Protector Forsikring ASA

OSE:PROT

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q1

[Henrik Høye, executive]

Hello, and welcome to the presentation of the first quarter of 2022 results from Protector Forsikring.

We always start with what we see as the most important in our company, our DNA, our culture. And we have something we call EDI Week, equality, diversity and inclusion. This week, we've just had a meeting with all employees in Protector, and introduced the work that has been done in the organization in including equality, diversity and inclusion in our value definitions.

So today, we will obviously focus on profitable growth, the third out of our 4 main targets. And the highlights are 97% combined ratio. Comparing that to last year's quarter 1 results, we need to adjust for large losses. We've had more than normal level of large losses in quarter 1 2022, had less in quarter 1 2021. We adjust for that and runoff and the estimated corona effect, which was positive in 2021 and is neutral or zero in 2022. The result is 2 percentage points better in 2022 than 2021. I'll get back to the claims later.

On the growth side, that is old news. We have disclosed the 1st of January growth previously and it is driven by Scandinavia, of course, and both price increases and a high renewal rate, but also new sales, especially in public sector segment.

On the investment side, is a fairly flat result but a lot of activity, and I will also get back to that later.

The Board has decided to distribute NOK 1.50 per share as a dividend. And we are, in general, comfortable with the portfolio and also the profitability even though it is in the high end and we are behind on that side. Other than that, there's only one small piece of information on the reinsurance side that we have adjusted our solvency-based reinsurance agreement slightly. And that is due to the fact that we believe in our portfolio, we want to cede as little as possible but still have the protection that the solvency-based reinsurance agreement gives us. So we have reduced that by 8 percentage points. It's basically an improvement of terms, in our opinion.

So if I go to the claims update, in total here, I said that on the combined ratio side, we are 2 percentage points better if you adjust for large losses, runoff and COVID in 2022 compared to 2021. On the claims ratio side, it is basically the same because the cost ratio is 2 percentage points better in '22 compared to '21. And you could expect that it should be better and not the same compared to 2021 due to price increases. But I think that is best explained by looking at the different countries because there are a lot of movements that are different from the previous quarter there. And if I -- I'll get to that when I look at the different countries on the combined ratio side. But just on the large losses, we've had one very large loss in Sweden, a fire. That is a normal loss in our portfolio, will happen every now and then. And then we've had some storms, both in Denmark and in the U.K. and a few medium-sized losses below the level we see here, which is above NOK 10 million. So everything on the large loss side, which is volatile, this is about 4 claims above NOK 10 million. It's about 4 claims between NOK 5 million and NOK 10 million. So it's a very volatile situation.

And then at that point, I also want to emphasize that when you look at 1 quarter, also on a company level, 1 percentage point on the combined ratio is only NOK 13 million. So it is volatile, especially on a country-by-country level, but also on a company level.

If we look at the volume, I said that this is old news. There is one thing that looks strange. It is U.K., and we have communicated previously that we -- there was one of the large clients that changed inception. So the underlying growth is different. In addition, the quarter is very small in the U.K. That one client is approximately NOK 50 million, and we have communicated that previously.

So the growth and the volume is driven by the Nordics in quarter 1, and it's mainly January 1. New sales comes mainly from public sector. Renewals have been strong, both on the retention side. So the number you see 90%, needs to be adjusted for the change in inception on the U.K. client. So it is higher in the Nordics and is then driven by a good retention of clients, but also price increases above inflation.

When we look at the country-by-country metrics, what I think is important to inform about regarding the 97% combined ratio, which is behind our long-term target, is that in Norway, the property and casualty products are doing well. It is on the employee benefit side, especially group life and other illness, where the combined ratio is on the high side. Other illness is a product where we don't have a lot of new sales, long tail. It is volatile, especially on a quarterly basis.

In Sweden, it is obvious that the very large loss, if you adjust for that, you will get to a combined ratio that looks more like what Sweden had in 2021. The underlying profitability is strong. That also goes for Norway, by the way.

In Denmark, there is a slightly different situation. The combined ratio is very high due to a runoff loss on the workers' comp side. That is not important. We don't sell that as a single product anymore. More importantly is to look at the business that we run and where we grow. There, you have a motor product running well, combined ratio close to 80%. But on the property side, we have had slightly more than normalized large losses and a storm. However, we are behind on increasing prices. So you've seen that previously when we showed the country-by-country price increase situation. So we are behind on price increases relative to inflation, and that is a focus area and action, and we are increasing prices more as we speak in Denmark. We are communicating that to the market.

In the U.K., there is a strong number. In 2021, profitability was poor. We said that was due to too many or too large, large losses, so a higher-than-normalized large loss share. In quarter 1, that large loss share is slightly lower than normalized. But if you normalize for the large losses, we are still at a strong level around our long-term guiding.

Finland is strong but small. So the totality here is that we are comfortable with the profitability. It will improve in the quarters to come, and our long-term guiding is a good guiding to follow when you look at the full year.

Then over to quality. We have fresh survey from Scandinavia, Norway, Sweden, Denmark. The brokers in those countries have given us feedback again. And as you remember, we had a setback last time we did this survey. We have had lots of meetings to understand what to prioritize in order to improve towards the brokers, and some of them have worked. But we are not where we want to be in all countries. We are back on top in Norway. We are a step-up in Sweden and Denmark. But the important part lies in the numbers underneath and the work we do with the brokers and with the whole organization in order to make sure that we, for the long term, become the preferred partner for our brokers.

So these are very fresh. We have barely seen them ourselves and not really analyzed, but we wanted to inform you that it is going in the right direction. And especially in Denmark, which was at the lowest level previously. So that's a positive part of this.

I can also mention -- I forgot to mention on the volume side that 1st of April is a big date in the U.K. and the start to quarter 2 is good on the volume side.

And then over to another part of our core business, investments. It looks like a flat result and a poor result. But relative to the market, this is good. The stock markets in the Nordics have been down by 13% or 14% in the same period. This is flat. And I think the important message here is, as always, this is long term, a quarter is nothing. But there has been a lot of activity, obviously. So since the real turbulence started 24th of February, on the equity side, we have 12 new companies in our portfolio. And as you know, our equity portfolio consists of fairly few companies. So it's a big increase there. And the net buy of equities has been NOK 300 million since that date.

There has also been a lot of activity on the fixed income side with a positive result for Protector. And as you can see, the yield has increased. That is mainly due to the reference rate increasing as you can also see in the table here.

And then over to the balance sheet and solvency. Post dividend, we are at 200% compared to 206% at year-end. But as you remember, there was a reduction that we talked about at year-end of our Tier 1 restricted debt that we paid back in March. So the real number was 199%. So we're basically at the same level. And when it comes to the requirements here. We have a slight increase in requirements because of a cost benefit analysis on put options for equities where we have not renewed in this quarter, a part of it. But then there is an opposite effect from lower risk in the fixed income portfolio.

And on the capital side, we have a positive effect from the increased interest rate and then, of course, we've subtracted the dividend here. So those are the biggest changes in our solvency side. And then we have the profit and loss. We've been through the figures here. And dividend, I have talked about.

So then we are at the summary. And I think that the summary is obviously the same figures as it was in the highlights from the beginning. But my most important message today is that we understand that 97% can create some concern on the combined ratio side. We are not concerned. When it comes to inflation, we are curious. We work on it. We implement in renewals, in new sales, and we think we understand that well. So we are not concerned about the underlying profitability in the company. So I would urge you to look at the longer picture and believe what we say here. And then let's come back when we present results going forward.

And then we are at questions. So Amund, have we received any questions?

[Amund Skoglund, executive]

Not very many. So only 2, and you could still keep them coming. But with -- yes, you are still managing to get high price increases and have a high retention, as you said. How would you say that your acceptance rate is compared with the market in general, your competitors.

[Henrik Høye, executive]

It is correct, I guess, it's some kind of a statement in the question as well. And I can confirm that there is an environment where it is possible to get acceptance for high price increases. And the main reason is, of course, the uncertainty around inflation and the increased inflation that we experience and see.

[Amund Skoglund, executive]

Would you be able to say something more about expectations for volume in 2022 as Scandinavia has 14% local currency growth in Q1, and U.K. was starting well in Q2?

[Henrik Høye, executive]

What I can say is that -- it's basically repeating what I said earlier, but I can be a bit more precise, saying that you see 11% in local currency growth, quarter 1 over quarter 1. And if you adjust for that change of inception in the U.K. client, we're closer to 14% local currency on the total. And quarter 2 has started well. That means both for the 1st of April inception date in the U.K., where we know exactly what the volume will be. And public sector has had a much better hit ratio than previous years, where we have experienced low hit ratios due to low prices. We have done the same type of pricing, same margin view. And we have a higher hit ratio. So the market has been changing there.

In addition to that, we have had a lot of activity, especially in Norway and Sweden on the new sales side. And we see that there are opportunities that will come our way, but they will come gradually throughout the year and also into next year. So I would think, look at what has happened in quarter 1. And if we say that the start of quarter 2 is good, then you are pretty close.

[Amund Skoglund, executive]

One more question on the bond portfolio. You now see that the yield has increased and the Norwegian bank has said that they will continue to increase the underlying rate. How will that affect your earnings?

[Henrik Høye, executive]

And so in -- I did mention one effect on the solvency side, a positive effect there. But of course, that will affect the earnings in a positive way. And it depends if we go slightly more -- slightly longer on the duration, how quickly that earnings effect will come because we are floating mostly at the end of quarter 1.

[Amund Skoglund, executive]

I have no further questions, but they can still come in at [e-mail], and they will be answered by e-mail.

[Henrik Høye, executive]

Thank you very much for listening in, and I hope you understand somewhat more following the presentation, and I wish you a good day. Thank you.