Tokmanni Group Oyj

OMXH:TOKMAN

Earnings Call Analysis

Earnings Call Transcript 2024-Q1

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Good morning, and thank you for joining Tokmanni Group's First Quarter 2024 Result Presentation. My name is Mika Rautiainen. And here in the beginning, I will be presenting the key points for the quarter. And afterwards, Tokmanni Group's CFO, Mr. Tapio Arimo will come and give a little bit deeper analysis on the figures for the quarter. Afterwards, it's time for questions. So let's get started.

It was a strong growth for Tokmanni Group during the first quarter. And obviously, the growth came from Sweden and Denmark by Dollarstore and Big Dollar. And this is, of course, due to the Tokmanni Group's acquisition of Dollarstore last summer. So Dollarstore -- Dollarstore segment was representing 27% of the total revenues of Tokmanni Group during the first quarter. And in the end of first quarter, the total amount of stores for Tokmanni Group that was 372 stores altogether. A little bit more about the key points.

First of all, the first quarter is always the weakest for both Tokmanni and Dollarstore in terms of sales and profitability. So typically, the revenues level, the sales level is clearly lower compared with other quarters. And the profitability is also on minus. This is very typical for both companies. So actually, it's as expected from our point of view. The timing of Easter for the first quarter had a positive effect on sales. Like-for-like revenue for the group was 1.7%. Both segments performed reasonably well in the current market situation, obviously, a little bit more about the segment markets in a few minutes but I will come back to that. The gross margins of both segments were at satisfactory level, altogether, 34% and as already mentioned, the group result was on minus and it was specifically impacted by higher real estate and personnel costs. The salary increases compared with previous year in Finland was 4%. The real estate cost, higher real estate cost came actually from the higher property taxes.

And for both companies, it was also higher costs, for example, snow cleaning operations during the whole winter. About the group's figures. So the revenue grew by 42.2%. And it was EUR 339.2 million during the first quarter. And as already mentioned, like-for-like revenue increased by 1.7%. Comparable gross profit was EUR 115.4 million compared with previous year's EUR 75.5 million. Gross margin percentage was 34% during the first quarter. And comparable EBIT amounted to minus EUR 5.1 million, representing minus 1.5% of revenue. Cash flow from operating activities amounted to minus EUR 40 million and earnings per share diluted was minus EUR 0.20 and let's check the segment a little bit more carefully.

So in Finland, the Tokmanni segment in the first quarter, the weak purchasing power and political strikes affected consumer attitude and behavior actually quite a lot. The Finnish consumers, Tokmanni's customers in Finland we're clearly careful with spending -- consumers we're very price sensitive, all Tokmanni campaigns and price reductions were very popular during the first quarter. And the segment revenue increased by 4.2% and like-for-like by 1.7%. Groceries was clearly a higher growth compared with nonfood. Comparable gross margin for Tokmanni segment was clearly better compared with previous year, 32.8%. And EUR 81.3 million compared with previous year's EUR 75.5 million. Comparable operating expenses higher compared with previous year's 25.6% of revenue and compared with EUR 24.7 million.

And here is especially the real estate the maintenance costs, the taxes and then the salary increases. So the comparable EBIT for Tokmanni segment was minus 0.7% compared with previous year's 0.8 -- minus 0.8%. So slightly smaller minus compared with previous year. Inventories are on a normal level, EUR 271.6 million compared with the previous year's more than EUR 300 million inventory. And then about the Dollarstores segment. Also in Sweden, the Dollarstores customers were suffering from the weak market, less buying power, less money in the customer's pocket. And that's why and also there was like increasing price competition, which affected the result for Dollarstore segment. The revenue increased by 4.1% and like-for-like by 1.8% in local currencies. And with Dollarstore, exactly the same thing, the growth was clearly stronger with groceries compared with nonfood.

The comparable EBIT for Dollarstore segment was minus EUR 2.8 million, representing minus 3% of revenues. Value of inventories was EUR 99.1 million, also in a normal level. And on new Dollarstore was also opened during the first quarter. That was in Uddevalla. About the Tokmanni and Dollarstore integration, First of all, obviously, it's like the main focus for the whole group at the moment. And I'm happy to say that integration is progressing very well. At the moment, the main focus is on integrating sourcing and buying activities at the group level. We've already made joint actions with brands, with the A brands suppliers and agreements. We've started the Far East sourcing joint sourcing and buying in Far East as well as with private labels. We've negotiated common sea freight agreements together with Tokmanni and Dollarstore with very good results. And there the first Tokmanni private labels are already sold in Sweden and in Denmark.

Denmark was actually the first one to start with, for example, the Tokmanni private label [ PARCO ] garden furniture already much earlier than we started the season in Sweden and in Finland. We've also realized benefits from the supportive functions with nowadays, we have joint financial partners, joint HR systems and practices. We've made some agreements for marketing and also for store furniture. All of these resulting with the benefits, which actually the achieved synergies are altogether, EUR 6.7 million on an annual basis at the end of March. So with our plan for the synergy savings, the original plan for EUR 15 million synergy savings by the end of 2025, we are proceeding very well. And of course, it looks also very promising.

And as mentioned already several times during the previous result presentations. The cooperation, the joint actions together with the Danes, with the Swiss and with Fins, go actually very, very nicely. So we're very happy with this acquisition of Dollarstore. And then it's time for the key figures and a little bit deeper analysis and its Tapio, who will be giving the analysis. Tapio, please go ahead.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Thank you, Mika, and good morning to all on my behalf as well. So first, let's look at the revenue figures a little bit deeper. So as Mika mentioned, we had obviously a very high revenue growth driven by Dollarstore. So total revenue growth of 42.4%. And what's very satisfying in this challenging market is that we also achieved like-for-like revenue growth during the first quarter of 1.7%. And the Easter had a little bit of a positive impact on that as well as it was in March this year compared to April last year. And looking at the segments, Tokmanni segments revenue grew by 4.2%. And it was partly driven by a very nice increase in online sales of over 20%. Obviously, still a small part of total revenue at 1.4%. And our B2B sales also increased slightly from the year before and accounted for a total of 3.4% of Tokmanni segments revenue. And Dollarstores revenue grew by 4.1% as measured in local currencies.

Then if we look at our sales mix a little bit. First, looking at the Tokmanni segment, our revenue share in the groceries increased slightly from a year ago even though a year ago, we had quite good sales of our clothing due to the inventory clear out that we had in the first quarter last year, but still the grocery business grew faster than the non-grocery business and represented -- the grocery business represented a total of 55.9% of Tokmanni segment's Q1 sales. And Dollarstore has a little bit higher sales in the grocery side represented in quarter 1, 59.5% of total Dollarstore sales.

Moving on to our comparable gross profit. So obviously, we achieved the highest gross profit in our history during the first quarter, again, driven by the Dollarstore. Also, our gross profit percentage was the highest at 34.0%, and that's also driven by the Dollarstore due to the higher gross profit. And when you look at the segments for Tokmanni, the comparable gross margin in the first quarter was 32.8%, which is a clear increase from the previous year of 31.7% and last year's gross profit percent was impacted by the before mentioned discount of our clothing sales line in the first quarter and Dollarstores comparable gross margin was 37.4%, which is quite good for the first quarter.

Looking at our product labels in the Tokmanni segment, the share of product labels managed by Tokmanni decreased slightly from a year ago. And this, again, shows the impact of the clothing line, high sales last year, which is mostly our own labels. And the direct import also declined slightly from a year ago, representing a total of 23.9% of sales. Then looking at our operating expenses. So in the first quarter, Tokmanni Group's comparable operating expenses were 26.4% of revenue. That's a 1.5% increase as a percentage. And again, that was driven mainly by the Dollarstore acquisition. So Dollarstore has a clearly higher percent of operating expenses as a percent of revenue. But also, as Mika mentioned, the Tokmanni OpEx were impacted in the first quarter compared to last year by the salary increases also a little bit extra hours compared to previous year due to the Easter. And then the very snowy winter that impacted our snow clearing costs, which were quite high this year compared to last year.

Personnel expenses for the group were 15.7% of revenue compared to last year of 14.1% and when you look at the total operating expenses as a percent of sales, you can see that Tokmanni figure at 25.6% and the Dollarstore at 27.9% in the first quarter of 2024. Then looking at our comparable EBIT. So in the first quarter, the group's comparable EBIT was negative EUR 5.1 million as compared to negative EUR 2.2 million a year ago. And the decline in the comparable EBIT was really driven by the increase in operating expenses. Tokmanni segments, comparable EBIT actually improved slightly from a year ago. So it was minus EUR 1.7 million this year compared to minus EUR 1.9 million last year. And Dollarstores comparable EBIT in the first quarter was a negative EUR 2.8 million. And the group functions and eliminations amounted to EUR 0.6 million this year.

And as Mika said, both Dollarstore and Tokmanni segments, typically in the first quarter, have the lowest net sales and as a result, the lowest, lowest profitability as well. And typically, both companies are in the red during the first quarter. Looking at our inventory situation, so our total inventory value was EUR 370.8 million at the end of March. And the Tokmanni segment's inventory actually declined EUR 29 million from a year ago. And as you remember, we had some inventory issues at Tokmanni segment for the -- during last year, especially in the beginning parts and also the year before. So we are now back at healthy inventory levels at Tokmanni and also at Dollarstore the inventory levels are normal for the season and Dollarstore inventory levels at the end of March were EUR 99.1 million.

And looking a little bit our financing and debt situation. So at the end of March, total interest-bearing debt was EUR 826.3 million have the increase from a year ago, and that's driven by the Dollarstore acquisition, which, as you remember, was fully financed by loans and obviously also a lot of IFRS 16 lease liabilities came in with the Dollarstore acquisition. And typically, the Dollarstore leases are a little bit longer than Tokmanni's on average. So the relative size of the IFRS 16 leases is somewhat higher at Dollarstore than Tokmanni. And if you exclude the IFRS 16 loans, we had total bank or financial institution debt of EUR 220 million at the end of quarter 1 compared to EUR 100 million at the end of quarter 1 last year. And that's a difference of EUR 120 million, which is clearly less than the roughly EUR 175 million that we took on additional debt in the acquisition of Dollarstore.

So we have been managing debt quite prudently since the acquisition and have been able to reduce the relative debt. And when you look at our net debt to comparable EBITDA ratios, including the lease liabilities, the ratio is 3.9 at the end of quarter 1. And then without the lease liabilities, the ratio is 2.3. And obviously, there's some increase there compared to historical figures, but actually not that much that you could expect. So also those ratios, we are very happy with those ratios at the moment. And then looking at our group's cash flow from operating activities. So total operating cash flow in Q1 for the group was minus EUR 40 million, and that's somewhat higher than last year's minus 12.9, but again, the minus 12.9 was very good cash flow last year due to the reduction in inventory that we managed last year.

So this year, the inventory increased approximately EUR 30 million in quarter 1, which is typical or normal seasonality and that really drove the operating cash flow. And this is let's say, a fairly normal cash flow in the first quarter. And then looking at our CapEx. Also, the -- I would say the CapEx level is fairly normal for us. So a total of EUR 5.9 million during the first quarter and no extra specific investments. It's really normal, both maintenance and expansion, development of the store network and digital services during the first quarter. So nothing extraordinary there this time. So then I might Mika back to join me and talk a little bit about the group's outlook.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Thank you, Tapio. But please stay nearby because we're going to start the questions soon. But a couple of words about the outlook for Tokmanni Group for 2024. First of all, it's -- in Finland, it was pretty turbulent in the first quarter due to the political strikes and the discussion regarding the government cuts and tax increases, which are necessary, but obviously, a lot of discussion, a lot of pressure for consumers in Finland. And in Sweden, also, as already mentioned, the weak buying power for Dollarstore customers were affecting the first quarter. And of course, the start of the spring season has been very slow in the Nordics. So we have quite a lot to catch up. But well, it looks good. In Sweden, it looks good in a way that the customer sentiment is getting much better due to the fact that the inflation rate is actually on a very low level already in Sweden.

And the decision on decreasing the interest rate is, of course, very positive for everybody in Sweden. And in Finland, I think that all the political discussions and the pressures are a little bit aside at the moment. And obviously, the good weather conditions are giving some light with also with the business. And we have good expectations on this one. for Tokmanni Group and the focus for 2024, it's obviously with integration, Tokmanni Dollarstore segment. The -- for example, the buying departments at the moment are working extremely hard to go through all the private labels, all the products, all the agreements and making joint decisions, joint buying decisions. And obviously, this is very good and very beneficial for the whole group. And otherwise, as well, we're all the time thinking like how can we act as a Nordic variety discount retailer and what would be the most beneficial way to do this.

So a lot of focus on integrating the businesses, a lot of focus with synergy savings at the moment. And at the same time, there will be also new store openings in Finland, I think that we have 4 new store openings still this year in Sweden and in Denmark, approximately 7 new store openings, so more than 10 store opening still this year. So obviously, we're very optimistic regarding the 2024 in total. And therefore, the guidance for 2024 remains the same. Tokmanni Group expects its revenue to be EUR 1.660 billion to EUR 1.760 billion, and comparable EBIT is expected to be EUR 110 million to EUR 130 million. So that's it, an operator. Now it's time for questions, please.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. We'll now take our first question from Maria Wikstrom of SEB.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

This is Maria Wikstrom from SEB. I have a few questions, if -- a few questions, if I take them one by one. So starting with the operating cash flow of minus EUR 40 million if you could break it up a bit on the working capital change and the other element in the , I mean, quite negative operating cash flow, please?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Yes. So obviously, minus EUR 5 million from the EBIT, so that leaves minus EUR 35 million for the rest. So obviously, that's mostly working capital. And I think the inventory was roughly EUR 30 million. So than the, let's say, accounts payable and other receive -- other payables and other receivables account for the rest. So roughly, that's the split. And again, the inventory -- the inventory increase in quarter 1 is normal seasonality.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Yes. Maybe if I may add to this, obviously, Dollarstore has also -- Dollarstore was using quite a lot of middlemen. And now Dollarstore has also like started direct imports. And obviously, it means that they order things to the warehouse and that, of course, has an effect on the cash flow as well.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Okay. Perfect. I'll take it from there. And then I wanted to ask about the Dollarstore segment has -- are you concerned about -- I think this is the second quarter in a row when we have seen the traffic decline from previous year. So how do you take yourself, I mean, this decline in the traffic?

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

In Dollarstore, yes. Well, first of all, no, we're not concerned. It was very, very difficult times during the first quarter for Dollarstore -- Dollarstore's customers. And I think that the Dollarstore team has been working very hard for improving the traffic in the stores for the spring, summer and the rest of the year. For example, the Dollarstore has made a lot of improvements and changes with marketing and things like this to get back on plus level regarding the traffic. So we're not really that concerned. And obviously, the first quarter is a little bit difficult for, actually for both segments.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Okay. And then I think I mean you spoke quite conservatively in the beginning of the Q2 and mentioned a few things impacting the early part of the quarter. Shall we read this that the like-for-like trend has been negative in the first half of the Q2 quarter.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Well, yes, first of all, as we all know, in Finland and in Sweden, it's been a slow start for the spring season. But basically, if I look at back, especially with Tokmanni, it's for several years behind it. Every year, it varies a bit when the spring season starts. But when it starts, it usually brings actually quite a lot of traffic, quite a lot of sales. Obviously, it's better if it's as early as possible, but we're kind of used to the fact that sometimes it can be quite late. I think it was only 2 years ago when the actual spring season started I think, in the beginning of June in Finland. So this is just how the weather conditions are, and I think that we're able to manage with that. But yes, of course, it was a slow start. And it's -- I mean, it's not -- of course, it's not only the weather conditions.

To be honest, the Red Sea happenings and the political strikes, obviously, they caused some issues regarding the shelf availability, with seasoned product availabilities and there, we have some serious problems. So in a way, I don't know whether I should be saying this, but it was actually pretty good that the spring season didn't start that early because we were not ready due to the delays of Red Sea happenings and the political strikes. So now we are looking at the start of the season with very positive eyes.

[Operator]

We'll now move on to our next question from Svante Krokfors of Nordea.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

Svante Krokfors from Nordea. First question regarding -- first question regarding Dollarstore. Could you open up a bit around the seasonality there and also how -- even though you don't disclose the numbers in your own words, how profitability development developed year-on-year for Dollarstore?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Yes. So typically, let's say, the sales variability between the quarters is a bit less for Dollarstore than in Tokmanni. But given Dollarstore's lower EBIT margin over the year and then the higher fixed cost base relative to sales compared to Tokmanni segment, EBIT percentage variability is actually -- could be a slightly higher even than a Tokmanni. So that's the sort of a, let's say, common sort of or normal typical status. And I think we've said before, we don't have the historical IFRS figures for Dollarstore. So hard to compare the years to the past and also due to their different accounting year-end, which was at the end of January, it's hard to compare the historical numbers. But from what we've analyzed, our understanding is that it's fairly typical this type of loss that we saw in quarter 1. So it probably is sort of a fairly typical quarter for Dollarstore in terms of profitability if that helps. And again, we don't have the exact figure. So difficult to say exactly.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

And you touched already on availability issues. Is it only seasonal products? And in what shape is it -- are there still availability issues? Or are you set up now for?

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Well, for I think today, we're still one day behind the schedule, the actual schedule. But we're working hard during the coming weekend, for example. So by Monday, we'll be all good when it comes to the availability. But it actually -- it took quite some time to get back on the normal level with shelf availability due to the strikes and issues regarding the spring season, summer season products.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

That's helpful. And a question regarding the political strikes. Did you incur any additional costs from that in Q1 and partly in Q2?

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Yes. Yes, we did, obviously, obviously, we tried to get some of the containers to Finland through other routes, and that had an additional cost as well as going around Africa Obviously, that caused us additional costs, and they will be -- I mean, partly for first quarter, but mainly for the second quarter. And obviously, it's -- Tapio, correct me if I'm wrong, but mainly it affects a little bit the gross margin.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Yes.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

Okay. And regarding your balance sheet, net debt-to-EBITDA 3.9 or 2.3, excluding the lease liabilities. Can you comment anything on covenants in your loan agreements?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Yes. So we are not close to our covenants. So there's -- let's say, no, we have no worries about those at the moment.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

And there are no equity ratio relating covenants?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

No.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

Okay. And last question regarding your guidance, specifically for EBIT. Do you want to elaborate a bit on what needs to happen for the high and low end of the range?

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Do you want to elaborate?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

So I think -- no, I mean, normal situation, we end up somewhere in between those. Then if things become abnormal positive or negative, then obviously, there is some kind of risk of falling outside those. But I would say there's a thousand things that impact, of course, the results. So...

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

That's a good elaboration. Thank you.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Very hard to comment more specifically. There's -- I don't think there's any single event or thing that needs to happen for us to reach those. It's hard work. Like Mika said, we're focusing very much on the synergies and working together with Dollarstore and getting our Tokmanni private labels into Dollarstore later on in the year, of course, they don't come all at the same time. They come -- we have to do -- everyone is separate exercise in a way.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

I think I said myself probably after the last year third quarter. In the third quarter result presentation that 2024, year 2024 looks good, and we're able to, for example, with our supply chain, we're able to normalize it and be more efficient. And it wasn't that many weeks after I had said this and the -- suddenly, our containers started to go around Africa, suddenly, there was 4-week political strike causing problems for us. So if business goes as usual, we're quite okay if there are external happenings, you never know about those things. So nowadays, we're pretty careful with elaborating these things.

[Svante Krokfors, analyst]

It was a good collaboration on answering the question. Perhaps the last question. I mean you have a lot of integration work still to be done and have done a lot, but has this affected operations in a negative way, I mean, if it takes away the focus from the daily business.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

I have to say that I haven't seen not one negative issue. Obviously, it's a lot about the communication and talking to each other and things like this. Still different businesses. Finland, Sweden are very similar, but at the same time, a little bit different when it comes to the business and -- but -- and that's something that we all need to take into consideration. But I think that I haven't really faced any issue -- a negative issue with the corporation. It's actually surprisingly good, and I'm extremely happy about the joint operation and the cooperation with the Dollarstore team.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. We'll now move on to our next question from Calle Loikkanen of Danske Bank.

[Calle Loikkanen, analyst]

I' m Calle Loikkanen from Danske Bank. I just wanted to follow up on the comments regarding the strikes and the events in the Red Sea. You mentioned that it affects the gross margin, especially in Q2. Can you be a bit more specific on the impact in terms of numbers, perhaps?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Well, Difficult to say how long we have to go around. One thing, obviously. So of course, we have a number of containers already have come through that longer route then.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Yes. Well, basically, almost everything regarding the spring summer season is already in Finland. When it comes to the effect on the gross margin, it obviously depends a little bit on the price competition. And basically, Tokmanni always wants to offer customers the lowest price level. So obviously, that has something to do with what happens with the competition. But I would say that -- or let's put it this way, I could imagine that all other retailers have similar issues when it comes to the same product groups and the price increases, the sea freight or other transportation cost increases. So I'm not sure whether we -- or maybe we're not facing like 2 big challenges with this one. But it's difficult to say because it's all about the competition.

[Calle Loikkanen, analyst]

Okay. That's clear. But the extra cost that you have seen so far, they are not significant in any way?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Well, I would say there are 6 figures some. So what is significant. But obviously, they materialize in the P&L as the products are sold. So if you have a, let's say, extra cost in a container, then the extra cost is divided between the goods in that container. And once those goods are sold, then it goes into the P&L. So it comes over time.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Exactly.

[Calle Loikkanen, analyst]

Okay. That's helpful. Then on the personnel costs and the other OpEx, is the kind of run rate that we see now in Q1 in terms of growth or inflation. Is that something we should expect for the rest of the year? Or was there something special in the first quarter?

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Well, I don't know if you remember in the first quarter last year, we didn't have the salary increase that's yet impacting. Then we had EUR 400 per person impact in the second quarter. And then in the beginning of June, we had the salary increases, which were slightly above 4%. So this year, we will have the salary increases in the first of June as well, but they are clearly less. So we're talking about 2% or a little bit above. So we expect to see the, let's say, the salary inflation clearly lower in the rest of the year. But of course, then it depends on the hours, hours needed as well. And obviously, that sales has some impact on that. So the more we sell, the more hours we have in the stores. But I would say that, let's say, the inflation impact is going to be less in the next quarter.

[Calle Loikkanen, analyst]

Okay. That's very clear. And then lastly, regarding the integration, obviously, it has proceeded very well and very fast. Do you think that the EUR 15 million of synergies that you are targeting could actually be higher or then alternatively come sooner than you had previously expected?

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Well, hopefully yes. But it's very difficult to say how it proceeds.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

We are doing all that we can to synergies.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Even higher.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

We are not going to stop there, hopefully. But of course, that's something that we have promised. So first, we need to get to that mark, and then we can see what's left.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

But obviously, we're also like finding new elements over there. And as -- the more we also like go for same private labels, the more we go on the same product assortment obviously, it's also more with the synergy savings. But it's now -- at this moment, it's way too early to start estimating higher figures. But we are confident with the figures that we've promised. Operator, any more questions?

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions in queue. I will now hand it back to you for closing remarks. Thank you.

[Mika Rautiainen, executive]

Well, thank you very much, and see you next time in August for the second quarter result presentation. Let's all hope for very sunny, warm and commercial spring/summer season. Thank you very much.

[Tapio Arimo, executive]

Thank you.