Elkem ASA

OSE:ELK

Earnings Call Transcript 2020-Q4

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

A very good morning to all of you. It's a pleasure welcoming you to Elkem's Fourth Quarter 2020 Results Presentation. My name is Odd-Geir Lyngstad, and I'm responsible for Investor Relations here in Elkem. With me today, I have CEO, Michael Koenig, who will take us through the business update and also the outlook; and I have also CFO, Morten Viga, taking us through the financials. All the questions will be after the presentations. Unfortunately, we do not have any audience here today, so all questions will be on the webcast. And with that, I leave the word to CEO, Michael Koenig.

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Well, thank you very much, Odd-Geir. Good morning, everybody. It's a pleasure to be here to present the fourth quarter results of Elkem today to you. And it is a particular pleasure because the fourth quarter 2020 has really differentiated itself a lot from the rest of the year, and I would already want to say now, and that trend continues. So we feel very comfortable with what we have achieved and what we will achieve in Elkem. You will see that the EBITDA of Elkem has, in the fourth quarter, reached the highest level since 2018. And that had a couple of reasons. That comes clearly from improved market sentiment, and we will talk about that during this presentation, but it also comes from the fact that what we have done during 2020: focused on specialization, focused on operational improvement, focused on guiding the sales volume where we can improve and optimize our profit, all these efforts now in a rising markets payout, and that has led to this fantastic result that we have achieved in Q4 2020, with an EBITDA margin of 13% and an EBITDA of almost NOK 940 million.But it's not just the commercial results that make Q4 outstanding. It's also the progress that we make on our ESG and sustainability profile. We have been awarded with an A rating in corporate sustainability by the Carbon Disclosure Project. And that clearly is recognizing the increased efforts that Elkem has put into sustainability over the last year.The Board has proposed to stick to our dividend distribution policy with a payout of 36% of net profit. That, however, for the year 2020 is going to result only in a dividend of NOK 0.15 per share.Market outlook. And I said that in my introduction already, market outlook for Q1 is good. So we see positive trends continuing from Q4 into Q1. However, of course, there is macroeconomic uncertainty, mainly stemming from the continued coronavirus crisis throughout the world.With that, I'd like to spend a bit of time on our ESG ratings. I already mentioned it before. We are very happy that we have been awarded with the A rating by the Carbon Disclosure Project. That positions us in the top 5% of companies that are being rated by CDP. And I just believe that demonstrates that our efforts, our progress, the projects that we have talked about over the last quarters, but also the transparency that we are creating in terms of sustainability and what we are doing, that this now pays out and gets recognized by rating agencies. At the same time, we have been awarded Gold performance by EcoVadis. Also that, and that demonstrates that CDP is not just a single rating that we achieved. Also that puts us in the top 5% of rated companies. So Elkem really now gets recognized as a leader in sustainability, and we believe that is important for Elkem in the future and gives us a competitive advantage over other companies.Now 1 example that I would like to introduce, which contributes to our improved profile, is the battery materials project that we have mentioned before. That is a significant opportunity to create green value. So what do we want to do? We want to establish a leading position in battery anode materials, because that's what fits to the technology and the competence that we have in the company. Now with the increase in penetration of electric vehicles, the market for automotive batteries, and therefore, the market for anode materials is sharply on the rise. And you will have seen the increase in EV sales throughout the year 2020, worldwide, but in particular, in China and also increasingly so in Europe. That's driven by regulation, but it's also driven by availability of more electric car models and also by a shift in opinion in the general population.In Q4 2020, in Europe, the percentage of electric cars has gone up to 10% versus more in the 3% to 5% arena before. If you add electric hybrids to it, you come to 20%. That's a very substantial amount, and that drives the battery project. It also drives other businesses in Elkem because the percentage of our products in an electric car is higher than in a combustion engine car.But back to the battery materials project, we are planning to build a battery anode material plant. We want to build that in Herøya, which we have selected as the location for our industrial plant. And we are currently testing and preparing our pilot plant that we have built in Kristiansand and getting it ready for production, which will most likely happen in March 2021.The purpose of this pilot plant is to qualify products with customers. So far, we have only limited volumes of materials available to qualify materials with customers, and that is a prerequisite to then afterwards build an industrial plant and to deliver commercial material to customers.We have already published before that we will look for external partners in order to accelerate this project. It's a capital-intensive project. And in order to gain market traction, we want to start it with a significant capacity.And we will, in the very near future, also formally invite financial and industrial partners to join us in this effort, and we have appointed ABG as our financial adviser for that. A very exciting project and a project that really is trailblazing in Norway for battery materials.Now besides battery materials, besides the sustainability activities, what we have seen in Q4 in general is a continued recovery of our key markets. Automotive is our biggest customer industry, and automotive has recovered quite dramatically in Q4.We have discussed in Q3 already that the Chinese automotive market had recovered, and it has further recovered in Q4, almost going up to record level sales from 2019, but also the European and American automotive market has clearly recovered, and you can see that from the chart -- on the right-hand side of the chart here.That is driving Elkem's business. And it's driving Elkem's business even more because of the higher percentage of electric vehicles. In China, very strong regulatory push on electric vehicles. In Europe, increasing regulatory push on electric vehicles, but also, as I mentioned earlier, more availability of attractive car models. And then now also in the U.S. discussions on increased push for electric vehicles, and that is going to drive Elkem's business even stronger in the past.China, the Chinese economy appears to have recovered from the virus crisis. GDP growth in 2020, 2.3%; expectations for 2021, above 7%. So China is front-running the economic recovery from the crisis and very clearly, Elkem, given its position, given the strong exposure we have to the Chinese market with our silicones business there, and the improved operational performance is ideally positioned to benefit from that.What we have also done is continued to work on our specialization strategy. And I would like to introduce 2 decisions that we have made in Q4 that continue to drive our strategy to become more specialized. One is that we have decided and signed an agreement to acquire a custom-designed plant for organo-functional silicones in France, very close to the location of our R&D headquarter. Organo-functional silicones are ingredients that combine organic and inorganic properties of silicones with organic materials that improves the capabilities of personal care ingredients, that improves the capabilities of release coatings. So it's a very important, a very small specialty ingredient to a number of industries and products. And we are very happy to be able with this plant to enter this very exciting arena. It's for us a starting point, where afterwards, we can use the products and the technology also in other parts of the world in order to build a stronger business in organo-functional silicones.At the same time, we have decided to build a new production workshop for low viscosity silicone fluids in our plant in China in Xinghuo. Low viscosity silicone fluids are an ingredient into many personal care products. They will, that's our belief, over time replace cyclic siloxane in many personal care applications because governments are phasing out these products. So that, again, will position Elkem at the forefront of technological and product change and also at the forefront of complying with new environmental regulations.A bit more on silicones as the biggest business that Elkem is running. We have seen in our silicones business a very good development in 2020, in particular, in the fourth quarter. But even before, we have seen that the acquisitions that we did, 2019, early 2020, Basel and Polysil, that has strengthened our product offering. They work very well in themselves, but they also have strengthened our R&D capabilities. And they are contributing, not just with their own business, but also with their R&D inputs into our global position.We have the new global research and development headquarter, which is under construction in France and which we will open in the second quarter of 2021. That will further support the R&D push to making Elkem a more specialized and leading company when it comes to product development in the silicones area.There are very strong industry fundamentals, driven by growth in China, but also by growth in the rest of the world. And we have seen that even Q4 and Q3 even more were very challenging macroeconomic environments, and Elkem and the silicones market has done very well. And again, the expansion into electric vehicles, but also expansion into medical silicones, that now starts to contribute to our business and also provides the basis for growth in the years to come.What we have also done in 2020 and what has contributed significantly to the good Q4 results is that we have improved our operations, we've improved our reliability and that has helped us ramping up quite quickly when the market sentiment changed to the positive.We have done 1 organizational change that will again help to streamline our production. The silicon metal plant that we are running in China in Yongdeng, we have moved it into the silicones division to make clear this is a captive producer of silicon metal. We are not participating in the silicon metal market in China. That creates some synergies, and that makes us, again, more efficient in the market. So again, what has happened a bit more in detail in the silicones market in Q4. We had a very strong market in China, but with very volatile pricing. And you can see that on the right-hand side of the chart. There was lack of availability in the Chinese market towards November, December, that was exacerbated by a fire in silicones plant in Zhejiang. And that has created very volatile pricing. This price peak has come down since, and you can see that from the chart, but stabilized at a very attractive level above RMB 20,000 per ton, and it looks like this trend is going to continue.Of course, we will now see -- in February, we will see a slowdown coming up from the Chinese New Year. That will actually start tomorrow. But the fundamentals of the silicones market in China, but also in Europe and in the U.S., have been very strong in Q4 and continue to be strong also in Q1, and we see rising prices, even though not at that speed and level, also outside of China.Silicon and ferrosilicon markets have improved as well. Also here, our strategy to keep a high utilization to not shutdown plants who benefit from our competitive cost position has paid out when market sentiment was improving. We see that market prices have increased during fourth quarter and in silicon and ferrosilicon, we see prices still improving. And you can see that from the right-hand side of this chart.There is strong demand roughly on pre-COVID levels, and that's driven again by automotive, partly also by steel, in general. And at least at this point in time, supply is still low because many plants have been shut down, and it will take a significant time until all of these plants will be up and running again if they are all coming on stream again.We are impacted quite a bit by challenges in our supply chain, in particular, low availability of containers, in particular, shipments between Europe and Asia. Shipments, partially also between Europe and the U.S. are difficult to organize, often delayed. That is a real challenge. And our customers are demanding material because the stock levels, in particular, in Europe, are very, very low.And the same phenomenon that now steel is picking up, automotive is picking up, that also drives our carbon business. Carbon Solutions always stable in margin, but also Carbon Solutions now sees higher demand and is getting more orders from customers. So also here, we will continue the very successful development that we have seen throughout the whole year in our carbon business.So with this introduction, I'd hand it over to Morten to lead you through the results. Thank you very much. Morten, over to you.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you very much, Michael, and good morning, everybody. Well, it is a pleasure to report the highest EBITDA since 2018. And there are certainly several drivers behind that. First of all, we have seen a market recovery. But above all, we have seen good results from our focus areas within specialization, within operational improvements, and of course, we have also enjoyed the benefits of all-time high sales.So the operating income came in at more than NOK 7.1 billion, that is an improvement of 28% from Q4 in '19. The biggest uplift in silicones, more than NOK 1 billion improvement, but also silicon products, improving top line by almost NOK 0.5 billion.Our EBITDA came in at NOK 938 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 13%. That is an improvement of 80% versus Q4 2019. And also here, the biggest improvement from silicones with more than NOK 260 million EBITDA improvement. Also, silicon products, good improvement, NOK 137 million. And carbon, stable, but continuous improvement, NOK 33 million up versus last year.So for your benefit, we have, as always, included the main financial numbers on this page. Let's start with the EBITDA, NOK 938 million, that also includes losses on our FX hedging program of NOK 40 million. So the underlying EBITDA is NOK 978 million.We are very pleased to report also that our productivity improvement program, that will improve our fixed cost -- our fixed personnel cost by 10%, is moving ahead according and ahead of plan. And by the end of 2020, we have an annual run rate improvement of more than NOK 200 million. And we are committed to deliver the NOK 350 million as per end of this year. We have other items, minus NOK 134 million, the major part of that is coming from nonrealized negative currency effects of minus NOK 128 million, that's mainly related to working capital improvements as a stronger NOK. We have a change in the fair value of all mainly energy, Norwegian energy contracts of minus NOK 40 million. And on our PIP program, we see that the speed is higher-than-expected and also the one-off costs are lower than expected. So we have been able to reduce the provision from NOK 200 million to NOK 160 million, resulting then in a NOK 40 million improvement for the quarter.Net financial items, minus NOK 49 million, very much in line with guiding. It's minus NOK 59 million on normal interest cost and NOK 12 million due to translation effects on our euro loans.Taxes, quite high, minus NOK 165 million. It's the same pattern as we have had throughout 2020. It's quite an extraordinary year also in terms of taxes, rather low taxable profit, and we are paying tax in a number of countries. But we are also having tax losses carryforward, where we're not able to capitalize the taxable losses.Let's talk about Silicones. Strong markets and good operations. The operating income was almost NOK 3.9 billion, that's up 38% compared to last year. It's certainly higher sales volume throughout the regions and business streams and a price recovery, particularly in China.We have an EBITDA of almost NOK 580 million, that's also up, almost doubling the EBITDA compared to Q4 last year, up 84%. It's strong sales volumes, high prices, but also a very solid improvement in our operational excellence.And if we look at our sales volumes, we have all-time high sales. It's both reflecting, of course, an improvement in market conditions, but it's also reflecting our long-term work on improving our product offering, our good positioning into attractive segments. And we particularly have seen a good recovery in specialty segments, above all in automotive, where we do have strong positions.Also, Silicon Products. We see -- also in Silicon Products, we see good improvements, reflecting strong market positions and also a general market recovery. The operating income amounted to almost NOK 3.1 billion, that's up 19% compared to last year. We see an increase, both in terms of volumes, but also in terms of price recovery. The EBITDA amounted to NOK 318 million, that's an improvement of 76% compared to fourth quarter last year. It's once again higher sales volume, and also here, significant improvement in operational performance, and we have also had the benefit of higher sales prices.And also here, we have seen a good recovery in demand from specialty segments, particularly automotive. All in all, sales volumes were at all-time high levels, 147,000 tons of primary products.Carbon Solutions, the smallest but the most stable business area in terms of profitability. We've also very stable performance at a high level in Q4. We posted operating income of NOK 461 million, that was in line with Q4 last year. We have very good stability, both in volume and in prices. And we think that is the strength of the business area in the middle of a pandemic.We have an EBITDA of NOK 106 million, and that is a very solid improvement of 46% compared to fourth quarter last year. It's a better product mix, higher sales of high-value specialty products and it's also excellent cost management and cost improvement programs, giving good results.The sales volumes was very stable. Also clearly representing the fact that we have very solid market positions with very solid and stable sales volumes. As Michael said, we -- the Board has proposed a dividend of NOK 0.15 per share. The earnings per share amounted to NOK 0.18 in the fourth quarter and NOK 0.41 for the year in total.The total equity amounted to NOK 12.6 billion as per 31st of December 2020. We have a very robust balance sheet, with an equity ratio of 41%. If you compare that with Q4 '19, we will see a gradual reduction from 45%, that is mainly due to currency effects, weaker NOK compared to the situation 1 year ago.We are -- we have had big focus on our leverage, and we have seen that the debt leverage has increased in line with weak results coming from the pandemic situation. We are very happy that we have now turned this trend. And the net interest-bearing debt has been reduced to NOK 8.1 billion. And we also have a reduction in the leverage ratio, down to 3x the last 12 months EBITDA. We have a very solid debt structure. And we have a very good strategy, good control of the upcoming maturities. The maturities, short-term maturities in China mainly consist of local working capital financing, which is rolled over on a continuous basis.Then we're having a NOK 2 billion maturity coming up in December this year, mainly related to Norwegian bonds. We're also very comfortable with that situation. We established last summer, a bridge facility to handle or to optimize refinancing of that. And we will, probably, be looking now for evaluate the attractiveness of transforming that bridge financing into new long-term financing.Cash flow for Q4. Very good cash flow from operations, almost NOK 1.1 billion. That is, of course, due to a good improvement in underlying margins and EBITDA, but we have also worked very systematically on optimizing and reducing our working capital, and we're very pleased to report that working capital was at an all-time low level as per end of Q4, resulting then in a very good cash flow from operations.Investments, a bit higher towards the end of the year. Reinvestments NOK 560 million in Q4. In 2020 in total, almost NOK 1.4 billion, that represents 81% of depreciation and amortization, in line with our guiding. And also strategic investments, NOK 259 million for Q4 and NOK 830 million for 2020, very much in line with previous guiding.So Michael, please take us through the outlook for the first quarter.

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Morten, thank you very much. Well, with the results of Q4, Elkem has gone through 2020, which was due to the COVID-19 crisis, a very challenging, very difficult year, on a level in terms of operating income and EBITDA at or above the year 2019. And that is a very strong result. So we are entering 2021 from a very robust position.We are continuing to improve our operational excellence. We are continuing to focus on specialization, and we will continue to benefit from the preparational work, from the improvement work that we have done in 2020. And that is the basis for further growth in 2021.Market sentiment continues to be positive into Q1 2021. We see continued improvement. But of course, macroeconomic outlook midterm is still uncertain as it is unclear how the world is going to get out of the COVID-19 crisis.Silicones prices in China are at attractive levels in early 2021. You have seen the spike that we had in Q4, that has come down since, but it is remaining at a very attractive level in China. In Europe and North America, prices are picking up. Chinese New Year is coming up, starting on Thursday. That will have a significant impact. The disruption of business through Chinese New Year is as strong or stronger as Christmas is in the western world, but we are confident that after Chinese New Year, markets will continue to be very attractive and pick up, but of course, Chinese New Year is going to have a negative impact on our Q1 results.We are seeing prices for silicon and ferrosilicon continuously rising, and that trend has also continued into Q1, and we will gradually see that reflected also in the pricing of our products. Steel and ferroalloy materials continue to improve. Also, that means that we have a positive market sentiment for our Carbon Products. So in summary, we are looking very confident into Q1 2021 with some uncertainties when it comes to the later part of the year due to open questions around COVID-19.With that, I would like to thank you very much for your attention this morning. We were very happy to be able to present Elkem's results to you, and I would now hand it over to Odd-Geir for Q&A. Thank you very much.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Thank you very much, Michael. And we have some questions here on the webcast. I'll start with Thomas Wrigglesworth in Citibank, looking a little bit more on what is lying ahead of us.The first question is on the outlook. Does a good first quarter, as we say in our presentation, mean sequential improvement compared to fourth quarter '20?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Well, obviously, we cannot give any predictions for Q1. But what I can do, I can summarize the developments that we see. And maybe, Morten, you want to add a little bit to it. So as I said just now, we are seeing a continuous improvement in pricing in Silicon Products. And there is also a lag in realization in our contract that would hint at an improvement. We are seeing good, attractive, stable pricing in Silicones, in particular, in China, but without the peak that we have seen in November, December, which was due to lack of material. That all hints into a very good quarter. Now there is also some aspects that we need to look at, which is Chinese New Year. We have a significant exposure to Chinese New Year, that is typically a somewhat stronger impact than Christmas. So all in all, we are confident for Q1. Morten, do you want to specify it a little bit...

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

No. I think that's a very good summary. Obviously, we cannot give specific financial guidance for Q1. But you rightfully said, the market sentiment is good. We are enjoying stable prices and a solid demand in Silicones.We have also seen now over time, steadily improving prices in Silicon Products. And we know that there typically is a time lag before it hits into our price, which we will take the benefit of in Q1. And we're also happy to say that our operational excellence, our capacity utilization is stable at a high level.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Then a second question from Thomas in Citibank. Prices rose and fell through fourth quarter in Silicons. How does your realized price in early first quarter '21 compare?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Morten, do you want to answer that?

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Well, we do not particularly comment upon our realized prices, among others, for competition reasons. But clearly, we have seen prices at attractive level so far in 2021.

[Operator]

There are also questions regarding capacity and supply growth coming from also Thomas Wrigglesworth in Citi and also Charlie Webb in Morgan Stanley. How do you see supply growth outlook in China for '21 and beyond? And also, Charlie Webb is asking more if we expect any disruptions from Xinghuo and Zhongshan capacity additions in '21?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Well, it's always hard to predict how capacities really come on stream and also how much impact they really have on the market. There is a Zhongshan capacity that is coming on to the market at some point in time in the first half of this year. How that ramp-up is going to be, we don't know. And to us at this time, it looks like there is enough demand for this capacity to be digested by the market without major market disruptions. There are 2 more capacities that are assumed to come up in the second half of this year. Also that, given the current market sentiment, given the growth that we see in the market, we are not overly concerned about these new capacities that are coming up.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Maybe we should also add that even though supply is certainly increasing in China, there is no increase in supply outside China. As a matter of fact, Momentive has announced that they will close down their upstream plant in Waterford, New York, U.S.A. So we believe that if you look at the total of new capacity in China, and as a matter of fact, marginal reduction in capacity outside China, the global supply-demand balance in silicones will be well balanced going forward.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

We have some questions regarding CapEx going into '21 and beyond. First, Andreas Bertheussen in Kepler is asking if you are able to fund the 2 growth initiatives in France, the OFS, and in China, the low viscosity silicones, from your current strategic CapEx and also Truls Engene in SEB and Charlie Webb in Morgan Stanley is asking for CapEx expectations in '21 versus 2020?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Yes. Maybe I'll start on the 2 specialization and growth initiatives. They are, relatively speaking, small investments. OFS is a low double-digit US million -- US dollar million number and low viscosity fluids is RMB 100 million, that we can fund in the context of our strategic CapEx. Do you want to talk a bit more in general about CapEx?

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

No. Yes, I think we should put it into 2 categories on normal reinvestments. We will stick to our policy, our financial target, keep that between 80% and 90% of depreciation amortization, that's approximately NOK 1.5 billion. Strategic growth investments, of course, that depends on opportunities, and we are very happy and lucky that we are well positioned in business segments, particularly Silicones, where we see a number of growth initiatives and a number of specialization initiatives.So we cannot give any more specific guiding that we -- then that we will carefully, let's say, evaluate all opportunities.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Related to kind of CapEx and reinvestments, Andreas Bertheussen in Kepler is asking if you can explain the 16% increase in depreciation in the fourth quarter? And if that is the new run rate, going forward, the depreciations in the fourth quarter were NOK 479 million?

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Well, clearly, depreciation has increased because we have invested in our assets. And of course, that increase is the basis for depreciation, but we have also invested into new assets like Polysil, et cetera. So yes, from the top of mind, I don't see any one-off items in Q4, and I think that is a good proxy also for depreciation going forward.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

[indiscernible] in Arctic is asking for raw material price inflation into 2021, increased raw material prices, if you can comment on that?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Well, of course, the positive market sentiment also translates into somewhat higher raw material prices. Important raw material for Silicones is silicon, and we see in Silicon Products already that we have higher pricing, of which we benefit, but also other raw materials are increasing in price. However, so far, we have been able to overcompensate increases in raw material prices by price increases on our side.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

A couple of questions related to volumes and sales volumes, both Thomas Wrigglesworth in Citibank is touching on that in asking about what drove the spike in prices in the fourth quarter silicones? And also Andreas Bertheussen is asking and talking about record sales volumes for most business units. And if that is driven by a unique demand situation? Or if that can be expected as a sustainable volume also going forward?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Well, maybe I'll start with the price spike in China in November, December. That really was an extraordinary market situation in which there was a partially real, partially perceived shortage of material in the market. Due to disruptions, due to the ramping up of demand, that has driven prices up. And then there was this fire in 1 silicones plant, which, as a single event, also didn't disrupt supply too much, but that has created this sentiment that prices would go up. And then in particular, in this China commercial environment, you see the spike. So that was an unusual one-off that sometimes happens, but it's not something that would indicate a trend. What indicates a trend is that we are sustainably on a higher level of DMC prices above RMB 20,000 per ton, that looks, appears stable and is continuing. The spike was really a one-off out of a combination of factors and to perceived shortage of material in the market.Now the high sales volumes that we are seeing, in general, it's a bit hard to say, but it looks like there is real demand that really drives the high sales volumes. There is definitely also a bit of restocking going on, on our customer side, but fundamentally, also if you look at end consumers, if you look at automotive, if you look at steel, there is very strong demand. And at this point in time, we have no reason to see that declining in the near future.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Thank you. And then I think we will wrap up this session with the question related to Chinese New Year. We are entering the Year of the Ox tomorrow, but the question is more on if we can clarify Chinese New Year comment on the basis of last year when we had lockdown at the start of the COVID-19. So I guess the question is a little bit more, how do we see the impact of Chinese New Year this year compared to last year and maybe some effects?

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

So as I said earlier, like Christmas in the western world, but a bit stronger, Chinese New Year always leads to a reduction in demand because most companies will be closed. At least for a few days, demand will be reduced, and we will see that impact. We will also reduce our capacity for a few days. Compared to what we have seen last year with the lockdowns due to the COVID-19 crisis, we expect the impact this year to be much less than what we have seen last year. On average, it looks like shutdowns are going to be much shorter than last year, really just limited to the holidays. The market sentiment for the restart after Chinese New Year is good, even though there was a bit of uncertainty as always, but market sentiment is good. So at this point in time, it looks to us that we will have the disruption that we are used to from previous years, but by far, not to the extent that we have seen last year.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

So thank you very much, Michael, and thank you very much, Morten. That concludes the first quarter -- fourth quarter presentation 2020 for Elkem. And thank you all for participating.

[Michael Koenig, Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you very much.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you.