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Earnings Call Analysis
Q4-2023 Analysis
Schibsted ASA
Schibsted navigated a complex macro environment with commendable agility, mirroring the robustness of its diverse portfolio. Despite the challenges in the Scandinavian economies, the company managed to hold its revenue line steady from the previous year at NOK 4.082 billion, with an EBITDA climbing 5% to reach NOK 684 million. Particularly noteworthy was the Nordic Marketplaces segment, resiliently amassing an underlying revenue growth of 6%, albeit combating headwinds in the job vertical. Even as EBITDA in this segment contracted slightly by 3%, its solid overall performance at NOK 418 million echoed the company's strategic focus.
Echoing the ethos of environmental responsibility, Schibsted made significant strides in sustainable operations. The extension of environmental criteria for paper sourcing in Norway exemplified this, while the marketplace FINN dramatized a milestone, catalyzing over 2 million Recommerce transactions in 2023. This not only showcased Schibsted's prowess in business but also signified its influence in propelling circular economies. Moreover, the company's journalistic endeavors were heralded with prestigious accolades, exemplifying its dedication to impactful storytelling. Notably, incorporation of sustainability goals into Schibsted's governance paradigms is seamlessly translating its ethical commitment into operational frameworks, promising sustainability to be a core value driver going forward.
Mobility and Real Estate verticals exhibited contrasting narratives – the former witnessing a 10% revenue surge on a foreign exchange neutral basis, while the latter adopted a steadier pace with a 12% neutral growth curve. Could the cause be Mobility's flourishing classified revenues and bold forays with platforms like Nettbil and Autovex, contrasting with Real Estate's resilience amidst economic downturns? In the intricate tapestry of market forces, Jobs and Recommerce verticals painted distinct but interconnected patterns, with Jobs reflecting a 10% revenue downturn and Recommerce succeeding with a triumphant 25% growth. This growth dichotomy illustrates the company's ability to leverage distinct strategies to harnesses the potential within diverse markets.
Schibsted's News Media division held firm, buoyed by laudable journalism and digital subscription growth by 12%, despite the possible reshaping from The Tinius Trust's intended acquisition. Advertising revenues, primarily digital, nudged up 3%, suggesting a narrative of resilience. Delivery, conversely, struggled with a 12% revenue decrease, though EBITDA showed improvement, hinting at efficient cost management strategies taking root. Notably, the division faced shifting consumer behaviors and a decline in newspaper circulation, complex challenges met with diligent cost supervision.
Schibsted's Growth & Investment segment confronted setbacks, with revenues falling by 7% due to softer performance in ventures such as Lendo and Prisjakt. A tricky e-commerce climate and changes in SEO traffic compounded the situation, even as Lendo grappled with cautious banks and consumers in a tightening economic environment, leading to a 20% revenue slump. Nevertheless, the company made decisive strides such as the exit from Viaplay, steering away from potential long-term benefits in favor of strategic focus, postured for a transformation into two more concentrated entities.
Quarter four marked a pivotal juncture for Schibsted, not only coalescing around corporate strategy but also witnessing the announcement of CEO Kristin Skogen Lund's impending departure. The firm is poised at a strategic crossroad, preparing to bifurcate into separate entities with heightened focus on marketplaces and media, respectively. This approach, coupled with leadership transition, is intended to fortify the company's growth trajectory – a testament to proactive governance and vision for sustained value creation.
Schibsted's core financial health remained robust, with operating profits vaulting 11% to NOK 317 million. The group's balance sheet reflected resilience and strategic acumen, underscored by the planned sale of a significant stake in Adevinta for an estimated NOK 24 billion and an expected update from The Tinius Trust for a NOK 4 billion boost. These maneuvers, undertaken with future growth potential in mind, endorse Schibsted's foundational financial strength and strategic anticipation in treading future paths.
Good morning everyone, and welcome to the presentation of Schibsted's Q4 results. Today with me here is Kristin, our CEO; and P.C., our CFO who will present results and progress in the fourth quarter.At the end of the presentation, we will have as usual a Q&A, and also Christian, our EVP for Nordic Marketplaces and Delivery will join us for the session. We will try a new format this time. So financial analysts can connect on Teams to ask live questions with a raise hand feature but alternatively, you can also connect on the web player and write written questions.So with this, please let me hand over for Kristin.
Thank you, Jann-Boje, and a warm welcome to everyone.As you know, there was also some other news, but I'll comment a little bit on that at the end today and I will go straight to the highlights before we have a closer look at the development in the fourth quarter.Financially, we delivered another solid quarter taking into account that the macroeconomic development in the Nordic region remains challenging. Group revenues were NOK 4.082 billion in the fourth quarter, stable compared to the corresponding quarter last year looking at underlying revenues. EBITDA ended at NOK 684 million and that is 5% up from Q4 last year.Nordic Marketplaces -- oops. I have to change this. Excuse me. Nordic Marketplaces achieved an underlying revenue growth of 6% in Q4, despite continued market headwinds in the Job vertical. EBITDA for the segment was 3% below last year at NOK 418 million. Continuing the positive development in the previous quarter, News Media's profitability improved in Q4, which was driven by the ongoing cost program with EBITDA ending at NOK 266 million. Similar to the third quarter, performance in Growth & Investment was affected by lower top and bottom-line in Lendo driven by the challenging macroeconomic factors we see.While the development in Q4 shows that we are not immune to the current macroeconomic environment, our products continue to have high engagement and reach. This makes a meaningful difference in people's lives and positions Schibsted and our core businesses well to deliver on our ambitions and goals in the years to come.And looking at the journey ahead of us, I am proud of the major strategic milestones that was announced in Q4, unleashing Schibsted's full potential, but I'll come back to that at the end of my presentation.So now let's have a look at our ESG highlights in the fourth quarter and we will start with our progression in the environmental area. An important part of our environmental impact is our consumption of paper for our printed newspapers. So, therefore, it has been an important step to extend our environmental criteria for our paper sourcing here in Norway. I have something in my throat. Sorry.Going forward, we will include requirements on certification of the paper, reduction in emissions, and transparency in reporting. I'm also pleased to report that Schibsted's marketplace FINN exceeded our ambitious target and facilitated over 2 million Recommerce transactions in 2023. This success is not solely a victory for our business, it is also an indication that we make Recommerce smoother for our consumers. And it is testament to our commitment to promoting circular and sustainable consumption.In terms of social contributions, Schibsted dedicated -- Schibsted's dedication to independent and high-quality journalism has been recognized at the highest level. Our newspapers in Sweden were honored with 3 out of 4 awards at the Swedish Grand Prize of Journalism. And this honor reflects our steadfast commitment to trustworthy journalism and great storytelling. Internally, we have also made progress in diversity, inclusion, and belonging. We have implemented a comprehensive diversity and inclusion mapping tool across 3 of our companies now. It's called the diversity index tool. This tool will provide valuable insights into diversity and inclusion and lay the groundwork for further fact-based actions to build an inclusive workplace and leverage the benefits of diverse and innovative teams.In governance, we have reached a significant milestone in integrating sustainability into our strategies. For our Nordic Marketplaces organization, we have successfully incorporated sustainability targets into the governance and strategic execution agenda. And this integration will enable our organization to leverage sustainability as a driver of value creation and ensure that our commitment to sustainability is integrated into the very core of our operational decisions.On the topic of governance, I'm also pleased to say that we continued to excel in sustainability, transparency and we have prepared well. So our 2023 sustainability report is based on the European Sustainability Reporting Standard, which is mandated by the EU directive on corporate sustainability reporting, the CSRD. So we are well prepared for the upcoming regulatory development.And lastly, on this, I am proud to mention that ESG raters have once again recognized us with high scores. And this time, it's Sustainalytics that rated us as an industry and regional leader in their ESG risk rating.With that, we will move over to the business, and we start with Nordic Marketplaces. And this time, before we start diving into the quarter, I wanted to spend a couple of minutes to recap the major shift in Nordic Marketplaces. Because at the start of 2023, our marketplaces' business embarked on a multiyear transformation to a vertical operating model. One year in, I am pleased with what we have achieved so far, making good headway into that important journey. In Mobility, we now have a clear view on how we plan to harmonize and evolve our pricing model over the coming years. And we have taken the first steps during the fall, which will show effect in 2024.In addition, we see strong progress in our C2B positions, and I'll come back to that specifically shortly. Jobs had a tough year, and that's given the volatile macro environment following the previous period of very strong growth. However, we have successfully started the aggregation of ads in Norway, and that will strengthen our offering further. In Real Estate, we saw a good development in Finland, where we have achieved a #1 position in several important metrics, including top of mind, traffic, and content leadership, and that is important for our strategy to win and grow in this market.And for Recommerce, we continued to see significant improvements in both uptake of ads and monetization in both Norway and Sweden. In 2023, the number of transactions have more than tripled, and take rates are continuously improving. As a next step, we are now ready to launch the transactional model in Finland. However, the most important milestone achieved in the transition thus far is the beta-launch of Tori on our new Nordic tech platform, and this happened in January. We are continuously moving users over to the new platform now, and the plan is to have all users onboarded by the end of the first quarter.This is the first step of our multiyear tech transition, ensuring that we move from multiple tech platforms to one common platform and that will enable faster and more cost-efficient innovation. It's a very complex task, and we will see investments for some time before we can realize the synergies in the coming years.And if we then move to the financials. In the quarter, Nordic Marketplaces delivered foreign exchange neutral revenue growth of 6% in the fourth quarter, driven by solid growth in classifieds revenues despite the challenging macro conditions. As in previous quarters, the revenue growth was primarily driven by the Mobility and Real Estate verticals in all markets and solid growth in transactional revenues in Recommerce as well. The growth was partly offset by the Job vertical, which continued to see significant volume decline due to the market headwinds. Advertising revenues also continued to be affected by the market headwinds with a slightly higher year-on-year decline compared to previous quarters.EBITDA and margin decreased compared to Q4 last year, mainly driven by the decline in Jobs, the investments to drive new business models in Mobility, Real Estate, and Recommerce, and also a change in revenue mix given the good progress for the transactional models.Looking at profitability, we continue to work on our cost base within Nordic Marketplaces, focusing on strategic initiatives with higher value creation potential in order to make sure we reach our financial ambitions.And then we will take a closer look at our 4 verticals. We will start with the largest vertical in Nordic Marketplaces, Mobility. And we highlighted at our Capital Markets Day that the C2B auctions is really one of our key growth initiatives. And I'm happy to report that both Nettbil and Autovex are 2 synergistic C2B platforms are both showing good progress. Both companies are operating a C2B auction service, providing a superior offering for both private customers and car dealers compared to traditional offerings. Our largest C2B service, Nettbil in Norway operates a managed model. That means that it supports with like a customer advisor, vehicle inspection by partners, and on-platform transaction.These services increased trust, particularly towards dealers, leading to a higher take rate, and that makes Nettbil better suited also for older cars. Autovex, our second platform is a light-touch model with users being more self-served. And given the more digital and quick process, the take rate is lower compared to a model like Nettbil. So this model is better suited for newer cars. And despite the volatile macro environment, Nettbil and Autovex continued their strong development as around 31,000 transactions happened on the platforms in '23 with revenues increasing to around NOK 300 million in total.And to further expand this journey and to deliver on our growth ambitions, we have launched Wheelaway in Sweden in January. That is a C2B offering based on the Autovex platform, which is simpler and hence, a bit easier to scale.Then let's review the underlying classified revenue drivers for Mobility in the different geographies. In Norway, we saw professional volume growth slowing down in September. This slowdown has continued throughout Q4, and it's mainly due to strong comparables from last year. In total, professional volumes ended 5% down from last year. Private volumes have been more volatile during the whole year and Q4 shows a significant decline in volumes of 22%, mainly driven by a challenging market. The positive ARPA development in Norway was driven by regular price adjustments.In Sweden, professional volumes continued to see solid growth of 13% in Q4. Private volumes have seen improvements during the year and experienced a decline of 4% in the quarter. ARPA development in Sweden was driven by regular price adjustments, although somewhat offset by the lower adaptation of upselling products. Denmark continues to show strong volume growth and a positive ARPA development was driven by both price increases and product mix.If we then look at financials for Mobility, we saw solid revenue growth across all markets in the quarter, and foreign exchange neutral revenues increased by 10% compared to last year. Classified revenues grew underlying 14% in the quarter, primarily driven by ARPA increases. In addition, Nettbil continued to show solid growth of 45%. Autovex is part of the reported figures in the quarter and had a solid development despite the more challenging macro environment in Finland. And macro conditions continued to impact the advertising market.And in Q4, advertising revenues in the Mobility vertical showed a decline of 5% on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Total costs increased year-on-year, driven by marketing and also investments in the new initiatives like Nettbil and Autovex. EBITDA increased 15% compared to Q4 last year. That's driven by the higher revenues and margin ended at 49%.Then we'll move on to Jobs. We continued to see a decline in volume of paid ads, and that's in line with previous quarters across all markets. This decline is primarily driven by the market headwinds. And compared to Norway, Sweden and Finland have higher unemployment rates, so the volume decline is particularly challenging in those markets. The growth in ARPA in Norway was driven by regular price increases but also upsell products. In Sweden, ARPA growth was solely driven by upsell products. And in Finland, the negative ARPA development is driven by a change in product mix.If we then look at numbers, the challenging macroeconomic environment, predominantly affects Jobs, as we have mentioned. Price adjustments and increased revenues from upselling products led to a significant increase in ARPA partly offsetting the impact of the decreased volumes. Nevertheless, market challenges resulted in a revenue decline of 10% compared to last year on a foreign exchange neutral basis. If you look at Norway, which accounts for 82% of total Job revenues in the quarter, revenues only decreased 4% year-on-year despite a 13% decline in volume, and that is thanks to the robust ARPA growth.EBITDA was impacted by lower revenues, combined with the higher cost driven by marketing, and decreased by 26% compared to last year.Next up now is Real Estate. As mentioned earlier, we have seen that listings are countercyclical as, for example, republications increased during economic downturns. As such, the business model for Real Estate has historically been rather resilient in a challenging macroeconomic environment that we see now. In Norway, volumes were declining for the first time this year and ended the quarter with a 6% decline. However, if you look at '23 in total, the number of listings were at an all-time high and in line with the market development. ARPA has been consistently increased in Norway due to price adjustments. The increased use of upsell products has also been contributing to that ARPA growth.In Finland, we are once again pleased to report continued robust growth in volumes. Similar to previous quarters, growth was driven by rental listings rather than sales listings and that again is a reflection of the macro environment. ARPA in Finland was primarily driven by price adjustments, while the mix of houses for sale versus rental ads resulted in a significant decline in ARPA in the quarter. After several strong quarters of exceptional revenue growth, Real Estate has a more normalized quarter with 12% foreign exchange neutral revenue growth. This growth was primarily driven by the continued ARPA growth in Norway and also solid growth in our rental platform, Qasa.Revenues in Norway, the largest part of our Real Estate business increased by 13%, and that's despite that negative volume development that I mentioned. In Finland, we are pleased to see an accelerated progress towards the #1 position, and that can be attributed to our intensified marketing efforts. Our rental platform, Qasa in Sweden continues to show solid growth in main KPIs with growth in signing value being the most important one to follow.EBITDA increased 8% year-on-year, driven by the strong revenue growth, partly offset by increased costs from investments in Qasa and also the increased marketing spend in Finland.Then we have come to the last vertical, Recommerce. We currently have a transactional model in Norway with Fiks ferdig and in Sweden with Frakt med köpskydd, very difficult to say. And as I announced earlier, we plan to onboard all Recommerce users in Finland to the new tech platform this quarter, and we are ready to launch a transactional model there quite soon. The uptake of number of ads continued to show significant improvement. In Norway, our users completed around 687,000 transactions through our platform in the fourth quarter and that is an increase of 59% compared to Q4 in '22.In total, for '23, more than 2 million transactions have been completed through Fiks ferdig. The average order value in Norway was at a solid level of NOK 603, in line with last year, somewhat lower than the previous quarter, though. In Sweden, we launched the transactional model in late '22, and the number of transactions continues to grow steadily. Q4 was the first quarter with more than 100,000 transactions completed through the platform. The average order value is declining in Q4 compared to Q3, and that's due to some shifts in category mix in the platform.For Recommerce, the main driver for revenue growth is the transactional business, where we continue to see substantial uptake in monetization, both in Norway and Sweden. And as previously communicated, we are experimenting with different monetization methods, and we really see solid development in unit economics in both Norway and Sweden. Total foreign exchange neutral revenue growth for the quarter was 25%, and that's driven by an impressive growth of 45% in classifieds because the advertising market is still affected by the challenging macroeconomic conditions, and advertising revenues declined by 9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter on a foreign exchange neutral basis.EBITDA for the quarter ended at a loss of NOK 69 million. That's in line with last quarter and continued investments in the new business model is still offsetting the revenue growth.Okay. Let's move to News Media. Our media houses, they continue to make impact through both breaking news and investigative journalism in Q4 also recognizes by the prices I mentioned in my introduction. Furthermore, it was also an extraordinary quarter for this part of our organization due to the announcement that The Tinius Trust seeks to acquire our News Media business operations, and I'll come back to that at the end of my stint here.Lastly, I can also report that after a thorough evaluation of the merits of our options, we have taken the decision to wind down and exit our investment in Viaplay over the next few months. We knew from the start that this investment was risky. And at year-end '23, our shares owned in Viaplay had a market value of NOK 43 million, and we have sold our subscription rights and shares over the last few weeks. We still believe that an investment in the restructuring of Viaplay could have been interesting in the long run. However, given the timing with the intention from The Trust to acquire our media business, it no longer makes sense for us to pursue this.If we then go over to the financial results of the fourth quarter, News Media delivered foreign exchange neutral revenues in line with last year, driven by resilient subscription revenues and a strong advertising performance in Sweden. When adjusting for the sale of Lokalavisene made in October, total underlying revenues increased by 1%. On the cost side, News Media saw continued effects from the cost program. And despite a high inflationary environment, the cost levels declined by 2%, contributing to a significant EBITDA improvement compared to last year and the last quarters with an EBITDA margin of 13%.If you take a closer look at the main revenue streams, we see that digital subscription revenues showed solid foreign exchange neutral growth of 12% or 13% if we adjust for the sale of Lokalavisene. The increase was driven by improved ARPU combined with higher volumes, continued growth in Podme, and also the new All Access bundle product.Moving to advertising. The quarter ended with an underlying growth in digital advertising of 3%, driven by strong performance in Sweden, where we returned to growth this quarter. Norway continued to experience market volatility, but a resilient December ensured that the quarter ended just slightly below last year.And then I'll move on to delivery. Performance here was affected by the legacy newspaper distribution business, which saw a continued decline in newspaper circulation combined with a lapse of Sunday distribution. It's the last quarter of comparables to that. Within new business, Morgenlevering continued to decline compared to last year. That's driven by changes in consumer shopping behavior as particularly after COVID. Helthjem Netthandel also saw a revenue decline in the fourth quarter due to less B2C volumes.C2C volumes on the other side continued to increase, and that's driven by FINN's transactional Recommerce offering, Fiks ferdig. And in total, revenues decreased 12% in the quarter. However, total costs decreased by 16% in Q4 compared to last year, driven by continuous and strong cost focus and improved profitability in the value chain of Helthjem. As a result, EBITDA actually improved compared to last quarter and last year.Then next up is Growth & Investment, consisting of brands like Lendo, Prisjakt, and other digital services that we have. And here, we see that total consolidated revenues in the segment decreased 7% on a foreign exchange neutral basis. That's driven by declining revenues in Lendo, and I'll come back to that on the next slide. Prisjakt experienced a tough e-commerce market with revenues decreasing 2% on a foreign exchange neutral basis. Click revenue remained stable, but advertising revenues had a double-digit decline compared to last year.Additionally, there was a decrease in the number of sessions, influenced by a reduction in SEO direct traffic, and that they were really adversely affected by the updates that Google did to their core algorithm in the fourth quarter. Total EBITDA for Growth & Investment declined with 30% compared to last year. That's driven by the revenue decline in Lendo and also a one-off cost in the SMB segment. Lendo then experienced a solid number of loan applications in Q4, but continued to see a further reduced conversion from application to payout in Sweden and Norway as the macroeconomic environment causes both banks and consumers or borrowers to be more cautious.As a consequence, Lendo's revenues declined in the quarter. The development in Denmark as well as new product verticals like credit cards in Norway and business loans in Sweden, they continued to grow well. In total, revenues in Lendo Group declined by 20% compared to last year on a foreign exchange neutral basis. EBITDA performance was affected by the revenue decline and margin decrease compared to last year, and that's despite the cost reductions that we have made due to the winding down of the international expansion.So with that, and before I hand it over to P.C., I'll just comment on our overall strategy and direction for the future. For Schibsted, Q4 was characterized by the announcement of 2 transformational milestone which will transform this company and unlock its full potential. For a start, we made important progress in the execution of our ownership in Adevinta, as we announced our support for the voluntary offer for Adevinta in November. Our decision to engage in the transaction was carefully considered and is aimed to identify the most certain and value-accretive solution for both Schibsted and our shareholders. This move not only ensures substantial cash proceeds at an attractive valuation, but it also allows us to maintain a stake in the future growth potential through a minority reinvestment.Subsequently, we announced in December that our largest shareholder, The Tinius Trust, seeks to acquire our News Media operations. If finalized, this transaction sets the stage for a transformative restructuring of Schibsted into 2 more focused companies, a media company, fully owned then by The Tinius Trust and a publicly listed marketplaces company. Pending a final agreement with The Tinius Trust and approval by the general meeting, we are confident that this move will strengthen the growth prospects and potential of both of these businesses.We expect closing of both transactions to happen in the second quarter of '24, and we will provide you with more information over the next few months if and when appropriate. And as announced this morning, the next legs of Schibsted's journey will be embarked upon without me at the helm. Schibsted is now at a crossroads, and we are entering a new phase as we go from being one united group to 2 separate companies. And in the face of that change, it is the right time for me to step down and let a new leadership guide Schibsted into this next era.I want to give the board sufficient time and opportunity to identify the new leadership and my successor so that they can be operational as soon as this transaction will close. At the same time, I am, of course, committed to ensuring a smooth transition. I will continue to support the company in any way I can. And I will, of course, remain in my role until a new CEO is appointed. So that means it's still not time for goodbyes, but it might be the last time I present the quarterly results. So let me take the opportunity to thank you all for your continued support, especially through some of the rough times that we've had. Schibsted is a fantastic company, and it is a huge privilege to lead such a group of talented people with so much yet to be achieved. Thank you very much.And over to you, P.C.
Thank you, Kristin, and we will -- we are really sad to see you leave. And we will miss you. But at the same time, we fully understand and respect your decision.So good morning. Let me quickly take you through the details on the financials for the fourth quarter. I will start my presentation by giving a quick update on the overall financials of the group. As mentioned, overall revenues are on a foreign exchange neutral basis, stable versus the fourth quarter last year despite the challenging macroeconomic landscape. This development was driven by the 6% growth in Nordic Marketplaces, offset by decline in delivery and Growth & Investments. On the cost side, we see an increased effect from the cost program in News Media, impacting the group EBITDA ending at NOK 684 million, up 5% versus the same period last year.Our operating profit for the quarter ended at NOK 317 million, up 11% from last year. This is driven by higher EBITDA, combined with the effect on the sale of Lokalavisene, partly offset by somewhat higher depreciation and amortization charge. Items below operating profit are, to a large degree, affected by our ownership stake in Adevinta. During the fourth quarter, we saw the share price in Adevinta increase from around NOK 106 at the end of Q3 to around NOK 112 at the end of Q4, ending with the results and the reversal of the previous recognized impairment losses of around NOK 2 billion.The TRS related to Adevinta also was affected by the increased share price, leading to a gain of NOK 195 million recognized under financial income in the quarter. Financial expenses, on the other hand, includes a loss of NOK 245 million from the TRS linked to our investments in Viaplay. In totality then, net operating profit for the group ended at NOK 2.2 billion in Q4. Operating cash flow in the quarter fell by NOK 193 million or 27% in the quarter. And the main reason for this was that the cash inflow in Q4 2022 was artificially high due to the implementation of a new ERP system during 2022.CapEx in Q4 ended at NOK 316 million, up 12% from last year, and this is mainly driven by significant investments into the new common technical platform in Nordic Marketplaces, combined with the investments within delivery into a new sorting machine in Vestby. During the quarter, interest-bearing debt close to NOK 500 million was repaid at maturity. The Adevinta TRS was rolled over, giving a positive liquidity effect of NOK 1.2 billion. The Viaplay TRS was terminated in December, resulting in a loss of NOK 340 million in the quarter.After the New Year, we have now fully exited our position, and the total loss related to Viaplay amount, unfortunately, to NOK 360 million. Schibsted at the end of the year has a solid financial position with a financial gearing of 2.1x. And then just a quick reminder and a recap. As part of the Adevinta offer, Schibsted will sell 60% of our 28% stake in Adevinta, resulting in approximately NOK 24 billion in proceeds. In addition, The Tinius Trust intention to acquire our News Media operation is expected to yield around NOK 4 billion of additional proceeds.And as we have said before, we intend to use these cash proceeds from these 2 major transactions to return capital to our shareholders. And we will use the coming months once these 2 transactions complete and close to continue to evaluate our options and have a close dialogue with the majority of our shareholders. More information around the details on the different sort of vehicles and the timing and the amount is expected to be given at the time of closing of these 2 transactions.Then on our medium-term financial targets and then some quick reflections on the outlook for Q1. Nordic Marketplaces is well-positioned to deliver on the ambition to transition into a new vertical-based operating model as we expect to unlock significant value for our consumers and generate customer value over time. Yet the current macroeconomic environment has proven to be more difficult and less favorable than we expected when we introduced these ambitions almost a year ago.And this increases the risk to deliver on these targets, and it leads specifically to a revision of the Jobs vertical financial ambitions for 2024. For the year '24, we expect Jobs' volume to decrease by 5%, revenues to be stable and EBITDA margin to be around 45%. We will come back to 2025 once we have a bit more visibility during this year. For the other verticals, targets remain unchanged. As we have mentioned before, within Nordic Marketplaces, we have increased our focus on prioritizations, efficiencies, and cost management to make sure that we adapt to a more challenging macroeconomic landscape.In News Media, we continue to focus on the digital transition of our leading media houses to deliver low single-digit revenue growth and EBITDA of 10% to 12%. Further, we expect Lendo's financial performance in 2024 to be continued affected by a challenging macroeconomic environment as banks and borrowers are more cautious. We are focusing on executing and mitigating actions to manage the financial performance. And then lastly, quickly on January and Q1. At a very high level, the trends that we have gone through today, and as you can see in the presentation and the report is broadly also continuing into the month of January. But keep in mind that this is only a few weeks into the year and into the quarter.And with this, I suggest that we move into Q&A, Jann-Boje.
Thank you, P.C. So as we said, we will try a new format today. And looking at Teams, there are already some raised hands. First up is Jo. So please unmute yourself and go ahead with your question.
So it's Jo Barnet-Lamb from UBS. A couple for me, please. So firstly, your narrative on outlook seems to flag that you see downside risk for Nordic Marketplaces more broadly, but the outlook is cut for Jobs only. Can you give us a little more color on how you're thinking about the other verticals going forward? And then secondly, clearly, Kristin, you announcing your intention to leave could be seen to raise some question marks around strategy and particularly importantly, at the moment, capital allocation. Is there any color you can give with regards to how we should consider those 2 points going forward?And I'm also thinking sort of the timing of when decisions are made, even if that narrative is high level. Anything you can give us is appreciated. And obviously, best of luck for whatever is next for you, personally.
Thank you. Do you want to start with the outlook maybe or --
Yes, I can do that. As I said, we -- in general, there is a higher risk than it was a year ago due to the macroeconomic situation. We -- and most people don't really know how long or how deep this situation is going to be. And for the other 3 verticals, we see that we are -- we're in the range of the targets, and we don't see a need to change the expectations. So we'll continue to work hard to deliver on those, both for this year and next.When it came to the Jobs, as you also might recall, the actual performance last year and also the expectation for this year is pretty far away from the expectations that we set out on. So we feel -- we will update you when we see that it's -- most likely, we will not be able to deliver, and that's why we reduced the outlook for the Jobs vertical specifically.
Okay. Yes. And on the, yes, on the capital allocation thing, I mean my departure, there's absolutely no drama to my departure. And the reason we choose to announce it now and not later is to be able to run a more transparent process in identifying my successor and also a bit because as we plan the separation now, we're in a very intense phase of doing that. It becomes more and more awkward for me to sort of play that I'll be part of it when I won't. So it's also for me actually a bit of a relief to be able to be open about it. So that's the reason why we chose this timing and in Q4 was a good time given that we would be communicating today anyway.So that's the reason for that. And rest assured, we stay committed to what we have said about capital allocation. We will -- we want to hand a vast majority of those proceeds back to our shareholders, and that will happen in due course and be announced as P.C. say when we are ready to do so at the closing of the transactions.
Thank you, Jo. I think next up in line is Andrew with Barclays. So please unmute and go ahead with your questions.
Let me just also pass on my best wishes to you going forward, Kristin, and thanks for all of your help. I've got 2. The first one is to ask about the dissynergies from the News Media sale and whether we can quantify yet how much extra costs might appear as a result of that, if any. And the second one is to ask you about the cash flow in '24 and how you're expecting that to play through. Because clearly, the CapEx and leases have been pretty elevated for a while. So if you could walk us through the moving parts of the cash flow and how to think about that directionally and how you're kind of driving improved cash conversion this year, that would be helpful.
Yes.
That's you.
So on the cash flow first, we don't guide specifically on cash flow outlook, as you know. But what we have said today, I think the majority of the cash flow is generated from the Nordic Marketplaces verticals where we have a clear ambition to grow EBITDA, and that will be a positive contribution also to cash flow generation. Then we have guided that our investment level in general. We expect to be on level with 2023. So I think that is just as far as you go. We don't expect any other significant changes on working capital, any other of the components in the working capital statement.When it comes to dissynergies from the News Media sort of sale and the split of the company into 2, there will be negative synergies. We have talked about on the advertising side, and there will be some on the cost side where we share functions and we share systems today that needs to be separated and split into 2. It's too early to give sort of exact amounts related to those. So we are working hard now to prepare the separation. We still haven't signed the agreement yet, but we're preparing ourselves for that.But also keep in mind that there are some positive effects that we are able to kind of reset some of the costs and collapse some of the cost structures that we have today. So we will keep you updated, and we'll come back once we have signed and closed the transaction with more details.
Just to clarify that first answer. So you said the investment levels would stay stable in '24. So is that CapEx staying stable, just to be clear, or did I misunderstand that?
That was related to CapEx, yes.
Okay. So CapEx and, I guess, leases stable in '24 in absolute terms, not as a percentage of sales or as a percentage of sales?
In absolute terms.
Okay. Thanks, Andrew. Next in line is Pete at Morgan Stanley. Pete, floor is yours.
Thanks, Kristin, for the years, and best of luck going forward. A few questions from me. So maybe if we focus on FINN a bit. Can you talk a little bit about what's driving in Real Estate the ARPA in Q4? Is this coming mainly from the residential for sale side or rentals? And are there different trends between those 2 ARPAs? That's the first one. Then moving to FINN Motors. What kind of changes are you planning for 2024? Should there be some kind of ARPA impact that we should be aware of into 2024 or 2025? Let's start with those 2.
Yes, great questions. If you take Real Estate first, we still see good development on ARPA levels, and there are primarily 3 factors driving that. First, you have the price changes that we did in 2022. They actually still have effect in 2023 because there were some initial discounts and so on that were removed. Then there's also this fact that we have done a change in the business model for new constructions. That is also driving up ARPA. And the third element is that, that there are now more republications and more use of upsell products as a result of a slightly slower Real Estate market.So those 3 things are contributing. And if you go to Mobility, into this year, we have, of course, the general CPI increase that we do on professional contracts. In addition to that, we announced here in the fall that we have done some changes to the price levels, primarily taking away some discounts for larger dealers. That will also affect the ARPA in this year.
And the last one before I go back to the queue is on competition in Norway. So we have some initial news at least that both in Real Estate and cars, there could be potential up-and-comers coming from the agent or the dealer side. So what are your thoughts on either or both of these?
Well, in general, I would say that we have a super strong position with FINN in Norway. Consumers love us. We deliver a huge number of leads to both agents and car dealers and we're confident of our position. When it comes to the 2 specific verticals that you mentioned in Mobility, there is this Drive initiative that is first and foremost, an initiative where they are -- the dealers are going together to create a dealer management system. We also have our dealer management system with CarWeb, so there will be more competition for that specific part.And then let's see if this also goes into the marketplace business, but it's primarily on the dealer management system. And for Real Estate, well, I think it's sufficient to say what I said. I think we have a very strong position. So we are quite confident.
Thanks, Pete. Then looking here, next up in line is Will at BNP. So Will, please go ahead.
Three for me, please. Firstly, I suppose, in the wider industry globally, one of the big margin headwinds has been the [ Pay-Ship ] transition, which has proven to be a bigger drag than anticipated. At Schibsted, there's no guide for Recommerce in 2024 and consensus expect Recommerce profitability to improve in terms of absolute EBITDA and also margin. Could you comment on how to think about Recommerce margins as you develop and launch in new geographies, especially?Secondly and related, could you talk through the competitive backdrop in general of classifieds? To what extent, for example, is Vinted impacting Blocket momentum? And then finally, one of the big industry thematics is the entry of CoStar into Europe and their acquisition of OnTheMarket. Could you talk us through how you think about that potential challenge, particularly for your FINN property business?
All right. If we take Recommerce first, I mean we have stated ambitions that we will, by the end of 2025, triple the revenue and during 2025, reach profitability. So of course, that means that over the course of last year and this and next year, we will improve margins and profitability for that segment. We all have worked quite a lot on the monetization part already, reached significantly higher take rates than last year. And now we are, of course, continuing to experiment with pricing and monetization, but really the things that will drive profitability is volume growth and also continued focus on cost efficiency within that vertical.That is really what will drive profitability in the end. When it comes to competition, yes, Vinted has entered the Nordics. They have gone quite hard into Sweden. And they have also launched in Denmark and Finland. We are, of course, monitoring that closely. The good thing about competition is that it also drives awareness of second hand purchases and so on, and we actually see in Sweden, as an example, that the total market has grown quite significantly through last year as a result of this.How we respond? I don't think I will comment too much on that. We have to keep some secrets from the competition. But of course, we are in this game.
And then just on CoStar and the potential impact on your property --
Sorry. On CoStar, it's a very interesting move that they're doing in the U.K. We are following this quite closely to see how that develops. We don't feel it's a particular threat in the Norway since you asked about that. Because what I did in the U.K. was to buy not the first #1 position, but the #2 position. And there isn't such a position in Norway to acquire.
And then just coming back on Recommerce outlook for '24. Obviously, you didn't provide an actual outlook. So the way for us to think about is for an improvement in EBITDA year-on-year. Is it like the midpoint between 2023 and breakeven in '25 or should we expect more progress in 2025 and '24?
I think we shouldn't give a sort of more specific sort of guidance than what we have, but you should expect a sort of a gradual improvement from where we are today, until 2025, until we reach a positive EBITDA.
Also should take into account is that what Kristin was saying is that we are now launching the transactional model in Finland in addition to Norway and Sweden. So of course, that will also require some investments in marketing and shipping subsidies and so on.
Okay. Before we take the next question on Teams, so there's like a couple of written questions which I want to take first. The first one is on looking at the sale of our News Media operations, we've stated that Polaris is part of the News Media part going over to The Trust is completed. Do you have any plans to buy the stake of FINN and Helthjem, which is part of that vehicle?
I would separate the 2 and say that it does make an increasing sense to do something about the FINN stake because with the verticalization of Nordic Marketplaces, it's also becoming a bit increasingly complicated to have a minority owner in only one of the national companies. So I think it's in mutual interest to find a better solution for that, but that's something that we will need to come back to. For Helthjem, I think it would make sense to continue to have a cooperation with Polaris, given that they also cover a big part of the geography in distribution.
And maybe like a second question related to the change with News Media. If you can comment if there are any thoughts on the portfolio simplification of the group going forward, particularly when you look at Lendo and Prisjakt, how you approach this in the new setting of the company going forward?
Yes. Look, I mean I think it will be up to a new team to design, but I think it's natural that we will look at our portfolio, that we will see how we can maybe pivot some of these assets to be more meaningful into our marketplace business. And if we don't find good ways of doing that, I think it would be a natural future path for an exit. But then we would, of course, need to consider the market environment and make sure we get -- that we get good value for good companies.
Okay. I think then we can go back to Teams here. So next up in line is Giles at Jefferies. So Giles, please go ahead. You're muted.
Okay. Hopefully, you can hear me now.
Yes.
So first question was on Jobs. And just given the developments today, it'd be useful to hear from Christian on some of the strategic goals you set out in the CMD this time last year for Jobs and get an update on what's going well, what's not going well, particularly on the value-based pricing and the use of its sourced ads? And then the second question, back on Recommerce, back on Vinted. So they have launched in 3 of your Nordic markets in the past 18 months. And presumably, they're going to start offering cross-border listings pretty soon. So your latest thought on that feature?And while we're talking of features that Vinted have launched, your latest thoughts on item verification too please, Christian.
Yes. If you take Jobs first, let's maybe separate it into 2 things: aggregation and, let's say, optimization of the business model. We spent a great deal of time and effort last year to work on the aggregation part, and I think we have pretty much nailed it. So we are now aggregating content from several sources in Norway, which has increased the volume of content on our side a lot, and as a result, creates a much better experience for candidates and also is a moat against the competition from other aggregators.Now as we have nailed that because an important part of that was the nailing aggregation without cannibalizing the paid model. And I think we have found the way to do that in a good way. Now that we have that in place, the focus this year is, as you mentioned, much more to focus more on the actual business model, value-based pricing, effect-based pricing, and so on. And we have started to do that also in Norway on a so far, small scale. But I think this is now where we're testing it, and we will scale that up throughout this year.
So is it fair to say the current trends and the trends yes, of 2023 didn't reflect either of these impacts?
You -- I mean the aggregation last year did not give any financial impact. And the new -- the changes to the business model, that is more coming as heard by improvements in the time to come is the right way to think of it. So that will, in addition to CPI adjustments and so on, be a contributing factor to compensate for the loss of volume. But we are still at a fairly low volume level on those tests, I have to say.Recommerce. Can you repeat the question, again? I forgot the question.
Yes. As ever with sell-side people, too many words, what do you think on item verification and cross-border listings?
I don't have a strong view on item verification. But on cross-border sales, I think we know from experience that, that is one advantage that the Vinted has. Usually around 20% or so of the volume comes from cross-border sales. And we see that when they enter a country, they use content from a different country as their entry strategy. So I mean one reason for moving to a common tech platform across the Nordics is also, that, so that we, over time, can enable the same kind of cross-border trade. That is not in our immediate plans now, but that can definitely be an option for us in the future.
And just on -- sorry, I'll give up in a second. But just on item verification, when you say you haven't got a view, do you mean you don't think it's important or it's just not something that's a priority?
I don't have a view that I will go out with here now. And it's not a priority for us at this point in time. I think it's fair to say.
Okay. Then switching actually a bit from London to Oslo. So next in line is Eirik from Carnegie. So Eirik, you can go ahead.
First and foremost, Kristin, it's been a ride, the last 5 years. Looking forward to see what they'll do going forward. You mentioned some effects around harmonizing the Mobility offering. Kristin, you talked through a bit, what you've gotten in the pipeline in for this year. But bigger picture more across the different assets, could you talk a bit about #1, when we start to see the effect of this harmonization, how large it could be? Just any thoughts there would be good.
Yes. You want to do that, Christian?
I can do that. So we have said this before also that in order to move to a common tech platform, we also have to harmonize the business models across the Nordics. That's a particularly large task for Mobility, but it's also a huge opportunity to do improvements as we harmonize. I think we have now during the fall -- first of all, we have made a multiyear plan on how to do this. But secondly, we have also executed on the first step of it, which was to take away some legacy discounts that were particularly related to certain large dealers. So that will enable us to have a more, let's say, predictable and transparent model that we then can optimize in additional steps in the coming years.But you will see effects of this already from January this year.
And also a question on Sweden and Finland more on a country-by-country basis. Cost quite significantly up both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. It seems like it's driven by marketing in Finland with the launch of transactional Qasa in Sweden. But how much of the increased cost relates to kind of transactional or /marketing, and in Finland and Qasa in Sweden? And how should we think about that going forward?
Yes. So as you know, we follow the business now by verticals. So it's actually easier to think of it that way. But if you take Finland, as an example, you're absolutely right. The reason for cost increases in Finland is due to marketing that we are investing both in the Oikotie brand to strengthen our position in Real Estate. And also in the new C2B Mobility brand, Autovex. And we are seeing good progress in both those 2 areas. Autovex, that is growing nicely as Kristin was explaining earlier.And also in Real Estate in Finland, we are now seeing that we are, in fact, #1 on several of the metrics like content and traffic, and top of mind, and so on. So we are pleased with the progress, but this is something that takes a while to really win and then come in that position to monetize. You were also asking about Sweden and Qasa. And yes, there is a chunk of investments also in marketing for Qasa in Sweden. I believe it was around NOK 8 million, NOK 9 million, or something that contributed to that.
I think I can add. In total, around half of the cost increase in the retail sort of retail vertical is related to Qasa investment.
Real Estate vertical.
Real Estate.
Okay. Thanks, Eirik. The next is Ole Martin at DNB. I hope you can hear us.
I can hear you. Hopefully, you can hear me. First of all, thank you, Kristin, for all your efforts over the years. It's been a pleasure and we wish you good luck in your future endeavors. Then starting on first on Nordic Marketplaces. I wondered, Christian, if, since you're on the line, if you can highlight some of the key pricing product development initiatives that you have planned for 2024. And what we should expect then also with that, if you can comment on the sort of a bit of noise that has been around the Mobility price increases in Norway and how you see the response on that?
Yes. So I can try to give an overview. I will -- we have so many things going on on pricing and packaging. I might forget something. But let me try to give you a sense of it. So if you take Mobility, we, of course, have the underlying CPI adjustments in Norway and in Denmark. In addition, we have these changes that I just explained that we have removed discounts and so on for certain dealers. So all of that gives a quite significant ARPA uplift in both Norway, Sweden, and Denmark in 2024.If you take Real Estate there, we are now in a more normalized environment, but there is also CPI adjustment there, plus some underlying, let's say, optimization, optimizations of the product and product mix, and so on, both in the Norway and in Finland. In Jobs, CPI adjustment in Norway, plus also there, as I commented on here before, that we are working now on this more effect-based models and value-based pricing. That can also be a contributing factor to additions on top of the CPI adjustments.And then there are also, I forgot to mention in Mobility, at least in Sweden, we are doing also some adjustments on the private side.
And if I can add some comment on News Media. In this quarter, you actually delivered a 13% EBITDA margin and still, you are maintaining your guidance of 10% to 12%. I understand that you're selling the business, so probably not that of great importance. But where are we really on the cost side or on the cost-cutting initiatives? And are you not being ambitious on the potential in News Media? And why have you not revised the guidance?
I can maybe answer that. Well, we are delivering well on that program. We said we would deliver NOK 250 million to NOK 300 million this year, and we delivered NOK 290 million, NOK 90 million of those in the fourth quarter. And so -- but I think it's also important to remember that, let's say, that how media margin works in the cycles. Q1 is normally lower margin, tougher, and then Q4 is often the best quarter. So you need to see it in light of that as well. So I think we have very strong ambitions and a very healthy News Media operation and now at least, they're incredibly operationally sound and efficient when they decide to restructure, et cetera, like they have done now.But it is a continuous challenge with a constant transition. And even if we have 1 quarter with 13%, I wouldn't just say sort of then that, that work is over. It's a constant battle, let's say, of transformation. So I think you have to see it in that light.
Thanks, Ole Martin. I think we have maybe a couple of minutes before I have to round up here. So just looking at the written questions which came in. I think first, capital allocation. If you exclude the current net debt of roughly NOK 4 billion, NOK 5 billion, can you confirm that the big majority of the proceeds from the 2 transactions will be allocated to pay out to shareholders? It's the first questions. And maybe related to this, a little bit looking at the tools which we look into. There's a question if you've also looked into, for example, scrip dividend as an alternative to pay down proceeds to shareholders.
You can do it.
So yes. So after we have strengthened our balance sheet, we haven't sort of disclosed exactly how much we intend to do but somewhere between NOK 0 billion and NOK 5 billion, as you mentioned. The vast majority of the rest will be distributed back to shareholders. Exactly how and when, we will come back to, as I said, once the 2 transactions has been closed. And I can -- rest assured, we are looking at and considering all the different options that we have in the toolbox, assessing them, and listening also to feedback from our investors.
And then maybe going to Growth & Investments. Here, the trends were a bit weak over the last quarters, looking at Lendo and Prisjakt. And looking at 2024 consensus, there is an expectation that EBITDA goes actually up from NOK 290 million to roughly NOK 350 million. Do you still think it's realistic given the current trends or is it like an area where you think we should be more cautious going forward looking at the outlook?
Yes. So I can take that. We don't give a specific guidance on Growth & Investments or Lendo specifically. But what I said also under the outlook section is the current trends are not looking so good. And at the moment, we don't really have a good visibility on when things will improve. So if things doesn't change, we will, of course, do what we can to mitigate on the cost side, but there are limits on how much you can do. So I think you should just put those different messages into perspective and then look at the development that you expect for '24.
Okay. I think then we can have one more question here on Teams from Pete before we have to round up today for a town hall given like the news from Kristin this morning. So Pete, last question from you, please. Go ahead.
The last one is on the transactional model and Tori. So where do you have AOV for Tori at the moment? And is it likely that the transactional launch is going to coincide with the full move to the new tech platform? So I think you mentioned like Q1 end or something that are these things to be linked somehow?
Yes, they are linked. I mean we are moving to the new common platform, which is based on the FINN platform. So we're kind of using the transactional solution from Norway going into Finland. But we are launching Tori now. We are in progress of launching Tori now without the transactional solution first and then adding or enabling it a little bit later in the quarter.I don't have the exact average order value for Tori, but I expect it to be closer to what we see in FINN because in Finland, we have a high engagement and a lot of volume around fashion, family type categories, and so on with a lower order value, which are also more suited to transactions. So we have high hopes for that launch, but let's see.
Okay. Then I think thank you so much for engaging on Teams this morning. And I think this concludes our Q&A for today.
Yes. Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.