Bluenord ASA

OSE:BNOR

Earnings Call Analysis

BlueNord Sets Ambitious Growth and Dividend Plans

In 2023, BlueNord delivered strong financial results with revenues of $184 million, an EBITDA of $95 million, and operational cash flow of $104 million. Production reached 24,900 barrels per day, at the upper guidance level, even without the expected contribution from the Halfdan infill well. Tyra Redevelopment is set to more than double the net production, enhancing BlueNord's portfolio with a production peak forecast at 55,000 barrels per day in 2025. A new dividend policy aims to distribute 50%-70% of operational cash flow from 2024 to 2026, targeting significant returns to shareholders against a current equity value of around $1.2 billion. Future investments will ensure value maximization and a conservative balance sheet. The first shareholder distribution is expected in Q3 2024, coinciding with financial refinements, such as maintaining a $1.1 billion RBL facility and addressing the BNOR14 bond.

Strategic Capital Structure Refinement Ahead of Shareholder Distributions

BlueNord is strategically refining its capital structure, with the refinance of the RBL facility and revising the terms of BNOR14 bond, to enable meaningful shareholder distributions expected to commence in Q3 2024.

Robust Production Performance and Asset Efficiency

BlueNord reported strong production in 2023, netting 24,900 barrels per day, exhibiting resilience with only a 4% annual decline in mature asset production, due in part to high operational efficiency.

Operational Highlights and Future Outlook

Operational work in 2023, like well interventions on Dan, has led to increased production. The Halfdan reroute completed eliminated routine flaring. For 2024, the company expects to double its production rate with the Tyra project contributing significantly to reaching 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Additional infill drilling is expected to maintain a low development cost under $13 per barrel.

Financial Prowess and Unit Cost Optimizations

The start-up of Tyra and continued drilling will help reduce unit operating costs to $13 per barrel of oil equivalent (BOE). BlueNord expects to spend $128 million on Tyra during 2024, with a wider capital expenditure range for 2024 estimated between $185 million and $215 million.

Infill Drilling and Pipeline Pressure Management

Post-2025 production is projected to be around 50,000 barrels per day. Drilling on Halfdan infill wells commenced, with production expected in April, and other initiatives such as tapping into Tyra 2 showcase smart resource management.

Shareholder Return Strategy

The company will predominantly focus on dividends for shareholder returns, expecting to distribute between 50% to 70% of the operating cash flow. The make-whole amount will be paid to address BNOR14 bond repayment. The company plans to tie the dividend calculation to the full cash flow result of 2024, suggesting a strong focus on shareholder value.

Capital Expenditure Guidance and Hedging Strategy

With a range of $185 million to $215 million on CapEx for 2024, investment continues in smaller projects, the HEMJ well, and further infill wells subject to final investment decision (FID). The company currently has sufficient hedging in place and is not looking to increase it in the short term.

Updated Reserve Base and Production Targets

BlueNord is drilling the Harald East Middle Jurassic well as the first Tyra satellite infill well. Other infill wells at Tyra Southeast and Roar are being matured, which will impact reserves and production in 2024 and 2025. The company is on track for the first gas from Tyra by the end of March 2024.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q4

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We'll shortly present our fourth quarter and full-year results for 2023, walking you through what's been a period of strong performance for BlueNord, as well as giving you much more insight into what you should expect from us during the remainder of 2024.And on that point, before we start going through the slides, I want to spend a few moments on the outlook for BlueNord. Completion of the Tyra Redevelopment Project is a pivotal moment for us. And in March of this year, we will achieve a milestone that we've been working towards since 2019. Of course, this is important in and of itself, as it will more than double our net production, but its contribution to BlueNord goes way beyond the simple addition of volumes.With Tyra on stream, we can also deliver on one of our core commitments and start returning capital to our shareholders. In that vein, we have today, for the first time, communicated our proposed dividend policy for 2024 through 2026. There's more detail to come later in the presentation, but what I can tell you now is that the core principle is remarkably simple. From a base of significant free cash flow, our objective is to distribute as much of this as we can, while still maintaining a conservative balance sheet. Now, let me finish this introduction by noting that we will have Q&A at the end, so please feel free to submit your questions as we go through the presentation.And with that, let's turn to the first slide and walk through the highlights for Q4. Starting with production, our average rate for both Q4 2023 and the year as a whole was 24,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This was at the upper end of our guidance, which is particularly impressive, considering it was achieved without additional volumes from the first Halfdan infill well that was originally planned to come in when we set that guidance during 2023.With this, we continue to build our track record of consistent performance, which is due in no small part to the meaningful success we've seen from our ongoing maintenance and optimization programs. While the Noble Reachers carrying out these programs, we also have a second rig, the Shelf Drilling Winner, targeting our portfolio of short cycle infill well opportunities. While the operator is continually optimizing the drilling sequence, the first of these wells was spud on Halfdan in 2023 and is expected on stream in April of this year.The next well in the sequence will be HEMJ, Harald East Middle Jurassic, which was sanctioned early in 2024 and is expected to be drilled in the middle of this year. Marianne will talk more about Tyra, but I will simply say that we are in the final stages of the project. First gas is expected next month. And once on stream, we expect a 4-month ramp-up to maximum technical capacity.In terms of track record, I'm also happy to report again today that the strong operational performance we have seen has translated into positive financial results. We recorded revenues of $184 million and EBITDA of $95 million during the quarter and generated $104 million of operational cash flow. As a result of this, we exit the period with liquidity from cash and undrawn RBL of $317 million.Now, let's turn over to a brief summary of BlueNord's portfolio in a nutshell. BlueNord holds a 36.8% non-operated working interest in the Danish Underground Consortium, which is operated by TotalEnergies. The DUC has 4 hubs, 3 of which are on production and one of which, Tyra, is being redeveloped. Our portfolio has direct export routes to Continental Europe through pipelines to Denmark and Holland. From this operational base, we have 2P reserves of roughly 180 million barrels and 2C resources of more than 200 million barrels. Of this 2C, roughly 40 million barrels is defined as what we call near-term 2C. That means that they are associated with projects that will be on stream by the end of 2030. This gives us a long-term profile that will see BlueNord net production, which is expected to peak at more than 55,000 barrels per day in 2025, still be above 40,000 barrels a day in 2030.We can now turn over to talk through how our strategy is set and how that maximizes what we can deliver from our underlying asset base. So, you've already heard this morning some about the exciting developments that we have within our business in the near term. But there's also an important point here, which is that there are some things that you shouldn't expect to change. And one of those is that we remain focused, focused on maximizing production, focused on maximizing our cash flow to all stakeholders and focused on maximizing our distributions to our shareholders. How we go about delivering these also hasn't changed.We do this by delivering operationally, with strong production driven by an active operator who is mitigating the near-term natural decline, supported by the execution of short-cycle investment opportunities. And if you think about what we've already delivered here, we have now had 12 quarters in a row of production that has been either at or above guidance. We also do this by delivering Tyra, where the focus is now on making sure that the project is delivered in a way that maximizes its near-term and long-term contribution to BlueNord's portfolio by increasing our net production, by lowering our unit OpEx and by lowering our emissions intensity.Finally, we do this by delivering our long-term potential. Our portfolio in the DUC contains a number of attractive organic growth opportunities that offer the potential to continue to mitigate the natural decline to the end of the 2020s and maximize the value of our operational exposure.And if we turn on to the next slide, we can start thinking about how we look to balance further investments against returning cash to shareholders. I can safely say that this isn't the first time that I've stood here to tell you about how we will allocate capital when Tyra's on stream. But what it is, is the first time I've done so while being able to talk with the benefit of a distribution policy that I firmly believe is consistent with what we've said throughout. The framework you can see here is designed to ensure we achieve 3 main things. One, we maximize the contribution from our underlying portfolio. This, in turn, helps us maintain a conservative balance sheet, and then we return as much of the remaining cash as possible to our shareholders. And that really is one of the core messages that you'll hear today.If we now return to point 1 on that list, which was maximizing what we get from the DUC, on the basis of this, we expect that some measured reinvestment will be attractive. And what you can rest assured from our side is that the decisions that we take here will be taken through the lens of not only what impact do they have on all the factors I've just mentioned, but also predominantly whether or not they are accretive to our distribution profile.Before going into too much detail on that point though, let's turn to the next page and start at the beginning by looking at our expected cash flow generation. With Tyra on stream and taking account of factors like our attractive tax position, our cash flow generation potential to 2042 is significant. Our distribution policy is very much built upon this, because it's the long-term nature of that cash flow that supports our objectives of prioritizing near-term shareholder returns. That said, we don't want to look at shareholder returns in isolation. They also need to be considered alongside our objective of maintaining a conservative balance sheet. And one of the ways that you can do this is with an underlying portfolio that continues to be valuable for as long as possible. And that's what measured reinvestment helps to deliver. And we will be focused on ensuring that this balance is correctly struck.Now, let's talk about the distribution profile itself in some more detail. The distribution policy we're announcing today is a big step for us in delivering our commitment to material shareholder returns. It's what we've spoken about at length, and I'm happy today to be able to give some more detail on what we will deliver to our shareholders. For 2024 to 2026, we will target returning 50% to 70% of our operational cash flow. And while we're not guiding on the dollar value of this distribution explicitly, the chart you can see at the bottom of the page should give you some sense of the levels that we expect to be able to achieve. And 50% to 70% in this context should also be considered against our current equity value of roughly $1.2 billion.Looking beyond this introductory period and to 2026 and beyond, we will continue to manage our business in a way that's consistent with the desire to maintain a meaningful returns profile. We'll make all future investment and capital structure decisions accordingly. And our goal here will also be supported by the fact that from 2024 to 2026, we do intend already to return a significant portion of our current equity value to shareholders.Finally, we also anticipate that a portion of these distributions will come in the form of share buybacks, with further detail to come prior to our first distribution. And now that you know what we intend to do, I'd like to turn over to the next page to walk you through, firstly, what steps are necessary from our side to achieve the policy that we're laying out today. And finally, when you can expect distributions to start.BlueNord intends to reset its capital structure during 2024 in order to do 3 key things. One, optimize our access to secured debt capacity, which continues to be meaningful given the stage of the asset life cycle we are currently in with Tyra just starting up. Two, ensure that any distribution restrictions in our capital structure are consistent with BlueNord's cash generation outlook. And three, maintain a conservative balance sheet on a through-cycle basis, which in the long term will support our desire to continue meaningful distributions in 2027 and beyond.To do this, we'll start by the refinancing of our existing RBL facility. This process is already underway, and we're working towards a new facility that we expect will mature at the end of the decade and start to amortize from early 2027. Based on the positive discussions we've had to date, we expect to at least maintain our current USD1.1 billion facility, with the potential for it to be expanded further supported by our secured borrowing capacity. And this is a process that we expect to be finalized during Q2 2024.Then once the RBL has been completed, we intend to focus on addressing BNOR14. Since it was issued in 2019, BNOR14 has been an important part of our capital structure. However, as it came into existence significantly before Tyra was operational, its covenants are not reflective of the forward credit strength of our business today. And as a result, we intend to address this bond prior to making our first distribution. We'll come back to the market in due course. But what I can say today is that our current assumption is that we will repay this bond prior to making that first distribution. And bringing all of this together now, based on our current plan and subject to Tyra completion being achieved in line with the current timetable, we expect to make our first distribution to shareholders in the third quarter of 2024.With that, I'll now hand you over to Marianne to give you some more detail on our recent operational performance. Thank you.

[Marianne Eide, executive]

Thank you, Euan.Exciting news and underpinning our distributions are, of course, the start-up of Tyra, continued strong production from our base assets and continued drilling activity, which is what I will cover today. So in 2023, we had another year of excellent production performance, where we delivered a net production of 24,900 barrels with 25% gas and 75% oil. As you can see from the plot, we have managed to mitigate decline from our mature assets through well activities and also the high operational efficiency. Between 2021 and 2023, we have only seen a 4% annual decline, which is excellent performance and demonstrate why it is so important to maintain this high level of well activity.Some of the highlights for 2023, where, as Euan also mentioned, that we did manage to achieve our production budget without the planned contribution from new wells. We had a high number of well interventions in particular on Dan, where we used the Maersk Reacher for WROM activity and which led to an increase in Dan production in 2023 compared with 2022. We had a significant amount of work planned for 2023. TotalEnergies, the operator, managed to reduce the duration of shutdowns and hence, the impact on production was reduced. One of the projects we executed was the Halfdan reroute, which eliminated routine flaring in the DUC from the middle of 2023.And I will now take you through 2024, and we have a really exciting year ahead. So, 2024 is the year where BlueNord will double its production rate with Tyra coming on stream next month during the month of March. For 2024, we have elected to give some more details on our guidance. We have a lot of movement and a stable increase throughout the year. So, we are starting relatively low in Q1 at 22 to 23 mboe per day. We have a cyclic effect from well stimulations. And right now, we are on a low with respect to remaining effect from stimulations performed previously on Dan and Gorm.Second quarter will have the HBA-27 well on stream, as well as initial effects from well interventions on Halfdan. From Tyra, we expect a modest volume contribution due to low operational efficiency early in the ramp up. Third quarter, we are maintaining our base production, and we then expect a significant production from Tyra. However, we do see some uncertainty with respect to the Tyra operational efficiency. Fourth quarter, we do expect Tyra to provide more than 50% of the BlueNord production with a good operational efficiency. In the fourth quarter, we also have an upside if we are successful on the Harald East Middle Jurassic well. Our exit rate in 2024 will be above 50,000 barrels of oil equivalents to BlueNord.I will now go into some more detail on infill drilling, which is still key to maximize value and reduce decline from the DUC fields. Drilling operations on the first Halfdan infill well were completed in January, and we are now waiting on the stimulation vessel, which has been delayed due to bad weather. Production will commence in April. Currently, we are doing critical P&A work on Dan, with the Shelf Drilling Winner and next well in the infill drilling sequence to be spudded is the Harald East Middle Jurassic well. This is a well with a large subsurface uncertainty, but also a really high potential being drilled into a sandstone and to a higher pressure Jurassic reservoir. And it will produce, through the Harald field producing into Tyra, if successful.The infill well sequence is dynamic, and we will always use all technical information available, whether it's production data, reservoir pressure, 4D seismic, to ensure that we pick the highest value targets to invest in. And our infill drilling portfolio has an expected unit development cost below $13 per barrel. Tyra on stream will also open up a lot of targets. The TotalEnergies team are doing subsurface work on a wide range of future wells, both on Dan and Halfdan, as well as the Tyra fields.A lot is happening on Tyra right now. What we hear from the operator is that we have a very motivated offshore team who are working very hard to ensure a safe and efficient start-up of Tyra in March. We have now had 75 days without any recordable incidents, which is excellent performance at this stage of the project. The Tyra Redevelopment is of strategic importance and will provide necessary gas to Denmark and Europe and will transform BlueNord as a company. We will be able to unlock significant volumes from Tyra and the satellites with modern and efficient processing facilities. CO2 intensity from the BlueNord operations will reduce with around 30%. We will also double the BlueNord production and expect to produce 55,000 BOE per day net in '25 with a gas share of 45%.The increased production from Tyra also means that we will reduce our unit operating cost to $13 per BOE. So, we are getting ready for first gas export from Tyra. The TotalEnergies team have been working very hard to finalize the safety and emergency systems, and that is going well, with the critical deluge or firewater test successfully passed around a week ago. The team is now focused on punch list closure, which is correcting smaller issues that has been discovered through testing.As of 1st of February, the project handed over the overall responsibility for Tyra to the TotalEnergies Denmark operations team, which is also an important milestone, an indication of how close we are to first gas. On the satellite and wells area, unplugging is progressing well on Tyra West, and we now have 7 wells reinstated. We are also ready to produce both from Harald and the Tyra Southeast satellite fields.On the next slide, I'll go into some more details on the sequence of events between now and when we have first gas export. Prior to first gas, approvals need to be secured from the various Danish governmental bodies and also from DNV, our independent verification body on the Tyra project. The operator is doing a good job in this area and is keeping us up-to-date on the status. When the approvals are in place, methanol will be filled. Methanol is needed to ensure a stable flow from the satellite fields, in particular during start-up. Filling on methanol will trigger the hot platform safety protocol. And when methanol is filled, gas will be started to be introduced into the process.The next step is then firing up one of the gas export trains for export of gas to Nybro in Denmark. It will take around 3 days from your start gas export to the gas reaches Nybro because we need to pressure up the pipeline. We do have an adjusted cost estimate for Tyra. We have seen some increased costs due to a recent increase in offshore overs and also in the cost of offshore overs.For year-end '23, we have an expected remaining cost of $128 million to be spent during 2024. With respect to external communication ahead of first gas, this will be closely coordinated with the operator, TotalEnergies. I expect the next external communication to be around the time of methanol filling, which could be approximately 2 weeks ahead of first gas export.So with this status update, I'm handing you over to Chief Corporate Officer, Cathrine, who will talk you through ESG and growth.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Thank you very much, Marianne, and good morning to everyone.I will not spend too much time on this slide as our key objective is to contribute to energy security to Europe, while at the same time, do what we can as a company to support the energy transition remains the same. We have, however, taken one important step within our involvement in CCS through our ownership in CarbonCuts. In CarbonCuts, we're assessing what we think can be a fantastic onshore storage project called Project Ruby. And in January this year, CarbonCuts submitted a license application to the DEA, where the vision is to store about 1 million tonnes of CO2 per year from 2030 in the geological Rodby Structure on Lolland. This is located at the south tip of Denmark and very close to the German borders.The location of the potential storage site opens up opportunities for several corporations with countries around the Baltic Sea, which themselves have limited options for CO2 storage. The award of storage license from the DEA is expected sometime this year. And our view remains that CCS will be an important solution on a global scale, as it is the one true emissions removing activity, which does not compromise the security of supply.Moving on to our long-term plan. You can see that we both have infill wells and development projects. This plan is reflective of what the objective of the partnership is; to maximize economic recovery from the DUC. The infill wells are expected to increase gas production over the next few years. And the first well, which was spudded last year, we expect to have first production from in April this year. In January, we also announced that we had taken FID on the very promising HEMJ well, which will be spudded during this summer.In addition to the other planned infill wells and as also mentioned by Marianne, Tyra unlocks further infill drilling opportunities with 6 wells under maturation. In the second bucket in the long-term plan, which you can see far right on the page, we have the 3 development projects; Valdemar Bo South, Adda and Halfdan North. The projects will ensure that the high level of production in BlueNord is sustained over time and beyond the end of this decade. These are very cash-generative projects, which will come with robust IRRs that can tackle even the most challenging commodity price environments.Production from the 2 first projects can also be tied back to Tyra 2, which is an excellent way of utilizing the new facility on Tyra and backfill its process capacity. Our revised production profile underpins the significant step change our business will face this year with Tyra on stream and also infill volumes, bringing our production to well above net 40,000 barrels per day.Next year, with the full year of Tyra production and further infill volumes, we expect our production to be just north of 55,000 barrels per day. After 2025, in the following 5 years, we expect to produce circa 50,000 barrels per day based on our base production, optimization work and our in-plan projects. However, we also see an opportunity to maintain the peak rate we will be seeing next year until the end of this decade. We will do so by adding identified projects that are currently out of plan, but which we will progress if deemed attractive from an economic perspective.As we have today finally announced our distributions policy, this long-term production profile will support stream to our shareholders such that it is not only kept high for a few years following the delivery of Tyra, but it also allows us to sustain a robust capacity longer term.And with that, I will say thank you for listening and pass over the word to our CFO, Jacqueline, who will take you through the financials.

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

Thank you, Cathrine.So, on the financials for the fourth quarter and 2023. We have rounded off the year with a final quarter that is consistent with what we have seen for most of the year. That is a result that reflects excellent underlying asset operating performance. The commodity price environment has been softer for gas than expected, but oil has remained relatively stable for the most part and whilst not at the levels we saw in 2022, the result is still strong, and we benefited this year also from positive hedging opportunities, particularly taken in gas.For the quarter specifically, effective oil and gas prices were lower than the third quarter, as well as lower liftings on oil, but that's more of a timing issue and it leaves us with a small under-lift at the end of the year. The revenue result for the fourth quarter was $184 million and $795 million for the full year. The message on our operating costs has also been one of consistency, with the inclusion all year of activities related to well recovery and optimization, which is supporting the strong base production performance. As stated last quarter and ending as expected, OpEx is $296 million for the year, and the OpEx per BOE is $33 per BOE on average. As a result of the above, the overall contribution margin remains significantly positive with a reported EBITDA of $95 million for the quarter and $421 million for the full year.Now if we turn to the summary income statement, you can see the full earnings position, which shows a positive bottom line result for the year. The consistent operating performance discussed on the previous slide leads us to the EBITDA result that you can see here. Below EBITDA, it's worth noting as the year closes, the benefit we continue to get from the interest rate swap put in place in mid-2021. This provides a $37 million saving on interest expense on the RBL this year, and is a key reason for our stable interest expense during a year of rising interest rates.Finally, tax expense for the full year reflects an effective tax rate of 51%. We note that tax expense can fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, and this quarter was affected by a more substantial foreign exchange movement on tax losses, which we are required to update for the full year. But overall, a positive net result for the quarter of $27 million and $82 million for the full year.If we now consider the balance sheet, the main items to highlight here are also around tax. So, you can see our deferred tax position increases, but this is because we have solidarity contribution in 2023. So loss utilization is lower, but it is carried forward for future years. In terms of taxes payable, we made a $190 million payment in November, and that was for the remaining 2022 Chapter 2 tax, and this correlates with the reduction in cash balances also seen in this quarter. The taxes payable balance at the end of the fourth quarter now includes our expected Chapter 2 taxes payable for 2023. This will be due in November of 2024, and the remaining solidarity contribution, which is due in June 2024. Of the total of $140 million payable, our current estimate is $130 million, is an actual cash tax payable. There continues to be no regular Chapter 3 taxes payable for the year ahead.Turning to cash. We continue to report a solid operating cash flow before tax, which is $104 million, that's for this quarter and $480 million in the full year. After taxes paid of $230 million, which relate primarily to the 2022 result and financing cash flows, there remains $246 million available prior to CapEx spend. This cash generated has been utilized primarily on Tyra Redevelopment project of $217 million as well as some other investments, including, of course, the first Halfdan infill well, some other minor CapEx and abandonment, as well as the final consideration that was paid to Shell of $25 million.Overall, we finished the year with a cash outflow of $102 million, which is net of a $50 million drawdown on the RBL in the fourth quarter. Overall, however, the liquidity position is still robust. We have $167 million in cash available and $150 million of undrawn RBL facility. So, this maintains our fully funded outlook for the Tyra Redevelopment project with a closing available liquidity of $317 million.Talking about cash, leads us on to our capital structure. And as Euan mentioned earlier, we are already working towards resetting the capital structure, that's ready for Tyra restarting in 2024 and unlocking our first distribution. There are no changes on this slide yet, but our step-by-step approach starts with refinancing the RBL with an aim to have this completed in Q2 2024. We are targeting the updated RBL to at least maintain the current size, and we are working towards amortization starting later as well as maturity moving out.Once we have finalized the RBL, we will work through addressing BNOR14. These changes should reflect a capital structure that is fit for purpose for BlueNord, both in terms of debt levels and flexibility. Without any changes to the capital structure, we still remain fully funded to deliver Tyra II, including no principal maturities prior to first gas. And our net debt for this quarter is $1.1 billion compared with $890 million at the end of the third quarter.So, a final point to highlight is on the commodity price environment. We haven't changed our approach to hedging this quarter, but we are reviewing ahead of Tyra first gas, which is around the corner. As a reminder, the primary purpose of the price hedging is to provide visibility over future cash flows, and we continue to add volumes where it makes sense to do so. Our oil hedging remains consistent with some hedging added to the second half of 2025 and all of '26.Regarding gas, we have not hedged additional volumes since our last quarter presentation since we already have adequate hedging in place for now and the price environment has been soft. We are still currently showing volumes of gas hedged prior to Tyra first gas, and we will begin to incorporate Tyra volumes as we see the ramp-up progress. So, aligned with our latest production guidance, 2024 is hedged approximately 50% on oil and 35% on gas, excluding Tyra.We will also continue to take advantage of the market and add hedges when it looks attractive, but also do that keeping in mind our policy framework. So, you can see from the chart the average hedge price for oil, it's ranging from $61.3 per barrel in Q1 '24 through to $74.4 per barrel in Q2 '26. The average hedge price for gas remains above current market spot and forward prices for the coming seasons. But unfortunately, the favorable hedges we had, they do drop off in summer of '24, but we still have pricing that is around EUR 45 to the low EUR 50s per megawatt hour. This hedging approach continues to support our balance sheet and capital structure, and it helps to bring a level of certainty over our funding position.So in summary, 2023 has been a consistent year with stable earnings from a well-performing underlying asset and cash generation that supports our balance sheet. This is underpinned by a robust capital structure set to enable delivery of Tyra, and we are in the process of adapting that capital structure in the year ahead as we reach first gas and get set for our first distribution to shareholders.And with that, I will hand back to Euan for closing remarks.

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

Thank you, Jacqueline.So, you've now heard very clearly where we are and also where we're going. Well, I would be one of the first people to acknowledge that it's been a long journey. This is definitely one circumstance where the juice really is worth the squeeze, because it delivers an exciting future for us, one that we'll see by the end of '24 us having cemented our position as a material player in the European supply landscape, completed Tyra with net production above 50,000 barrels a day and importantly, having commenced distributions to shareholders. And while there are, of course, positive changes ahead, our core objective will always remain the same, delivering the value of our portfolio to all our stakeholders.And with that, I'll thank you for joining and say that I hope you leave this presentation this morning with a much clearer understanding of quite why, what BlueNord has to offer is so attractive. We'll now pause for a few seconds to allow for any additional Q&A to be submitted, and we'll be back shortly.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Thank you. And the first question, could you please elaborate how will the company utilize the deferred tax assets in the future?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, a large part of our deferred tax asset is related to tax losses, and we would expect that to be utilized over the next couple of years.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Next question. Can you confirm that repayment of BNOR14 actually means paying the make-whole payment?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

Yes. Our current assumption is that -- our current working assumption is that we will repay BNOR14 in Q3. And in order to do that, we have to pay the make-whole amount.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

For distributions, how should we expect split cash dividends and buybacks?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So the expectation is that it will be primarily dividends, but we're working through then specifically on that split.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

50% to 70% of operating cash flow, does that apply for 2024 as a whole or from Q3 '24?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, we'd expect to use the full cash flow result for '24 for the calculation for the dividend.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And why was Q4 P&L tax rate only 5%?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So there was -- we do have the tax losses, and they do need to have a foreign exchange adjustment as they are DKK denominated. So that adjustment went through, and it was larger than normal for Q4.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And what should we model as 2024 CapEx? What type of scenarios represent the low end and the high end of that range?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So, I can take that. So on Tyra, we showed a range for '24 between $128 million and $142 million, contingent on using an extension of the Floatel. The other CapEx elements that we've got for '24 is smaller projects, where we expect to spend around $30 million. We then have the already FID-ed HEMJ well with '27. And the last CapEx expenditure is a further infill well subject to FID. So, that gives a range for '24 around between $185 million and $215 million.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Does the current gas forward curve reduced appetite for hedging?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

Yes, essentially. Obviously, we do look at what our requirements are and what's required under the RBL. And right now, we have sufficient hedging in place. So, we're not doing anything above that.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Do you plan to make quarterly distribution starting from Q3? And should we expect that 50% to 70% of cash flow for the full-year 2024 to be distributed in H2 2024?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So in terms of the actual cash outflow, some of that will be a timing between '24 and then into '25 as would normally be, but it would be relating to the 2024 distribution.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

When you say that the RBL will at least have a similar size after the refinancing, do you mean that USD 1.1 billion should be available for cash drawdown or USD 1 billion, which is the case today according to Note 12?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, we're looking at maintaining a similar structure essentially on the RBL when we refinance that.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Could you provide some guidance on expected total CapEx for BlueNord in 2024 and the split, Tyra and other developments?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

I think I've answered that already with a range between $185 million and $215 million and Tyra between $128 million to $142 million.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Why was there a $200 million cash outflow in Q4 '23?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, a large part of Q4, we made a tax payment of $190 million in November, which I think we did mention was due relating to the 2022 result.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And in terms of refinancing the RBL, do you expect to refi with an improved RBL? Or are you looking to refi using the bond market?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, our first focus is on the RBL and looking to have a good position with that RBL refinancing.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And this might be repeating, but can you elaborate on which aspects you take into consideration when choosing between dividends versus buybacks? How much of the distributions can we expect in terms of buybacks? And is this subject to change over time?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So, that is something that we are working through. So, we don't have a specific split at this point in time. I think we mentioned earlier that we would see it as primarily in dividends, but we will work through the buyback side and we'll give more information in due course.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And then for Marianne, first question. Can you elaborate a bit on which infill opportunities you're looking at on Tyra? How many potential infill wells have you identified? And when do you plan to update your reserve base estimates?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

That was a big one. So on Tyra, we are, first of all, drilling the Harald East Middle Jurassic well, which is the first Tyra satellite infill well. We then are considering a redevelopment of Svend, which is a tieback to Harald. We're also looking at infill wells on Tyra Southeast and at Roar at the moment. And these will be matured during '24 and '25.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And the second question relates to Tyra first gas. The operator, TotalEnergies, expects first gas no later than 31st of March 2024. How do you assess the possibility of first gas coming in earlier in March?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So, we are working towards first gas during March, and the REMIT announcement from the operator is 31st of March.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

The handling of BNOR14, are you looking exclusively at the make-whole of BNOR14? Or is refinancing also being considered?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

The current assumption we are working with is with a make-whole of BNOR14. And I think the important point there is that the distribution policy that we've announced today, we expect to be able to deliver without a refinancing of BNOR14.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Could you give any more guidance on when in Q3 you plan on addressing BNOR14? What are the primary considerations for the specific timing?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

So the main focus for timing will be in terms of when we are able to pay a dividend. And that will be, in part, defined by when the Tyra completion test is met. So, I don't think you should expect us to be making whole BNOR14 significantly in advance of when we can pay a first dividend, and that's really the main driver from a timing perspective.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And I think that was the final question. Thank you, everyone, for listening in.