanair U.K. Limited. The company has a fleet of approximately 483 Boeing 737 aircraft, which is operated by Buzz, Malta Air, Ryanair DAC and Ryanair U.K. The fleet includes 73 Boeing 737-8200 aircraft, each having 197 seats, and Boeing 737-800 aircraft, each having 189 seats. The company has a fleet of 29 leased Airbus A320 aircraft. These aircrafts are operated by Lauda and have 180 seats. The company provides various ancillary services and engages in other activities connected with its core air passenger service, including non-flight scheduled services, Internet-related services and the in-flight sale of beverages, food, duty-free and merchandise. The firm provides its own aircraft and passenger handling and ticketing services at Dublin Airport. Third parties provide these services to Ryanair at other airports it serves.
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The intrinsic value of one RYAOF stock under the Base Case scenario is 31.4 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 14 USD, Ryanair Holdings PLC is Undervalued by 55%.