Bluenord ASA

OSE:BNOR

Earnings Call Analysis

Strong Production Performance and Positive Financial Results

The company demonstrated robust operational performance with a production level of 24,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day, reflecting aggressive maintenance and optimization efforts, particularly noting the outperformance for October averaging over 26,000 barrels a day. Financially, the company recorded an impressive quarter with revenues of $200 million and EBITDA of $106 million, underpinned by an operational cash flow of $113 million and ending the period with $506 million in liquidity. Full-year 2023 guidance is set at 24.5 to 25.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and the company does not rely on infill drilling contributions for this target. Looking ahead, the first of the expected infill wells is scheduled to begin operations in the first quarter, contributing to a projected production increase to above 55,000 barrels per day by 2025.

Production Boost and Cost Reduction

The HCA gas lift project aims to increase production from Halfdan wells, adding 8 million barrels of oil at approximately $10 per barrel. The first well is expected on-stream in the first quarter, with another to follow in the summer. By 2025, production should nearly double to 55,000 barrels of oil equivalents (BOE) per day with a 45% gas share, transforming the company's business and reducing unit operating costs to $13 per BOE.

Strategic Focus on BlueNord and Tyra Field

With a focus on the DUC area, the company plans on the BlueNord field to boost production by 250% and maintain over 40,000 BOE per day until 2030, overcoming natural declines. In addition, three development projects—Valdemar Bo South, Adda, and Halfdan North—are set to add approximately 43 million barrels, with robust returns expected due to capital expenditures below $15 per barrel.

Financial Results and Outlook

The financial results show a marked improvement, driven by higher commodity prices, especially oil, contributing to a reported EBITDA of $106 million for the quarter. Operating costs have increased due to additional maintenance, but overall margins remain strongly positive. The tax expense is high this quarter due to prior year adjustments, but deferred tax positions are expected to benefit future years. The company reports a solid operating cash flow of $113 million this quarter and maintains a liquidity position that ensures full funding for the Tyra redevelopment, with a closing net debt position of $889 million.

Risk Management and Debt Strategy

Aiming to keep a net debt-to-EBITDAX ratio of 2x, the company plans to maintain a broadly consistent debt level in the short term, adjusting later according to investment needs. The company has hedged 50% of oil and 35% of gas for Q4 '23, and gas prices remain above market levels, securing the balance sheet. Dividend policy and total production expenses under $18 per BOE will be further clarified before Tyra's first gas. With no planned fourth-quarter shutdowns, production regularity is expected, but not at the high levels seen in October.

Production Guidance and Dividend Constraints

The expectation of an accelerated Tyra ramp-up leads to a revision of long-term production profiles, promising greater volumes for the next year. However, specific dividend distributions are constrained by a BNOR14 bond, requiring Tyra to be on stream for two quarters post-first gas before dividends can be distributed, limited to 50% of the previous year's net profit after tax.

Investment and Growth Prospects

The company has taken lessons from technical issues encountered with Halfdan infill well and is identifying concrete infill well opportunities through Tyra simulation models. No substantial inorganic growth is expected in the near term, as the focus remains on developing the DUC portfolio, and more details on 2024 capital expenditures and dividends will be provided in due course.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

Good morning, and welcome to BlueNord's earnings presentation for the third quarter of 2023. I'm pleased that you can join us this morning as we walk through our strong performance in the third quarter and also the positive outlook. As we go through, I'll hand over to Marianne, our COO, to provide you with some more operational detail, Cathrine to talk you through the long-term outlook for our business in her new role as Chief Corporate Affairs Officer, and Jacqueline, who today moves from EVP Finance to become our Chief Financial Officer, who will cover our financial performance and capital structure.

Before we go any further, I'd just like to take a moment to briefly note Jacqueline and Cathrine's new roles, which very much recognizes their strong contribution to our business so far and something that I very much look forward to continuing as we move into the production phase on Tyra and beyond.

If we move now to talk a little bit about where we are today, there are some key points that I'd like to highlight. We sit with a business that is on the cusp of significant production growth from the start of 2024. In that event, we announced this morning that we believe there will be a significantly shorter ramp-up on the Tyra project, which we expect to increase the production volumes delivered from the field during 2024. And this change also very much reflects where we are on the project.

We're close to mechanical completion and now looking at how to best deliver what is most important for us, significant volumes of gas and oil. During the quarter, we've had the benefit of more clarity on the path from first gas to plateau. And with the expectation that we can now deliver significantly more of the required offshore work to reach plateau prior to the introduction of hydrocarbons to the system, it's clear that achieving first gas in early 2024 is what will enable us to deliver earlier plateau production in Q2 2024 and increase the tangible contribution that we received from the field in 2024.

We'll open up for Q&A at the end. But before we do that, let's talk through some key highlights for the quarter in more detail.

So starting with our base business. Our production level of 24,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day was at the upper end of our guidance. This is a consistent demonstration of our track record, one of consistent performance and marks the 11th consecutive quarter where we've either been at or above our projected figures for the relevant period.

The strong performance reflects the meaningful success we've seen from ongoing maintenance and optimization programs. And we're also taking this strong trajectory into Q4, with production for October in the month to date, on average, over 26,000 barrels a day of oil equivalent. While we have one rig carrying out these optimization activities, the Noble Reacher, we also have a second rig supporting the long-standing growth focus of BlueNord.

We have a 7 infill well program in the DUC. And earlier this year, we spud the first of 2 infill wells to be drilled in 2023. Well, this first well is now expected on stream in early 2024, rather than the fourth quarter of this year. The overall theme remains that we are in the process of delivering short cycle investments with attractive economics that take advantage of a supportive market backdrop.

As I've already talked about, and Marianne will walk you through in more detail, we're also making significant progress in delivering Tyra. Progress was good in Q3 with both those activities required to achieve first gas and those necessary to hit plateau production levels being completed. And as a result, while the focus remains on achieving first gas, we're also focused on ensuring that we do so in a way that ensures we're able to maximize our 2024 production and cash flow from Tyra.

Finally, that strong operational performance that I've talked about has also translated into positive financial results. We recorded revenues of $200 million and EBITDA of $106 million during the quarter, and generated $113 million of operational cash flow. As a result, we exit the period with liquidity of $506 million. Now let's briefly turn over to summarize our portfolio.

So as most of you are probably aware, we hold a 36.8% non-operated working interest in the Total Energy's operated Danish Underground Consortium, the DUC. Three of the 4 hubs in the DUC are currently on production and the fourth Tyra will restart shortly. These offshore fields are connected to the Mainland through substantial offshore infrastructure and direct export routes to Denmark and Continental Europe.

The message that I have for you today regarding our long-term strategic plan for the DUC remains the same. We'll focus on doing what we can to support European energy security. And we do this by maximizing production to the extent that it's economic to do so, with Tyra being a good example. It will turn Denmark from a net importer of gas to a net exporter. Then the other side of that equation is that BlueNord then delivers volumes from within the EU that are more secure at a lower cost and with lower emissions intensity than comparable imports.

Combined, this makes BlueNord a strategically important player in the European energy landscape. Turning over to our strategic priorities. In terms of stability, our strategic goals remain very much the same. To deliver operationally, we have strong production driven by active reservoir management that's mitigating the natural decline. And this is an approach that in conjunction with our infill well program, we expect to see continue with high operational performance going forward.

We're also delivering Tyra. Tyra continues to significantly derisk. And it's also doing so in a way that is very supportive of our journey towards materially higher production, reduced operating costs and lower emissions intensity. Our focus is now on ensuring that we deliver Tyra in a way that maximizes both its near- and long-term contribution to the BlueNord portfolio.

Finally, we're delivering our long-term potential. Our long-term plan for maximizing economic recovery from the DUC showcased our portfolio of attractive organic growth opportunities. Combined with Tyra, delivering this will enable us to meet our commitment to maximizing shareholder value, but importantly, also shareholder returns.

And if we now turn to the next page, I'd like to walk you through how we think about capital discipline particularly in the context of further investment and distributions. So a key part of delivering to shareholders the potential of our portfolio means establishing a substantial and sustainable dividend profile. Distributions to shareholders are the #1 priority and our capital allocation framework is designed to ensure that these distributions mirror our cash generation potential, while also ensuring that we keep the value of our portfolio as high as possible for as long as possible.

With a material opportunity set, we're also clear that any future decisions that we take around investing must be evaluated based on how they could contribute, sorry, to our overall distribution capacity, both in terms of timing and quantum. And with that, I'll hand you over to Marianne to talk through operational performance during the quarter and the outlook for Tyra. Thank you.

[Marianne Eide, executive]

Thank you, Euan. Big news on Tyra today, and I'm really pleased to be able to announce a shorter ramp-up and that we will be able to increase our production from Tyra in 2024. We have continued good production from our base assets as well, and I will go into some more detail on optimization activity, which has been the enabler for the excellent production that we have seen this year.

We are continuing the trend with good operational performance from last year and earlier this year. Q3 production was 24.7 mboe per day, which is in the upper half of the guidance. We also have a very strong start of Q4 with October production to date of 26.5 mboe per day, which was really helped by well interventions on Dan and good production regularity.

I'm really pleased with the production during Q3 and that we managed to deliver the full Halfdan reroute project, scope, where Halfdan Oil is now processed at Dan rather than Gorm with a minimum of production delayed during the shutdowns and that the process and production is now stable. Full year guidance for 2023 is now 24.5 to 25.0 mboe per day. And in this number, we are not expecting any contribution from infill drilling.

Optimization activities have been crucial to delivering the production rate we have seen this year. So I think this topic deserves a little bit more attention. We got the Noble Reacher on contract in June 22, and we saw an immediate positive impact on production. And we see potential to continue with optimization activities into the 2030s.

On the graph, you can see the contribution from the various types of optimization projects that we're running. We have the standard run or well reservoir optimization management, well interventions like shutting off water, reperforating and we have the well stimulation or scale squeeze jobs that we do at regular intervals, usually every year depending on the need for each specific well.

In 2024, we also have 2 more significant optimization projects. Skill is the main field on the Gorm hub. For the skilled gas acceleration project, we will reduce water injection. This will reduce the reservoir pressure. And the result of this is that you produce more gas. The added benefit of this is that you reduce fuel consumption because you are injecting less water. And currently, we cannot export gas from Gorm, which means that we need to address gas production to how much we need for fuel, but with sale gas acceleration, we will establish a gas export route that gives us much more flexibility with respect to increased gas production from Gorm.

The HCA gas lift project will boost production from Halfdan wells with low reservoir pressure or a high water cut. In total, we are looking at planned activities, which will give us an additional 8 million barrels of oil in total at the cost of around $10 per barrel and an increased rate of 4,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day. I think this is a field that just keep on giving as long as you're willing to invest and keep a high level of activity, you will be able to identify more and more optimization projects like this.

On infill drilling, we have the shelf drilling winner on contract. And in June, we started infill drilling after a 4-year drilling break. The wells we are drilling on Halfdan are long horizontal wells, around 22,000 feet or 7,000 meters in total and the horizontal section of 12,000 feet. We have more than 50 of these long horizontal wells drilled already on the Halfdan field. For this first well, we encountered issues with the drilling equipment, which has led to a delay.

We've taken the lessons learned, addressing the drilling practices for the upcoming drilling operations to make sure that we're drilling it the right way the next time. And the operator is also drawing on their global expertise. With respect to production contribution from the first 2 Halfdan infill wells, we expect the first well to be on stream in the first quarter and we will then move to some critical P&A and come back to the next Halfdan infill well, which will then come on stream in the summer.

We also have an upcoming FID on the next 3 infill wells, the first one, Harald East Middle Jurassic, which we expect to be taken this year and then the 2 Halfdan Ekofisk wells, which we expect around year-end. For the Ekofisk wells, we are going to use the 4D seismic that we acquired in the spring this year to optimize the well locations.

As you've already heard from Euan, we have some big news on Tyra today. As we are getting closer to Tyra production, we are able to narrow down the range for first gas and more importantly, to be able to accelerate the production and cash generation by accelerating the plateau production. The Tyra redevelopment is a strategic importance and will provide necessary gas to Denmark in Europe and will transform our business in the DUC. We will be able to unlock significant volumes from Tyra and the satellites with modern and efficient processing facilities.

CO2 intensity from the BlueNord operations will reduce with around 30%. We will also almost double the BlueNord production and expect to produce 55,000 BOE per day net in 2025 with a gas share of 45%. The increased production from Tyra also means that we will reduce our unit operating cost to $13 per BOE. So we have the last summer season prior to first gas behind us and I'm pleased to say that we have completed all the weather critical structural work despite having had quite a rough summer from a weather perspective.

The highlight of the quarter is that the subsea work reconnecting the satellite fields to the Tyra East Hub is now complete. We also had excellent progress on Tyra West and also on the reinstatement of the satellite fields, which are now required to reach plateau and well reinstatement on both Tyra East and Tyra West. On Tyra East, we are in the middle of league testing, which is how we test each system to ensure that it is safe to operate.

I'm really impressed with the Total Energy safety performance on Tyra, and we're also seeing improvement in offshore productivity compared with the initial phase of offshore hookup and commissioning. So let's go into some more detail on a whole. We will manage Tyra until we are on plateau. We have adjusted our approach to startup. Previous strategy was to have a minimum of the facilities ready for first gas at the end of the year and then having a long ramp-up period where you were doing testing and commissioning in parallel with producing and exporting a gas.

We have now changed the approach for startup and we will now complete commissioning and testing on a much larger part of the process plant ahead of exporting gas. This will lead to a delay in the first gas from December '23 to early first quarter '24 with a significant acceleration of ramp up of production, which will have a positive impact on over '24 production from Tyra.

Another advantage of this new approach is that you can do more work prior to introducing gas, which is safer and much more efficient. To achieve the plateau production, you need the following 4 factors to be in place. All the TEG processing equipment with 2 export trains, gas lift compressor, 3 G2G turbine generators and the high pressure, intermediate pressure and low pressure compressors need to be in place. You then also need all the Tyra satellites to be up and running and connected.

And the major part of the Tyra production is actually coming from the satellites and not from Tyra East and Tyra West. And the Tyra satellites, they were shut off prior to construction work starting, but they have now been reinstated by the total team. You then need the Tyra East wells to be reinstated, and you need Tyra West to be ready to produce and to also have the Tyra West wells reinstated. What I would say is that we are in very good shape on all of these 4 elements with work progressing either ahead of plan or according to plan.

So today, we don't see any showstoppers in reaching a plateau in second quarter this year. With respect to cost, we have no change to the overall cost estimate and remaining CapEx for the entire project is now $142 million with the Q3 expenditure of $56 million. So with this, I'm handing over to Cathrine Torgersen.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Thank you, Marianne, and good morning to everyone. I appreciate you all taking the time to be here. So one of our key objectives is the contribution to energy security in Europe. We all know the importance of stable energy supply while at the same time, combating the climate crisis. In BlueNord, we believe we have a balanced approach to both, and I will now go through how we deliver into each. So first of all, we will deliver into the energy needs of Denmark and Europe. We are doing this today on our producing assets where proactive optimization work has mitigated natural decline for the past 2 years.

We also do it by drilling valuable infill wells to increase the gas output. But more importantly, we do this by delivering Tyra 2 early Q1 next year. Tyra will take Denmark from being a net importer of gas to being an exporter of gas. This is very important, especially as a member of the European Union. And during the past 2 years, we unfortunately due to various ad backdrops have kept seeing evidence of just how fragile the European energy market is.

Gas produced within the EU, which you can transport by pipelines, it's not only more secure, but it also comes with a lower emissions footprint than, for example, imported LNG. And then there are the activities we do to support energy transition. With natural gas being an important transition fuel, it is important to do what we can to ensure that the development and production of that gas is done efficiently and with as low as possible emissions intensity.

This is something that Tyra achieves. It's a very high tech and efficient. And once producing, it will do so with a 30% lower emissions intensity. We also do this by reducing emissions across the entire portfolio. And one very important achievement this quarter has been the completion of the Halfdan reroute. And by routing Halfdan oil to Dan, we have now eliminated routine flaring completely in the DUC.

And then looking at the energy transition through longer-term lenses, we have positioned ourselves within CCS, which we believe will be a critical solution on a more global scale. It's the one true emissions removing activity, which does not compromise security of supply. And in Project Bifrost, where together with the DUC partners, Orsted and DTU investigating the potential for offshore storage of CO2. And through our involvement in carbon cuts, we are assessing what we think can be a fantastic onshore storage project.

So to summarize, we have a realistic and balanced approach where we will support Europe's energy security, while at the same time, lower the emissions and invest in solutions, which will be important for the future.

Moving over to next slide. As a continuation of the ambition to deliver into the energy needs of Denmark and Europe, in BlueNord's long-term plan, we have both infill wells and also development projects. This plan is reflective of what is actually the original objective of the partnership in the DUC, to maximize economic recovery from the DUC.

As mentioned, the infill wells are a very important part of the plan to increase gas production over the next few years. The 7 wells are divided into 4 projects, their low cost and represent incremental volumes of circa 19 million barrels of oil equivalents. The jack-up rig Shelf drilling winner has for the first well did impact in June, and we see valuable volumes from the 21st wells early next year. Together with the production from Halfdan, Gorm, Dan and Tyra, these infill wells will lift our production to somewhere above 55,000 barrels a day by 2025. This corresponds to an increase in gas production for BlueNord by 250%.

The second bucket in the long-term plan, which you can see on the far right on the page, consists of the 3 development projects, Valdemar Bo South, Adda and Halfdan North. These are identified and highly attractive projects where the gas-weighted ones will be prioritized first. The projects will ensure that a high level of production in BlueNord is sustained over time such that we in 2030 and despite the overall natural decline are able to have a daily production above 40,000 barrels per day.

These 3 projects will add approximately 43 million barrels based on the latest 2C numbers. And with unit CapEx below $15 per barrel, these are highly cash-generative projects, which will come with robust IRRs that can tackle most commodity price environments. Production from the 21st projects can also be tied back to Tyra 2, which is a great way of getting more value from what is a new and state-of-the-art facility. And it will also ensure that the process capacity on Tyra is fully utilized.

And then moving over to my final slide, which is normally where I present the production profile over a 10-year period, lifting our net production above 55,000 barrels per day by 2025. However, this quarter, our long-term profile is under revision for a couple of reasons. First of all, we have infill volumes being shifted from this year to early next year, but more importantly, due to what we expect will be an accelerated ramp-up of Tyra will now believe that the Tyra volumes will be greater for next year.

Also, remember that the oil production profile did not include the significant potential for additional infill drilling, which Tyra will unlock for us. And as the conclusion, you can expect us to update the long-term plan somewhere near future and you can also expect us to revise it upwards at least for the year of 2024.

And as a closing remark, remember that any investment decision in BlueNord will need to support our long-term cash flow generation potential. And with the substantial dividend capacity, which is unlocked by Tyra and the new and updated long-term plan, we have an even greater start to a vehicle, which can sustain robust capacity over time. And with that, I will say thank you for listening and pass over the word to our CFO, Jacqueline, who will take you through our financials.

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

Thank you, Cathrine. I will now go through the financial results for the quarter. And as you can see here and what we've seen all year, the financial results of this quarter continues to reflect the excellent underlying operating performance in the assets. In addition, higher commodity prices, particularly oil this quarter has driven an improved revenue line in addition to the third quarter performance, reflecting the benefit of positive hedging opportunities we had taken in gas.

So the positive pricing was slightly offset by lower oil liftings in this quarter, but this is related primarily to timing. So this combined has enabled us to maintain a strong revenue result for the third quarter of $200 million. Our operating cost level continues to include activities related to well recovery and optimization, which is supporting the strong base production performance that you heard about earlier.

The slight increase since the previous quarter is due to additional maintenance and inspection activities, which is phased through the year. And when you look at our overall year-to-date OpEx and our OpEx per BOE, that is in line with our expectations. As a result of the above, the overall contribution margin remains significantly positive with a reported EBITDA of $106 million in the quarter.

If we turn to the summary income statement now. You can see the full earnings position here, which shows the positive result before tax continues aside from the operating performance that I discussed just on the previous slide, we do note just a couple of things here and one of those is the net financial items. That is, again, impacted by a noncash fair value movement on embedded derivatives. That's again generating a higher expense similar to last quarter.

Further, you will see that the tax expense this quarter is high and that is affected by a combination of some prior year adjustments that closed several historical tax matters. And there is also a true-up on the year-to-date calculation for 2023, in particular in relation to how we assess interest deductibility.

As there have also been some prior year adjustments in the previous quarter, it's important to also consider the year-to-date position on tax expense, which is in line with the expectations in the underlying business. If we now consider the balance sheet, you can see really the main items here to highlight is around tax as well. Our deferred tax position does increase but this is because we have solidarity contribution in 2023.

So our loss utilization is minimized in this year, but that is carried forward for future years. In terms of the tax payable, you can see the balance here at the month -- at the quarter end, it does include our expected Chapter 2 taxes payable for 2022 as well as the year-to-date accrual for 2023.

So when you put that together, plus the solidarity contribution, there's a total of $256 million payable, of which $247 million is cash tax. And then within that, about approximately $190 million is to be paid in the coming quarter. There continues to be no regular Chapter 3 taxes payable in the current year. So if we now turn to cash.

We continue to report a solid operating cash flow. That is $113 million this quarter and year-to-date $328 million. We also have a net positive cash inflow overall this quarter of $21 million and that's $37 million year-to-date. You can see from the chart that the $111 million of cash flow available prior to CapEx has largely been utilized on the Tyra redevelopment project, which continues to, of course, dominate the capital spend.

But in addition, we do have expenditure on the infill drilling that continued at half down during the third quarter. The liquidity position for the quarter maintains our fully funded outlook for the Tyra redevelopment project and we have a closing available liquidity improving to $506 million, which is up from $485 million last quarter.

Now for a quick look at the capital structure. And you can see this shows it remains robust and it's fully funded to deliver on Tyra redevelopment. We have a stable balance sheet and there are still no principal maturities prior to Tyra First Gas. And you can see on the chart, our final net debt position at the end of the quarter is $889 million, compared with $910 million at the end of Q2. This is simply driven by the increase in the cash position during the quarter.

A final point to highlight is around the commodity price environment. And here, we haven't changed our approach. Our primary purpose with the price hedging is we have to provide some visibility over future cash flows. And we will continue to add volumes where it makes sense to do so. Our oil hedging remains consistent for the final quarter of 2023, with some hedging being added into the second half of 2024 and all of '25.

Regarding gas, we have hedged additional volumes to winter '23, '24, summer '24 and now also to the season's winter '24/'25 and summer '25. Given the current commodity price environment, it makes sense to take advantage and add hedges when it looks attractive to do so. And that's within our existing policy framework. So you can see from the chart, the average hedge price for oil ranges from around $55 per barrel, up to $74 per barrel in Q2 '25.

The average hedge price for gas remains significantly above current market and spot -- sorry, current market and forward prices for the coming winter '23/'24 season. And we have an average head price of EUR 105.1 per megawatt hour. This quarter, we have also added hedges to summer '24, and we maintained an average hedge price of EUR 51.3 per megawatt hour.

And finally, the hedges for winter '24/'25 have been added at an average price of EUR 54.7 per megawatt hour. And then the summer of '25 season is at approximately EUR 45.1 per megawatt hour. Aligned with our latest production guidance, the final quarter of '23 is hedged approximately 50% on oil and 35% on gas. So this hedging approach, it continues to support our balance sheet and our capital structure through the continued uncertain and volatile price environment.

So this helps to bring a level of certainty over our funding position. So in summary, 2023 continues on a positive footing financially, with strong earnings and cash generation that supports our balance sheet. This is underpinned by a robust capital structure to enable delivery of our operational and our financial goals. So on that note, I will hand back to Euan for closing remarks.

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

Thank you, Jacqueline. So you've now heard where we are today, and I want to leave you with one clear message. We have a fantastic outlook, one that's supported by not only a strong base business, but also by the near-term and derisked start-up of the tower field, where we expect plateau production to be reached in Q2 2024. And for us, that outlook is just around the corner, a future that will see us more than double our production volumes, deliver strong cash generation and commence distributions to shareholders, one where we also become an increasingly material player in the European supply landscape and finally, most importantly, deliver the value of our portfolio to you.

Let's pause for 30 seconds to allow for additional questions to be submitted, after which we'll come back to answer. And in the meantime, thank you once again for joining today.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

So first question, what do you see as a suitable debt level leverage ratio for the company between 2025 and 2030?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So consistent with what we have previously stated, we plan around a net debt-to-EBITDAX ratio of 2x. And in practice, this means broadly the same debt level in the shorter term, '24, '25. And then the debt level thereafter, we'll adjust according to the investment level required.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And how should we think around CapEx levels for '24 and '25?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So 2024, obviously, there's still an expenditure on Tyra, and we do show that. It's around $100 million, a little bit under. Then there is also infill drilling. They will be a large part of '24, but we will give more detail on CapEx during the quarter 4 presentation.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And when should we expect you to say something around 2024 dividends?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So we will expect to say more around the dividend prior to Tyra first gas.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

You have provided guidance of $13 per barrel for direct OpEx after Tyra first gas. What should we assume will be the total production expense?

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

So the guidance was $13 or actually under $13. So if we include also the transportation costs, we expect the total production expenses should be under $18 per BOE.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And Marianne, you highlight an impressive October production of 26,500 barrels per day. Should we expect this to last throughout Q4?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

I am very pleased with the October-to-date production and this has been enabled by a very high uptime of regularity. And we do not expect this high regularity for the entire quarter. But however, we do not have any planned shutdowns for the fourth quarter.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And when do you expect the Tyra field to be fully derisked?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So the key risk to the delivery of Tyra, I would say is through the league testing. So the project has been significantly derisked already by testing all compressors, which are very critical pieces of equipment. The key risk is still that we uncover any significant defects through league testing. So far, we have not discovered anything that we cannot rectify within a reasonable time frame but we will be continuing the leak testing until we are reaching a plateau.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Can you please reflect on your optimal capital structure and priorities of cash post Tyra?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

So I might take that one. So I think the optimal capital structure will look broadly similar to where we are now. I think our clear objective into 2024 once Tyra's on stream is addressing some of the specific issues that we have in our capital structure, particularly the RBL and the amortization profile. And when we look forward beyond that, I think the very clear message that we have at the moment is that our priority for any cash flow that we generate is to distribute that to shareholders. And then beyond that, we'll also look at a balanced capital allocation framework that has investment and deleveraging as part of it.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Could you provide some insight on how the revised expectations for Tyra's initial gas production might impact the 2024 production volumes, especially with the anticipated advancement of the plateau production?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So reaching a plateau of much earlier will obviously increase the 2024 production. We are in the process of updating our internal production guidance where we will look at the timing for each individual field and also take into account ramp-up and also potential flush production due to pressure buildup. So apart from saying that we expect a higher production, we will need to come back to you with an exact number later.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And could you shed some light on the technical challenges encountered at Halfdan to Northeast, which led to the revised expected production time line to 2024? Additionally, should we anticipate similar delays for the upcoming infill wells?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So I think this Halfdan toward Northeast well, the HBA 27, I think this was a one-off with the technical problems that we encountered. What we experienced was several incidents of tool failure. And that resulted in equipment being stuck in the well, which meant that we had to drill side tracks. But the team is -- has taken all learnings on board. So we are confident that we will be back on track with the next wells.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

How much more 2C volumes from infill opportunities could potentially be unlocked by Tyra? Is it possible to provide a range?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So I don't have a range. But -- and again, this is work that we are carrying out right now, looking at the Tyra simulation model and identifying concrete infill well opportunities.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And Jacqueline, and which quarter is the solidate contribution tax payable.

[Jacqueline Lindmark Boye, executive]

50% is payable in the coming quarter and then the remaining 50% in the first half of next year.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Could we go through the key debt terms that is restricting dividend potential and which instruments are well bond these related?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

So the -- we have 2 key instruments within the capital structure that have dividend restrictions within them. The first is the RBL and the second is BNOR14, the unsecured notes. The main restriction under BNOR14 is that we have to have achieved Tyra-first gas. And we have to hit a period of that, that has 2 clear quarters post first gas. And then the quantum of that dividend is currently restricted to 50% of net profit after tax in the previous calendar year.

The second instrument if we think about the RBL, the dividend restriction there within that facility are predominantly that we have to be able to meet a forward liquidity test for 12 months. So in reality, the one that is the kind of the constricting element is BNOR14 and I think we recognize that and it's something that we're certainly very focused on.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

Can you elaborate on the key remaining milestones and potential risks ahead of first gas at Tyra?

[Marianne Eide, executive]

So a key milestone will be the introduction of methanol and then completion of leak testing on Tyra. And then leak testing is completed, you will import gas. And after you've imported gas, you will export it, yes.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And then final question. Euan, how do you consider organic versus inorganic growth in the portfolio? And what opportunities do you see for BlueNord in the international space going forward?

[Euan Shirlaw, executive]

We have an extremely strong portfolio within the DUC and as we've -- as we sort of frequently talked about, we have in excess of 200 million barrels of 2C opportunities. I think what you can expect to see from us, at least in the short term, is very much a clear focus on the organic value that we have within our portfolio. I think also, given where we are at the moment, the very clear focus is on bringing Tyra on stream. And that's the thing that delivers the business that we have today. So I think in summary, you shouldn't expect any inorganic growth from us in the near term. And I would also say that, that is largely a function of the quality of our underlying portfolio.

[Cathrine Torgersen, executive]

And that concludes the Q&A session. Thank you, everyone, for listening in.