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Good morning, everyone, and welcome to this DNB third quarter presentation. It's a little bit cold outside and in the markets today. It seems like winter is coming, but luckily it's a lot warmer here inside the DNB headquarters. As usual, Kjerstin will take you through the numbers, but first Rune will give us an update on DNB's overview.
Thomas, and good morning to all of you. Before I start to dig into the results and numbers, let me reconfirm the bank's targets towards 2019. As you know, we aim for at least 12% return on our equity, and we are saying that we should have a cost income ratio below 40%. We are approaching those targets, and have a strong belief that we will deliver on them. And you may ask, how can you be so comfortable in a situation, in a quarter-after-quarter, where you had delivered only 10.9% return on the equity?
Let me start by saying that the reasons why we believe that we will deliver on the 12% has to do with many reasons: First and foremost, the Norwegian economy is strong. It's becoming stronger. And as you know, DNB has 80% of the revenue stemming from Norway, and we have a very solid market position in all segments. The second reason has to do with our platforms. We are expecting NII to grow in all our segments towards 2019. The reason for that is both margin expansion and growth in volumes. Thirdly, we have invested heavily in digital platforms and solutions. Now we are gradually starting to capitalize on our investments, both on the cost side but also on the revenue side.
If you look into the credit quality of the bank, we have had positive migration in our portfolios. We have a very solid and robust exposure towards all segments. And as you can see, hardly no loan losses at all.
So a few words about the 2 soft spots this quarter. It's the fact that trading has been weak for about 3 quarters compared to the past. It's also the fact that IBD and fees from IBD this quarter were a bit softer than we actually expected. Last quarter we said that pipeline is strong. We are still saying that the pipeline is strong. And we have invested in our IBD platform. And it takes time to build it up to the level that we aim for, but we are sure that this quarter is not representative for the IBD activities going forward.
And lastly to the capital position of the bank. As you can see, we have increased our capital from 16.2% to 16.5% in the third quarter. Leverage ratio is, once again, higher than 7%. And we are well fit for future regulation.
Then a few words about the segments. You know and have read a lot about the expectations and uncertainty in the housing market in Norway. However, our growth in the mortgage portfolio is still at a comfortable level, very close to the plans we have set for the year; 3.9% volume growth, if you adjust for the 3 first quarters in line with expectations. And we still expect the growth to continue along the same pace. It's also a fact that we are now seeing some interesting results of the digital investments we have done. And this quarter, we show you the development in our savings app.
It's actually pretty interesting to see that we now have reached more than 320,000 users on our saving app. And the interesting thing is that, now, we sell for more than 100 million a month to our personal customers without doing anything. And actually, the number of sales now in this quarter is 6x the level the same quarter last year. And this is only one of the digital investments we have done over the past, it's more to come.
A few words about the SME segment as well. And it's pretty comforting to say that costs are down 5% from third quarter last year; and income is up 9% from the same quarter, leading to a cost income ratio at 34%, down from almost 40% in 4 quarters. That is a pretty impressive result and the trend is still moving forward along the same line as we have seen in the past. The reason why you see a dip, a small dip in the profit for the quarter compared to second quarter has to do with a slight increase in loan losses. It's not anything that we see related to a negative development or trend, it's still loan losses below what is expected and normalized. It's more or less a handful event this quarter, which is normal for a bank in this segment.
A few words about the large corporate client segment as well. And compare today's situation with 1 year ago, you can see that volumes are significantly down. Actually volumes are down by 5.7% from 3Q last year to 3Q this year. On the other hand, NII is up by 2.7% in the same period of time. What is actually happening in this segment is that we have rebalanced our exposure. We have taken down the exposures in the most volatile and least profitable areas and moved more and more over to more profitable exposures in other segments less volatile and more profitable.
Now we are in a position where we can start to talk about growth again with a more solid and robust platform, less volatile and more profitable. So all in all, this is good news for the quarters to come.
A few words about the strategic positioning as well. And as you know we signed an agreement to sell 24% of our stake in the Baltic bank, Luminor. We still keep 20% of the bank as financial investment for DNB. This is because we believe in the potential value creation going forward. It's a bank with a great potential for market share expansion. It's a bank with the potential for profit increases, and it's a pretty interesting digital platform as well.
You know, of course, that the Baltics have been linked to AML issues. That's why, I believe, it's pretty comfortable to tell you that we have been through 2 thoroughful due diligence processes over the last 18 months. When Blackstone acquired the stake from Nordea and DNB, they spent months in the due diligence room in the data room. And you can imagine how thoroughful an American private equity owner actually behaved in a situation where you know that attention is on the AML side.
So we are comfortable with our stake and believe there will be value creation going forward. And we intend, at least for a while, to keep our asset. Second, we have also taken a few interesting strategic initiatives on the digital side this quarter. We signed up with 11:FS, an exciting cloud tech platform company. And we have created a kind of joint venture for the Nordic region, where we have the right to develop a pretty interesting solution for our clients together with 11:FS. This is only one example on what we are doing, but it's pretty interesting when it comes to the overall digital strategy going forward. And on top of that, we also entered into an agreement with the company so we can offer SMEs accounting solutions going forward, which will be a competitive edge in the segment we already have a strong position in.
And lastly, sustainability. It's becoming more and more focus on sustainability issues among investors, clients and all stakeholders in society. That's why we believe it's a positive news for the bank to have taken the third position regarding ESG related to the ranking from Sustainalytics. We do a lot in the social and environmental side, and you will hear more about our initiatives going forward.
And now Kjerstin, you can give a more detailed explanation on what's going on.
Thank you, Rune, and a very good morning to all of you. So the development in the various areas that Rune talked about adds up to the following growth developments for the group in the quarter as such. Underlying growth for the group, a relative stable picture, 0.2 if you adjust for the currency effect.
More important, we feel, it is to look at the mix of the growth, which is in line with what we have aimed for, with a stronger growth in personal customers and SMEs than in the large corporate sector. Given that we are in the third quarter, we -- it's meaningful to look at the annualized year-to-date growth aiming for 4% in the personal customer sector; 6.7% in the SME sector; and for LCI, more fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter, but the underlying operations gives an annual growth of 1.2%, which is very much in line with what we have aimed for.
The average volumes that are also the drivers for the net interest income are somewhat more impacted by currency fluctuations than the ultimate numbers. So here, we see a growth in loans of 2.3%; and a growth in deposits of 1.2%, but a picture very much in line with what we have expected and guided for. So we're not making any changes, 3% to 4%, and a stronger growth development in personal customers and SMEs.
Margins are relatively stable for the year with some fluctuations from quarter-to-quarter. The NIM is down by close to 3 basis points this quarter. The most important message is related to the customer pricing, which stays stable throughout the quarter. So there is a mix of effect that leads to a slight reduction on margins; somewhat lower activity on refinancings in the large corporate area; and somewhat lower interest from the equity due to the payment of dividends and the continued share buyback activity.
We talked about stable margins going into the year. This has very much been the case for the volume-weighted spreads. The NIM is at a higher level than we entered the year in, and a repricing effect that we have done during the last quarter will, over time, have a positive effect on the NIM going forward. This adds up to a positive growth on the net interest income by NOK 100 million from the previous quarter. The growth is driven by increased volumes and an additional interest rate day compared to the previous quarter, which more than adds up for a somewhat smaller contribution from what I talked about on the margins, refinancing activity and interest from the equity.
You're well aware that we did some repricing towards customers in the personal customers sector and the SME sector during the previous quarter. This will take in effect from the 4th of November for the personal customers and the end -- 24th, 25th of October for the SME. We have repriced in aggregate NOK 700 billion of loan exposure in between 15 to 25 basis points. This will have a positive contribution to our net interest income in 2019.
For '19, it's also important to bear in mind that we have increased cost from the resolution fund that we have stated at approximately NOK 350 million. Commission and fees are usually impacted by seasonal variations in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, and this is the case this year as well. If we compare it to the third quarter last year, it's a relatively stable picture for most of the elements in the fees and commissions with the exception of Investment Banking that Rune has also talked to.
Lower activity across all capital markets. We also had a good contribution from M&A activity last year. That has also been slow this quarter, this year so there is a reduction of close to NOK 150 million in Investment Banking revenues from the previous year.
The important message is related to expectations going forward. We do not see this as a structural trend. Investment Banking is an area that we have built up both in terms of widening products and geography, and we have clear ambitions and expectations to be able to grow this area over time going forward.
To comment on a couple of the other elements, real estate, the housing market, it's always of high interest. Compared to last year, looks like a slight dip. But actually, if we adjust for the activity in the commercial real estate brokerage, there is a slightly higher contribution from the real estate brokerage activity third quarter this year.
And assets management, growth by 3.6% compared to the same quarter last year. We have some outflows on the institutional side, but strong inflows year-to-date of more than 11% from the retail sector with more attractive profitability. So this more than outweighs for the outflow of institutional assets.
Other areas, more stable. And if we look at the development over time and discard the investment banking, there is a 12-month growth of 2.8% on our fees and commissions.
I wanted to touch upon the net gains on financial instruments as well. This is the line that is volatile from quarter-to-quarter, mainly due to the market variations of the basis swaps and the 81 instrument that we have on our books. But the financial instruments also contains the customer revenue related to FX and interest rate hedging with customers and our own trading activity.
And this is, as I believe you've seen from other companies who are active in these markets, somewhat slower market this year compared to the previous year with an additional seasonal effect in the third quarter. Very different, though, in nature. So customer revenue in markets is related to customer activity in terms of interest-rate hedging, which has been maybe a little bit surprisingly low this year when the interest rates have started to move. We do not see this as a structural shift, and we have clear ambitions and expectations to grow this again over time.
If we look at trading, there's a couple of elements that is important to keep in mind when you look at the development and the numbers. Firstly, a large chunk of the revenues previously reported in trading is net interest income between NOK 200 million and NOK 250 million a quarter and this has been moved to our net interest income. The remainder of trading is related to taking positions on the kroner and Norwegian interest rate and this has been a more challenging market this year. Here there is also, we believe, some structural effect related to new regulations and less liquidity in the market. The results will vary from quarter-to-quarter, but believed to be impacted by structural effect as well.
Costs, down NOK 46 million compared to the previous quarter, impacted by somewhat lower activity from sales, marketing and traveling as well as very low restructuring costs this quarter. And this decrease more than outweighs the effect of increased activity on the IT side as well as a couple of other elements. We do expect some somewhat higher activity in the fourth quarter, and we typically also see a higher activity on the IT side in the fourth quarter.
We continue to work hard on costs, with the initiatives that we outlined on our Capital Markets Day and continue to see effects of digitization and automation. And we remain committed to the target we have talked about of having a cost base below 40% of revenue.
Losses are very low, NOK 11 million for the quarter as such. Personal customers at a very low level and even reduced from the previous quarter, very low number given the portfolio of more than NOK 700 billion. SME, up from the second quarter. But again, well within and below what you would say are normal levels for a portfolio of NOK 260 billion. More importantly, I believe it is to point out that the losses are due to a few company-specific situations and no trends that we are worried about in that portfolio. That remains of high quality.
Large corporates come in with a contribution that is net reversals of NOK 281 million for the quarter. There are movements in both directions. The largest reversal stems from the oil-related sectors, both due to a positive migration in the quality overall and the fact that a couple of situations had been resolved and led to reversals.
There are, on the other hand, some companies moving from what we call Stage 2 to Stage 3 deteriorating. But these, again, are not of any industry pattern or structural change but more company-specific situations. And in sum then, a positive contribution to the large corporates this quarter.
Capital is strong. We're building close to 30 basis points on the core equity this quarter and have a CET1 ratio of 16.5%. If we look at the CET1 without the Basel floor, this grows from 16.9% to a strong 17.1% in the quarter. And we find it increasingly interesting to talk about the capital ratio without the floor because, as many of you are well aware, the FSA have issued a proposal to integrate the CRR/CRD IV regulations into Norwegian law, and that contains a proposal to remove the floor effect from the Norwegian regulatory environment.
We have also said that we do not expect a substantial capital relief from a removal of the floor, and the FSA have been clear stating that they will look to use other tools to make sure that the banks stay well capitalized as they're also expressing that, they find them to be today. We have just received our annual review of the Pillar 2 requirement that the FSA does an annual review of. And this year, they have decided to increase the Pillar 2 requirement by 20 basis points.
This increases our targeted capital level to 16.3%, including the management buffer of about 100 basis points. But as I'm sure you also see, we have a larger delta than these 20 basis points when you compare capital rules with and without the Basel floor. Leverage ratio is strong, 7.1%, strong with regards to the requirement of 6, and particularly strong given the comparison with other banks, both Nordic and European. So we're solid on capital.
These numbers adds up to the following development on the key numbers. Bear in mind that the second quarter we have a one-off gain from the Vipps merger, and there is a stable to positive development on earnings per share, return on equity and cost income compared to the same quarter last year. Given that we are already in the last quarter of this year, we think it's also interesting to show the development year-to-date on our key numbers, where you see a more consistent and positive development across the key numbers.
Earnings per share up by 15%, obviously, important for our dividend capacity and capital growth. Return on equity with a clear improvement of 1 percentage point compared to the same time last year, and an improvement of 70 basis points on the cost income.
So with that, I think we can open up for questions.
Okay. We are more than happy to take your questions. And we'll start with Jan on -- in the middle.
Good morning, Jan Gjerland from ABG. I just want to come back to the securities income side and the trading side because that is sort of where the weak spot has been both in Nordea and you today. So how can you be so certain that more lumpy securities income is coming back again in Q4 with the sort of markets we have today even though the pipeline is good? You need more stable markets to implement ECM and DCM deals, et cetera. So how could you shed some light into your certainty that, that will return in the Q4 and during 2019?
Investment Banking. Uncertainty -- no, certainty, I think, is a strong word for a business that is exposed to market activity and somewhat volatile in its nature. So I believe our comments that this is not a structural change also goes for the longer term. But quarterly result as such may fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter. We have, though, seen that we have built our brand and activity in the Investment Banking over time by expanding geographically, strengthening our presence in New York, London and Stockholm, in particular, and that we are increasingly building income in other areas than energy and shipping. So that trend is positive. There is a high activity going into the fourth quarter. So we have -- we are positive when it comes to expectations of results, but we have to be cautious and say that depending on the markets, and they are a bit choppy out there, it's very challenging to be specific from quarter-to-quarter. But longer term, we have an ambition, and I believe that we will be able to grow the results and the contribution from the Investment Banking activity.
Just on the second question on cost, you have a very positive cost development and you're saying that the digital solutions are now sort of paying fruits. How more can you really come down on, I should say, mortgage, back office, et cetera, just to -- we need to understand how you actually are developing in the cost trend, which I think is -- which is the positive sign of DNB here today.
I think it's interesting to look at what we have done, firstly, in the distribution network, the front-office side where we have taken down a number of branches significantly. Then we started to work on the digitalization process to have a straight-through processing of all our mortgages. And as you know, we are one of the few banks globally that actually can offer straight to digital processing of mortgages to our clients. The numbers that go straight through are still at the low level, but they are gradually climbing. We are seeing that more than 70% of applications for mortgage clients actually start on the digital route, and the number that actually continue to move digitally is moving in the right direction. But it takes time, both when it comes to refinancing and new mortgages, to get the percentage up to that level we aim for. But we are seeing a positive trend. And while working with that trend, we can gradually phase out middle office and back office administrative work. It will not be a big chunks from quarter-to-quarter or year-to-year. It will be smaller improvements ongoing that will be adding on to the efficiency activities all in all for the group. So that's why we are comfortable when we are talking about our digital initiatives, and they will be showing results going forward.
Okay. And we have a question from Vegard Toverud, comfortably sitting in the stairs. It's a hard-knock life being an analyst.
This is a very popular presentation. Well, I have 2 questions, if that's okay. First, just to understand your comment on Luminor there Rune, you said that during the 2 due diligence processes there were nothing found that could trigger -- nothing to follow-up in connection with suspicious transactions, money laundering, things like that, or nothing of significance, just to understand?
Nothing, nothing found in the due diligence process regarding whistleblower activities, regarding AML breaches, regarding also events that we haven't known about in the past. And that is why we are saying that we are having comfort in what has been done over the years through the Baltic operations. But as you know, you can never give any kind of 100% guarantees. But I think the numbers released from the Estonian central bank related to cross-border payments show that our activity in Estonia, compared to the other bank, was extremely limited.
And just to then hear your thinking about what the FSA could do to maintain the capital on your balance sheet, in addition to increasing the Pillar 2 requirements, what would you think they would try to do? Or what kind of tools do you think they would try to do?
I mean, when you are looking at the tool box to the FSA, they have pretty -- many tools in that box. The key point from Kjerstin and myself this morning is that I believe that we are at the level they want to see us. Whatever happens with the floor and when it happens, we are at the level they want to see us. But as you know, they still have a room regarding the countercyclical buffer. They can obviously adjust Pillar 2 requirements up and down, and they have other tools as well. But the key point is we are well-capitalized. We believe that they are seeing the bank at the level they want to see it. And they are now more focused on other things than they have been in the past because we have made the capital build along the way they expected and wanted to see.
If I could just follow-up that, do you think there is any -- the things you are discussing now are more broadly for the whole industry. If they would like -- as you are already see there's some discussion about making the other regional banks safe as well, that would, on the relative, be positive for you. So I'm just curious if there's anything that you think they could do to target you specifically.
I mean, they increased the Pillar 2 requirements for DNB, and they have said that they are considering to introduce the regional banks as critical to the system. And this is only a fact that they are trying to use all the tools they have in the box, not only towards DNB, but also the other banks as well, not to provide any significant reliefs when they remove the floor.
And we have a question from Thomas Svendsen, who's got an aisle seat.
Thomas Svendsen from Nordea Markets. A couple of questions on costs. You pointed out that IT costs are set to go somewhat up in Q4. If we think about the full year 2018, should we expect more or less stable cost, IT costs into '19? And question number two, if we look at now the number of employees, it's going a little bit up, a little bit down during the year, slightly up in the fourth -- third quarter here. If we look into '19 and '20, what should we expect in terms of personnel development?
We've talked to our investment through this year on the IT side and had been clear that our activity on the development side, we expected that to be more or less stable compared to the previous year. There can be smaller variations regarding how much is actually accounted for on the balance sheet and depreciated, but the overall IT activity more or less in line with last year. We haven't set targets for '19. I think what's important for us on the cost side is that we are committed to deliver on our overall cost target, which is the 40%, below 40% cost income. And when it comes to investments, it's both important to be efficient, but at the same time making sure that we are investing at the right level so that we make the investment necessary to take out future costs. We make the investment necessary in the digital platforms to continue to increase our attractivity towards customers. In terms of number of employees, over time, the larger trend is that we typically increase efficiency in traditional areas of banking. Whereas we are making investments into the technology side, we've strengthened our staff on the -- of risk and compliance side. So there's a shift there in between. But over time, we expect total number to go down. This can, of course, also depend on our new initiatives that we do on the digital side and how successful we are in building up new business areas. But if we look at the operations today, over time, we expect a reduction.
We have a question again from Jan Gjerland, left-hand side.
Just some few follow-ups since there were not so much questions. Deposits, how little have you really repriced on the deposit side? You said some NOK 700 million on the lending side.
NOK 700 billion.
Yes. NOK 700 billion. So how little have you done on the deposit side? And the second, the IFRS 9 factors, could you shed some light into how the macro forward-looking factors have impacted the SME side versus these few cases that you mentioned? Secondly, on the large corporate side, how much have macro factors factored into the LCI? And finally, how large is this whole portfolio in Q3 for LCI?
When it comes to pricing of deposits, I can say as a principle that deposit-to-loan ratio is about 60%. And we have said that we have repriced up to a specific level. Obviously, we have not been as aggressive in repricing current accounts, but savings accounts and specific accounts for younger people and so on has been repriced. But out of competitive reasons, we are not giving product prices as such or product volume oversight.
I can address the IFRS 9. There has been very little impact in the portfolio and in the IFRS numbers due to changes in the macroeconomic environment. I mean, the macroeconomic environment is very strong and the outlook has been quite consistent. This goes for both the SME portfolio as well as the large corporate portfolio. But there is some quality improvements in the portfolio that results in a net positive migration. The noncore portfolio in large corporate, which I believe is the one you asked about next, continues to shrink. It is now at USD 6.9 billion. We're not looking to sell all of that portfolio. Part of that portfolio will be restructured and reintroduced through the healthy line operation, if you will. And the remainder of it, we will continue to reduce either by refinancings, restructurings or if it is attractive, sale and resolving.
Yes, we have a question from Johan Ström in the front.
So my first question is on the new Pillar 2 requirements. What was the reasons for the 20 basis points increase today?
No specific reasons as such. But as you've heard the regulator been talking all the time, they are saying that they adjust for different risks as they see it. And as we interpret it, it is more kind of a tactical approach to the removal of the floor. We haven't seen any significant increases in any of the risks of the bank, and it's a marginal increase. And I don't think they have seen specific events or development in our portfolios or our risk parameters either.
It was very clear. And then I'd like to come back to the, I guess, question about which buffer, how they will keep the capital on the balance sheet. I mean, it's -- maybe a substantial amount that you could take out of the bank if you were to just move from Basel I, take out the Basel I floors and move to Basel IV. But is it the Pillar 2 requirement that seems to be the most likely buffer that will increase? And if that's the case, should we kind of expect some uncertainty on an annual basis with regards on where the capital will end up? I mean the...
We have said over time that they are more eager to keep the bank at a certain level, and the level they are probably looking the most at is the leverage ratio. So if we are about 7% in our leverage ratio, I believe that is more or less in the ballpark of where they want to see the bank as of today. We will not raise expectations in the market that a removal of the floor will lead to a capital relief that might be followed up by increased buybacks or cash dividends because we think we are at the level they want to see us. But as you see, we have a dividend capacity. We have a buyback capacity. And we are firm when we are saying that excess capital will be paid out to the owners.
Again, very clear. And then finally then on the buyback program. If I've done the math right, I think you've done something like 60% of the current buyback program. But you haven't bought back any share since early September. What's the main reason for that?
We -- your math is quite correct, Johan. We have bought back 60% of the current program that we announced. We are managing this in relation to when we enter into results and other elements that we are taking into consideration. I think the main message remains that this is a tool for us to optimize on the capital situation that we will use to pay out capital. We have more capacity under the current program, and we have another 0.5 percentage point capacity under the approval from the FSA. And we have until the next general assembly, really to consider using that or even apply for more if need be.
Then we have a new question from Vegard, please.
We have front row seats here if you want.
I will remember that for next time. And just to pick up on the comments then on the trading revenues and markets, so not the customer driven. You commented that there were some structural changes that relate to new regulations and also some lower liquidity, if I remember correctly. So is there any reason that the liquidity should change and which regulations have impacted it?
It's partly regulations and partly the pattern of the trade that we see as potential structural elements in this area. When it comes to regulation, that is related to liquidity requirement for banks, funding requirement, NSFR, LCR ratio that leads to a lower level of activity in the market as such. So that is the first one. The second one is related to a more robo trading and algorithms that are active in the market. That has made it more challenging to take a view on the Norwegian currency, which I'm sure you've also seen it has moved in very different patterns, having weak spots in this year's market, where the macro has been strong; the oil price has been strong; interest rates are on their way up; and the currency has been surprisingly weak. So it's both the regulation and the nature of the trade that exist in the market that has made it more challenging.
And a question from Jan Erik.
Just a follow-up on, I guess, the trading line. Is this all that you have taken a wrong position this quarter in the currencies or interest rates or trades, which is sort of significant?
We have no significant losses on our positions, I can talk year-to-date, but we have no significant gains either. And this line, you're correct. It varies with the results of the position you are taking. But there are no significant positions that have gone wrong. But we haven't had it as much on the upside either.
Okay. Any last takers? Good. So from the DNB team, have a fantastic day. The yet is best to come -- the best is yet to come.
The yet is best to come.
The yet is best to come. Thank you.
Thank you.