Borregaard ASA

OSE:BRG

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q3

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to this third quarter 2024 presentation for Borregaard.

My name is Per Sørlie, and I'm the President and CEO of the company, and I will be joined this morning by our CFO, Per Bjarne Lyngstad. At the end of the presentation, we will conduct a Q&A session. And if you are watching this live on web, you are welcome to put forward questions throughout the presentation, and we'll come back at the end of the presentation and give you some comments.

We'll take you through this agenda. I'll talk about the highlights on the market side in the third quarter, go through the different business segments, and we will also -- we have also announced today that we will initiate a capacity increase at the biorefinery in Sarpsborg and then I will conclude with the outlook. And then Per Bjarne will come back and take a more closer look at the financial figures.

The highlights for the third quarter, we delivered -- we are pleased with an EBITDA of NOK 524 million compared to NOK 482 million in the same quarter last year. This was driven first and foremost, by increased sales volume in BioSolutions. We had higher deliveries as predicted in BioMaterials, but this was more than offset by increased wood costs and other operating expenses. The Fine Chemicals delivered a strong result with significantly higher deliveries in bioethanol and a favorable product mix for pharmaceutical intermediates. Slightly positive net currency effects. So that did not really move the needle on the result and explain why we had an increase in the results.

If we take a look at the different business segments, first, the BioSolutions markets. The sales volume increased by 7% from the same quarter last year, and this was -- we have a very broad offering into agriculture. And when we look across our sales, this was -- this volume increase was driven primarily by sales into agriculture. The average price in sales currency was in line with the same quarter last year. And biovanillin is still impacted by the high global supply of synthetic products, so that was not the main or explanation why the results improved in this particular business area. Neither was the currency a big factor in moving the result upwards.

Then if we go to BioMaterials. The average price in sales currency came up 2% compared to the previous quarter. And this was in line with our guidance that we had implemented certain price increases where possible, according to our different contracts. You can also say that the average price in sale currency came up 2% compared to the same quarter last year. And this was a combination of price and particularly mix. Of course, we also saw significantly higher deliveries. The sales volume came from below 35,000 tonnes to about 41,000 tonnes in the quarter.

If you look at year-to-date now, you can see that we are supplying and delivering more than we produced this year in line with our guidance. Also in this business area, the currency did not really have a big impact on the result development.

Then finally, the Fine Chemicals market or business segment. We had a very strong quarter in this business, probably the best ever quarter we have reported. This was a combination of two things. We had a very favorable product mix in fine chemical intermediates. And in bioethanol, we had significantly higher deliveries than we had in the same quarter last year, and I think that unusually high deliveries for a single quarter. Also, again, the currency did not have a -- play a big factor in the result development in this particular business area.

Then we have announced an expansion investment to increase the capacity at the biorefinery in Sarpsborg and this will be done through a series of debottlenecking investments, the total expansion investment of NOK 490 million. And this is the first of two planned steps to increase the capacity towards 2027. And this was also mentioned at the CMD in September that we were close to proving this kind of an investment. These two steps will deliver between 5% and 10% capacity increase. And the good thing about these projects is that they will deliver increased volume across the whole portfolio. So there will be more lignin-based biopolymers where this raw material, I would say, is quite unique. Also in specialty cellulose and finally in bioethanol. And the production output is expected to increase gradually from late 2026.

There will be other benefits from these investments as well, both in -- both on the environmental side and on the cost side. There will be reduced costs in -- through energy savings and reduced caustic soda consumption. And the COD effluents to water will come down as a result of these investments. So there are a number of benefits. And as with the debottlenecking, it should be an economical way to increase the capacity.

Then I will round off with the outlook, which is focusing on the fourth quarter and hence quite short. Today, the sales volume in the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes for BioSolutions and the continued strong sales into agriculture, as we have seen throughout the first 3 quarters as well. We don't expect a big change in the biovanillin market. There is still a high supply of synthetic vanillin products, and we think that this will happen, continue as long as the investigations conducted in the EU and the U.S. around this dumping accusations are ongoing.

In BioMaterials, we will expect to deliver approximately 35,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter. In Fine Chemicals, the deliveries, both of bioethanol and fine chemical intermediates will come down compared to the very high levels that we saw in the third quarter. And again, a few reminders. The energy consumption, spot energy prices and energy-related raw material prices are expected to seasonally increase as we go into the winter period. The annual maintenance stop at the Sarpsborg site was conducted in October. So that will be visible in the accounts for the fourth quarter. And of course, a general reminder that there is a lot of uncertainty in the world right now, and we will have to follow that and make necessary adjustments as we go along.

So that completes my presentation, and I will hand over to Per Bjarne.

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Thank you, Per, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, Borregaard's operating revenues were 14% above the third quarter of 2023, mainly due to higher sales volumes. EBITDA increased by NOK 42 million to NOK 524 million. The result in BioSolutions and Fine Chemicals improved, while Biomaterials had a lower result. We saw higher sales volume in all business segments in the quarter. However, the effect of higher sales volume was partly offset by increased wood cost and an increase in -- due to the general cost inflation.

Net currency effects were slightly positive by NOK 5 million compared with the same quarter last year. The EBITDA margin was 27% in the quarter, close to last year's all-time high margin. Earnings per share increased to NOK 2.51 compared with NOK 2.38 last year.

Operating revenues in BioSolutions increased by 8% compared with the third quarter last year due to higher sales volume. EBITDA reached NOK 271 million, an improvement of NOK 36 million. The higher sales volume mainly to agriculture was the main reason also for the result improvement. Operating expenses were at the same levels as in the corresponding quarter last year if we take the higher sales volume into account.

Net currency effects were slightly positive for BioSolutions in the quarter. The EBITDA margin increased by close to 2 percentage points to 26.3%. Significantly higher deliveries of specialty cellulose were the main reason for a 20% increase in operating revenues for BioMaterials. EBITDA was NOK 131 million compared with NOK 161 million in the same quarter last year. The higher deliveries and price increases for certain cellulose grades were more than offset by increased wood costs and other operating expenses. The net currency impact in BioMaterials was insignificant.

Compared with the second quarter this year, the EBITDA margin in BioMaterials improved but was about 9% below the all time high margin in the third quarter last year.

In Fine Chemicals, significantly higher deliveries of bioethanol resulted in 24% increase in operating revenues compared to last year. EBITDA reached NOK 122 million, an all-time high result for this business segment. The main reason for the stronger result were the high deliveries of bioethanol and a favorable product mix for fine chemical intermediates. Net currency effects were also insignificant in this business segment. The EBITDA margin increased to 50%, about 6 percentage points above the same quarter last year.

As I said, net currency impact on EBITDA was positive by NOK 5 million compared with last year. The positive currency impact came from a close to 3% weaker Norweigian kroner using Borregaard's currency basket. The impact from a weaker Norwegian kroner was largely offset by increased hedging losses. Hedging losses were NOK 86 million in the quarter compared with NOK 62 million in the same quarter last year. Using currency rates as of yesterday, the net currency impact for the full year of 2024 is estimated to be negative by about NOK 20 million compared with 2023. The corresponding impact for the fourth quarter is estimated to be positive by NOK 10 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2023.

Borregaard had a cash flow from operating activities of NOK 391 million in the third quarter. The cash flow in the period was positively affected by the cash flow effect from a high EBITDA, which was partly offset by an increase in net working capital. Investments were NOK 287 million in the quarter. The main expenditure was the NOK 150 million investment in Alginor. Net interest-bearing debt was reduced by NOK 97 million in the quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Borregaard was well capitalized with an equity ratio of 56% and a leverage ratio, which is net interest-bearing debt over EBITDA, of 1.15.

And that concludes today's presentation. Per Sørlie and I will now be ready to answer any questions from those present here in Olso and those who follow the webcast. Our Director, Investor Relations, Knut-Harald Bakke, will moderate webcast questions.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Thank you. We will start with a question from Martin Melbye from ABG on CapEx. What is the total CapEx for debottlenecking for both steps?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

We have presented a number, of course, for the first step today. We are not far enough in the process of the second step to really give a number for the whole project. But it will a lower number for the second step, but still a substantial number.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Second question from Andres Castanos of Berenberg regarding lignin volumes. Why are you guiding lower volumes in lignin? What has disappointed? If the cost was generally lower production rates at your partner mills, what is the reason they are producing less volumes?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, I'll just take a step back and say that in biopolymers in particular, and also here is biovanillin, we have 650 products. So we are basically into each part of GDP around the world. And what we are seeing is that the markets are still soft in some areas, particularly construction-related markets. So then there is always our policy to make an assessment whether it's the right -- what's the right to do. Is it to move product in different areas? Or is it to put products into inventory with higher values to make more sophisticated products and put them into inventory? And this is primarily the balancing effect of this that you see right now.

Generally, we don't see a huge upturn in many markets with the exception of the agricultural markets, and I would say also the battery segment has been very strong in this year. But at the lower end, like construction, it's been quite soft.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Next question from Niclas Gehin of DNB Markets regarding wood costs. Wood prices have been increasing steadily throughout the last couple of years now. What assumptions for wood cost development going forward would be fair to assume when the industry is negotiating prices for 2025?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, I think that there are a number of factors that drive the wood price. And of course, the Russian invasion in Ukraine is a big factor locally here in the Nordic region. But in addition to that, there are lots of movements going on in the EU. The EU just postponed the EU -- the EBRD that is about sustainable forest management process that will now go into effect, and it's a regulation that will prevent deforestation around the world, including also the Nordic region. So there are lots of -- and this will also put a lot of pressure on how much wood you can take out of the forest and how this can be managed in a sustainable way.

So there are lots of drivers that are putting pressure on the supply of wood. And we have said for a long time now that the expectation must be that wood will become more scarce, and there will be a fight for this raw material. Having said that, there are lots of people that use wood as a starting material, and they have different capabilities to really absorb the cost increases that we have seen now. So the unknown is what will happen to the demand curve as we go forward with these high prices. But we don't have any strict guidance on this except that the negotiations for next 6 months will take place the first half of 2025, will take place now towards the end of the year. But we don't -- like I said, the long-term prediction is that wood will be more scarce, and we have to expect that the wood cost will be at a fairly high level going forward. But we will have to see what happens to other buyers of wood.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Another question from Andres Castanos of Berenberg regarding agriculture. We believe that your strong sales of BioSolutions into the agriculture end market are winning market share in a difficult end market. Which families of products in your agriculture portfolio are doing well? And what are the selling points that your clients value over your competitors?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, I think that the offering, like I said, we have 650 products in the BioSolutions business area. But we also happen to have close to 100 products into the agricultural markets. So when we go across this whole portfolio, we see that there is no particular pattern. It's not the high end that is differentiating a lot from the low end. We are actually selling into products like granulation and more sophisticated products like into pesticides and biostimulants. So it's all across the field really. So if I take the liberty of citing one of our salespeople, he says that he thinks that our customers actually like our offerings because they are different now after -- when the market is starting to pick up. So I think that we have the right products at the right time.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

A question from Marcus Gavelli of Pareto Securities regarding Fine Chemicals. Would you mind commenting on the main drivers for the uptick in deliveries for Fine Chemicals? How is the visibility and contract dynamics going forward within this segment?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, fine chemical intermediates that we are -- there are two sets here of businesses, the fine chemical intermediates and the bioethanol. And I would say that what is a special characteristic of the Fine Chemical business area is that we have delivery patterns that could change or differ from one quarter to the next. So that's what we tried to convey here that we had particularly strong deliveries in this quarter. So that's not a reflection that sales will be permanently higher going forward because it's more a coincidence that delivery patterns change between quarters.

Having said that, the end market for fine chemical intermediates is very predictable, very strong over time because most of these products go into non-ionic x-ray contrast media, which is a very stable and fairly high growing market. So the annual volumes are quite stable and predictable, but there could be differences between quarters in delivery patterns. Saving for the bioethanol business, of course, that is driven today primarily by biofuel as we deliver advanced bioethanol into biofuel, which is heavily stimulated by the EU at the moment.

Going forward, we have to expect that these stimulants will attract more deliveries, more supply into that market. But still, it's a huge demand for these kind of products in this market. At the same time, we think that the end game for our bioethanol may be more into the pharmaceutical segment because we don't think that necessarily the biofuel market will be there forever. It's a technology risk connected to what kind of fuel will be used by automobiles in the future. So the longer-term target for us is to try to position bioethanol into pharmaceuticals.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Another question from Marcus Gavelli of Pareto Securities regarding BioSolutions outlook. How do you think about the price development for BioSolutions in 2025, considering the recent development?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, I think I'll go back again to saying that BioSolutions is not one thing. I mean it's actually 650 products. So it's across all kinds of markets. And the way we conduct this is that we have different sales forces in place that handle and manage the different markets. So this will be down to each individual market. But we have not seen big price movements this year as opposed to the previous two, three years. And I don't foresee right now that there will be big changes in the market pricing for -- inside BioSolutions going into 2025.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Question from Martin Melbye of ABG on the announced investment once again. How big is the volume uplift from step 1?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Well, we haven't communicated that, but it will be somewhere in the middle of the interval. It remains to be seen how much, but that's what we are aiming for.

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Yes. I can say that the second step is not an absolute. These steps are separate, but the second step is contingent upon the first step having been done. So what you will gain in the first step will be permanent. And whether you do the second step or not is a separate issue.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

And now we open up for questions from the physical audience here in Oslo.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

Magnus Rasmussen, SEB. Another question on the Fine Chemicals. You're saying that it's a bit coincidental when the volumes are there or not, especially on bioethanol and you're saying that you will have lower volumes in Q4 than Q3. That was also the case last year. Can you give us some guidance in the year-on-year terms for Q4? What that means?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, year-on-year, I mean our production is anywhere between 20 million to 22-plus million liters per year. And normally, you would sell what you produce over time. So that's the range that we will sell from year-to-year.

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

But we had an exceptionally high volume of ethanol in the third quarter and some of the -- and the large shipments there are boats, and we don't have many boats throughout the year. So a boat going out late in Q3 means that there will be less volume in inventory when we go into Q4. So it will be a significantly lower volume of bioethanol in the fourth quarter.

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Yes, the volume in the fourth quarter -- the third quarter itself is way above production in that particular quarter.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

In Q4 last year, you had some maintenance or some issues related to the maintenance stop in Sarpsborg. Can you remind us again what the financial impact of that was? And whether you expect everything to run as normal this year?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Yes, the impact last year was NOK 50 million in lost production and lost quality on the products. So it was a substantial number. We have finalized this year's maintenance stop. We have started up. Everything at the time being looks fine. So it doesn't look like we will repeat last year's this year, but remember that last year, something happened in November and December also. We don't think that will happen this year, but you never know. But so far, so good.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

And one final question on the working capital. There was a working capital drain in Q3, as you mentioned. This is despite high deliveries in bioethanol, for example. Do you expect reversal in Q4? Or is this driven by higher costs on wood, et cetera?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

The bioethanol actually was one of the main reasons for the increase in accounts receivable because we have a large margin, as you can see on bioethanol. And when we ship something late in the quarter, we have a large accounts receivable and not much in inventory. So that was a part of it. So it was only related to late sales and accounts receivable, the increase this quarter and we think that will normalize in the fourth quarter. We have almost always had a reduction in net working capital in the fourth quarter and sometimes quite substantial.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Unless there are any other questions from the physical audience, that concludes the Q&A session for the third quarter 2024.

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Thank you.

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Thank you.