Austevoll Seafood ASA
OSE:AUSS
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Austevoll Seafood ASA
Earnings Call Analysis
Q3-2023 Analysis
Austevoll Seafood ASA
The company faced biological challenges, including a significant ice outbreak at two of their sites, leading to early harvesting at lower weights and impacting their earnings in the West Coast. Furthermore, the unfavorable quota and size distributions for cod coupled with lower overall whitefish prices dampened the profitability of Leroy Havfisk and Leroy Norway Seafood, swinging from a positive to a negative earning position.
A decrease in revenue and operational EBITDA was noted this quarter, attributed mainly to the cancellation of the first fishing season in Peru. Despite favorable prices for whitefish, especially cod, price resistance in the market is evident. While operational EBIT saw a decrease, partly due to one-off effects like forced slaughtering related to fish health issues and a hit from an implemented resource rent tax, the net profit reflected a stark decline. However, the company maintains a stable cash position with NOK 6.7 billion in cash and an equity ratio of 50%. Moving forward, the company has revised its volume guidance downward for the year due to biological challenges but expects a recovery in production volumes in upcoming years.
The fishmeal production saw a 70% reduction in Peru but was somewhat compensated by production in other regions, leading to a total decrease of just below 30%. Fishmeal prices remained firm, while fish oil emerged as a strong market, especially for high omega-3 fish oil, with prices soaring due to low supply and yield from Peru. With major production down by almost 90% in Peru, the expectation is that both fishmeal and fish oil prices will remain robust going forward.
The salmon market witnessed a slight negative growth over the past two years, but a turnaround with an anticipated increase of 5% next year is in view, thanks to contributions from Norway, U.K., Faroe Island, and Iceland. On the flip side, the company had to contend with lower-priced whitefish species to offset lower cod quotas. Increased pressure on prices for saithe, haddock, and shrimp is being observed, which might pose challenges for 2024 as significant quota reductions for cod and haddock are expected.
Positive developments have been noted in pelagic operations in Peru with good catch rates offering some optimism. However, the anticipated El Nino event by year-end might influence future outcomes. In Chile, additional volumes are targeted for December, and the expected strength in biomass in 2024 is up by 50%. The company forecasts that raw material for fishmeal and fish oil will suffice, albeit with a slight decrease for human consumption materials for the next year. Overall, the company aims to bolster production, with plans in place to raise salmon volumes significantly by 2024 and 2025.
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And it's a great pleasure for me to invite you to Austevoll Seafood third quarter presentation. I will first take you through the highlights through this quarter. Thereafter, I will go more in detail in the different segments we are operating within.Britt Kathrine, our CFO, will take you through more in detail the figures for the quarter and also for the 3 first quarters so far and then I will end this presentation by -- give a short opinion on different markets we are operating within.So starting up in the quarter compared with the same quarter last year, you can see that revenue is down by approximately NOK 500 million. And this is a consequence of that there were no season in Peru, which are taking our revenue down, and it also impact our earnings. Our operational EBITDA this quarter is down by approximately NOK 700 million and NOK 520 million of that is the difference between earnings in Peru, second quarter '22 compared with this quarter in '23. Also, salmon activity are delivering a weaker operational EBITDA, which I will also come back to later on in the presentation.Operational EBIT, just short of NOK 600 million. And if you take into account the 50% share we have of Pelagia, you can see that our EBITDA is down with NOK 700 million, down to NOK 1.3 billion in the quarter, whereas NOK 1 billion is coming from Leroy and approximately NOK 280 million is coming from the pelagic business.Looking at the full year, you can see that revenue is above same period last year, NOK 25 billion. Operational EBITDA is NOK 4 billion. And the main difference from last quarter is the loss of income from Peru. Otherwise, we are delivering more or less the same margin in the consolidated figures.Operational EBIT, NOK 2.8 billion. And you can see that our total asset is growing and close to NOK 52.5 billion. Net interest-bearing debt of NOK 6.5 billion and equity ratio of 50%. Doing the same exercise on the first 9 months, you can see that our EBITDA, including 50% of Pelagia is NOK 4.7 billion. And you can see that the salmon and whitefish activity are delivering more or less the same numbers as same period last year, and we are below due to Peru on the pelagic segment, where we just passed NOK 1 billion EBITDA for the first 9 months.We are a main player in the pelagic segment, in the whitefish segment and the salmon segments, global player with activity in Peru, Chile and in the North Atlantic on the pelagic side, and on an annual basis in general, we are catching between 350,000 to 450,000 tonnes, processing, pelagic raw material in our factories between 1.6 million to 2 million tonnes of raw material annually and processing and fishing whitefish between 90,000 to 110,000 tonnes on an annual basis. Also, on average, salmon volumes between 190,000 to 210,000 tonnes on an annual basis.So then go more in detail through the different segments, and I would start up with Peru. And what's fair to say in Peru is that if you look at winter cruise committed by IMARPE for the last 3 years, you can see that the biomass has been more or less equal just surpassing [ 7 billion tonnes ]. And this was also confirmed in front of the second season in Peru in 2023.Total biomass, 7.1 billion tonnes -- 7.1 million tonnes, and the quota was established at approximately 1.7 million tonnes in total. A bit lower share of the biomass taking out now, and it's mainly due to one being cautious due to the fact that we are in the middle of -- and a linear period. So the biomass utilization rate is 23% this season and same season last year, it was over 33%.And some information about fishery. I would say that it started okay. In our case, the quota is 117,000 tonnes. So far, we have caught just below 45,000 tonnes, which is close to 40% of our total catch. We are expecting that it will come, warmer water into the Peru, and of course which might affect the fisheries in December. But we don't know when it will come and how it will affect. And we are guiding, I would say, this season, a range between -- that we're going to catch between 70,000 tonnes to 170,000 tonnes.And the magnitude of the El Nino, which is expected, it's going to be some place between a moderate and a strong one and will at least last through the summer period outside the coast of Peru. You can also see that in the South, there has also been a lower volume coming in this year versus the last year. This is in the factory of Ilo. So, so far, the first 9 months is 12,500 tonnes and compared with 83,000 tonnes the same months before.Positive thing is that horse mackerel quota has been -- and fishery has been quite good, and we have at least doubled our volume for horse mackerel for human consumption this year versus the same period last year. It's also important to say that in terms of yield so far, it's also a low oil yield from the production so far in Peru. And thus, we think also prices will remain strong for fishery going forward.Our operation in Chile for the quarter, there has been no catches at all. We finished as normal, I would say, our own quota in the first 6 months of the year. And I would also say that it's done a good job to do that this year. We have also made an agreement to purchase third-party quota in which we are aiming to catch in the 20th -- in December, and this is about 20,000 tonnes, but I think the sales will be committed the next year.All in all, I would say that the biomass development, as you can see on the bottom graph, has been quite good the last 13 years, and we are also expecting another increase for next year in terms of quotas, bringing us up from 56,000 tonnes to approximately 64,000 tonnes in 2024.Then looking at the North Atlantic pelagic quotas, and what's valid to say here is that the recommendation from ICES has been quite firm, I would say is a variation between species, but -- if you look at the last 6 years, it's been all in all, our volume surpassing 3.5 million tonnes.This year, I would say, positive side, it's increased quota for blue whiting, which is the main species in for fishmeal and fish oil segments for Pelagia. North Sea herring up at 30%. And it's also good that Barents Sea capelin quota has been increased this year versus last year, where the total quota now is almost 200,000 tonnes. The negative part, mackerel down 5%. The NVG herring is down with 24% and it's decided not to open any quota for Icelandic capelin.So summing up, I would say that it's good raw material basis for our fishmeal and fish oil operation and less raw material in for human consumption. Looking at the segment for fishmeal and fish oil, you can see that volume is up versus same quarter last year, and we are expecting to have a raw material intake just below 1 million tonnes for the Pelagia's fishmeal, fish oil and fish concentrates plant. This is also including salmon and whitefish based raw material, but mainly based on the pelagic raw material, whole fish and trimmings.I would say that the market has been good, stable, both for marine protein and oil. And I would also say it's low risk on our stock position and just reconfirming that it's positive with the blue whiting and Barents Sea capelin quota in terms of raw material intake for next year.A bit slower, I would say, start of the mackerel fishery, bringing the volumes down for the direct human consumption production, down from 117,000 tonnes same quarter last year to 84,000 tonnes. We are now into the most important period for this segment, and we're going to catch approximately 38% of the total volume intake for this segment during fourth quarter. So it's been -- it's a quite busy period there. And as I said, in terms of the ICES advice, we are expecting some, I would say, a lower raw material intake in Pelagia for next year versus this year.All in all, I would say that numbers are good also in the quarter, more or less on the same level as last year. Revenue, NOK 3.2 billion, EBITDA of NOK 565 million and operational EBIT of NOK 427 million. If you look year-to-date, you can also see that the revenue is NOK 8.7 billion. Our operational EBITDA is just below NOK 1.3 billion, where the majority of this is coming from our fish meal and fish oil segments, surpassing NOK 1 billion, the human consumption segments approximately NOK 60 million and the health segment with NOK 170 million.Now looking into salmon and whitefish and here, we are delivering on operational EBIT, which is approximately NOK 200 million lower than the same quarter last year, NOK 631 million. The main reason for that is that -- which we announced in last quarter is an ice outbreak on 2 sites, which we had to do an early harvest on a lower average rate, which brought our activity in the West Coast, Leroy Sjotroll showing negative numbers this quarter.Also, we are seeing that prices on whitefish is lower this quarter versus same quarter last year and also the share of cod marked by the lower quota is also bringing down earnings in Leroy Havfisk and Leroy Norway Seafood down from NOK 27 million positive to minus NOK 38 million.Slaughtered volume approximately 53,000 tonnes whereas 16,000 tonnes is in Leroy Aurora, 22,000 tonnes in Leroy Midt and 15,000 tonnes in Leroy Sjotroll. EBIT per kilo is very good in Leroy Aurora with approximately NOK 26 per kilo, in Leroy Midt approximately NOK 17 per kilo. And due to the ice outbreak and also some biological challenges in the end of the quarter in Leroy Sjotroll, we are having a negative EBIT of NOK 7 per kilo.We have had some challenges with gill disease in Leroy Midt, in Leroy Sjotroll, which also affect the volume guidance by the end of this year, but also into second year due to early harvests on lower weight. So the new volume guidance for this year is just below 170,000 tonnes, including our share in Norskott Havbruk. And in 2024, we are expecting a total volume of 193,500 tonnes.This is just to confirm the statement 2 slides ago. You can see that cod catches in this quarter is lower than last year, volume more or less in the same level, but -- the lower quotas compensated but lower price species, which has an impact on earning.So then I give the floor to Britt.
Thank you. And as normal, we start summing up the raw material intake in the quarter. And as you can see, there has been a very limited operation in South America. There has -- one of the main seasons within human consumption in North Atlantic started up in August, and we have increased slaughtered volumes of salmon in third quarter compared with previous quarters.We start with this high-level overview of the revenue and operational EBITDA in third quarter, and this also includes our 50% share of Pelagia. As you can see, the revenue is a little bit down compared to the same quarter last year. And that is mainly because first fishing season in Peru was canceled, as you can see from Austral here. So the higher revenue from Leroy Seafood Group did not compensate the decrease in revenue from Peru.The operational EBITDA came in at NOK 1.3 billion, down from NOK 2 billion and again negatively affected by the canceled fishing season in Peru. But also, we have been negatively affected by one-off effects related to forced slaughtering of fish affected by ISA in Leroy Sjotroll and we announced this in our second quarter report, and the negative impact was around NOK 200 million.Looking at the operational EBIT that came in at NOK 592 million, down from NOK 1.4 billion and included in operational EBIT is also the income from joint ventures and associates. Income from joint venture and associates are down NOK 100 million in third quarter this year compared with same quarter last year. And I will come more into that on next slide.We also had -- looking at the profit before tax and fair value adjustment that was NOK 300 million in third quarter this year compared to NOK 1.3 billion in same quarter last year. And if we have a high biomass adjustment, negative biomass adjustment in third quarter this year, which affects, of course, the net profit is minus NOK 710 million compared to a positive effect of NOK 94 million in the third quarter last year.The resource rent tax was approved by starting in May this year with effect from January -- 1st of January 2023 and the implementation effect of NOK 1.8 billion was implemented in second quarter.And this quarter, we have estimated resource rent tax on earnings from this part of the value chain for the period from 1st of January to 30th of September. And for more information, we refer to Note 9 in our financial report and also the appendix in the end of this report. But the estimated resource rent tax for this period, which was implemented now in third quarter was NOK 221 million.This gives us a net profit, a negative net profit of minus NOK 500 million, down from NOK 1 billion in same quarter last year. And adjusted earnings per share, and this is excluding the biomass adjustment, was NOK 0.4, down from NOK 3.5 in same quarter last year.As I mentioned, income from joint venture and associate was down by NOK 100 million in third quarter this year compared with same quarter last year. And if you look at the 9 first months of 2023, the income from joint ventures and associates was NOK 167 million, down from NOK 342 million.And Norskott have a negative result, both in third quarter but also year-to-date in 2023. And they have had a very challenging biological situation in 2022, but also now in 2023. Pelagia sustains a positive development with a successful operation and also good market condition, in particular, within marine proteins and fish oil.Looking at the revenue and operational EBITDA for the first 9 months of 2023, we see that we have an increase in revenue and the increase is coming from Leroy Seafood Group. We have quite a sharp decrease in revenue from Austral and again as a consequence of a lack of a first fishing season, but the increase from Leroy Seafood Group more than compensate the decrease from Peru.Looking at operational EBIT, it was NOK 4.7 billion, down from NOK 5.5 billion. And again, these figures also includes our 50% share of Pelagia. And again, the same explanation. We have a lack of a first fishing season, and we also have this negative impact from the forced slaughtering of fish infected by ISA.Operational EBIT came in at NOK 2.8 billion, down from NOK 4 billion. And again, as I mentioned, somewhat lower earnings from joint venture and associates compared with the same period last year. We have a profit before tax and fair value adjustment of NOK 2.2 billion, down from NOK 3.5 billion. And here, looking at the tax, you can see the full effect of the implementation of the resource rent tax, which was taken in second quarter of NOK 1.8 billion, plus the effect of the earnings in the period 1st of January to 30th of September, in total, above NOK 2 billion.This gives us a net profit, which is negative, highly impacted by this implementation of the resource rent tax, but also of negative biomass adjustment in the period of minus NOK 173 million, which gives a negative net profit of minus NOK 423 million, down from net profit of NOK 3.8 billion in the same period last year. But as you can see then, we had a very positive, high positive biomass adjustment of almost NOK 1.4 billion.We look into the segments and Arne has already taken you through Leroy Seafood Group. So I will just have some small comments. The main value drivers for Leroy is of course volume, volume of slaughtered salmon and volume of catch of whitefish. And there is a decrease of 4% in the slaughtered volume in the period. And the harvest volume of whitefish is approximate -- it's -3%, but more or less in the same -- in line with the same period last year.Looking into the salmon part of the business, prices, the spot prices for salmon has come down in third quarter. The seasonality with lower volumes in first half gives higher prices in that period. And of course, the high volumes slaughtered now in third quarter and also in fourth quarter gives us a reduction in the spot prices.However, the price achievement for Leroy is, of course, affected by several things. It's the timing of the slaughtering. It's, of course, the weight of the fish because there has been quite a big difference in prices for the different sizes and also the contract share. The cost is up from same period last year, but it's down from second quarter this year. And of course, that is economy of scale.Looking at the whitefish, we have got a lower volume of cod, which is the higher value fish and a higher volume of species with less value. And then there is an increased period of fishing days. But the cost of the fuel has been lower. So despite the higher number of operational days, we have actually had a reduction in fuel cost of NOK 23 million in this quarter compared with the same quarter last year.And we see that cod has had increased prices compared with same period last year. But compared with same quarter or second quarter, there is a reduction in prices. So there is a little bit resistance in the market for the prices at the moment.It's not much to say for the operation in Peru because that has been quite limited. There was 15 days of fishing in the first season, which was 5 days in second quarter and 10 days in third quarter and limited volumes. Of course, this also impact the sales volumes of finished products. What we see is that we have had an increase in the prices for fishmeal and of course, fish oil has been more than doubled compared with the same period last year.So what we are glad to announce is actually that there was established a quota now for second season, which started up at the 26th of October after a trial for 5 days from 21st of October. So the fishing has so far been good, which Arne informed you about earlier in the presentation.FoodCorp, they finished horse mackerel quota by end of June. So almost zero activity in the quarter. The volumes of finished products sold in the quarter is for frozen is half of what was sold the same quarter last year, but we have sold somewhat higher volumes of fishmeal and fish oil. There is an increase in the price achieved for the frozen products and also fishmeal and fish oil has had very good prices, both in this quarter, but also earlier in 2023.So the revenue here is NOK 258 million, a little bit up compared with same quarter last year. The operational EBITDA is more or less in line with last year and NOK 26 million, and the operational EBIT is NOK 22 million, a little bit lower compared with last year.Looking at Birkeland Farming, they have slaughtered a little bit less than 800 tonnes down from 1,200 tonnes in the same period last year. And they have actually slaughtered the fish with low harvest weight, and that gives lower prices, of course, but also a higher release from stock cost. So the EBIT is negative in the quarter with minus NOK 11 million. But looking at the figures year-to-date, they have had an operational EBITDA of NOK 223 million, which is in line with last year. But you can see that the EBIT kilo is close to NOK 43, up from NOK 40.6. So they have had a good performance in 2023.Br. Birkeland AS, the 2 pelagic vessels has been in operation in this quarter. They have been catching North Sea herring, and they also started the mackerel season in August. The prices for both North Sea herring and mackerel are up compared with last year. And the revenue in the period is NOK 95 million, a little bit less down from last year, and operational EBITDA of NOK 35 million, a little bit up compared with last year, and operational EBIT is NOK 18 million, which is more or less in line with last year.The vessel fishing snow crab has not have had -- has not been in or had operation because the Norwegian quota was actually finalized in by the end of first quarter. So they will not have any operation in fourth quarter either.The total assets are NOK 52.4 billion, up from NOK 48 billion and by the end of September last year. The increase, we have been actually increasing our tangible fixed assets. You can also see there is an increase in biological assets at cost. There is an inflation trend. So that gives us an increase in that number. You can also see that there is increase in other inventory. But the largest increase is actually in cash, which has increased from NOK 4.3 billion by the end of September last year to almost NOK 6.7 billion in -- by the end of September this year.Net interest-bearing debt is less -- a little bit less than NOK 6.6 billion, and the equity ratio is 50%. It's down from 58% by the end of September last year, and of course, impacted by the implementation of the resource rent tax, which was over NOK 2 billion for the period up to 30th of September.Looking at the cash flow for the quarter, and we see that we are losing a little bit up in the working capital. So the cash from operation is almost NOK 1.1 billion. The cash from investing activities is more or less in the same level as last year, around minus NOK 400 million. And we see that we have a positive cash from financing activity of NOK 628 million. Last year, we had a negative impact of NOK 1.3 billion. We started a period with a cash position of almost NOK 5.4 billion, and we ended the period with a cash position of NOK 6.7 billion.Then I give the floor back to you, Arne.
Then I will continue by giving a short view on the different segments we are operating within and starting off with fishmeal. And as you can see, the reduction of fishmeal production in Peru is 70% so far this year compared with same period last year, and it's somehow compensated with production in Denmark, Norway, Iceland and North Atlantic. So the total is down by just below 30%.What I can say is that prices has, I would say, remained firm in the last 3 to 4 months with range for $1,900 per tonne for low-quality fishmeal up to $2,100 per tonne on super prime. Feed producer mostly cover until the first quarter and I would say it's been so far limited stock available for new offers from the Peruvian producers.Peru is by far the largest producer and China is the largest consumer. So looking into the stock situation in China, you can see that in week 42, the stock is 135,000 tonnes, which is 32% lower than the same period last year and also lower than the 5 years average. The current Chinese prices is approximately $2,370 per tonne, which also stimulates trading of fishmeal. And we're also seeing that lack of fishmeal in Peru is almost been compensated by supply from other regions. But all in all, so far in September, we can see that fishmeal imports is approximately 10% lower than same period last year.Fish oil remains a very strong market. And again, in particular for the high omega-3 fish oil, you can see that prices is extremely high, just below $10,000 per tonne. And of course, it has to do with a very low supply and a very low yield from Peru and that's why prices are up. All in all, among the largest producers, you can see fish oil production is down by 20% and almost 90% in Peru, and we are expecting good and strong prices for fish oil going forward.Salmon market you can see the last 2 years, we will have a negative growth on an annual basis on 1%. Next year is an increase of 5%, and the estimate is driven by volumes from Norway and U.K., Faroe Island and Iceland as well.Prices, similar trends we saw last year, what you're seeing now. It's fair to say that if you look at the third quarter prices in '22 and '23, you can see an increase in NOK, but overall it's more or less on the same level due to the weakening of NOK. Market years down, and I would say, other market, which is SPOT-related is maintaining their position and the same the U.S. market is doing.So all in all, I would say that our result this year in the salmon industry is marked by the 2 ice outbreak in the West Coast of Norway and also challenging biology late this quarter and also early next quarter will also affect our volumes. But also it's -- we are working quite hard in order to produce a stronger and more robust smolt and also doing some changes in production offshore. So we are expecting that we bring volumes up to 193,000 tonnes in '24 and up to 205,000 tonnes in Norway in '25. And then we have the volume in Scotland in addition in '25.On the whitefish, it's higher volume, but on lower prices species, we have caught some redfish compensating for the lower cod quota. And we also see that there's pressure on prices, both for saithe and haddock and shrimp as well and 2024 seems like cod quota is going to be down 20%, haddock down by 70%, which is also going to be -- make it more challenging in 2024.On the pelagic side, I would say it's positive what we are seeing at time being in Peru. We have got more than 1/3 of the quota. So it's been okay catches so far. And of course, it's going to be very excitement to see if we are able to catch the final quota and what kind of impact El Nino will have coming in by the end of the year.In Chile, again, we will have some additional volumes in December, and we are aiming to catch 20,000 tonne. And also, it's good to see that biomass seems to be strong, and it's up by 50% also in 2024. And North Atlantic quota, a short summary, done a good job in Pelagia, in both '23 and in '22, delivering good numbers. And what we are seeing in the crystal ball for next year is that raw material for fishmeal and fish oil will be okay and a small decrease for the raw material for human consumption.So that was all. Thank you.