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Good day, and welcome to the BW Energy Q4 Presentation Call. Please note this call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]The host of today's presentation are Carl, Knut and Lin. Please go ahead.
Thank you, and welcome to BW Energy fourth quarter and full year 2022. Please note our disclaimer. Then on to our highlights for the fourth quarter and the full year.The Hibiscus/Ruche development, I'm pleased to say, is on track for first oil in the first quarter 2023. We have completed the installation of the platform, BW MaBoMo and the subsea pipeline and flexibles and we're all tied into Adolo where some minor remaining work is ongoing.We are progressing towards closing on Golfinho and the 2 transactions there. And we are maturing the Kudu asset with a 3D seismic survey.The fourth quarter EBITDA ended at $21.8 million and for the full year, $154.2 million. The fourth quarter gave a net loss of $8 million, and we had a profit for the full year of $45 million.We had one lifting in the quarter of 680,000 barrels, but unfortunately, we received only a price of $73, and I will comment further on that later on in the presentation. We still had a strong cash flow, and the balance sheet was saying a cash position of $210 million at the end of the year.We have planned or revised the plan for first oil from Maromba to the second half of 2026, and that will also be commented further later on in the presentation.Our safety performance for the fourth quarter was excellent. And indeed, for 2022 as well, we had no recorded lost time incidents in 2022, even though we had, as you know, very high activity levels, and we are, I think, rightfully proud of that achievement. We further had no environmental incidents in 2022.And on the same topic, we have -- we are making action plans for environmental and sustainability for Dussafu asset, in particular, as that is our operating assets for the time being, which contains critical habitat assessments, biodiversity and invasive species management plans and a flaring reduction plan.The next slide shows our reserve update. The Dussafu net reserves is basically the same as last year, with -- or adjusted for the annual production of 3.9 million barrels. The same, obviously, goes for Maromba where there has been no production through the year. And the same goes for Kudu. Kudu, please note that these figures are in BCF and not barrels.Then on to Dussafu and a bit further details on the Dussafu operations. Our Q4 gross production was 883,000 barrels, which is equal to 9,600 barrels per day, and we had an OpEx of $40 per barrel, which is reflecting the somewhat lower production compared to previous quarter.We realized $73 for our December lifting and this was due to a, let's say, a number of unfortunate coincidences. We had very high rates for freight, so tankers were expensive in the quarter. We also saw a glut of very low sulfur fuel oil, which is one of the main cuts from refining the Dussafu crude.And there was, of course, the -- a lot of unstability in the market due to the EU embargo of Russian oil. And this led to a glut of Dussafu compatible crudes in the market, and we could only achieve $73 in our lifting. We had very limited ability to shift the timing of the lifting, unfortunately, due to our ongoing installation campaigns and lifting, as you can see from the caption where we lifted the compressor onboard Adolo. And that was unfortunate, but that is something that can happen, of course, in the E&P business.The increase in lift capacity is underway. And it's again, just to repeat, you see here the lifting of the compressor module, the new gas lift compressor module on to the unit. And the installation work is ongoing, and we will then immediately start on the commissioning as soon as we have established first oil from Hibiscus/Ruche.Dussafu production forecast remain largely as before. The production of -- from 2022 was 3.9 million barrels at an average price of $36 per barrel. Our next lifting is expected in March and then you can see there will also be lifting in the second quarter. The 2023 production is expected to be in the range of 8 million to 10 million barrels with an OpEx of $20 to $25 per barrel.Here, you see on the picture, the BW MaBoMo and the Borr Norve drilling through the weld templates of the MaBoMo. The MaBoMo was fully installed in October. And we have later on then installed in the quarter -- we installed the pipeline and the flexibles, everything being completed in January. And we then received the rig and we have started the drilling campaign.We had a very good performance, strong HSE performance in the project execution of MaBoMo and the whole installation campaign with 0 LTIs for the whole project.So we are still on track for first oil at the end of first quarter. We started the drilling operations in January, the first production well, DHIBM-3H will target the Gamba sandstone reservoir in the Hibiscus field.And we have, as we speak, drilled and cemented all 6 conductors for the first 6 wells of the drilling campaign. We have options for a further 2 production wells or if we may choose also to do some exploration drilling. The 6 initial wells is planned to add approximately 30,000 barrels per day of production, and that will be early 2024.The gross CapEx for the project stands now at $450 million, including, of course, the drilling campaign, which is still below our original FID budget, and we are still tracking well to be on the original plan of our Hibiscus/Ruche development. So we are continuing to evaluate, as I said, some potential exploration drilling, and we will add that to the tail end of the campaign if we find -- if we high grade the right targets.Then on to Maromba. The project Maromba remains robust, and we have done a review of the project as the final investment decision, which is subject to project financing activities, had dragged down out in time.We have, in this period, seen a significant cost inflation and a lot of the input parameters for Maromba project. And we have -- due to this, we have decided to do a further cost optimization of the project, and we have decided to revise the planned first oil until the second quarter 2026.We are still working on the financing of the FPSO. We, of course, hope to be successful. We have made commitments to certain long lead items, so we will be able to restart the project and have the shortest possible execution time.But due to the high cost inflation, we are also stepping through everything, particularly related to, well, of course, the FPSO, but also the SURF -- and the drilling program to make sure that we have the optimum program based on the current cost that -- costs that we see in the market.We do expect, again, to repeat an annual production of 30,000 to 40,000 barrels per day from Maromba. So again, this remains a very robust project, and it certainly meets our investment criteria.Kudu, we have a lot of activity on Kudu these days, and we are very pleased to say we have signed an Engagement Protocol with NamPower which covers the project feasibility process and also sets us up for negotiating a term sheet for the future power purchase agreement to be finally negotiated.The sentiment in Namibia is very good, and we have today a widespread stakeholder support for the project, including both political and regulatory bodies. And this is, of course, driven by the very unstable power situation in Sub-Sahara Africa due to South Africa and the problems they have with the power generating capacity of Eskom and the frequent blackouts.We are also being contacted and in contact with other potential private offtakers of gas and power. And of course, that is further widening the business potential of our development.The focus today is on completing the seismic and geotechnical studies. We are in the process of undertaking, as you know, a 3D seismic survey. We are shooting seismic as we speak. This will cover the whole area of the Kudu -- the whole licensed area, which is close to 5,000 square kilometers and we will shoot that with the best possible 3D seismic technology available today.This is particularly relevant today, of course, where there is a lot of activity in the Orange Basin, and there has been a number of shallower oil discoveries made by Total and Shell, and we can see some of these structures potentially extending into the Kudu license. So with the planned FID work, we hope, of course, then to have the results of the 3D seismic survey, both for additional gas potential in the block as well as potential oil deposits.Then on to Golfinho. So we are progressing the Golfinho transaction, which is not only the Golfinho field, but also the Camarupim cluster and 65% in Brigadeiro as well as the FPSO Cidade de Vitoria. So we take over 100% operating interest in Golfinho and Camarupim and 65% in Brigadeiro. We have achieved approval by ANP as operator. We have built the local organization and we have been through the operational preparedness. So everything is in place.The closing is subject to a waiver of CPs and restart of the field production after the FPSO have been upgraded and -- shut down and upgraded after requirements from ANP. So we are waiting for these upgrades to be approved by ANP and then the field restarted and then we will be able to lift the CPs in due course. So this is expected to add production of 9,000 barrels per day.And again, quickly, the reserves. We are looking at recoverable reserves are 38 million barrels of oil equivalents and 0.7 Tcf of gas, which is a future potential. The assets that we take over also include a gas pipeline to shore, which is a sales point, of course, for any potential gas that we can develop.So with that, we are on to financials, and I will pass on the button to Knut.
Thank you, Carl. Good morning, everyone. I will give you some comments today to the Q4 financials and also the full year. We have this morning also made public the whole Annual Report, including the Sustainability Report that's part of the Annual Report and also then the annual statement of reserves and the report on payments to government. So it's all available on our website. So to the income statement for the fourth quarter. As Carl mentioned, we achieved a lower oil price than what we were hoping for, bringing the operating revenue somewhat lower in Q4 than in previous quarters. We also had a loss on the derivatives of $5.6 million, most of that unrealized, coming a little bit back to our hedges.And then on the operating expenses, they were somewhat higher, mainly due to the preparations that we're doing in Brazil to take over the Golfinho preparation. So we already are incurring some costs to get prepared hiring people and so on.So EBITDA ended up at $21.8 million for the fourth quarter. Depreciation is more or less in line with previous quarters. So then the operating profit stood at $6 million with net financial expenses increasing somewhat. That will increase even more going forward because of the reserve-based lending facility. So we had an increase in the interest expense due to the RBL. So the net financial expense ended at $5.8 million, giving us a slight profit before tax. And after tax, we had a net loss of $8 million in the fourth quarter.Also taking us through the full year. So you can see the revenues were somewhat up compared to 2021, mainly because of a higher oil price that we achieved during the year. We had a little bit lower production and sales. And we also had the losses from derivatives of $19.9 million.So the hedging activity was started early in '21 due to the requirements from the RBL. So we started in January and February just before the war in Ukraine to put some hedges. That was not a fortunate timing because the oil price increased a lot just thereafter.So the operating expenses was more or less in line, giving us an EBITDA for the year of $154.3 million and depreciation is more or less in line with previous year. As I said, production and sales were pretty similar during both these years, giving us an operating profit of $94.1 million.Net financial expenses of $10.3 million gave us a profit before tax of $83.8 million and profit after tax of $45 million for the year.To the balance sheet, we had a high investment activity during the year. So you can see here the E&P tangible assets are increasing a lot with the investments mainly in the Ruche Hibiscus development, also some investments taking place in Maromba and Kudu. Kudu was not a lot, that's more this year because of the seismic shoot that will show up here.And what I also could mentioned in the balance sheet is the fact that we now have interest-bearing debt compared to last year where we didn't have anything. We had an additional drawing of $71 million in the fourth quarter, taking us up to $171 million that was drawn on the RBL at year-end. Still a very strong balance sheet. We have that here, where you can see we have 51% of the equity compared to total assets or equity ratio of 51%.To the fourth quarter cash flows, we started off with $186.5 million, had an operating cash flow mainly because of lifting in December. That was also paid in December of $41.6 million. Then we had the investments mainly again in the Hibiscus/Ruche development of $76.4 million. And then also, as I said, the drawing on the RBL, which then gave us an end cash balance of $210.8 million.And for the full year, we started off in January last year with $151 million, a very good operating cash flow during the year of $168.7 million, investing activities of $129.5 million and the net financing activities of $238 million, giving us an end cash situation of $210.8 million.Here, we have an overview of the investments in assets all the way back since the inception of the company. So you can see we have invested a lot in Gabon in the Dussafu license over the years, starting off in '17 and '18 with the first development in Tortue Phase 1. Then you can see in '19-'20, we had the Tortue Phase 2 starting off and then the Hibiscus/Ruche development that is still continuing going forward.You can also see here the Maromba capital expenditure, the main part then in Q3 '19, where we had the first installment to Petrobras and Chevron for the acquisition of the asset. Next payment there is due on start-off of drilling activities. So there won't be anything happening there in '23.And then on Kudu, where we took over the asset or increased our ownership back in last year and where we are also now shooting the seismic in Q1 as we speak.So to sum this up, our production outlook has shifted somewhat towards '26 and '27 because of the Maromba delay that Carl just explained. On Hibiscus/Ruche, we expect then to see a very good increase in '23 and '24 up to the production capacity of the FPSO.So the strategic priorities and value levers. We are about to optimize the Dussafu output. The new gas lift capacity will give us production from all 6 wells. During '22, we more or less had all wells producing all the time, and then there was one well that was little bit on and off with the nitrogen unit that we have explained in the past. So now we then expect all 6 wells to come up from Tortue. And then as mentioned, we are doing the assessment of the Kudu potential.On the development side, late March, we will hopefully see the first oil flowing from the Ruche Hibiscus project, focusing on getting the Maromba financing done and also to finalize the agreement with local power company in Namibia for the Kudu gas to power project.On the corporate side, good cash position. We're working very hard in Brazil now to complete the Golfinho acquisition, waiting for the regulatory bodies to give their final approval on the restart of the field to get that closing done as soon as possible.Our goal is also to ensure a very high operational cash flow to fund our new projects and also future shareholder returns and maintaining a strong balance sheet and liquidity supported by the RBL.So on the right-hand side, you can see the game changer for the company that will happen now in the second quarter, where Tortue production will increase with the new gas lift capacity. We will get oil production from the Hibiscus/Ruche and from the Golfinho transaction we will also add the anticipated $9,000. So we will have about 3x higher production towards the end of the next quarter.So that concludes our presentation for today. And then I'll leave the word back to the operator to take any questions that might be from online, and then we'll get back to any questions that we have on the web.So back to you, operator.
[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Teodor Sveen-Nilsen from SpareBank 1 Markets.
A few questions from me. Just on Maromba. Is it like the lack of project financing that is the key issue there or is this cost inflation or is it a combination? Any color on that would be useful.And further on Maromba, have you considered to farm-down the partner -- your 5% partner, able to pay some of the CapEx themselves or are you required to carry them.And my final question that is on dividends. You have been guiding for dividends after Maromba first oil and also the completion of Hibiscus/Ruche Phase 2. Should you expect that is a 2026-2027 event now that you've pushed out or any clarity around the first year dividend would be.
Okay. Thank you. Well, I can only give a flavor. Yes, it is primarily the lack of project financing for the FPSO that is affecting our decision to push it out. It's very difficult to say that you're kind of half-finished with the financing. It's you either have it or you don't. And unfortunately, we're still in the position that we haven't been able to close the financing. And yes, we have seen a significant cost inflation in a lot of the input variables for the project. This has triggered an internal process, of course, of stepping through our project plans, our solutions, and we're looking at optimizing both how we do it, when we do it, because we think that is prudent as we have now a somewhat changed landscape to when we started this process.On farm-down, we have an open door. If people want to talk to us, and I'm sure the people that want to talk to us, they know they can talk to us. So we're not adverse to thinking about the farm-down if the conditions and the partner is right. But that's about all I can say on that. Our 5% partner is carried, but they will pay us back for their share.On dividends, the dividends is really based on the Board's view on the company's, let's say, development, production. Our plans are changing. We are responding to possibilities in the market. We have just entered into agreements to acquire the Golfinho cluster. So nothing is kind of set in stone here with respect for dividends and Maromba as such.It's really is the development of the company and the viability of paying out a long-term dividends. So it will be how the Board views the investment plans, the investment opportunities growth versus paying out dividends, and that is not really for me to say how they will evaluate that. That's the Board decision.So I'm sure they will be absolutely keen to pay out dividend when they see that the parameters that they have are right for it.
And just to add to that. I mean dividends, I mean, is this annual closing and annual financials, it's not only about financials, it's about sustainability. And I would just add that dividend should be sustainable as well. So that is also why we, in the past, have said that we have to have a good overview of all our investment activities and liquidity position before we can pay dividends. Any -- was that okay, Teodor or --
Yes, yes, absolutely. Just a follow-up on the Maromba financing. What's the -- when should we expect that to close? Is that 2023 event?
Well, it's very difficult, as I said, to give like a progress update and say we're 75% complete, because with financing it's either you have it or you don't. We're making progress. And we're, of course, particularly happy that China has opened up as a possibility for us again because that widens the possibility of achieving the infrastructure financing that we're looking for, for the FPSO. So -- what I can say today is it's still work in progress and we're, of course, looking for the most accretive deal for our shareholders. And we feel we're not there yet, so we have a few more runs to go.
[Operator Instructions] There are currently no further questions on the phone. I'll hand back to your host for any web questions.
Thank you, operator. Yes, we have a few questions from the web as well.First one comes from Daniel Stenslet, in Arctic Securities. What is your best assessment of total Maromba CapEx, both one; on prior to first oil; and two, if including activities after first oil, which might be further drilling, et cetera.Then there's a second question, what Dussafu exploration prospects are you most likely to drill in the future? And the third question, when do you expect to start drilling production wells for Hibiscus/Ruche Phase 2?So on the Maromba CapEx, I think Carl elaborated on it. It's --
Yes, it's I think, it's -- it wouldn't be prudent to start giving any fixed CapEx number at this point as we have just decided to step through everything. So that is work in progress. And how we look at the situation may also affect the execution of the program, how many wells we drill in the first phase, in the second phase, et cetera. So I think that is something we need to come back on when we have done our work on Maromba. So I think I would leave it at this juncture. And then on the prospects -- drilling prospects Lin.
Yes. The -- one of the things that we really like about Dussafu is the large inventory of undrilled exploration prospects. And so partners and ourselves are working through and with an eye to potentially drill a prospect or 2 at the end of this drilling production development drilling campaign, which would be sometime next year. Those plans haven't been finalized, we need to work it through the government and partners first. But suffice it to say, there's still quite a few exciting prospects, and we're going through that evaluation phase right now. And then the other question was about when would -- so our current drilling -- development drilling on Hibiscus/Ruche is ongoing right now. That's going to carry us through into the beginning of next year. The original program was 6. We're keen to expand that additional 2 wells. Then perhaps drill an exploration to be determined. And then we would probably take a break depending on performance of the wells and the overall environment, but there's probably be somewhat of a pause between the second campaign.
Okay. Good. We have a further question here from Martin Hoang Nguyen in DNB. Could you elaborate what your investment criteria related to Maromba are, given the recent cost inflation. Could you give any details on breakeven levels and CapEx estimates. I think we've taken those on the CapEx estimates, but investment criteria.
It's a bit difficult to come up with a breakeven before we have the CapEx. So I think that answered that part of the question. Then Knut on the investment criteria.
Yes, we are looking at, of course, return on equity and IRRs as the main criteria. And as Carl said earlier in the presentation, it's still a very robust project. So what we definitely would like to see higher IRR at current oil prices, but I think the most important is here to also test it on potentially lower oil prices.And of course, the other sensitivities like higher CapEx and higher OpEx, that's part of our assessment when we look at projects. But at least to have a 20% at a higher oil price, that's for sure. But it should also be okay at a lower oil price.So then we have a question from Ola Eikanger in SEB. 2 questions. When do you expect first production contributions from Golfinho by the end of Q1 or Q2?And the second question Dussafu 2023 production cost is expected at USD 20 million to USD 25 million, which compares with Q4 of USD 40 million and USD 36 million. Could you provide a little more color on how you're planning to bridge the gap basically cutting production costs per barrel in half.Well, to the first question on Golfinho.
Well, on Golfinho, as I mentioned in my presentation, there -- the field is currently shut down. And one of the conditions -- precedence is that the field needs to be restarted. Petrobras and ANP is discussing that restart as we speak. And we expecting to -- in the near future, but we cannot say exactly when, give Petrobras the green light to restart. Then there is a stabilization period which is part of our -- part of their obligations to us where we will see that the field is producing stable output for a period of time, and then we will have the condition -- then we will lift the conditions, and we will take over the field as operator. So that's the protocol.And of course, some of this is out of our hands because it goes on between Petrobras and ANP. We're definitely party to it, so we understand all the discussions, we understand the situation, but it's a bit out of our hands because we are not the decision makers in that process. But that's basically -- I would say it's very likely that we take over in the second quarter as we will go into the second quarter before we take over with the present, let's say, status that we see today. So -- but how far exactly how many days, very difficult to predict.The second part of the question was on --
On production cost.
And that's a pure functional volume. When you double the volume and the costs are about the same, you get half them.
[Operator Instructions]
We lost the line for a bit.
Sorry, we lost the line. So there are, of course, some costs are dependent on volume, but basically, it's a volume to cost that gives the cost per barrel.
Okay. Then we have a question from Steffen Evjen in DNB. If we can share some more details on the Golfinho transaction related to the field restart and FPSO upgrades. Could you provide some more color on what investments you expect to incur here? And how long the FPSO will be offline?
We don't expect to be [ related ] to the FPSO after we take over other than operating costs. The remedial work has been done by Saipem and Petrobras, and they have -- they are going to have to fulfill the obligations they have to ANP. And we are privy to this.I think the other part of the question on the takeover, I think I gave that to the previous answer.
Okay. Good. Then we have a question from [ Nick ] in Sefton Place. Is restart of last condition for the Golfinho acquisition? Or are there other outstanding approvals that may take longer.
The restart is the last ANP approval. There is a IBAMA approval of us as operator, but we believe that will follow the ANP approval of the startup and our takeover. But there is a further IBAMA approval. But that is not expected to delay or affect the actual takeover of the field operatorship.
Okay. Next question is coming from Tom Erik in Pareto Securities. When do you expect to reach the FPSO capacity at the Dussafu block? And how long can you maintain this production level based on existing discoveries?
All right. I'll step in here as one of -- in this last slide show the growth of production for year-end. This is going to be quite the year for BW Energy. And we expect at the end of our drilling campaign, whether it's at the year-end or through the end of the drilling campaign, which will go into a bit of next year as well, though that we ought to get to the capacity of the FPSO, which is normally around 40,000 barrels a day gross.Then the next question is how long can we maintain it? Well, we will need to monitor the performance of the reservoir. We'll see how well the reservoir pressure is maintained. And that will, in part, dictate when we'll start drilling the subsequent Phase 2 wells to see how long we can maintain it. But I think in past presentations, reservoir modeling suggests that we should be able to maintain plateau for 2-plus years, give or take.
Okay. And then it's [ Nick ] again. What do you think is a reasonable time line to assess Kudu seismic and take a view on attractiveness of different prospects?
I think the full interpretation of the seismic is expected by end of '24.
Okay. Quick. Then we have a question from [ David ] in [ Spangel ]. Given the lack of project financing at Maromba does management feel that the company needs to grow larger through M&A to access this finance more readily. What is the current state of the M&A market in Brazil?Don't necessarily get the question here. I mean the M&A market in Brazil that is -- you see a lot of transactions being announced. I mean, Petrobras, they have their long list of divestments that they're still working on. So it is a market that it is there and there are transactions being closed. And even with, let's say, the new government in Brazil, we see that, that is continuing. So Brazil is an interesting market. But obviously, we a lot of -- on our plate already with Golfinho and Maromba developments.And then financing, yes, there are also financing opportunities in Brazil that we might tap into. In general, we're looking at different, let's say, pockets of available liquidity in different parts of the world. And as Carl said, we're trying to figure out what's the most attractive and what serves our shareholders in the best way.
And then we're also today looking at potential Kudu financing, and that's a different ball game, again, because that's gas to power. And its gas to power that will replace very dirty power -- coal to power from South Africa. So it's definitely got a much higher attractiveness in terms of sustainability.It's also, of course, a very good partner to renewables to have gas power for a country like Namibia and its neighboring countries. So that will be a different game again to finance that development. So yes, we're having a lot of interesting things in -- to do in financing is what we can say.
Okay. And then we have the question from [ Nick ] again. It's about the CapEx guidance for '23 a split between your different operating assets. And the final question from [ Nick ] is what is the amount of CapEx commitment you have made by ordering long lead-items at Maromba and how much of this would be '23 CapEx versus CapEx in later years?For the CapEx guidance that we see now for 2023 is around $250 million. I mean, it's always hard to say at the start of the year, how much will be '23 and how much will go into '24. We -- the main CapEx is obviously going into the Hibiscus/Ruche project, where there is approximately $140 million that we see as of today for '23 and something is going over in '24.On Maromba, there are some long lead-items, as you mentioned in your questions and so that's mainly related to boiler, turret system there it's mainly the swivel and some SURF equipment that we have worked on and some agreements that are in place, and then it's the workforce that is costing us. So it's around $30 million is what we have in our models as of now for '23.And for Kudu, usually that was mainly related to a few hours per quarter now. It's, of course, the seismic shoot that will take us somewhat up with the agreement with NamPower will also beef up the project somewhat. So around $40 million is what we see for 2023 CapEx for Q2.So that concludes the questions we have on the web. So then I'll leave it to you, Carl, to close.
Well, I think, again, thank you for your attention. Thank you for listening in. Thank you for all your interesting questions and we hope that this has been a useful time for you to participate in this as well. Thank you.
Thank you.