Elkem ASA

OSE:ELK

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q2

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

[Presentation]Good morning, and welcome to Elkem's second quarter results presentation. We hope you enjoyed our short video introduction this morning. My name is Odd-Geir Lyngstad. I'm responsible for Investor Relations here in Elkem. Most of you have probably noticed that we have a change in corporate management in Elkem, and Helge Aasen will act as our interim CEO, and he will also take us through the first part of this presentation. CFO Morten Viga will then take us through market, financials and outlook. We will then take questions after the presentation. And with that, I give the word to you, Helge.

[Helge Aasen, Interim Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you very much, Odd-Geir. And good morning, everyone. I guess you had not expected to see me back here so soon, and it certainly came as a surprise to me, too. But nevertheless, it's good to be back and especially to have the opportunity to report all-time high operating income for Elkem with NOK 7.3 billion for the quarter with an EBITDA of close to NOK 1.4 billion and an EBITDA margin of 19%. Elkem is delivering a strong quarterly result, and this is despite planned maintenance stops in Silicones, both in China and France. We have very strong market conditions in all major regions. And the 2 important strategic expansion projects in Silicones in China and the battery pilot plant has commenced, and construction has started and pilot operations are ongoing. The financial position is strong and the capital increase in April, combined with the good financial results, provides a very good platform for further growth. The former CEO, Michael Koenig, resigned from Elkem on April -- on June 30, and I have been asked by the Board to step in as Interim CEO. And we are in very good markets. The outlook is also good with strong demand -- underlying demand and very attractive conditions. After having served in Elkem for most of my career, I have to say it was an honor to be asked to step in and contribute in this transition period. The Board has initiated the process to find a new CEO, and I will then act during that period. I think it's important to say that the Elkem strategy remains firm. My main focus will be to keep up speed and execution and momentum in the important different initiatives that are going on in Elkem. And I would like to take you into some more details, especially on the 2 very important strategic projects in -- with the silicones expansion in China and our initiative in battery materials. The Silicones Xinghuo expansion is a very important platform for Elkem to develop our downstream positions in Asia and an essential part of Elkem's specialization strategy. The construction has started, and the cornerstone for the project was laid in April. The project is scheduled to take 3 years. And this is also providing a low-cost platform for our further downstream growth, and the volume represented by the expansion will have an EBITDA margin of more than 35%. We also will achieve enhanced environmental performance based on lower emissions. It will be lower raw materials usage and reduced waste as a result of new technology. We will achieve a better product quality, better purity and improved properties. This will strengthen Elkem's position in the main markets, and the Asia Pacific market is the highest-growing region with an expected rate -- growth rate of about 7% this year. And Elkem is now well placed with its Silicones operation in China, Korea and a future very big market, India. So supporting the specialization strategy, this project will provide high-purity products, which is important in order to penetrate demanding end markets. We will introduce a high portion of linears, which is important for home and personal care products, replacing cyclics. And we will also achieve higher -- or improved shelf life, which will enable us to reach a wider group of customers with longer travel distance. And better access to byproducts will also provide a robust supply chain and enable us to reach more customers. Then the battery materials pilot plant is now in operation in Kristiansand and will provide the design basis for an industrial-scale project. I had the opportunity to spend half a day at the pilot plant in Kristiansand last week, and it's a very impressive work that's going on. I think Elkem's ambitions to take a leading position in this fast-growing market for advanced battery materials has come off with a very good start. Vianode is established as a new company and also a brand for production of these very highly sustainable battery materials. And this is an environmentally friendly process compared to the conventional technology and will reduce total emissions by as much as 90%. We have qualification processes ongoing with potential customers, and those discussions and work has reached advanced levels. We're talking to both battery manufacturers and automotive players. A fast-track option is now being considered. This will enable us to enter the market earlier and also enable us to take market positions, which is very important in a market that's growing this fast. The exact timing for the financial investment decision is still pending, and the ongoing process with potential partners is coordinated with this development and key milestones of Vianode. If you look at the expected growth in the global lithium-ion battery market, it's expected to end -- to represent more than 3,000 gigawatt hours in 2030. And to put that into perspective,1 85-kilowatt hour Tesla contains 54 kilograms of anode material. So there is a tremendous demand growth in this area, and we think Elkem, with its very sustainable energy source in Norway, will have a great opportunity in this market. So I think with that, I'll leave it to you, Morten, to take us through the rest.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you very much, Helge, and good morning, everybody. Let me continue with ESG, which always is a key priority for Elkem. And let's be clear, we have the ambition to have world-class performance in all dimensions of this area. And that's why we have set clear targets and clear programs both within the environmental, the social and the governance dimensions. And we are making progress. Let me take the opportunity to mention a few of the milestones now within the environmental side. This week, we have not only seen the new EU Fit for 55 program, but we are also seeing now official announcements from China. They're introducing new emission trading programs, and we are seeing that this is coming high on the agenda all across the world. And our starting point is very good. In 2020, Elkem received an A rating from CDP, the Carbon Disclosure Project, which is the leading NGO in this area. And that ranks us among the world's top 5% companies on climate management. This quarter, we announced a new investment of NOK 140 million in our ferrosilicon plant in Rana, and this is an important milestone in our strategy to use more biogenic carbon in our production and, hence, reduce fossil CO2 emissions. Our pilot plant for a new biocarbon technology in Canada is progressing well, and we expect to start operations in January '22. And we have also recently announced now new studies for carbon capture business at smelters in Norway and also in Iceland, comprising both carbon capture storage solutions but also carbon capture utilization solutions. Very challenging projects but certainly very interesting. And we will make sure that potential projects are both environmentally and financially sustainable. A key element in our strategy is specialization. And this is very much based on R&D and innovation, differentiating us from competition. One milestone this quarter was that we opened our brand-new silicones R&D hub in Lyon in France. We call it ATRiON. It's short for atrium and innovation. It will host our 120-person R&D center in France. And the investment amounts to NOK 250 million. This will give us a totally new capability to drive innovation and R&D within circular economy, within digitalization, within consumer goods, living comfort and new materials for energy and mobility. We also have other very exciting news from the specialization areas. We have just recently established a JV with a new start-up, which is then developing together a groundbreaking technology and new solutions for 3D printing based on high-end advanced silicones materials. We have acquired a new plant, a new business for organo-functional silicones in France. This will give us a totally new position within the organo-functional silicones area, which really takes the best both from organic and inorganic chemistry. We later plan to roll that out also in other parts of the world. We are investing in a new plant for low-viscosity silicones fluids, which will open up new opportunities, new products for personal care applications in China, which is a fast-growing market. And we are progressing very well in investments -- or for our investment projects in medical silicones for long-term implants in the U.S. That's also high-end specialization. One other example of our specialization strategy is tailor-made products for electric vehicles. We see a constantly accelerated transformation of the automotive industry from combustion engine cars to electric vehicles. And this is really good news for Elkem, and it provides a very attractive growth platform. Because an EV, it contains approximately 4x more silicones compared to traditional combustion engine cars. And the sale of EVs, as illustrated to the right-hand side, is projected now to grow significantly towards 2030. In the EU, we are expected to grow from approximately 1 million units in 2021 to 3.3 million units in 2025, representing a market share of approximately 25%. In China, we are at approximately 10% -- or EV makes up approximately 10% of the automotive production in 2021. That is a significant increase from 2020, and it's accelerating very, very fast. And if you look at our own numbers, we are very happy to see that our own sales of products to EVs, it increased by 21% from '19 to '20. And this year, it will increase even more, by almost 50%. So this is very interesting, and Elkem is very well positioned. Our general market view is clearly positive, and we see a strong development in several key sectors. Of course, all major economies in the world contracted in 2020 during the pandemic, but we are now seeing a strong and good recovery in all major regions. In EU, we expect a GDP growth around 4% in '21. And in the U.S. and in the Chinese economies, we expect a GDP growth around 6%. And we particularly see this recovery in the sectors of construction and automotive, both sectors being very important to Elkem. The global automotive industry continues its strong recovery, and the sales numbers in April and May were approaching the pre-COVID-19 levels despite the ongoing microchip crisis or at least challenges and also the constraints that we are seeing in the supply -- in the logistics supply chains. And there is also a general upward pressure on material prices, which, of course, we benefit from. If we look at the various segments and start with Silicones, we see that the market conditions remain very attractive. The global silicones prices have remained at very attractive levels throughout the second quarter. We have seen DMC prices coming up and stabilizing at an area of around RMB 30,000 per tonne for the reference product, DMC. This is both driven by good demand but also a tight supply situation, which also was impacted by an accident among -- or with one of our competitors in China. The demand is strong, and we expect it to remain strong. And most producers in China are operating at full capacity. We do get questions about new capacity, and we expect that further capacity into the market will be rather limited. There may be some projects coming into the market towards the end of the year. But our position is very good, and we are very well positioned with strong market position, both in Europe, in the U.S. and in China, based on a fully integrated global business model. Now if we continue to our Silicon Products segment, we also here see a very tight supply/demand balance, resulting in continued price increases. And during Q2, we have seen EU silicon prices coming up 9%, and we have seen ferrosilicon prices coming up 15% from the end of Q1 to Q2. This is also due to high demand, limited supply both from, let's say, the Western countries but also limited supply from countries outside North America and Europe. In China, we see that silicon prices have also spiked, and this is driven by, of course, good demand but also driven by energy curtailments, high energy prices. I think it's also worth noting that the Chinese government has increased the export tax for ferroalloys by 5% to 25%. And this is one more element in a pattern we see, that the Chinese government, they try to limit, to discourage export, and we also think over time maybe production, of energy-intensive products, which, of course, will be a key element in also their program to cut CO2 emissions. And for Elkem, this could be good news given our strong position in the Western world. The market balance is expected to remain tight going forward. The drought in Brazil, where the entire ferrosilicon and silicon metal industry is based on hydropower, can be an important factor as it may hamper the production of silicon metal and ferrosilicon during the rest of the year and into 2022. For Carbon Solutions, we also see a further improvement in market conditions, but we also see increasing raw material prices. Global steel production has shown very strong recovery since Q2 last year. And year-on-year, we are up 18%. Having said that, of course, last year's steel production was hampered by the pandemic. Now we see a positive development in all major regions except India in Q2, which, of course, still have a major problem with the pandemic. If we move on to the financial numbers. The headline is clearly another strong quarter driven by both good markets but also by attractive market positions. For the third consecutive quarter, we reported all-time high operating revenues, more than NOK 7.3 billion. That's significantly above last year's Q2 driven both by Silicones but particularly by higher revenues within the Silicon Products division. Our EBITDA amounted to almost NOK 1.4 billion, representing an EBITDA margin of 19%. As you may recall, that's towards the upper limit of our target corridor of 15% to 20% EBITDA margin. This is a good improvement versus Q1 this year, and it's certainly almost a doubling -- or it's more than a doubling of the EBITDA versus Q2 2020. And once again, the big positive swing from Silicon Products and from Silicones. For your benefit, we have, as always, included a summary of the main financial numbers. And once again, the headline is good EBITDA and strong financial ratios. In the EBITDA of NOK 1,371 million, we have a positive impact from our currency hedging programs of NOK 48 million. A stronger NOK gives a, let's say, in itself a weaker competitive position for the Norwegian smelters, but it gives a gain on the FX hedging programs. Our productivity improvement program or headcount reduction program moves along according to plan. We have now realized annual saving effects of NOK 260 million, and we are committed to deliver the target NOK 350 million by the end of 2021. Other items, NOK 18 million. Net financial items, minus NOK 70 million. Normal interest expenses of minus NOK 60 million, in line with our guidance. And net currency losses of minus NOK 6 million. Taxes for the quarter, minus NOK 171 million, giving a tax rate of 22%. That's also in line with our guiding of 20%, 20-plus percent. If we look at the Silicones financials, strong and stable market conditions is the headline. Our operating income was almost NOK 3.6 billion. That's up 15% from the second quarter 2020. It is -- this is -- increase is explained by predominantly higher sales price. As you may recall, we had maintenance stops this quarter, both in China and in France, which hampered production and also hampered sales volumes. Our EBITDA for the quarter was NOK 573 million, representing an EBITDA margin of 16%. The EBITDA in nominal terms is 150% higher than last year clearly due to higher sales prices, which is partly offset by higher raw material costs. But we are also developing very nicely in terms of mix effects, more specialty products and also good development in other costs. And as I said, the result in Q2 this year was impacted, as we guided last quarter, by the planned maintenance stops in Xinghuo and in our French operations. And these maintenance stops had a total EBITDA impact of minus NOK 150 million for the quarter. Now if we move on to Silicon Products. Also here, good results, which do reflect strong markets but also very good operational performance. Total operating income of NOK 3.35 billion. That's up 34% from second quarter last year. Certainly higher sales prices and also higher sales volumes. Our EBITDA amounted to NOK 672 million. That is an improvement of 83% versus last year. And the EBITDA margin this quarter amounted to 20%. And that is a good level and a good improvement versus Q1 also. We do see stable sales volumes. We are basically sold out, and we are trying to direct as much as possible all our production into attractive specialty segments. Then let's have a look at the Carbon Solutions division, our smallest reporting segment but certainly our most stable in terms of financial profitability. And it also delivers this quarter operating income of NOK 506 million. That's up 5% versus last year. Our EBITDA is quite stable this quarter of NOK 118 million. That's in line with last year and also pretty much in line with Q1 this year. And this is really a characteristic of this division. Very strong market positions, very stable margins at a high level. You will note a small dip in margins this quarter mainly due to higher raw materials, which we have not yet been fully able to push over into higher sales prices, but we're working on that. Our general financial position and our balance sheet is really rock solid. Our earnings per share for the quarter amounted to almost NOK 1, NOK 0.98 for the quarter and NOK 2.15 year-to-date. And this is clearly a very strong improvement due to -- versus last year due to, of course, improvements in the underlying profitability. Total equity now amounts to NOK 16 billion. That is an improvement of NOK 3.4 billion compared to year-end 2020. Our equity ratio amounts to 46%. And this improvement is explained both by very strong profit year-to-date of NOK 1.3 billion but of course also explained by the capital increase that we had in April amounting to almost NOK 2 billion. Furthermore, if we look into our debt situation, we have seen a significant reduction in debt and in the leverage. Our net interest-bearing debt was NOK 5.6 billion as per end of Q2. Our leverage ratio, which was an area of I wouldn't say concern but an area of focus during last year, has come down significantly and is currently at 1.4x the last 12 months' EBITDA. So it's very solid now in the target range of 1 to 2x EBITDA. The debt maturities are very well managed. We did do a -- we did issue new bond loans in February this year amounting to NOK 1.25 billion. It was very well received in the market. We are looking into refinancing more of the debt later this year as we see the market conditions and also the credibility of the Elkem is very strong. The debt maturities in China that you will see in 2021, it mainly consists of local working capital financing, which is regularly rolled over. Very strong cash flow both during Q1 and Q2. And in Q2, the cash flow from operations amounted to more than NOK 900 million, clearly driven by very strong underlying EBITDA, but we have also focused very much on working capital management, on commercial management, on accounts receivables -- payables and also to step up on inventory management. And this has given very, very good results. Our investments ex M&A amounted to NOK 552 million in the second quarter, slightly higher than the corresponding quarter in 2020. The reinvestments were NOK 339 million. That amounts to 73% of depreciation and amortization. That's slightly lower than the target corridor of 80% to 90%. But I think that during the year, that will level out. And the strategic investments amounted to NOK 213 million, primarily focused on strategic growth areas, silicon -- mainly in silicones and also the battery materials projects. So let's finish with the outlook for the third quarter 2021. And we clearly have a positive market view, and we observe strong market sentiments across all 3 divisions. For silicones, the market momentum is clearly very strong. Prices are at high levels in China and are expected to further increase in Europe and in the U.S., where we have a more specialized product portfolio and where there is a longer time lag for price increases. Having said that, I think it's fair to say that we do not expect the current price level for commodities in China to be sustainable, but we don't also -- we don't see any, let's say, immediate reduction in prices. The market prices for silicon- and ferrosilicon-based products are also stable at a high level due to tight market conditions, strong demand and limited supply and also excellent cost positions for Elkem. There may be a negative seasonality impact following the European summer vacation, but we don't expect that to be of a big significance this year. The Carbon Solutions products continue to benefit from strong steel and ferroalloys markets. But of course, we also here see rising raw material costs. So while clearly being positive on the market outlook, we do also observe that there is a general cost increase, and there are constraints in global logistics and in raw material supplies. So I think that summarizes the Q2 presentation, and I guess then we are ready for questions. Thank you.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

That's good. There are some questions here, and I'll start with a question from [ Michael Constantino ]. He congratulates Elkem with excellent results but asks if we can explain the reasons for the sudden resignation of Michael Koenig from his position as CEO and the potential consequences for the future development of Elkem.

[Helge Aasen, Interim Chief Executive Officer]

It was announced yesterday that Michael Koenig will assume the role of CEO in a European basic chemicals company called Nobian. So I think that explains why he left. For Elkem, I think this is not going to have any impact. Elkem's strategy remains firm, and the Board is now in the process of finding a new CEO. And in the meantime, we will make sure that all the projects and all good work streams are in good speed and execution.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Then we have a question from [ Kyle ] in Citi. He asks about the battery materials project. The battery materials operations may be fast tracked, as we mentioned. And the question is, what is the range of time lines for our base and fast-tracked scenarios?

[Helge Aasen, Interim Chief Executive Officer]

Yes, I can start with that. I think we hope to take a decision on the fast-track project this fall. It represents a volume of 5,000 tonnes at the Herøya site and will enable us to enter the market faster and also, I think, provide a platform for future product and technology development. The decision of the big industrial project is still a bit early to be very specific. But an ambition to be in the market around 2025, I think, is what we aim at.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Thank you for that. And then from Charlie Webb in Morgan Stanley. He asks about capacity expansions in silicones, and he asks if we can share our views on capacity expansion in silicones this year and next.

[Helge Aasen, Interim Chief Executive Officer]

Morten?

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Sure. The capacity expansions that have happened so far this year are in line with expectations. All capacity expansions are happening in China. We have seen expansions from [ Xinghuo ], from [indiscernible] -- [indiscernible]. We saw one expansion from [ Hongxuan ] and we have also seen a second one from [ Hongxuan ], in [ Xinzhuang ], where they've had an accident. And we do not expect any significant new capacity coming on stream this year. So things are moving on in line with expectations. And so far, the market absorbs the new capacity very well.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Then another question from [ Kyle ] in Citi. It's about the silicones utilization rates. And the question is if we anticipate an above-average silicones utilization rate in second half of this year to recoup some of the lost operations as a result of the shutdown.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Now I think with current prices, obviously, all players are trying to optimize and maximize production as much as possible. So basically, although the official statistics are around 90%-plus utilization rate, for all practical purposes, there is 100% utilization rate because at any time, there needs to be some capacity out for maintenance. So it is a very tight market, and we expect it to remain so.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

And then there are 2 remaining questions, both related to the forecast for the third quarter, so I think we will take them combined. There are questions from [ Kyle ] in Citibank and Charlie Webb in Morgan Stanley. There is a lag of DMC pricing coming into -- is there a lag of DMC prices coming into Elkem's numbers? And should we, therefore, expect 3Q silicones to be strongly -- stronger sequentially despite -- I must see the -- "despite the sequential volumes?" And also, do we expect the high prices in third quarter? And are there ongoing healthy demand and offset by seasonal effects and inflation to -- or do we expect the third quarter EBITDA to be at the second quarter level or higher? Yes.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

I wouldn't be more specific on -- than what I was during the presentation, but I can elaborate on the time lag in silicones. There is no significant time lag in our silicones prices in China. The commodity part of the silicones market in China is a very much spot market where price changes hit quite quickly into our numbers. In silicon products, there is a time lag in Europe, which we have talked about previously, approximately 1 to 2 months for ferrosilicon and 4 months for silicon metal.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad]

Very good. It doesn't seem to be any more questions, so I guess that concludes the second quarter results presentation for Elkem. Thank you very much to Helge and to Morten.

[Helge Aasen, Interim Chief Executive Officer]

Thank you.

[Morten Viga, Chief Financial Officer]

Thank you very much.