Crayon Group Holding ASA

OSE:CRAYN

Earnings Call Analysis

Crayon Q4 and 2023 Performance Highlights

In Q4 2023, Crayon's gross profit surged 27% year-on-year, reaching over NOK 1.6 billion amidst robust demand for Software and Cloud Licensing, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%, despite a 5 percentage point dip due to consulting market weaknesses. The company saw a significant operating cash flow increase by $1.6 billion compared to Q4 2022. Overall, 2023 was marked by splendid growth, with a 26% increase in revenue at NOK 5.7 billion and a 10% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $919 million. The Software and Cloud business showed dramatic EBITDA growth by $274 million, while consulting faced challenges, declining by $125 million in EBITDA. Regional growth in gross profit was led by the Nordics and Europe, with APAC and MEA lagging slightly behind. Despite a receivable of $45 million pending with the Philippine government, the launch of Microsoft Copilot augurs well for the future, with an anticipated adoption rate of 15% to 25% among M365 users.

Strong Growth in Gross Profit with a 27% Year-on-Year Increase

Under the stewardship of CEO Melissa Mulholland and CFO Brede Huser, Crayon has achieved a gross profit of over NOK 1.6 billion in Q4 2023, marking a robust 27% growth compared to the previous year. This notable progress indicates a powerful growth momentum within the market.

Adjusted EBITDA Margin and Future Recovery in Consulting

The company witnessed a 5 percentage point decrease in adjusted EBITDA margins, which landed at 15%. Despite the downturn, largely attributed to a sluggish consulting market, Crayon is optimistic about improving conditions, particularly from Q2 onwards, and is prioritizing margin enhancement for its consulting and service business for 2024.

Comprehensive Regional Performance Review

Crayon has experienced gross profit growth across all territories. In the Nordics, Software and Cloud Direct saw a growth of 28%, with Europe also showing strong performance, particularly in the Software and Cloud Channel, which grew 40%. Meanwhile, APAC and MEA regions reported a 9% increase in gross profit despite mixed channel performance, and the U.S. market achieved a 12% growth, reflecting ongoing investments to bolster growth.

Challenges and Strategic Moves in Software and Cloud, and Consulting Services

Crayon's Software and Cloud Direct segment thrived with a 47% quarterly growth and an impressive adjusted EBITDA margin of 52%. The Consulting segment also grew by 25%, albeit with a negative margin, which is under strategic scrutiny to improve profitability. Additionally, the embrace of generative AI like Microsoft's Copilot is expected to further augment growth in the coming years.

Financial Sustainability Indicated by Net Working Capital Improvements

The company demonstrated formidable performance in net working capital management, achieving as low as -2.6% as a share of gross profit. With a decrease of 2 days in Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), the company underscores its commitment to continuous improvement in this area, driven by efficient and automated collection processes, and highlights the importance of strong deal governance.

Resilience Amidst Impairment and Positive Cash Flow

Crayon reported an $80 million impairment related to its franchise operations in Oman and Qatar, following failed negotiations and legal actions. Nevertheless, the company exhibited resilience with a strong cash flow from operations of $2.2 billion, a testament to its adept handling of net working capital.

Outlook for 2024: Growth and Margin Goals

Looking ahead to 2024, Crayon is aspiring for a gross profit growth between 18% to 20%, with adjusted EBITDA margins predicted to be in the range of 18% to 20% of gross profit. This reflects the company's confidence in its growth strategies and the market's receptiveness to Software and Cloud services.

Strategic Capital Expenditure Planning and Net Working Capital Targets

While CapEx will no longer be a part of the official outlook, Crayon anticipates it to fluctuate between 2.5% and 3% of gross profit based on strategic investment activities. Furthermore, they've adjusted their net working capital guidance to a more specific target of minus 15%, aligning with their medium-term ambitions amidst market variability.

Commitment to International Expansion and Efficiency

Crayon reiterates its commitment to international growth, leveraging demand across Software and Cloud, Licensing, and Advisory services. In the consulting business, the company focuses on improving profitability by optimizing workforce allocation and managing costs without expanding headcount. This approach is part of a broader strategy to enhance operational efficiency while supporting long-term market opportunities.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to Crayon's Q4 2023 Results Presentation. My name is Kjell Arne Hansen, and I'm the Head of Investor Relations. With me today presenting results for the quarter, we have our CEO, Melissa Mulholland, and our CFO, Brede Huser. [Operator Instructions] And with that, I hand it over to our CEO, Melissa.

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Thank you for joining. Crayon delivered over NOK 1.6 billion in gross profit in Q4, up 27% year-on-year, demonstrating growth momentum in the market. We continue to see a high demand for Software and Cloud Licensing procurement as companies expand their digital needs.

Adjusted EBITDA margin was 15%, down 5 percentage points due to weakness in the consulting market. We do not see a decline in customer interest and needs, rather slower decision timelines. We saw a sluggish 2023 in IT consulting and are seeing preliminary signs of improvement as companies prepare for the necessary requirements to leverage generative AI solutions, such as ChatGPT, in their productivity environment. We expect consulting to improve in Q2, while Q1 will remain challenging. It is a top priority to materialize margin improvement across our consulting and service business for 2024.

I have stated in prior quarters the importance of improving on net working capital and our commitment to do so. I am pleased to report that our efforts have demonstrated noticeable improvement in Q4, with the cash flow from operations at $2.1 billion, an improvement of $1.6 billion compared to Q4 2022. We will share the specifics of this improvement in the financial section of today's earnings presentation.

To deliver the growth ambitions for the company while increasing profitability and net working capital, we remain focused on 3 priorities: first, continuing to deliver growth by capitalizing on the strong market demand and focus for companies to expand their IT and licensing needs; second, margin improvement targeted at our consulting business; third, continuing to demonstrate net working capital improvement with focused efforts on collections, contract terms and payables.

To summarize 2023, we grew 26% year-on-year at NOK 5.7 billion, demonstrating spectacular growth as planned. We delivered adjusted EBITDA growth at 10% year-on-year at $919 million and operating cash flow up $1.2 billion year-on-year, delivering $1.3 billion. This demonstrates the resiliency of Software and Cloud in our business and the efforts put into generating cash for 2023.

Comparing 2023 to 2022, we grew our Software and Cloud business by $274 million in EBITDA, showcasing the scalability of the business model. In '23, we saw a slowdown in the consulting business with a decline of negative $125 million in EBITDA. Investing ahead of the curve has always been a key component to Crayon's growth approach, and as a result, enabled us to deliver on the gross profit ambition.

In 2023, we were opportunistic of the market conditions with the talent available and invested heavily in new resources during the first half of the year, bringing in 300 new consulting resources over 2023. Now that we have invested, we need to allow the market to catch up, and actively, we are working on measures to improve profitability. We have implemented these measures to optimize utilization through resource management and strengthen leadership with bringing in consulting expertise across a few of our key markets.

We delivered growth in gross profit across all markets in Q4. In looking at the specifics, demand in the Nordics remained strong, driven by Software and Cloud Direct, which grew 28%, while Channel also contributed to the solid performance, growing 27%. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the Nordics ended at 27%, a reduction from 35% compared to Q4 the previous year. The development is negatively impacted by weaker demand and profitability development than expected in the consulting segment. In H2, we slowed down hiring and will continue to do so in 2024 to wait for the market to catch up, which we see improved engagement going into the new year.

In Europe, Q4 gross profit grew 26% year-on-year. Growth was exceptionally strong in Software and Cloud channel with gross profit growth of 40%. Consulting also delivered a very strong quarter with 51% gross profit growth, positively impacted by strong performance in Eastern Europe. The full year for 2023 was strong with 40% gross profit growth, aligned to our focus on expanding market share in key countries.

Adjusted EBITDA in Europe ended at NOK 28 million, reflecting a margin of 8% compared to 23% in the same quarter previous year. The negative profitability performance is driven by the direct business as growth was slower than expected. In addition, profitability in Consulting was slightly below the same quarter in the previous year, driven by costs related to AI and Cloud investments as we needed to invest, as well as lower utilization.

Gross profit in APAC and MEA ended at NOK 365 million, an increase of 9%. Performance in Software and Cloud Direct was strong with gross profit growing 39%. Software and Cloud channel performance was disappointing in Q4. Gross profit declined 4%. Channel performance in the APAC region is mixed. Rhipe's Australia channel business, which represents approximately 60% of the gross profit in APAC and MEA remains healthy with a 10% growth in gross profit, while offset by weaker performance in Southeast Asia. Adjusted EBITDA ended at NOK 55 million, corresponding to a margin of 15%, down from 18% in the comparable quarter prior year. The decline is mainly driven by Channel and weaker profitability in the Consulting and service business.

In the Philippines, we continue to await a receivable of $45 million with the procurement department, called PS-DBM, for the government that engages with over 70 different organizations. As of today, there is no confirmation from PS-DBM on the timing of the payment. Microsoft continues to support our efforts to close out this matter. We will inform you as soon as there is further progress on this receivable.

Now transitioning to the U.S. Gross profit increased by 12% to NOK 166 million. The performance was driven by a strong performance in both Software and Cloud economics, delivering 11% to NOK 86 million, as well as the Direct business, which had a solid performance with 18% growth. Adjusted EBITDA ended at NOK 8 million, a margin of 5%. The U.S. business continues to execute as planned, and the margin development reflects the ongoing investments to support growth.

Software and Cloud Direct delivered a strong quarter, growing 47%. Growth was particularly strong in the Nordics with 28% growth, as well as in APAC and MEA with 39% growth. Profitability also remained strong, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 49%, a solid improvement from 44% in Q4 the prior year. Channel declined 3% in the quarter. As already mentioned in the previous slide, Channel performance in APAC and MEA impacted the overall performance, while the Nordics and Europe was strong at 27% and 40%, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA ended at 52%.

Software and Cloud Economics gross profit increased 11% to NOK 209 million, and adjusted EBITDA ended at NOK 16 million, corresponding to a margin of 8%. Growth remains healthy in both the Nordics and Europe with a growth of 18% and 17%, respectively. Also in the U.S., performance was solid, as stated previously, with a gross profit growth of 11%.

Growth in the Consulting business ended at 25%. Performance in Europe was, as mentioned, strong with 51% growth. The Nordics who represents about 60% of this gross profit in the Consulting business also contributed strongly with a growth of 18%. Margin in Consulting ended at negative 5%, down from 4% in Q4 2022. In Norway, we experienced a decrease in public sector activity compared to prior years, as budgets were held back. We invested in new resources in '23, and as mentioned, we'll continue to focus on profitability improvements on our consulting business.

And looking at market statistics, according to Gartner, in 2023, global IT spending growth decelerated to 4.8% growth in comparison to 8.7% in 2022. This was partially driven by macroeconomic concerns, as companies were refraining from consulting spend. The growth is forecasted to rebound to 7% in 2024, with 12% driven by Software and 8.7% by Services, delivering a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% from 2022 to 2027.

The emersion of generative AI will transform the way we engage in the workforce, as it creates efficiencies and time savings for companies with daily tasks such as drafting e-mails, documenting notes and sourcing data insights. Microsoft launched Copilot in November to enterprise EA customers and subsequently extended to CSP customers in January. We are proud to be one of the largest partners delivering this globally as it's a type of innovation that customers need a company like Crayon to deliver support. We are well positioned given our licensing capability, our ability to deliver services and also data in AI, we can do the entire implementation of Copilot. We have over 12 million addressable seats and expect adoption over 2024 and beyond a 15% to 25% of our M365 base.

To demonstrate a customer example, I'm pleased to share a customer win in APAC with the fourth largest law firm in Singapore, which employs over 1,000 lawyers supporting 10 countries across Asia, called Rajah and Tann Asia. To keep up with their customers' expectation, they recognize the need to explore technologies to minimize mundane tasks, like managing e-mails and numerous documents. The firm recognized large language models to be beneficial for summarizing documents and e-mails in creating meeting minutes. However, they were concerned about the security of the information. With Crayon, Crayon delivered a Copilot readiness and adoption workshop.

In these workshops, we work with the customer to identify solutions that are tailored to their needs. With the deployment of Copilot and Security, we were able to address their needs with the expansion of E5 and accelerating AI opportunities with Azure to support their production environment. This is a great example of how Copilot can provide efficiencies to everyday tasks, but it does require planning and consideration in implementation such as data policies and security.

Now with that, I will transition to Brede to walk through the financials in further details.

[Brede Huser, executive]

Thank you, Melissa. I look forward to taking all of you through the financial section of this Q4 earnings presentation. In Q4, we delivered a very solid net working capital performance. I'm very happy to see the results of the efforts we have put in to improve working capital. The results clearly shows that focus, process improvement and clear policies and routines have a positive impact.

Trade working capital ended at minus $888 million, while other working capital ended at minus $233 million, taking our net working capital to $1.1 billion. As highlighted in the slide, included in the numbers is a positive impact from extended payment term from one vendor of approximately $450 million. However, even excluding this effect, working capital performance was solid at minus $671 million.

For the full year, average net working capital, as share of gross profit, ended at minus 2.6%, which is better than the level we guided on in the previous quarter. AR ended at $7.8 billion, an increase of around 20% compared to the same quarter in the previous year, roughly in line with overall gross sales growth. AP ended at $8.7 million, an increase of 33% compared to Q4 '22. However, adjusting for the extended payment of approximately $450 million, AP grew with around 26%, which is in line with the overall growth.

We have taken several actions to improve both DSO and DPO. Our DSO declined 2 days compared to the same quarter in the prior year. As I mentioned, our efforts to strengthen collection is providing results with a significantly improved performance, and we will continue to focus on improving this going forward.

As I mentioned, I'm very happy to see the attention and focus on net working capital yielding results. This has been my priority #1 in the 5 months I have been in the company. We have implemented initiatives to improve both the AR and the AP side, the most basic but very important measure has been educating the entire company on net working capital. What does it actually mean and which processes influence this? And what can the specific individuals and departments do to contribute to improving net working capital? This was followed up by weekly reviews with the main stakeholders with clear improvement plans and targets by region.

Strong deal governance is important. We have a firm position on payment terms. Any deviation from a standard terms will end up at my desk, and I will give strong pushback to come up with alternative solutions. Efficiency and speed in the invoicing process is essential. If we do not invoice, we will not get paid. It's that simple. We continue to streamline and automate the collection process, making sure that we are on top of any overdue invoices as well as invoices that are approaching due date. Local collection starts earlier.

We have, as we mentioned earlier, to a much larger extent skewed incentives towards cash-related metrics. On the AP side, we will naturally stay compliant with our key vendors, but we will continue to use the flexibility we have within the defined limits. However, this is not a large or the main driver behind our long-term sustainable improvement. As an estimate, going from 100% payment compliance to 95% will on average equal to around $100 million in net working capital improvement, depending on seasonal variability.

Most important is a strong focus, streamlined processes and the organization. That is the basis for a sustainable improvement.

As we have already covered many of the items, I will only highlight a few important elements in the P&L. As a reminder, I would like to highlight the fact that our gross sales is $12.5 billion for this quarter and close to $50 billion for the year. This volume naturally leads to significant swings in our net working capital. Adjustments for the quarter includes share-based compensation of $16 million and earnout around $14 million relating to the acquisition of Navicle. There is also an impairment of $80 million relating to Oman and Qatar business operations. I will go through the details later in the presentation.

Interest expense increased from Q3 '23 largely due to increased market rates and because we entered Q4 with a higher utilization on the RCF and overdraft. In the balance sheet, I would like to highlight the following line items: Other current receivables include unbilled gross sales and $1.3 billion, mainly related to 1 month accrual of consumption-based sales. Also, as a reminder, this is sales for a period where we have a claim but not yet invoiced a client. Invoice is based on actual consumption. We verify consumption, then produce invoice. To be clear, this is a gross number and needs to be compared with gross sales of $12.5 billion in Q4.

Unbilled gross sales as a percentage of gross sales is 10%, which is stable development fully in line with the same quarter previous year.

Other current liabilities include accruals of $1.2 billion, mainly accruals of cost of goods sold related to consumption-based sales. Other interest-bearing debt includes supplier financing of $127 million, significantly down from Q3. Lastly, both the RCF and overdraft were undrawn at year-end.

As already mentioned, we delivered a strong cash flow from operations of $2.2 billion. This is driven by changes in net working capital. At the end of the year, we have a strong cash position and have a liquidity reserve of $2.7 billion, included undrawn credit facilities. Our net debt-to-EBITDA ratio ended at 1.3%.

As already mentioned, we have an impairment of $80 million in our reported EBITDA, and I will now take you through the details behind this slide item. At the end of 2019, Crayon entered into a franchise agreement for its business in Oman and Qatar. Franchise was the preferred option at the time, but this structure was never intended to be a long-term solution. In Q2, Crayon initiated negotiations with the franchise partner with the aim to acquire the business. These negotiations were ongoing throughout Q3. But during Q4, it became apparent that the negotiations had to center on settling outstanding balances towards Crayon Middle East.

As regulated by the agreement, Crayon transacted through the franchise partner and settled against the vendor where the end users settled against the franchise company, thereby creating a balance between Crayon Middle East and the franchisee. Due to the failed negotiations and uncertainty of remaining value in the current franchise business, the company have decided to impair the remaining net book values of $80 million.

As we have not reached an agreement and outstanding balances have not been settled, we have filed criminal charges against the franchisee. There are no other franchise agreements in the group. We do not like the structure and will avoid any similar setups in the future. Furthermore, there are no remaining liabilities beyond any costs related to the legal proceedings and any amount which might be collected will be an upside in our accounts.

Our 2024 outlook confirms our commitment to continue to grow across all markets. Gross profit growth is expected to be between 18% to 20%. As Melissa already described, we see a strong market for Software and Cloud.

When I started 5 months ago, I was given one clear priority, and that was focusing on working capital improvement. Although that will remain a key area of focus going into '24, profitability improvement and cost control is a clear priority number two. Balancing growth and profitability is always a challenge, and we will be mindful of that balance going forward.

However, as visible in the results for Q4 and 2023 as a whole, it's critical that we scrutinize our cost base. We are in the process of implementing stringent cost control processes throughout the global organization by strengthening capabilities in business and cost controlling. Having spent 2 decades in the low-cost airline industry, these are processes which I am very familiar with.

As we have repeated several times throughout the presentations, there are efficiency measures we can implement in the organization and in consulting in particular that will yield results. We expect these efforts to materialize gradually going forward. And for the full year of 2024, expect our adjusted EBITDA margin to be between 18% and 20% of gross profit.

The whole organization and myself will continue to have high focus on net working capital also going forward, ensuring that we understand the underlying drivers and identify improvements -- and identify improvement potential. I've been clear all along that there is no quick fix or silver bullet. Sustainable process improvement requires constant attention.

However, with approximately $50 billion in gross sales going through the balance sheet, there are significant month-over-month and quarter-over-quarter variability. Our net working capital target is thereby extremely sensitive to the quarter-end snapshot. To illustrate, on a rolling 12-month basis, net working capital as share of gross profit went from plus 2% end of Q3 to minus 2.6% end of Q4. As a consequence, for 2024, we guide for an increased range of minus 2.5% to minus 10%. We are confident that we will deliver negative working capital at least on the same level as 2023, but the outlook reflects the variation and uncertainty.

Furthermore, we have reviewed our medium-term ambition. Although there is uncertainty in the numbers, we find it prudent to update the guiding to a specific target of minus 15% from the previous range of minus 15% to minus 20%.

Lastly, CapEx will no longer be part of the company's official outlook. CapEx levels will vary based on strategic investments activities, but it's expected to be between 2.5% and 3% of gross profit over time.

And with that, I hand it over to Melissa for the closing remarks.

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Thank you. To conclude, since IPO, we have been on an international growth journey and continue to see opportunities to expand with the demand across Software and Cloud, Licensing and Advisory. We are well positioned to support our customers with long-term market opportunities given our scale and global strength.

Second, we remain committed to profitability improvements on consulting and will manage through efficiency measures put in place. Lastly, we remain committed to continuous focus on net working capital as we continue to deliver growth and profitability in 2024.

We will now transition to Q&A.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Thank you, Melissa. I will now go through some of the questions that we have received on the chat. We will try to -- there are obviously many questions on some of the same topics, and we'll try to go through them collectively.

The first question is coming from Oliver Pisani and several others is relating to the profitability development in the consulting business. Will you just slow down hiring or will you implement a cost program to reduce the number of FTEs for 2024?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Great question. We have been slow down hiring over the last quarter as we've shown previously. As you see from our reported headcount numbers, we slowed down hiring, but are now expanding our efforts to manage delivery capacity to improve utilization. We are also not hiring consultants unless there is a project in place. So there is a significant amount of efforts put into this as we are progressing forward.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

There's also a follow-up on the outlook for the Consulting business into 2024, specifically related to the public sector budget tightness that you commented on in the presentation.

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Yes. Let me give some explanation around that. So in Q4, we saw unforeseen public sector budget constraints that negatively impacted Consulting. For context, in Norway, public sector accounts for just over half of our Consulting business, and the growth was flat year-on-year due to the cuts that were unforeseen. Public sector allocated their spend towards Licensing versus the Consulting side of the business.

Now as we progress into Q1, we will expect some carryover effect around that. and we'll be managing accordingly.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

And another follow-up on the same topic. Will the margin development for '24 will be more back-end loaded as a cost program takes effect?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Naturally, yes. When implementing efficiency measures, it takes time to show this effect. But let me give you the utmost confidence that this is a top priority for us as we speak.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Transitioning over to net working capital. There are some questions on the vendor -- extended vendor payment terms and whether that will reverse in Q1.

[Brede Huser, executive]

In connection with the extended vendor payment terms, we have signed an NDA. So we're not at liberty to disclose any details. The only thing I can say is that as of today, it's still in place.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

There are also a couple of questions on the impairment of the business in Oman and Qatar. Is there any other conflict similar to Oman, Qatar ongoing that could be a risk factor ahead?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

No. We do not have any other structures like this in Crayon. This arrangement was identified as part of my assessment coming in. And it's divergent from how we conduct business, and it's one that we will not keep nor have in the future.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Another follow-up also related to Consulting. Has pricing for consulting projects also weakened during the year?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Yes. The competition has been dragging down prices. So those price adjustments -- has delivered impact compared to last year.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Another question on the operational side, which is also important to address. What were the reasons for the weakness in the Channel business in the quarter?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

The Channel business performed across several key markets, but where there was weakness in specific with Southeast Asia. This is being addressed, but we did see partner loss specifically in Southeast Asia, but not the rest of the business.

[Kjell Hansen, executive]

Thank you. That actually concludes all the questions that we have received in the platform. So I'm not sure if Melissa, want to say some closing statements?

[Melissa Mulholland, executive]

Thank you so much for joining and for the questions prepared. What I will state is, is that our effectiveness around net working capital has shown improvement, and this will continue to be a priority because it's not just something we can do as a onetime effect.

In addition, we are laser-focused on the consulting side of the business to improve efficiencies and have active measures in place so that we demonstrate the margin improvement for '24. Lastly, what I will say is, is that the growth performance has been exceptional, which shows that there's still very much strong demand from our customers, and this is something we will continue to capitalize on as we proceed to '24.