Borregaard ASA

OSE:BRG

Earnings Call Analysis

Borregaard Q3 2023: Revenue Falls, Earnings Rise

In Q3 2023, Borregaard experienced a rise in EBITDA to NOK 482 million from last year's NOK 434 million, driven by higher sales prices and reduced energy costs which offset increased wood and labor expenses. However, sales volumes dipped, led by the construction sector's softening demand. Noteworthy is the impending market shift due to a competitor's plant closure, which could tighten supply. The company's BioSolutions and BioMaterials saw volume decreases, while stable advanced bioethanol prices projected a fixed revenue stream in Fine Chemicals for the remainder of the year. Borregaard expects seasonal challenges, such as higher energy prices and annual maintenance, which typically impact Q4 results. The forecast includes mitigating downturns with a diversified market strategy and responding to global economic uncertainties proactively.

Borregaard's Earnings Show Resilience Despite Market Headwinds in Q3 2023

In the third quarter of 2023, Borregaard showcased an encouraging financial performance amidst challenging economic conditions. The EBITDA for the quarter rose to NOK 482 million, representing an increase from the NOK 434 million reported in the previous year. This improvement was propelled by a favorable combination of higher sales prices across the board and reductions in energy costs, although these were partially negated by escalating wood and labor expenses. Moreover, the firm faced a dip in sales volume, particularly notable in the construction segments within BioMaterials and BioSolutions due to decreased demand.

BioMaterials and Fine Chemicals Drive Profit Growth

Despite the overall sales volume downturn, Borregaard's segments painted a mixed picture. BioMaterials and Fine Chemicals segments experienced performance enhancements, with the latter achieving an impressive EBITDA margin of 43%. The Fine Chemicals segment was buoyed by stable sales prices for advanced bioethanol, expected to remain consistent into Q4. Conversely, the BioSolutions segment witnessed a decrement, with sales volume receding by 10% compared to last year and the EBITDA dropping from NOK 261 million to NOK 235 million.

Strategic Responses to Construction Slowdown and Currency Impacts

Borregaard's management acknowledged the lower demand within the construction sector, implementing a diversified market strategy to mitigate its effects. A noteworthy aspect was the strong cash flow in the quarter, driven by a reduction in net working capital due mainly to declines in accounts receivable linked to the lower sales volumes. The net positive impact from currency effects totaled NOK 40 million, attributed to a weaker Norwegian kroner against the company's currency basket, despite increased hedging losses.

Future Outlook Amidst Fourth Quarter Challenges

Looking forward to the rest of the year, Borregaard anticipates that the diversified strategy in BioSolutions will keep softening market slowdown impacts, predicting sales volume to hover between 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes in Q4. BioMaterials' sales volume should align with Q4 of the previous year, and Fine Chemicals are set to benefit from higher deliveries and improved product mix. The company braces for the typical seasonal rise in energy pricing and anticipates its normally weakest quarter due to annual maintenance shutdowns, higher energy consumption, and labor costs. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding cost inflation, interest rates, and the global economic environment remain a focus for potential market impacts.

Operating Efficiencies and Capital Strength

Highlighted in the earnings call was Borregaard's capital strength with an equity ratio of 51% and a reduction of net interest-bearing debt by NOK 339 million in the quarter, culminating in a leverage ratio of 1.03 billion NOK. This fortifies the company's financial resilience, as it continues to optimize operations and manage capital proficiently.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to this third quarter 2023 presentation for Borregaard. My name is Per Sørlie. I'm the President and CEO of the company, and I'll be joined this morning by our Chief Financial Officer, Per Bjarne Lyngstad, and we will take you through this agenda, highlights for the quarter, the business segments and the market situation, the outlook for the remainder of the year. And then Per Bjarne will come back and talk more in detail about the financial figures. I will also remind you that this is a live webcast this morning, and we will come back with a Q&A session at the end of the presentation. But you are -- it's available to put forward questions throughout the webcast. So we will revert and look at those questions at the end. So please, if you have a question, you can register as we go along.

Then the highlights for the third quarter. The EBITDA came in at NOK 482 million, an increase from NOK 434 million in the same quarter last year. We saw increased sales prices across all business and areas. Also compared to the same quarter last year, we had reduced energy costs, but this was partly offset by increases in wood costs and labor costs. We all saw lower sales volume within certain applications, primarily driven by lower demand in the Construction segments, both in BioMaterials and in BioSolutions. Positive net currency effects as most other Norwegian companies have and also very satisfactory to see in this quarter a very strong cash flow.

If we look at BioSolutions, the average price in sales currency came in 3% above the same quarter last year. And we have to say that the diversified market strategy again contributed to a solid EBITDA margin in this business area. The sales volume, however, came in 10% lower versus the same quarter last year. And as already mentioned, lower deliveries to Construction, but also to some other segments within industrial and specialty applications and positive FX effects.

BioMaterials. The average price in sales currency came in 4% below the same quarter last year. However, if you look at each category of products, sales prices were higher within each category compared to the same quarter last year. So the reason why the average price came down was the product mix where -- because we sold less lower sales into the construction market for cellulose ethers. And as we see in the sales volume, which was comparable to the previous quarter last year, the lower sales into cellulose ethers was compensated by sales to other applications. But this again contributed to a weaker product mix and a slightly lower sales price. Again, in this business area, also positive FX impact. But I have to say that margins, of course, were extremely strong in this business area.

Also in September, a month ago, Georgia-Pacific announced that they would close down their Foley plant in Florida. And just to remind you, this is our standard slide from our investor presentation that describes the players in the Specialty Cellulose segment. The market is roughly 1.6 million tonnes and the top 5 producers have 80% or approximately 80% market share and the Georgia-Pacific Foley plant is estimated at around 150,000 into this segment. This is a huge pulp mill, 480,000 tonnes, but with a diversified product mix and different product lines. And the Specialty Cellulose part of the business is estimated at 150,000 tonnes.

The industry has a mix of technologies. It's either Kraft or sulfite and it's a mix of raw material, it's either hardwood or softwood. And as you can see in the bottom right-hand corner, you see the listing of the different players and what their technologies and raw material source is.

So -- but this is not directly comparable to Borregaard's mix of softwood sulfite. This is a softwood Kraft mill. But still, this will have a huge impact on the market balance in the Specialty Cellulose business going forward.

In addition to these 5 pulp mills -- 5 players with pulp mills. There is also some cotton linter pulp in this particular market, but altogether, combined, the market is 1.6 million tonnes and roughly 10% capacity will now be removed if and when Georgia-Pacific goes -- follows through with this announcement, which is expected to happen later this year.

Then on to the Fine Chemicals market. The sales came in at the same level that we saw in the same quarter last year. Behind the numbers, we have increased sales prices for bioethanol as we have seen throughout this year. However, as we guided for, after the second quarter, we saw a weaker product mix and lower deliveries of Fine Chemical intermediates. But in summary, another strong quarter for the Fine Chemicals business and also a positive FX impact in this area.

Then I will conclude my part of the presentation with the outlook for the remainder of the year. And in BioSolutions, we expect that the diversified market strategy will continue to mitigate effects of the slowdown that we see across certain markets. And the sales volume in the fourth quarter is expected to be in the range of 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes.

In BioMaterials, the sales volume in the Q4 is expected to be in line with Q4 '22. So we sort of have seen throughout this year that it's been quite comparable volumes to the last -- the previous year. However, the sales volume of highly specialized grades is expected to be slightly higher than it was in the third quarter this year.

Fine Chemicals. The sales prices for advanced bioethanol is fixed for the full year. So we will have the same good prices in the fourth quarter as we have seen in the third quarter. But in Fine Chemical intermediates, we expect higher deliveries and improved product mix compared to the third quarter that we report today.

Then for the sake of good order, I want to just remind you that there are a few things that normally occurs in the fourth quarter. Energy prices and energy-related raw materials are typically seasonally increase in pricing in the fourth quarter. And also, this is normally, if you look at our history since we were listed, this is usually our weakest quarter because we have the annual maintenance stop, which is ongoing or just being completed at the Sarpsborg site, which is roughly 1 week downtime. And we also normally see higher energy consumption because of weather temperatures and increased labor costs because of the vacation pay accounting.

Finally, cost inflation, interest rates and uncertainty in the global economy may still impact our markets, and we continue to follow that closely and make the right adjustments as we see fit.

So that completes the outlook. And I will hand over to Per Bjarne Lyngstad for the financial performance.

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Thank you, Per, and good morning, everyone. Borregaard's operating revenues in the third quarter by 2% compared with the same quarter last year, mainly as a result of lower sales volume to certain applications and a weaker product mix.

EBITDA increased by NOK 48 million to NOK 482 million.

Biomaterials and Fine Chemicals had a result improvements, while BioSolutions had a decrease.

Higher sales prices, currency effects and lower energy costs were partly offset by increased wood and labor costs and lower sales volume in the quarter. The net currency impact was NOK 40 million positive compared with the third quarter of 2022.

In the proposed national budget for Norway, a change in the CO2 compensation scheme will have a negative impact of approximately NOK 25 million on Borregaard's EBITDA for 2023 compared with the previously calculated compensation. The reduction in the CO2 compensation for the first 3 quarters of 2023 is reflected in the third quarter results.

The EBITDA margin was strong, just about 28% in the third quarter, 3.3 percentage points above the third quarter of last year.

Earnings per share were at NOK 2.38 in the quarter compared with NOK 2.40 last year.

In BioSolutions, operating revenues were 5% below the third quarter of 2022, mainly due to lower sales volume. EBITDA was NOK 235 million compared with NOK 261 million in the third quarter last year. Higher sales prices, reduced energy costs and a positive net currency impact were more than offset by reduced sales volume, lower contribution from traded vanillin products and cost inflation in general. The EBITDA margin was close to 25%, more or less in line with the third quarter last year and the previous quarter.

The operating revenues in BioMaterials increased by 2% compared with the same quarter last year due to higher prices and currency effects. EBITDA reached NOK 161 million compared with NOK 101 million in the third quarter last year. The EBITDA improvement was a result of lower energy costs, positive net currency effects and higher sales prices. Higher wood costs, a weaker product mix and cost inflation in general were more than offset by reduced energy costs. The EBITDA margin in BioMaterials increased to 28.3%, close to 9 percentage points above last year.

In Fine Chemicals, the operating revenues were in line with the same quarter last year. EBITDA increased by NOK 14 million to NOK 86 million. The result improvement was due to increased sales prices for bioethanol and a positive net currency impact. However, Fine Chemical intermediates had a weaker result. And the weaker result in Fine Chemical intermediates was due to a weaker product mix and lower deliveries, partly offset by reduced raw material costs. The net -- the EBITDA margin in Fine Chemicals was 43%, 7 percentage points above the third quarter last year.

The net currency impact on EBITDA was, as I said, approximately NOK 40 million positive compared with the same quarter last year. The positive impact came from a weaker Norwegian kroner, which weakened by approximately 8% compared with the same quarter last year using Borregaard's currency basket. The impact from a weaker Norwegian kroner was partly offset by increased hedging losses. Hedging losses were NOK 62 million in the quarter, compared with a loss of NOK 23 million in the third quarter last year. Using currency rates as of yesterday, the net currency impact for the full year is estimated to be positive by approximately NOK 230 million. The corresponding impact for the fourth quarter is estimated to be approximately NOK 35 million compared with the fourth quarter of 2022.

Borregaard had a cash flow from operating activities of NOK 526 million in the third quarter. The strong cash flow was a result of a reduction in net working capital and the cash effect from an improved EBITDA, partly offset by increased interest expenses.

Investments were NOK 130 million in the quarter. The largest expenditure were related to investments at the Sarpsborg site to reduce CO2 emissions, improve energy flexibility and efficiency and specialization projects within BioSolutions. The net interest-bearing debt was reduced by as much as NOK 339 million in the quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Borregaard was well capitalized with an equity ratio of 51% and a leverage ratio, which is net interest-bearing debt over EBITDA of NOK 1.03 billion.

And that concludes today's presentation. Per Sørlie and I will now be ready to answer any questions, both from the audience present here in Oslo and from those who follow the webcast. Our Director, Investor Relations, Knut-Harald Bakke will moderate webcast questions.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Thank you. We'll start with the questions from the webcast and first question from Fabian Jorgensen from Carnegie on volume development. What is your current take on volume development for 2024?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, the Borregaard concept is to always run our facilities flat out. We never do any capacity management. And that's because of the high level of integration and the core product concept that we have. So we really cannot accept that we reduce production rates across the system. So the answer to that is to manage that flexibility and manage the markets through a very diversified product portfolio. So as always, our expectation is that we will have 100% operating rate, and we will find outlets for different products.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Second question also from Mr. Jorgensen of Carnegie. What do you believe are the primary effects for Borregaard should GP close its plant later this year, positive on price, volumes or both?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, it's -- like I said we presented in my presentation earlier on, it's not a direct match in terms of technology and -- technologies, which means that Normally, GP Foley is not our primary competitor. However, like I said, this has an impact of roughly 10% on the market balance as such and it will most likely bring the market into a fairly tight balance going forward. And our expectation in the long term has been due to growth that there will be a tight market, if you look 3 to 5 years up ahead. Now we have to expect that this will happen earlier because of this tightening of the market -- the supply side of the market.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Third question from Zino Engdalen Ricciuti of Handelsbanken. It's twofold. How much of the negative volume development in BioSolutions is explained by construction weakening further compared with a slowdown in industrial and other specialty applications?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, I mean, the -- if you look at -- I think that 1 quarter may not be representative of the total development. If you look at the full year, it's certainly construction that explains most of the deviations. There are variations between quarters. As an example, the battery segment has been quite good this year. But in 1 quarter, you may have lower deliveries than in other quarters. So these are more, I would say, variations between quarters. The construction explains most of the reduced demand.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

And the second part of the question, what contribution from lower energy prices do you expect in Q4 compared with the same quarter last year?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

We expect energy prices, energy cost to be lower than last year. I don't want to quantify it because there are still a lot of uncertainties about energy prices in the fourth quarter. But I think we will see -- as it looks today, it will be quite somewhat lower than what we had in the fourth quarter last year. What we have to remember also is that we had extremely low energy spot prices in the third quarter. The rainstorm Hans had an impact on electricity prices in Norway and also LNG prices were low in the relevant months for the third quarter. Remember that we have 1 month delay on LNG prices also. So we will see an increased energy costs compared with the third quarter.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Fourth question from Andres Castanos of Berenberg. Can you please comment on the demand from your specialty end markets, particularly agriculture?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Well, we have certainly noted that several chemical companies have come out with profit warnings related to the agriculture market. If you look at our situation this year, in total, like we commented also after the second quarter, the volumes sold into agriculture, and we have literally hundreds of products going into agriculture, are quite balanced compared to the last year. Also, I say that the contribution from the agricultural market is better this year than it was last year.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Fifth question from [indiscernible] of Arctic Asset Management. Other chemical and specialty cellulose companies have pointed to customer destocking, do you see signs this is coming to an end?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

I don't want to give any predictions on that. And the reason for that is that the specialty cellulose producers are fairly way back in the value chain and you cannot trust signals from the customers because they want to keep their options open as well. So -- but our take on this is that the ether market for construction is in a poor state and we haven't seen any indications that, that will change in the short term. But there are other markets like we have talked about in the past, like casings, sausage casings that are increasing a lot during a recession or a downturn like we see today.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Sixth question from Fabian Jorgensen of Carnegie. Do you see potential to shift more construction volumes in BioSolutions to other applications? Is there a difference between your flexibility in BioMaterials and BioSolutions?

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Yes. I mean the -- we came out 5, 6 years ago and said that we would like to take the exposure in construction down in BioSolutions and subsequently, we have closed down Spain and South Africa. So right now, we have an exposure into construction that we are satisfied with. I mean, the revenues, the exposure is in the range of 10% to 15%. Even inside that 10% to 15% is not concrete. It's quite some specialized segments there as well. So we think that we are comfortable with that level of exposure into construction. So we feel that we have delivered and succeeded with our ambition in that area.

When you compare BioMaterials and BioSolutions, of course, we have 3,000 customers and more than 600 products in BioSolutions in [ split ] cellulose, we have like 10 important customers and some other customers as well. So I mean there's quite a different dynamic between those markets.

But having said that, I think that this year, in particular, shows that we have the ability to move also between segments in BioMaterials. The ether market, which is 1 of Borregaard's really key markets has been really down this year, but still we have delivered very good results, and we have managed to move material or volume into other segments.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

And now we would like to open up the floor for the physical audience here in Oslo, if there are any questions?

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

Yes. Question, Magnus Rasmussen from SEB. A question on the outlook. Do you feel -- because now we have an actual figure in BioSolutions, is that changed from what you envisioned in the outlook from the second quarter where you gave a more vague volume guidance of, I think, slightly lower volumes than last year? Or is it at the same level?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Yes. It's slightly lower now than what we expected 3 months ago. And of course, that's natural because of the lower volume in the quarter also that -- than what we guided for. So we don't think that we will catch up the lower sales volume in the -- that we had in the third quarter in the fourth quarter.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

And on CO2 compensation, I believe you said there's a NOK 25 million reduction for the full year. Does that mean you have an impact this quarter of 25 divided by 4 x 3 for the first 3?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

That's correct. About NOK 19 million lower result than what we would have had if this hadn't come. And also NOK 13 million of that is a reversal from the first half of the year.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

Yes. And can you remind us also what is the total CO2 compensation you're expecting this year?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

We are expecting now slightly above NOK 70 million. Of course, the final amount will be decided at the end of the year when we see the actual energy consumption.

[Magnus Rasmussen, analyst]

And 1 final question from me on working capital because you are running, as you say, always, more or less on full capacity and volumes are down. But still, you have a working capital release. Can you just explain that?

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Yes. What you're hinting at, I think, is inventories that you can see from the balance sheet is slightly up. But the main reduction this quarter came from accounts receivable, and that, of course come from lower sales in the quarter. So that's the main explanation for the reduction in working capital this quarter.

[Knut-Harald Bakke, executive]

Any other questions? That concludes the Q&A session for the third quarter of 2023.

[Per A Sorlie, executive]

Thank you.

[Per Bjarne Lyngstad, executive]

Thank you.