Link Mobility Group Holding ASA

OSE:LINK

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q3

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Good morning and welcome to the third quarter results presentation for LINK Mobility.

I am Tom Rogn, Head of Investor Relations. I'm joined by Thomas Berge, Interim CEO; and Morten Edvardsen, Interim CFO, who will present the results.

[Operator Instructions] Thomas?

[Thomas Berge, executive]

Thank you, Tom. And welcome to LINK's third quarter presentation.

I will start off with a review of the third quarter performance and current plans. LINK is the leading and largest CPaaS player in Europe. Our strategy is dedicated to providing digital communication products to the enterprise market, for them to interact with their end customers. We approach the enterprise market through a strategy of local touch points with our clients.

LINK's 50,000 clients, serviced by our 30 offices in 19 countries, are a result of the successful implementation of the strategy over many years. We want to build high-value solutions for our enterprise clients that results in a long-lasting and sticky customer relationship, with value-added upselling opportunities for future years. LINK is continuously investing in its product portfolio to adapt and cater to future demand within our space. We have a well-positioned product portfolio ahead of current market adoption that matches or surpasses our competitors.

Group revenue during the last 12 months was recorded at almost NOK 5 billion. LINK has grown significantly over the last year with a CAGR of 20%. Profitability has always been a priority. LINK is growing the business organically while generating profitability and net positive operating cash flow. Reported adjusted EBITDA in 2019 of NOK 308 million has grown to NOK 613 million on an LTM basis for the third quarter of 2022 or a CAGR of 26%.

Revenue is reported at over NOK 1.3 billion or an 18% growth. Organic revenue growth for the third quarter is 17% in fixed FX. Revenue growth for the third quarter was higher than expected as a result of temporary higher password volumes from a new client, a global hyperscaler; and strong performance in the global messaging unit.

LINK has built a business relationship with the new hyperscaler client, starting with more basic products like low-margin password messages, with the ambition to upsell more profitable and sticky solution. In the current quarter, we have already been successful in signing new agreements for higher-margin solutions and see considerable potential going forward.

Gross margin is reported at NOK 346 million or a 7% growth. The higher revenue contribution from password volumes and global messaging dilutes total gross profit margins, as I will elaborate on, on the next slide. For enterprise regions, gross profit margins are stable.

The adjusted EBITDA is reported at NOK 166 million with a 9% growth year-over-year. The company has clearly communicated a cost reduction target being implemented and finalized over the next quarters. The OpEx reductions will have an annualized run rate impact of over NOK 50 million when fully implemented, amounting to approximately 8% increase in the current LTM adjusted EBITDA.

Cash flow from operations at NOK 38 million, negatively impacted by working capital fluctuations in the current quarter. Working capital varies somewhat from quarter to quarter but is stable on an LTM basis, reported flat at NOK 1 million over the last 12 months. Net cash generation after interest and CapEx is reported at over NOK 200 million on an LTM basis.

LINK is happy to report a high inflow of newly signed contracts in the current quarter with 420 new agreements, which is a 15% increase compared to the same period of last year.

The revenue composition in the third quarter deviates from previous quarters. Higher revenue contribution from lower-margin password traffic and global messaging leads to a larger revenue growth than gross profit growth. The mix effect becomes clear with the different gross profit margins by our revenue streams, as displayed in the chart. A higher share of revenue deriving from global messaging and password volumes at 8% and 6% gross profit margins, respectively, dilutes total gross profit margins compared to revenue streams from the more profitable enterprise segment.

Enterprise Europe reports a gross profit margin of 26%, and the high-margin business in the U.S. at 90% gross profit margin. LINK expects the password revenue deriving from the new hyperscaler client to be lower in coming quarters, as LINK will focus more on upselling of higher-margin solutions. In the current quarter, several new agreements were signed with this customer for higher-margin solutions to be implemented over the next quarters, with considerable potential for further new business.

Global messaging reports a spike in revenue, with gross profit margins within normal range. The higher revenue was a result of increased market interest in selected routes that were available for global messaging in the current quarter.

Message Broadcast experienced a good quarter, with critical events at the normalized level and signing several large new contracts that were delayed from Q1 and Q2 mainly related to professional services.

Organic gross profit growth is the top priority for LINK. As communicated in the previous quarter, LINK is recalibrating commercial efforts to focus more on existing growth opportunities for products with proven market demand. Detailed sales plans per product and per sales representative have been developed, and everyone executes relentlessly to improve the growth momentum for gross profit.

On this slide, a few examples are highlighted to give some insight into how we work to achieve gross profit growth. These examples are part of a much longer list of initiatives to leverage growth opportunities we observe in the current market. LINK has an extensive pipeline of opportunities with the global clients beyond the reach of our local sales force. The sales process is more complicated for these clients, but the revenue potential is also large. LINK has already signed several new agreements, so far, in 2022 and will continue to build momentum in 2023.

Upselling new solutions or products to existing clients is a growing opportunity for LINK with an expanding product portfolio which we are now prioritizing even more. LINK has the required understanding of the clients and their value chains to both increase value through new solutions; and by converting existing volumes to more complex services like Rich SMS, RCS and 2-way communication. LINK has sold a vast number of different products and use cases to our 50,000 clients. So we have the insight and product library to execute.

In the current market, LINK sees increased interest in products and solutions, saving costs for clients through replacing personnel-intensive legacy solutions with more efficient digital communication products, which also increase end user satisfaction. Security products like LINK's sender ID protection to limit fraud and spam are new products that we observe good market demand for, especially among our bigger brands. Gross profit for such products is high and, with LINK's 50,000 customer accounts, the perfect base to launch these products.

LINK is continuing to explore the full potential of the utility vertical in the U.S. Penetration rates are still low, with many utility companies not utilizing digital messaging products. Broadening our presence with existing clients by both upselling new solutions and displacing other vendors is expected to build growth momentum. These clients are huge but slow and bureaucratic, with time line obstacles for signing, implementing and scaling the solutions. LINK is working closely with the regulators and the utilities to adapt to future requirements and needs, including environmental considerations.

As an addition to pursue priority #1, gross profit growth, a plan for OpEx and CapEx savings has been launched. This will contribute to an EBITDA improvement of NOK 13 million per quarter by the end of 2023 or an annualized impact of NOK 52 million. Lower OpEx and CapEx will increase net cash generation by NOK 22 million per quarter by the end of 2023 or an annualized impact of almost NOK 90 million in additional cash generation. For transparency, the company will report on the progress of OpEx and CapEx savings in the following quarters.

LINK delivers new agreements which will secure future growth. As you can see from the graphs, in the current quarter, LINK delivered a NOK 6 million or 32% growth in the expected value of annualized gross profit on signed agreements this quarter compared to the same quarter of last year. New contracts for the more traditional A2P products grew satisfactory with NOK 4 million or 27% growth on estimated annualized gross profit contribution year-over-year. Contracts will be implemented gradually. And historical data indicates 75% of gross profit will be recorded in the P&L after the first 12 months for market-ready products.

New contracts for CPaaS products are displaying a 97% growth rate compared to same quarter last year on estimated gross profit contribution. For these advanced products, we observe longer lead time to scale and generate the estimated gross profit.

LINK has close to 50,000 customer accounts and has attracted almost 2,000 new customer accounts organically compared to the same period last year. Revenue churn is consistently low, around 1% of revenue. The third quarter is the slowest quarter for new contract signings due to summer vacation. The 420 contracts signed in the current quarter is 15% higher than same quarter last year.

LINK recreates the forward-looking statement with organic revenue growth of between 8% and 12% for the full year of 2022, so everything is the same here.

Handing the word over to Morten to take us through the financial section.

[Morten Edvardsen, executive]

Thank you, Thomas.

I will now go through the third quarter financials for the group.

Looking at the revenue development. LINK reports quarter revenue of more than NOK 1.3 billion, an 18% growth, with limited contribution from M&A this quarter. Organic growth excluding acquired entities is reported at 17% in fixed currency, with a strong contribution from onboarding of volumes from global hyperscaler client and high revenue growth in the global messaging segment this quarter.

In the quarter, Message Broadcast in the U.S. reported a revenue growth of 12% from both messaging solutions and normalized critical event messaging. The main drivers for critical event messaging during the quarter were a heat wave in California and the Hurricane Ian. The heat wave in California drove energy consumption towards maximum capacity due to high demand for air conditioning and made utilities run rolling blackouts to reduce consumption. Such planned blackouts need to be communicated to clients, hence triggering messaging volumes. The Hurricane Ian triggered volumes related to information before, during and after it hit populated areas. Critical event messaging was conducted through several channels, including traditional messaging or SMS, e-mail and voice messaging solutions.

Underlying performance in the European enterprise regions was in line with the previous quarter, adjusted for seasonal effects, except for in Central Europe. In Central Europe, revenue related to onetime password traffic from the global hyperscaler client more than compensated for a decline in COVID traffic last year. The higher revenue growth and volume growth was affected by non-messaging revenue, like licenses and professional services, and a global messaging volume mix towards destinations with higher price per message this quarter.

Moving over to the next slide and the gross profit development. Gross profit is reported at NOK 346 million or a reported growth of 7%, with only a limited impact from acquisitions. Organic gross profit grew 4% in fixed currency. Growth in gross profit both year-on-year and quarter-over-quarter was driven by top line growth in the U.S. and in the global messaging segment.

The higher gross profit contribution in the U.S. was related to normalized critical event messaging and some catch-up on professional services related to signed new contracts since the second quarter. The gross profit development in the European enterprise regions was relatively stable considering normal seasonality, especially in Western Europe.

The gross profit growth is lower than revenue growth this quarter, driven by a margin dilution effect related to the high OTP traffic in Central Europe and the high revenue growth in the global messaging segment. In the lower graph, we have bridged out the development in gross margin year-on-year. The reported gross margin declined 2.9 percentage points to 26.4%, driven mainly by Central Europe and global messaging. In Central Europe, the decline in high-margin COVID traffic compared to last year is replaced by revenue from the hyperscaler, initially at low margins but with future margin upside from other products. In the graph, you also see the margin dilution effect due to a higher share of revenue from the global messaging segment this quarter.

Moving on to adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA is reported at NOK 166 million and had total growth of 9%, reflecting the organic development. The increase in adjusted EBITDA both quarter-over-quarter and year-on-year was driven by improved gross profit from the U.S. and from global messaging following strong top line growth. As mentioned, we expect a gradual positive impact on adjusted EBITDA from the cost initiatives implemented from next quarter.

Moving on to the P&L overview. In previous slides, we have already been through the P&L, down to adjusted EBITDA. Nonrecurring costs consist of restructuring costs, direct M&A costs and share option costs, costs which are not associated with the underlying operations of the company. The reported M&A costs are mainly related to advisory costs.

The reported share option costs are accounting treatment of a future dilution effect from shares to be issued, with a very limited cash outflow over time and none in the current quarter. For the third quarter, the share option costs are reported at NOK 13 million, which is in line with the first quarter this year as a onetime correction was included in the second quarter. We expect a lower cost to be booked in the fourth quarter, with -- the second of 3 RSU tranches will be vested in October.

Cost of depreciation is reported at NOK 105 million, in line with previous quarters, whereas NOK 79 million relates to the depreciation of assets deriving from purchase price allocation of acquired companies. Net financial items are reported at NOK 71 million, positively impacted by net currency gain of NOK 112 million and NOK 37 million in interest costs.

Moving on to the next slide and the balance sheet. The total balance sheet reported at NOK 11 billion, with a stable equity ratio of 49%, compared to previous quarter's. Cash reserves are stable from last quarter above NOK 900 million, substantially above the level needed for operational purposes.

Receivables increased by NOK 316 million year-on-year, and payables increased by NOK 321 million. Both increases reflect the organic development and normal fluctuations of working capital related to collections and payments. Revenue growth in the U.S. business drives a higher increase in receivables than payables due to revenue mix and the gross margin level, affecting the working capital in the quarter.

Net interest-bearing debt is reported at NOK 2.9 billion and related to LINK's one outstanding bond. The bond has a low fixed coupon of 3.375%, with no maturities or covenants before December 2025, securing LINK an attractive long-term funding. On October 5, LINK made an early settlement of the seller's credit related to the Tismi acquisition in 2021. The total amount paid out was NOK 73 million, including principal and accrued interest.

Net cash flow from operating activities, including nonrecurring costs for M&A, is reported at NOK 476 million on an LTM basis or NOK 38 million in the current quarter, which was negatively impacted by working capital movements. Working capital will continue to vary from quarter to quarter but is stable over time. The fluctuations are purely related to normal timing effects of payable and receivables.

Cash flow from operations, excluding nonrecurring costs mainly related to M&A, was NOK 552 million on an LTM basis or a ratio of 90% compared to LTM adjusted EBITDA.

LINK generates significant excess cash also after CapEx and interest costs. Looking at the free cash flow: After deducting CapEx of NOK 191 million and annual interest costs of NOK 143 million, LINK generated excess cash during the last 12 months of well above NOK 200 million, in line with previous quarters. Both measures taken to improve gross profit and the reductions in OpEx and CapEx are expected to support improved cash flow generation in the coming quarters.

The leverage remains [ above ] LINK's financial policy. The financial policy is, however, unchanged. And LINK has a top priority to reduce leverage through cash flow-generating initiatives such as gross profit growth and OpEx and CapEx reductions.

That completes the financial section. Now over to Tom and Q&A.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Thank you, Morten.

We are then ready to start the Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Operator, can you please help us with the Q&A?

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] As there are no questions from the call at this moment, I will now hand it back to the speakers.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

We will then continue with posted questions. First question is from Mads Rosendal, and he has some questions regarding the cost initiatives and timing of one-off costs.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

Yes. I can start by answering that question, Mads. We haven't given a specific guidance on one-off costs in connections with the cost savings. We have been very specific when it comes to OpEx reductions and CapEx reductions. And the run rate by the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, it's going to be close to NOK 90 million. We normally see one-off costs in connections with savings like that around 25% to 30%. That is what we normally see. It's important to remember that not all of the cost reductions will have an associated one-off cost. It's mostly the cost items related to personnel where we will book a one-off cost in that connection.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Next questions are from Charlie Brennan, yes. So the first question is regarding focus on revenue and gross profit. Which one is the most relevant for the business? And with LINK's current priority of mature products, has -- how that will impact the growth for advanced solutions.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

I think both revenue growth and gross profit growth is important. Revenue growth as a stand-alone measure, it's not important. It needs to be connected with gross profit growth, but revenue growth combined with gross profit growth, the focus on both KPIs for the company makes a lot of sense. Yes, we are doing some smaller investments in the development of new solutions and features. This is mainly connected, as we said in the previous quarter, to the fact that we are ahead of market adoption. And we -- our view is that there will be no negative effects of [ halting ] parts of the development road map based on where we are compared to what the market is demanding. I think I answered that question. I'm not sure what was meant by the last one, Tom. Do you, did you understand that?

[Tom Rogn, executive]

On the guiding, how that -- if there's an impact on the guiding of the company in relation to the shift to mature products.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

On CapEx, there is. We previously said that we expect NOK 100 million in CapEx per year. Now with close to NOK 40 million reduction, by the end of 2023, we should be closer to NOK 140 million. Thank you for the clarification, Tom.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have some questions from Daniel Djurberg. The first question relates to the hyperscaler and if there are any higher-margin business already booked through that client. How will we be able to be a sticky business with the hyperscaler? Or if there are investments related to that. And also, on the hyperscaler contract, why are LINK focusing on that type of business?

[Thomas Berge, executive]

Yes, we have signed several contracts on high-profit solutions, regarding this client. The gross profit margin, it's around 50% to -- the highest is 80%. There will be no specific product development or CapEx connected to the implementation of these contracts, but there are, of course, going to be implementation costs when it comes to OpEx as normal when we implement new contracts. It's pretty sticky, the advanced solutions. It's not comparable to password traffic at all. These are more sticky solutions. And it's more difficult for the client to displace us as a vendor because the products are more complicated. And we own the functionality basically, enabling what the client wants to achieve...

[Tom Rogn, executive]

I think we can do the, move to the follow-up question from Daniel Djurberg, regarding online retailers and basically discounts for inventories in the retail business and what LINK sees for Q4 volumes.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

We haven't been specific on what we see for our retail volumes in the fourth quarter, but what I can say as of now, sort of the retail sector is developing according to our expectations. The fourth quarter is peak season for retail volumes. That is it's mostly in November and December, but so far in October, we see a development which is comparable to our expectations.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have an accounting question related to if the OTP volumes which are currently booked in the Central Europe segment could have been booked in the global messaging segment.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

It's not an accounting question. I think this is more sort of a client question, and the answer from my perspective is that -- is no. In order to secure the high-margin solutions, we sell these as we do to any normal enterprise clients. The business dynamics between us and the clients, it's more similar to an enterprise. And it's not similar at all to aggregator dynamics.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have a question regarding weather in California. How is the weather in U.S. compared to last year?

[Thomas Berge, executive]

This is for you, Morten.

[Morten Edvardsen, executive]

Yes. I think, so far in the fourth quarter, there hasn't been that much activity in the Atlantic. And I think we're sort of -- it's sort of a [ normal sort of ] past the hurricane season and so it's, yes, more sort of normalized now. The effects that we usually see in the fourth quarter is related to the drought in California and the winds coming in. So far, it hasn't been a lot of wind activity, so far, in the quarter, but the season is not over yet.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have another question regarding, excluding the OpEx reductions, how will payroll track gross profit. To understand the scalability of the business.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

We haven't given any specific forward-looking statement on how payroll would track gross profit, but normally when you look at both percentages and especially in currency, the gross profit should increase to a higher extent than payroll. And especially, next year, with the cuts that we are doing on OpEx, that should -- I guess it's a sensible expectation that we will both see a gross profit increase in percent and currency which is higher than the payroll change.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have some questions on cost inflation related to COGS and personnel; and also some follow-up on what the company expects on net working capital and cash taxes during the year; and lastly, also if there is a split of advertising-related revenue as part of the total business.

[Morten Edvardsen, executive]

I think -- on the working capital, I think that sort of last 12 months is a good estimate. We expect working capital to be stable over time. We had a negative impact during the quarter related to increased top line. Especially in the U.S., we have a high margin, so we don't have the corresponding payables. Beyond that, it's just more related to normal fluctuations and typically larger clients being a little bit later. Then that would impact the sort of the cutoff for the quarter, so we don't see an underlying [ worrying ] trend on working capital. So I think that's the best estimate. On the taxes, I think also the last 12 months is probably a good view on the full year cash effect on that.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

You can maybe take the question relating to the split of advertising-related revenue.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

Yes. We're transparent on that. In the second quarter, last quarter, around 20% of revenue derives from mobile marketing-related use cases. Around 70% relates to notifications. And just below 10%, it's customer support use cases. It's the same for the third quarter. There are no sort of -- change there doesn't happen overnight. It takes a longer time to get the fractions to move.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have question related to bond buybacks, if that is an alternative for the company.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

Yes, it's an alternative. This is something we are considering. No decision has been taken.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

[Operator Instructions]

[Operator]

There are no further questions from the call, and I will now hand it back to the speakers.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Yes. We'll give it a minute for any posted questions. Then we have another question from Daniel Djurberg, related to the RCS channel and how that is developing, especially in France which has been a leading market for that.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

It's growing quite rapidly. And it's the growth momentum is increasing, especially in France which is the market that is the most advanced on adopting RCS. It's also growing nicely in Italy and we see a steep growth momentum there too. In other markets, it is slower mainly due to mobile operators dragging their feet on the implementation of the channel.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we have a question related to then the CEO and if there's any progress on the search for a permanent CEO.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

The Board is responsible for, of course, the permanent CEO. They are running a diligent process. And the message I've got is that the most important criteria is to make sure that they secure the best permanent solution for the company and that they are confident that the interim solution is good also for the company, that we are driving progress and there is no vacuum as a result of the CEO search.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

We currently have no further questions. Please post any additional questions. And we have a follow-up on the inflation question. What type of personnel expense inflation do you see?

[Thomas Berge, executive]

It depends on what country we're talking about. Inflation translates into salary adjustments to a larger extent in Eastern Europe. We see larger price increases in Poland and Bulgaria. In Italy, Spain and France, we see less pressure from inflation on salaries due to higher unemployment rates. In Germany that's also the same. It doesn't -- it hasn't translated into a material salary increase yet. And that's the same for the Nordics. In the U.S., we see somewhat higher salary increases, especially for IT resources developers.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

We will give another minute for any additional questions. We have a follow-up on CTO position and permanent placement there.

[Thomas Berge, executive]

My expectation is that this is going to be secured by November.

[Tom Rogn, executive]

Then we will give it another minute. As there are no additional questions, we thank all participants and conclude Q&A.