Okea ASA

OSE:OKEA

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q4

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Results Presentation for 2021 for OKEA. My name is Svein Liknes, and with me today, I have also Birte Norheim, who is our CFO, who will present the financial results in more detail after my operational update.There will also be a Q&A after the presentation, and you can also post questions as we are presenting here currently.So, what can we say about the fourth quarter 2021. It's been a fantastic quarter for OKEA. We've had record financial results, and also a very strong operational performance on both our operated assets and also on our non-operated asset.That combination, with very good and high commodity prices, and also reliable and high production, obviously, pays off. And I think the fourth quarter of 2021 has been an exceptional example of when actually that happens.We had a production of about 16,038 barrels of oil per day, which is very much in line with what we had the quarter before. Very high production reliability. And we also started production from the Yme asset at the end of October. We also executed the transaction on the Inspirer rig for the asset, which also will benefit us financially.I will leave for Birte to go through the financial metrics, which is very strong, obviously. And I will go down to the point where we are very well positioned for value-accretive growth and also exercising and executing on our updated strategy, where we are looking for value accretive growth.We have increased our reserves by 16%. That was also after the produced volumes that we had last year. We are increasing our 2022 production guiding from what we presented last time. And we are now between 18,500 to 20,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day for 2022.We are also increasing our stake in Ivar Aasen, as a result of the previously announced transaction from Neptune Energy Norge. We are growing our portfolio with more licenses in our portfolio, through the e-licensing run we just had, where we just added 4 licenses of 3 as an operator.We are spudding the Hamlet exploration well in the Gjoa area, together with the operator and the other partners in that license, and we are progressing on our projects throughout the quarter. So very strong performance throughout the quarter, also then backed by very high prices.And on the subject of commodity prices, this current shows -- the quarter we have gone through. The exceptional gas prices we saw at the end of the fourth quarter, obviously, has a huge impact on OKEA as we are exposed by 34% in our volumes, gas. We can see that the oil -- the gas price has now dropped off again, but we do still remind that this is exceptionally high levels that we are now also moving into 2022 with.In the background of the gas price increase, the oil price has also gradually increased, as the pandemic seems to go into its final stages. And obviously, we are benefiting a lot from that price as well. So in addition to talking about the gas price, the oil price is definitely also supporting our results.But higher production reliability is, obviously, a prerequisite to deliver good results as an oil and gas company, and I'm very glad to say that we had a near 100% production reliability and 99% production reliability on our own operated Draugen asset.Obviously, that combination with the high prices, gives us fantastic results. And the average production last year was 15,530 barrels of oil equivalents, which is within the guiding we gave to the market last year.And how we do this is also important? On safety and emissions, we have had no further serious incidents during the quarter. The incident -- or the potential incident that shows here, is the same that we also mentioned in the previous quarterly presentation. It was to lose handrail on Draugen.We have a drop-off in recordable incident frequency, and again, managing our barriers is extremely important for us. And we're glad to say that we've had 0 hydrocarbon leaks also in the last quarter, and also for the last 2.5 years actually.As can be seen here, we do have a gradual increase of CO2 machines, is something we are addressing through the power from shore project that we will sanction or aim to sanction during fourth quarter of 2022, which will significantly reduce our CO2 emissions.In addition, higher production from the Yme asset will also reduce our CO2 intensity per barrel of oil obviously. But the main contributor for OKEA is to push forward the power from shore project on Draugen, which will take down the CO2 emissions by 95%, which equals 200,000 tons per term of CO2 per year. So there's a significant contribution.So as we are on Draugen, the production from Draugen was 7,231 barrels of oil per day, which is an increase compared to the previous quarter. Very high reliability and all well workovers and well-related maintenance was done in the third quarter. So we had very stable production on Draugen in Q4.We are progressing on the Hasselmus project, which will give gas to Draugen, which will have first gas in the fourth quarter of 2023 of 4,400 barrels of oil equivalents per day in gas to Draugen. And as I just mentioned as well, we are also progressing on the power from shore project for Draugen, which we are doing together with the Njord asset, which is operated by Equinor, but OKEA is managing that project on behalf of both operators.Going to Gjoa, we only have a working interest of 12% on Gjoa and it's a non-operated asset, but it's a very good asset for OKEA to be present in. Production on year was 8,367 barrels of oil per day, but also Gjoa is the asset that gives us most gas exposure, which obviously has been a very good exposure to have over the last quarter. So our assets in Gjoa is very important for the performance of OKEA.In addition, there is exploration in the Gjoa area and the Hamlet well will be spudded by the partnership later on in February, which could potentially be a good contributor to Gjoa for future production over that reliable asset.Ivar Aasen, we did announce last year that we have bought the Neptune Norge share of Ivar Aasen, which will increase our ownership from 0.5% to 2.77% at Ivar Aasen, which will obviously also have an impact on the production numbers from Ivar Aasen to OKEA next year, as they will have an effective date of January 1. We expect that transaction to be sanctioned and approved by the authorities by the first half of this year.So moving on to the Yme asset. Yme started production in October -- late October last year. During the cleanup of the wells emissions -- emulsions from the storage tank was discovered. So the operator and the partnership had to reshuffle the startup sequence of the wells to avoid oil and water to actually get into the sea.We think the operator did a very prudent and good job by reorganizing the startup sequence of Yme, and the emulsions issues of the storage tank is now solved -- or was solved basically back in December.Since then, more than half of the wells on Yme has been cleaned up directly to tanker, and the last remaining wells on Yme is currently being cleaned up and will be executed during the mid of February, which will then mean that the full well stock of Yme will be available and the planned commission for further ramp up.We have also just passed 30 days of consecutive production on Yme. So Yme is up and running and will continue the ramp up and will be a significant contributor for OKEA in 2022.Our growth strategy also means that we would like to do organic growth. So we are also glad to announce that we were awarded 4 licenses in the last licensing round, which again strengthens our focus on growing around the assets where we are present, as this is around the Draugen and the Gjoa assets.So our growth strategy is not just inorganic. It's also very important with organic growth, and then in particular, growing around the assets that we already operate.As I said in the introduction, we have added net reserves of 16% from 2020 to 2021, and that is after the volumes we actually have produced throughout the year. So that is a very good development of our reserves number, which is our upgrade of Gjoa and Draugen, and in particular, also the final investment decision that was taken on Hasselmus last year, that is driving this increase in reserves for us.So, quickly on the kind of outlook for first half of 2022 before I hand over to Birte is, we will now start working in the new licenses we have been awarded, together with the partnerships. Ramp-up of production on the Yme field is continuing, and we have spudding the Hamlet well in Gjoa and are looking forward to see if there can be more volumes produced over a year [ later ].We are closing the Ivar Aasen transaction during the first half of this year, which obviously will have a positive contribution on our production numbers from Ivar Aasen in 2022.And last but not least, progressing on the Hasselmus towards first gas in Q4 2023, and also executing and having a final investment decision on the power from shore to Draugen is a very important project for us.So it's going to be a hectic first half year of 2022 as well in addition, as we are aiming to operationalize our growth strategy as a company.So with that, I will hand over to Birte, and will then take you through the financial results for the quarter, and then I will come back thereafter with a quick summary before we move into questions and answers session. Thank you.

[Birte Norheim, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you, Svein. It's difficult not to get excited about the financials for this fourth quarter. The top line represents our best ever, both on the quarter and also for the year. So I'm very pleased to take you through the development in volumes and prices over the last 5 quarters.Full fourth quarter, produced volumes amounted to 16,038 barrels per day equivalent. This is slightly down compared to last quarter, as Svein mentioned, because we've had some high shutting of wells relating to Duva tie-in at Gjoa. Although, very strong performing Draugen in fourth quarter, and have partly offset this effect.And as for Yme, started production in October, and as ramp-up is still ongoing, it's quite a limited contribution from Yme in the fourth quarter.Sold volumes of 18,102 barrels of oil equivalent per day was 1,123 barrels higher than last quarter, mainly due to allocation of accrued listing on Ivar Aasen in December. However, we also had an overlift equivalent to 1,645 barrels per day as well as compensation volumes from Duva equivalent to 419 barrels per day, which additionally drives the sold volumes up in the fourth quarter.The market prices for petroleum products have continued its steady increase since the low point in second quarter last year. And in particular, we've seen gas prices soaring to even new record high levels in the fourth quarter.The average realized price for natural gas in the fourth quarter was equivalent to $188.5 per barrel on an oil equivalent basis, which is nearly a doubling compared to last quarter, and nearly 6x higher than last year.The realized price of liquids of $78 per barrel was $10.6 per barrel higher than last quarter, and have doubled compared to last year with an increase of $39 per barrel. The increase in market prices, combined with the increase in sold volumes, drives the petroleum revenue to NOK 1.633 billion, an increase of more than NOK 616 million compared to previous quarter, and an increase more than NOK 1 billion or 181% compared to last year.And as mentioned, liquids prices have steadily increased over the last 6 quarters. And the graph to the left illustrates the OKEA allocated liftings of liquids over the last 8 quarters.In Q4, OKEA had 3 partial cargoes with crude lifted, including the first lifting of oil from Yme in December. It's quite a limited lifting of 13,000 barrels allocated to OKEA. But in addition, we had 632,000 barrels from Draugen and 220,000 barrels from Ivar Aasen in the fourth quarter.We also illustrated planned cargoes and allocations to OKEA for the first quarter of 2022. The liftings which have already been completed in the first quarter includes 155,000 barrels from Gjoa, 22,000 barrels from Yme, and 593,000 barrels from Draugen. There are no further liftings from Draugen, Ivar Aasen and Gjoa planned for the first quarter. And due to Yme still being in the ramp-up phase, we do not provide any further guidance for the Q1 volumes from -- expected from Yme.The graph to the right illustrates the difference between the average price of Brent for the quarter, which was $79.7 per barrel compared to the average realized liquids price for OKEA of $78 per barrel. The key difference in the fourth quarter relates to an adverse impact on the Ivar Aasen lifting of $1.5 per barrel, because the pricing is partly based on the 5-day average crude price, following the date of [ below ] loading, and partly related to produced quantities, which basically means historic prices.The NGL and quality effects are partly offset by the positive timing effect this quarter. And as mentioned, European gas prices continued to increase during last quarter. And at the highest, it was trading 5x above crude on an oil equivalent basis. On the 21st of December, the closing price for gas ended at $365 per barrel, which was an all-time high price for gas.As Svein mentioned, the price hike appears to be driven by both the strong demand, low storage levels as well as uncertainties with regards to supply. Prices have since come down somewhat, but gas continues to trade at high levels, with an average price equivalent to $166 per barrel in January, and forward curves hovering around $200 per ton for the remainder of the year, which is about double the price of oil at the moment.The graph illustrates the average gas volume sold per month since January last year, and the monthly average market prices in the same period. On average, and also for this fourth quarter, about 1/3 of OKEA's production is gas. But for the fourth quarter, gas contributes to more than 50% of the revenue. And in comparison, gas contributed to less than 20% of the revenues in 2020. So of course, this has quite a significant impact on our financial results.If we look at the income statement, the fourth quarter of 2021 was the strongest financial quarter so far in OKEA's history, with total operating income in excess of NOK 1.7 billion, EBITDA just shy of NOK 1.3 billion, and a net profit of NOK 283 million.The EBITDA was NOK 461 million or 58% higher than last quarter, which also was a record high, and more than NOK 1 billion or 5x higher than fourth quarter of 2020. The full year profit for 2021 amounted to NOK 603 million.But if we start on the top here with the operating income of NOK 1.725 billion, mainly consisting of the petroleum revenue, as just outlined, of NOK 1.633 billion as well as tariff income from Gjoa of NOK 24 million, income from joint utilization of logistical resources of NOK 13 million, and a net gain on hedging positions of NOK 54 million.The production expense of NOK 291 million is equivalent to NOK 171 per barrel, which compares to NOK 108 per barrel in the previous quarter. The increase in cost per barrel was mainly driven by Q4 being the first quarter where we recognized operational expense from Yme following the startup in October. And in combination with low produced volumes in the startup phase, this is a key driver for the high cost per barrel in the fourth quarter.In addition, production expense at Draugen increased partly due to higher costs for imported fuel gas and CO2 quotas, but also a planned maintenance, which drives the cost at Draugen in the quarter.And also, as we have communicated before, and following the transfer of ownership from the Inspirer rig, IFRS requires that the deferred tax effect of uplift is excluded from the impairment assessment. And all else equal, we expected an impairment on Yme.As the transfer was executed in October, we have now recognized an impairment of NOK 367 million on the EMA asset, which is partly offset by a tax income of NOK 286 million. Exploration and operating expense of NOK 135 million consists of NOK 89 million in exploration expense, mainly relating to seismic purchases as well as NOK 18 million in expensing of previously capitalized costs on Ginny, which had incurred by the end -- before the end of the year.SG&A cost amounted to NOK 46 million and mainly relates to the annual recalculation of cost, which is distributable to licenses, and also driven by the employee incentive program and various corporate activities.The net financial items amounted to NOK 61 million and mainly consists of NOK 50 million in expense interest, and a net foreign exchange loss of NOK 5 million.Tax expense amounted to NOK 370 million, which represents an effective tax rate of 57%. The deviation from the expected 78% is mainly due to positive effects on uplift, particularly relating to the Inspirer rig. And in addition, we have a positive tax effect of NOK 40 million from the sale and leaseback transaction of the regional headquarter in Kristiansund. This brings the net profit for the quarter to NOK 283 million, which is a record high for OKEA.The cash balance continues to improve. And in the fourth quarter, we ended at just above NOK 2 billion in cash. And in addition, we have placed NOK 210 million invested in low-risk placement as an alternative to bank deposits.Trade and other receivables amounted to NOK 1.053 billion, which is an increase compared to previous quarter, mainly due to the increase in revenues. Tax payable amounted to NOK 773 million, which mainly relates to tax for 2021, which is payable in 2022. Interest-bearing loans bonds amounted to NOK 2.295 billion. The reduction from previous quarter was mainly due to the buyback of OKEA02 bonds equivalent to NOK 109 million.We've also added a new line item named other interest-bearing liabilities amounting to NOK 493 million, which represents the net present value of our future obligations under the Inspirer bareboat charter.Total asset retirement obligations of NOK 4.2 billion is partly offset by the asset retirement reimbursement rate of NOK 3.1 billion, as Shell will bear the ultimate removal costs for Gjoa and Draugen.We added a solid NOK 744 million in cash during the quarter in addition to buying back bonds of NOK 109 million. The total liquidity balance ended just in excess of NOK 2.2 billion, of which NOK 210 million had been placed as low-risk liquid investments.Cash flows from operations amounted to NOK 957 million, and taxes received of NOK 46 million, related to 2 installments for 2021 tanks as it was calculated back in May, each of the installments amounting to NOK 18 million, and also a NOK 9 million receivable for tax from 2020.Cash used in investment activities amounted to NOK 207 million, most of which relates to investment in projects like Hasselmus, Yme and also some modification work at Draugen.Gross proceeds on the sale leaseback from the regional headquarters in Kristiansund amounted to NOK 109 million, and cash paid in relation to the buyback of OKEA02 amounted to NOK 109 million. Interest paid of NOK 70 million relates to the quarterly interest payable on OKEA02 of NOK 22 million and the semi-annual payment of OKEA03 interest of NOK 47 million.For the full year of 2021, OKEA generated nearly NOK 1.4 billion in cash. And in addition, we bought back bonds for NOK 217 million. The significant amount of cash generated was mainly due to high margins in the strong market, combined with solid operational performance throughout the year.In addition, we received net taxes of NOK 355 million. This was partly offset by cash spending mainly on investments of NOK million, most of this is CapEx, but we also had 3 wells drilled last year. We bought back bonds for NOK 217 million, and we paid interest on our bonds for NOK 184 million.Guiding for production, in tie-in compensation volumes and CapEx for 2021, all ended within the guiding range. Production guiding for 2022 is set to a range of 18,500 to 20,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which is an increase compared to the previous outlook, and includes also the transaction related to Ivar Aasen, as Svein mentioned.But in particular, it is the continued solid performance from Gjoa and Draugen, which contributes to us ramping up the target for the year. And in addition to our own produced volumes, we expect between 900 and 1,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day, as in tie-in compensation volumes from Duva and Nova, which will additionally drive our revenues and cash flow.The production outlook for 2023 is set to 17,000 to 19,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, and also in 2023, we expect some in-time volumes from Duva, and Nova ranging between 600 and 800 barrels of oil equivalent per day.CapEx guiding for 2022 is set to a range between NOK 950 million and NOK 1,150 million. And our CapEx guiding does not account for capitalized interest, but it mainly relates to planned investments on the Hasselmus project, and also on completion of Yme, including the drilling program, which is planned for the year.So on that note, I'll give the word back to Svein for some closing remarks. Thank you.

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

Thanks for that, Birte. So to sum it up then, what a fantastic quarter it has been, but also the full year of 2021. So -- and we're going to use that position that we are in now, to execute on our growth ambition as a company.We are growing production already and reserves in a very strong oil and gas market, and we are putting more barrels out there. So the timing of that is good.But we also want to grow further. We have an updated strategy now where we want to grow, but it needs to be value accretive growth and not growing just for the sake of growth. And also, we have to ensure that we exercise capital discipline as we are growing the company.So we think that we are both operational and also financially well positioned to actually take a more leading role on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. And as we said in our strategy update last year as well, we would like to become, and also think we are, the leading mid-to-late life champion on the Norwegian Continental Shelf, where we see a lot of value creation for the years to come.So with that, I think I will stop, and I think we are then moving straight over to the Q&A session, and we will be happy to answer your questions as they come. Thank you.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] And our first question is from Teodor Nilsen from Sp1 Markets.

[Teodor Sveen-Nilsen]

Congrats on very strong 2021 results. I have 4 quick questions. First on the CapEx. Is it possible to provide us split per field on the 2022 CapEx guidance?Second question is on cost inflation. Do you see any trends of increased cost for your suppliers?Third question is on OpEx. Birte, you said that OpEx in the fourth quarter increased, based on -- and you also gave a few reasons for that. It looks like underlying OpEx was slightly up. Should we expect that level also into 2022?And then last question is on gas. Are you tempted to sell some gas, quarter with the strong gas prices we see now? Or will you continue to sell it at spot price?

[Birte Norheim, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes, Teodor. Let's see if I remember all your questions. As for gas, as we have also written in the report, we have sold forward between 20% and 30% over the next 3 quarters in the area of 200 tons per term. The detail of that is available in the financial statement.As for the cost, no, I don't expect to see this level going forward. Yme, as mentioned, has quite significant -- or the first quarter of cost and quite a low volume. So it drives the average cost per barrel up. And also for Draugen, in particular, where we had both modification work, but we will have some effect there of the import gas, where we benefit on the revenue side. We will have somewhat higher cost on Draugen for the import of gas, which we do there.And you also asked for a breakdown on CapEx. We won't provide a detailed breakdown, but I can say that about 50% of the guiding range relates to Hasselmus, and about 30% relates to the Yme field and the drilling activities for Gamma and Beta, which is planned for the year.

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

And just a quick comment from my side on the cost inflation question that you had, that we secured -- well, our CapEx and our project is mostly related to Hasselmus and also the new Yme wells. But as you may also recall, we did enter a frame agreement on drilling rig last year, which we will use. And also the Hasselmus project, our main contractor, the Aker Solution, we have a very long-term contract with.So we think, obviously, there will be pressure in the market, but not necessarily for 2022. But we also think that we have secured the required resources we need from the supplier side to actually execute on the cost level that we have forecasted.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] As we have no further questions from the telephone line, I'll hand the word back to the speakers.

[Unknown Executive]

Okay. There are several questions here on the web. First from Daniel Stenslet in Arctic Securities.How is the Yme ramp-up developing? When do you expect to reach plateau? Second, can you provide the breakdown of the 2022 CapEx budget? What are the main contributions? And the third, are you able to specify when you expect to launch/commit to a shareholder distribution framework?

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes. And, I guess, I can try a stab on the first 2 ones. The Yme ramp up, as I mentioned in the presentation as well, we started our production of Yme late October last year. There were some emulsion issues in the storage tank that we discovered in November. Therefore, we had to reshuffle on the startup sequence. We have now cleaned up wells directly to shuttle tankers during December and also in January. So -- and the remaining 3 wells is now being cleaned up during February, so that ramp-up is actually happening as we speak. So by the end of February, we should have all well stock producing, although we have produced for 30 consecutive days and even more, but then with a limited number of wells online each time due to the cleanup sequence. So, in February, we should see how the overall production is from Yme, when all wells are online.On the CapEx budget, the main contributions there are the Hasselmus project, which we are executing on, in addition to the additional wells to be drilled on the Yme project. In addition to the existing wells that is now being cleaned up, there are also 6 additional wells to be drilled on Yme, which also will be put online for the future and this year. So that is the main contributions there.And on the next one, Birte on the capital allocation, but also the shareholder distribution, if you can talk about that?

[Birte Norheim, Chief Financial Officer]

Yes. I see there's quite a few questions on distribution and dividend actually, so I'll try to cover them all in my response here. But in October, we did announce a dividend plan. We did announce an intention to announce a dividend plan during 2022. And we're now in early February.What we have achieved is 30 days consecutive production from Yme. So the only thing that's remaining before we can actually distribute is a General Meeting resolution. And as you may have seen on our financial plan, we had scheduled an AGM for the end of April. So there will be coming more information on dividend in due time.I see a related question here is, whether we do see tangible M&A opportunities? And I can confirm that we do see tangible M&A opportunities. Actually, the activity level is higher than what we have seen in some time in the M&A part of the market, and of course, we will be balancing the growth ambitions to our dividend plan. But further details on the dividend plan will come later, not at this stage.

[Unknown Executive]

Then there is a further question from Tom Erik Kristiansen, from Pareto Securities.Are the potential for further organic reserves growth in 2022? If so, which activities should contribute positively? Will today's oil and gas prices trigger further Infill drilling?

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

The answer there is yes. As also mentioned in the presentation, we are together with the operator on Gjoa, we are spudding the Hamlet well later on in February, which we hope will have a positive contribution to the Gjoa. In addition, we have the infield -- or increased oil recovery program on Draugen, which we are also executing on, where we are planning to execute or at least sanction a few Infill targets on Draugen. If we are drilling that into a target in '22 or '23, we are still discussing. Obviously, that is something we need to coordinate with existing production as well. So, we do see organic growth opportunities. And also more long-term, as you could see, we did get 4 licenses, 3 as an operator, in the license round recently. So organic growth around our assets, both the operated and non-operated, is one of the core pillars in our growth strategy as well.

[Unknown Executive]

And there is a further question from Karl Fredrik Schjott-Pedersen of ABG Sundal Collier. What is the optimal capital structure for OKEA?

[Birte Norheim, Chief Financial Officer]

Well that, of course, depends. We are now in a growth phase, so -- where we have, I would say, a big growth plan. So the capital structure to be ideal for OKEA will depend on our success rate in our M&A. And I might refer to the buybacks that we have done on our bonds. So ideally, we'll move into lower cost of capital structure going forward. But the optimal capital structure will largely depend on our success in M&A.

[Unknown Executive]

Okay. As Birte said, there are a couple of further questions of dividends and whether there will be quarterly dividends. And I think Birte has covered that well already. So maybe with that, do you want any just short summary?

[Svein Jacob Liknes, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes, just a summary from our end. It's been a very strong quarter and the whole year of 2021 has been kind of a transformative year for OKEA as well, which has put us in a very robust position both financially but also operationally.We also announced the growth ambition last year, and the updated strategy to actually grow. We believe in a strong market going forward. And obviously, the growth strategy is very much linked into the dividend questions as well, which is coming here. So dividend capacity is also one of the important metrics we are measuring when we are looking for growth. And also, we would like to be recognized as a company which gives back to the shareholders.But again, I believe, OKEA is at a pivotal point when we actually have the opportunity to grow the company for the future, and also have a much more robust position for the company, including dividend capacity. So it's been a very good year, and we will continue to grow and to deliver on the ambitions we actually have.

[Unknown Executive]

Okay. With that, we say thank you from OKEA and look forward to sharing more in our Q1 presentation.

[Birte Norheim, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you.