Tomra Systems ASA
OSE:TOM
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Tomra Systems ASA
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Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, from Asker in Norway. My name is Stefan Ranstrand. I'm the President and CEO of the TOMRA Group. Next to me is Espen Gundersen. Our CFO. Today, we are having the pleasure to report our third quarter 2020 results. Highlights from the quarter. A strong quarter, the best ever, both in terms of revenues and earnings. Our revenues for the group grew with 3% and ended at NOK 2.6 billion. We had an increase in Sorting Solutions, while slight down in Collection Solutions, almost flat here. Improving gross margins. Good control of operating expenses together contributed to that earnings growth to NOK 500 million. Cash flow is fairly similar to last year. So that's the result part of it. On the market side, we have seen good stability in Collection Solutions. We still observe uncertainties, COVID-related, in the Sorting Solutions. We will talk more about that shortly. We also, given the proxy that General Assembly have given to the Board of Directors to decide about the dividend. We have also decided -- the Board has decided to execute on dividend payment of NOK 2.75 per share, which will be paid out in the fourth quarter. Let me go down and talk a little bit about the businesses. Starting with Collection Solutions. In general, we can say that Collection Solutions is predominantly serving the retail market, collecting bottles at retailers. That's the majority of our installations. Across the board, that segment has been very stable. Whilst we have seen people consume less food in restaurants and other food services, people have continued to eat as before. And in consequence, they have gone more to retailers. So in many parts of the world, retail have experienced an increase in volume in revenues. And also, we have seen in many parts of the world a strong increase in beverage consumption. So these are 2 elements that contributes to gain stability and a good market landscape for Collection Solutions. If I go down to the geographical markets, Europe has been, I dare to say, very solid. In Northern Europe, very strong situation. And more business as usual in Central Europe. North America was affected by the corona situation in a different way. And we have to remember that in North America, we have about 50% of the installed base on what we call throughput lease. I'll come back to that shortly describing the graph we have about. In Australia, which we entered in the last years, we have seen also a small hiccup in the second quarter, but that's back to normal. And actually, we are experiencing a slight growth in the region. If I now turn to the graph, which you have on the top left, you can see a dark blue line that represents the European market. So if you look at that over time here, it's a steady business, so really business as usual. If we go into the light blue one, that is representing North America. As I said, about 50% of the installed base is on throughput list here, meaning that we own, we install equipment and we get paid for every time the machine is utilized. In other words, every time a bottle is being returned. In many parts in North America due to coronavirus regulators closed down, forced us to close down, the redemption centers where we have our machines. And consequently, people could not return the bottles and cans. When that was opening up again, which we saw then in -- still in the second quarter, we could see a slight above normal volume and that is probably the result of that people had stored bottles in garages and storage spaces and then wanted to return them. But we see that in the totality and especially if we think of many consumers living in smaller compartments -- apartment, sorry, in cities like New York City, they don't have that opportunity, so these volumes have been lost into other waste streams. After it's all normalized, we are now more or less on the same level as last year, so getting back to a normal situation. Australia also had a dip, very short one. We can see here not such a wide outbreak of the corona, but definitely, we saw the results and afterwards it returned to normal and the normal for Australia is a slight growth year-on-year since we are still in a buildup phase here. So that is the situation. We can learn from this. We can see that we were able to address the situation. Actually, the team has done a fantastic job in that regard. I would like to address the TOMRA culture and the TOMRA people. I'm very proud of them, so they have addressed that very nicely. And we are back to normal here. However, we should also remember that would we have another serious corona outbreak and regulators imposing close downs, we will see more effect. So that's an uncertainty, which goes with us going forward. But we are ready to handle the situation. We have learnt from the first outbreak, so I think we would definitely be in a good position to handle it going forward as well. Then I would like to talk about some new markets. I'm very proud to announce that on the 1st of October, we went live in Western Australia. Until now, we have had installations in -- recent installations in New South Wales and in Queensland. And now Western Australia also opened up the system. It was a bit of a challenge because we had planned to have people from the more experienced markets, like in New South Wales, traveling over to Western Australia to support in the buildup. That was partly not possible because of the travel restrictions, so we really had to do it with a local team and with remote assistance. And they made a fantastic job. On the day, all our installations -- it's only 5 installations, it's a smaller market and we've got a smaller share of that market, which we have communicated earlier, but they were flawless, making us very, very proud. The team has done a fantastic job there. And we were, again, as TOMRA demonstrating quality, capability and execution power. We stood out in that regard and we got a lot of positive feedback for that successful launch. So we are up and running now in also Western Australia. That's really a good development for us. Further to that, we can note that the Netherlands, which have been working on the deposit extension have decided that they will also include small plastic bottles into the system that has been announced before. And we expect that system to go live -- that expansion to go live July 2021. So in consequence, we are now a little bit in a wait and see situation to see how that will execute, how the retailers will implement such a system expansion but we are well positioned in there. We have a local team since years with sales and service, even some local manufacturing. So we are very well positioned to serve the market and we are looking forward eagerly to do so. Also, a small addition, but every addition is meaningful. And this one, in particular, it's Latvia. It's geographically close to Estonia and Lithuania, where we are since years. So this market is expected to go live February 2022. And it's a smaller market, but still, I think we are very keen to serve that opportunity as well. So that is now under development. And I think in the sum, Collection Solution, we -- I see it as a business as usual, really going through the corona situation. And given that Collection Solutions stands for round number 50% of TOMRA's -- it's a very -- TOMRA's revenue and TOMRA's business, it's a very good foundation for us as a group to have this stability and support for our overall business. Going forward, talking about food. And we are active in -- we say -- we call it -- we have labeled it into 2 areas. One is the process sector where food is being processed into french fries and other type of processed food. That's quite a big part of the food portfolio. And then we have the fresh sector, where we work with fresh food, berries and different categories like that. We have experienced good momentum in the fresh food sector with growth in the year and continuous good market outlook. Whilst the processed food have been a bit challenged and still is very and much due to the situation that our biggest market, North America and Europe, are challenged in the foodservice sector. We call it the HORECA, hotel restaurant catering. And in the United States of America, that sector makes up about 50% of revenues. Whilst in Europe, it makes up to about 40% of the total food consumption, so to say, or food spend. So when these sectors are struggling, consequently, the industry is struggling and there is an uncertainty for sure in the industry. I am confident that we have been able to, at the minimum, maintain our market position in this period and maybe outgrow the market slightly in fresh food. I don't have hard evidence for that but I indicated this earlier. So the food has shown good stability, good resilience. But again, we have a sector of process. And that also gives a bit of a cautiousness when we think ahead of order intake. We like to just remain cautious on that side. We have experienced good revenues growth and earnings growth in food in this quarter. But Espen will come back and talk about the numbers later on, but we are on a good trajectory with our food business. Going over to Recycling and Mining. Also here, a mixed picture. We have, in the recent years, experienced a strong growth in both these sectors. But in this year, we have now experienced, due to volatility and pricing of commodities, also structural changes in the market, we have experienced a bit of uncertainty. We see still a strong situation, market robustness in the waste sorting and the recycling of high-quality PET and they make up the majority of our markets. So that's good, whilst we see a slower momentum in the metal recycling and in mining. And I think predominantly, this is stemming back to the volatility and uncertainty around commodity prices, which clearly affects our customers' business. On the right-hand side, you can see a graph showing the price levels for PET, which is the virgin PET and recycled PET. And you can see since the beginning of 2019, rPET, which we call it, is having a premium in the market. And that clearly comes from the commitment from the brand owners. In this case, I think we can say the beverage industry that really are working on their plans, their strategy is to execute sustainable packaging. They basically want to get hold of every bottle that is recycled and use them for new bottles. And of course, that affects TOMRA twofold, both for the Collection and for the Sorting business. And we don't see that this situation will change. So the more bottles we can collect, the more we will have to sort and the market is there. And there's still a long way to go until we could satisfy the demands in that market. So that's where we are on that. Also worth noting is that European Union are close to finalizing the European Plastic Tax Proposal, which is a very important signal from European Union that they want the producers to take responsibility. They want to drive for circularity and they want producers to take responsibility. And it's very sizable. They are talking about imposing a tax of EUR 800 per ton. And if you then think that plastics typically trade, virgin plastics trade, at levels between EUR 5 per tonne, up to EUR 1,500 per tonne, you can recognize that EUR 800 is a massive impact. And we don't know exactly how this will be implemented. So we just want to share the information with you here, but it would definitely send a signal to the industry that the regulators demand them to do something. And if they do nothing, there will be costs on their system. And if they, however, are able to recycle, they will get free from this levy. And this is, again, in combination with a single-use plastic directive, the European Union is really demonstrating strength and a strategic direction where they say, we want a circular economy in Europe. And that is very nice in the eyes of TOMRA, also very much because we are strategically very well positioned and very determined to position TOMRA as a leader in the circular economy -- growing circular economy industry. And as an example for that, last year, we actually built up a separate division, which we call TOMRA Circular Economy, where we have experts and we are working intensely now on developing solutions and credible business in that area. And we have come quite a good way, but that is something we should talk about more at a later stage. For now, I really like to talk to you a little bit on what we see here in this graph. And that's a recent study made by Pew Charitable Trusts and SYSTEMIQ, which really demonstrates the situation of plastic and especially focus on the plastic in the ocean. The study says that they expect a tripling of the plastic into the ocean by 2040 unless we do something about it. So basically going from today's levels of round number 11 million tonnes per year ending up in the ocean, up to 30 -- 29 million tonnes by 2040. So there is a critical urgency here to do something and that's what they're pointing out. They're also saying that the present commitments and framework laid out by governments and industry will only contribute to reducing the plastic into the ocean by 7% by 2040, so there is a need to do more. They say that there's not one single solution that will solve this. You have to work both upstream and downstream to resolve the problem. Further, they say that -- sorry, I have to change page here. There are solutions available today that could reduce the flow into the ocean by 80%, so it's possible to do it. But it requires sharp actions and regulations. And maybe we can also link that to we saw what the European Union is doing. They also say that the change is economically viable for government consumers. So it's not a disaster, but we have to do drastic changes. And they say, reducing approximately 80% of plastic leakage into the ocean, we bring life to new circular plastics economy with major opportunities and risks for the industry. So the recycling here will be a very important element. They also talk about reducing consumption of plastic, and there, I am proud also to share with you our newest technical solution where we are now working with a soda stream company on collecting the gas bottles for their solutions. Meaning that people can use the tap water and have carbonated water drinks and other drinks at home. So we are working both on the concept of recycling, that's at the core of what we do and that's a significant part of what SYSTEMIQ and Pew are talking about here, but we are also working on concept for how we can reduce the consumption of new plastic bottles. With that, I intend to hand over to Espen and ask you to take the financials.
Thank you, sir. Yes, as always, let's start with currency. Reporting in the Norwegian krone, in particular, we are exposed to currency fluctuations. And we are also, this quarter, having some tailwind from currencies. The euro is strengthened 8% and the dollar 3% versus same quarter last year. So still positive effect, even though not as high as we had in second quarter, where it was around 15% positive impact from currencies. The P&L, as Stefan said, stable collection performance. So it's Sorting that's contributing to the growth this quarter. Margins are improving, mainly coming from Collection. And as we said during the call for second quarter, we expected flattish, stable development in OpEx and that's also what we're reporting. Currency adjusted, it's slightly down actually versus last year. So it indicates good cost control, but still, we managed to continue to invest when it comes to new initiatives, in particular, the circular economy initiative, which is reported in the group functions. And it's an area where we have cost increase, but this is offset by cost reductions within the divisions. So to summarize, it's all-time high revenues. It's all-time high EBITA. First time above NOK 0.5 billion, and it's also an EBITA margin north of 19%, which we are proud of, so to say, in these times. Looking at Collection. North America -- sorry, Northern Europe are doing good, as Stefan said. North America, there we reported slightly down. The underlying volumes are close to normal. There's some technical change from material recovery, where a contract that previously was booked as a gross contract. Now it's been at holding agreement where we're only collected net so it's adjusted that reduced revenues around NOK 20 million without any bottom line effect, 20 for the quarter. So that it's minor, but it explains a little bit why we see slightly lower locked figures and reported figures for North America. Rest of the world is mainly Australia. Australia is slightly, as Stefan said, some of the markets that report underneath there, mainly old refillable market are slightly down. So currency adjusted is flattish in the rest of the world. So overall, a stable business. Due to good cost control, some mix effects, we also have a strong 45% gross margin in the quarter. And operating expenses is down. Despite that, we continue to invest in what you say, ramp up-related activities, establish ourselves in new markets where we assume deposit is about to materialize, strengthening the central organization. So round figures, we can assume that we -- 10% of the operating expenses is ramp up-related. It's this quarter, as has been also in the previous quarters. Bottom line, NOK 316 million, 25% EBITA margin. In Sorting, we indicated a 70%, 7-0-percent conversion ratio in this quarter, ended up close to 74%. So it's been a good quarter revenues wise. Food has been up, partly offset by recycling going slightly down. But still, in total, a positive top line effect. And if we look at geographies, we have growth in all major geographies. Strong gross margin, slight improvement also here. And cost control, where we have flattish development on OpEx when we adjust for currencies, and then 17% EBITA margin in the segment. Order situation. The order intake was slightly better than we assumed and communicated by the end of last quarter. We said that we believe that order intake will probably be somewhat below second quarter, and we ended up actually slightly above second quarter, but it's down 15% versus the same quarter last year. We have a rather healthy backlog. It's up versus third quarter '19 in Norwegian krone, but flattish currency adjusted. And the conversion ratio, meaning what we believe the revenues will be expressed as a percentage of the order backlog at the end of this quarter is 80% to 85%. As we always say, this is not guiding. We will never send a profit warning if we are outside, but just indicating here when the installations are assumed to take place based upon what we now see going into the fourth quarter. Balance sheet. It's growing, but it's mainly currency you're seeing. So there's really nothing that stands out specifically here. Looking at what we had 1 year ago, the total assets has increased with 8% and that's also what the currency has increased. Receivables are higher, but that's mainly due to seasonality in U.S., and it will go down during fourth quarter as it has done previous 4 quarters also. Cash flow from operations stable from last quarter -- or same quarter last year. Still have a solid balance sheet, 50% equity, rather low gearing. 0.7x interest-bearing debt on EBITA. And as Stefan said, with the current momentum, with the current outlook, with the current performance, with the current balance sheet, liquidity, everything taking into consideration, the Board has decided to pay out NOK 2.75 per share as a dividend with the share going next Monday, 26th of October. So it's not going x today, but on Monday. Yes, more financing. We are privileged in the respect that it's easy to get financing. And for that reason, we have allowed ourselves to have a rather short debt maturity. It's below 2 years now. The revolver, which is expiring next year, the EUR 130 million, that expires in second and fourth quarter 2021, it's about to become short-term debt and it's needed to refinance this one. So we have started the process to replace it with probably EUR 150 million revolver 3-year long, and if it kind of the maturity plan with bonds then in '22 and '24 and the RCF in '23. This process is assumed to be concluded before year-end, and it will add additional unused credit facilities to us compared to where we are today, where we are around NOK 1 billion. But of course, there will be a dividend payment in October that will negatively influence this, but then again, a positive cash flow from fourth quarter will offset most of this. So that's what's happening on the financing side. Segment reporting. We have historically had one segment in TOMRA. And we're not going back 15 years to the Collection business. It was only about reverse vending machines. Then we acquired TITECH, went into waste recycling, extracting metals -- sorry, plastic and paper from midstreams. And it was a start of a journey where CommoDaS we acquired going into metal recycling in 2006. And then in 2010, 2011, Odenburg, best big food companies expanding into that segment and adding on top Compac and BBC the last 3 years. So we have a history of forming, sorting through acquisitions going into the business stream, mainly of recycling and food, but there has been a significant organic growth on top of this. The last 15 years on average, the organic growth in Sorting has been 16%. And food has over the years been a bigger and bigger part of this. And today, it accounts for 60% to 65% of the revenues within the Sorting segment. So the little sister has been the big sister within the sorting family. And Food is now a global organization with more than 1,400 employees. We are present in all geographies or all continents. And if we include agents, we are present in more than 80 countries now. And both to reflect the size and the complexity and to better address the opportunities within this segment should -- will be organized as one division. Michel Picandet has been recruited and now heading up this global organization. He's a very experienced manager with broad experience from companies like Tetra Pak and Sidel, and is now a member of ELT, executive leadership team reporting to Stefan. I don't know, Stefan, do you want to add more into this or is it straightforward?
No, I think it's very good. You should know that TOMRA has a strategic view on 2 major end markets. One is the markets we see within the space of circular economy, where we talk about collection and recycling and that's being shaped up as an end market. So right now, it's not a market per se. But the way we see things are developing, that would be one of the core areas. And therefore, we have positioned ourselves, both with an organization for that and the whole set up what we do in collaboration developments, et cetera. And the second area is Food. And these are 2 mega markets, really gigantic markets. We are #1 in both of them. And in order to remain focused, have the right priorities, set the agility, we see it's very natural to give this transparency but also focus on food. So really nothing changing for us. It's important that we maintain the core strategic elements that we laid out when we built up this sector, that was we wanted to spearhead in technology by being able to have economies of scale, invest more and be leader in technology in the sorting arena. That will not change. We will still have a core R&D that is combined for the 2 different divisions, so Sorting and Recycling, Mining and Sorting, Food and we also leverage the operational side. But all market-related activities like sales, service application, engineering, these are different and that we recognize, and that's really what we want to do here to give even more attention and better service to our customers to even strengthen our leading position from today. So that's all I want to add, Espen.
So you will then see fourth quarter report with 3 segments: the Collection business, the Food and the Recycling/Mining business. And we will also be provided with historical information for the last quarters for comparable reasons, so those of you modeling us out there will be able to receive a separate spreadsheet close to the release of the fourth quarter report where the old figures are restated. Going to the outlook statement. We are in a good shape. TOMRA is maybe not essential business, but our customers are essential businesses. Food retail. They will be there, people eat and drink. Waste management, they will be there. And the food producers, there will be a need. So the underlying momentum in what we are doing is there. And we started the year very good. Just look at the order intake we had in the first quarter, both fourth quarter last year and first quarter this year shows the momentum in what we're doing. And this is still there. But there are some challenges in regions, in segments for periods, that's the COVID situation is creating. So this we have seen in second and third quarter and will continue to be there as a distraction as long as we have this situation. But it hits differently in the different areas. And a large part of TOMRA is not really much influenced at all. At least we managed to deliver and continue business the way we have done previously. If you're looking down to our divisions. In Collection, it's overall business as usual. We have an organization where, for instance, service techs are living close to the machines. You don't need to travel far distances to get there. It's an important machine. Retailers, in general, acknowledge that after their checkout system, the -- RBM is the most important machine in the store. Don't maintaining this machine, don't reinvesting in it, it's a short-sighted strategy because your customers would go other places, meaning the consumers go other places to shop if you don't continue to have this well functioning. So there could be outbreaks of COVID, which is so severe that things can close down as we experienced in Northeast U.S. for a period of time. That is out of our control, but let's say, for those situations, I think overall, the business is as usual in Collection. And in the coming quarters, we will hopefully also see a positive effect from the Dutch expansion as they are moving into or expanding their system, as Stefan talked to. Exactly how much and when is still somewhat uncertain because of the timing of also the can introduction, which is part of the system change down there, which is a little uncertain when and if it materializes. They are going from large bottles to small bottles, that's for sure. That will alone double the volume, and then you have the can opportunity, which comes as an additional opportunity on top of this. In Sorting, there will be regional differences. The Fresh segment, as Stefan said, is going good. We continue to grow good. We assume still some more challenges in the processed segment. But overall, we feel that the momentum is like it has been for the last quarters, and we are optimistic for the opportunities within segment, no doubt about that. And for Recycling/Mining, it's also underlying good momentum. There are areas which have some much more challenges. And that's goes for metal mining, mainly, which you have fluctuations when it comes to commodity prices and more uncertainty. [ Graded PET ], in particular, this is a strong segment still. So we usually don't say so much about the expected order intake. So we should be cautious also this quarter, but with the strong comp figure we have for fourth quarter '19, we must assume that for quarter '20 order intake will be lower, the way it looks today because of this -- some distractions in some areas, but nothing dramatic in that respect. I think that concludes the outlook. As always, remember, currencies that will influence our performance, but you know how this works. So that's probably not important to use more time on. Instead, maybe Stefan, I understand you have an announcement to make. So maybe you can do that at the end.
Yes. Thank you, Espen. I just turned 60. I have now had the privilege to lead TOMRA for the last 10 years, I'm into my 11th year. I'm extremely proud of TOMRA. I think we have a fantastic crew, team. We have a strong culture. We have been able to execute on almost every opportunity we have been given a chance to do on. We have a clear leadership position in everything we do. We are by numbers, facts, by technology, by perception. We are seen as the leader. There is no doubt. We have been able to design a strategy or engineer a strategy that will give TOMRA more opportunities in the future than we have ever experienced. We are embarking on the circular economy, where we have 2 key elements, 2 key enablers for the transformation in the collection and the sorting technologies. And you should see that they actually hang together in the value chain. So we also have a good opportunity to capitalize on digital solutions in that space.And we have a very big industry called Food, which will go through the whole, what we call AgriTech revolution and sorting are critical elements to support our customers in delivering on high productivity, high quality and also traceability for the consumers for a supply chain that is getting more and more complex and is truly globalized. We also see big changes here when it comes to the structures of serving the consumers, where they have traditionally been going to retail in the future, we will see a mix of retail and e-commerce, I'm sure. TOMRA is positioned to capitalize this -- on these trends better than any of the competitors. We have also, even during the COVID times, made sure that we have not stopped planning or working on a strategy execution, so we have ring-fence investments in R&D and development, business development. We are advanced in artificial intelligence and machine learning. We have a digital platform with the big data opportunities. And we have a leading sensor technology platform. So we are set to continue to grow. But not everything will come now or even tomorrow, it will grow over time. And I think it's important that we have the right attention, the right focus doing that. So I think, for myself, given the fact that I have been serving for a long time, given the fact that I have turned 60, I would like to hand over to a successor in an orderly manner. Given this, I have now communicated with the Board and asked them to find a successor for myself. I will stay on board until a successor is in place. I have no other obligations or commitments made. So I am totally committed to support TOMRA and support -- and it's in my personal interest to make sure TOMRA can continue to thrive in these very attractive market opportunities going forward. And also, I'm very much caring for the people of TOMRA. So with that, my -- I will do my utmost support transition, help the board in any way I can to appoint a new successor, get this person on-boarded and making sure that TOMRA can continue on a very attractive path. With that, I think that's what I wanted to have said here. Please, it's my own decision. It is no haste work here. We will do it in a planned fashion. I hope you experience TOMRA as a quality company. We want to make sure this is also a quality planned execution around this. And therefore, we will see each other again, but there is a, so to say, change plan here. And that's something I would like to communicate to you here. Thank you.
Well said.
Well, with that, I think we can go over to if there are any questions.
Yes. Georgina, do we have any questions from the audience?
Thank you Espen and Stefan. We will start with a question from Daniel Haugland from ABG. Congratulations on solid numbers in uncertain times. Question. Sorting order intake was a bit better-than-expected in Q3. Outlook is unchanged in text. How should we think about the next coming quarters on order intake? Has momentum changed? Or is it more on the levels of the last 2 quarters?
Yes. So I don't want to emphasize on any numbers. We are generally trying to be realistic, we want the investor community to find a trust base and transparency in what we do. So for us, the last thing we want to do is to overpromise, but also not under promise. Remember, the underlying fundamentals of the market are there. The need for automation for retrieving the maximum value out of the commodities that are being processed, being either metals, plastic or food categories are there. Corona will actually lead to, I'm sure, an acceleration in automation because it makes the system too vulnerable to be depending on people when you look for maximum hygiene and safety. So in the extension, we will see more automation coming out of learnings we make from the corona. But in the short, in particular, 2 segments are still challenged. I think the one we have talked to you about is processed food, where the industry have suffered now due to this dramatic changes in the market behavior and traditional channels have been dramatically reduced in consumption. And it's very easy, I think, for us all to understand the impact of close down of hotels and restaurants, et cetera. They have -- that's gone down dramatically. Though, when we talk to our largest customers, they are starting to think more positively. They -- it's also a fundamental simple thing that if you have planted trees like for apples or nuts or bush for berry, when that category or the produce is grown, you need to process it. So there will be a need here coming and it's building up. And also, of course, every year, every day that goes, existing machine will be more and more depreciated and that needs to be replaced. So that is not changing. The demand is there, it's the uncertainty and the fluctuation in the market that has affected the situation. So slightly positive on that there will be a improved momentum gradually here over time, maybe not in the fourth quarter, but we do believe that it's building up now. And this -- we have signals for that. On the Sorting side in Recycling and Mining, we continue to see good progress, as we said before, in the waste and our PET sector. The commodity price uncertainties and structural changes in the sector. And when I say structural changes, one big example is, of course, how the general plastics market has changed, especially since 2018 when China imposed the ban on importing of waste, the so-called National Sword. A big -- the biggest market in the world for the plastic waste disappeared overnight. And of course, that has yet to find new takeoffs. And one way to do it is actually to find a circular economy concept to it where you upgrade the material. So we need to remain a little bit cautious on these areas, but it's not dark black here. It is slight positivism in the processed food in the horizon here. And we also see more stable commodity prices in the plastics and metals. So hopefully, that will also bring some more speed into the market. But again, that's the intelligence we have, we shared with you this way and we cannot predict further -- in further details than that.
Thank you. We continue with two questions on a similar topic. So first, from Mikkel Nyholtt from Carnegie. What is the main driver behind cost control? And do you envision this to sustain also going forward? Please give us an update on the cost trajectory indication forward? And from Marcela Klang from Handelsbanken. Can you talk about your OpEx going forward?
Yes. Third quarter, we were round figures, flattish, currency adjusted versus last year. This -- in fourth quarter, you should expect a slight increase but not more than a slight increase, fourth quarter over fourth quarter. Overall, we have a good cost control elements. And this is, of course, less traveling. We have additional costs but we also drew from -- get some help from governments and different kind of systems that establish to help companies around the world with typically lower sales and security tax. Some support on furloughs and so on that helps also companies like TOMRA. You could assume that the round figures, both for second, third and also fourth quarter that we have a positive effect from this type of initiatives, around NOK 20 million, of which 40% is hitting the cost line and 60% is hitting the OpEx line. It's little to say, arbitrary, how we -- what to include and not include of this, but that's to give you a flavor for how that's influencing us also. So overall, I think, as I said, fourth quarter will be very much in line with fourth quarter last year, say, maybe for a few percentage points. That's how it looks today.
So the next question also from Mikkel from Carnegie. What is the sorting situation in South America? Difficult to track any stability in revenue? Is it food or recycling that causes the spikes?
It's mainly food. And its seasonality we're actually seeing here because they are in the southern hemisphere. So the installations are usually coming upfront for the harvest season, which is then the first quarter. And therefore, you see third and fourth quarter, usually have higher. This year, third quarter was strong and that's a little the timing between third and fourth quarter really. So that's actually what you're looking at.
The next question is from Philippe [Kering] [indiscernible] and it has 3 sections. So first section regarding Netherlands. You said small bottle collection could double volumes. But to what extent can you upgrade existing machines? Or are new machines needed to deal with this? The second part of the question, any update on other new opportunities in Collection and Sorting? And Stefan, sorry to see you go, but all the best.
On the Netherlands, you can say that in the, say, modern deposit markets, you usually end up between 2,000 and 6,000 machines per capita. Netherlands today is somewhere in the middle, but it's a rather old installed base handling the large plastic bottles. And as I said, the introduction of deposit of the small bottles will double that volume. And then if the can uncertainty, whether that will be included or not, which will add additional volume here. And for that reason, retailers will probably look into this and see whether they will upgrade by new or by additional equipment and you will see all 3 of them. So it's certain that the number of machines per capita will increase in Netherlands. So they probably will be on the high side, and this is lower being closer to 3,000 than 6,000. There are 17 -- a little more than 17 million citizens in the Netherlands. So you have to do some assumption around those data points and then take it from there, if you want to model this. We are not certain ourselves either, so it's hard to be more precise on this also. And also the timing between fourth quarter, first quarter, second quarter is more uncertain. It is much more a second -- first and second quarter next year event than a fourth quarter event. Do you have just one more question?
The second part of the question was any updates...
New markets, yes, yes. We pointed out 3 of them. Of course, Scotland has commencement 1st of June, 2022. And then we have a lot of other projects going on and the single-use plastic directive is stating targets that the different countries has to deliver upon. And we will be there when this evolves. And I think we have seen projects move forward in time, but also backwards in time. So it's a little -- it’s a floating target. But I don't think that any others we will mention particular at the time being, which there has been significant changes on in Europe. Outside Europe, there are good momentum around the remaining states in Australia, which also are on different path towards implementing systems like they have done now in New South Wales in Queensland and Western.
Thank you, Espen. On the same topic, we have a question from Knut Erik Løvstad from Kepler Cheuvreux. Is there any change in the preparations in the EU countries related to the introduction of the EU plastic directive or any specific development you can comment on? And on the same topic, Marcela Klang from Handelsbanken. When do you expect a deposit system in England, France, but also perhaps Spain and Italy?
Yes. I think I partly addressed that already. So there is not really anything big new to communicate around those initiatives.
Yes. I think we have a tradition not to speculate. We build our communication on facts or information we get from authorities. You can rest assure that we are -- we have quite -- we have invested in quite a big team now to be there and support a team, what we call governmental affairs. That's really working with the markets like we did early on in U.K. and Scotland. And we have people in every market more or less in Europe doing precisely that. And -- but we have experienced that the political processes, they are complex and much beyond our control for sure. So in order not to mislead, we really communicate what we know and that's it.
Thank you, Stefan. The next question is from Mikkel Nyholtt from Carnegie. Are you still actively pursuing M&A for any of the 3 divisions? In which could we eventually see something taking place?
So we have until now -- yes, we have a little bit of a legacy that we say that we have a clear strategy, it always starts with how can we serve our customers better, how can we grab opportunities better. And that we have worked on over years to build the position which we have today and make sure that we can extract the value out of the businesses we have included in the TOMRA portfolio. And how -- make sure that we can deliver more values to the customers than the competition can do. So that's very critical. So it really needs to be done with quality. It's all about when you acquire something, make sure that you don't destroy but can build values on that. And that addition can add more value to the customer. That in the extension would help TOMRA to become better. So if you look into areas where we would scout, if I say so, for acquisitions, that would be either in a geographical context, portfolio extension, where you can say we can serve the customers in a better way than we could before or in technology extensions. And that area is quite big field now when you think about the new technology developments around the computing, digital or artificial intelligence. But also upstream, downstream developments in both Food and Recycling/Mining -- sorry, recycling sector given the whole circular economy evolution. So probably there would be a need for us going forward to be more active here. In the short, we don't expect anything, especially nothing significant. But I would also say that our willingness to enhance our focus on M&A going forward, should increase a little bit. And we have also had the time now to integrate the latest acquisition being Compac and BBC, and they are performing very well, I'm glad to say. So we are now more ready to look ahead, again, than we have been in the past. But in the short, don't expect anything coming up.
Thank you. The next question also for Mikkel. 2023 target, we are halfway there. Are you more or less confident in meeting this now than what you were back in 2018?
Yes. Of course, the COVID create challenges, but I think also that we proved within the report we just released that when we have ignition of all cylinders, this motor is working very well. We are above our financial target on the margin in this quarter. It's a sum of, of course, good performance in all units, no vacation money in the third quarter. It's kind of a Norwegian Nordic thing, NOK 15 million -- maybe NOK 20 million effect that comes at every third quarter. But still, it shows that it's possible to do it. But the biggest challenge is within Food that over a year did not meet our expectations on bottom line. And to get to the bottom line target of 18% EBITA stable over year, they need to improve. The other units are performing and are above that. So it's -- it boils down to the improved performance in Food, which we and the team is committed to deliver upon, but there is a way to go together.
Thank you, Espen. And we have the question for Stefan, it's from Mikkel. Stefan, what are your plans post-TOMRA?
Well, actually I -- thank you for the question. Presently, I have -- my focus is to support this transition. How long it takes, I don't know, but I can assess it can quickly go into a year. It will be very difficult to have any additional discussions in parallel to that. So I've just refrain from that. I would focus on one thing and that is TOMRA for now. And then I will reorient myself to see what is the -- what do I aspire to do. I have no clear plans right now. I am single minded. It's TOMRA for now.
Thank you.
If that was the last question, so I'll just add on that. It is, of course, regrettable that Stefan will leave us in the not-too-distant future. And there is never a good time to leave, but that said, everything must come to an end. And Stefan has been with us for more than 11 years and it's been a great journey. And Stefan has led us from around SEK 3.5 billion to SEK 10 billion in revenues. And we are on the dawn of a new era, and we have ambitions to go to SEK 20 billion and SEK 30 billion. And at some time, we will need for a new person at the helm. And maybe this is a time for she or he to join in and also be a part of forming and planning and executing on this growth. So -- because this is not kind of next year. This is a 5-year horizon and even 10-year horizon, all the things that we see in pipeline that we need to deliver upon. The opportunities are there, but we need to execute upon them. And then maybe this is the time to get a new person on board also. So as I said, regrettable, but I understand also Stefan's decision. And please, rest assured that there is no kind of controversy around this. The dialogue between management and the Board is the dialogue of -- maybe it's the wrong word to use is harmony. It kind of maybe gives the wrong impression, but we have really transparent [ trust, verse ] dialogues, constructive dialogues, exactly the way we wanted to do. Both between management and the Board and the Board and with the management group. So this is way of life. Things move on. I'm happy that we can work with Stefan, probably for maybe a year and having a planned succession. And looking forward to that. So you will see us next quarter also. So with that, I suggest we end the presentation.
Yes. Thank you all for joining. Again, we're pleased with the quarter. I think given the situation where the COVID, I'm very proud about what we can demonstrate the capability in delivering sound numbers. Good to see that we can make a dividend payout and we are on track to continue here. So thank you very much, and see you soon again.