Petronor E&P ASA

OSE:PNOR

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Jens Pace, executive]

Good morning. My name is Jens Pace. I'm the interim CEO of PetroNor E&P. And it's my pleasure to be back here in Oslo to present the company's third quarter results. We put out a report earlier this morning, and I have a few slides to add a little bit more color to that. And I will be taking questions afterwards. So please send them in.

Before we get into the slides, I just wanted to draw your attention to this picture of the Tchendo platform that was in the report we sent out. You'll be used to people standing in front of the camera talking about bits of kit. But I wanted to draw your attention to it for a couple of reasons here. First of all, this is kind of evidence of continued investment in our assets in the Congo. It's also a repurposed old jack-up. So it's about efficiency really of reusing kit in a different way in order to reduce costs and be more efficient in our investment.

And it has 2 purposes when it gets down in the field, which we hope will be around mid-December. It has a number of power generation turbines. So it will add hugely to the power capacity of the field, which will improve water injection and reservoir management. And it's also a wellhead platform. It has 14 well slots, 6 of which we hope to use next year with infill drilling on the Tchendo field. So we're very excited about that, and it's evidence really of an investment phase that we're currently in, in the Congo with the infill drilling program. And I'll tell you a little bit more about that in a minute here.

First of all, the usual disclaimer, which I'll let you read at your leisure. So the third quarter really is -- it's a good quarter, but production is pretty flat to the average that was established during the first half, and it's really more about what's happened since the end of the quarter.

So net working interest oil production was about 5,100 barrels a day. But our current net production, if we look at the daily reports today is 6,000 barrels of oil per day. And this shows the effect of the new infill wells that were drilled earlier this year that came online shortly after the end of the quarter. So we're very excited about the response of the reservoir that we're exploiting here and 6,000 barrels a day, which was something that I said we were kind of banging on the door of last time I presented.

Now we can actually say that on a daily basis, we've been hitting that target, and there's more to come. So we've also been turning this production into cash. And in terms of the entitlement barrels after we've paid our taxes to the government in the Congo, we've sold 1.2 million barrels of oil so far this year, which is a record. We've never sold that much before.

And we've realized $94 million through those sales. And we have an additional lifting of 360,000 barrels that's scheduled in early December. So that will bring our total above 1.5 million barrels this year, which is phenomenal, really.

Also in terms of cash, contribution, we're close to completing the farm-out of the Guinea-Bissau acreage and the consideration of over $25 million for this year will be completed soon. The licenses have been transferred with government approval, and we're just working out a couple of more details before that payment comes through. We've also announced in the -- during the beginning of the fourth quarter an agreement to acquire New Age's interest in the Aje field, which is -- which helps us align the partnership group and gives us more influence in the development planning that we are currently undertaking there. So we're excited about the developments in that project.

And then perhaps a little more on the disappointing side, we've had the results from the Senegal license arbitration. This is a long-running legacy dispute. And the ICSID tribunal has rejected our claims on the Senegal licenses. So we have lost those licenses. I'll remind you, we had 2 of these arbitration processes running, 1 in the Gambia, 1 in Senegal.

In Gambia, we were able to settle and secure a license. It didn't work in Senegal, and we have to move on. So look at some of the numbers here from the report that we sent out and cash in the bank at the moment is just shy of $24 million. On a net basis, with the small amount of debt we have is $17 million. We've been paying that down.

And on an accounting basis, our gross assets are $210 million. So the revenue, which includes the tax that we provide to the government that we've earned from our oil sales is $112.6 million and it compares very favorably when you look at the kind of numbers we had last year, gives us an EBITDA of $71.1 million.

I think the chart on the right-hand side of the slide kind of tells the story, which is the liftings and the oil sales that we have achieved in comparison to last year and the year before. And you can see that we are already, as I said before, at about 1.2 million barrels. And with the lifting that's planned in December, that will take us well over 1.5 million barrels.

Average oil price that we've had so far for those sales is just shy of $80 million -- $80 a barrel, and we will wait to see what the average price is on the December lifting in the first week. This chart shows the use of cash through the year. And basically, the cash position is fairly flat from the beginning of the year.

The cash has been largely reinvested into the CapEx program in the Congo. And so this has been quite a significant investment year for us. Our total CapEx for reinvestment is about $44 million. And so there's $17 million, $18 million left to spend in our forecast for the remainder of the year. As we look forward to next year, the CapEx is somewhat less than that.

So we're expecting that it will be -- it will not have a new platform in it. For instance, it will just really have the infrastructure associated with the infill drilling program on Tchendo. So it will be -- there'll be more room available for cash coming from the asset.

A little bit of investment in our exploration portfolio. Leakage of dividends to our minority shareholders in the Congo subsidiary and some loan repayments, which brings -- completes the picture here. Those of you, who follow PetroNor, will be familiar with this slide. It's a snapshot of how we look at the portfolio, the production bases in Congo Brazzaville in the PNGF Sud license.

Gross field production at the moment is 35,000 barrels of oil -- barrels -- 35,000 barrels per day. That is actually producing at a level that hasn't been achieved in that field for over 12 years, which shows that even though it's a mature asset, it's responding well to the current investment and the well capacity that's been added.

It's high-margin production with OpEx at about $9 per barrel. So this is a very valuable asset, and operated by a very competent mature field operator, Perenco. As we move to the redevelopment project in Nigeria, the Aje field. We're consolidating our position there, as I mentioned, through the New Age acquisitions, our second acquisition following our entry into the license through the acquisition of Panoro's interest, which gives us a controlling influence now in the redevelopment plan, which we see as having the potential for 25,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

It's mainly a gas field. And that's important because gas displaces the use of heavy fuel oil and diesel for power generation and uses onshore. So it's considered a transition fuel and is valuable for Africa. And then looking at exploration, focused program now down to our Gambia A4 license, which we're very excited about. It's in a proven basin, on trend with some large discoveries that are coming online in the course of the next year or so. And we've got a number of large prospects with over 1 billion-barrel potential in aggregate.

So 20 million barrels of net 2P reserves and about twice that in 2C and production of about 6,000 barrels of oil per day at the moment, so some pretty good statistics there. Focusing a little bit on the Congo. The field complex of PNGF Sud is about 2 billion barrels originally in place and about 500 million barrels that are produced to date, and we think that there's probably about as much to produce as has already been produced. So we're about halfway through that development cycle.

And there's been a great track record established since 2017, when we entered the license of adding production through workovers of existing wells and also adding infill capacity -- well capacity to the infrastructure. Of the current campaign that we have planned of 17 infill wells, we have drilled 11. All of them have exceeded our expectations in terms of production contribution. And so we're looking forward to continuing that with the Tchendo program in 2024.

Also in 2024, we have a follow-up to a well, which we deepened in the Tchibeli Northeast field to a deeper reservoir, which was an exploration target, which resulted in a discovery and Vandji formation. We've planned a second well into the Vandji in the same area in the early part of next year. So we're looking forward to building on that exploration discovery and seeing if we can add more to production through that.

The chart on the bottom right shows you kind of the history here of production, about 17,000 barrels of oil per day in 2017. And as we stand here today, it's at 35,000 barrels of oil per day. And you can see that the contribution of the different reservoirs as we've added well capacity in different fields.

Looking at that story a little bit, we're focused on this year and next year. You can see the quarter-by-quarter breakdown here. And you can see that the Q3 is essentially flat with the raised average that was established earlier in the year with the results of wells we drilled in 2021, '22. And as we look forward, we see the continued contribution from these new wells that drilled this year. And with a strong fourth quarter, we expect a really good exit rate of -- on average of just shy of 6,000 barrels of oil per day for the quarter in this year.

And as we look forward to 2024, we'll probably see some natural decline prior to the Tchendo wells being put online towards the end of the year. So we'll look forward to seeing how that plays out.

Looking at Aje in a little bit more detail. You can see the location of the block and the discovery the Aje field, just south of Lagos, which is a very large population center and needs energy. So through the -- we're mainly focused on commercial activity at the moment of consolidating our position. We're yet to complete the transaction with YFP, the field operator, to form the joint venture, Aje Production, AS. That we hope will complete in the next few weeks. It's just procedural going forward. And then that will give us a majority share in this joint venture holding a significant portion of the license, about 38% of the license.

And the agreement with New Age, when it completes, and it could take some time before it completes, would give us an additional 32% or so, which gives us a controlling position. Certainly with YFP, we have a voting control over the partnership now.

Having said that, we're working very constructively with the partners on the development plan, which involves getting a new FPSO with -- or rather an old FPSO that's been repurposed for gas handling with gas processing capacity, drilling 4 to 5 wells or side tracking some of the existing wells stock to exploit both gas and liquids and a 30-kilometer pipeline to shore with an onshore LPG plant as well, which has its own active market in the region.

So that's really more about kind of commercial activity and planning at this stage, quite a lot of work. But on the actual project in terms of technical work right now, we have been reprocessing the 3D seismic covering the field in readiness for picking those well locations. And that is very near to completion now. We expect that will be done by the end of the year, and we wanted to get that done as quickly as possible because it's effectively a long lead item in moving forward with the development, which we hope will make a firm concept selection next year -- in the early part of next year and then move to a final investment decision before the end of the year.

To underpin that, we're also having very positive discussions about project finance with sources of capital that are aligned with the idea of gas as a transition fuel for the region and that being kind of consistent with their strategies to help Africa with those kind of developments.

Just a point on the right-hand side here of the scale of this project, it's a fairly modest accumulation of gas, about 0.5 Tcf, but it's close to the shore and it's also very close to the West African gas pipeline infrastructure.

There's about 17 million barrels of condensate and 5 million barrels of oil. 5 million barrels have already produced in the previous development of Aje. So there's about as much as that left. There's significant exploration potential in the license as well and in the area, which we don't talk about a lot because our focus is on trying to get the core asset up and running first.

But that and the surrounding discoveries that have been made both to the East and West mean that there's a potential for this to develop into a regional hub as we move forward. So once you get 1 development going here, I think it will -- there will be opportunities to add value to it.

And then we look at exploration. And so this is very much a focusing portfolio now. Although we are exposed to the upside in Guinea-Bissau with deferred payments on a field development plan being approved and first oil, our -- we're essentially no longer part of that license and expect the receipt of just over $25 million in the course of the next few weeks.

The Senegal arbitration essentially removes the -- our claim over the Senegal position, and we're focused on the Gambia now. We're working with our partner, GNPC, to refine our interpretation of the prospectivity. We've always viewed this area is highly prospective. But we've acquired a new version of 3D data over the area, and we're integrating that with the new wells to -- we hope to further reduce the exploration risk, which is going to help us in our partnering program. We have a data-room open and several companies that have signed NDAs to look at that.

So my last slide here. It's -- we're basically on track for a fantastic year for PetroNor in terms of operational and financial delivery. And that's kind of underpinned largely by the Congo assets and we've been able to achieve regular liftings of turning that production into cash flow. We've demonstrated that this infill drilling program is a very attractive investment, and we see a long-term future in this asset, which is giving us very high-margin production.

The Aje development plan is advancing with partners, and we're pleased with the progress there. And I think that the farm-out of Guinea-Bissau adds further to our balance sheet. So we have I think with the financial capacity through those activities to execute an organic growth strategy and essentially reinvest in these assets in a fully funded basis.

But we -- as I mentioned before, we really don't have much debt so we see the potential for some leverage on the Congo assets if we see an accretive business development activity that we want to move forward with, and we are still looking at these opportunities. But if we don't find those kind of opportunities that I don't think my board are going to sit there and let me sit on a pile of cash.

So we are looking at other options for rewarding shareholders, and we'll revisit that in 2024 once our audited accounts have been done for the new [ topco ] PetroNor E&P ASA, and we can have that discussion then. But some sort of dividend or stock buyback is being considered by the Board. So with that, I conclude my presentation, but I'd be very happy to answer any questions that you have.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you, Jens. We have 4 questions from Teodor Sveen-Nilsen at Sparebank 1 Markets. And I will ask them one by one. How do you see the general M&A market for West Africa? Are majors still pursuing divestments? What kind of opportunities do you see?

[Jens Pace, executive]

We've seen a phase of positioning of majors. There's certainly been a number of well-publicized divestments and repositioning. A number of private equity funded companies have also been looking to have their liquidity events that -- and so there have been some sales that have been under discussion in that kind of area. But it's a competitive market.

I think production in Africa is attractive and it's something that we found is difficult for us to compete. But we are confident that we can compete now that we've demonstrated the underlying strength of the portfolio. It helps us in terms of the conversations we're having with sources of capital to give us support. And so I think it's still an active area, and we are looking at opportunities.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. How should we think around gas price for the Aje developments? .

[Jens Pace, executive]

We've been working with -- in our modeling of about $2.75 per Mcf, but we've recently gone out to the markets and made it inquiries to regional buyers of gas and they've all come in significantly above that. Around $3 is probably a fair estimate of where the kind of the current market is. And that's a very attractive economic inputs to the project.

So we're pleased with that, but we haven't really started to negotiate on price yet. We'll do that once we've got the concept pinned down and the schedule pinned down because these are important questions that buyers want to know about before you get into discussions about price, but I'm expecting over $3 a barrel -- $3 per Mcf.

[Unknown Executive]

You have a strong balance sheet. What kind of financial gearing are you aiming for in the long term? .

[Jens Pace, executive]

Well, we're happy that we're debt free. We would only go and acquire debt if we had a purpose for it. And so we -- otherwise, there's probably very little purpose for us to do that. But if we see the right opportunity, then we are in discussions about what the debt capacity on our Congo production would be, and that gives us an understanding of the kind of strength that we could play in that game.

[Unknown Executive]

Do you have any rough guidance for 2024 CapEx and production?

[Jens Pace, executive]

We think our production will be, as I've indicated, around somewhere between 5,500 barrels a day to 6,000 barrels per day. But we will have to see just what the contribution is from the Tchendo infill drilling program, which kind of starts to contribute late in the year. So it may be a repeat of this year in terms of patent with a strong fourth quarter and fairly flat to declining production through the course of the first half and the first 3 quarters of the year.

But we also have the Vandji well in the first quarter of the year, which may surprise us. We'll wait and see. On CapEx, we've been spending about $40 million for the last 2 years in CapEx. I expect that will be significantly less in the course of next year because we're not putting in a new platform. It's just the infill drilling program and a bit of infrastructure to tie that into our gas network.

So CapEx will be around $30 million, and that will -- is a reduction on where we've been in the last couple of years.

[Unknown Executive]

Now we have a question from [indiscernible]. How long will it take from FID on Aje to start of production? And how many years of positive cash flow will it take to cover the CapEx? .

[Jens Pace, executive]

So it depends largely on the concept that we have for the field. You have to remember, we have a gas asset as well as a strong liquid and oil asset. And it may be possible to bring the liquids on quicker than the gas because the gas needs obviously the pipeline to the coast. And so we could envisage cash flow being established within 1.5 years of the final investment decision. But that's something that the partnership needs to decide on once we've seen all of the options on the project.

The gas probably won't come on until -- if we have an FID next year, the gas probably won't come on until the beginning of 2027. Once it's all on, the payback is pretty quick, and we would be looking at paying that back through a finance -- project financed approach, which would be paid back within 3 to 4 years.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. A question from Ganesh Patel. What will be the PetroNor's share from the Aje field from the 25,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day?

[Jens Pace, executive]

Well, if we stay at that -- at the kind of working interest and assuming that the New Age deal kind of completes at our current working interest, we would have about 5,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and we would double that with the New Age acquisition, so around 10,000. .

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. Will PetroNor take any power generation risk in relation to Aje?

[Jens Pace, executive]

It's something we've considered. It's not part of our focus at this stage in terms of getting the project up and running but -- because it's not a core business for us. But it's something that we have looked at plans for and may participate in once we've got more certainty on the project moving forward.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. Another one from Ganesh Patel. Why is there no third-party valuation report for the company available in the market? Market value of the company looks too low. Such type of report will give some light on company's realistic valuation.

[Jens Pace, executive]

Well, I would certainly agree with you that the valuation is too low based on our market account at the moment. This is a company with some fantastic assets, but we are talking to analysts -- all of the Norwegian analysts.

And we are -- so we're hoping that we'll get more news out there and have a broader understanding of the value in the investor community.

[Unknown Executive]

Final question for now from [ Erik Resti ]. Does the Board consider having an extraordinary general meeting in order to get the go ahead to initiate share buybacks and dividends?

[Jens Pace, executive]

We actually have -- in the last AGM, we have already got approval from the shareholders on being able to buy shares. So if there's a stock buyback, then that's something we already have the right level of approval for.

And -- but we will wait and see what the Board decides on the basis of the results in 2024, and I think it will be something that would be happening around the middle of the year. And so probably could be accommodated in our normal cycle.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. That concludes today's session. Thank you all for listening and see you again in February. .

[Jens Pace, executive]

Thank you very much.