Okea ASA

OSE:OKEA

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q2

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to the Presentation of the Second Quarter Results for OKEA in 2023. My name is Svein Liknes, I'm the CEO of OKEA. And as always, I have the CFO, Birte Norheim, with me today that will take you through the financial section a bit later before we go to summary and questions and answers. We do have a link on our homepage that you can use for the Q&A session thereafter. And we hope that you will join us for that session.

The second quarter in 2023 has been a very stable quarter for OKEA. Our production has been just in excess of 22,000 barrels per day or 22,300. It's been predictable as we already had planned for, and we have done some activities on our assets, which has been quite significant. But production has been very stable, strong production, both from Brage, Ivar Aasen and Gjøa. Draugen has had the biggest turnaround or maintenance shutdown during this quarter with 20,000 man-hours, which was executed in accordance with plan and budget. And we have also seen Yme and Nova performance improving. We do have further mitigating actions at Nova we just planned for Q3 and also into 2024, but I will get into that when I go through each asset thereafter. So steady operations as planned during the quarter.

In our portfolio, we have drilled a well called the Talisker East well on Brage, which has really boosted production on Brage by 60% compared to the previous quarter. And again, I will get back to that later on with more details.

For our projects, we are continuing to mature the Hasselmus project, planning to start it as planned in Q4 this year with 4,400 additional barrels of pure gas coming into the Draugen platform.

On the finance side, very strong cash flow during the quarter of NOK 805 million. We have taken impairment on Yme of NOK 300 million due to negative development on the expected realized prices for the future, but the production and operations on Yme has been improving continuously during the quarter. And we have paid dividends during the last quarter, and we have also now decided to pay dividends for the next quarter as previously communicated in our plan.

The main figures for the quarter is, as you can see it here, I'm glad to say that we've had no serious incidents during the quarter. So that number is gradually decreasing. We have very much the same CO2 emissions as last year. This is an annual average, so it's 23 this year. It was 22 last year. For production, we've had in excess of 22,000, 22,300 barrels of oil, which is very much the same as we had in Q1. The production profile this year for OKEA is that it's very stable on this level for the first half, and then it will gradually increase in the second half, maintaining the guiding that we have previously communicated. We are seeing a drop in production expenses in our portfolio down to NOK 223, which is a reduction compared to the previous quarter. Strong cash flow, as I mentioned, of NOK 1.401 billion, and we have paid NOK 104 million in dividends as was originally planned and communicated.

Reliability and our assets. The production during the quarter, as you can see on this graph here, the most significant thing here is the reduction you can see in the Draugen -- from the Draugen asset. That is caused by the planned turnaround that we had on Draugen to do maintenance work but also to do critical Hasselmus start-up work that was executed in May as within the plan and schedule that we had. So that's the most notable difference here. Another difference from the previous quarter is the increase that you can see on the Brage asset, which has increased to 3,500 in average for this quarter, and it's continuing to increase. And last week, we actually had 5,000 on the production from Brage. So that is delivering in accordance with the ambitions we had actually for Brage.

Some natural decline on Gjøa and steady operations on Ivar Aasen and as you can see as well, increase in production from Yme. As you can see here as well, the Yme reliability is what I will speak about in the lower figure here. You can see Gjøa and Yme will be, as we are now drilling more wells and putting them on stream and then actually putting that into a facility that manages to maintain 90% reliability. So that is good for the future.

Quickly through our assets. The Draugen asset, main thing there is that the Hasselmus tieback project is progressing in accordance with plan. So we're going to start it up in Q4 this year, as I just mentioned, 4,400 barrels of oil equivalent of gas, which then will convert the Draugen from being a gas importer to actually becoming a gas exporter again. We completed the turnaround in May, which was the biggest turnaround for Draugen for many, many years. And we are currently drilling 2 observation wells on Draugen to see if there's more resource potential in the reservoirs around Draugen. So that is ongoing with the Transocean rig as we speak.

On the Brage asset, we did start production of the Talisker East, which is a well that we drilled in May, boosting production at Brage by 60% compared to the previous quarter. So that has really delivered in accordance with our expectations. So that is what we're trying to do. We're trying to identify resources, drill it and then put it on stream. So very good performance of Brage over the last quarter and also production reliability has been extremely good compared to what it was in the first quarter.

We are putting additional 3 wells on stream during this year. So we are expecting a plateau of around 6,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. And as I just mentioned, we passed 5,000 last week, so we are on track to actually deliver on the ambitions and plans on Brage.

On the Brasse development, that is still being managed and developed in the license. So we are still aiming to work that and mature that towards the DG2 together with the license partners and see if that is a concept that we can actually develop towards Brage for the future.

The Gjøa asset, again, very good performance on Gjøa, slightly lower production in the quarter due to natural decline but we are looking for more resources together with the other license partners in the Gjøa to see if we can mature that in. And one of those discoveries is the Hamlet discovery that we have announced previously and see how we can actually do an area development and tie that back to Gjøa to feed the hopper for Gjøa to continue the good operation they've already had.

When it comes to Ivar Aasen, eventless basically quarter, very good production, a very reliable asset for us. And we are maturing the IOR, or increased oil recovery, program for 2024 in the license towards a concept select.

The Yme production availability is improving. As I just showed in the previous slide, the reliability of the asset is now in excess of 90%, which is very good and they are continuing to improve that. We have produced -- where we have drilled one producer that will be put on production now in July most likely or early in August, which will again add production volumes to Yme, and we are continuing to drill two more producers, one sidetrack and one new well and one injector during the second half of 2023 to get more well stock into Yme to get up to the plateau during the second half.

On Nova, there has been drilling operations for sidetrack on the water injection. There has been activities during this quarter to increase production with the existing pressure support that we have that is basically just pressure management, so we can increase production. But the real boost and the increase of production from Nova will come as we are starting to inject water in the new sidetrack that has been drilled, and there's also a fourth water injector being planned for 2024 that will add more pressure support to Nova to increase production even more for next year.

The last thing I would like to go through before I hand over to Birte and the finance section is we are progressing towards closing of the Statfjord transaction in the Q4 2023. This will really boost production of OKEA and we are already integrated into the asset as observer. But we have noticed that we are fully integrated. We are valued as a partner already, and we are part of the processes and decisions to actually maneuver Statfjord going forward and future value creation. Still 41 million barrels of oil in 2P and 8 million in 2C resources. And as we mentioned when we announced the transaction, we have also identified 14 million-plus barrels of oil equivalent, further upside that we think can be exploited from the Statfjord area for the future.

There has been a reduction in production efficiency during the first half of this year, mainly due to a prolonged turnaround on Statfjord Charlie, which was 2 weeks longer, and there was also operational upsets on Statfjord Alpha. So no reduction in guidance from the Statfjord transaction for next year or 2024, and there is no changes in the volume estimates that we have presented previously as well. So what has happened now is that there's been some production upsets or operational upsets that has decreased production by 2,000 barrels on average for this year. And the operator has implemented activities and also procedures to increase production efficiency for the second half to claim back some of those losses. So there is no long-term effect of what we are seeing in those reduced numbers.

So with that, I will hand over to Birte for the finance section, and then I'll come back with a summary before we head into Q&A. So over to you, Birte.

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Thank you, Svein. The second quarter was characterized by steady production. Volumes from the new Talisker well at Brage and improved performance from Yme and Nova offset the delayed volumes from Draugen following the maintenance turnaround executed this quarter. Second quarter was also characterized by strong cash generation, and our cash position at the end of the quarter is in solid excess to our remaining outstanding bond debt. Prices for both liquids and gas have reduced during the quarter. But as also in the previous quarter, the lower market prices was partly offset by realized gains on physical gas hedging, which drives up the realized gas price for OKEA. However, the reduction in expected realized future prices resulted in an impairment on Yme, which is held at fair value in the balance sheet.

But let's dig into the details, starting with our production and sales. We produced 22,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day in the quarter, which is more or less the same level as previous quarter. In May, production commenced from the Talisker East well, which increased production from Brage by 60% compared to previous quarter. Production at Nova and Yme continued to improve. And jointly, these effects contributed to a production at the same level as previous quarter despite the planned turnaround at Draugen. We sold 22,800 barrels of oil equivalents per day in the quarter, and the reduction compared to the previous quarter was due to a recovery of the significant underlift position in the previous quarter, which was not repeated in the current quarter.

Net compensation volumes from Duva and Nova amounted to 332 barrels of oil equivalents per day. Gas prices came down somewhat during the quarter and the average realized price for natural gas amounted to $81.2 per barrel of oil equivalent. The realized price was higher than the observable market price for NBP, as it includes the gains from fixed price contracts equivalent of $23.3 per barrel. As a result of physical contracts, these hedging gains are recognized directly in the realized prices. Oil prices fluctuated somewhat more during the quarter touching nearly $90 a barrel at the highest and just above $70 a barrel at the lowest. NGL prices came down even more during the quarter. And the average realized price for liquids, which includes NGL, amounted to $70.1 per barrel. Overall, this resulted in a total petroleum revenue of NOK 1.641 billion.

The graph to the left illustrates the OKEA allocated liftings of crude over the last 5 quarters marked by the blue bars as well as the market prices for crude marked by the yellow line. OKEA had 5 cargoes of crude lifted in the quarter. 2 cargoes for a total of 226,000 barrels were lifted from Yme, 618,000 barrels was lifted from Draugen and 132,000 from Gjøa and 313,000 barrels from Ivar Aasen. We also illustrate the planned cargoes for the third quarter marked in gray and a lifting of 485,000 barrels from Brage has already been complete now in early July. As the graph shows, we also expect 325,000 barrels from Ivar Aasen in August and 645,000 barrels from Draugen in September. In addition, we expect several liftings from Yme during the quarter. The lifting of those from Yme may deviate somewhat from this illustration and is subject to the nominated allocation between the license partners.

The graph to the right outlines the difference between the average market price of Brent for the quarter of $78 per barrel compared to the average realized liquids price for OKEA of $70.1 per barrel. The key driver for the differential relates to the NGL volumes, which accounts for a reduction equivalent to $6.3 per barrel in the quarter. And the NGL effect is more significant than the average quarter due to a larger than usual amount of NGL volumes lifted as well as a reduction in the market prices for NGL during the quarter.

On this graph, we illustrate the average volumes of gas sold per month since April last year and the observable monthly average prices for NBP in the same period. Following extremely volatile prices over the last year or so, gas prices were relatively stable, although somewhat decreasing during the quarter. The realized gains on fixed price contracts, as described earlier, drives OKEA's realized gas price by an average of $23.3 per barrel equivalent above the observable NBP prices.

But let's move on to the profit and loss statement. We delivered operating income of NOK 1.77 billion, consisting of the petroleum revenue of NOK 1.641 billion and other income of NOK 66 million. And included in the petroleum revenue is the gain on forward sale of gas, which amounted to NOK 137 million. Other income mainly comprises NOK 39 million in tariff income at Gjøa and an unrealized gain of NOK 18 million related to the estimated value of the contingent consideration to Wintershall mainly driven by reduced forward prices for crude.

Production expenses amounted to NOK 495 million or NOK 223 per barrel. We recognized an impairment of NOK 300 million relating to Yme, following adverse developments and expected realized prices. And we'd like to again remind that as the Yme asset is recognized at fair value, it means that any changes in macro conditions or asset performance will result in further impairments or reversal of impairments going forward. As such, there is potential for some volatility to the profit and loss statement relating to Yme specifically.

Exploration and operating expenses amounted to NOK 171 million and comprised SG&A expense of NOK 47 million and exploration expense of NOK 124 million. The exploration expense mainly related to seismic purchases in the quarter of NOK 80 million and further development of the Brasse discovery of NOK 21 million. SG&A cost was higher than the average run rate for the quarter, mainly due to adviser fees in relation to business development activities.

Net financial expense amounted to NOK 115 million and mainly relates to a net currency loss of NOK 110 million. Net expense interest of NOK 18 million relates to interest on the OKEA03 bond and the Yme bareboat charter and is partly offset by interest income on deposits. Tax expense amounted to NOK 322 million, which brings the net profit to NOK 69 million for the quarter.

Moving on to the balance sheet. Cash and cash equivalents ended at NOK 2.335 billion. The increase from previous quarter mainly relates to solid cash generation from operations. Tax payable was NOK 1.238 billion and mainly relates to accrued tax for the first half of 2023. interest-bearing bond loans was NOK 1.293 billion at the end of the quarter and relates to the OKEA03 bond, which carries a fixed coupon of 8.75% and matures at the end of 2024. Other interest-bearing liabilities of NOK 531 million relates to OKEA's share of the future obligations under the bareboat charter of the Inspirer rig at the Yme. Asset retirement obligations ended the quarter at NOK 5.7 billion, and this liability is partly offset by the asset retirement receivables from Shell and Wintershall Dea of NOK 3.5 billion.

As a result of steady performance and high sold volumes, cash generation from operations was a solid NOK 1.7 billion. Taxes paid of SEK 333 million relates to the 2 last installments payable for 2023. Cash used in investment activities amounted to NOK 513 million and mainly relates to investments in Hasselmus, power from shore, modification work at Draugen and Brage drilling. Cash paid in business combinations consists of NOK 22 million in contingent consideration to Wintershall for the Brage, Nova and Ivar Aasen transaction as realized prices in the second half of 2022 exceeded the threshold of $80 per barrel. Interest paid of NOK 68 million relates to interest on OKEA03, which is payable semiannually and the Yme bareboat charter. In total, we generated equivalent to about SEK 8 per share in the quarter before dividend payments of NOK 104 million, which represents NOK 1 per share. Total cash balance ended in excess of NOK 2.3 billion and well above the value of the outstanding bond debt.

The steady performance and high sold volumes have resulted in cash generation from operating activities as much as NOK 3.2 billion in the first half of the year. Taxes paid of NOK 499 million relates to the 3 last installments of tax for 2022, each of which amounted to NOK 166 million. We expect a tax refund for 2022 of NOK 75 million in November. In June, we submitted the first estimate for tax payable for 2023 to the oil taxation office for a total of NOK 1.6 billion payable in 6 installments, each of NOK 276 million.

In the third quarter, we pay one such installments in August. Cash paid in business combinations of NOK 297 million relates to the deposit paid to Equinor in relation to the Statfjord transaction of NOK 263 million, and NOK 34 million paid to Wintershall in the final forward contract settlement and the contingent consideration. In total, we generate cash equivalent to about NOK 14 per share in the first half of the year. Dividend of NOK 2 per share amounts to a total dividend payment of NOK 208 million in the period.

In total, we paid a dividend of NOK 2 per share in 2020 -- NOK 2.90 per share in 2022, and we have communicated an intention to pay NOK 4 per share in 2023. NOK 2 per share was paid in the first half of the year, and the Board has now resolved to pay NOK 1 per share in September in accordance with the plan. The Board is also reaffirming its intention to distribute the same amount in the fourth quarter. And dividend planned for the year of NOK 4 per share represents a dividend yield of about 13%.

Production guiding for 2023 is unchanged in the range of 22,000 to 25,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. In the first half of the year, we were just above the low point of the range and production is expected to ramp up in the second half of the year with the new wells coming on stream. We have some maintenance planned also for the third quarter, where production from Gjøa will be impacted by up to 6 days of planned downtime and the subsea wells at Draugen will be shut in for a week for installation of the new upgraded subsea pumps. Production from Draugen will be reduced by about 50% in the shut-in period.

CapEx guiding for 2023 is also unchanged at the range of NOK 1.7 billion to NOK 2.1 billion for the year. Note that none of the guiding include the effects from Statfjord. And as Svein mentioned, we expect production from Statfjord for the year to be in the range of 11,000 to 13,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day net to OKEA.

As for other relevant updates, the OKEA03 bonds, as you know, is maturing at the end of next year. Backed by the increase in production and reserves from the recent transactions, we have now started a process to evaluate options to refinance the OKEA03 bond and optimize our debt capital structure. As part of this process, we are assessing various options, including a potential bank facility and possibly in combination with the bond issue. We will revert to you with more information on this as we progress this work.

But as for now, that's all for me, and I'll give the word back to you, Svein, for some closing remarks. Thank you.

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Thank you, Birte. Then we'll take a quick summary before we go to the Q&A session. And as I mentioned, there will be a link on our homepage and also a telephone number that you can call for asking those questions just after the summary. So to sum up then, OKEA is continuing to deliver on our growth strategy. We are closing the Statfjord deal in Q4 2023. We have increased production on Talisker East.

We have really boosted the production in Brage and we have continued targets that we are trying to get to with the drill bit on Brage do more of what we have already done in Brage. We have demonstrated strong operational performance on both Brage, Draugen, Ivar Aasen and Thank you, Birte. Then we'll take a quick summary before we go to the Q&A session. And as I mentioned, there will be a link on our homepage and also a telephone number that you can call for asking those questions just after the summary.

So to sum up then, OKEA is continuing to deliver on our growth strategy. We are closing the Statfjord deal in Q4 2023. We have increased production on Talisker East. We have really boosted the production in Brage and we have continued targets that we are trying to get to with the drill bit on Brage do more of what we have already done in Brage. We have demonstrated strong operational performance on both Brage, Draugen, Ivar Aasen and Gjøa.

We have increased on Yme and Nova, and we have executed a very big turnaround of more than 20,000 man-hours on Draugen, which enables both Draugen and the other assets to deliver for the future. And also during that turnaround, preparations for the Hasselmus start-up in the Q4 was executed successfully. And we have demonstrated and showed that we have a strong cash generation in the company, and we are delivering on the dividend plan that we have announced previously.

So with that, I will thank you for watching us in this presentation during the summer season. And I hope that you will join us for the Q&A session, hereafter, where we will then answer any questions you may have. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] The first question will be from the line of Daniel Stenslet from Arctic Securities.

[Daniel Stenslet, analyst]

Congrats for another strong report. So 4 questions from me. Number one is the current over and lift balance neutral? Or are you now in the net overlift position after the end of Q2? Second question, why do you expect lower realized prices for Yme volumes going forward? Is the hydrocarbon composition different from what you expected [indiscernible] different or what explains it? [indiscernible] has already indicated that Yme would expect oil in excess of 2,000 barrels per day by mid-'23. Since then, was production has been higher than expected? What do you now foresee as the future plateau level? And when do you expect to hit that level? And finally, how much do you expect Nova to produce before it hits plateau and when do you expect to get there?

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Okay. Thanks for your questions. That was quite a few one. And the line was a bit poor. So if we missed some of your questions, please do not hesitate to raise them again. I think I can answer some of them and maybe you can answer some of the production side. What's the question?

[Anca Jalba, executive]

Yme and Nova.

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Yes. Yme price. The Yme price been reduced and Yme is still in early phase of this part -- this production start-up. So there's no nonprice established on Yme. And we have seen premiums versus discounts varying quite a lot over this first production period. And we have now realized that the -- due to also the size of the lifting, which is lower than -- so the shipping cost is somewhat higher and the quality that we have been able to realize in the most recent quarters has driven to this reduction in the pricing expected also going forward. But we do expect a norm price to be established there within the next few quarters.

Svein, do you want to comment on Yme and Nova production?

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Yes, I can do that. On the Yme production, we expect net to OKEA in excess of 5,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. And we do expect that during the second half of this year as we are completing the C8 well now and the 2 remaining production wells and the injectors. So C8 will be put in operation now is expected at the end of July, and then the remaining will come during the end of -- or the second half of the year. When it comes to Nova, it's -- what we currently have there is for the -- well, it's both oil and it's also gas, obviously. But what we have to see there before we can make any numbers is the effect of the current sidetrack, what injector that we have in the place. And then we will drill one more next year to have even more production. So that is a number I need to get back to you on.

[Daniel Stenslet, analyst]

All right. Got it. And on the first question, I'd like to over or underlift. Would you say that you are now in an overlift position or in a neutral territory for the Q2?

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Yes, we are -- this varies between quarters. But given that we produced about 22.3 and we sold about 22.8, we are more or less even. There's not a huge amount of over or underlift at the moment.

[Daniel Stenslet, analyst]

Okay. Excellent. And finally, could you also indicate what the remaining value of Yme is now in your books?

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Well, we don't really comment on book values per asset. But I guess I can indicate that net of deferred taxes, it's less than NOK 1 billion.

[Operator]

It seems there are no further questions in this call. And I will therefore hand back to the speakers for any written questions.

[Anca Jalba, executive]

Thank you so much. This is Anca Jalba, Head of IR in OKEA. I'm going to read the 3 questions that Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from Sparebank 1 Markets has submitted. One has already been addressed by the question that Daniel has asked in the question. So the first one is how should we expect Hasselmus ramp up? The second is the Yme book value, which has already been addressed. And the third question is, how will the lower-than-expected Statfjord production impact the [ forward contract ] for the deal?

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Yes. And I can answer the first one there and maybe also the last one. So the ramp-up of Hasselmus will be quite quick. Hasselmus is a pure gas field. So when you started, then basically, there is no cleanup as such to be done. So the Hasselmus ones, we initiate production from Hasselmus they will very quickly come on stream and be on a stable production. We are still planning for that to happen in Q4 this year, as we said in the presentation as well. And as we are moving into Q3 now, we will get more into a specific date when we expect it, but we have Q4 still.

When it comes to the impact on the [ forward contract. ] Obviously, the impact on the [ forward contract ] is a bit negative, but more important is also the market conditions around us with the pricing we are seeing until we actually do the closing, and it also depends on when we actually close the deal in Q4, as we have said previously. So we still think it's not very negative, to be honest, but it will have a negative impact, but there is also other factors, which is being monitored, which will also have potentially an impact.

[Anca Jalba, executive]

No more questions submitted online. We'll hand back to the operator if there's any other callers on the line with questions.

[Operator]

Yes. No questions coming. So I'll just hand it back to you.

[Anca Jalba, executive]

Sorry. Thank you. Just got a question now from Sander Solheim Nielsen in Fernley Securities. The question is regarding Hamlet. Is the aim to submit a PDO this year? Can you also give a brief update on the potential development of Brasse?

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Yes, and I can try to answer that. When it comes to Hamlet, we are looking into area development in the north of Gjøa area on Hamlet. So I think it's unrealistic to expect the PDO to be submitted this year. It's not mature enough for that. I think the future for Hamlet is to be coupled up with more resources in the area and then find a host and then do -- coordinate the development. And on the potential development of Brasse, that has been worked in the license as we speak. We are still focusing on trying to pass DG2 at some stage. But before we get to that point, then the license is still working this, and we are working closely with the operator DNO the Brasse and our overall aim is obviously to try to get it towards DG3 and as a tie-in candidate to Brage in the future.

[Anca Jalba, executive]

Thank you so much, Svein. The next question is from [ David Mirzai. ] Given the disappointing performance to date from Yme, can you say whether this reflects mainly the operating performance or the geology?

[Svein Liknes, executive]

I think it's a mix. What we have seen so far and as we also showed in some of the slides earlier was that we've seen a rapid and big increase in production efficiency from Yme. So that indicates that there has been facility issues over the ramp-up period for the last 18 months. When it comes to the geology, I think the geology is known. Some of the impairments we did last year was more based on production performance and water content in some of the existing wells that was drilled in the earlier phase of Yme. So I will not say that it's very much geology, which has been surprising, it has been more challenging facilities that has kind of hampered the operations.

[Anca Jalba, executive]

Thank you. No more questions on the chat. I hand it back to the operator to see if there is anyone on the call.

[Operator]

We still don't have anyone in the queue. So I'll just hand it back to you.

[Svein Liknes, executive]

Okay. Thank you very much for attending the presentation today and also taking part in the Q&A session. We are taking somewhat summer holiday now. So I wish you have a nice summer as well. I'm looking forward to see and speak to you again in the third quarter. Bye-bye.

[Birte Norheim, executive]

Bye.