Atea ASA

OSE:ATEA

Earnings Call Analysis

Atea Records Steady Growth Amid Challenges

Atea showcased resilience with its Q3 results amidst a complex global environment. The company recorded a 10% increase in gross profit to NOK 2.3 billion and a 5% rise in EBIT to near NOK 300 million. Gross sales saw a slight uptick, exceeding 2% to almost NOK 11 billion, while net debt reduced significantly by over NOK 500 million to NOK 171 million. Gross margin improved to 29.5% buoyed by better hardware margins and a higher mix of software and services revenue, leading to a 9.6% gross profit growth. Despite varied performance across business units, most, except Denmark, posted higher EBIT year-over-year driven by this margin expansion. Cash flow reflected typical seasonal patterns with an outflow in Q3, yet an impressive NOK 1.9 billion operating cash flow was sustained over the last year, facilitating debt reduction and continued investments.

Proud Results Amidst Global Uncertainty

In an economic landscape shadowed by unease, Atea has given investors reasons for optimism. The Q3 results showcased a sturdy performance, with gross profit climbing to 2.3 billion NOK, marking a 10% year-over-year increase. Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) edged upwards by 5% to almost 300 million NOK. Gross sales also grew by over 2%, reaching nearly 11 billion NOK. Extra encouragement came from a significant reduction in net debt, which saw a drop of over 500 million NOK to 171 million NOK. These numbers reflect a robust quarter, especially when the tentacles of global tension are squeezing economic outlooks. As a sign of quality in tumultuous times, Atea's results are commendable, albeit there's still room for satisfaction to grow.

Analyzing Growth Amidst Abnormal Comparisons

Diving deeper, Atea's growth tells a complex tale. This quarter's growth rates found themselves juxtaposed against a peculiar and abnormal quarter of the previous year. Such an anomaly distorts simple comparisons; however, the growth story remains positive and requires a nuanced understanding to fully appreciate Atea's market resilience.

Currency and Margins: A Mixed Bag with a Silver Lining

Examining Atea's revenue growth, currency translation emerges as a significant factor. It bolstered growth estimates by 5.4% in Q3 2023 and had a 3.5% negative impact in Q3 2022. The two-year stretch saw a negligible cumulative impact, demonstrating the superficial nature of currency effects on enduring growth trends. Encouragingly, gross margins swelled to 29.5% in Q3 2023 from the previous year's squeezed margin of 25.8%. This rebound is attributed to a healthier mix of Software and Services and hardware margins returning to a stable, long-term rate. Consequently, gross profit ascended by 9.6% to 2.3 billion NOK. Atea's profitability evidently improved, with elevated margins counterbalancing Software and Hardware market impacts.

Balanced Performances Across Geographies

Across varied territories, Atea units, barring Denmark, have augmented EBIT due to rising gross margins. Norway saw a modest EBIT increment of 1%, while Sweden celebrated a 10% EBIT leap despite lower hardware sales. Finland's EBIT surged by 16% on the strength of services. Even in the Baltics, a 31% EBIT growth signified heightening sales and margins. Despite these strengths, a drop in Denmark's EBIT, a sluggish PC market, and delay in a key Danish framework agreement briefly checked Atea’s broader momentum.

Solidifying Foundations and Future Expectations

Looking forward, Atea holds steadfast to its core strategies and anticipates continuous improvement and expansion. Ongoing projects in managed services and cloud adoption signal advancements in EBIT. The cost-saving initiative, 'A Smarter Atea', also aims to leverage operational efficiency across Atea's near-9,000-strong workforce. With market share reaching about 25% after Q3 and a strong balance sheet, Atea is prepared to tackle competition head-on in the coming years.

The Triad of Demand: Hardware, Software, and Services

Despite a quarter slump, the demand for hardware persists, promisingly unhampered by supply chain woes. Software continues to see a barrage of new applications, with pressure on pricing likely to bolster Atea's role as a reseller. The complexity of IT only strengthens the demand for services like consultancy and managed services. With upcoming Windows 11 updates and AI integration, Atea is eyeing new opportunity corridors, eagerly anticipating launches in the near future that could propel their business further.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Welcome to this presentation of the Q3 results for Atea. Here from a chilly Oslo where we're waiting for the first snow to arrive. I remind you that we will take Q&As at the end of the session.

The world is not easy, and it doesn't seem to get any better anytime soon. With that backdrop, we are really proud of the results of the Q3 quarter. The gross profit came in at NOK 2.3 billion, up 10%; the EBIT at almost NOK 300 million, up 5%; gross sales of almost NOK 11 billion, up more than 2%; and the net debt came in at NOK 171 million, down more than NOK 500 million. A solid quarter, which should be a quality sign in these times. Happy but not satisfied, I would say. But as always, I'll leave it to Robert to give you all the good news.

[Robert Giori, executive]

Thank you, Steinar. As Steinar mentioned, Atea increased its gross sales, gross profit and EBIT during the third quarter.

I'd now like to dive deeper into the sales and gross profit figures to analyze the underlying business trends. While we see this quarter, our growth rates, which are impacted by a comparison with a very abnormal quarter last year. Last year, Atea had exceptionally high sales growth, but with a low gross margin. This year, sales growth has slowed, especially within Hardware, but margins have improved so that gross profit continues to grow at a healthy rate. Gross sales in Q3 2023 were NOK 10.7 billion, up 2.3% from last year. This growth rate is slower than normal for Atea, but it's relative to an exceptionally strong sales quarter last year.

Last year, Atea's gross sales grew by 22.5%, nearly all of which were organic. Sales last year were boosted by temporary factors, such as the easing of industry supply constraints and a catch-up effect on workplace IT investment following the COVID pandemic. As we've stated in previous reports, these short-term tailwinds have now faded, and the market environment has returned to a more normal level of demand. In particular, the Hardware market has become less favorable during the past year.

If we look beyond a year-over-year comparison, the longer-term demand trend for Atea continues to be very positive. Over a 2-year period, from Q3 2021 to 2023, Atea sales have grown at a compounded growth rate of 12.0% per year.

Let's now look at revenue trends. In accordance with IFRS, Atea recognizes revenue from the sale of Software and third-party services on a net basis rather than a gross basis. Net revenue reporting means that cost of sales is deducted in the gross invoiced amount so that Atea's reported revenue from selling Software and third-party services is equivalent to its gross profit. As a result, Atea's reported revenue from Software and Services is nearly NOK 3 billion less than its gross invoice amount. Consequently, Software and Services represent a much lower proportion of Atea's revenue mix than of its sales mix. After converting gross sales from Software and third-party services to net revenue, Atea's reported revenue under IFRS was NOK 7.7 billion, down 4.2% from last year.

Atea's revenue development was weaker than its sales growth due to the lower proportion of Software and Services in the revenue mix. Still, the longer-term revenue development for Atea continues to be very positive. Over a 2-year period from Q3 2021, Atea's revenue has grown at a compounded growth rate of 9.0% per year.

If we look by business line. Hardware revenue fell by 9.7% from an exceptionally strong comparable period last year when revenue grew by almost 28%. Over a 2-year period since Q3 2021, Hardware revenue has grown at a rate of 7.5% per year.

Software revenue grew by 11.4% from last year, driven by higher demand from the public sector. Over a 2-year period since Q3 2021, Software revenue has grown at a rate of 15.9% per year.

Services revenue grew by 11.2% from last year, with growth across both Consulting and Managed Services. Over a 2-year period since Q3 2021, Services revenue has grown at a rate of 12.5% per year.

Currency translation had a significant impact on revenue growth in each of the last two years, but very little impact on revenue growth trends over the 2-year period. Currency translation positively impacted growth rates by 5.4% in Q3 2023 and negatively impacted growth rates by 3.5% in Q3 2022. Over a 2-year period, currency translation has impacted growth rates by less than 1%.

Let's now look at gross margin and gross profit trends. Atea's gross margin in Q3 2023 increased sharply from abnormally weak levels last year when margins were squeezed by a combination of inflation and long delivery times. Gross margin was 29.5% in Q3 2023, up from 25.8% in 2022 and slightly above the level in 2021. This recovery in gross margin was driven by a higher proportion of Software and Services in the revenue mix and by an increase in Hardware margins, which returned to a normal long-term rate of 13.1%. Based on a higher gross margin, Atea's gross profit in Q3 2023 grew by 9.6% to NOK 2.3 billion. In sum, Atea's gross profit continued to grow at a healthy rate during the third quarter as improved margins offset the impact of the Software and Hardware market.

We'll now look at revenue and profit performance by business unit. Despite high revenue comparables, all business units, except Denmark delivered higher EBIT than last year, driven by increased gross margins.

In Norway, EBIT was NOK 88 million, up 1% from last year, as healthy growth in revenue was partly offset by higher operating expenses.

In Sweden, EBIT grew by 10% to SEK 153 million as lower Hardware sales were offset by higher gross margins and a flat trend in operating expenses.

In Denmark, EBIT was DKK 13 million, down from DKK 18 million last year, due to lower Hardware sales.

In Finland, EBIT grew by 16% to EUR 2.9 million despite lower Hardware revenue based on strong growth in Services and improved margins.

In the Baltics, EBIT grew by 31% to EUR 1.6 million with higher sales and increased gross margins across all lines of business.

Atea Group Functions, which includes shared services and group costs, had a net operating expense of NOK 10 million compared with a net operating profit of NOK 2 million last year. The difference was mainly due to lower profits in Atea's Logistics operations. In sum, Atea's total EBIT in the third quarter was NOK 298 million, up 5.1% from last year.

Now we're on our cash flow and balance sheet. Atea's cash flow from operations was an outflow of NOK 301 million in the third quarter. As you can see on this chart, Atea's cash outflow in Q3 2023 is in line with normal seasonal patterns, where operating cash flow is typically negative in the third quarter due to higher working capital requirements. Cash flow has been seasonally high in Q4 as Atea reduces its working capital balance. Over the last four quarters, Atea has had a very strong cash flow from operations of NOK 1.9 billion.

Now, last year was an outlier to the ordinary seasonal trend. In 2022, cash flow was very weak in the first half of the year and then recovered in Q3. The abnormal cash flow trend in 2022 was due to the buildup and subsequent reduction of Atea's inventory levels during a period of supply constraints in the electronics industry.

Atea's strong cash flow from operations during the last 12 months has enabled the company to reduce its debt balance while still paying a high dividend and investing in growth. At the end of Q3, Atea had a net debt of NOK 171 million as defined by Atea's loan covenants. This compares with a net debt of NOK 700 million last year. Atea's net debt balance is NOK 4.7 billion less than the maximum allowed by its loan covenants at the end of Q3. The company has significant additional debt capacity before its loan covenants would be reached.

That concludes the presentation of the third quarter financial results. I'll now hand the podium back over to Steinar to discuss the outlook for Atea's business.

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Thank you, Robert. You really do get the easy part of this job, don't you?

About three years ago, we showed you this slide from IDC. It talks about the development over the next three years, if you look back three years, and it talks about what's called the Digital Spending Gap. I just thought I would start with this because I really feel that this hit the nail pretty well. You can always discuss some of the levels, but overall trend in this slide proves to hold up. Spending, if you follow IDC and us, will be good when you look at it from the IT side and it will increase or accelerate through the next couple of years.

I also thought I would like to spend a little bit of time just briefly discuss four of the balance sheet and P&L items to tell you a little bit about how we're thinking going forward. "Steady as she goes" can kind of be the theme. We keep to the plan. We see no reason not to.

On the EBIT side, improvement is really a part of our DNA and the culture of the company, but also the industry we're an integrated part of. At all times, we have EBIT improvement projects that we work with that has owners and dedicated people to them. Right now, we're working very hard on the managed services side, which shows very promising progress. We've spoken about that before, it's not new. The same thing with software and cloud and cloud adoption or multi-cloud adoption, I should say. We have just started a project on the vendor strategy, which will be implemented in Q4. All of this are to expand the margin, both on the product side and on the services side because the goal is always to grow EBIT faster than revenue.

On the cost side, we have an ongoing project called "A Smarter Atea", which is many things, but overall, has the motivation to get people around -- almost the 9,000 people around in the group to come with ideas on how to save cost or do more with the same because after all, the goal is to improve the ratio between OpEx and sales.

Market share. It's close to our hearts. We have always, always taken market share. We've been part of consolidating the Nordic and Baltic market for years and years and years. And now we're still taking market share, mostly organic, and we reached about 25% market share when Q3 closed.

And then fourth, capital. To stay with a very healthy balance sheet is probably one of the stronger assets of the company in the next couple of years as interest rates have taken a lot of company to a bad place these days. So with a strong cash situation, we are fresh and ready to take on competition in the years to come.

Very briefly on the three business lines that you know us through: Hardware, Software and Services. There is a solid underlying demand for Hardware. Yes, it was a little weaker in Q3, specifically on PC in most of the countries, and on server and storage in Denmark as the SKI agreement 50.03 was put on hold through this Q3 and slowed us down with somewhere around [ DKK 100 million ] of Hardware sales temporarily, but there is a solid demand. The supply chain is not longer an issue. And we will see a new trend in the future, which is called "compute at the edge", OT if you want, which specifically demands for buildup of hardware and infrastructure closer to where the data is created.

On the Software side, of course, there is a robust market with new apps and applications being launched and also with a constant pressure upwards on the pricing. The role of the reseller is strengthening and it's going to be strengthened in the years to come as infrastructure and the need for such will become more complex. The values that the reseller or integrator has to provide to the customer will be under pressure, which suits a company like Atea, which has a balanced and broad portfolio and offering.

On the Services side, I have to say that IT has never been as complex as it is right now, and it's changing fast, and there are new things thrown at us at all times. This strengthened the demand for consultancy but also managed services. The new release or new version, I should say, of Windows 11, which includes CoPilot for Windows, will keep on giving us opportunities in 2024, so will the release of CoPilot for Office 365 that are launched first of November. And general, AI will create opportunities. I mentioned managed services earlier. And again, we are far into the project, but there are still more to come.

But, our clearly strongest asset is our people and our culture. As many times as I have pointed this out and explained to you, I still think that you don't really get it, what is our secret source. So after three or four quarters of 2023, we come in with gross sales of NOK 37.5 billion, up 15%; EBIT of NOK 840 million, up 19%; and IFRS revenue of NOK 25.3 billion, up 12%; and an operating cash flow of NOK 244 million, up NOK 865 million from last year. Happy, but not completely satisfied.

And with that, we conclude the presentation and go to Q&A.

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. Thank you for the presentation, Steinar and Robert. Questions here.

First question, growth was on the top side in Q3. Can you make some comments about that project?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Yes. So first of all, I would say that if this is how bad looks, I'll take it any day of the week. But we're growing, but not as fast as maybe someone would have wished us for and maybe also us, so it is a little bit on the soft side. I agree to the essence of that question. And PC sales were down. We knew it would be down. I mean we -- that's something we predicted. And we said after Q2 that revenue growth would slow down and be in the single digits. But the 50.03 agreement in Denmark was not something we calculated in. And that affects both Hardware sales in general, but also EBIT in Denmark and EBIT in general. So a little softer, but not really a sign for a worry. And I must also say in Denmark, our sales were higher than the revenue, meaning that the backlog was actually growing through September.

[Unknown Executive]

I'm just going to connect another question related to Denmark here. Can you please elaborate on the situation in Denmark? And the pause contract for servers and storage products and how much of an impact did that have for Atea?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

So we have estimated that impact to -- in Denmark, to be about [ DKK 100 million ] in Q3. We are very sure that we're going to be going again in the beginning or mid-November. So it will have a positive impact on Q4. But in general, I would say that Denmark came in, I think it's DKK 4.5 million behind last year. It is only DKK 4.5 million. And I don't think people should overreact to this. The market is a little bit unpredictable. And as I said, the backlog in Denmark grew by more than [ DKK 70 million going ] through that quarter. So the sales were very close to where it should be.

[Unknown Executive]

Great. Just a slightly different topic from another question. You did not talk so much about AI into the presentation, while everybody else is talking about AI. Can you comment on that?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Yes. Well, I do agree that a lot of people talk about AI all the time. And I always remind myself and other people around me on something wiser people have said before me, that we, the people have a tendency to overreact to new things in the short term and underestimate the development over long term. And I think that's exactly what's happening on AI.

I think personally that AI will change everything. It will change how we work, we live and how we play, but not in Q4. And I have a Q4 to deliver. Windows 11 or the new release of Windows 11 will help us. It has parts of Microsoft's AI technology in it. And it's estimated that 7 million PCs in the Nordics doesn't have the capabilities of running Windows 11 or anything similar to it locally.

I also want to touch on the fact that we are pilot for Microsoft or CoPilot for Office 365. And we are weeks away from launching that -- or not we, but Microsoft in the industry. And so that is something that we're really looking forward to.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you. A question for both of you, I guess. Net working capital in Q2 was -- seems to be worse than seasonality would imply. You expected improvement in the second half of the year partly by reducing the receivables in Denmark. Are you still expecting...

[Robert Giori, executive]

Q2? Is that Q3?

[Unknown Executive]

I guess this is the type of Q3.

[Robert Giori, executive]

Q3, yes. No. As we went through in the presentation, this is an ordinary seasonal trend, Q3 would be down. We'd be building up working capital over the course of Q3. Q4 is when the cash flow from operations comes in. Some of the confusion may be coming from the fact that we had a very abnormal last year, that was an outlier to the trend, where Q1 and Q2 were extremely weak last year because of industry supply constraints, but then we had a strong cash flow from operations in Q3 last year.

So if you only look in isolation at last year when we were impacted by the industry supply constraints, it would look like it was a weak quarter. When you look at all of the -- or when you look at the four years before that, as we showed in the chart during the presentation, this is actually completely normal when it comes to the seasonality. Over the last four quarters, we've generated cash flow from operations of NOK 1.9 billion, and we expect to have a very strong Q4 on cash flow.

[Unknown Executive]

Great. There's a follow-up question here to your comment about Denmark. Is it correct as the gross margin on storage and server products is higher than the average gross margin for Hardware?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Very short answer, yes.

[Unknown Executive]

Yes. Thank you. Several questions here. You talked about a solid EBIT growth, but it is just 5%. Can you comment on that?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Yes. So first of all, I think that people have to understand the backdrop here. The market -- the Q3 is a difficult quarter, first of all. And so last year, Q3 was totally strange when you look at the history, like Robert went through very in-depth in his part of the presentation. So we believe that when all the dust has settled and all the companies have proven their numbers, our numbers will stand out. And that's why I'm saying it's strong and that on the back or in the backdrop of what's going on that we are really proud of the numbers.

[Unknown Executive]

Okay. I think a final question here. Two weeks ago, you launched Sovereign Cloud together with Microsoft. That sounds important. Can you please elaborate on this, please?

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

Yes. So this is a little bit technical and nerdy, I guess, for some people, but it really is important in the wider context. So in Europe, and I would say some of the European countries, specifically in Sweden being one of the [ Minor ] geography, the public sector has said no to using public cloud. And that is not good because public cloud is where a lot of the innovation happens and certainly where the innovation is launched first.

So we work with Microsoft since that is the biggest public cloud vendor that we work with to see how this is possible to solve either legally or technically and -- so that is what happened a couple of weeks ago that we launched a technical solution together with Microsoft that can lock the data, even though it's in public cloud, so no one, even through CLOUD Act, the American law, so FBI cannot go to Microsoft and see we want to look at that and that data because it's locked with two keys, two level of keys technically that only the customer can unlock. So they can actually use computers which are owned by American or foreign companies through that solution.

So that means going forward, we have been part of development together with Microsoft where it's all in Microsoft data center. So we have contributed with the customer knowledge and the customer intimacy that we have, especially in Sweden, to help solve this in a technical way for all of your -- and it's going to be interesting to see specifically when they start using AI for Office 365 CoPilot and so on, that this can actually unleash innovation to public sector in Sweden, but also, of course, in the other countries as they might want to take advantage of this to be on the safe side.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you.

[Steinar Sonsteby, executive]

So that concludes the presentation of the Q3 results here from Oslo. And we at Atea hope that you have a great day.