Luckin Coffee Inc
OTC:LKNCY

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Luckin Coffee Inc
OTC:LKNCY
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Price: 22.83 USD 4.49% Market Closed
Market Cap: 6.4B USD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one LKNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 10.72 USD. Compared to the current market price of 22.83 USD, Luckin Coffee Inc is Overvalued by 53%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

LKNCY Intrinsic Value
10.72 USD
Overvaluation 53%
Intrinsic Value
Price
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Luckin Coffee Inc

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Business Breakdown

Luckin Coffee Inc., founded in 2017, emerged from Beijing's bustling coffee culture with a bold vision to revolutionize the traditional coffee experience in China. By focusing on technology-driven solutions, the company swiftly gained traction through its innovative mobile app and strategically located pick-up stations. Within a few years, Luckin positioned itself as a serious contender against established players like Starbucks, attracting millions of customers with its affordable pricing and convenient ordering options. However, its rapid expansion led to scrutiny as the company faced allegations of fraudulent practices in 2020, resulting in a significant restructuring and a shift in corpo...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Luckin Coffee Inc

Current Assets 8.1B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 3.6B
Receivables 529.8m
Other Current Assets 4B
Non-Current Assets 11.8B
Long-Term Investments 150m
PP&E 10.4B
Other Non-Current Assets 1.2B
Current Liabilities 6B
Accounts Payable 753.2m
Accrued Liabilities 4.7B
Short-Term Debt 300m
Other Current Liabilities 241.1m
Non-Current Liabilities 3.2B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 3.2B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Luckin Coffee Inc

Revenue
28.9B CNY
Cost of Revenue
-20B CNY
Gross Profit
8.9B CNY
Operating Expenses
-6.9B CNY
Operating Income
2.1B CNY
Other Expenses
2.1m CNY
Net Income
2.1B CNY

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Luckin Coffee Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

Luckin Coffee reported robust third-quarter results, with total revenue reaching RMB 10.8 billion, a 41.4% increase year-over-year. This milestone reflects the company’s strong market presence and innovative product offerings, including RMB 7.8 billion from product sales alone. Operating profit soared to RMB 1.56 billion, with a margin of 15.3%, while net profit stood at RMB 1.3 billion, a net margin of 12.8%. The company opened 1,382 new stores, raising its total to 21,343 locations. Looking ahead, Luckin aims for sustained growth and expects to refine its operations to enhance profitability and operational efficiency.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

LKNCY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Luckin Coffee Inc's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
Positive Gross Profit
ROE is Increasing
ROIC is Increasing
61/100
Profitability
Score

Luckin Coffee Inc's profitability score is 61/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

LKNCY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Luckin Coffee Inc's solvency score is 63/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Negative Net Debt
Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
63/100
Solvency
Score

Luckin Coffee Inc's solvency score is 63/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

LKNCY Price Targets Summary
Luckin Coffee Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast LKNCY stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LKNCY is 33.2 USD with a low forecast of 31.31 USD and a high forecast of 35.81 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
31.31 USD
37% Upside
Average
Price Target
33.2 USD
45% Upside
Highest
Price Target
35.81 USD
57% Upside
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Dividends

Luckin Coffee Inc
does not pay dividends
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for LKNCY is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

Shareholder Yield
Dividend Yield
No dividends
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LKNCY News

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Luckin Coffee Inc Logo
Luckin Coffee Inc

Country

China

Industry

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure

Market Cap

6.4B USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Luckin Coffee, Inc. manufactures coffee and operates coffee retail stores. The company is headquartered in Xiamen, Fujian and currently employs 10,555 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2019-05-17. The firm applies new retail models for coffee sales and services. The firm operates primarily through mobile apps and pick-up stores. The firm's products mainly include freshly brewed drinks, juices and light meals. The firm's main brand is Luckin Coffee.

Contact

FUJIAN
Xiamen
17F Block A, Tefang Portman Tower, No. 81 Zhanhong Road, Siming District
+865923386666.0
investor.lkcoffee.com

IPO

2019-05-17

Employees

10 555

Officers

CEO & Chairman
Dr. Jinyi Guo
Chief Financial Officer
Ms. Jing An
Director of Investor Relations
Ms. Alicia Guo
Senior VP & Director
Mr. Wenbao Cao
Strategic Advisor
Mr. Yang Cha
Chief Growth Officer
Mr. Fei Yang
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Senior Vice President
Ms. Tian Zang
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See Also

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What is the Intrinsic Value of one LKNCY stock?

The intrinsic value of one LKNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 10.72 USD.

Is LKNCY stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 22.83 USD, Luckin Coffee Inc is Overvalued by 53%.

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