Gram Car Carriers ASA

OSE:GCC

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Georg Whist, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to today's presentation on Gram Car Carriers Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 results. My name is Georg Whist, and I'm the CEO of Gram Car Carriers. Joining me today from Singapore is our CFO, Gunnar Koloen. Today, we'll take you through an update on our Q4 and full year performance and recent market and corporate developments.

We are pleased to see the continued impact of new charter contracts at higher day rates reflected in revenue and earnings growth and increased returns to our shareholders. We're making good progress on execution of our strategy. I would like to share some of those highlights with you today.

Gram Car Carriers is the world's third largest car carrier tonnage provider. We listed on Euronext growth a year ago with a clear strategy of capturing the upside in the car carrier market and pay dividends. We also said we plan to up list to Oslo Børs main market during the year.

We have delivered completing up listing in mid-December and today announcing our fourth consecutive quarterly dividend distribution. Our Q4 dividend of $0.169 per share is up from $0.11 for Q3 and in line with our policy. For the full year, the distribution amounts to $11.9 million in total.

We see daily earnings increase for all our vessel sizes in Q4. We signed new contracts successfully capturing the strong market, and we only now have 10% open days for 2023, 31% for 2024 and 34% for 2025. The market outlook remains positive with continued high charter rates and demand for longer contract durations.

We see strong end user demand for cars with market expected to be back at pre-COVID levels now in 2024. We see a continued shortage of vessels over the next few years, and charter rates are at the moment at historic high levels.

Our Q4 revenue was $38.3 million, up from $31.5 million in Q3. Our EBITDA was $23 million, up from $18.8 million in Q3. This reflects improved time charter earnings across all segments. Higher interest rate, general inflation and certain costs related to our Ukrainian crew has led to increased time charter equivalent breakeven rates.

Net income was $9.9 million, up from $6.5 million in Q3, of which we propose to return 50% to our shareholders. We have booked new contracts worth $326 million in Q4 and our revenue backlog now increased and stands at $856 million at the end of 2022.

We are delivering on our clear dividend policy and we proposed a Q4 dividend of $0.169 per share, up 54% from Q3. The EGM on the 2nd of March will have to finally approve the dividends. Total distribution for 2022 will then amount to $0.408 per share.

We expect earnings and dividends to continue to increase going forward. The Board of Directors will evaluate the dividend policy ahead of the Annual General Meeting in May this year.

Gram Car Carriers, we're a strong industry name with more than 40 years experience from the car carrier industry. We have extensive experience from chartering vessels to all major global operators and key regional operators worldwide.

You see some of the logos of our customers on the screen. Our headquarters is here in Oslo. And we also, together with our office in Singapore, manage a modern fleet of car carriers. We listed on Oslo Børs main market in December last year.

The car industry is one of the world's largest industries, and we are an integral part of their logistics chain. Gram Car Carriers is an important part of the value chain, we charter out our vessels with the operators who, in turn, sits on volume contracts with the manufacturers. We are a perfect fit and work very well with the operators to make a great service to the end users.

If you take an example like Glovis, they operate about 90 ships. They own only 1/3 of that, so they charter at any given time, 2/3 of their needs from the tonnage providers. NYK, K Line, MOL own -- operate about 100 ships each. They own about 2/3 of their tonnage and chartering 1/3 from the tonnage providers. Wallenius Wilhelmsen, on the other hand, own most of their tonnage and charter in only about 10%.

Gram Car Carriers, we are a preferred partner who deliver a consistently high-quality service, which meet all stringent quality measures set by the car manufacturers.

We have 3 main types of vessels. We have the distribution vessels serving in regional markets like Northern Europe and the Caribbean. We have the midsized vessels, serving North-South trade lanes and trade intra continents. We have our Panamax vessels, serving East-West trade lanes, crossing the canals and major oceans.

We also operate on commercial management for new buildings for global auto carriers and one for an NRP led KS. In Q2, we acquired the mid-size vessel in Paglia from our largest owner in a transaction that is accretive to earnings and dividends.

Now over to you Gunnar for an update on operational and finance.

[Gunnar Koloen, executive]

Thank you, Georg. The positive market momentum has continued throughout 2022 and so far into this year. The average charter rate for the fleet was $22,700 in Q4, up another $2,500 from Q3. The increase is a function of higher day rates of all vessel types but with the Panamax vessel, Viking Adventure being the main contributor.

We expect rates to continue to improve with Panamax earnings increasing further with Viking Destiny rolling over on a new charter towards the end of Q1 and Viking Bravery in Q3. The last Panamax, Viking Queen is expected only to roll over on a new contract towards the end of the year. We also expect significant improvement in the earnings from the distribution vessels as they roll off their existing charters.

We touched on the income recognition for contract extensions and contracts with staggered TC rates in the Q3 reporting and you may refer to Page 7 and 8 in our Q4 interim report for further details on this. All charter revenue is recognized on a straight-line basis, irrespective of payment structure.

Vessel operating expenses are higher in Q4, partly due to increased crew change activity, higher airfares and increased technical activities towards the end of the year. This is as expected, following lower activity during the first half of the year. We expect to see an increase in vessel operating expenses in 2023 compared to 2022.

An estimate running expenses at around $6,000 and $7,000 for the respective categories, distribution, midsize and Panamax. Average cash breakeven rate has come up to around $17,300 per day, mainly due to an increase in operating expenses going into 2023 and also higher interest rates.

The fleet was fully operational during Q4, with the exception of Viking Emerald, which completed its second dry docking in the beginning of Q4 and Viking Bravery, which went through its first dry docking during Q4.

The Viking Bravery docking was completed in 21 days as planned as well as the extended dry docking for the viking Emerald was covered by loss of higher insurance and had no significant impact on revenue.

Let's then move to the contract overview. We had continued strong fixing activity in Q4 with Viking Destiny, Hoegh Caribia and Viking Bravery being fixed. In addition, we added further backlog with the acquisition of Paglia. This left our backlog at $856 million at the year-end.

We now only have 10% open revenue days in 2023 and also have very good visibility on 2024 and '25. The open positions in 2023 include 4 distribution vessels and the Panamax, Viking Queen at the end of '22. In 2024, we only have one open position, which is the Viking Amber.

We experienced strong demand for our open positions and expect to announce further contracts reflecting the strong market fundamentals in the coming weeks and months. Having said that, news flow will naturally be less frequent now with the long duration backlog that we have built.

Revenue backlog, as I said, is at $856 million at the end of the year. This represents an increase of $290 million or 52% compared to Q3. The graph to the right shows the backlog split on year of expected revenue recognition and demonstrates how we have very good visibility all the way into 2027 and even 2028.

Revenue and earnings for the quarter reflect strong operations and good cost control. We acquired the Paglia in November for $49 million, of which $39 million was settled in cash and funded through accordion feature under existing facility debt whereas the remaining part was settled by way of issuance, new shares.

The Paglia is on charter until May 2028 at the charter rate of $33,300 per day, giving us an additional $67 million in additional backlog and is accretive on earnings per share and dividend per share. Q4 net income ended up at $9.9 million against $6.5 million in the previous quarter.

Book equity is stable at 40% at the end of the year. As alluded to earlier, the Board has proposed to pay 50% of net income as dividend for Q4. And with the expectations of increased earnings in coming quarters, we also expect to see quarterly earnings increase further.

With that, I hand it back to Georg.

[Georg Whist, executive]

Thank you, Gunnar. We continue to see a steady improvement in the charter rates at record levels. 180 vessels owned by the tonnage providers, there's only one open for recontracting here in Q1 this year.

Open positions in 2023 for recontracting is rapidly decreasing. At the moment, there's only 28 vessels opened this year. This compares to the whole year of 2022 when there was 65 fixtures done and more than 100, which is the norm pre-COVID. Conclusion, market is tight.

Expectation for global auto sales have been stable since the end of Q2 despite increased interest rates and fear of recession. Economic uncertainty, lower growth expectations, rising interest rates, inflation, weaker consumer confidence in the U.S. and Europe and continued war in Ukraine are all worrying signals.

Despite this, the forecast remained flat, although at a historic somewhat lower level. New car sales expected to be back at pre-COVID levels in 2024. Auto manufacturers continue to prioritize their export models. U.S. inventories of import brands remain near record lows at less than 20 days of inventory. We see the same trend in Europe and Asia.

China's export continued to grow and record high and heavy volume gives a tight market for car carriers. To sum it up, low inventories, continued strong demand outlook, combined with inventory rebuild set us up for a prolonged firm market.

China's strong export continues with China as the second largest exporters of car in the world. 3.25 million Chinese vehicles were shipped in 2022. This is up 57% year-on-year according to Chinese customs data. Q4 exports alone amounted to 1.1 million vehicles. Now 29% of all cars export from China in 2022 were electric vehicles.

We see EV sales growing exponentially, and we are well underway to meet forecast prediction by 50% EV shares of all vehicle sales by 2030. Some are now even revising up their forecasts like EEA to 60% EV share.

China's expanding its position as a global EV powerhouse will lead to greater ton-mile demand. China is the largest car market in the world with 25 million cars sold every year. They clearly have some key advantages.

They have modern production facilities, modern port infrastructure, a well-established auto parts supply chain, including EV battery production. They have a large skilled and cost-efficient workforce.

A lot of the cars coming out of China is, of course, new and exciting Chinese brands, but also a high number of what we perceive as Western brands like Tesla, Volvo Polestar, BMW iX3 are all being produced in China and shipped to world markets.

High and heavy demand remained strong with high volumes and strong backlog. All the main sectors, agriculture, mining and construction are experiencing high demand. This is high paying cargo, which lifts demand for car carriers across the board.

We see continued favorable supply side. Net fleet growth has been negative since 2014. Only 4 new buildings were delivered last year. The order book has increased in response to the strong market fundamentals and is above historic average.

Still more vessels are needed to meet the growing demand and replacement requirements. The age profile of the fleet also indicates a substantial recycling potential.

There is a strong trend towards longer duration for new contracts, as you can see on this chart. In Q4, new time charters were for 3 years or longer, operators are fixing longer durations to cover their own contracts and the expectations communicated by the car manufacturers.

The short-term activity we have seen during the second half has been a significant premium. This reflects the strong market we are experiencing despite global challenges and macroeconomic headwinds.

Gram Car Carriers, we see it as a unique investment opportunity in a leading PCT car carrier tonnage provider, highly attractive market fundamentals supporting a long-term up cycle. We are successfully capturing the strong market and we now have 10% open this year, 31% next year and 34% for 2025.

Steadily improving earnings with the fleet rolling over now on new contracts with further upside potential for our open positions. We are delivering on our commitment to distribute minimum 50% of earnings per share to quarterly dividends.

Thanks for listening, and we are now ready for our Q&A session.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Thank you very much for the presentation, Georg and Gunnar. My name is August and I work here in Equity Research at the Pareto Securities and I'll be moderating this Q&A session. [Operator Instructions]

So we've had a few already. I think we can start with this one. Looking at the growing order book, it's primarily large deep sea carriers. Do you expect an uptick in the ordering of midsize and distribution size vessels? And how do you assess the outlook for the smaller vessels?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes, that's a good question. That's right. We've only seen really predominantly the operators ordering vessels out of the 132 ships in the order book, 86 has been taken by the operators and then 43, 44 has been taken by the tonnage providers. And it's predominantly 7,000 and some of the larger sizes in 8,500 to 9,000.

I think the ordering has been somewhat driven by the increase we see from China, the export out of China. And of course, that is the need necessity there is predominantly in the larger sizes. We've also seen a migration from Europe where there was a number of midsized ships trading into Europe.

This has now moved to more deep-sea trades both driven by the necessity but also driven to some extent by the CII and the regulation coming in because those larger ships need longer trade lanes and fewer ports for them to trade in an efficient manner.

So which -- I mean, we should expect to see some more midsize and some distribution ships being ordered. It hasn't happened yet. And that is good for us. I think -- we think we will try to -- we have a few of them open on the distribution side, and we are excited about that segment.

It -- as we have guided and talked about with our investors before, this is later in the cycle, and we have definitely seen that cycle starting to move. So with the last fixing of Hoegh Caribia, $22,000 per day was up from [ 12 ] and you should expect news flow from us on the 2 next open positions over the next couple of weeks, maybe a month.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes. Sounds good. And then there's another one on the order book. There's been some focus on order book lately. When will this kick in on your revenue?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes. So for -- I mean, we -- I mean, in Gram Car Carriers, we don't have any new buildings, but our sister company, which we commercially manage we have. So we'll get some revenue through those fees we make from managing those.

Pre -- I mean, our order book now is very firm for the next 4 to 5 years. So it's an extremely visible, predictable cash flow. So we don't really see that we are exposed to the new building market until we're up for contract renewal in 2027, '28. So it's quite far out.

And I think I find it quite challenging to forecast where the world is in 5 years from now. So we have a solid base. We're not really that exposed to new buildings in Gram Car Carriers.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes, sounds good. And then there's a few on sort of capital allocation and dividends. I guess we can take them sort of in the correct order here. Where are you with the conversations to amend covenants with banks to be able to increase the payout ratio?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes. So there's 2 things here. The banks, obviously, or our creditors, we agreed a payout ratio when we had a contract revenue backlog of $150 million. Now it's $856 million. So it's obviously a very different discussion.

We have started that discussion. I don't foresee any issues by changing it. That's the clear message when we speak to our creditors. But of course, this is very timely to have that discussion. And so I don't foresee any challenges with our creditors.

We have today informed you that we are discussing with our Board that we will be changing our dividend policy. And we -- and the Board will present that to the Annual General Meeting in May, which means that we will be talking to you about this when we present our Q1 numbers in April.

[August Klemp, analyst]

And then there's 2 questions there. I think we can kind of merge together. One is what's your general view on capital allocation. And then kind of as a follow-up, if buybacks of your own shares is on the agenda when shares are trading below NAV?

[Georg Whist, executive]

I think it's -- I'll take the last question first about buybacks versus dividends. I think in a perfect world with a very liquid stock, I think then, of course, the textbook example is you should be buying back stock. I think we are only now 1 year into our life as Oslo Børs listed company, and we're still building up our shareholder base.

So I think the challenge will be if we start buying back, we'll probably deplete some of that liquidity, which is, again, detrimental to share performance. So it's a long answer to the question, but it's -- the answer is that it's too early.

I think we will be having those considerations once we are more mature, we have a wider investor base, then that is more of an appropriate question. Right now, we will be skimming and making much thinner liquidity, which is counterproductive to the stock.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes.

[Georg Whist, executive]

Then the first question, sorry.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes, that was just your general view on capital allocation, you've kind of touched upon it, but if you want to add something?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes. But how we will allocate our capital going forward. I think we -- as we already said, we did the Paglia acquisition in Q4. We are very disciplined. We will only be buying vessels if they are accretive to earnings per share or worst case, neutral to earnings per share, and we will not use shareholder's and the company's cash to do a transaction which are not earnings accretive.

So very disciplined. We look at a lot of deals, but they have to make sense. We work within those stringent parameters. If it's outside, we pass on transactions.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes. Sounds good. Then there is a question so far, the last one. So if there's anything else, please write your questions in the chat box. But here is, how do you manage conflict of interest between chartering your own ships versus those you manage, including the new builds?

[Georg Whist, executive]

It's a very -- it's an excellent question, and it has proven to be quite theoretical because they're not really open at the same time. We have been managing ships for third parties for 7, 8 years, and we have been dealing with that diligently. It is there.

We are very focused on that there could be issues. We haven't had issues of that in the past. And when I see the contract renewal coming open, I don't really see that we will have a conflict of interest.

I mean our chartering people, they look at -- they have 1 fleet. They don't really look at who are the owners behind, so they treat it and optimize it that way. So we're dealing with it, and it's -- and it's in hand as far as I can tell.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Sounds good. Then a bit of a sort of a specific question here. Maybe for Gunnar, I'll let you decide. But how many days of Paglia earnings were included in Q4 revenue?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes. I think we'll pass that to you, Gunnar. Do you have that at hand? How many days?

[Gunnar Koloen, executive]

The Paglia, so the acquisition was effective on the 29th of November. So I think it was 33 days of earnings in Q4.

[Georg Whist, executive]

Okay. 33 days.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes. Sounds good. Then as far as I can see, there are no more questions here. We'll maybe give people a few more seconds if there are any final ones. I can't see any. So maybe one for me there.

You mentioned that you are looking at a lot of deals, and you will only do those that makes sense. So presumably, there's quite a lot out there that doesn't make sense, probably maybe due to prices having moved too much or...

[Georg Whist, executive]

A lot will be an exaggeration, but we are constantly out there looking at opportunities and we have had several engagements. And we -- as we said, and that's why we use Paglia as a good example, that makes sense, that's accretive to earnings per share. And we will only engage in transactions, which will continue to do so.

So there are a number of transactions and let's see. But again, we are a dividend yield company. We are extremely focused on staying on that path and we'll only do transactions that are accretive to that story.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Yes. sounds good. And we did have a few sneaking in here towards the end. Reported Panamax earnings look high, given contracts haven't rolled over to higher rates yet. Is that because you are already averaging a long-term contract out onto -- or into sorry, Q4 '22 rates?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Yes. So we spent some time on that also in today's presentation. We have -- some of the contracts we have done are with staggered rates, so they start at a higher rate and then they go down. And also, we have one contract -- or several contracts where we agreed a retrospect start rate.

So we have actually collected a lot of money earlier. That will only affect our cash flow, but IFRS reconciliation needs to book it on the average rate. So I know you, Gunnar, have spent a bit of time with the analysts and also in today's presentation explaining that point. I don't know if you have something to add.

[Gunnar Koloen, executive]

Yes. So it's the effective date of when the extension is agreed, then you average out the rate from that point. So it's a blended rate, you can say. We've spand this out on Page 7 and 8 in the report to try and -- so it's fully transparent after income recognition.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Sounds good. And then so far, the last one again. What do you project to be the average rate per day for 2023 on your fleet and for 2024?

[Georg Whist, executive]

Do you have that number at hand, Gunnar? I don't have that at hand. I think we will -- we only can -- we only have numbers for the booked number of -- the booked contracts, right? I mean we don't really guide on where we will end up with the open positions. But do you have those numbers at hand, Gunnar, the average rates of contracts booked for the rest of this year or next year?

[Gunnar Koloen, executive]

I don't have that on top of my head, unfortunately.

[Georg Whist, executive]

So any investor who wants that number, analyst, please shoot us an e-mail, and we can get you that number.

[August Klemp, analyst]

Sounds good. Then I think we'll run things off there. No further questions. So if you have any final words to say.

[Georg Whist, executive]

No, I think we are at a 1-year anniversary. And I think, as I said earlier, we had delivered quarterly dividends on an increasing path and have up listed to the main board of Oslo Børs main market. So I think we're sticking to our story. We're sticking to our plans and we are returning capital to shareholders.

And we will stay on that path and be very disciplined. So, thanks everyone, for listening. And if you have follow-up questions, please reach out to Gunnar or Mas in IR or myself and we'll fill you in. [indiscernible] in this morning.