Elmera Group ASA

OSE:ELMRA

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q2

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Good morning. and very welcome to our second quarter presentation 2024. My name is Rolf Barmen and I'm head of the Elmera Group. Our CFO, Henning Nordgulen is also, as usual, with me today, and he will go through the financials.

After he has finished his section, I will come back to give you an update -- our outlook session. And Morten Opdal, our Head of Investor Relations, is also with us here this morning, and he will take questions during the presentation and address them to handing in me in our Q&A session.

But first of all, the second quarter was really solid with net revenue growth year-on-year as well as a slight improvement in EBIT adjusted compared to second quarter last year. Our operating expenses came in higher than expected, driven by the bankruptcy of the Swedish production company, International Automotive Components Group, Sweden in the Nordic segment.

The bankruptcy resulted in a historically higher loss of NOK 30 million for the group. And as Henning will come back to in his part of the presentation. The customers general payment behavior remains good with very high payment rates, but the bankruptcy rate in Sweden has been increasing lately and affected us negatively this quarter.

I also want to highlight that the group has entered into a term sheet for the refinancing of existing credit and guarantee facilities. The new facilities agreement to be provided by DNB Bank as an agent of a syndicate consisting of 4 banks will support the group's revised sourcing model and is expected to be executed during next month. And we are now well positioned to handle the necessary working capital needs in the new structure.

The migration of the group's IT structure to common or a Pan-Nordic Elmera platform is also progressing as planned. And Gudbrandsdal Energi Brand is the first in line before Nordic Green Energy will be migrated during first half of 2025.

The common Elmera platform will enable improved value proposition and more streamlined processes in the future.

So over to the segments. Warm temperatures this quarter, particularly in May, contributed to reduced electricity consumption compared to second quarter 2023. Despite this reduced consumption, the operating profit increased in 3 out of the group's 4 reporting segments.

In the consumer segment, the significant year-on-year improvement in EBIT adjusted was driven by cost reduction, and we have decreased the risk in the portfolio through the Phase-out of variable contracts. Which constituted 5% at quarter-end compared to 7% a year ago.

Number of deliveries decreased by 6,000 quarter-on-quarter, driven by adjustments in terms and prices that further contributed to reduced risk, particularly for the solar producing customers. And this improves robustness in the segment.

In the business segment, the improvement in operating profit was driven by net revenue growth through margin increase. The segment continues its strong and stable performance also when it comes to number of deliveries, now amounting to 128,000. The new growth initiatives also increased profitability year-on-year and performs in line with our guidance.

The Nordic segment's financial result is obviously negatively affected by the bankruptcy that I mentioned. On a more positive note, this was the first quarter with customer growth since the phase of strategy of legacy fixed price contracts. Since we initiated the Phase-out process back in 2022. We have increased our internal sales capacity significantly, and we are well positioned for further growth in this segment.

So that's all for me for now. Henning, the floor is yours.

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Thank you, Rolf, and good morning to all. The group delivered a solid financial performance in the second quarter with significant improvement in EBIT adjusted in 3 out of 4 segments and despite reduced consumptions in our markets. Net revenue adjusted ended at NOK 389 million compared to NOK 376 million in the second quarter of 2023. EBIT adjusted was NOK 106.4 million compared to NOK 105.5 million in Q2 of last year.

Successful product management and cost improvements drove EBIT increases in the Consumer and Business segments, but this was offset by the loss in the Nordic segment.

Operating expenses were NOK 282 million compared to NOK 270 million in the second quarter of 2023. The underlying level is in line with the guidance of a flat nominal cost development in 2024. But in isolation, the IAC loss had a negative impact in this quarter.

The cash spend on external sales commissions was stable year-on-year at NOK 37 million and marginally down quarter-on-quarter. That is, we maintain an annualized spending level of around NOK 140 million. The net working capital was reduced by NOK 345 million year-on-year, and the free cash flow in the quarter was strong.

Then turning to market development. And starting on the left-hand side, we experienced lower average prices in the second quarter compared to Q2 of last year. Hourly prices have been volatile, influenced by renewables, specifically solar power in the European continent.

To the right, you can see the monthly supply changes in Norway, the supply changes have leveled out during the second quarter and are now comparable to the level in Q2 of 2023.

Then over to the segments. In the Consumer segment, we experienced strong margins in the quarter, and we were able to replicate the net revenue from Q2 of 2023, despite the decline in the volumes and deliveries as well as a reduction in the share of variable contracts.

The positive last 12 months trend in volumes sold leveled out this quarter due to the higher than last year temperatures. The number of deliveries were down year-on-year and Q-on-Q following price adjustments. We also implemented a risk mitigating change in the terms of the product Solkonto, which functions as a virtual battery for solar energy producing customers.

In isolation, we lost close to 4,000 customers in the quarter due to this necessary change. Operating expenses were down by NOK 20 million year-on-year, leading to an increase in EBIT adjusted from NOK 30 million to NOK 50 million.

The number of deliveries in the business segment was stable year-on-year. Volume decreased by 5% due to higher temperatures compared to the second quarter of 2023, but has increased by 4% over the last 12 months. With active product management, core margins in the segment increased, resulting in an increase in net revenue of NOK 8 million year-on-year. As operating expenses were stable at NOK 61 million, EBIT adjusted also increased by NOK 8 million year-on-year.

In the Nordic segment, the number of deliveries grew by a net 500 deliveries quarter-on-quarter. And as Rolf said, this was the first quarter with customer growth since we started the Phase-out of legacy fixed price contracts with volume and profile risk. Still the Phase-out strategy and the mild weather resulted in a volume reduction of 24% year-on-year.

The Nordic financials this quarter were significantly influenced by the IAC bankruptcy. IAC has been a well-performing customer since 2013. The bankruptcy was unexpected. And a single loss of this magnitude has not occurred in the group for over 10 years. Following a portfolio review, we also made a minor adjustment to the loss provisions in the quarter due to changes in mark-to-market valuation of customer hedges.

Net revenue adjusted decreased by NOK 8 million year-on-year. Market conditions were soft in the second quarter this year, while we had tailwind from a favorable market both in the second quarter of last year and in the first quarter of this year.

Operating expenses increased in the quarter, partly because we are moving from less external to more internal sales capacity but also due to the loss in the quarter.

Then on the new growth initiatives. Where the volumes sold in the Alliance concept decreased by 10% compared to Q2 of 2023, also here driven by the mild weather.

We had a stable development in mobile subscribers in the quarter, and as you can see from the orange line in the chart, the development in the last 12 months net revenue and EBIT are both strong, primarily driven by the migration of mobile to Telia's network. Overall, our subsidiaries have performed well in the quarter and according to plan.

Then over to working capital. The net working capital at quarter end was in line with seasonal levels and came down to NOK 205 million due to the decrease in elspot prices and lower volumes. On the right-hand side, net interest-bearing debt decreased by NOK 532 million due to the working capital reduction quarter-on-quarter.

The cash generation in the quarter was strong. EBITDA adjusted was NOK 170 million. CapEx came in at NOK 22 million and payments to obtain new contracts NOK 37 million. This resulted in a cash EBIT adjusted in the quarter of NOK 111 million.

Then a few comments on credit risk development. The credit and collection processes in Elmera Group are well established, and our objective is to balance profitable growth and credit risk. The cost of risk and the level of provisions will fluctuate to some degree from quarter-to-quarter but it has been quite stable over time.

The credit metrics we monitor continue to be strong. Here, illustrated by the B2B invoice settlements within 30 days over the last 5 quarters in the Norway and Nordic areas, respectively. There is no doubt that there are still concerns about macro development with prevailing higher interest rates and inflation. This puts pressure on the household economies and will likely influence businesses over time. But so far, our share of bankruptcies have been moderate and stable. Consequently, we considered the provision of NOK 61 million per quarter end to be adequate.

As discussed in previous quarter and in our Capital Markets Day in June, we have had an ongoing process concerning a new long-term agreement with Statkraft and correspondingly to secure new and increased financing to facilitate the opportunities, the Statkraft agreement gives us for increasing net revenue. The process is complete, and we entered into a committed term sheet with DNB on the 8 of July.

As this was beyond the Q2 cutoff date and with less than 12 months duration of the current financing outstanding, the remaining NOK 586 million long-term debt technically changed classification to short-term debt in the quarter. This will, of course, be reclassified back to long-term debt in our Q3 reports.

Also, as indicated in the CMD, finance expenses have widened since we raised the current financing in 2020. We are satisfied that we have secured over NOK 3 billion in increased credit limits at attractive pricing. We are also pleased with the support we have experienced in the process from DNB and the syndicate, including Danske Bank, Swedbank and also Sparebanken Invest as a new member of the banking group. We will give a complete disclosure on final terms and conditions in our Q3 report.

And finally, we introduced this disclosure last quarter in order to increase transparency and make it easier to estimate the development in net financing costs. And starting from the bottom of the chart, the interest expenses related to long-term debt with stable interest levels is stable at NOK 15 million.

Interest expense sales relates to power purchase from Statkraft and correlates with volume sold and LPT prices. With lower price levels and reduced volumes, the expense is reduced both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Other net finance will fluctuate from quarter-to-quarter, given seasonality and elspot price levels and will typically be 0 in the summer quarters.

So to summarize, we are satisfied with the operating and financial performance in the second quarter, and I then give the floor back to Rolf.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Thank you very much, Henning. We held our Capital Markets Day in June where we provided an in-depth overview of strategic considerations and ambitions. For those interested in a more comprehensive review, I recommend watching the CMD webcast. However, I would like to summarize our financial targets and key investment highlights that we presented there. .

For the next 2 years, we target both in net revenue in all of our segments and a stable OpEx adjusted in line with 2023, 2024 and 2025. When it comes to EBIT adjusted, our target is between NOK 550 million and NOK 600 million with a positive trend throughout the period.

Our dividend policy remains unchanged with a payout ratio of 80%. You probably recognize our key investment highlights from the Capital Markets Day.

So I'll keep this quite brief. Our performance is consistently very good. We are well positioned to meet the future. We have growth ambitions as well as growth ability, both organically and through M&A. We have strong brands, supported by operational excellence through cross-border IT systems, and we have an attractive financial profile that we strongly believe will continue to provide value for our shareholders in the future.

So that's all for me. Now, I would like to invite Henning to the floor again, and then we'll start the Q&A session. Morten, do you have any incoming questions for us?

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

We have some questions Rolf. And we can start off with a question on the Nordic segment. You had a loss in the Nordic segment this quarter. What is the risk going forward? Do you still believe in the growth that you described on the Capital Markets Day?

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

I can take the last part. We -- of course, we still believe in the growth case for the Nordics, we invest a lot in sales capacity, and we are starting to see some result when it comes to customer growth. So that is very, very nice. And maybe you can say something about this bankruptcy Henning?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

Yes, I can just repeat that the loss on IAC was entirely under expected for us as I believe it was for the automotive industry and the general public in Sweden, as such. We have had a tenured, fruitful and long customer relationship with them. It's unfortunately the largest bankruptcy in Sweden so far in 2024 to our knowledge.

Overall, and as shown in the presentation, we experienced that B2B customer behavior and settlement rates in both Norway, Sweden and Finland have been stable over the last quarters. We have made some adjustments to our loss provisions particularly related to mark-to-market valuations as forward prices have dropped also in this quarter. And of course, we monitor the situation closely as always. But this we are confident in both our credit models and our follow-up and we consider this IAC situation, a special bankruptcy that affected the Nordic segment.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. We have a question on financing. Assuming a normalized utilization of your facilities, taking into account your changed business model. How much do you expect interest costs to increase?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

That is a good and fairly detailed question. Let me start with repeating that the change in the Statkraft supply agreement will give us opportunities for improving net revenue, and we believe this will mitigate the increase in finance expenses. Then of course, you have the macro situation, financing spreads, as we said, have widened. And as you can read from our material for the main facilities, the spread will increase by 50 basis points. We consider this very attractive in the current financing market, and it also reflects the high confidence in the quality of our assets.

Then of course, it's the macro picture. We do expect that interest rates will come down. I will not speculate in and when -- and at what pace this will take place, but we still believe interest rates to come down over some time.

When it comes to the electricity prices, the forward curves, they are still at moderate price levels, which also will contribute to stabilizing interest expense in the years to come. So that will serve as the answer, and we cannot go into a detailed analysis of the interest expense in this meeting. This will, of course, materialize as we go forward quarter by quarter.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you. There's a question on the adjustments that we make to the alternative performance measure EBIT adjusted. Can you explain the adjustments to EBITDA adjusted this quarter? And can you confirm that the loss in the Nordic segment is included in that metric?

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

To be clear about the question, we have not adjusted for the loss in the Nordic. That is in EBIT reported. If that was the first part of the question, Morten?

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Yes. Correct.

[Henning Nordgulen, executive]

So we have not adjusted the adjustments we have, which are detailed in Note 2 in the financial statements, they will have the typical adjustments that we have each quarter. We adjust for our M&A depreciation. We adjust for mark-to-market changes in onerous contracts and derivatives. And we have a minor adjustment this quarter relating to our migration of the technical platforms in Gudbrandsdal Energi and in the Nordic segment.

Generally, the question about adjusting I'd like just to comment that all our reports include, as you know, both reported and adjusted figures a detailed reconciliation of adjustments, and a clear definition and detailed disclosure of the APM in the appendix of the report. So it should be quite easy for users to follow both the reported and the adjusted figures.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Okay. Next question is the following. Can you please explain the changes you implemented for Solkonto that triggered the loss of 4,000 customers? How is the profitability on these customers? Are there negative effects on deliveries from this from these changes now behind us? .

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Yes, they're behind us. And it was completely necessary to do these changes because we saw on the risk. Actually, we purchase the volume these customer produce to what might be a much lower price than the price that we had to pay when they should benefit from this account. So we didn't want to build that risk. And therefore, we changed the plan for these kind of customers. So some of the customers, they accepted the changes, but around 4,000 we had to let go.

[Morten A. W. Opdal, executive]

Thank you very much. It seems like there are no further questions here. So that concludes the presentation, and we thank you all for your attention. I wish you a nice day.

[Rolf Barmen, executive]

Thank you very much.