Hafnia Ltd

OSE:HAFNI

Earnings Call Analysis

Company Reports Solid Earnings and Enhanced Payouts

In the third quarter, a Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) income of $310.3 million contributed to a net profit of $146.9 million. Year-to-date TCE income surpassed $1 billion, with strong projections based on 65% of Q4 covered at rates around $29,893 per day. A robust balance sheet featured $125 million in cash, over $500 million in total liquidity, and 77.4% hedged debt at 1.6%. Dividends increased to $0.2032 per share, upping the yearly payout to $384.8 million, equating to a 62.4% ratio, and are set to hit the highest payout ratio in Hafnia history at 70% due to the lowered net LTV ratio from 30.1% to 27.4%.

Company Overview and Strategic Highlights

Led by CEO Mikael Skov, Hafnia is a preeminent player in the product and chemical tanker market, boasting over 200 vessels in its diversified portfolio. The company recently celebrated the delivery of the Hafnia Larvik, expanding its eco-friendly fleet with LNG dual-fuel capabilities. With a robust net asset value per share of $7.2, Hafnia's financial backbone remains strong. Additionally, the company is progressing towards a U.S. secondary listing to enhance share liquidity and broaden its investor base, albeit without additional capital fundraising.

Robust Financial Performance

Hafnia delivered strong financial results amidst market adjustments from geopolitical tensions. The third quarter concluded with a net profit of $146.9 million, contributing to a sizeable year-to-date net profit of $616.8 million. A notable reduction in the net LTV ratio, from over 64% to 27.4%, reflects robust balance sheet optimization and presages an increase in the payout ratio to 70% of net profit, marking a historic peak for the company. Dividend payouts have been impressive, totaling $102.9 million for the third quarter, while achieving an impressive TCE income of $310.3 million for the same period.

Operational and Financial Discipline

Hafnia's operational success is underpinned by a sound financial structure, with a cash balance of $125 million and total liquidity surpassing $500 million. With over three-quarters of its debt effectively hedged against interest rate spikes, the company's strategic financial management is poised to leverage market opportunities while ensuring sustainability against the volatile backdrop.

Market Outlook and Competitive Positioning

The company enters the fourth quarter on a robust note, propelled by strong seasonal factors that are driving a rise in clean petroleum product loads and extending transportation distances. A focus on efficiency is paramount as the company benchmarks against peers to operate competitively, looking forward to a continued upward trajectory with a healthy coverage rate of 65% at an average TCE rate of $29,893 per day. Additionally, the evolving refinery landscape, particularly in the Middle East and China, promises to enhance ton-mile demand—a key revenue driver for the tanker fleet.

Fleet Dynamics and Industry Trends

The age profile of the global product tanker fleet is shifting toward scrapping, with a concomitant reduction in utilization for older vessels. With new builds comprising 10.6% of the existing fleet, predominantly LR2s, long-term capacity appears well-managed, guarding against industry oversupply. The aging fleet, combined with sentiment over potential lifting of Russian oil sanctions, suggests a limited impact on the underlying market dynamics, reinforcing Hafnia's positioning amid these trends.

Commitment to Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Initiatives

Beyond financial and operational acumen, Hafnia is actively engaged in ESG pursuits. Notably, a partnership with SOCATRA has culminated in the order of four duel-fuel methanol vessels, marking a significant step towards decarbonizing its fleet. Hafnia's ongoing ESG projects not only demonstrate its environmental stewardship but also pave the way for continued success and greater shareholder returns in an evolving maritime sector.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Operator]

Welcome to Hafnia Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Presentation. We will begin shortly. You will be brought through the presentation by Hafnia CEO, Mikael Skov, CFO, Perry Van Echtelt, Vice President, Commercial; Søren Vinda, Executive Vice President, Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen. They will be pleased to address any questions after the presentation. [Operator Instructions]

Certain statements in this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements based upon management's current expectations and include known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors many of which Hafnia is unable to predict or control that may cause Hafnia's actual results, performance or plans to differ materially from any future results, performance or plans expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. In addition, nothing in this conference call constitutes an offer to purchase or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities.

With that, I'm pleased to turn the call over to Hafnia CEO, Mikael Skov.

[Mikael Opstun Skov, executive]

Thank you. My name is Mikael Skov, and I am the CEO of Hafnia. Let me welcome and thank all of you for attending Hafnia's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call. With me here today are our CFO, Perry Van Echtelt; VP for Commercial, San Winter; and EVP, Head of Investor Relations, Thomas Andersen. Together, we will present Hafnia's present half year third quarter 2023 financials.

Today's presentation agenda consists of 4 key areas. I will start with an overview and highlight key corporate developments during the quarter. Following that, we will look into the financial performance for the third quarter. Next, we will provide commercial update and an outlook on the product tanker market before concluding the presentation with our ESCO review.

Let's move to Slide #2. Before we proceed, you should all be aware and take note of the mandatory disclaimer. Certain statements in this conference call may constitute forward-looking statements and it's important to recognize that these statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties. In addition, nothing in this conference call constitutes an offer to purchase or sell or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Thank you for your understanding, and let's continue with the presentation.

Let me begin by giving an overview of Hafnia and the main highlights in the third quarter. Slide #4. Hafnia is one of the world's leading tanker owners and operators within the product and chemical tanker market, As owners and operators of over 200 vessels, we offer a fully integrated shipping platform, tuning clinical management, commercial and chartering services, pool management and a large-scale bunker desk, which has been actively procuring fuel for over 1,000 vessels within our pool platform and for external ship owners.

With a robust business model, Hafnia has secured it's position as one of the formermost players in the industry. At the end of the quarter, we owned and chartered a diversified portfolio of 128 vessels. Our own vessels have an average broker valuation of $4.3 billion, giving Hafnia an estimated net added value of $3.6 billion this quarter. This represents a net asset value per share of around $7.2 or NOK 76.7.

At Hafnia, we maintain a proactive approach to market evaluation, continually seeking advantageous opportunities as part of our active management strategy. To our fleet renewal strategy, we can maintain Hafnia's fleet at a low average age of 8 years to enhance the utilization and improve its earnings.

Moving to Slide #5. Moving on, I would like to provide some key updates on Hafnia for this quarter. Firstly, I'm delighted also to announce the delivery of Hafnia Larvik marking the third LR2 LNG dual fuel newbuild out of the 4 ordered through our Vista joint venture. The final vessel will be delivered in early 2024. These dual vessels play a pivotal role in Hafnia's commitment to decarbonization, propelling us towards a more sustainable maritime future.

Moving on, and in alignment with our dedication to sustainability, we have recently concluded a sustainability-linked credit facility with commitments totaling up to $303 million. This facility was established in partnership with a syndicate of 8 banks and incorporates an annual sustainability margin adjustment mechanism.

Lastly, I'm proud to share that Hafnia is working towards a secondary listing in the U.S. Our goal is for Hafnia to reach a wider base of investors and further improve the liquidity of our shares. It's important to note that the contemplated transaction is exclusively focused on a direct listing of existing Hafnia shares without any plans to raise additional capital. Further details will be shared as they become available.

Perry, why don't you take us through our financials?

[Perry Van Echtelt, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Mikael. Following a strong second quarter, the product tanker market experienced a slight slowdown in the third quarter. Market inefficiencies arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine have gradually been alleviated as new trading lanes have been established. Despite that, we continue to deliver robust and steady earnings across all vessel segments for the quarter. We achieved a net profit of $146.9 million for the quarter, bringing our net profit in the first 9 months to $616.8 million.

Amid this high interest rate environment, we continue to optimize our balance sheet to reduce our leverage even further. Our net LTV ratio continues to decrease from the 30.1% in Q2 to 27.4% in the third quarter, mainly through strong operating cash flows and the subsequent repayment of our loans. This shows how far we have come. As at the beginning of 2022, our net LTV ratio was 64% more than double from what it is today. As a result of our LTV below 30%, our payout ratio will be further increased to 70% of net profit. This is the highest payout ratio in Hafnia history with potential future upside, should we continue to meet our financial targets.

With that, I'm happy to announce the dividend payout of $0.2032 per share or approximately NOK 2.3 for the quarter. This represents a total dividend payout for the quarter of $102.9 million and brings Hafnia's year-to-date dividends to $384.8 million, representing a payout ratio of 62.4% for the period.

Moving on to the next page. The third quarter generated a TCE income of $310.3 million, bringing our year-to-date TCE income to just over $1 billion. As a note, in the fourth quarter, we will be adopting IFRS 15 principles under which revenue for freight voyages is recognized under low to discharge basis instead of commonly used industry approach of the discharge-to-discharge basis. This would have resulted in a decrease of approximately $8 million in revenue if we had adopted it in the third quarter. But please note that this is only representing a timing difference as an effect from freight voyages in progress at the reporting date and any downward adjustment made to our freight income now would in turn contribute to a higher income in the subsequent quarter.

Our fee-generating business has also performed well, generating $7.5 million from our commercial pool in bunkering business, leading to an EBITDA for the whole company of $220.8 million. This resulted in an annualized return on equity of 27.9% for the quarter.

Our balance sheet keeps adding strength quarter-on-quarter with a cash balance of $125 million and a total liquidity of over $500 million when we add our existing credit lines. At the end of the third quarter, 77.4% of our debt was hedged at a weighted average of 1.6% base rate. While we keep working on reducing our overall debt, this hedging strategy will help to minimize financing costs and has helped to protect us against the sharp increases in interest rates. We will maintain cost discipline by monitoring our key leverage ratios and breakeven levels. This will allow our balance sheet to remain robust and capitalize on any opportunities all while safeguarding the long-term sustainability of our business.

And if we move to the next page, we move on to the operating data. For the third quarter, our TCE was based on 10,716 earning days giving us an average TCE per day of $28,954. OpEx, which encompasses vessel operational costs and technical management expenses were based on 9,566 calendar days in the quarter, leading to an average of $8,160 per day higher than the previous quarter. The rise is mainly attributed to extra crew costs due to trading demands, underestimated repairs and overalls needed due to worn-out system conditions on our chemical fleet and noncash incidental costs related to insurances.

Despite these strong markets, we must maintain a keen focus on cost efficiency, and we benchmark ourselves against our closest peers and operate the business at the most competitive levels.

And If we move to the next page, we move to earnings coverage. Despite a slight decline in rates compared to previous quarters, rates are still solid across all sectors. The outlook remains positive with the winter season approaching, which historically has been the strongest season. We are now seeing a market driven primarily by fundamentals, which remains strong as demand growth continues to exceed supply growth. As of 8 November 2023, 65% of the total earning days in the fourth quarter of '23 were covered at an average rate of $29,893 per day, for '24, 13% of the entire earning days were covered at an average of $23,842 per day on our time charters.

Moving to the next page, which shows our scenarios. So benefiting from solid fundamentals and market efficiencies seen throughout the year, our performance thus far has been quite robust. Looking ahead, oil demand remains robust, and we anticipate increased import levels from Europe and North Atlantic. We are well prepared to capitalize on this through our strategically positioned fleet and high spot market exposure.

So this page represents a comparative analysis of 3 scenarios outlining Hafnia's potential earnings for the entire year. These scenarios include consensus forecast from the equity analysts and exploration of the Q4 coverage rate projected for the remainder of the year and the third scenario based on year-to-date figures extended to the entire year. And in each of these 3 scenarios, the indications show yet another exceptionally strong year for Hafnia.

And for the next slide, Søren, why don't you take the next few pages.

[Søren Winther, executive]

Thank you, Perry. The next few pages provide commercial updates and expectations to the product tanker market. A year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent embargo on Russian products, market inefficiencies have gradually reached a maximum ton-mile effect as new trading lanes have been calibrated and eventually settled. However, strong global oil demand is still expected in the coming months, mainly attributed to China and non-OECD economies.

OECD demand growth has been muted in 2023, with consumption likely to decline with an estimated 200,000 barrels to 2024. Overall, global oil demand in 2023 is expected to increase by 2.4 million barrels per day, totaling 102 million barrels daily. In Q3, we have seen highly -- high daily loadings of clean petroleum products and chemicals. August to October levels have already exceeded levels seen last year and are comparable to those seen in December 2022.

With the winter season approaching, we can expect this upward movement to be similar to last year's, with daily loadings to further increase in the coming months. On the other hand, global oil supply is expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels a day to reach a record level of 101.8 million barrels a day in 2023. This is despite the persistent production cuts from the OPEC+ block and Saudi Arabia. With most of the increase contributed from non-OPEC and specifically the U.S., with the loan accounts for 1.3 million barrels of supply growth.

The escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at the start of October has not directly impacted oil supply. However, this must be closely monitored with Middle East accounting for a considerable portion of seaborne oil trade. For the moment, we believe there will be a limited short-term impact.

Moving on to the next slide. Entering the fourth quarter, where seasonal fundamentals appear the strongest. We are already witnessing a rise in the daily clean petroleum products and chemical loadings and longer transportation distances compared to previous years. This can be attributed primarily to Eastern refineries supplying many Atlantic consumers. Dirty petroleum product and on the other hand, have seen a slight decline in cargo volumes as they have been struggling due to OPEC+ production cards. We can expect these high ton-mile levels to continue accommodating the dislocation between refinery capacity and end users.

Moving on to next slide. Inventory levels also give a good indication of ton mile gains in the horizon. Europe clean petroleum product inventory levels remained below average due to drawdown across the year and low import levels as they continue to replace historical Russian import volumes. Heading into the winter season, it would seem unlikely for this destocking scenario to continue. This should translate into increased imports from the U.S. Gulf, Middle and Far Eastern regions. This represents a significant ton-mile increase.

Historically, freight rates increased during stock building periods as cargo volumes and transportation distances rises.

Moving on to the next slide. Moving on to the refining sector. The global refinery landscape is evolving. With global refinery expansions of approximately 4 million barrels a day expected in 2023, mostly in the Middle East and China. The 3 new refineries in the Middle East have reached 25% of max capacity. Duqm Oman refinery has surprisingly matched Saudi Arabia and Jizan refinery exports in just one month.

Oil & Water has also reached a plateau, which will increase again when Middle East refinery capacity ramps up and when unavoidable Europe inventory replenishment kicks in. Looking at market cannibalization levels of VLCCs and Suezmaxes with only a handful of new build tronics left to be delivered for the remainder of the year, and limited new buildings for next year, we do not expect a significant level of cannibalization, leading to higher ton mile surrounding the existing product tanker fleet.

Moving on to the next slide. Moving on to tonnage supply. The global product tanker fleet is getting increasingly old. When we break it down into different product segments, the number of vessels reaching above 20 years of age, will increase significantly for the next few years, and the number of newbuilds on order are not enough to replace this tonnage. The market will benefit from increased scrapping and less efficient and generally older fleet profile.

Moving on to the next slide. Focusing on non-new build orders versus the scrap candidate fleet only, 23 years of wait for LR1s and LR2s and 25 years for the smaller segments. It is evident that the accumulated fleet balance looking into 2027 carry a significant tonnage under supply. For the large tanker segments, VLCCs and Suezmaxes, a similar picture repeats as the order book is largely undersupplied.

Moving on to the next slide. We have already observed significantly de facto scrapping for aging vessels. We are seeing a substantial reduction in utilization for vessels aged in the older bracket, even if current earning levels should reflect higher employment ratios. This disparity has also become increasingly large in recent years. This is mainly due to increased downtime and longer commercial waiting periods between voyages and partly due to Russian trading tonneage ballasting longer for subsequent employment.

Even for vessels aged 15 to 19 years, we see lower utilization compared to vessels aged below 15 years of age.

Moving on to the next slide. With the aging fleet and reduced utilization, the supply outlook remains positive. Despite a pickup in ordering activities in the second quarter, we have observed moderate contracting activities in the third quarter. As of October, the product tanker book is 10.6% of the existing fleet, largely dominated by LR2s. There will be a long lead time before these deliveries materialize with most deliveries scheduled for or after 2025.

Many of these new builds will push the older part of the existing product tanker fleet into crew trading, which has a very old Aframax and Panamax fleet. On the other side of the supply equation, many vessels are approaching the natural scrapping age of 20 to 25 years. This will further bring down the supply balance of the fleet. Furthermore, when we look at the number of yachts in China, Japan, South Korea and Europe, they have dropped considerably since the levels seen in the late 2000s. Yards are already operating near total capacity, mainly dominated by containers, bulges and gas carriers.

Moving on to the next slide. Here in this slide, we are taking a step at predicting what happens if sanctions on Russian oil are lifted. We assume that post lifting of Russian sanctions Europe will return to 50% dependency on Russian refined products. Ton-mile reductions across Russian export volumes traveling shorter and EU replacement barrels from U.S., Middle and Far East reductions will result in about 100 MR equivalents worth of transport demand loss.

However, when comparing estimated transport demand losses with the current number of vessels trading under a non-Blue chip owner structures or what we call SPV companies not controlled by reputable owners. It becomes evident that an end to the sanctions is unlikely to distort the underlying supply versus demand balance, and market impact will be limited to an initial drop in market sentiment.

That is all from me. Over to you, Mikael, for the next few slides.

[Mikael Opstun Skov, executive]

Thank you for this. And we are now on Slide #23. So moving on and on top of excellent commercial performance, Hafnia also strongly focuses on ESG. As we navigate the evolving maritime landscape, Hafnia remains committed to minimizing our environmental footprint. We all often partner with industry peers, international organizations and other key stakeholders to collaboratively address our sector challenges.

Looking at some of our notable ESG efforts. This slide outlines some examples of our ESG projects. Most recently, earlier in the year, we concluded a joint venture with SOCATRA to order 4 duel-fuel methanol vessels. This represents a significant step forward in our decarbonization journey, as green methanol is an alternative marine fuel with a net-zero trajectory. We will continue looking into new avenues in our ESG agenda to address any challenges our sector faces.

Slide 24. Looking ahead, I'm optimistic that Hafnia will continue to make the proper steps in our commitment to a green-maritime sector and leveraging our strategically positioned modern fleet. While the future remains volatile, I believe that Hafnia has future reproved itself and is well equipped to face what is to come. We'll continue to build on this strong momentum to produce even greater results. This will allow us to pursue our objectives, invest in a greener future and to also allow for greater shareholder returns.

With that, I'd like to open up the call for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]

[indiscernible] can you take yourself of mute please?

[Unknown Analyst]

I'll go before Omar. Last slide on this old fleet and utilization. I guess you already pointed on some factors. Maybe you could talk a bit more about what are the primary factors affecting utilization of these older ships, given the strength of the market and how important is the -- what should we call it, the Russian impact on these numbers.

[Søren Winther, executive]

I guess this one is for me, Mikael. I think that your observation in terms of the development, we would initially have thought that ships over 20 years would have been better utilized than the data actually shows because you have seen a lot of ships going directly in ballast back into Russia and coming out again. So one would maybe assume that, that would be less waiting days. But if you take the data over time, it's important to see that over the past few years, obviously, a lot of ships have become older as we go along.

So you maybe have fewer shifts that is 20.5 years of age, but now it's 21 and 22 and 23, which adds to the equation. So when you look at the data where you have it today, it's a function of more fleet or more ships aging for certain and also a function of actual waiting time coming in and out of Russian trades for sure.

We do also experience that the older ships in the Middle East, for instance, especially for the larger ships, do take quite an amount of waiting time still albeit the market is much stronger than back in 2021, as an example. So that's probably the best explanation is more ships becoming much older. Does that answer the question?

[Unknown Analyst]

Yes. I might have another one. And I guess there's been some talk about the Middle East refinery export capacity ramping up, and it seems like it's been delayed somehow. Maybe you can talk about -- that effect on the market during this last few months and what's your expectation for the Middle East exports into next year?

[Søren Winther, executive]

Absolutely. You can say that if you start with the -- Al-Zour refinery in Kuwait, it's actually 3 refinery units in 1, whereby 2 is up and running by now. Very recently, they have had a hole in a tank system, which means that only 1 of the units is over and running for the next 10 to 15 days. After which they are back to 2 units again and by the end of the year to 3 units. And here, you're talking 600,000 barrels worth of refinery capacity and also directly destined for exports. So you're likely to see Kuwait come with a big margin of the total Middle Eastern volume.

When you go to a Jizan refinery in the Red Sea, Saudi Aramco, they have had issues with their hydrogen supply, which is basically for their hydro skimmer, meaning that at the moment, they are producing a relatively high volume of high sulfur products, rather than the high-end super high spec products that the refinery is supposed to deliver. They expect to have that enrolled by Q1 next year and producing about 400,000 barrels worth of export volume.

The interesting one is Duqm in Oman, primarily led by OQ. And they have actually reached a production volume much faster than any of the other refineries in a super short time span. And they are adding another unit to the refinery, bringing them to about 300 million, 350 million barrels worth of exports. So you can say the Middle East, if there ever was a fear that Europe not receiving enough oil from -- receiving oil from Russia and where is the replacement barrel going to come from? Then it's quite certain that you will actually have the capacity in the Middle East, combined with China to cover the shortfall.

We have for long refinery turnarounds in existing refineries in India and also in Saudi Arabia at the moment, which is due to the units they are actually overhauling at the moment, which is due to come back in early December. And we have seen through November till now a lower export volume than expected, which is then again expected to come back in December and come back big time because we obviously need the oil [ vast assurance ] for balance of Q4 into Q1.

[Operator]

Okay. So Omar, can I ask you to take yourself off mute?

[Omar Nokta, analyst]

Sure. Thank you. Hi, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for the detailed update. Just had a couple of questions. It was good to get [Frotos] questions on the macro, which were very helpful. I wanted to ask maybe a bit more on [ half neo ] specifically and maybe just an easy, simple one, just on the U.S. listing. It's something obviously you've been considering for some time, you've talked about, I guess, just in terms of timing, do you have a sense of -- what that would look like? Is that a first half of next year event? Or when do you think that can come to fruition?

[Perry Van Echtelt, executive]

Omar, Perry here. As said, we're working towards that listing. It is quite a bit of time to get the company ready, get the filing in. So an exact timing is difficult to give at the moment, but we're working as fast as possible towards that.

[Omar Nokta, analyst]

And then maybe just kind of thinking about -- I think you mentioned early on in the -- I think, Mikael, in the opening comments that there would be no change obviously in coming to the U.S. market in terms of strategy. But I did want to ask about the dividend policy going forward. I know it's only been a year or so since you established the payout with the formal thresholds based off of LTV. You've gotten to sub-30% here this quarter, triggering a 70% payout. It looks like you could probably get -- you're on pace at least to get to below 20% in a few quarters' time, which will then trigger you up to the 80% payout. Any thoughts on if you get to that point on whether you would go beyond an 80% payout in the future? Do you envision Hafnia maybe going to 100% at some point? Or do you prefer and really like of keeping a cap at 80%?

[Mikael Opstun Skov, executive]

Thanks, Omar. No. So to be honest, we haven't really discussed what will happen after that. So I think this is just a conversation we need to have with the board once we get to that level, which, as you say, most likely will happen at some point, maybe in the next year. But we haven't discussed it and agreed on anything on it, but fundamentally, our belief is that continuing to pay down debt at the same time as paying our dividend is a good combination. And there's nothing that would indicate that we would stop or do things differently unless things come up in terms of the investment side where there was accretive deals to be done, right, that would need some sort of investment. But at the moment, the strategy will continue as we have announced, and that goes for the dividend policy as well.

[Operator]

I think we have another question from Osama 76.

Hello? Osama, it seems like we have some difficulty hearing you. Could you maybe put your question into the chat function.

Okay. So while Osama is putting his question into the chat function, I will take one question from the chat function, which is from Christopher Bath -- sorry, the question reads as -- how should we think about the refinery margins, which have trended lower recently? How is the dynamic between crack spreads and rates now versus previously?

So Søren, I believe you can take this question.

[Søren Winther, executive]

Yes, I'll take that and at least give it a step. It's true that refinery margins has come up or come down over the past month or so. It has been a very volatile refinery margin environment for the entire year. I'm not sure how much to put into the refinery margins. There's various elements to this. If you look at the Middle East, for instance, the barrels coming out in Saudi Arabia and in from KBC, in Kuwait, also from Reliance in India, for instance, they have a very different price structure in their purchase of crude oil to process.

So one has to be a little bit careful when we look at the final margins. But no doubt that we have seen less exports, especially from the Middle East being the center of the world and driving factor, at least for the bigger ships. And it does have an effect. I would though expect that with the current inventories as they look west of Suez, and with the limited refinery capacity that we do have on -- in the western part of the world, that you're going to see a rebound in refinery margins and typically latest by the early part of Q4 or into the latter part of Q4 and the early part of Q1.

In terms of rate, you have seen the market drop to a certain extent over the past few weeks, but also a large expectancy on supply versus demand dynamics to change in the next coming weeks into December. And it's not on normal that you only have a spike in rates when you come to December. Even though Q4 is typically rated as one of the stronger quarters. It's typically for the latter part of the quarter, you see the bounce in freight rates. Freight rates have by no means been meager though. I mean we are talking a slight dip in rates, and we have seen that various times over the year.

Does that answer the question enough?

[Operator]

I think if there are any further comments, please post them in the chat. We have one, Søren also for you, for Osama 76.

Regarding the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, what will be the outlook for the tanker market in general and for Hafnia if tensions escalated more.

[Søren Winther, executive]

Yes. It's true that the [ gas ] conflict that we have seen from the early part of this month is obviously very much up in the media. However, in terms of export volumes, that region doesn't really have a lot to do with the tanker sector in general. You have very few export barrels, for instance, out of Israel. It's hard to anticipate what's going to happen if Saudi Arabia, one of the surrounding countries really get involved in this conflict. And how that's going to affect the entire Middle Eastern region. I would have thought though that, that is an unlikely scenario, and for now, normal trading in the Middle East, which is really the region we are talking about.

And a major part of the trading volume is obviously still ongoing, and there's no issues even in the Red Sea where we also trade our own ships. So I would have thought that the likelihood of major impact to the tanker sector in general is unlikely, but obviously impossible to say.

[Operator]

Thank you Søren. We have another question from [ Stein. ]

Thinking of the value and the life of productivity for the individual shipping segments? Are there any considerations to short the time of depreciation for LR1, LR2 and MR vessels?

[Mikael Opstun Skov, executive]

Yes. So no, I mean I think as far as we're concerned for the current fleet, as we have also illustrated in the presentation today, we actually believe that there would be demand for more ships than what is actually available currently in the market and amongst the supply overall. So as far as we are concerned, we think that most owners will actually try to extend the life time of the vessels of the existing fleet to make sure that they can trade as long as possible because there will be a demand for them.

I think when it comes to new builds, which we are not looking at unless there are long-term contracts attached to them, then I think it's a different story. And I would expect that if people buy new builds for delivering 26, 27 to use a 25-year depreciation, probably be debatable. But that's just our view here. As I said, it's not something that we are strategically focused on at the moment. But I would certainly expect that people would consider to reduce that depreciation time going for newbuild delivery in '26, '27.

[Operator]

I don't see any further questions in the Q&A. I'll quickly check the raised hand function. If there's any more. I don't see any.

Okay. Sorry, we have now another question in the Q&A from anonymous.

Would Hafnia consider to expand their fleet acquiring a listed product tanker company that trades at a discount of their net asset value. I believe Mikael that's for you.

[Mikael Opstun Skov, executive]

Yes. so as far as we are concerned, as we mentioned a bit earlier, so we are very positive on the product amount going forward. So we would be looking at further consolidation, if we find assets that could have a strategic fit and at the same time, prefer to renew our current fee dates. So as far as strategic initiatives are concerned, definitely, yes, we will be looking and still looking to see if there are attractive things that we can consolidate. What we are not so interested in is going out and buy individual assets for cash.

So we would want to be looking at consolidation rather than going out and buy assets and spend cash. That's kind of the strategic focus at the moment.

[Operator]

Thank you, Mikael. We have a question, which would be for Søren, from Lloyd Jagai.

Which impact with an enforcement of U.S. sanctions have on product trade?

[Søren Winther, executive]

I believe here we are talking about the media mentioned OPEC letter that has been sent to allegedly 30 owners around the world for transporting non-price cap oil or at least not documented price cap oil. You can say that the impact that we're already seeing now in the Middle East, you have seen charters being able to take ships with the Russian cargo history, whether it's with a price cap documentation or not. But over this past week, actually, since Monday, really, we are seeing a reduced appetite in taking such tonnage at least for now. I can't judge whether or not that's a persistent factor for the market.

But when you minimize the supply overall, you maximize the earnings, of course, and the competition in the general market. It's an enforcement, a strong enforcement to this would mean quite a number of ships potentially disappearing out of the competing factor for a company like Hafnia, and can only mean positive things for TCE going forward.

[Operator]

Okay. Great. I don't see any other questions in the chat, neither in the raise-hand function. So if that's all for today, we have come to the end of today's presentation. Thank you for attending Hafnia's Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Presentation. More information on Hafnia and this presentation will be available online at www.hafniabw.com. Goodbye.