Elkem ASA

OSE:ELK

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Good morning. It's a pleasure welcoming you to Elkem's Fourth Quarter Results Presentation. My name is Odd-Geir Lyngstad, I'm responsible for Investor Relations in Elkem. As many of you would have noticed, we have changed the location for our quarterly presentations this year. And for those of you who are present today, they will quickly go through some safety instructions. In case of fire or another emergency, there is an emergency exit at the back. So we should go there if in case there is an alarm.

The agenda for today's presentation follows a quite standard procedure for our quarterly presentations. And with me today, I have, as usual, CEO, Helge Aasen, who will take us through the business update and the outlook for the first quarter; and CFO, Morten Viga, who will present the financials. We will open for questions after Helge and Morten's presentations.

And with that, I hand over to CEO, Helge Aasen.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you, Odd-Geir, and good morning, everyone. The markets have become increasingly difficult during the past months, but Elkem is presenting another good quarter, and this concludes a record year with all-time high revenue and EBITDA. As mentioned, market conditions have been weaker in the fourth quarter. This is particularly the case in China. And this has negatively impacted the Silicones division, whereas Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions are delivering good results.

The Group EBITDA for the quarter was NOK 1.8 billion, giving an EBITDA margin of 17%. And I think this demonstrates Elkem's robust business model given quite turbulent markets we are in. We have a diversified product portfolio and a wide geographical presence and this helps stabilize earnings. The weak market conditions in China, in other words, was offset by more favorable conditions in other regions.

We have also taken the opportunity to improve our debt maturity profile by raising EUR 200 million in the Schuldschein market on a 4 and 6-year tenure. And we are very satisfied with this transaction and comfortable with our financial position. Our earnings per share amounts to NOK 15.09 for the year, and the Board has proposed the dividend of NOK 6 per share. The dividend is equivalent to 40% of profit for the year and in line with our dividend policy. As we see it, the Board's proposal balances Elkem's strong results and robust financial position with a more uncertain and challenging market outlook.

So ESG, this is a key priority for Elkem and we have a broad approach in this area from keeping our employees safe to contributing to combat climate change. We have steadily improved our ESG work and are now rated among the world's leading companies in this area. Safety is always on top of our agenda. And we are happy to see that the negative trend during COVID now has been turned, but of course, it's definitely not yet at the level where we would like it to be.

We are pursuing a zero vision with regard to injuries and we are now rolling out a new system in the company to strengthen our EHS work. This includes more training, higher focus on leading indicators and more rigorous follow-up. Our ESG work is being recognized externally and includes strong scores from CDP. Elkem was awarded A-, both on climate and forests. And we also achieved a B score on water security.

In the quarter, we also closed our first sustainability-linked loan facility with KPIs on key sustainability goals. A highlight in the quarter was the inauguration of the world's first carbon capture pilot for ferrosilicon smelters. This took place in Elkem Rana in Norway. This is a partnership with 10 different participants where Aker Carbon Capture is a key technology provider. We have also performed an extensive mapping of the new EU taxonomy and we'll release a report on this for 2022. Our analysis in cooperation with one of the leading audit firms show that 54% of Elkem's revenue in 2021 was taxonomy eligible. We will come back later with more details on this work.

Now turning to strategy. At the Capital Markets Update in October, we presented our strategy based on what we call dual-play growth and green leadership. Our ambition is to become among the top 3 players in the Silicones industry worldwide and to be a #1 player in Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions in the Western world. That means that we target growth in all divisions, both upstream and downstream and geographically balanced across the whole value chain.

Dual-play comes from the fact that we operate fully independent value chains in the East and in the West and consequently have a limited need for shipping raw materials or intermediates across the regions. So we will continue to build on this dual structure, which then limit our exposure to trade barriers and [indiscernible] we saw during COVID. The target is to grow by more than 5% per year with an EBITDA margin of at least 15%. And the green leadership for us means that Elkem will be in the forefront on reducing emissions and increasing recycling and also energy efficiency in our industry.

And then as part of our dual growth strategy, we're happy to announce a NOK 200 million expansion project at our carbon facility in Brazil. The carbon business has been a very attractive area for us over many years with strong potential for further profitable growth. In Brazil, we are producing pitch-based binders and electrode materials at one location in the City of Vitoria, which is on the East Coast in Espirito Santos region. And we have now decided to expand this production for pitch binder with the 40% production capacity expansion, which will generate more than NOK 300 million in additional annual sales revenue. This product is used to produce refractory materials, electrodes and nodes for the metallurgical industry. This particular project is primarily targeted towards one major customer with a long-term contract associated with the investment.

Now turning to Power, which probably has been the most important topic for our industry here in Europe during the past year. Elkem's upstream metal production represents more than 80% of the company's electricity consumption. And this is primarily based on hydropower and in favorable locations in Norway, Iceland, Canada and Paraguay. The only exception is in China where we are based on an energy mix of about 70% fossil and 30% renewable energy. The plant in Brazil is fully integrated with our Silicones business. And we have an energy price there which is more or less on par with our competitors -- local competitors.

As I'm going to explain in more detail on the next slide, Norway is split into different price areas. In the Southern part of Norway, we have seen very high market prices for electricity due to the close integration with the European electricity market, whereas the Northern part of Norway has remained at much lower levels. This has not really had any significant impact on us for now due to our long-term contracts covering around 80% of consumption until 2026. From 2026, the longer term hedge is gradually declining until 2035. We think that the existing contract portfolio and the location of the plants in Norway will secure a good structure also looking forward for the coming years.

In Iceland, Canada and Paraguay, we have a combination of captive power and long-term supply agreements. More than 70% of the production of silicon and ferrosilicon takes place in China. In China, electricity prices have been on an upward trend for the last 2, 3 years. But if we compare with the levels we have seen in Europe, they are still at a much lower level, obviously. But overall, we believe that Elkem is well positioned and will remain very competitive in the years to come.

So looking more into detail on Norway. This map illustrates the different price areas and also the price differences between the Northern part and the Southern part. As explained on the previous slide, this interconnection between Southern Norway and Europe combined with bottlenecks in transfer capacity between Northern Norway and Southern Norway, creates significant price differences.

And as you can see on the map, Elkem has most of its production in the north where prices remain attractive. And as we announced in December, we temporarily closed 2 furnaces in Norway; one in Thamshavn and one in Rana. These have now been restarted. We have also announced one furnace stop in Bremanger, which will be stopped for approximately 6 weeks. In Norway, we have a total of 12 smelters or furnaces. And our target is obviously to keep full production. However, we do try to combine maintenance stops and utilize the flexibility we have in the system when market conditions allow it.

So looking at the overall portfolio, so the long-term power contracts cover approximately 80% of consumption. And this is topped up by other more short-term hedging arrangements. So when we curtail production, these hedges are discontinued and the electricity is then sold in the market. So in the fourth quarter, this, let's say, discontinuation of power hedging generated a gain of approximately NOK 40 million.

Now moving to our markets. The global automotive market had a downturn in 2020 when sales dropped from 90 million to less than 80 million vehicles per year and markets have not yet recovered. This was primarily driven by the COVID pandemic and now also the macroeconomic situation. We have continued supply chain disruptions and this has remained flat at around 80 million vehicles for the last 3 years.

For 2023, market analysts expect a moderate growth of approximately 4%. But despite a weak overall automotive market, the production of EVs, on the other hand, have been rising very strongly. And current estimates show all-time high EV, electrical vehicle production in 2022 of 16 million units. And this growth, as we've also mentioned before, the growth of EVs and hybrid vehicles is expected to continue and is good for Elkem, because the specific consumption of silicones is approximately 4x higher in an electrical vehicle than in a conventional car. And if you add on hybrids, we actually get a combination of both high silicones consumption and also higher consumption of foundry alloys.

Now a few words on the COVID situation. As I mentioned in the beginning of my presentation, this has significantly impacted the Chinese market actually during the whole year last year with the lockdowns and travel restrictions affecting demand and production. The forecasted GDP growth in China for 2022 was around 3%, which is well below numbers we have seen in the past. Even though COVID restrictions were lifted late in the fourth quarter, there was a following wave of infection rates and it probably peaked around the end of the year, which actually resulted in even lower demand short-term.

So this situation has significantly impacted our Silicones business and the Silicones division's results in most commodity segments. Construction is a good example, which of course, as you know, is a very important market for silicones in China. We do however expect the situation to improve gradually now after Chinese New Year as infection rates already have come down and the government is quite clearly announcing further measures to stimulate the economic growth.

So yes, as mentioned, the market sentiment for silicones products weakened during the quarter. As you can see from this chart to the right, the DMC price declined during the quarter and went below RMB 17,000 per tonne towards the end of the quarter. And this is a good indicator of the general price development for silicones products in China. At RMB 17,000 at this level for DMC, the price is actually 15% lower than the price for chemical-grade silicon metal, which is a key raw material feedstock in the production of silicones.

You need about 500 kilograms of silicon metal to produce 1 tonne of silicones. So this means that the raw material cost alone for silicones could be up to RMB 10,000 per tonne. So in other words, the margin pressure is significant, especially for non-integrated players. So the worst impact has been in China, but we have also seen a slowdown in other markets in demand, both in Europe and in the U.S. However, demand is still holding up well for specialties in these regions, mainly driven by EV, healthcare and consumer -- other consumer products.

Moving on to silicon and ferrosilicon, market prices are relatively stable, somewhat down compared with the fourth quarter, but prices are still at attractive levels historically and actually even more so for silicon and ferrosilicon. Margins are under pressure also here due to higher raw material costs and general cost increases. And combined with the energy situation, much of the European capacity is now idle as market prices simply are not sufficient to cover marginal cost on power and raw materials for our competitors. So temporary capacity closures clearly help balance out a weaker demand. And we expect actually a relatively balanced supply-demand situation going forward.

In China, energy costs have been on the rise, as I have mentioned, and remain on a high level. Seasonally, energy costs in China have increased in the fourth quarter. This is likely to come down somewhat later in the year. But yes, despite all these challenges, the Chinese silicon market demand has actually increased quite significantly last year, almost 20%. And this is largely driven by high demand from polysilicon, which is a key feedstock going into the manufacturing of solar cells.

Steel and ferroalloy markets as well as aluminum are important drivers for the Carbon Solutions business. This is both directly and indirectly. The demand for Carbon Products varies geographically, depending on local conditions. And as such, Elkem's global position provides a very good stability due to these regional market differences.

The global steel production in the fourth quarter was estimated down about 2% compared to the third quarter, the previous quarter. Chinese and U.S. steel production is estimated down by around 4% in the quarter, while the EU and other regions have remained stable. So the weak steel markets and reduced ferroalloy and aluminum production have resulted in somewhat weaker demand also for Carbon Products during fourth quarter. Raw materials costs have continued to increase also here, but this is largely offset by higher sales prices.

So I think that concludes my business update, and I'll give the word to our CFO, Morten Viga, who will take us through the financials.

[Morten Viga, executive]

Thank you, Helge, and good morning, everybody. It certainly is a pleasure to once again present good Group results for Elkem, although there are clearly big differences between the various divisions. Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions, they do continue to deliver good results, but the result was clearly weak for Silicones. I will come back to that. But as already mentioned, the Silicones profitability has been severely impacted by the COVID situation in China.

In the fourth quarter, Elkem had operating income of NOK 10.4 billion, which was in line with Q4 2021. The EBITDA amounted to NOK 1.8 billion, giving an EBITDA margin of 17% for the quarter. The result is weaker than the fourth quarter last year and the previous quarters in 2022, but still NOK 1.8 billion is -- in one quarter is still a good result given the turbulent market conditions that we have seen.

And we believe that the result is once again demonstrating Elkem's robust business models based on diversified product portfolio and a very balanced geographic position. High sales prices have clearly been a driver for Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions, but the results are also due to fundamentally superior cost positions and excellent market positions where we believe that Elkem has a clear competitive advantage versus most competitors.

As always, we have for your benefit, included the main financial numbers and ratios on this slide. The EBITDA for the quarter amounted to NOK 1,787 million, which then corresponds to an EBITDA margin of 17%. There are no significant one-offs in the quarter, but please note that the EBITDA included a realized currency hedging loss of minus NOK 34 million, which is reported in the segment other. And as Helge mentioned, the gain on sales of power amounted to NOK 40 million in the quarter. And this is reported in other items and it's not included in the EBITDA.

From Q1 this year, we will change the reporting so that any realized gains or losses on hedging are included in EBITDA as we believe that will improve the reporting. Other items were positive with NOK 168 million. Elkem had unrealized gains on power and currency derivatives of NOK 333 million. And this was partly offset by unrealized currency losses of -- on working capital items due to translation effects.

Net finance income minus NOK 208 million. Interest expenses have increased due to higher benchmark rates. In addition, Elkem had unrealized losses on shareholder loans in Chinese RMB and U.S. dollar, and this amounted to minus NOK 129 million. And the tax costs for the quarter amounted to minus NOK 255 million, and this gives an effective tax rate of 22%. The tax rate for full year 2022 was 21% and in line with our guiding and expectations.

Let's then have a look at the divisional results, and let's start with Silicones [indiscernible] previously discussed, the results for the Silicones divisions were very weak in the fourth quarter. Total operating income was NOK 4.14 billion. That was down 21% from fourth quarter last year. The decline is mainly explained by lower sales prices, particularly for commodities in China where we have seen that DMC prices have come down below RMB 17,000 per tonne. And the reported EBITDA ended up negative with minus NOK 52 million. This is explained by several factors, including lower sales prices and high raw material costs.

But we should also mention that this is impacted by write-downs on inventories due to low prices and also extraordinary maintenance costs, which in total, added up to NOK 175 million. So underlying, there was a positive EBITDA for the division of approximately NOK 125 million. We saw a clear decrease in demand towards the end of the year, very much due to destocking effects and really the escalation of the COVID pandemic in China. Prices and demand for specialty products on the other side have been holding up quite well.

Let's then move to the Silicon Products division. And this division has once again delivered strong results, benefiting from high prices, but also taking advantage of superior cost positions. Total operating income was almost NOK 5.6 billion in the quarter, up 17% from the fourth quarter of last year. Increased operating income was explained mainly by higher sales prices for silicon and foundry alloys. However, this has been partly countered by lower ferrosilicon prices and somewhat lower sales volumes.

The EBITDA amounted to almost NOK 1.6 billion, which was down 3% from fourth quarter in last year. The lower EBITDA was mainly explained by higher raw material costs and lower sales volumes. The EBITDA margin was 29%, which we believe is a very good level compared to almost all competitors in this industry. And as previously mentioned, please note that the sale of power is not included in the EBITDA. And for this division, that amounted to NOK 32 million for the quarter related to temporary shutdowns in Thamshavn and Rana, predominantly related to extended maintenance work. The sales volumes are quite stable despite weak market sentiment and the market is relatively balanced since much capacity has been taken out in Europe among our main competitors.

As already mentioned, the Carbon Solutions division also had another strong quarter. Total operating income almost NOK 1.1 billion. That's up 69% from the same quarter of last year which are partly offset also by higher raw material costs and somewhat lower sales volumes. EBITDA margin was 29%, down from an exceptionally strong Q3, but still at a very good level.

Sales volumes were reduced due to weaker markets for aluminum, particularly in Europe, and also weaker market sentiments for ferroalloys in general. And the market development is, let's say, it's unstable in the various regions. But also here, I believe that our business model is very robust as we have a very diversified business model and a strong geographical footprint and a global business model.

Let's then look at some of Elkem's key financial ratios. The earnings per share was down compared to the previous quarters in 2022, but it ended still at an attractive level of NOK 1.41 per share. And the EPS for the full year 2022 ended at NOK 15.09 per share. And this is of course an all-time high number. And based on that, the Board of Elkem ASA has proposed a dividend of NOK 6 per share. This is in line with Elkem's dividend policy and it corresponds to 40% of EPS. That's the midpoint of our dividend policy. And we believe that this is a good balance between the good results in 2022 and Elkem's rock solid financial position on the one hand, but also it takes into account the more uncertain macroeconomic situation that we are within. And the dividend, it also represents a yield of 17% based on the average share price of 2022, which should be clearly very attractive.

Total equity amounted to NOK 28.8 billion by the end of December, and this gives an equity ratio of 55%. And if you adjust for the proposed dividend, then the equity would have been NOK 24.9 billion, and that represents still a very, very solid equity ratio of 51%. As I said, our balance sheet is very solid. And on the debt side, Scope has affirmed Elkem's credit rating of BBB stable in Q4 following the Group's strong financial performance and also pinpointing our favorable market positions.

The net interest-bearing debt amounted to NOK 2.6 billion by the end of Q4 and this is a small reduction from the previous quarter. Based on the last 12 months EBITDA, that gave a debt leverage ratio of 0.2, which is the same level as per the end of Q3. The communicated target is through the cycle have a leverage of between 1x to 2x EBITDA, and we are currently well below this target. But if we take into consideration the Board's dividend proposal, well, then the net interest-bearing debt would increase to NOK 6.5 billion and that will correspond to a leverage ratio of 0.5x.

Elkem has further improved its maturity profile, both in Q4 and the year as such. And in Q4, we raised EUR 200 million in the Schuldschein market on a 4 to 6 years tenors at very attractive terms and conditions. And as you may remember, in Q2, we also refinanced and increased our main bank facilities with a new maturity date in 2027. So our maturity profile is now extremely robust and long-term. The debt maturities that you can see in 2023, mainly consists of local working capital financing, which are regularly rolled over and where we see no renewal or refinancing risk.

The 2 large or the large silicones expansion project is already fully funded, partly with equity and partly with new local loans where we have attracted very attractive long-term loans with a 10-year installment profile, which we believe provides a very good financing solution for that project. The cash flow generation was good also in Q4 and it amounted to NOK 1.6 billion. Operating profit was clearly lower than the previous quarter, but lower working capital has also impacted the cash flow positively.

Net working capital was reduced in the quarter, partly explained by lower net receivables, but this was also offset by somewhat higher inventories. The investments amounted to NOK 2.2 billion for the fourth quarter. And this is significantly higher than previous quarters, but in line with our guiding for the year in total. There have been some projects delay, mainly COVID-related. And for these projects, we now -- are now catching up with the original investment schedules.

Reinvestments for the quarter amounted to NOK 784 million, equaling 146% of D&A. That's clearly on the high side, very much so. But for the full year 2022, reinvestments amounted to 84% of depreciation and amortization, which is spot on our target guiding. Strategic investments were NOK 1.4 billion in the quarter, mainly related to the 2 Silicones expansion project, one in China and one in France. And strategic investments for the full year 2022 amounted to NOK 2.8 billion. In China, we have now completed approximately 50% of the major expansion project, which will then be ramped up approximately 12 months from now.

So with that, I would like to hand back the word to Helge, who will then take us through the outlook for the first quarter.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you, Morten. So yes, the market sentiment is impacted by macroeconomic uncertainty and lower growth in key sectors. The silicones market, as we have talked a lot about today, is weak now going into the first quarter, but is expected to improve after Chinese New Year. But there is also a risk of national strikes in France that could impact the Silicones division. The overall market sentiment in Silicon Products is also weaker, but significant capacity curtailments seem to balance the market at the current level. Reference prices for silicon and ferrosilicon are somewhat down compared with the fourth quarter, and this will have an impact on the first quarter contract prices. We've also seen somewhat lower demand in Carbon Solutions due to closures in steel manufacturing, but the markets are expected to be stable.

So I think that concludes our presentation. And I'll hand it back to Odd-Geir, who will take us through the Q&A.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

We have quite a few questions received on the web. But first, I would like to take the opportunity to see if there are any questions from the audience. If not, let's move to the questions we have received. I think this is for you, Morten. What is the split of the NOK 175 million in Silicones between inventory write-downs and extraordinary maintenance?

[Morten Viga, executive]

It's approximately 50% on each of those elements. As Helge said, we are taking the opportunity now to do some extended maintenance while the market allows for us. And that will clearly -- that puts us in an even better position when the market really picks up again.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And from Jonathan Cheung in Morgan Stanley. He asks, if you are seeing -- what we are seeing on the ground in China post Chinese New Year in terms of demand indications? And if you expect any signs that the Silicones DMC prices are improving?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

It's a little early to conclude the significant improvement, but prices did actually go up a little bit last week. So maybe we can take that as an early sign of some improvement.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And also a question related to pricing more in for Silicon Products. What we think is a sustainable level of profitability under the current energy price environment for Silicon Products? And if we expect the China reopening and some steel mills in Europe also that prices will sequentially improve? And also, Morten Normann in Carnegie is asking more about the same, given on the relative balance market in Silicon Products, if we expect that prices will remain flat going forward?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Yes, I think high energy prices are supporting the current price level of silicon and ferrosilicon. And given the capacity that's now taken out, I think that it's very likely that this will remain reasonably flat. And of course, which is good for us because we have a very good cost position.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And commenting on capacity reductions, there are a couple of questions also from Morten Normann in Carnegie and Martin Melbye in ABG. You stated significant capacity curtailments are balancing ferrosilicon and silicon metal markets at current level. What is the size of these curtailments and which companies are cut? And the same is basically Martin Melbye's questions, please elaborate on significant silicon curtailments.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

I don't think I can give numbers on what the competitors are doing. But of course, we follow inventories and we follow the demand, the signals that we get and the conclusion is that this is balanced. I don't know if you want to add something, Morten.

[Morten Viga, executive]

No, I think we would certainly not go into details on competitors' capacity utilization, but I think it's well known for everybody in the industry that our main competitors in Europe have taken out significant capacity. And we know that producing metals in Continental Europe these days with the large consumption of electric power is very expensive. And that puts us in an extraordinary good competitive position because we have long-term contracts and we have renewable power, both in Norway, in Iceland, Quebec, Canada and in Paraguay. So that's a fundamental competitive edge that we have and we believe that that is also going to be very important going forward.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Then I have a few questions from Kenneth Sivertsen in Pareto. He is asking, first, Silicon Products delivered very solid results and margins with a large share of fixed cost. Could you please elaborate about margins into 2023 given current market prices?

[Morten Viga, executive]

Yes, as I said, I think we have a fundamental cost advantage both due to of course our power positions, which are fundamentally very attractive, but also due to the fact that we have extremely well-maintained assets. We have a strong organization and we probably have a higher productivity than most other competitors. And we also have a very good product portfolio with a high degree of specialty products. So also given the fact that at least we expect good price levels going forward, hopefully, when we also see a recovery in the Western economy, there should be a basis also for improving sales prices. And that means that we are quite optimistic about, let's say, the margins going forward.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Next question was, the Silicones results were weak, but could you indicate where Elkem is placed on the cost curve in China?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

We of course have not finished our expansion, which will improve the cost position, but we are approximately in the middle of the fact, I would say, in the Chinese market right now with the current capacity. But as you said, we will then 12 months from now have a brand-new production line in China that will increase capacity by 50% and it will significantly improve our cost position. It will significantly also improve the chemical quality of our products, putting us in a better position to produce specialty products. And we have previously communicated significantly higher margin on that new production line compared to the average margins in Silicones. And we also towards the end of this year, we are opening up a new production line in France, which will have some of the same features.

[Morten Viga, executive]

For the silicones insiders, I could add that we are currently mainly operating in the cyclic part of the market. With the new expansion, we will also be able to produce what we call linears, which will give us an opportunity to expand the product portfolio.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

The last question from Kenneth is, inventories have increased markedly for year-on-year for finished goods. Is that reflecting end markets?

[Morten Viga, executive]

No, we have seen a slight increase in inventories and this is something that we really put a high focus on. Clearly, we have a higher capacity utilization than most competitors, because -- particularly in Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions because our cost position is better. But as we have also said, we have taken some adjustments on our production side, doing more maintenance also in order to optimize inventories. And we're not concerned about our inventory level.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Then some questions from Magnus Rasmussen in SEB. The first one relates to DMC prices where he says that one year ago, we argued that DMC prices towards end of '21 enabled Elkem to renegotiate higher prices for specialty products for 2022. Now that DMC prices towards the end of 2022 have been weak, does that mean that specialty prices also will come down?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

I don't see that happening. It's -- actually specialties are still holding up quite well and it's a much more stable market environment. So I think this will affect commodities, first of all.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

So next question, despite significant power price hedging your cost in Silicon Products is up by more than 30% since the fourth quarter 2021. Can you elaborate on the cost drivers here? And what we should expect going forward?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Well, I can at least mention -- I mean, general inflation, obviously, is having an impact, and the coal prices -- we use coal as a reductant producing silicon and ferrosilicon. So that, as you know, have had a significant price increase.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And the next question is related to Elkem's power contracts. If you could please elaborate a bit on the [ longevity ] and whether you would have seen higher prices is renegotiating Norwegian contracts now?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Morten?

[Morten Viga, executive]

No, I think we are in a very good position. We have a portfolio of bilateral power contracts in Norway. For the first 3 years, we have basically between 80% to 90% hedging. And then we have a portfolio of contracts where the longest contract has a duration up until 2035.

I think the good news is that we have been able to buy also new contracts recently. We did that in 2022 at attractive price levels. We also expect to be able to do that going forward, particularly in Central and Northern Norway. So we -- although we clearly -- we follow the political discussions about the power situation in Norway and we believe that it is important to establish new power production, but we are not concerned about our own position in a short and medium term perspective.

And in the other important regions, in Iceland, we have a long-term contract with a national power company. In Canada, we have captive power production plus a long-term contract with Hydro-Quebec. And also in Paraguay, we have a long-term power contract. So we are in a very good position, both from a financial and from a sustainability perspective when it comes to our electric energy sources.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

I'll continue with questions from Magnus Rasmussen, and the next question is related to dividend. With a fantastic 2022 behind you, very low leverage ratios and high cash balances, why not end up in the higher end of your dividend payout ratio guidance?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Obviously, this was thoroughly discussed in the Board meeting and ended up at NOK 6 or 40%. So very much in the middle of the range. I think the main reason why that was not increased further is related to the overall macroeconomic uncertainty. If we look into what could happen later in the year and that was mainly the reason. So Morten, I don't know if you want to add?

[Morten Viga, executive]

No. But I think after all NOK 6 per share is a very high and good dividend. It represents 17% dividend yield. And it also leaves us with a very strong balance sheet going forward. So I think it's a very good, let's say, not compromise, but we are meeting, let's say, both our motivation to be able to grow the company, but also to generate a very attractive reallocation of cash to the shareholders.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And you kind of alluded to growth and strategic -- next question and last question from Magnus is then, what CapEx beyond maintenance should we expect for 2023?

[Morten Viga, executive]

No, I think in maintenance or reinvestments, you should expect a slightly higher investment in 2023 compared to 2022 just because our balance sheet has grown. We still target to be within 70% or 80% to 90% of depreciation and amortization. Strategic investments, you should count on approximately the same level as 2020.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Yes, also consider because they bring the higher inflation, that of course will also impact the absolute figures on reinvestments.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

[indiscernible] is saying, thanks for a great presentation. And she has a question for Elkem, which is, what do you see as the areas for strategic improvement for Elkem in 2023?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

I think we are continuing to pursue a specialization strategy. And I think our biggest challenge is to accelerate that.

[Morten Viga, executive]

If I may add, we should now also see a very good improvement in our cost position and cost competitiveness of our Silicones business when we complete our expansion projects, both in France and in China 10 to 12 months from now.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Niclas Gehin in DNB is asking, how much of the NOK 40 million in power sale gains in fourth quarter come from the announced curtailments in Rana and Thamshavn? And also looking at the high silicon prices and ferrosilicon prices versus power prices in Northern Norway, the curtailments do not necessarily look profitable on a net basis. Are there any other considerations?

[Helge Aasen, executive]

I think we've explained the first part already.

[Morten Viga, executive]

Yes. We sort of -- NOK 32 million relates to Silicon Products. Let's also stress the fact that we do not, let's say, take out capacity predominantly to sell power. We are here to produce and sell metal and we have very good positions to do so. But as we said, we take the opportunities when the market allow to do maintenance and then we also sell back power -- surplus power back to the market, which has yielded a profit, but which has also been good for the power market balance in a rather difficult situation.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

As you see from the numbers, the magnitude of this is still quite small.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Then Sindre Sorbye in Arctic is asking about the cost development going forward, particularly for carbon, and I assume that is kind of coal and reduction in materials and also logistic costs.

[Morten Viga, executive]

We have seen a significant reduction in logistics costs, that's good. Having said that, I think we also came through that logistics crisis in a better way than most competitors because we have partly our own logistics chain with partly or fully owned companies. There is clearly an inflation pressure on fixed cost, on maintenance, on salary, et cetera, et cetera, while on raw materials, we see that costs are declining, but still at a rather high level.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Yes, I think as I've already discussed, coal is the main raw material that we've seen a significant price increase, but the current market, that has come down again. So I think things are looking -- quite good visibility on that and it looks good.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

And then we have time for a very last question from Martin Melbye in ABG again, and the tax rate for 2023?

[Morten Viga, executive]

That will be in line with 2022, 22% to 22%.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Any questions from the audience? Doesn't seem to be there. So then I would like to thank everyone for attending, and have a nice day.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you.