Nordic Mining ASA

OSE:NOM

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

Good morning, and welcome everyone to this fourth quarter 2023 interim presentation here at Nordic Mining. My name is Ivar Fossum. I'm the CEO of Nordic together with Jens Schnelle, the CFO; and the Managing Director of Engebø, Kenneth Nakken Angedal. We will give you the presentation this morning.Please be informed that this webcast will be taped and put on our website so you can look at it anytime you want and the whole presentation as long as -- along with the Q4 report as such will be annexed to the press release from this morning.So let's start. We have a common agenda also on this quarterly presentation. So after my brief introduction, Kenneth will take us through the status of the Engebø projects. I will give an update on the product markets and pricing before Jens is coming back to financials.As in previous webcasts, we will have a Q&A towards the end of the session. So during the presentation, you may post your questions and we will read them out loud and do our best to answer them after we have finalized the presentation.But before we start to describe Q4, let's have a look back at the year 2023. There was a lot of important events related to the Engebø project. We finalized closing of offtake agreements for the full production of garnet for 5 years. That was in January last year. Right after that, we secured full financing by a share issue of approximately NOK 1 billion. We continued construction, which we started the year before. We have finalized the underground infrastructure groundworks, which will house the primary crushing chamber. We have started to recruit the key management positions for the operational staff for Engebø.And we have carried out a USD 50 million drawdown from the royalty agreement with our partner, Orion Resource Partners. Last year, we also started mechanical installation, and all of the process equipment has been procured and are now under fabrication.So let's move on to a few of the highlights for the fourth quarter. And as previous quarters, we are extremely pleased to see the statistics on safety, no lost time injuries in the fourth quarter, and 656 days from start till now without any lost time injuries. We are extremely focused on this pattern and constantly trying to bring a safety culture with ourselves and with our partners. With NOK 322 million invested in the fourth quarter, we have passed the halfway mark towards start of production at Engebø. In total, NOK 1.4 billion has now been invested at Engebø.All the 4 EPCs are now on site, so it has become an even more busy place. We are progressing as planned, scheduled to start production in the fourth quarter of this year. We know that the world is becoming more impredictable. We have a strong project economy at Engebø. We are also facing increased costs, which we will learn more about later in the presentation. We are at schedule, but we see increased risks from logistical operations, possible increased freight costs due to the crisis in the Red Sea, and other events around us in the world.Last year, some NGOs summoned the Norwegian state, claiming that our permits and licenses were null and void. And on January 10, the District Court of Oslo made a ruling where the state clearly won the case against them and the ruling was a thorough one and underpinning that the state had interpreted and implemented the EU directive correctly. It also documented the extremely thorough and comprehensive assessment of the Engebø project through the last 15, 16 years. The NGOs has announced that they probably will appeal the ruling.And I'd like to make a note on this point. We recognize and respect emotions around the planned sea disposal at Engebø. Passionate principle stands against that solution. However, based on the assessment and our research and knowledge, which we have gained over the years, we remain very, very confident that this is the best solution for the Engebø project.We have just finalized an appeal case from AMR in the Supreme Court of Norway after having lost in 2 rounds with expenses. Part of their ruling, they also wanted to appeal. However, we consider our permits and licenses to remain valid and we see either no impact or insignificant impact from the Supreme Court ruling. We also like to underline that having Engebø, the project as it is with the sea disposal solution, with the open pit and underground mining, we are able to make the world's most climate-friendly titanium feedstock and by far better than any other peers in our sector. And that is even before we have started production, before we see new technology, before we can roll out even new solutions.So that will be our major contribution to our mineral sector in addition to actually safely producing the minerals. In addition to having a safe disposal solution, we are continuously and actively pursuing opportunities to utilize the tailings from Engebø. And we have just summarized a few initiatives, which we are now working on. Last year, we did an MoU with a Norwegian company, Saferock, which want to use part of the tailings as cement binders, also reducing climate emissions. We have signed an MoU with Greentrail Holding for sales of pyrite, iron sulfate, which is part of the process stream at Engebø, which potentially can reduce the volume of tailings over time.In addition, we have joined the Sunnfjord municipality and the county in establishing a mineral incubator locally. That will do research on mineral in particular, but also utilization of the excess minerals. And finally, we have joined the Campus Førde initiative, which belongs to the college on Vestlandet, where there will be joint collaboration between students, other institutions, and we will also assist with having laboratory equipment at sites.We are extremely focused on getting Engebø into production. That is focus #1. But at the same time, we have a longer perspective for Nordic. So we are positioning ourselves to look at what we call post-exploration assets and other growth initiatives for Nordic. As we published last year, we have reviewed again the possibility to develop a high purity quartz deposit on the West Coast of Norway, together with another company. You will hear more about that later on. And we have just finalized a preliminary conceptual study for production of sponge titanium metal from the natural rutile at Engebø in the future.Natural rutile is the best and the preferred feedstock for making high quality titanium metal. We're also strengthening our corporate office here in Oslo. So Mr. Trond Langeng will join us in March as a new manager for resource and development.So with that, I'll hand over to Kenneth to take us through the status at Engebø.

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

Thank you, Ivar.As mentioned by Ivar, we have had no lost time injuries in the fourth quarter. And project to date, we have an LTI of 656 days. We have had an average of 90 workers in the quarter with a peak of up to 120 workers during periods with larger concrete formwork. And the next quarter is expected to -- EPC2 reduces some of their workforce at sites, but increase from EPC3 and EPC4. We have no new high potential incidents in the quarter, but we have reclassified some incidents from previous quarter into the high potential category.So as Ivar mentioned, we are still on track on production ramp-up in fourth quarter 2024. We see that EPC1 has, in the last quarter, done a lot of work related to water management and started up sedimentation dam construction as part of our approved waste rock permit. The large part of the buried services in the process plant are now completed. EPC2 has done a significant work with relations to concrete foundations both in the underground crushing chamber but also finalizing the process plant buildings civil work, so that mechanical installation can now happen on all 3 main process buildings.EPC2 has close to finalize the administration and workshop building with only minor surface work remaining and technical installation started. EPC3 and EPC4 are now at site doing mechanical installation and electrical work for the grounding and earthing of the civil and steel construction. On the economy side, we see that through detail engineering and design freeze process with the EPCs and other contractors, we have increased costs.Main reason for this is change in battery limits between the EPC, which has enabled and exposed the project to inflation, salary increase, and the weak NOK towards the major currencies such as USD and euros. The weak NOK during 2023 has contributed to the increased cost in the project, but you also see that through the $50 million drawdown, we had positive and favorable exchange rates in the market. Right now, the project contingency is fully committed, and we are expecting to use approximately USD 5 million of the USD 30 million project reserve.Looking a little bit at pictures and what is happening at Engebø. There's a big logistic operation getting all the process equipment to site. As mentioned in the highlights, we have 100% of the process equipment in fabrication, but we already see now deliveries to site and at our intermediate storage facility in Bergen. So for Q1 '24, we are now preparing installation of the rod mill, which is already on site. We brought the rod mill shell, as you can see on the left-hand picture to Bergen by truck and boat and also by a small boat to Engebø for lifting and preparation.So this is the largest shipment that we will have in a single piece of equipment, which is already at site at Engebø. If you look at mechanical installation starting up in December last year, we have had great progress both in December and in January. The picture on the left side sees a view from Northeast towards the process plant. And what you see is that crushing throughout the steel structure for a crushing circuit in the combination of milling plant closest and the white tent is the preparation for installation of the rod mill. In the background, you see the wet plant with sumps and pumps being installed, and we are close to finalizing and installing the next level in this building.Looking a little bit from another direction, we also see that steel structure has arrived at Engebø for the dry plant. And last week, they started erecting the steel structure for the dry plant building on the closest building in the left picture. On the top right corner, you see the remaining the buried services coming into an area where we will have water tanks and the thickener to reduce and reuse water into the process plant.On the bottom right corner, we see a picture of the start-up of tunnel works from the mining service area and into the open pit. This is a non-critical time line work, but we see benefit in doing this already now to prepare as much as possible before mining operations. As mentioned, we only have minor surface work and technical installation in our multipurpose administration building left. The administration building host the control room, the laboratory, the wardrobes and offices, and cantina for all our workers in the process plant.We are expecting to install and set up the control room with control room desks already by the end of February. So in terms of ESG, we are still working on the baseline update of our environment parameters, and we are this week actually doing a full sea-bottom scanning or bathymetry scan of the Førde Fjord and the areas around it, which will help us to get a great overview of how we stand in terms of sea-bottom 3D from before we start the production at Engebø. We have recruited roughly 30 persons already into the operation staff and are preparing now through marketing of the jobs in student and job fairs, both local and regionally.And we expect to start a larger campaign for the operation team in mid-Q2 this year.

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

Thank you, Kenneth.A few comments on the market. As we saw in the last quarter, the titanium market is still divided with a subdued pigment market due to a reluctant and decreasing real estate market, all across Europe, Americas, including China. However, we see some positive signals for the first quarter of this year based on various factors. The inventory levels are low throughout pigment producers. We see that EU is planning anti-dumping initiatives versus China. And also the unrest in the Red Sea is playing a role with regard to logistics and shipments of pigment as well as feedstocks.But of course, the pigment market demand being slow is, of course, also impacting in general, the feedstock sector. We see the total opposite trend for the titanium metal market, where the demand is strong and has been strong throughout the last half year, basically based on a strong recovery of the civil aircraft industry, but of course, also fueled from the military sectors around the world. On the garnet side, we also see a somewhat subdued market with a seasonal dip in The States. There have been weather problems causing logistical bottlenecks for shipping and transportation, the conflict in Ukraine and also Middle East have led to an uncertain economy in Europe, which also has an impact on the garnet offtakes.And as with all other commodities in the world, we see logistical problems and uncertainties with regard to shipping our material around the globe.So with that, I leave the word to Jens to give an update on financials.

[Jens Schnelle, executive]

Thank you, Ivar.I'll provide a financial update for the fourth quarter. Construction expenditures of NOK 322 million was capitalized under mine under construction in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2023, the amount was NOK 1.1 billion. And the total consolidated carrying amount as of year-end was NOK 1.4 billion. During the quarter, we completed a drawdown of the USD 50 million royalty financing. As part of that drawdown, our cost-to-complete test was verified by an independent technical engineer. The group has a solid source of funding for the project. We had NOK 635 million in cash and cash equivalents at quarter end where NOK 522 million was located in Engebø. We also had NOK 1.1 billion on our bond Escrow account available to us, subject to certain CPs.One of those CPs is a cost-to-complete test that needs to be verified by an independent technical engineer, similar to the exercise we performed in connection with the drawdown of the royalty financing. We are guiding today that the current expectation is that the remaining project reserve will be allocated to Engebø Rutile and Garnet AS, the project entity in order to ensure its robustness and to meet the minimum liquidity requirement of USD 15 million as part of the bond agreement.We are currently focused on fulfilling the CPs in order to enable us to drawdown USD 30 million on the bond Escrow account. In the second half of this quarter, we expect to draw another USD 30 million on the bond Escrow in the second quarter. And at the moment, our expectation is that we will draw the remaining amount on the bond Escrow into the third quarter of this year.For details, I refer you to see the full interim report located on our website, nordicmining.com.And with that, we will move over to the Q&A session.

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. We have received many good questions, some of them about the same topic, which we'll try to group as best as we can.And we can start with this legal risks. Given the pending Supreme Court ruling mentioned in the report, the company expressed confidence in facing little to insignificant risk. However, as a cautious shareholder, could you elaborate on the basis of this confidence especially what factors or legal advice have led the company to this optimistic assessment?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

I wish I could dive into giving more detailed comments, but I don't think we should speculate too much. The ruling will come in 4 or 5 weeks from now, and we shall see, but we remain confident. And part of that is, of course, also the verdict in 2 rounds before.

[Unknown Executive]

Is there a plan B if Nordic Mining loses the appeal case from AMR in the Supreme Court?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

We are not speculating on plan Bs on this. As we said in the presentation, we either see no impact or insignificant impact.

[Unknown Executive]

A question about rutile prices. Are they in line with what Nordic Mining has forecasted?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

Yes, they are quite a bit in line. We saw in the fourth quarter a fairly wide spread of pricing ranging from the mid-1,200s in part of the pigment sector, up to the 1,800s for the welding sector. So a wide spread and also the forecast going forward has various scenarios, but mostly on the upside part of things. So we consider pricing now to be more or less in line with forecasts.

[Unknown Executive]

In light of the memorandum of understanding for the Kvinnherad quartz project, public records suggest that Nordic Mining has not yet secured landowner agreement on necessary licenses for the quartz deposit. Could you outline the company's strategy and time line for obtaining those critical agreements and licenses to ensure the project's progression?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

We have established landowner agreements. And apart from that, I won't speculate too much. It's very early stage. Going forward, it's a completely potentially different project than Engebø in terms of size and everything. But we will try to get back to you and giving more flavor to this as we move forward.

[Unknown Executive]

Kenneth, we have some questions about the project development. Has the harsh winter on the West Coast impacted the construction?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

To some extent, but not significant. Right now, we see the biggest risk in wind, meaning wind above our lifting requirements, which is the key for our progress now in the mechanical installation. Before Christmas, there was a lot of cold, but this didn't really hinder our process and our project construction. So I think that remains -- the critical point is lifting operations and wind.

[Unknown Executive]

Could you please say a bit more about your hiring process and what competence you are still looking for? Are you able to get people with the skills you need? What kind of skill set would be the most important for you to get now in the near future?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

I think we are crossing the line where we have hired the higher education resources we need. And our focus now is on operators and technical people to work in our production plant. So it changes a little bit on how and what type of resources we require. But right now, we are focusing on those with operating experience and those with less operating experience that we will train ourselves as part of the collaboration with the local university and college.

[Unknown Executive]

Given the mention in the report of a potential increase in project costs by up to 5 million due to inflation, exchange rates, and scope changes, how did the company initially assess this risk during the planning process? Can you provide some insights into that?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

In the planning and as part of UDFS, we did a thorough quantity risk assessment. And one of the key items that we see now is, as mentioned in the presentation that we have needed to change some of the battery limits, exposing then the project cost to the market prices right now. Another reason is that we see that some of these, call it, auxiliary systems such as earthing and lightning and fire protection system has seen increased cost because of pricing in today's market and increased system requirements as part of our final and detail engineering.

[Unknown Executive]

The CapEx spend per quarter continues to be lower than the original budget. What are the arguments that this will not cause a project delay?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

The initial projections was based on payment plans from the EPCs. We see that some of these payment plans did not fully take into account the required holdbacks and other measures in how and when we should pay the EPCs. So this is the main and big effect in terms of the changes in the spending versus the initial spending curve.

[Unknown Executive]

Some question about the financials. How do the fluctuation in currency exchange rates impact the financial terms and conditions of your offtake agreements for rutile and garnet? Given the company's exposure to NOK and U.S. dollar exchange rates, what measures are in place to mitigate potential adverse effects on the agreements' profitability and predictability?

[Jens Schnelle, executive]

So basically, our offtake agreements are USD dollar-denominated. Our costs are in NOK. So the current weak NOK is a benefit if seen from a commercial point of view as we will get the revenue in dollars and pay in NOK. In terms of systems that are in place to safeguard if the NOK were to strengthen, we are looking at various hedging strategies, including forwards. We have in place agreements with foreign exchange providers, but it's a bit early to put in place more than a year in advance of commercial activity.

[Unknown Executive]

Considering the bond agreements' detailed terms regarding distribution and permitted distribution, it seems that Nordic Mining retains some flexibility in using its net revenue for purposes other than dividends, such as reinvesting in the business or other forms of shareholder value enhancement. Provided these do not involve the direct use of bond proceeds for shareholder distributions, could you elaborate on how Nordic Mining plans to allocate its net profit while adhering to those bonds' restrictions?

[Jens Schnelle, executive]

All right. So I think it's a bit early for us to speculate exactly on how we will use our surplus cash into '25 after commercial production has started. I don't think I will go into a guesstimate on what we will exactly use it for. But clearly, we will make decisions that make sense for the shareholders at that time.

[Unknown Executive]

With regards to the increased logistical risks on the equipment delivery, is this solely due to shipping or are you also seeing delays on the fabrication from the manufacturers?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

Of course. Effect of the situation does not only affect us, but it also potentially affect our fabrication. To date, we don't see any specific issue, but we have, in the past, seen issues that have been mitigated and construction methodologies has been changed to facilitate delays from the fabricators.

[Unknown Executive]

How come there has been a change of battery limit at the Engebø project?

[Kenneth Angedal, executive]

It is several reasons, one of them being -- finding the most suitable EPCs and also about trying to reduce building sizes as much as possible and moving then scope of work outside of EPC3 to EPC4 and to EPC2. So it has been a part of the optimization for the final solution at Engebø.

[Unknown Executive]

Could you tell us more about the potential future production of Ti-sponge titanium metal based on Engebø natural?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

It's a bit too early to elaborate on that. But as I said, we carried out a preliminary conceptual study to understand the main factors and what could be a future potential within this field.

[Unknown Executive]

How integrated will the pyrite extraction be? Are you aiming for extraction of trace minerals like Scandium? Not at start maybe, but in the future?

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

We have no specific plans to look at these kind of minor minerals in the Engebø tailings. However, all of these potentials may be further examined once we are into production.

[Unknown Executive]

I believe we are getting to the bottom of the list with questions. Just see if they are coming some more, a minute or 2. I don't think there is any more questions. The presentation must have been crystal clear.You may say some words at the end, Ivar.

[Ivar Fossum, executive]

No. Again, thank you very much for following us during this webcast. It will be posted on our website. If you have any further questions, please take contact with us on telephone or by e-mail. Thank you.