Volue ASA

OSE:VOLUE

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Jacob Zeno Krovel, executive]

Okay, hi, everyone. I am Jacob Clausen Krøvel. I'm in investor relations at Volue.

Thank you for dialing in to this presentation of Volue's financial results for the second quarter. And the presentation will be given by Trond Straume, CEO of Volue; and Arnstein Kjesbu, the company's CFO.

Following the presentation, we will do a Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] So that's the practicalities. With that, I'll hand the word over to Trond to kick us off.

[Trond Straume, executive]

Thank you so much, Jacob. And good morning, everyone.

And as Jacob said then at the start, I'm Trond Straume, the CEO. Arnstein Kjesbu is with me today. And we're really pleased to have you on this call talking through the second quarter results from Volue.

For those of you who are new to Volue. The company was created in 2020, but our roots dates back to 1969 as part of a Norwegian research institute. We have more than 2,500 customers across more than 40 countries. And our team of more than 800 colleagues are spread across 9 countries and share the same passion of helping our customers navigate the green transition. And we're active in 3 segments, all with relevance to the transition to renewable energy.

For the Energy segment, we decided to expand from a dominating Nordic position in 2013 and into continental Europe. Since then, we've worked to expand our platform into thermal, solar, wind, batteries, et cetera. And this is important to our customers as they continue to operate their existing assets while expanding capacity in new asset types. For our Power Grid business, we enjoy a strong market position in the Nordics with decades of experience supporting our customers, building probably the strongest grid in Europe and now tested through the EV revolution. We believe we can expand our footprint on the back end of our market position in the Energy segment.

With our Infrastructure business, we work to complete a SaaS transformation in our home markets, with more than 1,000 customers in the infrastructure and construction business and covering 85% of the Norwegian population with our water and wastewater business. Combined with ongoing expansion to Sweden and Denmark, we believe in further increased profitable growth in Scandinavia.

Now let's move over to the highlights of the second quarter of 2024. Looking at the financial performance, we're pleased to continue our track record of strong growth in ARR and SaaS revenues.

In the quarter, recurring revenues amounted to NOK 292 million, representing 24% growth. SaaS revenues ended on NOK 135 million, which is 38% higher than Q2 last year. Operating revenues came in at NOK 409 million, representing a growth of 9% compared to the same quarter last year. Excluding the effects from Enerim, operating revenues were flat compared to the same period last year.

The development in operating revenues is a consequence of softer markets for nonrecurring volatility-driven revenues in the Energy segment, combined with a strategic decision to shift such revenues towards ARR and build a more resilient revenue base over time. The Power Grid segment delivered its strongest adjusted EBITDA margin since listing. And the Infrastructure segment continued to put strong numbers in profitability, ARR and SaaS. Having completed the technical ARR transformation, the segment is reaping the benefits while displaying Volue's business model transformation capabilities.

We see strong sales closing in the quarter, expanding our runway for growth. Furthermore, the quarter saw us launch our new AI-based wind model. It significantly strengthens the position of our Insight platform, and we're exciting -- excited to shed more light on it shortly. ARR and SaaS continue to grow with the same momentum, building more robust revenue streams by each passing quarter. The scalability in our business model brings improved margins in accordance with our guidance.

On July 8, Edison Bidco announced an intention to launch a voluntary cash offer for all outstanding shares in Volue. Edison Bidco is a newly established entity which will be owned by Arendals Fossekompani, Advent International and Generation Investment Management. The offer at NOK 42 per share represents a premium of 51% to the last traded price preceding the announcement. When comparing to the 3 and 6 months volume-weighted average price, the premium is at 39% and 50%, respectively. As Volue, we view the bid as confirmation of the value we bring to our customers every single day.

Now I'd like to zoom in on what we regard as a groundbreaking launch from our [ in-cycling ] during Q2, the new AI-based wind model. Unlike our previous model which focused on the physical relationship between wind speed and wind power, the new model is built on AI and machine learning techniques in addition to the current numerical techniques, making this a hybrid model where we get the best from both worlds. A key feature of our new model is its automated daily retraining capabilities. This ensures the model stays current with the latest data inputs, providing more accurate and reliable forecasts. Additionally, by utilizing a broader range of weather inputs covering entire countries, we've overcome previous limitations associated with static location-based forecasting.

In today's rapidly evolving renewable energy landscape where changes in geographical distribution can occur swiftly, our model excels. It adapts seamlessly to these changes, ensuring Insight by Volue customers receive accurate forecasts regardless of evolving conditions. As the energy mix and our customers' portfolios consist of increasing degrees of weather-driven intermittent resources, an uplift in accuracy by 20% can have enormous monetary implications. And we are proud to provide this edge to our customers.

So now let's zoom back out and look at Volue's strategy for growth. For decades, Volue has built a solid license and maintenance business based on mission-critical solutions, continuing to provide stable revenues. These robust cash flows limit churn vulnerability and enable investments in the solutions of tomorrow. This allows for an attractive combination of profitability and strong growth. On top of this foundation, we are building SaaS revenues with our land-and-expand go-to-market strategy. It allows us to deliver SaaS revenues that are outgrowing ARR and nonrecurring revenues, avoiding this [ bathtub ] effect while transforming the business model and improving profitability.

We've gained a strong foothold in Europe through our strategy. Our foothold, we will continue to increase. The markets we operate in are already enormous, and to add to our efforts in chasing growth, they're increasing insights at a high pace. When we look at this holistically, Volue is in a perfect position for profitable growth and business model transformation; and we have proven our ability to execute.

Volue's solutions are at the heart of the everyday processes of customers, enabling efficient production and trading of power across Europe. Unlocking sustainability benefits and operational improvements with higher and more consistent returns provides Volue with robust revenues. Delivering unparalleled customer value every day for years has helped Volue foster long-standing relationships with a highly conservative customer group. And consequently, Volue has gained a great vendor position where we are on the right side of the fence with industry giants, accompanied by high switching costs for our customers.

Our history, track record and domain knowledge provides us with predictable recurring revenues from current solutions. Combined with an industry-leading customer churn below 2% creates a great foundation for the journey that we've embarked upon. And at Volue, we have decades of experience in mastering complex optimization problems at scale for our customers. As power producers diversify their portfolios, bringing more asset classes into the mix, the optimization problems becomes increasingly complex. And Volue thrives in this environment.

So this is what it looks like when we put our decades of experience into the next-gen optimization solution Smart Power and optimize power production for a major European power producer. The green line here represents power production and the blue line is the market price for electricity. Starting at the left-hand side of the graph, production is stable when using their legacy solution. When reaching the go-live mark, the value of Smart Power becomes clear as daylight, hundreds of assets across hydro, thermal and batteries, all singing in unison to the market.

The business outcome for the customer is two-folded. Firstly, this solution clearly drives revenues and profitability. Secondly, the power producer contributes to improved balance in the energy system, exemplifying profitable energy transition in practice by Volue. The improved balance is crucial and one we will get back to shortly. Looking at how Volue's solutions help drive business performance, it's not hard to see why Volue enjoys low customer churn.

And on top of a robust foundation, we're building SaaS revenues with our go-to-market strategy. First, we lead with the Insight platform. The offering is an industry-leading analytics platform for energy professionals allowing for full overview of energy markets and fundamental data. The sales cycle of this offering is typically 6 hours to 6 weeks. And they're relatively easy sell for us, providing a foot in the door with the customer. Secondly, when our customers have gained knowledge of the markets, they want to trade; and that's when we follow on with our trading solutions. At Volue, we possess the market-leading algo trader, reaching the milestone of 55 million trades over the last 12 months. The sales cycle of this offering is typically 6 weeks to 6 months.

Thirdly, we have our Smart Power platform. When customers have insights on the markets and are trading sophistically, they need to optimize their production, exemplified on the previous slide. Using this offering requires customers to change how they monetize their assets. And consequently, the sales cycle is longer, typically from 6 to 18 months. The good thing is that, when it's sold and onboarded, it is super sticky.

The value we bring is obvious. And combined with our efficient go-to-market strategy, we were able to achieve net retention rates of 109% in 2021, 107% in '22 and an impressive 117% in '23. In our view, these numbers are clear evidence to our growth journey and our ability to grow customer relationships.

Over this summer, we've seen 2 particularly interesting events that directly impacts our European market. At Volue, we have been outspoken about the risk of blackouts in Europe for a long time. Hence, we were not surprised by the events in the Balkans this summer. On June 21, Balkan experienced extreme heat, with temperatures soaring above 40 degrees Celsius. The heat wave caused a surge in power cooling demand and sparked fire on several cables, leading to blackouts in Albania, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. The outages lasted from 30 minutes to 2 hours in the different regions. And the events are clear evidence that today's energy system needs way more responsive flexibility and sophisticated insight at both producers and grid operators even in Europe. What transpired in Balkan is a proof point that the energy system need more of what Volue has to offer, like Smart Power that we elaborated on 2 slides back, enabling sustained ARR growth for Volue.

In July, we saw the bold decision by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to end synchronization with Russia and Belarus in February 2025. We've said for several quarters that we've seen a change in the Eastern European countries. Instead of looking east for energy security, they're now looking westward; and the recent announcements make this shift very clear. Besides the obvious fact that this project is huge and risky, requiring tremendous coordination, the disconnection will speed up the development of the Baltic [indiscernible] balancing markets. This in turn will speed up the development of battery capacity in the Baltics. And there has already been a surge of investment interests in batteries in Lithuania. More [ evolved ] markets and more batteries means more advanced optimization problems playing right into Volue's hands.

In combination, these 2 incidents exemplify development that push Europe in Volue's direction and enable sustained ARR growth within our current European footprint.

Looking beyond our strong foundation, the building of SaaS revenues as well as a strong position in Europe, let's look at the markets we operate in. We estimate the current European and Japanese SAM for Volue's energy system serving portfolio is NOK 20 billion in ARR. The energy system is the green transition, and few other markets are fueled by global megatrends like the markets we operate in. At Volue, we believe that push for electrification will provide market tailwinds for as long as we can see.

From 2020 to 2030, the number of power producers in Europe is estimated to increase with a CAGR of 6% from 8,600 to 15,000, bringing more potential customers to Volue. Furthermore, from 2023 to 2030, [ pre-installed ] renewable capacity in Western Europe is estimated to grow with a CAGR of 10% from 390 to 750 gigawatts, bringing more volatility into the system and increase the need for Volue's solutions. Combined, this gives ample room for growth, as market sizes will transform. And Volue will expand its serviceable addressable market through geographical expansions and product development.

In sum, these building blocks sets up Volue for success. Our long-standing customer relationships built on decades of domain knowledge and delivery of system-critical solutions, they're rare and are difficult to replicate. They provide us with long cash flows and churn protection, from which we can build SaaS revenues through our go-to-market strategy. We have a strong position in Europe, while our end markets are growing at a high pace, leaving ample room for growth. With such a promising field to play in, why should Volue be the player to thrive? Well, the best and most tangible evidence are what we find when we look in the rearview mirror.

Since listing, we've been able to execute on the opportunities arising in the market and grown operating revenues by 75% from NOK 892 million in 2020 to NOK 1,558 million over the last 12 months. ARR has increased by 93% in the same period from NOK 572 million to NOK 1,105 million. SaaS revenues have increased by 223% from NOK 147 million in 2020 to NOK 475 million. The pace at which SaaS is outgrowing ARR, which is -- which in turn is outgrowing operating revenues, speaks directly to the ongoing business model transformation. Adding that, our annualized ARR base have exceeded NOK 1.2 billion. It brings some visibility to our growth. Furthermore, after headwinds on profitability in 2022, we've been able to increase adjusted EBITDA margins as guided while undergoing such powerful growth on key metrics.

From a more operational point of view and one of the indications that we have on market development are the number of algo trades on our platform. Since listing, this has increased by 171% from 21 million to 57 million over the last 12 months. The Volue platform has become the market leader and executes about 1/4 of all [ internal ] trades on the European Power Exchange, EPEX, on behalf of our customers. This is a testament not only to our ability to bring customers on to the platform but also the underlying movement in the market, which is moving faster and faster, precisely like we want it to.

So with these proof points on our ability to execute, it's time to hand over to Arnstein Kjesbu, our CFO, for the second quarter financial results.

[Arnstein Kjesbu, executive]

Thank you, Trond.

I will now go through our financial performance for the second quarter of 2024.

So Volue's revenues continued to grow in the second quarter. Operating revenues ended at NOK 409 million, increasing with 9% from Q2 2023. The organic growth was flat in the quarter due to the soft revenues coming in from trading advisories services in a more volatile trading area and -- that was declining in the period. In addition, we also have ongoing transformations in business models over to recurring revenues. The Energy segment then faced headwinds in the nonrecurring volatility-driven revenues when comparing the second quarter of 2023. However, strong performance in our recurring business models, that continued to grow. With that in mind, we are especially pleased with the uplift in ARR and SaaS that outweighed the decrease in nonrecurring revenues, with growth rate of 24% and 38%, respectively.

Furthermore, margins in the quarter have improved, despite the shortfalling in nonrecurring revenues, with higher margins. As a proof point of the increased profitability, we stay on the path of building a more resilient business with highly attractive revenue streams in our key metrics. The CapEx levels in Q2 and also year-to-date in '24 is slightly higher than previous quarter. And we expect this to decrease in the short to medium term. So Volue continue to invest in next-generation solutions to meet our long-term ambitions, but still, improving margin and cash flow is [ core priority ] also going forward.

Shifting to the next slide, we'll -- our -- we can see that our share of revenues from ARR now has -- is 71% for the second quarter of 2024. And in the quarter, Volue generated NOK 292 million in recurring revenues. The uplift in ARR for the last 12 months is also up to 71%, which is a substantial improvement throughout the last year.

Our share of revenues from SaaS for the second quarter were 33%. And Volue generated NOK 135 million in SaaS revenues. The uplift in SaaS in Q2 to 31% of total revenues is -- also is significant improvement. The growth in ARR and SaaS are driven from all the segments and strengthening our revenues and foundation on which we'll continue to build recurring revenues.

Shifting to the next slide. Growth in annualized recurring revenues is based on new sales, upsell and price lift, as you can see from our net retention rate features. As stated previously in the presentation, we've seen strong sales in the quarter. And the base was growing with 30% from Q2 2023. At the end of Q2, our ARR basis, annualized recurring revenue, [ on a 12-month basis ] is NOK 1.245 billion. The uplift in Q1 was driven by [ also ] new sales and price uplift, whilst in Q2, the uplift is driven by new sales since mostly our new -- our price uplift comes into the base in Q1. The growth in the base from last year stems from strong sales in 2023 and also in 2024. And furthermore, this will give uplift in the ARR levels for the remaining 2024. Combined with good market outlook, we expect ARR and -- to keep on growing also further into 2024.

As we are undergoing transformation of our business models, we are pleased to see that our churn level remains very low and dropping at a last 12 months basis. Please note that the figures are reported as churn on our total ARR revenues, while earlier we reported churn on -- based on total revenues.

We have started to report on the net retention rate. These figures shown only covers the year-to-date figures for 2024. And the total MRR, monthly recurring revenues, is the sum of delivered contracts to our customers. Main share of the contracts are yearly renewed within the start of the year. Price increase, which is -- consists both of CPI and additional extraordinary price increases, mainly hit the books in Q1. The same applies for churn and downsell.

Annual amounts are only indication of MRR on annual basis. However, we see the first half year's as a very strong performance.

Moving on to the Energy segment. We are pleased to see that the growth continues. This quarter, the segment is growing with 10%, with a negative organic growth of 9%. We are especially pleased to see that, in the quarter, the growth rates in recurring revenues continues to be very strong despite the short -- whilst we had shortfalling in volatility revenues coming down, with an effect on approximately NOK 23 million in the quarter. Then it's especially very pleasing to see that our recurring revenue business model are then giving us also uplift in our contributions.

And the adjusted EBITDA is reduced compared to last year, but given the high-margin profile from the nonrecurring revenues in 2023, the [ live ] development in our recurring business is going in the right way. We estimate that cash effect is approximately [ 9 million ] less in Q2 2024, compared to Q2 of 2023, for those volatility revenues.

Also we are pleased to see that the integration of Enerim is going as planned. And we're able to create momentum towards the -- our combined service offering within this segment.

Moving on to the Power Grid. We see that the segment is developing in the right way. This quarter, we can report a growth of 11% and improved in both adjusted EBITDA and the ARR share compared to the same period last year. We are seeing uplifts in recurring revenues [ that gives both ] growth also going forward, combined with a good market outlook. And the margins in the quarter has increased, as you can see, from Q2 2023, with a more stable cost base as the main reason compared to last year. Well, we continue to invest quite significantly in addressing new market opportunities and for products to grow to meet the opportunities we'll see in the markets.

Moving on to the Infrastructure segment. We are pleased to see that we have a strong growth in recurring revenues; and especially on the SaaS, which has grown with 67% from last year. The momentum in the business is quite solid with strong closing of new sales. Margins has improved, are among the highest we have been able to report for the segment. And we'll see that the shift in business models is impacting our possibility to deliver uplift in margins on a stable recurring revenue base. And furthermore, we do believe that the team, the current team, is scaled to capture growth and at the same time improve our [ cash EBITDA ] margins in -- also going forward in the years to come.

With that, [ it's about ] to hand over the word back to you, Trond.

[Trond Straume, executive]

Thank you, Arnstein.

And now let's shift our focus to guidance. Volue maintains [ a ] long-term guidance on organic growth, an active M&A agenda and year-on-year improvements of important KPIs. Hence, Volue's long-term guidance to the market continues to be as follows: annual long-term organic growth of 15%; active M&A agenda with 1 to 2 deals per year; year-by-year increase of adjusted EBITDA margins, cash conversion, share of ARR and SaaS revenues.

After closing of the quarter, Edison Bidco, a newly established entity by Arendals Fossekompani, Advent International and Generation Investment Management, has announced their intention to launch a voluntary cash offer for all outstanding shares in Volue. The offer, at NOK 42 per share, represents a premium of 51% to the last trading price preceding the announcement. When comparing to the 3 and 6 months volume-weighted average price, the premium is at 39% and 50%, respectively. And at Volue, we view the bid as confirmation of the value we bring to our customers every day. Management's focus is the same today as it was before this announcement, creating shareholder value through customer value, and will continue to do so. I also want to remind and highlight that the intended bid and the process around it is handled by the independent Board and not by Volue's management.

So that concludes the presentation. And we can now open up for Q&A.

[Jacob Zeno Krovel, executive]

[Operator Instructions] Nothing yet. Okay, [ I guess that ] means everything is perfectly clear. Then I guess we'll wrap this up.

Thank you all for attending. And enjoy the rest of your day.

[Trond Straume, executive]

Bye-bye.

[Arnstein Kjesbu, executive]

Bye-bye.

[Trond Straume, executive]

Thank you for your time. Cheers. Bye.

[Jacob Zeno Krovel, executive]

Okay, thank you. Bye-bye.