Aker Horizons ASA

OSE:AKH

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Kristian Rokke, executive]

A warm welcome to all joining this presentation of Aker Horizons Third Quarter Results. I'm Kristian Rokke, CEO of Aker Horizons. Joining me are Nanna Tollefsen, CFO of Aker Horizons; Kristoffer Dahlberg, CFO of Aker Horizons Asset Development Unit; Mary Quaney, CEO of Mainstream Renewable Power, who will present the company's main developments in the quarter. At the end, we'll open up for Q&A.

Starting with the summary of the main developments in the quarter. Aker Carbon Capture is benefiting from the increasing levels of commercial activity in the CCS market in both Europe and North America. This has translated into growth in pre-FEEDs and studies with order intake year-to-date covering 9 million tonnes of CO2 per year.

In July, the company signed an MOU with Aramco, one of the world's leading integrated energy and chemicals companies, to explore partnership opportunities to deploy CCUS and industrial modularization in Saudi Arabia. The company's 3 major projects currently underway are progressing well.

The company's order backlog grew to NOK 3 billion in the quarter, up from NOK 1.5 billion year-over-year. Mainstream Renewable Power made significant progress in the ongoing judicial reorganization proceedings in Chile. On October 2, the project finance lenders voted to support the company's restructuring plans for the Huemul Energia and Condor Energia companies, which form part of the company's Andes Renovables Wind And solar platform in Chile.

With the reorganization process in Chile set to reach a conclusion shortly, Mainstream has moved to implement several measures to position the company for future growth, including streamlining operations, optimizing the portfolio to focus resources on certain markets and projects with the greatest near-term value potential and reducing the cost base significantly. Our conviction remains for developing renewable energy despite ongoing challenges in the market.

In the hydrogen industry, Aker Horizons' flagship Narvik Green Ammonia project is steadily maturing. A few weeks ago, we announced that Statkraft, Europe's largest producer of renewable energy, has joined us as an industrial partner. This week, we were able to announce that Statnett is allocating 250 megawatts in additional grid capacity to Kvandal for a large-scale green ammonia plant. Statnett also awarded 120-megawatt grid capacity to the Green Ammonia project in Berlevåg, Northern Norway.

A few words about the overall market. 2023 has been marked by geopolitical tensions, fragile energy markets, a demanding macroeconomic situation and slow progress in introducing the required regulatory support in some regions to enable the green energy transition. This has impacted several of our key projects.

However, we are seeing positive signs that policies and market developments are starting to churn. The EU is increasing efforts to accelerate wind deployment, both onshore and offshore, the most notable example being the action plan for European wind power launched by the European Commission last week. The plan includes specific actions to help the wind industry, both offshore and onshore, to accelerate deployment through increased predictability and faster permitting, improved auction design as well as access to finance.

Norway and Denmark have introduced new CCS support schemes. And the EU has adopted the new Renewables Energy Directive #3, requiring that 42% of the hydrogen used in industry and member states should come from green hydrogen by 2030. Over to Aker Carbon Capture.

The company reported significant growth in pre-FEEDs and studies in the quarter with order intake year-to-date covering around 9 million tonnes of CO2 per year. Through the third quarter, Aker Carbon Capture saw good progress on its major projects.

At Twence waste-to-energy plant in the Netherlands, all equipment and piping has been installed and commissioning activities have started. ACC plans for the Just Catch unit to be delivered by the end of this year, on track to start capturing 100,000 tonnes of CO2 per year by 2024.

At the CCS facility at Heidelberg Materials Cement plant in Brevik, Norway, ACC successfully completed the first heavy lift campaign. When complete, the Brevik plant will be right to capture 400,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.

For Ørsted Kalundborg hub for CCS, the container fabrication for the modular Just Catch units has started. Here, ACC is delivering 5 modular and configurable Just Catch 100 units and additional equipment such as liquefaction, temporary CO2 storage and on-off loading facilities. This project is a milestone for serial production of Just Catch units and will enable ACC to deliver cost efficient and fast deployment of carbon capture. The total capacity for this project being 0.5 million tonnes CO2 per year.

Last 2 of ACC's FEED and pre-FEED projects in the U.K. are in the final negotiations for government support, and we expect some important decision points to be reached in the next 6 to 12 months. The U.K. remains a very important market for CCS, and ACC's projects there will play a significant role in the delivery of the company's big catch license and key equipment offering for mega scale carbon plants.

ACC's backlog remained strong at NOK 3 billion on the back of the Ørsted Kalundborg CCS Award in the second quarter. The company's extended revenue growth in Q3, more than doubling its top line compared to the same period last year and maintaining a solid cash position at NOK 1.3 billion.

In July, Aker Carbon Capture signed an MOU with Aramco, one of the world's leading integrated energy and chemical companies, to explore partnership opportunities to deploy CCUS and industrial modularization in Saudi Arabia. This MOU is a potential first step for ACC into the Middle East. Aramco is a value partner for several companies in the Aker Group, and we have great hopes that this partnership can support Saudi Arabia's important journey towards net 0 emissions. The country targets CCUS of 9 million tonnes CO2 per year from 2027, expanding to 44 million tonnes CO2 per year by 2035.

The MOU will focus on carbon emissions reduction and removal through modular carbon capture as well as developing local supply chains and module fabrication. ACC was awarded a number of strategic pre-FEEDs and studies across Europe and North America in the quarter.

In Europe, the company strengthened its foothold with pre-FEEDs and studies in Sweden, Germany and France for waste-to-energy, biomass and power plants, all based on its standardized and modular Just Catch and with a capacity between 200,000 and 250,000 tonnes of CO2 per year, a clear sign that there is a strong interest for the Just Catch product in the market.

In the U.S., ACC was awarded a Big Catch study, covering emissions from several mineral production facilities with a combined capacity of 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year. And recently, the company signed a pre-FEED contract for a major European power company, covering a portfolio of power plants in Europe. The planned capture capacity could reach up to 14 million tonnes CO2 per year for the applicable sites. Some of these plants have the potential to become the largest carbon capture plants in Europe. And with that, I'll hand it over to Kristoffer.

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

Thank you, Kristian. Aker Horizons asset development is making good progress on the project portfolio. Here are some of the highlights from the third quarter.

Statkraft joined as an industrial partner at our Narvik Green Ammonia project, bringing significant and important competence on power markets and project development, to mention a few. Together, we aim to bring the project to concept select and decision gate to next year. We are pleased to have Statkraft on board. Their entry is a testament to the attractiveness of our project. It also reduces our [ devex ] exposure in the current phase.

Earlier this week, we announced the award of 250-megawatt of additional grid capacity from Statnett to the project. This allocation adds a very important ingredient in realizing large-scale green ammonia production in the Narvik region. We now have sufficient grid capacity to produce thousands of green ammonia per day.

We were also allocated 120 megawatts for our green ammonia Berlevåg facility. And similarly to Narvik, this is an important component to realizing the project. The effect this will have on the project timeline concept is being worked out and will be communicated in due course.

We see continued progress in the EU when it comes to support schemes, as the union works towards reaching its 20 million tonnes of clean hydrogen target. The details on the EU Hydrogen Bank were released in August, and our Rjukan project is well positioned to participate. Another positive development was the adaptation of the Renewable Energy Directive 3 in the quarter, which requires that industrial users of hydrogen use 42% green hydrogen by 2030.

Moving to Narvik, our large-scale green ammonia project. We have established a joint project team with Statkraft and [ Initiate Work ], recently visiting the site and meeting with local stakeholders in Narvik. The response is very good, and we're pleased with the local support for the project.

The technical work is progressing, and our pre-FEED partner is well underway with conducting the Pre-FEED study. At the site, the civil and electrical works are nearing completion. And soon, we have a 230-megawatt grid connection ready built. The site is 25 hectares, zoned for power-intensive industry, leveled and construction ready. The infrastructure on the land is established with internal roads, fiber access, water, et cetera. And the site is only 15 minutes away from the city of Narvik and 35 minutes away from Evenes Airport. The size is large enough to both house our large-scale ammonia plant and other power-intensive industries, and we are currently in dialogues with parties for other industrial initiatives at the site.

We also have 7 other industrial sites under development in the region. In total, close to 300 hectares. All are in power area NO4, which has a surplus of green hydropower. The majority of these sites are in advanced stages of zoning. We are experiencing good interest in our sites from power-intensive industries, and we'll continue to work on establishing this as an attractive business for Aker Horizons.

The rest of our key hydrogen assets are shown here. At Rjukan, we are optimizing the concept to the market and pushing our financial commitments with the aim of reaching FID next year. The key focus is on securing a commercially robust setup with a balanced risk reward. This takes time in the nascent market for green hydrogen.

At Berlevåg, we welcome the grid award from Statnett, which is an important element in designing a competitive concept. The team is assessing how we can design a robust project with this as a foundation. At Aukra, we are encouraged to see the Norwegian and German governments setting up a joint task force to follow up the feasibility study on a dedicated hydrogen pipeline between the West Coast of Norway and Germany. The common intent between the countries is to ensure a large-scale supply of hydrogen from Norway by 2030.

As mentioned, we see the EU taking action to meet its target of 20 million tonnes of clean hydrogen by 2030. Roughly half of this will be imported, and we believe Norway is in a pole position to be a key contributor to this. We and Aker Horizons are well positioned with several projects in Norway that can supply hydrogen to Europe. Our natural advantage with low-cost green baseload power and in some areas, oversupply of such power paves the way for competitively priced products. The ongoing Norwegian-German collaboration is key to enabling large-scale exports by pipeline from Aukra. We're also looking into establishing infrastructure together with partners from our green hydrogen assets in Narvik, Berlevåg and Rjukan.

Thank you for your attention. I now leave the word to Mary.

[Mary Quaney, executive]

Thank you, Kristoffer. Before taking you through Mainstream's third quarter developments, I would first like to step back for a moment. While 2023 has been a very difficult period for both Mainstream and the wider industry, we are taking clear actions to address these challenges. The coming slides highlight our progress on this, including restructuring and mitigation strategy in Chile, actions to materially reduce the cost base, a changed focus on priority projects and meaningful progress in South Africa and the Philippines.

Moving on to the key highlights for the quarter. We currently have 1.1 gigawatts of fully operational wind and solar assets, delivering power to the Chilean grid, 0.3 gigawatts of which reached commercial operation at the start of this year. Reaching over 1 gigawatt of operational capacity is a significant milestone for the Andes Renovables platform. However, the Andes Renovables platform continues to face severe market challenges. Encouragingly, though, our mitigation strategy is progressing with Mainstream achieving a positive commercial margin in Q3. The restructuring in Chile is nearing a conclusion with project finance lenders voting to support the company's restructuring plans on October 2, and closing is expected in the coming weeks.

In South Africa, the solar project for which we recently signed a corporate power purchase agreement is expected to reach financial close before year-end. And we also sold a 280-megawatt cluster of onshore wind projects, which are in the late stages of development.

In the Philippines, the Libmanan onshore wind project, a joint venture with AboitizPower, was awarded tariff for circa 50-megawatt capacity. In Scotland, the Arven Offshore Wind project increased by 500 megawatts to 2.3 gigawatts, following the 50% acquisition of Ocean Winds adjacent site. Together with Ocean Winds, we are 50-50 partners on the combined 2.3 gigawatt site.

In Sweden, an application has been submitted for the Dyning floating wind farm, the third application this year with our 50-50 partner, Hexion. And finally, in quarter 3, we initiated an organizational review across the group that focuses on streamlining operations, reducing our cost base significantly and optimizing our portfolio. I will discuss this plan, its implications and the targeted 30% reduction in cost base in more depth on the next slide.

In response to a series of challenges impacting the renewable energy sector globally, including rising costs driven by inflation, high interest rates and supply chain disruption and having sustained financial losses due to market distortions in Chile, we carried out a comprehensive strategic review of the business and operations. As a result of this, we have now carried out an organizational review across the group, which takes into consideration 6 main points.

Project prioritization is central to this, and we will be prioritizing 10 gigawatts of projects across our predevelopment and development pipeline, focusing on those which have the greatest near-term value creation potential. By leveraging our core development competencies, we will capitalize on this expertise to advance the circa 10 gigawatts of prioritized projects.

In turn, those projects have been selected to have both the highest value creation potential and also strongest opportunity to deliver more consistent capital recycling. We are streamlining our operations by focusing on operational efficiency through a more central and simplified operating model. We are targeting to reduce our cost base by over 30% to deliver an expected annual saving of more than EUR 45 million. This leaner cost base will play to and focus on our core development strengths. Together, we believe this more global aligned and integrated strategy will strengthen our position, allowing for stronger partnering opportunities in core markets.

Moving on then to Chile and starting with a regulatory update. Chile's Energy Minister, Minister Pardow, proposed an energy transition bill to Senate this July, which importantly includes the need to accelerate the rollout of infrastructure, especially transmission and battery storage. A tender announced for accelerated battery storage expansion of USD 2 billion and up to 2 gigawatts by 2026. And another significant feature of the proposed bill is the Ingresos Tarifarios proposal, which is to reallocate revenues to compensate renewable generators exposed to high internodal price spreads.

On the market backdrop, we have seen a significant improvement in hydrology performance as El Nino's heavy rains are back after 3 years of La Nina. And this has resulted in the 2021/2022 period being the driest year of the last 15 years, which was a factor driving high marginal pricing on the system, which is a negative effect given the market exposure in the regulated PPAs.

To date, in 2023, hydrology levels have improved, which improves the position. There has also been a normalization in international fuel prices, gas and coal, which has a high correlation with internodal price difference and system costs and typically with a 3- to 6-month lag effect on system. Combined, these have resulted in a positive reduction in the average system costs and internodal costs versus Q3 2022.

As mentioned in Q2, our mitigation strategy has helped to reduce Mainstream's exposure to power losses. Most recently, this included the termination of Cory's distribution company, PPA, due to force majeure, which became effective from July 14 this year. We were also successful in the temporary withdrawal of the Caman wind farm distribution company, PPA in June, from its participation in the short-term power market due to delays in its construction that has been caused by a rage of external factors beyond our control.

This facilitates a reduction in Mainstream's exposure by removing its fiscal PPA exposure during such time as the withdrawal is effective. Despite system curtailments, given the improvements discussed in the market backdrop and operations, Mainstream's Andes operations delivered a positive commercial margin in Q3.

Regarding construction. Unfortunately, construction for both the Cory and Caman wind farms remains on hold. For Cory, the main cause of this arises from the discovery of important archeological findings that resulted in Chile's National Monuments Commission, the CMN, halting all works on site pending ongoing archeological survey works.

While for Caman, construction activity has remained on hold following an arson attack on the project site in June. We have an ongoing constructive engagement with the CMN around Cory with construction expected to resume shortly with an aim to complete construction maintained for 2025, while the Caman project remains under review.

Following constructive dialogue with lenders on the long-term capital structure for the Andes Renovables platform, on October 2, we announced that project finance lenders voted to support the company's restructuring plans pursuant to the reorganization proceedings. And while the reorganization plans remain subject to certain key conditions, we are nearing a conclusion and we expect that the transaction closing will occur in the coming weeks.

And now moving on to key portfolio updates for onshore wind and solar. In South Africa, we successfully sold our Beaufort West Cluster in September, which had a 280-megawatt wind capacity and was originally part of Round 5 projects. Given the challenge for the remaining Round 5 projects, we are now progressing solutions outside of the REIPP process to allow these projects to be delivered in South Africa. We expect to achieve financial close on the recently signed 100-megawatt corporate PPA in the coming weeks. We see significant opportunities for growth in the corporate PPA sector in South Africa. And as such, we are in active discussions with a number of potential private off-takers.

In the Philippines, the Libmanan onshore wind project in partnership with AboitizPower was awarded a 49.9-megawatt tariff in the Philippines Green Energy Auction Program in July. And this is a clear positive for this late-stage development project ahead of its targeted start to construction in 2024.

And now on to key portfolio updates for offshore wind. In August, Mainstream expanded its offshore wind portfolio with the acquisition of a 50% stake in Ocean Winds 500 megawatts adjacent ScotWind site. This expands the Arven Offshore project, a 50-50 joint venture between Mainstream and Ocean Winds, to 2.3 gigawatts made up of 2 sites that will now be developed jointly to maximize their potential.

In Sweden, Freja Offshore, our 50-50 joint venture with Hexicon, submitted an offshore wind permit for the 2.5 gigawatt dining offshore wind farm at the end of October. And this is a floating wind site on the East Coast, and it is Freja Offshore's third planning application this year.

In mid-October, the Norwegian government announced a delay to both offshore wind licensing rounds. Mainstream was ready to submit applications for both sites on November 1 and currently working towards the prequalification for SN 2 with our consortium partners, BP and Statkraft on the 15th of November, while we wait for an updated timeline for Utsira Nord.

In South Korea, following the approval of the draft Environmental Impact Assessment report in Q2, KF Wind is preparing the final version of the report for submission. Other surveying work has continued in Q3 following the approval of the draft EIA.

And finally then on to our project pipeline. The global pipeline now stands at 20.8 gigawatts on a year-on-year basis. This has grown by 1.9 gigawatts, reflecting the increase of Scotland in Q3 and from early-stage development projects in South Africa and Australia. Within our development pipeline, late-stage projects now stand at over 5 gigawatts, made up of Stage 4 being permit application ready projects and Stage 5 construction-ready status projects. Operationally, we have 1.1 gigawatt in full operation, an increase of 0.3 gigawatts since the same period last year and driven by the increasing level of Andes projects reaching commercial operations.

As discussed at the start of my presentation with our organizational review, we will now be prioritizing 10 gigawatts of projects across our predevelopment and development pipeline, focusing on those which have the greatest near-term value creation potential. Despite the challenges we are working through, we believe that with the combination of our organizational review, conclusion of restructuring plans in Chile, material cost base reductions and the continued support of our shareholders, Mainstream will navigate the current market challenges.

And with that, I hand you over to Nanna.

[Nanna Tollefsen, executive]

Thank you, Mary. In the quarter, Aker Horizons net asset values decreased from NOK 11.1 billion in Q2 to NOK 10.2 billion at the end of Q3. This decrease was driven primarily by a decline in the share price of Aker Carbon Capture during the quarter, as well as operating costs and interest expenses.

The next slide shows Aker Horizons parent and holding companies key financials for the third quarter. The EBITDA was negative NOK 26 million in Q3, reflecting general overhead in Aker Horizons. The net profit was negative NOK 823 million, reflecting also the share price development of Aker Carbon Capture and other net financial items, mainly interest income and interest costs.

Cash flow from operating activities consists of running costs and interest received and paid and amounted to negative NOK 42 million in the quarter. Investing cash flows consist of investments in our green projects in Narvik and in asset development.

The net cash flow for the quarter was negative NOK 104 million, and the cash balance was reduced from NOK 3.6 billion to NOK 3.5 billion. This brings us to available liquidity. The RCF of EUR 500 million was undrawn at quarter end. With a cash position of NOK 3.5 billion and the RCF undrawn, that sums up to a total available liquidity of NOK 9.1 billion. This is down from Q2 at NOK 9.4 billion, as the cash position is reduced by NOK 104 million, while the Norwegian kroner has strengthened somewhat against the euro, which the RCF is denominated in.

The net interest-bearing debt position was up from NOK 2.6 billion at Q2 to NOK 2.8 billion at Q3, reflecting the same operating cost interest paid and received and investments in our green projects in addition to interest peaked.

Summing up, Aker Horizons has gross asset values of NOK 16.5 billion, net interest-bearing debt of NOK 2.8 billion and available liquidity of NOK 9.1 billion. The loan-to-value RCF covenant is defined as net senior debt over the gross asset value and stood at negative 7% at Q3 with significant headroom to our covenant of 50%.

That brings us to the end of our presentation, and we open up for Q&A.

[Marianne Stigset, executive]

Thank you, Nanna. This is Marianne Stigset, Head of Communications and External Affairs at Aker Horizons, and I will lead you through the Q&A segment of this presentation. Just as a reminder, you can send us your questions by e-mail to [e-mail].

First question out is regarding our green ammonia project in Narvik. So I'll direct this one to you, Kristoffer. You announced the award of 250-megawatt additional grid capacity from Statnett. Do you now have the grid capacity you need to proceed with the large-scale facility you have planned?

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

Thanks, Marianne. So grid is obviously an important ingredient to secure in power-intensive industries. And with the green transition, this is becoming an increasingly scarce resource. So we're very happy with the award, which gives us sufficient grid capacity to produce 1,000 tonnes of green ammonia per day, which is a substantial amount.

And the allocation brings us one step closer to realize the project and is a testament to all the great work done by the team. Our local partner, Nordkraft, was instrumental in securing this. So a special thanks to them and very good news for the project.

[Marianne Stigset, executive]

Thank you, Kristoffer. The second question we have here is -- pertains to Chile, so I will direct this one to you, Mary. Following your positive lender vote in October, can you update us on timings around next steps? Is there anything you can share on what it means for the Chile Andes platform?

[Mary Quaney, executive]

Thank you. Yes, I'm very glad to be able to say that the restructuring of the Condor and the Huemul portfolios in Chile are now approaching the final stages. The creditors' vote, as mentioned on the 2nd of October, which was the creditors voting in support of the company's restructuring plans, which is subject to conditions. However, I'm confident that it paves the way for the transaction closing to take place now over the coming weeks.

The debt restructuring will stabilize the Condor and Huemul portfolios through a restructuring and reprofiling of the project finance and the mezzanine debt. And this is designed to stabilize the portfolios over the short to medium term. And then that, coupled with progress towards market reform that we're seeing in the market, we expect the longer-term market performance to be strong.

[Marianne Stigset, executive]

Thank you, Mary. And then we have another question on grid capacity regarding Aker blue hydrogen project. So back to you, Kristoffer. Aker Horizons had also submitted an application for grid at Aukra. What was the reason why you were not allocated a grid there?

[Kristoffer Dahlberg, executive]

Yes, thanks. So first of all, we are in close dialogue with Statnett on the matter. The feedback we get for the Aukra project is that it's mature and fulfills the demand from Statnett to get allocated grid except on 1 parameter. The project is not incorporated yet and the collaboration is based on agreements. We see this as a practical hurdle, which we expect to close shortly together with our partners, Shell and CapeOmega, and we expect to have sufficient grid in place well in time to reach the milestones in the project.

[Marianne Stigset, executive]

Thank you, Kristoffer. Those seems to have been the questions we've received so far. If you have any additional questions we didn't cover, feel free to e-mail us at [e-mail]. And with that, I wish you all a good day, and look forward to welcoming you again to our Q4 2023 results on February 15, 2024.