Var Energi ASA

OSE:VAR

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Operator]

Welcome to Var Energi's Q1 presentation for 2024. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded.I'll now turn the call over to Head of Investor Relations, Ida Marie Fjellheim. Ida, please go ahead.

[Ida Fjellheim, executive]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to Var Energi's First Quarter 2024 Results.The presentation today will be given by our CEO, Nick Walker and our CFO, Stefano Pujatti. Nick and Stefano will present the results and afterwards, we will open up for Q&A.I will now give the word to Nick.

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Good morning and thank you, Ida. Good morning to you, all, and a warm welcome to our first quarter 2024 results presentation.This is the first quarter where you will see the impact of the value-accretive Neptune Energy Norge acquisition in the results, which we're consolidating from the 1 January. I'm pleased to report a quarter with record high production and strong financial results. We continue to provide material dividend distribution, and we're making good progress on our plan to deliver high growth and value creation.Now let us look at the highlights for the quarter. We delivered good operational performance with record production in the quarter of 299,000 barrels a day, up 33% from the previous quarter. This growth is driven by a full quarter of Breidablikk, which is producing strongly at plateau levels and inclusion of the Neptune Energy Norge assets from the 1 January.On the back of good operational performance, we continued to deliver strong financial results. Our gas sales strategy continues to realize above-market prices with a gas price of $67 per BOE, which was $14 above spot. Production costs beat guidance with $12 per barrel in the quarter. We delivered strong cash flow from operations post-tax for the quarter of $1 billion, and we maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet even after paying for the Neptune acquisition.Var Energi is one of the fastest growing E&Ps, and we're making good progress towards our target of producing around 400,000 barrels a day by the end of 2025 and unlocking future value beyond that. We're maintaining targeted start-ups for both the Johan Castberg and Balder X projects in Q4 this year. Our portfolio of 8 projects in development and starting up before the end of 2025, 7 of those are more than 50% complete. And we recently announced a discovery at Ringhorne North in the Balder Area.And lastly, we continue to deliver attractive and predictable shareholder distributions. We confirm a dividend for the first quarter of $0.11 per share, in line with guidance, which is to be distributed in May. And we're providing Q2 2024 dividend guidance of $270 million, the same as for the Q1 payout, and reconfirming our full-year dividend distribution guidance of approximately 30% of CFFO after tax. So, strong results for the quarter all round.We're the fastest growing E&P, the third largest oil and gas producer in Norway, and the second largest exporter of gas from Norway to Europe. A large diversified portfolio with interest in over 50% of all producing fields and associated infrastructure on the NCS and around 200 exploration licenses, provides lots of optionality and growth opportunities, which we're working to move forward at pace.As we've previously stated, the Neptune transaction was the perfect fit, adding scale, diversification and longevity. And as we previously guided, we expect to yield significant synergies from the transaction of around $500 million post-tax over time. And now that we've closed the deal, we're moving quickly to deliver this value. We're also making good progress on integrating Neptune Energy Norge into Var Energi. We've aligned the two teams and from the 1 May, we'll be working as one team, pulling together to deliver on our strategy and goals. We've renamed Neptune Energy Norge as Var Energi Norge, and will combine the company with Var Energi through a statutory merger, with completion of this anticipated second quarter this year.Turning now to production. Q1 came in ahead of guidance at 299,000 barrels a day, with gas making up 37% of the production mix. Quarterly production was 33% above the fourth quarter of 2023. This is due to a full quarter of Breidablikk production, which came online towards the end of last year and is producing strongly at plateau levels, and also the inclusion of the Neptune assets from the 1 January. We also saw strong production efficiency from our operated assets, averaging 93% in the quarter.Turnarounds will impact the second and third quarters and then you will see growth from our major projects, Johan Castberg and Balder X, both targeting start-up in the fourth quarter. Additionally, we have 3 further projects to start up during the year and also a significant portfolio of infill wells being completed. So, we've got off to a great start to the year and are firmly on track to meet our full-year guidance range of 280,000 to 300,000 barrels a day.Looking now at our longer-term growth outlook. We're set for significant production growth from today's level of 300,000 barrels a day. 8 new projects in development, with the main ones being Boulder X and Johan Kasberg, will add significant volumes. We'll also dispose of some non-core assets to high grade the portfolio, and we're working hard on this. Putting this together means we'll grow to around 400,000 barrels a day by the end of 2025, which we're firmly on track to deliver.And with our quality portfolio that has significant upside, we can then organically sustain production at 350,000 BOEs to 400,000 BOEs per day towards 2030. And we will achieve this through, firstly, maximizing recovery and infill drilling at our high-quality assets, with drilling adding 30,000 to 45,000 barrels a day over the period. Secondly, by moving at pace, our portfolio of over 20 early phase projects towards sanction and also drilling out our exciting near-field and high-impact exploration program. This will deliver sustainable production towards 2030.Responsible operations are key to our license to operate, and we aim to be the safest operator. Overall, we've a good safety trend. However, during the quarter, we had 1 incident classified as serious resulting from an individual falling on ice, which we will learn from. Our belief is that it is important to position the company for the energy transition to maintain relevance and investability long term, and we're doing just that and are being recognized for it. We continue to make good progress on emissions reduction. And today, we're already in the top quartile of industry performance.We have a clear path to over 50% operational emissions reduction from our portfolio by 2030. This is driven by a focus on investments in reducing emissions and electrification of our key assets. And during the quarter, the Sleipner field center, along with the Gudrun platform, started receiving power from shore. We are involved in 5 electrification projects. And by 2030, our aim is around 70% of our production will be electrified. And on methane emissions, they're already today below the net zero classification. We've become a member of the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership, which aims to improve methane emissions reporting. And finally, the recent inclusion of Var Energi in the Oslo Stock Exchange ESG Index is motivating recognition and adds weight to our commitment to take a leading ESG position.And now on production costs. We beat guidance with $12 per barrel in the quarter compared to a full-year guidance of $13.5 to $14.5 per barrel. This performance is driven by the strong production results, reduced costs and a favorable NOK exchange rate. Longer term, our target is to reduce unit OpEx to around $10 per barrel by the end of 2025, with the main drivers of this being the new projects coming on stream, which have average OpEx of around $4 per barrel, integrating fully the Neptune assets, which have relatively lower OpEx costs, high-grading the portfolio and realizing cost synergies and improvements. And as a company, we have an amazing portfolio with lots of optionality and growth opportunities.You can see here our 2P reserves stand at 1.24 billion barrels. 10 projects will come on stream over the next few years, which underpins our growth profile. Our continued resources, as you can see, here are at 750 million barrels. These are discovered resources, but where there is no committed development projects. And we've identified over 20 early phase projects that we are progressing. It is targeted around 60% of our contingent resources, and we're working to define further projects. You should start to see some projects sanctioned in the first half of next year. And we have an exciting exploration portfolio of over 1 billion barrels of net risked resources, where we'll drill around 60 wells over the next 4 years. Putting all that together, we have over 3 billion barrels of resource potential in the portfolio, and it is this that will organically sustain our production towards 2030.Looking now at our quality project portfolio, which is key to delivering on our growth targets. We have 10 remaining projects in execution, which unlocked more than 400 million barrels of net reserves. We are well into execution with 7 of the 10 projects more than 50% complete, so the risks are largely behind us. Let me remind you that most of these projects are subsea tiebacks. This means more standardized concepts, less complexity and more predictable delivery. This project portfolio drives our growth trajectory and create significant value, which you can see with breakevens of around $35 per barrel.And turning now to our 2 large projects. The Jotun FPSO is a key enabler to continue to deliver future value in the Balder Area. This project unlocks gross production of 80,000 BOEs per day, and with low operating costs of around $5 per barrel. The status of the project is that Balder, Jotun FPSO is now around 95% complete. The other elements of the project, drilling and subsea facilities are progressing on plan. And actions taken at the FPSO over recent months to increase the pace of the remaining construction and commissioning work has yielded results, with overall progress only slightly behind the revised plan and completion of the project is in sight.Targeted start-up is maintained in the fourth quarter of 2024 based on inshore sail away in August. As we discussed with the 2023 full-year results in February, risk remains if completion of the planned work and weather conditions will not allow offshore installation activities in the autumn of this year. And in this scenario, the P90 start-up is by the end of Q2 2025. We've created flexibility with the FPSO installation arrangements, giving us full optionality on the timing of making the decision on when to install. And if first oil moves to 2025, it will have limited impact on 2024 production. And as the project is nearing completion, this is principally a schedule issue and does not have a material impact on guided costs.However, I want to stress that we're around 95% done on the FPSO, completion is in sight, and we're focused hard on meeting the targeted first oil in the fourth quarter of this year. Our other major project is Johan Castberg. The development is progressing according to schedule, and is firmly on track for targeted start-up in the fourth quarter of 2024. The key focus is final completion of the commissioning of the FPSO, where sail away is planned in the summer ahead of offshore installation. All subsea installations are complete and drilling activities are going to schedule, with 12 of the 15 development wells planned for start-up already completed.Johan Castberg is a key catalyst for Var Energi's growth profile. And you can see here, plateau production from the field is around 190,000 BOEs per day gross and Var Energi's net share being around 55,000 barrels a day. And these are high-value barrels with OpEx of around $4 per barrel and breakeven economics of about $35. We also see further upside from extending the plateau through infill drilling and area tiebacks, where further phases of the developments are being planned, these being Cluster 1 and Cluster 2. And we'll be drilling the Snorre exploration well later this quarter.And now focusing on our exploration program. To remind you, this year, we are planning 16 exploration wells. And you can see targeting net risked resources of around 150 million barrels and for a total spend of around $300 million. And these wells are spread through our 4 hub areas and all but 2 wells are step-out opportunities from existing infrastructure. So far this year, we've drilled 3 exploration wells with one success at Ringhorne North in the Balder Area, which has gross recoverable resources, as you can see, up to 23 million barrels.And in addition to unlocking new resources and improving the northern extension of the Ring home field, the Ringhorne North discovery also de-risks more drillable prospects in the area and also opens up potential development synergies with nearby Var Energi operated discoveries, such as King and Prince and Evra-Iving. So the Balder Area is much more than just the Balder X project. We're ramping up exploration activity this quarter, with 6 wells planned, [ Teresa] in the Gjoa Area is currently drilling and the high-impact Venus well in the Barents would spud shortly. It's going to be exciting to see the results from this program come in.So, that rounds off my operational update. And I'll now hand over to Stefano to review the financials. Thank you.

[Stefano Pujatti, executive]

Thank you, Nick, and good morning, everybody.Let's deep dive into the key financials for the first quarter and see why Var Energi is a unique combination of value creation, extraordinary growth, predictable and attractive shareholder distribution, underpinned by an investment-grade balance sheet. As Nick mentioned already, this is the first quarter where we consolidated the former Neptune Norway since January 1, 2024. We generated solid revenues and operating cash flow after tax of $1 billion in Q1 on the back of good oil and gas price realizations and strong production. Our balance sheet remains solid, following the Neptune acquisition with a leverage ratio at 0.7x net debt to EBITDAX and $2.3 billion in cash and undrawn facilities. We confirmed the first quarter dividend of $270 million and plan to pay another $270 million for the second quarter of 2024.I will now go into more details of our first quarter financial performance. We generated more than $1.9 billion of revenues, up $257 million versus previous quarter and not materially below the Q1 2023, which had extremely higher gas prices, mainly due to higher volumes. We also continued to deliver resilient price realizations and in particular, to be a top performer, especially on gas price, where we had a price realization of around $67 per barrel, which represents a premium of $14 per barrel compared to spot. The realized price for oil in the quarter was $84 per barrel, slightly above Brent. We were also in the money for gas hedging related to Neptune volumes, which provided an extra $5 million in the first quarter.Taking a closer look at the gas sales in Q1, around 53% of the sales were on day-ahead basis at $52 per barrel, around 31% was sold on a month-ahead basis at $59 per barrel. The remaining 16% were delivered under contracts, with fixed pricing realizing on average $134 per barrel. Going forward, what can we expect? Continue to have a robust asset portfolio with access to several markets, and we will have flexibility in the contracts to decide the split between month ahead, day ahead, quarter ahead and fixed contracts. For the next 2 quarters, we will continue to have fixed price sales representing around 16%, 18% of the gas sales for around $130 per barrel.Starting from the fourth quarter, the fixed price exposure will decrease to around 4%. And this is because upon time of nomination for the gas year ahead, we assess the forward curve to be undervalued. We have, therefore, chosen to keep our position open and plan to, when the time is right, to use other instruments like fixed price or quarter ahead to catch window of opportunities when they arise, allowing us to keep maintaining robust pricing for our volumes also for the coming gas year.From Q4 going forward, we will also be able to include the Neptune gas in our short- and long-term contracts, which will offer increased flexibility and opportunities to realize additional value. I would also like to mention that our oil production is fully hedged on a post-tax basis for 2024, including Neptune volumes with monthly put option at a strike price of $50 Brent. And we plan to continue the program going forward also in 2025, where actually we have already covered post-tax production until end of Q1 2025.Cash flow from operations in the quarter was $1 billion, higher by $152 million compared to the fourth quarter, mainly due to higher revenues. Our CapEx for the quarter is $694 million, where Balder X and Johan Castberg remained the largest contributor of the total spend and will be main contributors to the 400,000 barrels a day by end of 2025 target. The strong operating cash flow covered the company CapEx with good margin, The CFFO to CapEx coverage was 1.5 in the quarter.Our resilient and strong liquidity position continued following the Neptune acquisition. Here, we see the development in our cash position from Q4 to the end of the first quarter. We generated $1 billion after tax and working capital movements, an increase of $150 million from the last quarter. We further had a cash outflow of $2 billion related to the acquisition of Neptune and investments in our high-value growth projects. The net cash inflow from financing activities was $1.3 billion related to drawdown of the working capital revolving credit facility. We also distributed, as planned, $270 million in dividends to our shareholders.In summary, the cash position at the end of the year stood at $722 million, and our available liquidity was at $2.3 billion at the end of Q1, including the payment of the consideration for Neptune compared to $3.7 billion in the previous quarter. The leverage ratio, net interest-bearing debt to EBITDAX ended at 0.7x at the end of the quarter, following the payment of Neptune. This is up from previous quarter, but still well below our over-the-cycle target of 1.3x.Our debt portfolio is strong and diversified with a weighted average time to maturity at 5.5 years when excluding the 60-year hybrid. This is supporting the execution of our growth strategy towards end of 2025 and beyond. Our Baa3 rating from Moody's and our BBB rating from S&P were reconfirmed in 2023, both with a stable outlook, and we are committed to maintain our investment-grade rating. The strong financial position lays a solid foundation for continued material shareholder distribution and growth, and this is a unique investment proposition that Var Energi offers.Now, let's look at the tax guidance for this year. In Q1, we paid approximately NOK 5 billion in cash taxes. And for the next quarter, we have 2 tax installments amounting to around NOK 10 billion. At midyear, we will update the tax estimates for 2024. And in the second half of this year, we will be paying approximately 50% of the 2024 estimated profits. We have included a tax sensitivity for the second half of 2024, which is giving the cash tax estimates at different price scenarios with Neptune included since January 1.Var Energi has a strong track record of delivering value to our shareholders. Since the IPO, we have returned around $2.2 billion in dividend. And over the last 8 quarters, we have paid a stable dividend of around $250 million, $300 million. And our strong and resilient financial performance in the first quarter of 2024 continues to support attractive and predictable dividends. We confirmed $270 million in dividend for the first quarter, which is equal to $0.11 per share to be paid on the 8th of May.The dividend guidance for the second quarter of 2024 is $270 million, despite a continued volatile commodity price environment, showing the commitment and resilience of the company to attractive shareholder distributions. We maintain our dividend policy of 20% to 30% of the CFFO after tax going forward, but with 2024 being in the higher range at approximately 30% of the CFFO post-tax. To sum up, we are well positioned to deliver on our growth and sustained value creation, and we will continue to pay attractive and predictable dividends in the years to come.Finally, I will summarize our key 2024 and long-term guidance. For 2024, our production guidance is 280,000-300,000 barrels a day, which will increase to 400,000 barrels a day by end of 2025. Further, we have ambition to sustain 350,000-400,000 barrels a day until 2030. Production cost in a range between $13.5-$14.5 per barrel, with a target to bring it down towards 10% by end of 2025. CapEx in a range between $2.7 billion-$2.9 billion in 2024, going down to $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion thereafter. Cash tax payments of approximately $1 billion in the second quarter, and dividends of $270 million for Q1 2024 and $270 million guidance for Q2. And we expect to pay out approximately 30% of the CFFO after tax in dividends for 2024.With that, I hand it back to Nick for concluding remarks.

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Well, thank you, Stefano.And I have just one final slide to summarize. We're delivering on our strategy for growth and value creation. In the quarter, we delivered good operational performance, and we're on track to meet our targets for this year. And on the back of this operational performance and supported by good realized prices, we continue to deliver strong financial results. And we maintain a strong investment-grade balance sheet even after paying for the Neptune acquisition.We're also on track to meet our target of around 400,000 barrels a day by the end of 2025. And today, we're already producing 300,000 barrels a day. And we have a high-quality portfolio with significant growth opportunities, which can organically sustain production at 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day towards 2030. And we're working at pace to move forward our large portfolio of early phase projects to deliver on this target. And then lastly, we continue to provide attractive and predictable shareholder distributions. So, those are our first quarter 2024 results.Thank you for your time, and we'd now like to open up the call for your questions. And over to the operator.

[Ida Fjellheim, executive]

As we wait for the operator to come on, we'll take a few questions in writing that's come in. We will start with a question from Jorgen Bruaset at Nordea.Where do you see Q1 exit production, i.e., going into Q2? Does the CMD production guidance of Q2 above Q1 still stand?The second question is relating to OpEx. You are guiding $13.5 a barrel cost as the bottom of the unit cost range stacked against 300,000 barrels in the high end of volume guidance. In Q1, you delivered cost of $12 a barrel on approximately 300,000 barrels a day. Any particular reason such as product asset mix, why the full year would carry higher significant cost on similar volumes as in Q1?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Okay. So, I'll take the first question and then Stefano can answer the operating cost question. In terms of Q2 and future quarters, we provide in the slide pack that we went through an outlook for production and the ranges that we see. And what I said in my notes is that we -- in quarter 2 and quarter 3, we have turnarounds. And a majority of it is in the third quarter, but we also start to see some in the second quarter. So, that will have a slight -- an impact on how we will perform in the second quarter. So -- and then when we get back to fourth quarter, we're through the turnaround period and then we start to see some of the impact of the new projects coming in. So, that's how we would look at production going forward. But it's fair to say we've had a strong first quarter, and there's ranges around all of this. So, let's see how it goes looking forward. And I just want to restress that we are firmly on track to meet our guidance range of 280,000 to 300,000 barrels a day.And so with that, maybe, Stefano, you can tackle the OpEx question.

[Stefano Pujatti, executive]

Sure. Thanks. So let's say, in Q1, we had a very strong production, low cost, not turnaround. This is the reason why we came in with this very good metric on OpEx per barrel. Now going forward, as Nick mentioned, there will be turnarounds in the following quarters. And this, of course, will lower the production. And we also have an additional element, which is the Neptune contribution. And we were quite open on the fact that the Neptune is essentially decreasing roughly $1 per barrel on the OpEx of the Var -- of the former Var, let's say, before the consolidation. But this was already taken into account when we provided the guidance of $13.5 and $14.5.Another element, I would say that is important to mention is the exchange rate that we used when we gave the guidance of the dollar-NOK, where we actually were assuming 10. Now, of course, we are higher than that. So, we are almost at 11. And that is, of course, helping the metric of the OpEx per barrel. So let's say, with current NOK-dollar, if this will remain throughout the year, we will definitely stand good chances to end in the lower range of the guidance. But what I think is very important to say is that we are trending in the right direction.

[Operator]

We will now continue with questions from dial-in. [Operator Instructions] The first question will be from the line of John Olaisen from ABG.

[John Olaisen, analyst]

Congrats for a good quarter. I wonder a little bit about the synergy effects with Neptune. I think you mentioned $500 million. Could you just remind us, please, where should it come from and when should we expect to see it? And where do we expect to see it? Is it unit OpEx? Is it -- yes, basically, when and where should we see it? A little bit more detail where the synergies be achieved, please?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Stefano, do you wish to take this one?

[Stefano Pujatti, executive]

Yes. Sure. So we increased, as you correctly say, from -- to $500 million from the previous $300 million. So, that was the first good news. I would say the synergies are mainly related 2/3 on the operational aspects, on the exploration, development of the new projects, exploration discoveries that will be put as future projects and 1/3 roughly from, let's say, a financial and commercial aspect.Let me say, in terms of timing, I think it's important to state that so far, we have already realized around 10% of these synergies, which is, I would say, a positive given the fact that we have completed at the end of January, the transaction, and we are at the end of April. Where are these, let's say, synergies coming from that we realized so quickly? Mainly, I would say, the tax synergies because we had -- they had some -- on the onshore regime, they had some tax losses that we were able to utilize. There is the insurance, for example, because we were able to transfer the insurance package of the Neptune activities within our own. And of course, being a bigger company, we have more access and more capacity in the insurance market.Another example is the fact that Neptune earlier was counting on a lot of services that were centralized in the London office, like treasury management, commercial and others, ICT. And all these are actually currently within Var Energi. So, we don't need those services and therefore, we don't get the charges for it. Another big element, which is a short-term gain that I can mention on the synergies is -- will happen starting from Q4 of this year because at that point in time, we will be able to include the gas sales contracts within our long-term contracts. And there, we have a lot of flexibility on delivery points, a lot of flexibility on the indexations that you can use to sell. So, we've been quite active in making sure to realize the synergies as soon as possible. Of course, a big chunk will come when we will mature the projects and the developments and the exploration discoveries in the portfolio.

[John Olaisen, analyst]

Okay. If I may ask a quick second question. There is -- I would have guessed that with the Neptune acquisition, there could potentially be some portfolio optimization. And there is some talk in the market that you have a package of non-core assets out for sale. Is that something you could comment on, please?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Yes. Perhaps I'll take that. We were very clear when we announced the acquisition and ever since that we're going to dispose of some non-core assets. Not related to the transaction, we did dispose of our Brage asset at the end of last year, and we're actively working on a package. This is non-core. It's late life. It's little upside and not strategic for us, and we've made it clear. And we'll announce it to the market when we've done something. In terms of our 400,000 barrels a day at the end of next year, that includes the assumption that we would dispose of a package at some point. So, you'll hear more when we're ready to talk about it.

[Operator]

The next question will be from the line of Lydia Rainforth from Barclays.

[Lydia Rainforth, analyst]

A couple of questions, if I could. And sorry, the phone line cut out a little bit. So, I think I might have missed something. But just on the Neptune acquisition, the price paid, the $1.3 billion recorded for the quarter versus the [ $1.2 billion ]. Was that -- so the cash flow was lower than expected from Neptune for January? I'm just trying to make sure I understand fully where that difference came from? And then just talking through the integration that you're having on the Neptune side and how you're finding everybody's coming together?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

So, Stefano, you get the first and I'll take the second, I think.

[Stefano Pujatti, executive]

Yes. Sure. Lydia, so let me say the consolidation was from 1 January, 2024, but the cash consideration that we communicated was $1.2 billion because that was the closing at 31 January. However, as we are consolidating from 1 January, we essentially displayed in the financial accounts, the $1.3 billion. And the difference is basically the cash generated in January in Neptune from the purchase price, but it's only a technicality, right? Because the effective, let's say, cash out was the $1.2 billion that we communicated. Then as we did an accounting restatement from January 1, then, of course, we also -- let's say, the number becomes $1.3 billion. But then you have in January, then we are consolidating the revenues, cost and CapEx. So, it's really a technicality due to the accounting consolidation from January 1.

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

And hopefully, that answers that question, Lydia. And in terms of integration, it's a good question. And I think that's really, for me, 4 elements about the integration and we're -- having closed the transaction in January, we've been working hard on this. Of course, we planned quite a bit beforehand and now we're implementing. I think the major thing is, for me, is to put the organizations together as one team pulling together. I think results are delivered by people. And if we can have one team pulling together to deliver on the outcomes as quickly as possible, that's what we've been focused on. And we've got very high-quality people on our side, and the Neptune transaction added another group of extremely motivated and capable people. And we've been putting that together as one organization. We've now announced internally our new organization and leadership. And as of 1 May, we'll be working as one team on our business. We think is a big step, but of course, there's a lot of work to do beyond that.I think the second piece of this is about the corporate integration, which I mentioned in my comments is that we're going to merge the Neptune company into Var Energi, and that process is well underway. And I think we'll likely close in the -- towards the end of the second -- this quarter. The third piece is about systems and process integration, and that will take some time longer. But I just see that as a process. And then I think the fourth element for me is around realizing the value synergies of $500 million post-tax. And as Stefano just commented on a previous question, I think we're well underway in making that happen and have a clearer understanding of how we're going to deliver it all. And I think I feel good about delivering on the $500 million of value creation here.So hopefully, that answers your question around that, Lydia.

[Operator]

The next question will be from the line of Sasikanth Chilukuru from Morgan Stanley.

[Sasikanth Chilukuru, analyst]

I have 2, please. The first one was on Goliat. It's been highlighted, production is expected to commence from a new infill oil producer well in the second quarter. I was just wondering what we should be expecting from that? Should we expect any meaningful increase in Goliat production and/or better production efficiencies. Just staying with Goliat, I was just wondering if you could highlight the progress made towards the FID of the Goliat gas project expected later this year.The second one was a slight clarification on Balder X. You highlighted that the Jotun FPSO is slightly behind the revised schedule. I was just wondering what schedule was this referring to? Is it the schedule that would lead to the inshore delivery in August? [ That would be helpful ].

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Good questions. In terms of Goliat, we have recently drilled an infill well. It was a sidetrack of an existing production well. And it is being finished, but it's not yet online. So it's a bit early to say what it's going to do for us. But the results from the drilling side were in line with expectations, and that's factored into our forecast for the year. And we would anticipate continuing to drill infill wells at Goliat going forward, and we have plans for more next year.In terms of Goliat gas project, this is -- today, we reinject all the gas produced at Goliat into the reservoir. But there's an opportunity, if we can produce some of that gas to increase our oil production in the short term. And what we're working on is a project to tie the Goliat gas export into the Snohvit or Melkoya LNG facility. And that's a project we talked about, I think, at our Capital Markets update, and we're aiming to bring that forward for sanction towards the end of this year, and that's our target.And then your third question on Balder X, nothing in terms of our outlook has changed from really how we talked about it at our year-end results and also at our Capital Markets update in mid-March. We -- except for the fact that the FPSO has moved on and as I say, we're around 95% complete, the measures we've taken to improve the performance and delivery are working, but we remain slightly behind the schedule that we set back in last September, which is aligned around an August inshore sail away and Q4 targeted start-up.All of that is still possible, and we're working hard to maintain that and deliver on it. But as we talked about in the last 2 investor meetings that we had in terms of our Q4 results and Capital Markets update, there is some risk to that and we have to get this installed before the winter weather period. And so we have to keep this on schedule, and we have to deliver on it. And should we not meet it before the winter period, then as I commented, our P90 start-up is into Q2 next year. But rest assured, we're focused firmly on trying to deliver this year. I just wish for people to understand where we are as we go along. And I think the good thing is we are making progress. And you can see the end. I mean, we're around 95% complete. So, we just got to keep pushing and that's where we are.Hopefully, that answers the questions.

[Operator]

The next question will be from the line of Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SB1 Markets.

[Teodor Nilsen, analyst]

Two questions from me. You have previously said that you don't sell any -- at the Capital Markets Day, you said that you don't have any gas forward at the current prices at that point in time. I just wonder, at the current gas prices, are you doing any forward sales?Second question is on Breidablikk, which successfully has ramped up the plateau. I wonder what should we expect in terms of duration of that plateau and what is implied in your 2024 production guidance?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Good. Maybe I'll try and capture those and maybe if Stefano wants to step in. We aren't selling forward gas. We sell under our long-term contracts and Stefano went through that in the presentation. So, that's how we look at that. In terms of Breidablikk, this came online at the end of last year, and it's fair to say this is performing very well. It's on plateau. And I think the feedback at the moment is that this is producing ahead of expectations in terms of well performance. So, that's good.We haven't finished development drilling actually, and it's due to start up again in the next little while and the wells will be drilled through this year. So, there's still some more drilling to go. So, one would expect it to stay on plateau through this year. And performance, let's see how performance goes and how long it goes for. So, I think so far, so good. Breidablikk is performing extremely well.Hopefully, Teodor, that answers your questions.

[Operator]

As no one else has lined up for questions in this call, I will now hand it back to Ida for any written questions.

[Ida Fjellheim, executive]

We've got 2 questions here from Christoffer Bachke at Clarksons.Now that you're maintaining guidance on first oil from both Balder X and Johan Castberg for Q4 this year, what does it mean for the production in 2024?Second question is regarding M&A. Now that the Neptune acquisition has closed, are you looking for more growth in the North Sea? Or are you mainly focusing on exploration?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

So in terms of both of those questions, this year's production, we've guided and we've provided an outlook. And the guidance is based on both Balder X and Castberg coming online in Q4, and we provide a range of outcomes. And that's what's reflected in our 280,000 to 300,000 barrels a day for production this year. And as we look into next year, we haven't guided 2025 production, but what we've said is that we will achieve 400,000 barrels a day by the end of 2025. And I think we are strongly on track for delivering all of that. Of course, there's a range of outcomes in terms of how quickly both those 2 projects ramp up, but we expect them to reach plateau and stability over a couple of quarters. But that's sort of how we look at it.In terms of sort of growth going forward, as I set out in my notes or comments, we have a very big organic opportunity to sustain production at 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day out towards 2030. That's driven by turning our significant contingent resource base into projects and to production, and we're working hard on that. We also have a material exploration portfolio, which actually doesn't need to deliver to deliver the 350,000 to 400,000 barrels a day, but can augment that. And we're going to drill out that portfolio, and I'm excited by the outlook.And in terms of acquisitions, we see that we can organically sustain production at 350,000 to 400,000 out to 2030. And if we can find acquisition opportunities that's a strategic fit for us and we can do at the right price, again, focused in Norway, then we have the capacity to do it and the desire to do it. So, I think that's how we see growth looking forward. So hopefully, that answers your questions.

[Ida Fjellheim, executive]

Next question is from Ruben at Jefferies.It looks like roughly 1/3 of the 400,000 barrels per day by end 2025 comes from 8 new projects. Are there a few projects which dominate production contribution?

[Nicholas Walker, executive]

Yes, no, it's a good question, Ruben. And we have a number of projects. And so the 2 big ones, as we've talked about, one has 55,000 barrels a day to us, which is Castberg. And at Balder, we get just over 70,000 barrels a day from that project. But we have 6 other projects coming online. And they're all subsea tiebacks and together, they add about 35,000 barrels a day at peak rate. And so that will come online over a period of time. And so they're all tiebacks into existing facilities where we have varying interests. So hopefully, that answers that question.

[Ida Fjellheim, executive]

Thank you. That actually concludes the Q&A session and the call for the Q1 2024 for Var Energi. Thank you to everyone that's dialed-in. And we wish you a good rest of your day.