Aker Horizons ASA

OSE:AKH

Earnings Call Transcript 2022-Q4

[Kristian Rokke, executive]

A warm welcome to all joining this presentation of Aker Horizons Fourth Quarter Results. My name is Kristian Rokke, CEO of Aker Horizons. With me today are Nanna Tollefsen, CFO of Aker Horizons, who will walk through the financials; Kristoffer Dahlberg, CFO of Aker Horizons Asset Development Unit, who will review project developments in the hydrogen portfolio; and Mary Quaney, CEO of Mainstream Renewable Power, who will present the company's main developments in the quarter.

2022 was characterized by a volatile and uncertain macro environment, with the fourth quarter being no exception. Our portfolio company, Aker Carbon Capture, however, is benefiting from market tailwinds, securing several studies with new customers in new markets. The company is progressing well on its 2 large carbon capture projects under construction in Europe. Mainstream experienced challenges stemming from industry-wide supply chain and market-related issues, particularly in Chile.

However, the company also attained a milestone with 1.1 gigawatt solar and wind energized in the country. Good progress was also made in other geographies, including on wind and solar projects in South Africa and by signing a seabed lease agreement for offshore wind in the U.K.

Our hydrogen business under Asset Development is moving ahead on industrial partnerships and offtake agreements for the Rjukan green hydrogen and Narvik green ammonia projects in Norway. Going forward, we expect to see positive momentum across our 3 segments: renewable energy, carbon capture and hydrogen hubs, driven by the positive regulatory developments we're seeing in the U.S. and the European Union.

Turning to Aker Carbon Capture. Further equipment was installed at Brevik where ACC and Heidelberg materials are building the world's first carbon capture plant on a cement facility. In the Netherlands, key equipment was delivered from ACC suppliers throughout the past quarter. Last weekend, all 3 columns were installed at Twence, reaching a new major milestone for the Just Catch modular carbon capture plant. Back in Norway, the world's first carbon capture pilot for smelters was inaugurated in January, as ACC's mobile test unit was connected to Elkem's ferrosilicon and microsilica plant, in the Rana in Northern Norway. A second MTU is expected to be delivered and available for campaigns during 2023.

We are encouraged to see market activity picking up towards the end of last year and into 2023. Aker Carbon secured several studies and early phase awards over the past few months. At the start of the year, Aker Carbon Capture signed a letter of intent for 2 Just Catch units for an undisclosed European customer. This is a strong company with high credibility within the renewable energy and decarbonization space. The project has a capture capacity of 200,000 tonnes CO2 per year and the final investment decision is expected in the second quarter.

ACC became Viridor's partner on a pre-FEED study for the Runcorn CCS project in the fourth quarter. This project is shortlisted for U.K. Track 1 funding and has an impressive capture capacity of 1 million tonnes CO2 per year, a solid addition to ACC's strong U.K. market presence. ACC is delivering a pre-engineering study to energy company St1 for a carbon capture facility at a Finnish cement plant. The captured CO2 would be used for the first renewable synthetic methanol plant in Finland. Aker Carbon Capture's Just Catch unit could capture around 40,000 tonnes CO2 per year, enabling the production of 25,000 tonnes of methanol per year.

In Germany, Aker Carbon Capture was awarded a feasibility study for 2 carbon capture plants for Rohm, chemicals company to capture nearly 500,000 tonnes CO2 per year. It is encouraging to see greater acceptance for CCS in Germany.

With that, let's hand it over to Mary for an update on Mainstream.

[Mary Quaney, executive]

Thank you, Kristian. I am pleased to present Mainstream's progress during quarter 4 2022, starting with the key highlights for this period. I'm happy to report we now have 1.1 gigawatts of wind and solar assets delivering power to the Chilean grid. This is a very significant milestone in the delivery of our 1.4 gigawatts Andes Renovables platform. However, market challenges in Chile remain, although we saw reduced losses in Q4 compared to previous quarters, we have recognized an impairment of USD 350 million on the goodwill and intangible assets allocated to Andes, reflecting mostly a rising rate environment, as well as the current market conditions. During the quarter, we signed the seabed option agreement with Crown Estate Scotland for what we have named Arven Offshore Wind Farm. This is for a 1.8 gigawatts floating offshore wind farm we were awarded together with our 50:50 partner Ocean Winds off the coast of Shetland.

In Aker's home market, Norway, we're actively preparing for the upcoming offshore licensing round, which we are expecting to commence during the first half of 2023. In December, we signed the PPAs for our 6 solar projects in South Africa, which have a combined capacity of 450 megawatts. These projects were awarded to us under Round 5 of the government's renewable energy procurement program and our target is to reach the financial close this year. Our global pipeline now stands at 21.7 gigawatts up from 19 gigawatts in the previous quarter, due to additional early-stage development projects in South Africa, Australia, and Chile. We continue our rigorous financial discipline as well as the ongoing prioritization of key projects across all of our markets as key developments take place.

On the next slide, at a sector level, 2022 was a year of considerable change across the industry with many important factors in a state of flux throughout the year. I've broken down these factors into challenges and opportunities. On the challenges side, cost inflation has been the single biggest issue facing the industry since 2021. We are seeing signs that the pace of increase is beginning to slow down, which is in line with broader commodity prices globally. However, we're seeing a disconnect between the price of wind and solar technologies. At present, prices for wind turbines continue on an upward trend while we saw solar prices peak towards the end of 2022 and are showing signs of stabilizing for the present. Aligned with this is the significant and continued increase in interest rates globally. In the U.S., the 10-year U.S. treasury rate has increased to 237 basis points in 2022, interest rates have risen rapidly with the U.S. federal rate increasing by 450 basis points in 2022 and markets globally have followed a similar trajectory in a bid to dampen inflation.

In terms of opportunities, we are seeing a marked increase in political support for renewables, which is a critical factor for the long-term health of the industry. Importantly, now more than 135 countries have a target for Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions. Significant recent developments have been the European Commission's proposed Green Deal Industrial Plan for the Net Zero Age, as well as the U.S. government's Inflation Reduction Act, which was announced in Q3 2022, both of these promised to have considerable positive impact on the challenges currently impacting the sector. A critical factor impeding progress across many markets, it's slow, inefficient and uncoordinated permitting regimes, we have been working with industry associations, as well as unilaterally across many of our markets, calling on governments to give this immediate focus. We're seeing strong signals across markets, but this is getting the focus it needs.

From a power purchase agreement standpoint, we're seeing positive movement in the corporate environment where prices are now better reflecting market conditions. However, government auctions are slower to respond, which in some cases is leaving capacity at risk of being unfulfilled until prices adjust upwards in line with the new cost environment.

And on the next slide, which shows the key portfolio updates, starting with onshore wind and solar. In Chile, our 1.4 gigawatt Andes Renovables platform has made strong progress this quarter, with 1.1 gigawatts now installed and energized. One wind farm reached commercial operation in January and the second project is expected to reach commercial operation shortly. That gives us 8 out of 10 projects in the Andes portfolio operational, with the final 2 wind farms targeted to complete construction in 2024. The PPA renegotiations for the Humboldt portfolio, which is our next renewables platform in Chile, have ended without agreement. Our focus remains on maintaining financial discipline throughout the portfolio, particularly in the challenging macro environment, which I referred to earlier.

Staying in the Lat Am region, our 100-megawatt Andromeda solar farm in Colombia reached an important milestone this quarter securing its environmental approval.

Moving to South Africa, we've signed the project agreements, including the PPAs for our 6 solar plants with a combined capacity of 450 megawatts, awarded together with our partners under Round 5 of South Africa's renewable energy procurement program. This is a significant milestone in advancing the projects towards financial close, which is targeted for 2023. Staying in Africa, we announced the signing of an agreement for the planned sale of our Pan-Africa platform, Lekela Power to Infinity Group and Africa Finance Corporation. This transaction is on track to close in H1 this year, resulting a net proceeds to Mainstream of USD 90 million. In the Philippines, our 90 megawatts Libmanan offshore wind farm, which we are bringing forward with our local partner, AboitizPower, is progressing well and targeting financial close by the end of this year.

Moving then to the next slide to offshore. Starting in Norway, we signed agreements for our 2 offshore wind licensing areas during this quarter. In December, our consortium with Statkraft and Ocean Winds signed a strategic partnership with Aker Solutions for the delivery of floating wind at Utsira Nord. And in the same month, we signed an MoU with Windport for our consortium with BP and Statkraft at Sorlige Nordsjo 2. Just after the quarter-end, we submitted our response to the consultation from the Norwegian Oil and Energy Ministry and we are expecting the 2 competitions to commence during the first half of this year.

In South Korea, our KF Winds' floating wind project completed its geophysical survey this quarter and we continue to work towards completing the environmental impact assessment in 2024.

And finally, in Scotland, I would like to share more on the recent developments and outlook. In November, we signed the seabed option agreement with Crown Estate Scotland for our 1.8 gigawatt Arven Offshore Wind Farm, which we are developing with our partners, Ocean Winds. During this quarter, 3 key project team roles have been filled and the team has visited the Shetland Islands, conducting stakeholder engagements. Looking forward, the short-term priority is to commence environmental surveys this summer, which will take approximately 2 years, and another key activity for 2023 is the submission of a grid connection application to National Grid, the British TSO and the grid connection application and subsequent offer will provide further clarity then for the progression of the project.

Moving on to the next slide. On Chile, we've spoken previously regards market challenges. Mainstream was exposed to increased marginal costs and pricing volatility in 2022 resulting in a margin loss. These margin losses peaked in Q2 last year and have continued to reduce each quarter since as some peak pricing differentials have reduced and the Andes generation profile has increased. However, the energy market behavior remains volatile.

Chilean markets design and transmission system remains dislocated with operators exposed to an unfavorable differential in price between injection and withdrawal, elevated system costs, as well as curtailment risks. These challenges were compounded by the dramatic increases in international fossil fuel prices, a lack of available LNG imports to Chile, weak Chilean hydrology and PPA design.

With the Andes platform having now reached an installed capacity of over 1.1 gigawatts, mitigating factors include our diversified portfolio approach in Chile, both in terms of technology where we are deploying a spread of wind and solar technologies, as well as geography, as our assets are spread out across the country from north to south. Mainstream is actively pursuing further mitigation, including addressing the market inefficiencies with the regulator and government through industry associations and consulting with financial advisers on strategic and financial options.

Following consultation with market participants, the CNE or the regulator, has published a report with 15 measures proposed to be implemented in the short- and medium-term, we continue to engage with the CNE and relevant authorities on the measures required to improve the regulated market conditions.

In Mainstream's 2021 accounts, goodwill and intangible assets of around USD 500 million were recognized for the Andes portfolio, reflecting projected cash flows and the rate environment at the time. We now recognize an impairment of USD 350 million of this goodwill, reflecting an increased rate environment in the current market conditions. We're not recognizing an impairment in capital expenditure. Despite the short-term challenges, the medium- and long-term prospects for our development pipeline in Chile are strong, as there is a current slowdown in renewable plants being built, given the market conditions and significant demands of coal plants to be retired over the coming years.

Moving on to the next slide, which shows our global pipeline, that now stands at 21.7 gigawatts, which reflects a total increase of 5.1 gigawatts compared to the same quarter last year. This increase in our development pipeline is composed of the Arven floating offshore wind project in Scotland and our KF Wind floating offshore wind project in South Korea, which was part of the Aker Offshore Wind portfolio, which combined with Mainstream in 2022. The remaining increase came from early-stage development projects in South Africa, Australia and Chile.

We now have 1.5 gigawatts in construction and in commercial operations. We currently have 0.6 gigawatts in construction and 0.9 gigawatts in operation, which is an increase of 0.6 gigawatts in our operating assets compared to the same period last year. And a reminder that in addition to this, we have 10 gigawatts plus portfolio of projects in our pre-development pipeline.

These projects including power-to-X opportunities are currently undergoing feasibility analysis. And if successfully passing through the screening process, they then funnel through into our development pipeline.

And finally, with our strong and growing pipeline, we will continue our rigorous financial discipline, as well as the ongoing prioritization of key projects across all of our markets, as key developments take place.

And with that, I'll hand you over to Kristoffer.

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

Thank you, Mary, and good morning, everyone. We are continuing to mature our industrial project with a particular focus on our early-mover hydrogen plant in Rjukan and our large-scale green industrial hub in Narvik. In Rjukan, we have recently signed an MoU with a leading industrial gas company to jointly mature the project. We have also signed an LOI for substantial offtake. Both represent the key milestones in our effort to realize this project. Bringing in partners into our projects, such as potential feedstock providers, EPC contractors, and offtakers, is a key part of our strategy to accelerate the development and reduce the commercial risk. In Narvik, we are in an advanced dialogue with industrial partners for our large-scale green ammonia project. While strengthening our focus, our BD and origination efforts are progressing well. And today, we are introducing 2 new opportunities. I will dive deeper into this later in my presentation.

We are experiencing positive regulatory tailwinds in Europe, including the recently announced EU Green Deal, which aims to speed up permitting processes, set targets for production capacity, give more flexibility to provide state aid and create a new production and support scheme for green hydrogen. A draft EU Delegated Act was also recently published confirming that Norway can classify all hydrogen production using grid power as green. On the offtake side, we also see increasing demand and support for our projects.

As mentioned, in the Rjukan, we are joining forces with a leading industrial gas company, demonstrating the value and attractiveness of this project and also acknowledging the comprehensive and good effort performed by our team. The partner brings valuable industrial capabilities and are engaging directly in the technical and commercial development to safeguard the realization of a profitable project. Our facility in Rjukan will utilize existing infrastructure and industrial land, enabling early startup due to available power of site with planned commercial operation date in 2025 for the first phase.

The hydrogen from Rjukan can decarbonize the industry, heavy road transportation, and shipping in Eastern Norway at competitive price levels. With land and power secured, offtake is the last piece of the puzzle, and we recently signed an LOI with a major international offtaker for a substantial volume from Phase 1. We look forward to continuing our work together with our industrial partner adding complementary competence and resources to the project. The intention is to sign a joint development agreement before summer and co-develop the project towards a final investment decision. Rjukan is an important frontrunner in our portfolio, serving as our blueprint project, derisking our larger projects like Narvik technically, financially, and commercially.

And then moving to Narvik, where we are engaging with industrial partners to further mature our large-scale ammonia project towards a final investment decision. We are experiencing encouraging interest from international offtakers, which was demonstrated in relation to our application for project of mutual interest status in the EU. This status is important in order to be recognized as a key part of the Green European energy infrastructure and positions the project to receive EU funding under certain schemes. As part of the application, we received strong backing with letters of support from several major European offtakers and Norwegian authorities.

Before I introduce our 2 new opportunities, I will give some brief comments on the progress of our existing opportunities in Berlevag, Aukra, and Chile. In Berlevag, we're still working on a phased development of the project, following up on grid expansion plans and supporting studies to utilize available capacity in the area. We are maturing our large-scale hydrogen project in Aukra towards DG1 this summer together with CapeOmega and Shell. And we're encouraged by the positive market developments in Europe. In Chile, we are currently reviewing the conclusions from the recent feasibility studies and we have an ongoing dialogue with the authorities on the commercial terms for the land lease.

Turning to our 2 new opportunities, large-scale blue hydrogen in the Netherlands and large-scale green hydrogen in Tunisia. First, on the H2 Gateway project in the Netherlands. After the successful conclusion of a pre-feasibility study, we have recently signed an MoU with NAM, a Shell-Exxon joint venture, to develop an integrated blue hydrogen value chain in the Den Helder area in the Northwest of the Netherlands. Our feasibility study is now underway, which we expect to conclude by the early summer of this year for the development which will aim to supply large volumes of low CO2 content hydrogen to Europe. The project will benefit from proximity to a viable CO2 storage solution and direct access to the hydrogen backbone infrastructure in the Netherlands. This will also connect to the wider European hydrogen backbone opening a large market with a range of potential offtakers. In this project, we're aiming to source feedstock from incoming gas volumes from the Southern North Sea. We're encouraged by this opportunity, which further strengthens our ambitions as a major supplier of hydrogen to Europe by the late 2020s.

In Tunisia, we have formed a consortium of partners to mature a large-scale green hydrogen project based on low-cost solar power. We are joining forces with TuNur, a Tunisian renewable energy company; the European renewable energy and trading company, Axpo; as well as a second major European renewable energy company. Value chain integration is key to realize these large-scale projects and through these partners, we're covering large parts of the hydrogen value chain from feedstock to end consumer. Tunisia has ample renewable resources from solar power paving the way for competitively priced hydrogen. In addition, the country enjoys a key competitive advantage, which is significant pipeline infrastructure, which connects the country to the European market. The pipeline infrastructure is well placed to supply volumes to the planned European hydrogen backbone and enable the delivery of lost volumes of green hydrogen to satisfy the growing demands in Europe. This aligns well with the objectives of REPowerEU to import 10 million tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030.

And with that, I leave the word to Nanna for a financial update.

[Nanna Tollefsen, executive]

Thank you, Kristoffer. Starting on Slide 25. In the quarter, net asset values were down from NOK 16.5 billion in Q3 to NOK 15.1 billion at the end of Q4. Aker Horizons' net asset value of Mainstream has been reduced from NOK 12.9 billion in Q3 to NOK 12.2 billion in Q4. The Q4 net asset value of Mainstream reflects the most recent transaction value of EUR 2.3 billion adjusted for the subsequent impairment recognized in Mainstream's accounts of $350 million, which is equivalent to EUR 328 million.

This results in an adjusted net asset value for Mainstream of EUR 1.98 billion at a 100% basis, which translates to NOK 12.2 billion at 31st of December 2022, and that NOK 12.2 billion represents Aker Horizons' 58.4% share in the company at an exchange rate of NOK 10.5 per euro. The underlying impairment relates to goodwill and intangible assets allocated as excess values to the Andes portfolio in the purchase price allocation performed at year-end 2021. The impairment reflects an increased rate regime, as well as current market conditions.

For the adjustment of the net asset value, the effect of the impairment has been partially countered by the euro strengthening against the Norwegian kroner from NOK 9.6 to NOK 10.5. There has been no impairment to capital expenditure or to Aker Horizons' book value of investment in Mainstream.

Other changes in the net asset value include NOK 624 million reduction related to the share price of Aker Carbon Capture, decreasing by 17% in the quarter. Since quarter-end, we have seen the share price of Aker Carbon Capture increase again above Q3 levels. The remaining changes in the net asset value composition relate to investments in Asset Development including Narvik, as well as operating and interest costs.

The next slide shows Aker Horizons' parent and holding companies key financials for the fourth quarter. The EBITDA was negative NOK 41 million in Q4, reflecting general overhead in Aker Horizons. The net profit was negative NOK 713 million, reflecting also the value decrease in our listed shareholding in Aker Carbon Capture and other net financial items, mainly interest income and interest costs.

Cash flow from operating activities consists of running costs and interest received and paid and amounted to positive NOK 3 million in the quarter due to a positive working capital effect. Investing cash flows consists of investments in Narvik and in Asset Development. The net cash flow for the quarter was negative NOK 276 million and the cash balance was reduced from NOK 4.4 billion to NOK 4.1 billion.

This brings us to available liquidity on Slide 28. In addition to a cash position of NOK 4.1 billion, the RCF of EUR 500 million was undrawn at quarter-end, summing up to a total available liquidity of NOK 9.4 billion versus NOK 9.7 billion at Q3. The net interest-bearing debt position was up from NOK 1.6 billion at Q3 to NOK 1.9 billion at Q4, which then also reflects pay-in-kind interests, increasing net debt, but not affecting the liquidity today.

So summing up at Slide 29, Aker Horizons has gross asset values of NOK 21.2 billion, net interest-bearing debt of NOK 1.9 billion, and available liquidity of NOK 9.4 billion. The loan-to-value RCF covenants is defined as the net senior debt over the gross asset value and stood at negative 10% at Q4 giving significant headroom to our covenant of 50%.

With that, I give the word back to Kristian.

[Kristian Rokke, executive]

Thank you, Nanna. Let me share our views on recent regulatory developments that are positively impacting some of our key markets. Most notably, the European Commission's launch of the European Green Deal Industrial Plan in response to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. The prospect of growth in renewables and cleantech improved significantly with the passing of the IRA in August 2022.

This comprehensive and ambitious package of legislation is expected to generate record growth in investments in clean energy infrastructure in the United States. The EU is stepping up with the Green Deal Industrial Plan that was launched earlier this month. The plan aims to ensure a fast-track permitting for new projects and more flexibility to provide state aid, which would increase financial support to fast-track projects through tax incentives and subsidies.

The Commission will also launch a new production support scheme for green hydrogen in autumn 2023, aiming to have a similar impact as production support under the IRA. As we see it, the proposed incentives will kick-start the European market for clean hydrogen. Importantly, CCS is also mentioned explicitly in the plan as a key technology towards Net Zero.

Key elements of the plan will be relevant for Norway through the EEA agreement, including EU funding from the Innovation Fund for Norwegian hydrogen projects. Norway, we believe, is in a prime position to become a key supplier to the emerging markets for clean hydrogen in Europe with its renewable power generation system and access to many of the support schemes in Europe.

Wrapping up, it's evident our industry has been facing headwinds in 2022. Supply chain constraints, inflation and interest rates have all slowed renewable development globally. Investments in wind energy in Europe, for instance, fell in 2022 without a single major offshore wind FID. Despite these temporary setbacks, 2022 still saw a remarkable push for the energy transition triggered by the energy crisis in Europe. The EU's target of 20 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen supply by 2030 is twice the level of today's almost entirely natural gas base hydrogen production, which poses both an energy security risk and is a source of significant CO2 emissions. It will also allow for a clean and secure energy supply in hard-to-abate sectors such as steel production. Therefore, we still maintain that the outlook for green energy and green industry looks bright. Globally, Bloomberg expects clean power capacity additions to increase by at least 18% in 2023, shrugging off supply chain woes to hit yet another record at more than 450 gigawatts.

To navigate this dynamic market environment, Aker Horizons will maintain financial discipline to drive forward our prioritized projects. At the same time, we'll use our early mover position in key Net Zero segments as the energy transition accelerates. Specifically, in Aker Carbon Capture, 2023 is all about executing on key projects and turning promising growth prospects into firm orders. We've experienced a favorable shift for CCS over the past 12 months in both the U.S. and Europe, amongst a broad range of stakeholders, which we think bodes well for the company.

In Mainstream, our focus is on de-risking our position in Chile, progressing the project portfolio and preparing to partake in major offshore wind auctions taking place later this year. Norway featuring among the notable opportunities. The drive for renewables in offshore wind in particular is tremendous and Mainstream is committed to being a leading developer.

In Asset Development, as it relates to hydrogen, we aim to pass key decision gates towards final investment decisions in our prioritized projects, partnering with leading industrial actors and securing long-term offtake agreements. 2022 was below expectations for the hydrogen economy for several reasons, but we have seen increased momentum of late and are excited to see how this progresses in 2023.

That brings us to the end of the presentation. Let's now move to Q&A.

[Unknown Executive]

Now, we have time for some questions. And in addition to the speakers, we have Paul Corrigan, CFO of Mainstream Renewable Power in the room available to answer your written questions.

And the first one comes from Jorgen Lande at Danske Bank. Two questions. The first one is, on the Andes portfolio and the problems you encountered in Q4. Are these problems solved by now? Or is this a structural and lasting problem in Chile, also on new projects?

And the second question is based on your Slide 15 on key sector themes, how does this play out in terms of returns on invested capital for new projects in 2023, 2025? Are you looking at returns of same level, lower or higher?

So I think if we move to Mary for the first question on the Andes portfolio and Chile?

[Mary Quaney, executive]

Yes. The Chilean power market design is a nodal price design. And so just to explain what that means, there are more than 1,000 price zones in Chile, and all generation companies have been impacted by the high volatility on the marginal prices. 2022 was impacted by very high dramatic fossil fuel prices by low hydrology and we also had a lack of LNG imports into Chile, which caused very high price differentials between the injection and the withdrawal nodes, and that differential is a factor to which the regulated PPAs are exposed, which has resulted in a margin loss.

Over the last quarter, we've seen the situation improving as we have increased assets in operation, and as those price differentials have reduced. However, the risk still remains and the market remains very volatile. The impairments recognized is a non-cash impairment of goodwill and intangible assets allocated to Andes and that's reflective both of the current market conditions and of this higher rates environment.

We do expect the situation to improve over time, including a new transmission will come online and as market intervention take place. We are actively pursuing several avenues to mitigate the situation through working with our industry associations, as well as directly with the regulator and with the government, and we do see that the regulator is responsive and have proposed short- and medium-term measures that we see as a positive sign and show willingness to take action.

And regarding new projects, as these systemic issues that I have described primarily impact the regulated PPA market, these issues do not necessarily impact new projects, depending on the PPA structure. So for example, we see more favorable terms available in bilateral negotiations, which overcome or share some of the risks experienced.

And then I'll pass to Paul for the second question.

[Paul Corrigan, executive]

So in simple terms, the questioner asks, if we see return levels are staying the same, increasing or decreasing? We see them increasing. We target a spread over WACC for our returns as the underlying WACC rate has increased due to increased return requirements from risk-free rates and so on. We maintain the spread and we see an overall higher level of return coming through. We see this being achieved in a couple of ways. The primary way is an increase in power prices, that's higher contracted PPA prices that we've mentioned earlier in the deck and also higher forecasted merchant prices, or uncontracted prices that we're already seeing in the market. It's important to say that while we see prices increasing, we still are very bullish on growth because renewable PPA prices or renewable power is still cheaper than its alternatives even at these slightly elevated prices compared to historic levels.

[Unknown Executive]

Great. Now, the next question comes from Linda Sandvik of EnergiWatch. It is on January 2 Statnett said no to the Aker Horizons' projects in Narvik, applying for 1,130 megawatts of grid capacity with Aker Horizons and partner, Nordkraft. And the question is, what happens to the project in Narvik now? And that's for you, Kristoffer.

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

So first of all, we already have significant grid capacity secured on our sites in the Narvik area, which enables the establishment of green industries. So we have a good starting point. However, we need even more to realize our wider and larger industrial ambitions. And we will, together with our partner, Nordkraft, re-apply for extended grid capacity, and then we will demonstrate the maturity of our plants, which we believe will put us in a good position in this round.

[Unknown Executive]

A second question also related to hydrogen is from [ Chris Burkhart ]. And the question is, how does the European Commission's Green Deal Industrial Plan impact the attractiveness of the different projects of Aker Horizons' Asset Development in Norway, on carbon capture, hydrogen, ammonia and so on? So Kristoffer, if you would elaborate on that, please?

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

Yes. So first of all, we are very encouraged by the recent regulatory tailwind in Europe, following the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. The Green Deal includes many important aspects. So first of all, it says something about speeding up permitting and this is key for new projects as we see that permitting can be on a critical line for certain of these plants. The Green Deal also includes target for production capacity, boosting the supply chain for hydrogen and other green industries in Europe.

And further, it adds more flexibility to provide state aid, which is very important to enable more direct support from the EU and EEA countries. And lastly, it also, the Green Deal entails a new production support scheme for green hydrogen, which have a pilot of around EUR 800 million that will be handed out through an auction with a fixed premium for every kilogram of renewable hydrogen. So this is obviously very positive for us. An important element of the plan is likely to be relevant for Norway through the EEA agreement, giving a positive boost to our Norwegian projects. So we look forward to get the deal finalized towards the summer and then see the country-wise implementation following that.

[Unknown Executive]

Okay. Now, we have a question from Roald Hartvigsen of Clarksons. And it's how are you navigating the grid constraints we're currently seeing in South Africa? And what is your view on the development of transaction multiples for renewable projects and assets over the last year? And how you view the potential discrepancies between the valuation of listed and non-listed renewable assets at the moment? So Paul, please?

[Paul Corrigan, executive]

I'll take the first question just in terms of South Africa. The key issue for grid constraints typically applies to us in the rollout of future projects. So in the context of the grid is being awarded by -- under the various auctions from the historic reprocesses. So our previous successes came both with PPA and confirmation of grid availability. The first implication of this is that, it means our existing grid positions are very valuable. And the second impact on it is that, for future development, we are required to and have always placed a lot of emphasis on where we see grid capacity being available. So it's one that we're actively monitoring and maintaining a firm view on from a development perspective in terms of future rollout, but also prioritizing the existing positions that we have.

In terms of the second point, this is one that's much more subjective. We see individual transactions, but -- and there's no doubt that prices have moved on over the last 12 and 24 months. I think it's different on a market-by-market basis. We do see some attractive opportunities in different markets. And I think that the discrepancy between listed and non-listed has narrowed over the last period, and we're seeing much more sort of common sense pricing come through to the market as a result of various challenges, and other market movements.

[Unknown Executive]

Thank you, Paul. That concludes our presentation this morning. We thank you for your attention. And as always, we're happy to follow up with one-on-one through our Investor Relations function with the questions you may have, and we look forward to engaging with you again at the next opportunity.

With that, thanks for your attention, and we wish you a great day.