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Good morning, everyone. This is John Hamilton, Chief Executive Officer of Panoro. I'm joined today by my colleagues, Richard Morton, Technical Director; Nigel McKim Projects Director; Qazi Qadeer, Group Financial Controller; and [ Andy Diamonds ], Head of Corporate Finance and Communications. Welcome today to our Fourth Quarter 2021 trading and financial update, which also comprises our annual figures, ahead of our annual report, which we published at the end of April. What I always do typically is I'm going to go through the slide that have already been made available on our website and through the Oslo Stock Exchange. And then will be open to some questions, which myself or my colleagues will endeavor to answer your questions that you've got.As a reminder, today's conference call contains certain statements that are or may be deemed to be forward statements, which include all statements other than statements of historical fact. Forward-looking statements involve making certain conclude based on today's experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, expected future developments and other factors that we believe are appropriate under the circumstances. Although we believe that the expectations reflect in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, actual management results may differ materially from those projected or implied in such forward-looking statements due to known or known or unknown risks and uncertainties and other factors.[Operator Instructions] We will hopefully try to answer those questions as well. What we'll probably do is go through and answer the verbal questions first and then address any remaining questions that haven't been already addressed through the question's panel.Next slide, please. Thank you. These are the results highlights. I think they speak for themselves. This has been a very, very big year for us with huge growth in revenue, in EBITDA, in cash from operations, pretty much every metric that you can imagine this company is completely transformed from what you saw exactly 1 year ago. I wouldn't dwell so much on the numbers here. We have a couple of more slides, which come through it. But needless to say, I think that we're in a very, very strong position from a revenue perspective, P&L perspective, cash flow perspective and a balance sheet perspective. At the year-end, we had $24 million in cash and about $40 million in receivables, which we've already received. Those related to a lifting that happens towards the -- 2 things that happened towards the end of the year where the cash was only received in January.Next slide, please. So here it is in a slightly different format. And just to remind people, we' showing our numbers based on IFRS reporting and a pro forma basis. And just to remind people, the difference here really is that we effectively own the new barrels that we bought from Tullow as of the 1st of January 2021. Although we did not complete the transactions until the second quarter, one, it actually right at the end of the quarter and the second in the second quarter.So from an IFRS perspective, we can't book all the revenue that was associated with that until we completed the transaction. But what we're trying to show on a pro forma basis is what it actually looks like from a real perspective, which is we did own the barrels from the 1st of January. So that's why we're trying to show that we will not see this continuing in 2022. We will be purely reporting on an IFRS reporting basis. But in order to kind of demystify all of the major movements and some of the things that were less clear because of the trickiness around the closing of these transactions, we did want to show our shareholders this on a pro forma basis as well. The main items here really are just looking at, again, the cash. And the cash flow is kind of what the main drivers are. Really, I think the best evidence of the strength of this business.Next slide, please. So here's what production looked like. Obviously from 2019, 2020, we've completely transformed the business through positive developments in Gabon, but also through the acquisitions that we made last year this time. We also have provided guidance for next year, which should us 8,000 and 9,000 barrels a day guidance. So an uplift from 2021. None of this is new, this has all been previously guided, including the 2023 target, which sees us trying to exceed 12,500 during 2023 as Hibiscus/Ruche wells start coming on and then we get some additional uplift from Equatorial Guinea as well. None of this is new information, but it's just a graphic way of explaining that we believe we're on an upward trajectory at a time when oil prices are very strong. So we feel that this is an important message to get across that we are growing organically our business here with already identified and approved projects. There's more to come, I think, as well, but this gives you an idea of the trajectory that we're on in the coming 2 years.Next slide, please. So just got a few high-level updates on the business. Equatorial Guinea is, by far and away, our most important production asset at the moment, but Gabon will catch up and become more important. But at the moment, Equatorial Guinea is roughly 60% of our business. And we had a very successful drilling campaign to '21, two new wells on stream. There's a third well, which requires a small side track on it already previously announced. We try and bring that online perhaps even this year, working together with the operator to try ad get that well online as well.New gas lift distribution unit installed at the Ceiba field. And we are working on further growth activities right now with the operator. And a potential drilling -- development drilling campaign is being planned for 2023 and beyond that as well. So these are not yet approved. However, when we entered this asset, we always hoped and expected that the operator would continue to go after the substantial 2P reserves and contingent resources on this asset. And as we get through 2022, I think we will start talking more and more about the upside potential here. But at the moment, the asset is doing extremely well, higher than expectation. And we're very, very pleased with what's going on there with the operator of [ Trident ].In Gabon, our production there, this is production from last year on a pro forma basis with the 2 new production wells having been drilled, and those are now onstream. Production is being optimized during the course of this year. We have some issues with gas lift capacity on the FPSO, which have been previously flagged, and remediation of that is underway. We hope to get those -- these wells offering at full capacity during the course of this year. And then the Hibiscus/Ruche development, which is really what's going to catapult this asset into much bigger asset for us and for Gabon, is underway. At the moment, it's on schedule and on budget. We're looking at first oil from the first couple of wells in Q4 of this year. So you're really going to see further development of our Gabonese acreage.In Tunisia, it's now our smallest asset in terms of production, but remains a very important foundation to the company in terms of its cash flow and its reserves. There is a huge beehive of activity going on there in -- particularly in the Guebiba and Cercina fields. We've had some real successes with workovers and ESP replacements, and we are busy really getting under the hood of the subsurface models of these assets, something that OMV has left unattended for years. And we really are getting after remodeling everything here and trying to accelerate the full potential of these assets. We've done very well since buying them from OMV. Production is up about 30% or 40% from the time we bought them, but we believe there's more to be done.Next slide, please. So just on some of our other assets and ongoings. Sale of OML 113 Aje has now received full presidential consent in Nigeria. We have to wait a long time for that. That is the key condition to completion of that transaction. We're now going through the final completion steps with PetroNor, who are now migrating to ASA, previously Australian Topco. So previously, our intention was dividend $10 million worth of PetroNor shares. Those were going to be depository receipts of an Australian company. However, this will now be Norwegian shares on the main Board of the Oslo Board. So we think that's a positive development. They are going through that procedure now, and that will fall on part of the completion mechanics around this. We'll be making some press releases in due course in terms of trying to zero in on exact completion dates, but it's all underway now.In Gabon, we announced the provisional award of some exciting exploration blocks, which completely surround the key production areas in Southern Gabon in Dussafu where we've been since 2008. We're also around the Okume, which is a more mature development just to the north of us, but we're in a very, very big oil fairway here. And we've been working on this for 2 or 3 years now trying to get into these exploration blocks in and around there. And we have a provisional award, we're negotiating with the government at the moment. We'll make announcements in due course when we're able to formalize those arrangements.Block 2B in South Africa, you will have seen that ECOATLANTIC are the proposing or have bought Azinam. Azinam are the operator of this block. So that's been able to unlock, I think, some of the delay in drilling of this well. We are now hoping to drill this well towards the end of this year together with ECOATLANTIC and Africa Energy.Next slide, please. So I won't dwell too much on this slide, but what we're trying to do is show all the cash flow waterfall, how the cash started at the end of the year, what the major movements were. This is particularly an unusual year, given all the transactions that we did in the raising of equity and debt and paying out of the monies and the cash flows coming from operations. But this is a slide we will continue to show and make sure that -- how cash moves through the system, which is going to be the most important part for analyzing this company, we believe, how that is built up during the course of the year. So expect to see similar slide to this ongoing from us.The text box that around hedging, just to make a point that, at the moment, we have 600 barrels a day hedged for 2022. We have nothing beyond that. That 600 barrels a day, that was for the inflation 2021 as part of our loan requirements for our Tunisian business. But if you look at our production assumptions and guidance for the year, you'll see that we're basically well over 90% unhedged at the moment. Now we do get a lot of questions, particularly with the volatility in the oil price and the strong oil price we see at the moment about hedging.We will look to lock in some of the oil price strength we're seeing towards the second half of the year, oil prices in backwardation now. So you can't hedge at $97 a barrel, but you can certainly hedge at far higher levels than we had previously dreamed about. So we'll probably be looking to put some shorter-term hedges in place around the 2022 lifting schedule. But at the moment, we are entirely -- almost entirely exposed to the oil price developments that you're seeing.Next slide, please. Again, we're trying to be as transparent as possible. We've provided these slides before. There's nothing really new here on the capital expenditure side. 2021 capital expenditure came in lower than our guidance, and that's simply a timing issue. So some of that is now migrated into 2022. Most of this is -- 2022 guide is already guided CapEx on Dussafu. BW and Marcellus have been very transparent in terms of those numbers. Nothing has changed there, perhaps some small timing things around the balance sheet dates, the timing dates, but the numbers remain the same.Equatorial Guinea, we are actually spending some more money here, and this is a positive thing. We're spending some capital on the projects and some CapEx there. Some of that is long lead items for a possible drilling campaign in 2023, but most of this is going towards smaller production growth activities in Equatorial Guinea this year. So we're very, very pleased to see that. It's always what we wanted when we entered that asset, is to have some money reinvested in the asset to bring out the tail. Most -- when we bought the asset in Equatorial Guinea, we assumed no further investment. Most of the analysts I know are assuming we've had basically no further investment, and therefore, production drops off a cliff in a few years -- not a cliff, but it declines without any remediation. And what we always hoped and now we're seeing is that the partnership is interested in continuing to grow this production base.We also show our loans. Nothing's changed here. This is a simple reserve-based loan. So it's a principal thing, not a very aggressive amortization profile and we have no looming bond repayments or bullet repayments. These are very sensible and conservatively structured loans that pay out over a number of times. We can accelerate repayment of these if we would choose to. But as you can see, it's not a particularly aggressive amortization profile.Next slide, please. So on lifting schedule, as a reminder, we recognize revenue when we lift barrels, not as we produce barrels. So in terms of looking at volatility of our quarterly numbers, we're always trying to get people to look at least 6 months or preferably 12 months when they're making assumptions about us because it can be a huge amount of volatility. If you just look at 2021, you can see that we had absolutely crazy fourth quarter to third quarter. We had almost nothing.This year, there's going to be a little bit more balanced to it, but it's still quite heavily weighted towards second half of the year. That's what we intend to lift the barrels. Now this could change a little bit. We will continue to update the market as we get more information. This is our best estimate at the moment of our lifting schedule for this year. As you can see, we'll probably be lifting about 50% more this year than we did last year. I think it will be second half weighted, but it's important to remember that our quarterly numbers sometimes can be quite volatile as you saw last year. This year, we'll be a similar dynamic, and we'd encourage everybody to look at us on a long-term basis than simply the quarterly reporting that we are obliged to do.Next slide, please. So we're trying to demonstrate what free cash looks like this year. And what we've done is we plot it on the left there and oil price assumption for this year. We're not brave enough to type in $95 here, but you can see the trend here in terms of the free cash flow that we expect to be able to generate at varying oil prices and what that means against our market capitalization in terms of expresses of free cash flow yield.And as you can see, now with oil prices being strong and our production solid and growing, that we are able to generate significant free cash flow even in a year where arguably this is our big CapEx year with Dussafu. We're still going to be generating significant amounts of free cash flow. Free cash flow defined as cash flow after capital expenditure, after tax, after operating costs but before debt repayments.And in terms of our capital allocation priorities, we are absolutely committed to paying a sustainable quarterly cash dividend as soon as possible. We get a lot of questions about when that might be and retain our language around that, which we want to bring that forward to as soon as possible. We're just looking at that lifting schedule and trying to make sure we do start something at a time when we can continue to do it and do it in a degree of confidence and comfort. We also -- obviously, we look to repay our debt, which we have an obligation to do, but it's also -- it could be the right thing to do from a capital management perspective. We plan to continue sustain and grow CapEx. So this is more a story for 2023 and beyond, but we're already spending quite a bit of money on CapEx this year. But capital allocation will also prioritize, making sure that we continue to fill the hopper back up, produce new barrels, generate additional cash flow and really smooth out or perhaps even grow the production curve that most analysts have in their models now, which again shows a decline after 2024. It's our job to fill that back up through smart capital expenditure.And of course, we continue to look at growth at the moment with oil prices where they are. Asset prices are similarly high. We have to be careful that we do things that are accretive for us and for our shareholders. But we continue to look at opportunities as long as they are accretive and often opportunistic.Next slide, please. What we've attempted to do here is to look at where we see our crystal ball. There are a lot of uncertainties in the world, of course, and -- but nonetheless, we have very good visibility over the next 4 years in terms of at least a baseline of our production and our business, and that has to do with the coming online of the Hibiscus/Ruche. It has to do with what's happening in Equatorial Guinea.And we try and look at that as -- against a couple of different oil prices, we used $65 and $85 here to demonstrate what we think the free cash flow is for the next 12 months in the sort of orange as we get into the red there over the 36 months of 2023 through 2025. And in the blue, they kind of put it all up. And I think the conclusions are self-evident. We could be generating a lot of cash over the next 4 years. And against our current market capitalization, I don't think that's -- our capitalization is challenging at all. And the free cash flow yields are extremely high. I don't know sector beating, but we're certainly be at the top end, I would have thought. And that really just comes down to the strength of our business, the fiscal terms that we have and the operating cost of the assets that we have.And we're also not a terminal business. So 2025, it's not like the lights turn off and the cash flow goes to zero. We have so much remaining to be reserved at that point. We have contingent resources. We have lots of things we believe we could do in Equatorial Guinea Block G. There's more things to do at Dussafu undoubtedly, and there are other potential opportunities out there. So again, this is a long-term business we're in. We have a very long reserve life here. But if you just look at the next 4 years, I don't think you will be amazed at our share price at the moment. It really is quite unchallenging in our view.Next slide, please. This is a summary slide, and then we'll turn over to some questions. This is a summary slide that we're using when we're talking to shareholders or analysts a little bit at the moment, which is taking a step back a little bit from all the details, just the strength that we believe we have in this company at the moment. If I start with the blue, we believe we have a very high quality asset-based long reserve life on it, low operating cost per barrel all set in favorable taxation regimes.We look at the light blue, we have organic reserves growth. So we have active development programs in all of our assets. We have exploration assets, which continue to add additional resource to our company.Coming into the yellow, all of these activities housed within the Norwegian mainboard-listed company that has, in our opinion, very strong governance and very good financial discipline, low leverage ratios, a lean structure. So we believe that all this opportunity is housed in a very sensible company with a very, very good strong shareholder base and financial support from our lenders.And on top of that, we have visible production growth. So it depends on your view, of course, of oil price, but we are growing our production into a time of high macro oil prices. So this is not a declining business. This is a growing business as we speak.So with that, I will finish off my story and turn it over to any questions if there are any. [Operator Instructions]
John, the first question from Stephane Foucaud is given the current high oil crisis, what needs to happen for the Block G joint venture in Equatorial Guinea to sanction further in for a drilling activity?
It's a really good question. Stephane, what I'd say is that if you look at the reserve base, the contingent resource base, which we've talked about a lot in Equatorial Guinea, when we bought the asset, we had to assume -- when oil was $45, we had to assume nothing else would really happen. We knew that the operator had spent 3 years a lot of capital to improved infrastructure that they had taken over from them, a lot of Hess. That's been a lot of time and money just maintaining a flat line of production and improving the deliverability and the infrastructure of those assets. And 2021 was the first year that they drilled any new wells. We talked about 2 wells. And that was the first hint that we have. The operator and the joint venture together with the government, we're looking at growing production for the first time. Now that's been achieved, and that was our kind of our hint that the operator was going to do things. We couldn't assume they're going to do anything worse. So we plan for nothing else, really.What's happening now is we're really benefiting from 4D seismic on this asset, and there are many opportunities remaining on this block. So what needs to happen, the joint venture needs to agree and work both on the budget. Those have been well scoped out by the joint venture partners. There needs to be some dialogue with the government in respect of that work program, which is a typical thing that happens annually, and those conversations are ongoing. So it's really just a question of lining everybody up, all the stakeholders, including the government in respect of a forward-looking workbook on the budget. It's already been approved for 2022, which, as I suggested, is going to see a lot of activity that will yield production growth from where we were last year. The big question is when will we get after bringing a drilling rig in -- and that could be as early as 2023. We hope it will be. But it just needs a little bit more time to work with the government on exactly how that works and when that's going to happen.All right. I don't know, Andy, I don't know that there are so many more questions. I know that we have -- I think there's some school holidays also in Norway.
Another question submitted online with regards to Dussafu. Can you provide an update on the current status of the gas lift capacity situation at Dussafu? And have operations been restored following the planned maintenance shutdown in January? And is the time frame for the installation of new gas lift compression unchanged at Dussafu? That question is from [indiscernible].
Yes. So as flagged by BW who announced tomorrow, I believe, as well. So you may get some additional color from them as well tomorrow. There was a plant shutdown. That's all fine. Production has been restored. So that's all going to plan. The gas lift compression project is still ongoing. We have no additional guidance on that at the moment other than, say, that it's underway. Production on the field has been strong. It's been held back, as we know, because of the lack of the compression. So it's not operating its full capacity, but the asset is doing quite well.We're not quite in a position to give an update on the exact timing of the big solution on the gas lift compression. It's possible that BW tomorrow may be drawn out to say a little bit more. But at the moment, progress is underway.
A question over the phone from Oddvar Bjørgan.
Well, a question about CapEx. Of course, you are guiding $65 million for '22, and you still have a very impressive free cash flow already in 2022. But could you give us a very rough indication of what kind of CapEx you're looking at in 2023?
Sure. Well, 2023 at the moment, we have the last part of the Hibiscus/Ruche development. So I think we previously got it. If I remember, Oddvar, you have in your model assumed CapEx in 2023. Most of the analysts also have that in their models, and that simply relates to the Hibiscus/Ruche development. It's ongoing now. First oil is in mid of this year, but we're going to be drilling wells on -- drilling wells all the way through the first half of next year. So you still have room there. I don't believe we've put out a number on it, but what I would say is your estimates have been -- are accurate and because a number of analysts also follow BW. I think these have been well followed. There's no change to that.The -- Tunisia might have some CapEx, but it's going to be reasonably small, particularly in relation to Hibiscus/Ruche, Dussafu. And in Equatorial Guinea, I think you should assume some CapEx, but we just don't know what it is yet. Again, we're trying to solidify plans for next year, but what we'd like to see is additional drilling on that asset, and that will require us some CapEx.So will CapEx be as high next year as this year? Probably not, but it would be good to assume some additional CapEx in 2023, which should then also have -- this is kind of CapEx that's going to grow production. So you have to make adjustments to both. When we look at our free cash flow assumptions we've given you, it's kind of on a only what's already been identified basis. We're not assuming any additional production from anything that might happen in Equatorial Guinea. We're also not assuming that there's large amounts of capital expenditure for that either. So a few moving parts in there. But I think if you assume some CapEx in 2023, it's probably not a bad idea, but we're not quite ready to guide on it yet.
Okay. Maybe another one, if there are time.
Sure.
Maybe if you could have a comment on the general M&A market. I understand it's difficult to be specific here, but could you give us a brief update on how you see this market? Do you still see larger oil companies looking to sell out to African oil assets driven by their newfound love in renewables?
Yes. We are definitely seeing it in -- we're seeing it the world around, of course, but we're seeing it in Africa as well. Normal disposals that majors are always done. That trend continues. You also have, as you say, the sort of move towards energy transition and the desire to perhaps accelerate those disposals. We're definitely seeing activity. The M&A market is characterized by -- obviously, oil prices have gone up, which makes finding really deals like the one we did last year, perhaps more difficult. So we're being -- we're happy to be very, very choosy, but there's definitely deals in the market and deals that we expect to come to the market. Now some of those are extremely trending large. Exxon and Shell have announced big transactions in Nigeria. Those are not for us. Those are multibillion-dollar transactions, but it gives you a hint that there's probably more of that to come. The issue, of course, is financial capacity, which companies could buy these assets. The oil markets are now strong, and people's cash flows are strong, but there's been a lack of capital available to the sector for such a long time. And that trend is improved now with the higher oil price, but still remains challenged, I would say. Not every bank wants to lend into the sector at the moment. So you're finding that I think an interesting dynamic where there's a limited universe of buyers that actually have the capital to do these things. You've got lots of assets that are coming for sale, but their sellers' expectations are high. So if you want to watch, Oddvar, the M&A market is there. I just don't know whether all of these transactions will close in the way sellers expect them to. And I think people happen to be creative, so you're finding sellers having to retain equity in the business, perhaps we're having to finance it. We're seeing a lot of the majors having to finance the sale of their own business by providing loans and contingent payments and deferred payments. So you're having -- you're seeing a lot more creativity coming into the M&A market. I hope that answers your question. But clearly, it's going to be hard for us to pull off something quite like what we did last year, but we -- it's our job to continue to look for those, and we always do.
John, a question from multiple participants is, can you comment on expected timing of Block 2B exploration well in South Africa?
Sure. Well, we've been largely delayed for quite a while now as everybody has probably gotten frustrated to see. That's not through anything Panoro has done. It's simply that Aziman have been busy, I think, trying to commit to well and the drilling rig and all those things. And that what's happened with the takeovers, [ ecos ], it's kind of -- it's now coming -- it's actually getting some real traction. And I think that we will guide for a Q4 well in 2022. It's possible to be Q3. But at the moment, I would say we'd probably guide for Q4.
Question from [ Odden Navastat ]. Could you please provide some further commentary around your hedging strategy and particularly in respect of the lifting schedule you envisage?
Yes, I touched on it a little bit in the comments to the slides. And we do have a hedging strategy, which is to really -- unless we're required by loans in Tunisia, we're required by our loans to look 1 or 2 years in advance, which is why we still have a couple of hedges for 2022 that are at lower prices, 600 barrels a day. But for the rest, we're unhedged.What we did last year is probably a good example. In the summertime, we saw that we had a lifting in Equatorial Guinea, a big lifting. And we wanted to hedge out some of that price. So we know we're looking at about 5 months. What we want to do is take out some of the drama around the prices in and around the lifting because, normally, you're getting paid based on the prevailing prices around the lifting.So that's what we're going to do. We're going to target visibility on liftings, and then we try and build in some price protection around that. We don't hedge everything out, but we will try and establish a foundation to the price. That can work against us. It can work for us in that last example I gave you, work a little bit against us, prevailing oil prices were around $75 when we lifted. Some of our hedges were at $70. So we lost with comments around them. We lost $5 a barrel on that. But having said that, $70 looked pretty darn good last summer. Now that's not looking so great.But at the moment, we don't have those hedges in place, but we're in active dialogue to probably try to lock in the second half. Hedging through the use of costless colors, maybe some swaps. We don't want to spend money on the hedges, but in order to protect some downside risk on any volatility in the oil price. Again, we're in backwardation a little bit. So again, you can't hedge at $97 a barrel for the second half of this year, but the prices are strongly in the mid-80s, which is more than good enough.
Thank you. And a couple of questions on Tunisia. Could you possibly comment if there is scope to accelerate production development activities there as is being contemplated elsewhere in the portfolio.
Maybe I'll take a breather and ask Nigel. Maybe my colleague Nigel, Projects Director, Nigel McKim, to take a couple of comments on Tunisia.
Sure, John. Yes. John touched on the work in progress in Tunisia, and it's very much a focus of present on understanding the opportunities in our fields there. So we have a joint ETAP Panoro team working through the subsurface models on several fields, trying to get a proper understanding of what's driving the performance and where the additional opportunities lie. That work will progress through this year, and we are hoping will lead to a development drilling campaign next year. So that's very much in our sights at the moment. It has come about as we've gained a learning of the understanding of the field performance and the work that needs to be done to deliver up on those further opportunities. So that is all coming. There's a team, very busy. Dan and [ Sax ], at present, working through those opportunities and preparing to make recommendations to management at ETAP and Panoro.
Right. Andy, how are we doing on questions?
That concludes the Q&A, John.
Okay. Great. Well, listen, if anybody does have any other questions, you can reach out to us at info@panoroenergy.com with other channels. I hope that this presentation has kind of laid out all the breadcrumbs, so to speak. We're trying to be as transparent about our business as possible. And hopefully, that's come through in this presentation. I thank you all for listening, and I hope that you continue to watch the developments during the course of this year. And we will be back doing this again for our first quarter results in May. Thank you very much.