Elkem ASA

OSE:ELK

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q1

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Good morning. My name is Odd-Geir Lyngstad, and I'm responsible for Investor Relations in Elkem. I have the pleasure of welcoming you to Elkem's First Quarter Results Presentation. With me today, I have CEO, Helge Aasen; and CFO, Morten Viga. Helge Aasen will take us through the business update and the outlook for the second quarter. And CFO, Morten Viga, will present the financials for the first quarter. We will open for questions after Morten and Helge's presentations.

And with that, I hand over to CEO, Helge Aasen.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you, Odd-Geir, and good morning, everyone. It's a pleasure for me to present another good quarterly result for Elkem. We reported revenues in the first quarter, close to NOK 10 billion and an EBITDA margin of 16% and we think this is quite satisfactory given the challenging market conditions we're in. Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions continued to deliver strong results based on superior cost and market positions.

The situation for the Silicones division, however, has been more demanding. The weak result in the fourth quarter last year has continued into the first quarter this year with a weak market sentiment in the EU and in Americas. And this is combined with a slower recovery and overcapacity in the Chinese market. Due to the weak market conditions for Silicones, we're taking actions to optimize cost and production. We're also looking into investment levels and we'll put on hold projects that do not deliver immediate cost improvements.

For Silicon Products, the demand is also weak. We have taken the opportunity to move forward the already planned maintenance work. And this applies to 2 plants in Norway, Thamshavn and Rana and include maintenance that has been scheduled within the next 12 to 18 months. So with this work completed, we will be in a very good position when markets will improve again.

Access to electrical power at long-term competitive terms is, as you all know, a key factor for our energy-intensive part of the business. And during the first quarter, we have signed new power contracts in Norway. This is related to the plant in Salten, Rana and Bremanger. These contracts are at competitive terms and will provide stability and predictability until 2035.

Moving on to ESG. We give an update on this work in every meeting. We have a broad approach here from -- and it spans from keeping our employees safe to contributing against climate change. We are steadily improving our ESG work and are rated among the world's leading companies.

Last year, Elkem was awarded A- both on climate and forest. And we also achieved a B score on water from CDP. Safety is always on top of our agenda, and we're happy to see that the injury rate has come down compared with 2021, a year, which was impacted by the COVID pandemic. But we are not satisfied. We are pursuing a 0 vision with regard to injuries, and we are now rolling out an improved EHS system in order to revitalize and strengthen our efforts in this area.

We are, however, happy to report that Elkem is delivering on its key climate targets. One of our most important parameters is to reduce the product carbon footprint, and which is the average emission per tonne of produced material, including then Scope 1 and 2, and Scope 3 to gate. The product carbon footprint was reduced by 7% in 2022, which is a good result and mainly then explained by increasing sourcing of lower CO2 footprint raw materials.

We've also brought an update on our strategy plan. And -- it's based on dual growth and green leadership. The ambition is to improve and grow our position to become among the top 3 players in silicones industry worldwide. In silicon-based materials and carbon solutions, we already have strong positions and the target is to be a #1 player in the Western world.

To achieve these goals, we target balanced growth in all divisions, both upstream and downstream as well as geographically. Dual-play comes from the fact that we operate fully independent value chains, integrated value chains, both in the East and in the West. And we think this has proven to be a robust business model, especially in the volatile markets that we have seen during the recent period. We will continue to build on this dual structure in order to limit our exposure also to trade barriers and logistics challenges. The target is to grow by more than 5% per year and deliver an EBITDA margin of at least 15% through the business cycle.

Green leadership is also an important part of the strategy, meaning that we will be in the forefront on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and growing our supplies to the green transition in order to enable electrification and transition to more renewable energy. An example of green transition is clearly related to electrical vehicles and hybrids. We have mentioned in previous presentations that electrification represents a substantial growth potential for Elkem.

We already have a strong position in the EV, electrical vehicle, market and our supply of tailor-made solutions to EV has grown by 40% in 2022 and represents now a 5% of the revenues in the Silicones division. And these products mainly consist of solutions to batteries and cables. In addition, we are delivering a wide range of other products to the automotive sector. This includes silicon to aluminum profiles, advanced foundry alloys and other silicones materials. We are market leader in textile coatings in the liner of airbags to mention an important one.

A very important reason behind our focus on EV is clearly the higher specific consumption of silicones in this segment. An electrical vehicle consumes approximately 4x more silicones than a conventional fossil vehicle. The production of EVs and hybrids have been estimated to 16 million units in 2022 and is expected to grow to 35 million units in 2025 and 56 million by 2030. So significant growth is expected also going forward. And our plan is to grow our supplies in line with this growth. A significant part of this is happening in China, where we are very well positioned with production and advanced research and innovation capabilities.

We also brought an update on the European Green Deal and what this could mean for Elkem. The potential here is to supply this transition with critical raw materials. And it's still a bit unclear how the European Green Deal will impact Elkem, but the plans are ambitious. They include targets for clean technologies such as solar energy.

The manufacturing of solar panels require both silicon and silicones, silicon for the cells and silicones for the panels. And the EU strategy is to install more than 320 gigawatt of new capacity by 2025 and almost 600 gigawatt by 2030. And if this is successful, it could result in a significant demand increase for silicon and silicones. The EU's target is to ensure investment opportunities, secure local supply chains and retain more value in Europe. So with this growth estimate, it's expected that a building up of this industry in Europe could deliver GDP of up to EUR 60 billion and create more than 400,000 new jobs.

The European Critical Raw Materials Act aims to significantly increase and diversify critical raw materials supply and silicon has been defined as a critical raw material on this EU list. This further emphasizes -- it's important as a strategic raw material in the green transition.

Now back to strategy and specialization, we continue our efforts in this area through product differentiation and with the aim of increasing more stability in margins through the cycle. Through our research and innovation centers in Norway, France and China, we focus on products and services that are tailor-made and unique to customer needs. On the map to the right, you see some of our ongoing specialization projects, which are important for positioning Elkem for the future and where we have high expectations for value creation. These projects are addressing markets with high potential, building on already strong market positions. And to mention some of them, specialty silicon, high-quality carbon products and silicones for end-user markets like health care, consumer and packaging, transportation and construction.

In silicones, 25% of our sales in 2022 came from products that have been developed within the last 5 years. And I think that's a very good indicator on our commitment to innovation as well as our ability to develop new and innovative products. I mentioned in my introduction that we have secured more power for -- in Norway. And access to competitive energy is of key importance for obvious reasons to our upstream metallurgical processes. We are well positioned already, having secured more than 80% of our consumption until the end of 2026.

We are constantly evaluating the market in order to maintain an attractive and predictable cost position. And we're happy to inform you that we have entered into new power contracts in Norway during the first quarter, which will cover supplies to Bremanger, Rana and Salten. These new contracts expire in 2034 and 2035 and have a total volume of up to 520 gigawatt hours per year, which represents about 15% of our total annual consumption. If you look at our coverage after 2026, we have about 50% covered in 2030 just to give you an idea of how that is developing towards 2035.

Now moving on to growth strategy and an update on some of the ongoing projects. Over the past 2 years, we have announced projects that will deliver top line growth and improve our cost positions and quality improvements to support downstream specialization. These projects are on schedule with regard to time and costs and will start up now in 2024. In China, our Xinghuo silicones facility will increase capacity by approximately 50% and is expected to generate annual sales of more than NOK 4 billion.

In France, the silicones capacity will be increased by approximately 25%, a large part of this will be converted into specialty products for the European and American U.S. markets. This expansion is expected to generate about NOK 2 billion in increased revenue. As we announced last quarter, we are also now expanding our Carbon Solutions business in Brazil by increasing pitch binder capacity with approximately 40%. This is smaller but will generate an additional sales of approximately NOK 300 million.

Now moving on to markets and starting with silicones. The market sentiment has remained weak in the first quarter. It's impacted by weak macroeconomic situation in the U.S. and Europe. The GDP growth estimates have been revised down and there is a risk still that major economies could move into recession. Certain specialty grades such as EV, health care and consumer products are still holding up quite well but market conditions for construction, in particular, and other commodity-grade silicones have been weak.

The Chinese market seemed to improve at the Chinese New Year, and prices initially started moving up, but recovery has been slow and the demand increase has not been sufficient to support the price recovery. It's also explained by overcapacity in the Chinese market with more limited export opportunities which is a result of weaker demand globally. The DMC prices in China, which are illustrated on this chart to the right, decreased towards the end of the quarter and have continued to slide also into the second quarter this year and is now at a level of just above CNY 15,000 per tonne.

In silicons and ferrosilicons, markets have also been challenging, but we continue to outperform our competitors. The slow demand during the latter part of 2022 has carried over into this year. And as you can see from the 2 graphs to the right, the market prices for silicon and ferrosilicon have only slightly decreased and still remain at high levels, if you compare with historical levels. So as a result, significant production capacity has been idle in Europe and current market prices are still not sufficient to cover marginal cost on power and raw materials for many players.

Also, the Chinese silicon market is weak, and prices are coming down. Despite this development, exports out of China was reduced or down during the quarter. The demand for carbon products varies by region. It's underlying driven by steel for alloys and aluminum. We have no reference prices in this market and most producers are regionally-based.

During the quarter, the global steel production was estimated up 7% compared with the last quarter last year. This increase was driven by China, which was estimated up by around 11%. The demand in Europe and North America was more stable. So despite somewhat stronger steel markets, the demand for carbon products has been relatively weak in the first quarter, particularly so in Europe. But our global market presence provides stability due to regional market differences. Raw material costs are stable but at high levels also here historically compared with historical levels.

So I think with this, that ends my business update. So I'll give the word to our CFO, Morten Viga, who will take us through the financials. Morten, please?

[Morten Viga, executive]

Thank you, Helge, and good morning, everybody. So it is once again a pleasure to present good quarterly result, particularly given the quite challenging market conditions that we see and experience every day. Above all, Silicon Products and Carbon Solutions continued to deliver very good results, while clearly, silicones delivered a weak result also in this quarter.

The strong results for Silicon Products are particularly due to very strong market positions and superior cost position enabling us to run at a significantly higher capacity utilization compared to most competitors. The operating income in the first quarter was close to NOK 10 billion, which was down from Q1 2022 due to significantly lower market prices in Silicones and Silicon Products. The EBITDA amounted to almost NOK 1.6 billion, giving an EBITDA margin of 16% for the quarter. This was in line with Q4 last year, but clearly down from the very strong quarter -- first quarter last year.

The reduction was largest for our Silicon Products despite the fact that the division also this quarter delivered a very strong result. But of course, the starting point last year was even stronger. The impact from elimination and other was modest in Q1 '23 with minus NOK 36 million. However, it's a quite significant change versus Q1 '22, where we had high eliminations from realized profit divisions on intercompany sales on goods that were not sold externally. So the eliminations and other in Q1 '23 show an improvement of NOK 378 million versus last year.

As always, we have included one slide with the main financial numbers and ratios. I will not go into the details on all of them. But let's take a few highlights. As mentioned, the EBITDA amounted to NOK 1.565 million, giving an EBITDA margin of 16%. There are no significant one-offs in the quarter, but we have some currency effects due to the weakening of the Norwegian kroner versus almost all other currencies. This is resulting in some gains and some losses.

The EBITDA included losses of NOK 86 million on the currency hedging program that we have in place, and this is reported in the other segment. Other items was positive with NOK 553 million mainly consisting of gains on power and currency derivatives of NOK 175 million and currency gains in working capital items of NOK 377 million, which are mainly denominated in dollar, RMB and euro and of course, then get a higher value in NOK.

The net finance income was minus NOK 109 million. Interest expenses have increased due to the recent interest rate hikes in the market and amounted to NOK 97 million for this quarter. In addition, we had a net currency loss of NOK 7 million where gains on shareholder loans in Chinese RMB have been offset by losses on loans in euro. Other financial expenses amounted to minus NOK 5 million.

The tax costs for the quarter amounted to NOK 403 million result in a tax rate of 29%. This is somewhat higher than our previous tax rates and higher than the guiding. And it's due to the fact that -- or is due to the weak results in silicones and where we do not pay tax in China and France. And we have not capitalized these tax losses. We're having a conservative approach on that.

So let's then have a look at the divisional results, and let's start with silicones. And as previously discussed, the results for the Silicones division was clearly weak in the first quarter, like it was in the fourth quarter last year. Total operating income amounted to almost NOK 4.2 billion for the quarter. This is down 20% from the first quarter in 2022. The reduction is mainly explained by lower sales prices particularly in China, where we have seen slow demand and structural overcapacity in the market.

The EBITDA was minus NOK 30 million, which was clearly significantly down from the first quarter last year but more in line with Q4 last year. The reduction is mainly explained by lower sales prices, which has been illustrated by the DMC price, which have presented. Due to the weak results, we are now accelerating and implementing new measures to reduce costs, to optimize production setup and to delay investments, which will have a positive cash impact and also a positive cost impact.

Demand is generally weak in all regions, although we have clearly seen some improvement, some recovery in China after the spring festival but still large sectors like construction are clearly on the weak side.

Let's then move to the Silicon Products division. Despite lower than the corresponding quarter of 2022, I think it's fair to say that the division delivered very solid results in Q1 this year. And we clearly continue to benefit from our superior cost positions.

Total operating income amounted to NOK 5.134 million for the quarter, which was a reduction of 20% compared to the first quarter last year. The reduction in operating income is mainly explained by lower sales prices and lower sales volumes, primarily for silicon metal but also from externally sourced material, where we had quite a significant activity last year. The EBITDA amounted to NOK 1.256 billion, corresponding to an EBITDA margin of 24%. This is still a good EBITDA margin, but the reduction versus last year is explained by lower sales prices and also somewhat lower sales volumes.

The margins are clearly still at attractive levels due to strong market positions and also fundamentally very strong cost positions, and this is also now supported by weaker NOK for the Norwegian entities. The sales volumes were down compared to Q1 last year due to underlying slow demand, weak macroeconomic sentiment in our major markets. But there has always also clearly been a destocking effect ongoing.

As already mentioned, the Carbon Solutions divisions had another strong quarter, a remarkably strong quarter given the weak market sentiment. Total operating income reached an all-time high with NOK 1.1 billion, up 53% from the first quarter last year. This is predominantly explained by higher sales prices and partly also by the weaker NOK. The EBITDA amounted to NOK 374 million for the quarter, and this is almost a doubling from the first quarter last year, and it represents an EBITDA margin of 34%. Higher EBITDA is mainly explained by higher sales prices, which partly has been countered by higher raw material costs.

As you can see, the sales volumes were lower this quarter compared to the first quarter last year. And this is once again explained by the weak sentiment in the main markets in silicon and ferroalloys and also a weaker aluminum market in the EU. But once again, we are very happy with the performance in Carbon Solutions. And I think this very good result demonstrates our superior business model in this industry.

Let's then have a look at some of Elkem's key financial ratios. The earnings per share, the EPS, was down compared to the first quarter of last year. But it's still at an attractive level with NOK 1.5 per share for the quarter. The balance sheet is still rock solid and total equity amounted to almost NOK 30 billion by the end of Q1. This is an increase of NOK 1.1 billion from year-end '22, and it gives an equity ratio of 53%.

Now adjusted for the proposed dividend payment for 2022 to be decided by the general meeting later today, where payout is expected to take place in early May, the equity ratio would have been 49%.

Our financing position is also very solid. Net interest-bearing debt is NOK 3.7 billion as per end of Q1. This is a small increase from the previous quarter partly explained by the weaker NOK as we have the major part of our debt financing in foreign currencies.

Based on the last 12 months EBITDA, this gives a debt leverage ratio of 0.3, which is marginally up from the 0.2 that we had end of 2022. And adjusted for the proposed dividend, the net interest-bearing debt would or will increase from NOK 3.7 billion to NOK 7.5 billion and that gives a leverage ratio of 0.7. Elkem's target is to have a leverage ratio of 1 to 2x EBITDA over the cycle. And as the results are expected realistically to come down compared to the very strong Q2 and Q3 results that we had last year, the leverage ratio going forward is expected to be more in line with the targets and clearly up compared to the very low levels that we saw in 2022.

Our maturity profile is also very good after the refinancing transactions that we've had in 2022. For our silicones expansion project in China, which is to be completed early next year, we have attracted very -- or we have entered into very attractive local financing with a long-term up to 10-year installment profile. In the near term, the maturities that you can see in 2023 mainly consist of working capital financing in China, which is regularly rolled over. That's how this kind of financing works in China. We see no refinancing risk in this respect.

The cash flow from operations amounted to NOK 637 million for the quarter, which is somewhat lower than the extremely strong levels that we have seen in previous quarter, but it's still a good number. The investments amounted to NOK 1.1 billion for the first quarter. This is higher than the corresponding quarter last year. But it is according to plan as the expansion projects in silicones in France and in China, they are in a very intensive phase now, and these develop according to plan.

Reinvestments amounted to NOK 330 million, this is equal to 61% of depreciation and amortization, while our target is to be between 80% to 90%. And I think we will clearly see an increase in reinvestments going forward up to a level more in line with our target corridor. The strategic investments were NOK 760 million for the quarter, mainly related, as I mentioned, through the big silicones expansion projects in China and France.

So with that, I hand the word back to Helge who will take us through the outlook for the second quarter.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you, Morten. Yes, as we've talked about, market sentiment is expected to be -- to still be weak going into the second quarter. We think we'll benefit from strong market position and robust financials. We are accelerating some planned maintenance work in order to be in a good position when markets eventually recover.

The silicones markets remain challenging. It's due to a weak sentiment in the EU and U.S. and overcapacity in China. A scheduled maintenance stop in China in May and June will impact the sales in Asia Pacific. The markets for Silicon Products are expected to be stable but weak and the maintenance stops that we talked about in Thamshavn and Rana are expected to have a modest impact on the results.

Raw material costs are coming down, particularly for reduction materials. Carbon Solutions could be impacted by lower demand but performance is expected to remain at a good level.

So that concludes our presentation today. I'd like to hand the word back to Odd-Geir, who will take us through the questions and answers.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

Thank you very much for that, Helge. And first, we would like to see if there are any questions from the audience here today. Doesn't seem to be that. And in fact, I don't have any questions either on the webcast. It's a busy morning, we know that. There are some other important industrial companies in Norway presenting today as well. So there is a tough competition. And we also know that industry peers in Europe are also presenting numbers today. So obviously, it's a busy morning for the analysts and others following our sector.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

It could also be a remarkably good presentation.

[Odd-Geir Lyngstad, executive]

It could have been a very good presentation. So let's say that this is the explanation. And with that, I think we would like to thank you all for participating. Thank you.

[Morten Viga, executive]

Thank you.

[Helge Aasen, executive]

Thank you.