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Aker Horizons ASA
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Earnings Call Analysis

Summary
Q2-2024

Strong Project Development and Financial Gains

In the second quarter, Aker Horizons saw significant developments including a joint venture with SLB that brought a gain of NOK 4.9 billion. Mainstream Renewable Power expanded in Australia and Sweden, acquiring a 2.5-gigawatt offshore wind license in Victoria and a positive recommendation for a 2.5-gigawatt floating wind farm in Sweden. Progress in Chile included an additional EUR 20 million from the Tariff Stabilization Law. Overall, Aker Horizons reported a net income of NOK 4.4 billion, with healthy liquidity and continued investment in green projects.

Earnings Call Transcript

Earnings Call Transcript
2024-Q2

from 0
K
Kristian Rokke
executive

A warm welcome to all joining today's presentation of Aker Horizons' second quarter 2024 results. I'm Kristian Rokke, CEO of Aker Horizons. Joining me are Kristoffer Dahlberg, CFO of Aker Horizons; and Mary Quaney, CEO of Mainstream Renewable Power, who will present the company's main developments in the quarter. You are invited to submit your questions throughout the presentation and we'll respond to them in the Q&A session at the end.

Starting with the summary of the main developments in the quarter. The second quarter was marked by the successful completion of the announced joint venture between Aker Carbon Capture and SLB, which includes the sale of ACC ASA of 80% of its shares and Aker Carbon Capture Holding AS to a subsidiary of SLB. The transaction resulted in a net accounting gain for ACC of NOK 4.9 billion, which is also reflected in Aker Horizons' consolidated income statement. The new company combines technology portfolios, expertise and operations platforms to bring carbon capture solutions to market faster and more economically. And we're pleased to see that the integration of the 2 companies is advancing well.

Mainstream Renewable Power continued to execute on its near-term pipeline and made significant progress delivering on its strategy in Australia and Sweden, advancing value-creating projects. In Australia, Mainstream expanded its footprint after being awarded a 2.5-gigawatt offshore wind feasibility license in the Gippsland region of Victoria as well as a 500-megawatt onshore wind investigative permit in New South Wales. With its wealth of renewable energy resources, compelling market fundamentals and supportive government policies, Australia represents an attractive market for both onshore and offshore wind for Mainstream.

In Sweden, Mainstream's 50-50 joint venture with Hexicon, Freja Offshore, received a positive recommendation from the County Board of Västra Götaland for its 2.5-gigawatt Mareld Floating Offshore Wind Farm. Mainstream's Andes Renovables platform in Chile continues to deliver positive commercial margins and recognized an additional EUR 20 million in revenues following the publication of the country's first Tariff Stabilization Law decree on July 5. This law allows the release of payments corresponding to a delay in the indexation adjustments to the PPA price to Mainstream since July 2022.

In the hydrogen segment, Aker Horizons Asset Development made material progress on its key projects while maturing exciting new opportunities for power-intensive industries at its sites in the Narvik region. The Rjukan project was scaled up to 40 megawatts gaseous hydrogen capacity, leveraging existing allocation of 50-megawatt grid capacity. Also in the second quarter, our cooperation agreement was signed with a data center developer EPC company to explore powered shell opportunities at our sites in Northern Norway.

Lastly, a few words on how we've seen our markets develop in recent months. China has been the main driver behind the growth in global clean energy investments in the last few years. However, we are now also seeing strong momentum in other markets. Investments in clean-tech factories, such as solar batteries, electrolyzer assembly and wind turbines, have long been dominated by China. But according to BNEF, investments in the U.S. and Europe are now set to increase significantly in 2024 and 2025, while growth investments in China is expected to level off in 2025.

China has also long been dominating the global additions for offshore wind, but additions elsewhere in the world are now the main reason behind the all-time high for global offshore wind additions expected in 2024 as markets in Europe and the U.S. are ramping up. BNEF expects the 7.3 gigawatts of offshore wind outside China will achieve commercial operations this year, close to a doubling from 2023.

In the hydrogen space, Europe is now taking important steps to develop the infrastructure needed for a functioning market. Recently, the European Commission approved a EUR 3 billion German government scheme to support the construction of a hydrogen core network. The total cost of the network is close to EUR 20 billion and is expected to start transporting the first volumes of hydrogen in 2025. Once fully completed, the project will consist of 9,700 kilometers of pipeline connecting ports, industry, power plants and storage facilities in Germany.

Moving on to the most significant development this year, the successful completion of the transaction to create a joint venture between Aker Carbon Capture and SLB, building on the long-standing collaboration between SLB and the Aker Group. The transaction was completed in June, and SLB now owns 80% of the combined business, while ACC owns 20%.

ACC ASA booked a gain on the sale of NOK 4.9 billion, and the cash position at the end of the second quarter was NOK 4.5 billion. ACC will be entitled to a performance-based payment of up to NOK 1.4 billion. The performance-based payments will be subject to the achievement of certain milestones, order intake and margin targets in the period 2025 to 2027. This gives a total potential consideration of NOK 5.9 billion for the transaction.

Valborg Lundegaard has been appointed CEO of ACC ASA, while Egil Fagerland has assumed the role of CEO of the Joint Venture, which will be headquartered in Oslo. The Board of Directors of ACC ASA is in the process of defining the future strategy and structure of the company, including the framework for the use of proceeds from the transaction with SLB.

With that, I'll hand it over to Mary to present the developments in Mainstream.

M
Mary Quaney
executive

Thank you, Kristian.

And starting with the key highlights for Mainstream in Q2. Our 1-gigawatt Andes Renovables platform in Chile continues to demonstrate resilience by maintaining a positive commercial margin despite market challenges in the quarter that I will expand on in the next slide. Construction activities for the CkhĂşri wind farm in Chile resumed in Q2. This marks a significant step forward in our commitment to the Andes platform post the successful conclusion of its restructuring last year.

Expanding our footprint in Australia, we are excited to announce that we have been awarded a 2.5-gigawatt offshore wind feasibility license in Gippsland as well as a 500-megawatt onshore wind investigative permit in New South Wales. These awards highlight our strategic expansion and the significant potential for renewable energy development at scale in Australia.

Turning to South Africa, we expect to reach financial close shortly for a 50-megawatt solar farm, which has multiple private power purchase agreements with shorter terms and more flexible conditions called renewable energy supply agreements or RESAs. This project is a great example of our expertise and innovation in the South African market. In Sweden, our Mareld offshore wind farm in partnership with Hexicon has received a recommendation for government approval. I will discuss this project and the 2 recent wins in Australia in the coming slides.

Lastly, the organizational review and related cost base reduction targets that we announced last year are on track, with these efforts beginning to generate positive outcomes, boosting our operational efficiency and paving the way for sustained growth. The achievements by our team at Mainstream over the past quarter highlight our commitment to advancing value-creating projects across our portfolio, and we are optimistic about the enduring potential of renewable energy as well as Mainstream's pivotal role in this evolution.

On the operational side in Chile, our Andes portfolio continued to maintain a positive commercial margin in Q2. For the quarter, we delivered an EUR 8 million commercial margin with an additional EUR 20 million relating to the Tariff Stabilization Law that I will expand upon in the next slide.

The quarter did, however, face challenges. The positive impacts of the lower internodal price differences were reduced, to some extent, by the decrease in transmission capacity as a result of the prolonged maintenance of important lines as well as lower wind resources. For the Alena wind farm, where we experienced an incident with a turbine tower last year, we continue to expect a replacement turbine to be in service in H2.

From a construction perspective, positive progress is being made with our CkhĂşri wind farm in Northern Chile where construction resumed on the substation during the quarter. Further works are planned for the second half of this year, pending approval from Chile's National Monuments Commission to allow for construction to recommence at the wind farm site itself. We are maintaining our commercial operation date target for 2025, reflecting our commitment to advancing this important project. And as a reminder, having successfully terminated its DISCO PPA in 2023, this project provides -- this provides the project with interesting PPA optionality going forward.

On the regulatory front, the publication of the Tariff Stabilization Law has been a positive development, allowing released payments corresponding to a delay in the application of the indexation factors to the PPA price to Mainstream since July 2022. Before moving to the next slide, where I will expand on this further, I want to also note that Chile's Energy Transition Bill continues to face challenges. Most recently, the tariff income proponent of this bill was rejected recently, and the Energy Minister will now need to return with a new proposal.

The recently implemented Tariff Stabilization Law is a significant development for Mainstream and other independent power producers in Chile. This law ensures that we can now receive payments to cover delays in the indexation adjustments to our power purchase agreements, which are referenced to U.S. consumer price index and exchange rate differentials. Importantly, the law has set the publication dates for the next 3 average node price decrees with the first decree allowing a reassessment of amounts owed to Mainstream for the period from July 2022 to October 2023. Further decrees are expected in Q4 of this year for the period post October 2023.

And as a result of the Tariff Stabilization Law, Mainstream recognized EUR 20 million in Q2 from reassessments in the P&L; while the cash impact, including accrued amounts, is expected to be approximately an inflow of EUR 37 million. As the collection of these receivables will not commence until 2028, Mainstream is awaiting confirmation that the Inter-American Development Bank, the IADB, is putting a proposed finance facility in place, which would allow us to avail of the cash inflow to the portfolio by the coming year-end at face value.

As we discussed last quarter, Mainstream is pursuing both an onshore and offshore strategy in Australia given the government's strong support for renewables as well as the country's wealth of wind and solar resources. I'm pleased to see our Australian portfolio further boosted in Q2 with the award of a feasibility license to our Gippsland Skies consortium comprising of Mainstream Renewable Power, Reventus Power, AGL Energy and DIRECT infrastructure.

Gippsland Skies is a 2.5-gigawatt bottom fixed offshore project off the coast of Victoria. The feasibility license was awarded following a highly competitive merit-based selection process, and it is expected to be one of Australia's first offshore wind projects to reach commercial operation. The first phase of the project is expected to be operational in 2032, contributing significantly to the Victorian Government's offshore wind targets of at least 2 gigawatts by 2032 and 4 gigawatts by 2035.

As a pioneer in the global offshore wind industry and with our track record in developing the world's largest offshore wind projects in operation today, we're excited to add offshore wind to our pipeline in this very promising market for renewable energy development.

And building on our growing presence in Australia, I'm also pleased to announce another significant development in our portfolio with the 500-megawatt Sunny Corner onshore wind farm. This is an exciting project we are developing in partnership with Someva Renewables, an Australian-based renewable energy developer. Following a 15-month competitive tender and selection process, which began after amendments which were made to the Forestry Act 2012, we were awarded an investigative permit by the Forestry Corporation of New South Wales in May of this year.

This project is one of the first wind farms to be located within in New South Wales state plantation forest, and we applaud the Forestry Corporation's vision in diversifying land use to support the renewable energy transition. Next steps for Sunny Corner include the installation of the met masts to gather essential wind data. And concurrently, we will engage in consultations with local communities, a crucial element to understanding the local stakeholders and codesigning the community benefits program.

Construction of the Sunny Corner wind farm is expected to commence by 2029 with planned operation by 2031. And we're delighted to be part of this pioneering project and look forward to contributing significantly to New South Wales' renewable energy goals.

Moving on then to another positive update, this time in Sweden, where I will discuss our developments in the country, some background on our joint venture with Hexicon and then the latest on our priority project within the portfolio, the Mareld floating offshore wind farm. Sweden presents a tremendous opportunity for offshore wind power development, thanks to its approximately 3,200 kilometers of coastline and the government's ambitious targets to double energy production and achieve 100% fossil-free electricity by 2040. This developer-led market is perfectly aligned with our strategic goals.

And in Sweden, Freja Offshore, our 50-50 joint venture with Hexicon, is actively developing 3 major projects with a combined gross capacity of 7 gigawatts. Within this portfolio, our priority project, the Mareld floating offshore wind farm, has a capacity of 2.5 gigawatts. Recently, the County Administrative Board proposed that the Swedish government approve our application for Mareld. This positive recommendation is a crucial step forward.

Situated about 40 kilometers west of Lysekil, Mareld is expected to contribute significantly to the region's power needs, which are projected to double by 2030 due to industrial electrification. The government is now set to make its final decision on Mareld by the first half of 2025. Following approval, our target for financial close will be expected to be for 2028 with the first electricity then expected to be produced by 2032.

In addition to Mareld, we have submitted permit applications for 2 further projects: Dyning, a 2.5-gigawatt floating offshore wind farm on Sweden's east coast; and Cirrus, a 2-gigawatt fixed bottom offshore wind farm in southern Sweden. These projects further underscore our commitment to harnessing Sweden's vast offshore wind potential.

And to conclude, in the short to medium term, Mainstream remains focused on our portfolio of priority projects which offer the greatest near-term value-creation potential. This is evidenced by the clear progress during the quarter for our projects across Chile, South Africa, Sweden and Australia. These projects not just highlight our commitment to renewable energy transformation, but also underscore our ability to navigate and to succeed in diverse and challenging market conditions.

As we move forward, we continue to see strong opportunities for capital recycling and consistent value creation. Our strategic initiatives, robust project pipeline and strong partnerships will deliver our mission to deliver sustainable and innovative energy solutions globally.

And with that, I hand to Kristoffer.

K
Kristoffer Dahlberg
executive

Thank you, Mary.

Starting with some highlights from Aker Horizons Asset Development. As Kristian mentioned, the Rjukan project has been upscaled to 40-megawatt of gaseous hydrogen capacity, leveraging the existing grid capacity allocation. For Narvik Green Ammonia, we see strong market interest to execute the project, both from offtakers and the supply chain. During the quarter, we received responses to the ITT for FEED and EPC and, as previously communicated, completed the pre-FEED study.

We continue to see strong interest for our industrial sites in the Narvik region from energy-intensive growth industries, including data centers. And during the quarter, we signed a cooperation agreement with a data center developer to explore opportunities for powered shell development in Northern Norway. Also, the Straumsmo site was zoned for industrial purposes. The main priority for asset development going forward continues to be on the Norwegian project in the portfolio, which is where we see the most value creation opportunities in the short run.

Starting with Narvik with our large-scale green ammonia project in Northern Norway. The team is currently evaluating the bids received for the FEED and EPC ahead of selecting suppliers. Offtake discussions continue to mature as we engage with large industrial offtakers that are looking to secure green ammonia supply to Continental Europe. We are currently working towards signing term sheets with key offtake partners prior to moving into the next phase of the project. As communicated, the pre-FEED study was completed during the second quarter, giving further certainty on CapEx and execution strategy as we work to optimize the concept ahead of the DG2 milestone.

The Rjukan project serves as a blueprint for our larger portfolio. And during the quarter, we upscaled the plant to a 40-megawatt project. The project has been allocated 50 megawatts of grid capacity from the regional TSO, Lede's new Vestfjorddalen transformer station. The project has secured a long-term PPA at favorable conditions and would utilize existing infrastructure and industrial land at the Rjukan Næringspark and the new transformer station to produce about 15 tonnes of gaseous hydrogen per day, delivering green hydrogen to the Norwegian market as well as the emerging Scandinavian and Northwest European green hydrogen market.

Last year, the project received funding from Innovation Norway, and we also plan to take part in the upcoming second round of Maritime Hydrogen Clusters from Enova. We are targeting to complete the joint venture agreement with a leading industrial gas player during the third quarter this year and initiate the FEED phase during the second half of this year.

Powered Land is a joint venture with Nordkraft to develop industrial sites in NO4 in Northern Norway. Our industrial sites in the region are strategically located close to the 420-kilowatt central grid and are at various stages of zoning for power-intensive industries. During the quarter, we saw significant progress in our discussions with data center players in particular.

We signed a cooperation agreement with a data center developer and EPC company to explore the powered shell concept in Northern Norway. The powered shell concept is a facility which has had the exterior construction completed and has power and connectivity in place, but where the data center customer finishes the interior. We look forward to keeping you updated on the progress on monetizing our attractive portfolio of plots.

This marks the end of the update on Asset Development, and I will now move on to Aker Horizons' financials. This quarter, we are developing our reporting format to tailor it to our portfolio of mostly unlisted assets. We start today with an overview of the financial performance of our portfolio companies in the second quarter.

Overall, we have a significant positive effect on the financials from the SLB transaction and ACC, which booked a gain of NOK 4.9 billion, or NOK 2.1 billion net to Aker Horizons; in all respects, an important transaction for Aker Horizons, underscored by the accounts for the quarter.

On Mainstream, as Mary described, the underlying positive commercial margin continued in the second quarter. And on top of that, EUR 20 million in additional revenue was recognized following the publication of the first Tariff Stabilization Law decree 5th of July. So in the quarter, a positive EBITDA of NOK 55 million was recognized. The cost base reductions are on track and also support the improvement in EBITDA. However, after depreciation and financial costs, MRP still reports a loss of NOK 393 million, whereof NOK 201 million is Aker Horizons' share.

For AAD, the negative NOK 36 million EBITDA reflects continuing maturation of the project and establishing partnerships. The losses are down from previous quarters, reflecting a focusing of the business and cost cutting. In total, the consolidated accounts show a net income of close to NOK 4.4 billion, whereof Aker Horizons' share is just shy of NOK 1.8 billion.

This quarter, we are, as mentioned, developing our reporting format and tailoring it to our portfolio of mostly unlisted assets. From having 4 listed holdings in 2021, we now only have ACC, and 80% of this business was recently divested to SLB for NOK 4.5 billion in cash. The 20% shareholding in the SLB joint venture is unlisted. Also for the remaining assets, including Mainstream, AAD and SuperNode, those are unlisted.

Net capital employed reflects our initial investment in the portfolio company adjusted for any profit/loss since then, additional investments and FX revaluations. Over time, we expect to get a healthy return on our capital employed. As of second quarter, we had NOK 2.4 billion employed in ACC, NOK 3.8 billion in MRP, NOK 517 million in AAD, NOK 174 million in SuperNode and NOK 203 million in other assets.

Total net capital employed of NOK 7.1 billion, whereof close to NOK 3.4 billion is funded by debt, net of cash, and NOK 3.7 billion by equity. During the quarter, ACC's capital employed increased by NOK 2.1 billion as a significant capital gain was recorded on the back of the SLB transaction. MRP's capital employed decreased by NOK 258 million, reflecting Aker Horizons share of the quarterly loss of NOK 201 million, driven by DevEx overhead and financing costs to mature the portfolio in addition to our movement in FX.

For AAD, the net decrease of NOK 12 million was driven by Aker Horizons' investment of NOK 27 million, countered by a NOK 38 million loss. For SuperNode, net capital employed increased by NOK 7 million, reflecting a NOK 23 million investment by Aker Horizons, countered by the quarterly loss.

Other of positive NOK 58 million reflects net earnings in Aker Horizons parent and holdings, driven by operating costs, countered by increase in financial assets. Net capital employed was, as mentioned, NOK 7.1 billion in the quarter.

Our external financing and commitments are shown here, including the maturities with PIK interest. The shareholder loan and the convertible have PIK interest, while the green bond has cash interest payments. The EUR 500 million RCF remains undrawn and available to us until May 2025. We also have an option for a further 1-year extension.

This brings us to available liquidity. The EUR 500 million RCF was undrawn at quarter end, as mentioned. With a cash position of close to NOK 3.1 billion and the RCF undrawn, that sums up to a total available liquidity of NOK 8.8 billion. This is down NOK 256 million since Q1, driven mostly by a change in euro-NOK where NOK has strengthened from around 11.7 at the end of Q1 to 11.4 at the end of Q2. This reduced liquidity of NOK 143 million as the RCF is denominated in euros. The remaining reduction stems from underlying cash use.

The net interest-bearing debt position was up from NOK 3.2 billion at Q1 '24 to just shy of NOK 3.4 billion at the end of Q2, reflecting operating costs, interest paid and also accrued and investments in our green projects and companies.

Thank you for your attention, and then we move to the Q&A section.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you, Kristoffer. And we're now opening up for the Q&A session.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

We have received a few questions regarding ACC, which I will pass on to you, Kristian. How does ACC plan to use the proceeds from the SLB ACC transaction?

K
Kristian Rokke
executive

Sure. As it relates to the use of proceeds following the SLB transaction, the Board of Directors of ACC ASA is in the process of defining the future strategy and structure of the company, including framework for the use of proceeds. Now these are important topics and naturally will take some time, and the Board of Directors of ACC will revert to the market in due course.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you, Kristian. Moving on to our next question, which pertains to Mainstream in Vietnam. The Soc Trang wind park in Vietnam was once expected to be the next wind park from Mainstream. Do you have a plan for FID and commercial operation date for Soc Trang? Mary?

M
Mary Quaney
executive

Yes. With regards to the Vietnamese market and our Soc Trang project, the Soc Trang project is one of the most advanced offshore wind projects in development in the market in Vietnam. And the first phase of our Soc Trang project is in late-stage development and ready for commercialization.

Vietnam as a market has very strong potential for offshore wind and has indicated ambitious net-zero targets, including targets for offshore wind capacity. However, the regulatory framework, which is required to establish route to market for this next phase of offshore wind, has been very slow to be established. And so with the results that we've dialed down our spend levels significantly while the market awaits that clarity. And therefore, timing of FID will follow when that regulatory framework is determined, the timing of which currently is uncertain.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you, Mary. The next question will also be for Mainstream. It pertains to how has construction in South Africa and Chile progressed in the first half of the year? And what are the key milestones you're expecting for the second half of 2024? Mary?

M
Mary Quaney
executive

Thank you. Yes. So in South Africa, we have a 97.5-megawatt solar project in construction, and that construction program is well underway. It commenced towards the end of last year. The solar site preparation is now completed. About 30% of the piles have been installed, pre-drilling has been fully completed, so all proceeding in accordance with our delivery schedule. The project is on track for COD time line in first half of 2025.

Then turning to Chile, where key focus is our CkhĂşri project, which is 109 megawatts wind farm on which construction has recommenced. The substation work is the current focus to allow an interconnection early 2025. Works on the overhead line and on the CkhĂşri main site substation are to start in Q3 of this year. So currently, again, our COD target time line is on track, which we plan to deliver in 2025.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you. Next question is on data centers. How far along are you in discussions with data center players and for which sites? And by when do you expect to announce a transaction? Kristian, I'm going to direct this one to you.

K
Kristian Rokke
executive

Yes. So we made good progress. And as mentioned today in the presentation, we've signed a cooperation agreement with a data center EPC company to explore opportunities for large-scale data center build-outs in Northern Norway. It's still early days, but I would say we see significant interest in our sites in the Narvik area. They're all in a price zone with low power prices, it's available grid and a surplus of green baseload power, all of which is attractive for power-intensive industries, including data centers.

In terms of timing, these are very large capital investment projects on the scale we're talking about, so will naturally take some time. But to be as specific as possible, I would say, over the next 12 months, we expect significant developments in the transaction.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you. Back to Mainstream, we have a few questions here for you, Mary. Mainstream reported EBITDA of EUR 5 million in Q2 versus negative EUR 8 million in Q1. Given the one-off EUR 20 million in revenues that we reported for Q2, how should we understand the underlying cost development performance in Q2 versus Q1?

And I'm going to go straight on to the next question also, which is regarding the -- back to the EUR 20 million, the income and cash from the Tariff Stabilization Law in Chile. Understood correctly that the cash inflow is capped at a maximum of EUR 37 million by year-end 2024. Based on what you have in operations so far, can this amount increase? And lastly, on Mainstream, can you elaborate on the key prioritizations going forward? Mary?

M
Mary Quaney
executive

So starting with Q2 versus Q1, generally, the underlying performance of Q2 is stable relevant to Q1. Most importantly, the target that we had indicated to reduce our cost base by over 30% to deliver annual savings of more than EUR 45 million, that is very much on track, and we are tracking in line within in Q2 and also in Q1 of this year.

In terms of the question with regards to the incoming cash from the Tariff Stabilization Law, yes, the understanding is correct that the cash inflow is expected to be a maximum of EUR 37 million by year-end, and we do not expect that amount to increase.

And then with regard to the key prioritizations going forward, so key targets, as I've referred to already, completing construction programs of construction that is currently underway, particularly in South Africa and in Chile; continuing to advance late-stage pipeline to commercialization where can deliver near-term value creation, again, a particular focus on South Africa, but also the Philippines and some other markets; and continuing to deliver those cost reductions as indicators, which are very well on target.

M
Marianne Stigset
executive

Thank you, Mary. That concludes our Q&A session for today. We thank you all for tuning in. Wish you a good summer, and welcome you back for our Q3 presentation on November 1. Thank you.

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