Sanoma Oyj

OMXH:SANOMA

Earnings Call Analysis

Company Grows amidst Curriculum Reforms

The company's learning business grew robustly with sales nearing EUR 700 million, up from EUR 579 million, attributing to organic growth of 7% and a vital Italian acquisition. This growth is further highlighted by a 10% increase in learning content. The successful implementation of price hikes and curriculum reforms, particularly in Spain and Italy, has strengthened the company's market positioning. Leverage has improved to 2.8%, in line with long-term goals, alongside narrowing revenue forecasts to EUR 138 million to EUR 1.4 billion. The company continues working toward a profitability target of 23% by 2026, with expectations of curriculum-driven peaks in 2023 and 2026.

Solid Overall Growth with a Strong Learning Business

Sanoma's third quarter of 2023 was marked by robust performance, substantially driven by the learning segment of its business. The company realized net sales of EUR 1.1 billion, a climb from EUR 1 billion the previous year. This was largely attributed to two key factors: a 7% organic growth in the learning sector and the full-year consolidation of an Italian acquisition, which Sanoma had finalized at the end of August the prior year. The increase managed to offset a small decline in the Finnish media business segment.

Operational EBIT and Profitability Forecasts

Sanoma reported an operational EBIT of EUR 202 million, excluding Purchase Price Allocation (PPA), which shows an uptick from EUR 192 million a year ago. This gain was mainly fueled by the learning business's powerful growth trajectory. Free cash flow, at EUR 35 million, was slightly down, explained by the cash flow patterns of the Italian subsidiary, which typically realizes cash flow in the fourth quarter. Excluding the Italian operation, however, the company noticed a substantial boost in business cash flow. Thanks to these solid results, Sanoma revised its financial outlook, homing in on the higher end of its previously stated projections with reported net sales anticipated between EUR 1.38 billion and EUR 1.4 billion, while operational EBIT, excluding PPA, is forecasted to be in the range of EUR 165 million to EUR 175 million.

Learning Business on a Solid Footing

Sanoma's learning business enjoyed a sterling 7% organic growth, with sales in this segment escalating to nearly EUR 700 million from EUR 579 million the year prior. The content arm of the learning business outshone with a 10% growth, underscoring successful price adjustments implemented earlier in the year. Among the notable regional achievements, Spain experienced particularly solid results, with curriculum changes contributing to an advancement in sales. The Netherlands maintained stable operations, balancing robust content growth against the discontinuation of loss-making contracts. Poland also registered positive growth due to curricular updates. These regional performances underline Sanoma's strength and strategic expansion within the learning industry.

Launching the Solar Program to Boost Efficiency

Sanoma introduced its Solar efficiency program, targeting operational improvements to enhance the profitability of its learning business to a 23% margin by 2026. This initiative plans to leverage the company's recent scale expansion through organic growth and acquisitions. The Solar program comprises several strategic elements like organizational enhancements post-curriculum reforms in Spain and Poland, widespread process improvements, ongoing digital platform harmonization, and general cost optimizations. These pieces are projected to deliver a EUR 55 million increase in EBIT, significantly strengthening Sanoma’s profitability by centralizing best practices and streamlining operations.

Earnings Call Transcript 2023-Q3

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Sanoma's Third Quarter 2023 Results Presentation. My name is Kaisa Uurasmaa. I'm heading Investor Relations and Sustainability at Sanoma. And today, we have the CEO, Susan Duinhoven; and CFO, Alex Green presenting the results.In addition to our solid growth in net sales and operational EBIT in learning, they will also discuss the earlier announced Solar efficiency program. After the presentation, we will have a Q&A session. We have audience here at Sanoma House, so we will first take questions from here. Please wait for the microphone. And then after that, we will hand over to the telephone line. In addition, you can also use the chat function in the webcast platform for questions. And this whole session is recorded, and the recording will be available on our website shortly after the end of the event.With this, I would like to hand over to Susan to start, please.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Thank you very much, Kaisa. And also from my end, a warm welcome at this Q3 results presentation. We had a good quarter. Solid growth in net sales and operational EBIT in our learning business drove those results up. If we look at the overview of the key figures. If we look at the first 9 months in the year, EUR 1.1 billion coming up from EUR 1 billion last year, and that was coming from organic growth in learning with 7% up, but also from the Italian acquisition that was this year for the full year in our results. And last year, we acquired on the end of August. And that more than covered the slight decline in our media business in Finland.If we then look at the operational EBIT, excluding PPA, that came to EUR 202 million coming up from EUR 192 million last year, and that was driven by that same strong growth in the learning business. The free cash flow was EUR 35 million, slightly down, but that requires a bit of explanation because there, the Italian business typically has its cash flow in the fourth quarter. And therefore, now having the business for the full year in that drives the cash flow down in the first 9 months.However, if we look excluding the Italian business, then there was a significant uplift in the business in the cash flow as well. Our leverage improved to 2.8%, and that is now at the level of our long-term target. That means below 3 and we have also announced the extra facility of EUR 100 million being signed 2 weeks ago. And that is ready -- be making ourselves ready for the EUR 200 million senior bond refinancing that will take place in March '24, and that we will do both this loan plus our existing facilities.Now after the high season, we feel comfortable to narrow the range in our outlook. And we indicated that our expected reported net sales will be between EUR 138 million and EUR 1.4 billion. And then our operational EBIT, excluding PPA, the range will be in between EUR 165 million and EUR 175 million. So within the earlier indicated range, but slightly on the higher end. And as Kaisa just said, we have also, this morning, announced our program Solar to improve the profitability of our learning business to 23%, so to our long-term target by 2026. And I will give a bit more details in this presentation.But as always, let's start with giving some more details on the learning business. Solid organic growth, are complemented with the Italian acquisition, adding to an increase in sales to close to EUR 700 million coming from EUR 579 million last year. Organic growth of 7% over the learning business and specifically, when we then look at the content part of that business even 10% growth. And that shows the successful implementation of the price increases that we have talked about before.Price increases that in this business typically are done in the January, February timeframe, but then, of course, are only visible in the high season in the Q3. But that strong organic growth was then also taking place in Spain. And as you know, in Spain, large curriculum reform started last year, finalized now this year. And that LOMLOE curriculum change has been going quite successfully.Some of the success now in '23 is also a little bit pulling forward of curriculum changes that were expected to take place only in '24, but they have now been coming early. But what you also see in the third quarter that there is early sales. So where last year sales in Spain was quite delayed from the implementation of that first phase of the LOMLOE. Now the second phase much smoother and therefore, most of the sales being done as it should, with the start of the school year in Q3.In the Netherlands, we see stable position, and that is 2 counterbalancing elements, a very solid growth in the learning content business, but also a rationalization and the planned discontinuation of loss-making contracts on the distribution side of that business. Poland also showed nice growth, and that was a smaller curriculum renewal that we expected to take place, and that happened successfully also in the third quarter. So all in all, strong organic growth position, successful price implementation and successes in Spain, which is a great determining factor for us in this year.And then the Italian and German acquisition now contributing for the full year, the integration going very successfully and on schedule, EUR 104 million of net sales was part -- was associated to those businesses compared to last year, only EUR 21 million because the acquisition taking place end of August, we only had then the last months of that business in our ownership. As you remember, last year, we also divested Eduarte so that reduced our sales by about EUR 6 million.So that strong sales growth then also translated in profitability improvement. And the operational EBIT, excluding PPA, at EUR 179 million, the strong organic growth, the price increases, all that contributed and then also the solid contribution from the Italian business, adding also to the EBIT. That more than counterbalanced the inflationary impact that we also, this year, still experienced paper price increases because in learning, you print in the early part of the year, personnel salary cost increases and some other fixed costs that increased with inflation. But as said, price increases mitigated those cost increases, and we keep to the same indication that it will take 2 years to counterbalance, let's say, last year's price increases and this year's inflation.Now if you look at the curve, you see a very positive picture. And there, I need to give a bit of a warning that because we're looking here at a margin of 12 months rolling 4 quarters, you have here a bit of benefit of a fourth quarter that was a bit exceptionally strong last year and now a more regular third quarter. Last year, we had delays both in the Netherlands and in Spain. And therefore, more of the revenue than normal came in the fourth quarter. And now because of the 12-month rolling, you see those 2 on top of each other.So you need to take into account that the fourth quarter in the learning business will not be at the same loss level as last year, it will be more of at the level of the Q1 results of this year, meaning we have a regular cost and then we have hardly any revenues to compensate for that. This pattern, by the way, is the more regular pattern. Last year was the exceptional one, this year is what you will but we expect to see also in the years going forward.Now then on Solar, that we announced this morning. But it is not on all aspects are not new. The aim of Solar is to do process and efficiency improvements in our learning business to reach a profitability in line with our long-term target of 23% by 2026. And that streamlining of our businesses is something where we now will benefit from the scale that we have gained in the last year. Last year, we have focused quite a bit on organic growth, but also on acquisitions. And this program is now set to really benefit from that, to take the best practices out of each of the organizations, but also to, with this increased scale, lean up all processes.And when we have now put this program together, all the subprojects are time-boxed, targeted, put in motion. Of course, a lot of it is a 3-year program. A lot of it will also be coming in later years where we see improvements in some projects going better than other in a different way. But the 4 key buckets that the EUR 55 million uplift that we expect in EBIT will be coming from our, on the one hand, organizational improvements post the curriculum reforms in Spain and Poland, and we discussed that already a little bit in line with the Q2 results. The process improvements in all our processes and all publishing businesses because these are businesses that have been successful for years and years, but can now take a step of being part of a large European organization. So that gives process improvements that individual businesses might not have had.And then a continuation of our harmonization of digital platforms, that is something that is already ongoing, but is now taken as part of Solar in order to benefit from the monitoring and the management of this larger program, but also because some of these harmonizations are interlinked with process improvements. And then the more regular, I would say, overhead and other cost optimizations across the whole of the SBU. So those 4 streams are buckets of improvements, you could say, add up to the EUR 55 million. We will not, in the coming quarters and years, specify exactly what is what and where do we expect the benefits exactly to come from.We do see that this program also brings some cost with it. And EUR 15 million of those costs have already been booked in the Q3 results as an IAC and those were largely associated with the organizational restructuring in Spain and Poland. But for the next year, we still expect EUR 30 million of cost to be booked as IAC. If we then look at the longer-term impact you see in the graph, small steps in the coming years and then a big margin improvement in 2026. And this is due to the fact of the way our business works.If you look at '23 is a bit of a peak here, '26 is again a bit of a peak here with curriculum reforms. In the years in between, you will have a little bit of a decline in revenues, which is logical post significant curriculum reforms. So if you calculate the '23 margin, you need to do that on a revenue that is similar level as the '23 revenue. But that also is a simple explanation of why some of these cost benefits, they come out once you again, grow the business through curriculum reforms. I'm always saying if you improve a preprint process, you need to do preprint in order to see the benefit of that. At the same time, we will see in the coming years, of course, a continuation of this rationalization of loss-making contracts and lower margin businesses.Now Solar will be quite an area of focus for us in the coming 3 years. But that is always in addition to improving our K12 learning offering for our students and teachers, small in-market acquisitions that are typically highly synergetic and we will, of course, also focus on deleveraging our balance sheet. So that will be our focus for the coming 3 years in addition to this important Solar program.If we then turn our attention to Media Finland. Media Finland is, of course, operating in a slightly adverse economic climate, but doing a good job and continuing its digitalization path successfully. Net sales, however, declined to EUR 150 million, EUR 5 million down from last year, and this was due to the advertising sales, 10% down for us compared to 6% in the market, so a slight loss of market share, but that was particularly in newsprint, where we, as a larger player, are more hard hit when a larger customer step out of print temporarily and in the TV business.So advertising sales a bit down. But then if we look at the subscription sales, that grew modestly. So this quarter, there was a more benefit from a price increase than the slight decline in subscription base took away. We've seen in other quarters that that balance is just a little bit the other way around, but this is the absolute optimization that the team in Media Finland does very well. We've also seen positive developments in the business. Earlier in the year, we had Pluto as the new streaming offering. But now the cooperation with Elisa, where we get high-quality local content onto Ruutu and with that, improve its position as what we would say the go-to local VOD service.If we then look at the operational EBIT, that decreased in line with the advertising sales that is significantly impacting the profitability. But then a good balance with, on the one hand, inflationary cost on salaries and the normalization of the bonus provision, but then mitigated by lower paper costs because in Media Finland, of course, you print every day and you use paper every day, lower paper costs now and also lower printing and distribution costs due to the conversion of print subscriptions to digital subscriptions.But then also, I want to call out specifically that in the Media Finland team, continuous business improvement and process reviews are taking place. And the team has been able, both during corona and now also in adverse economic circumstances, to constantly manage its cost.So with that in circumstance, a strong performance of Media Finland, we feel comfortable to now with the high season in learning behind us to narrow the range in our outlook. On the sales side, we expect the reported net sales to be EUR 1.38 billion and EUR 1.4 billion. The group operational EBIT, excluding PPA, we expect to be between EUR 165 million and EUR 175 million. So within the previous range but a bit at the higher end.And for those expectations, we built that under the assumption that the advertising market in Finland will decline also in the fourth quarter. So in contrast, I would say, to what we thought in the beginning of the year where we thought that the second half would be slightly better, we have now seen third quarter being down and fourth quarter, we expect even against the low comparable to go down. And then we expect that no significant discontinuities appear anywhere else in Europe in the economic climate.So with that, I would like to round off my part of the presentation and hand over to Alex to the details on the financials.

[Alex Green, executive]

Thank you, Susan, and welcome from my side also to this Q3 presentation. I'll start with the operational EBIT for Q3. And as you can see here on the right, Q3 was up EUR 31 million versus prior year with a large boost coming from the learning business. So on the learning side increased by EUR 35 million year-on-year with the curriculum-driven growth, particularly in Poland and Spain and with the earlier finish to the high season than last year. If you remember, last year, we had delays, particularly in Spain. And so we had the EBIT coming in more in Q4. Here, it has been completed earlier than prior year.We also see here the impact of the successful implementation of the price increases across the entire content business and also the impact of the acquired Italian business here. On the Media Finland side, were the slight drop, this is the lower advertising sales and the higher personnel costs and inflation being offset somewhat by the lower paper and printing and distribution costs that Susan was just talking about, and also very active cost containment actions to mitigate the impact.Looking at the cash flow. If we exclude the Italian business, there was a significant increase in the cash at this point in the year versus prior year. Now the Italian business, if you remember, last year, we only acquired it at the end of August and therefore, didn't have the full flows of the cash. This year, we do have the full year flows to the cash. And the Italian business is such that the cash coming in comes in, in Q4. So as well as the sales that have been done, the cash will come in, in October, November and early December.So if you ignore that, there is a significant increase in cash, which comes from some of the measures we talked about the Q2 presentation in terms of higher prepayments, the earlier billing, the better collections and better working cash management across the organization. And Media Finland, also, the improved working cash management or active capital, active working capital management has also mitigated the drop in the sales and therefore -- in the EBIT rather, and therefore, keeping Media Finland that's similar to prior year levels.For the full year 2023, we now expect the free cash flow to be somewhat higher than the underlying level from 2022 of EUR 65 million. Previously, we'd said that it will be about the same now. We are seeing that the better performance, better cash management is going to increase that. So the earlier cashing will increase that somewhat above the EUR 65 million.Moving to leverage. You can see here on the right-hand side at 2.8%, we are now within the long-term target level of 3, and we do expect to stay within it at the end of the year. We see net debt decrease versus both prior year in the end of Q2 to EUR 691 million, which is in line with the seasonality of the sort of performance and the cash coming in, in the third quarter. And this also gets our equity ratio improving to 39.5%, so within the targeted range. Net financial items did increase to EUR 9 million versus EUR 4 million in 2022 in Q3 due to the increase in interest rates. We see average interest rates on our loans at 3.6% versus just over 1% last year.And finally here, just to look at the refinancing, which we will operate on in the end of the first quarter for the EUR 200 million bond that's maturing at the end of March 2024. As you saw, we've signed a new EUR 100 million term loan with one of our key relationship banks, OP, that was in October. We will draw that down in March as part of the repayment of that bond, which matures and we will use also our existing funding facilities, particularly the revolving credit facility, the RCF. But also, we also use -- take advantage of the commercial papers market in Finland, which is very strong for short-term movements in cash needs.The maturity of that EUR 100 million loan is 12 months, but we have an option to extend for a further 10 months. And at the same time, you have seen we did extend the maturity of the EUR 300 million revolving credit facility. It was due to expire at the end of November 2025, as you see on the graph because that graph is as at 30 September. Now that gray column will flip to 2026 as it will expire in November 2026.With that, I will invite Kaisa back to the stage to talk about our upcoming Capital Markets Day.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

Thank you, Alex. And indeed, I would like to warmly welcome you all to join our Capital Markets Day on the 22nd of November. The event will be held in Helsinki, but there is also a virtual participation opportunity. And in the Capital Markets Day, we will elaborate the strategies of both Sanoma learning and Sanoma Media Finland, the CEOs of the businesses Rob Kolkman and Pia Kalsta will be presenting in addition to Alex and Susan. And then we will also discuss, for example, Project Solar. And you will hear more about that when the invitations will be sent out shortly. And on the results side, we will next report on 7th February for the full year results.And with that, we conclude the presentation, and I would like to start the Q&A.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

And we will first take questions from here at Sanoma House. Please use the microphone before asking the question. And Susan, please.

[Sanna Perälä, analyst]

Sanna Perala from Nordea. I have a couple of questions first on the Solar program. And first, you mentioned the net sales development in 2026. So I just want to clarify that it's expected to be on a similar level than this year.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. That's correct. Yes.

[Sanna Perälä, analyst]

All right. And then regarding M&A, does this program mean that you will refrain from M&A for some time now or how should we think about that?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. I think we -- our M&A policy in that sense and our approach is still the same. We will most likely focus on smaller in-market acquisitions in that same timeframe. Those acquisitions are highly synergetic and those are also the ones that you never want to let pass if an opportunity comes by.

[Sanna Perälä, analyst]

Then on a group level, if the learning market is expected to decline in 2024, '25 organically and the Media Finland market is kind of flattish. Where should we expect growth in the coming years before 2026?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

That's the right question and the right math that you're doing.

[Sanna Perälä, analyst]

That's very clear. And the last question. Regarding the advertising market, you expect it to decline in Q4. Do you have any idea when we should expect a recovery in the market?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

No, I think in all fairness, it will very much connect to when do we see the Finnish economy to pick back up. And then specifically, of course, focused on the internal -- the inland consumption. So that is still a link that is unbroken, let's say, in business that the advertising and the GDP growth go quite hand-in-hand. So we're following the economists there. We have nothing to add. The visibility in the advertising market is still very short.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

If no further questions from Sanoma House, I would like to remind you of the opportunity to use the webcast chat. And also now we hand over to the telephone line. Please, operator.

[Operator]

[Operator Instruction] The next question comes from Sami Sarkamies from Danske Bank.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. Firstly, starting from the Q4 outlook. If we look at your revised guidance midpoint, you are suggesting a negative EUR 22 million of EBIT in Q4 after a negative EUR 2 million last year. Can you explain why you expect Q4 profitability to be EUR 20 million lower than last year?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. I think the logic, and I'll hand it otherwise to Alex. but the logic, I think, lies in the learning business. In the learning business last year, we had quite some delays both in Spain and in the Netherlands, meaning that quite a bit of the revenues that we now sort of celebrate in Q3 were actually last year coming in, in Q4. And that's why you saw that Q4 last year had sort of a bit exceptional low losses in the learning business. So that is, let's say, EUR 15 million out of your -- if you take the Q1 of this year and the Q4 of last year, that takes around EUR 15 million. And then the remainder is the decline in Media Finland.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. That's very clear. And then moving into the learning. Did I understand correctly that you're suggesting flat sales over the next 2-year period, even though they will still be sort of price increases?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. We indicate that 2026 will be expecting to be at the same level. And let's be fair with each other. We're talking 3 years out. So this is not a perfect guidance in the way that we normally guide for the next year. But this is in order to avoid misconceptions about the 23% going over potentially to higher revenue. So that's why we're indicating that take into account that this will be give or take, at the same level of '23. We're now at the peak and in '26, we again expect to be a bit peaking because of curriculum changes in Belgium, in the Netherlands, so in many of those markets. So that's how you need to read this, but take this as an indication, not as a guidance yet.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. But I guess, previously, I mean it's been that you would be within the 2% to 5%, let's say, bracket.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Long term.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Maybe the reason that you've been pulling revenues from next year into this year, I guess, in Spain, the curriculum renewals have happened a bit faster this year.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. But I think you also need to take into account, and that is our things that also create some still uncertainty in these indications. Also take into account that what we're planning to do is reduce low-margin loss-making contracts and business lines. And those reductions, they will, of course then also give a reduction in revenue. So this is where we always indicate when we say 2% to 5% that is the underlying business, so the continuing business. And there, I think if you look at our learning businesses, the success of the price increases, the way we see those businesses developing very strong, good performance. But there are also business lines where we want to reduce. And that, of course, in the total of the company, you see that then back as a little bit flattish. But I think that is an improvement of the business quality.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Yes. And can you still confirm that you will be making another round of, let's say, above normal price increases next year?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. We definitely -- and this is, of course, market by market, product by product. So I'm not here to scare all our customers. But we are, of course, making significant price increases because the cost inflation requires that. So we're confirming that, that is the path. And as long as there is this level of inflation, we will also need to do. And maybe over time, we will no longer call it above average, but it will be following the inflation.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. And then moving on to the, let's say, margin progression that you have provided for learning, a bit difficult to understand why it's looking like a hockey stick because you're making quite material cost measures, which seem front-loaded. You just said that you will be reducing low-margin contracts going into next year. You're making these price increases. So why don't you expect more margin progression in '24 and '25?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Because it is -- and I fully understand the complexity of getting a handle on this, and we will spend more time on that on the Capital Markets Day because what is crucial is to understand, let's say, the base of the business fluctuations. And if you were to look, let's say, at '24 and '25, excluding Solar, you would see that -- and these are largely fixed cost businesses that the revenue swings in Spain and Poland are quite significant, and that goes almost directly to your bottom line.So the fact, if you keep those margins at the same level that already requires and eats up if you want to say it that way, eats up the benefits, the early benefits of Solar in '24 and '25. Then in '26, when you see that revenue come back in the curriculum reform, then you also see all the process improvements in the business coming to fruition because then you really -- it sparks that growth of the business at lower cost. So that's where you then see the 2026.And as you can imagine, from telling the story, we have really sort of looked on what can we do to pull things forward. But this is part of the business, is that we have these fluctuations. And there they also bring us peaks like now in '23 and in '26. But in the years in between, it is -- in that sense, a bit tighter. And this is where Solar then comes in and put structural improvements in the business. They don't show up immediately. But once they show up, they are there to stay. So that's where we're seeing 2026 will be 23%. But then from that moment on, that is our normal margin level.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. And what about the rest of '23, will you benefit already from these early cost measures related to Solar?

[Alex Green, executive]

So most of these costs measures related -- most of these cost measures relating to Solar will come in the outer years, as Susan says, the Q3 -- sorry, the 2023 guidance, which we've narrowed does not include any benefits from that.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. But do you mean that even next year, there will be an immediate tailwinds from the cost measures?

[Alex Green, executive]

The cost measures will start to come in next year, but the impact of them due to the volumes coming down will not show until the volume sort of ramp up in 2026. So the other movements of the business kind of counter the impacts we have. And it's also worth saying that some of the measures we're taking are to do with the content creation area, of which a chunk of that is capitalized in prepub and has an impact on the P&L over the following years as well, which helps to sort of move that impact a bit later.

[Sami Sarkamies, analyst]

Okay. And finally, can you elaborate on the visibility you have for '26 regarding this curriculum of renewals.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. I think that is something that I would say because the curriculum renewals for '26 are of course, in our numbers, if you look at our typical we now don't have the slide here, are typical, what I would call wave slide, there you see exactly which markets are planned to go up. This will be a central part of our Capital Markets Day. So if that's okay with you, then I would hold off on that detailed answer to that moment. And then Rob Kolkman can elaborate also in more detail on the markets that are going down in between and the markets that are going up predominantly then in '26.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi from Carnegie Investment Bank.

[Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi, analyst]

It's Pia. If I start with the Solar program. So you also mentioned the harmonization of digital platforms project which has already started. If I think about the costs related to the program, EUR 45 million to Solar program of EUR 45 million. Can you remind me how much investments have you put and do you plan to put into the harmonization of digital platforms? So should we think of these costs kind of on top of this Solar program?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

No. What -- it's exactly for this reason that we have now taken the harmonization of the platforms into the Solar program. So going forward, even though this is a program that has already started, we have already done certain investments, have already also gotten some benefits out of that harmonization. But from now on, we take the harmonization of the platforms as part of the Solar. So it is included both in the IAC and in the benefits from now on.

[Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi, analyst]

All right. Sorry, just to clarify, so the costs you announced in conjunction with the acquisition of the peers and assets in Italy and Germany. Are these already included in this EUR 45 million or are they on top?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

No. Those are already spent. Sorry, yes, that is the program that started, let's say, 1st September last year. There might be a little bit still coming, but that is -- that program -- that integration program is largely rounded off. So this is more the bigger scale learning platform harmonizations apart from the immediate integrations and sort of getting out of the Pearson systems that those are typically quite urgent and immediate elements that need to be done. And that harmonization, that integration cost is already taken.

[Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi, analyst]

All right. Then you referred to active discontinuation of lower-margin contracts and businesses. So do you here refer to the distribution business also in the future? Or is there something else you plan to do?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

No. This is mostly distribution business. In every business, there are also some product lines that are maybe marginal or getting marginal within this period. So that's why we broadened the statement a bit. Also in our internal practices, we typically see if businesses are not contributing and not on a path to contribute significantly, then we need to decide if they're truly strategically needed. Then of course, there can be good reasons to keep. But if not, then we will scale down or work with customers to make them more value adding and therefore, also more profitable.

[Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi, analyst]

All right. I have another 2 questions still. With regards to Q3 and the organic growth in sales in learning, I think it was 9%. Should I understand here that roughly 5% is coming from or came from price increases and the rest from volumes then partly shifting from Q4 and 2024?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Just looking at the colleagues here.

[Alex Green, executive]

7% overall in learning, but 10% from the content businesses.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

That is year-to-date. This is now Q3.

[Alex Green, executive]

Year to date, currently Q3.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Q3. But I think that the split between volume and price, that is a little bit hard to give on a quarter-by-quarter basis because the volume effect of the price increase will also partially be included in Q4. So this is where we have indicated before that our price increase is around 6%, difference between markets, between products, but that is our indication still. If then, structurally over the whole of the year, this plus 10% would sustain, then it would actually mean that we have gained market share, gained volume to the extent of the 4. So that is a little bit how I'm looking at it. But typically, these type of analysis, we can only comfortably make sort of once we have the full year results in hand. I'm sorry to say.

[Pia Rosqvist-Heinsalmi, analyst]

Yes. Right. Okay. Then finally, in learning, you made an impairment of EUR 6 million related to rental book fixed assets. They were slightly lower compared to last year. So can you still, I mean, add details on this? Is this relating to the business in Netherlands? And is this something we should expect to continue?

[Alex Green, executive]

So this -- yes, this does relate to the distribution business. In Netherlands, as you say, it's a rental books provision, which is connected to the discontinuation of loss-making contracts and also reflecting the movements in the rental book market there. And that gets us -- that's the year-to-date provision, which gets us to the levels which match the business as it goes forward.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

But this is a correction that is now taken with a new school year start as a review. The remaining position on the balance sheet is very small. So this magnitude is way more sizable than the remaining total value on the balance sheet. So we can, with certainty, say that there will no similar magnitude of write-downs taking place.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Maria Wikstrom from SEB.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Yes. I also have one question relating to the Solar program. And just wondering a little bit, get the magnitude that how much of this EUR 55 million and -- or sorry, yes. So how much of this EUR 55 million cost savings is coming from organizational optimization. So basically, I mean, with personal negotiations or after personal negotiations?

[Alex Green, executive]

So we're not splitting out the EUR 55 million but the 4 elements that we talked about on the slide in terms of the organization, particularly in Poland and Spain in terms of the publishing refocus and then the platform harmonization and then also overheads and other optimizations, all 4 of those things have a significant impact in that overall number. And the -- as you said, a number of those ones do have organization impacts of which the final cost and the final result is subject to the negotiations with the works councils, but it is spread across those 4 different programs or parts of the programs.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

And just to add to that also to give you a bit of a flavor of how we're approaching this, a lot of the process optimizations, you strengthened the processing, you lean it up. Most of the processes have external costs included investments, systems and personnel, and therefore, how that exactly will work out, so how that exact split between personnel cost and system costs, how that -- and third-party and freelancers and those different cost elements, how that split will exactly end up. We do not know yet. So that's where we provide for it. We have, of course, the averages we count on.But this is why this will also be project-per-project examined, concluded, negotiated with works councils. So this is not one big restructure where you would say this is the number of staff that we indicate. Now this is process by process, we optimize. And for those of you who were there when we did the same thing in Media Finland, it was then called Program Suunta, that had exactly the same structure. But also the -- from an analyst perspective, unfortunate element that it does continue in hindsight, you can say exactly how it's split. But when you start this project, we know what will come out, but how exactly that will work the same with the exact timing of things, that is an ongoing process.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Okay. Maybe asking it a little bit different way as well because it's, of course, I mean one thing you come to the granularity that how we get to the quite massive profit lift in '26. And now if I look at the chart, it looks like it will be quite limited in '24 and '25 and it's like still 3 years out, that what's your confidence level that you will actually reach this EUR 55 million cost savings, and they won't be lost, I mean, elsewhere, I mean, during these 3 years.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes, I must say that's -- and here, I have done these type of processes and major projects several times. And my confidence in this is very high. And the confidence comes from the fact that we have now done 9 months of prework on this. So this is not something that we now come up with and then go into the organization and explain, this is now 9 months, 3 months in the senior team level, 6 months in details in the organization, where you, for example, also see that a big part of the kick start in Poland and in Spain process optimizations, they have already started.So we have not waited for announcing the overall program with kick-starting elements of it. So that all solidifies together with the planning, the monitoring, the guidance that we put on this, the senior resources that we make free to work on this for 3 years. And let's not forget that we have done several acquisitions in the last couple of years. And when you do these integrations, we have also take, for example, in Media Finland, we have promised at the start a very significant cost reduction coming from the integration and then being able to monitor, report back on that and conclude that we met it and exceeded that saving by, I think, EUR 1 million or EUR 1.5 million.So I think from memory, we promised 13% and we came back with 14.5%. So it's not -- even though, of course, such a program has a different name and has a different dynamic, but it is very similar to doing the first level of integration. And now we're looking at this more overall. So I'm with you, and I know the general suspicions on 3-year programs. I must say, I have good experience with them. We will have in '24 the majority of these projects are very well underway. But as Alex just explained, in a number of them, they kick in through the investments, so come only out, but with certainty, they come out then in the depreciation.And with other projects, they will come out once we grow the business again and start using all our publication processes. So I think that the certainty that I feel on this is, yes, is very high. But that is to you, of course, to judge.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Sounds very promising. Then I have few more questions, which the next one is on the free cash flow. And you say that you will exceed this EUR 65 million this year. I mean what would be the normalized level of free cash flow if we go into the '24, '25?

[Alex Green, executive]

So as I say, yes, we will be a bit above the 65% resay. We're not here, at this point, going to announce a sort of soft guidance for '24. We'll come back and do that once we see where we land and where we have the full year completed.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Maybe if I ask it other way, is there anything special on the free cash flow this year that I should take into account when I do the estimate for '24?

[Alex Green, executive]

Well, as we've announced, we talked about the Solar-related IACs. So 15 already booked this year and then the 30 next year. So they will be cash. And so that difference is something you can factor in. And also, we've also, I think, the refinancing of the bond will because the actual original bond is at a very, very advantageous rate. So in refinancing, we will have an increase in financing costs to the tune of about EUR 5 million, EUR 6 million. So that also is a factor in next year as well.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

But I think, generally speaking, I would also invite here for a Capital Markets Day, but also very specifically for the full year results because that's when we do the guidance for the next year. And then there is also the logic, of course, between the results and the cash flow projection.

[Maria Wikstrom, analyst]

Yes. And then I think I mean, you Alex already answered my third question, which would be a little bit on guidance. I mean what you are paying for the new loans. But if I got it right, you said the finance cost will be EUR 5 million to EUR 6 million higher next year given this refinance of the bond. So I think I can calculate from there if that was what you said.

[Alex Green, executive]

That's the full year rough estimated delta, yes.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

And I believe we don't have any further questions on the telephone line. And I think that many of the questions in the chat, which are quite plenty this time. I think many of them have been answered. I will try to group a few topics where I think that we have a few new questions still. The first one, I think, relates to Spain. And -- was there some market share gain in Spain now during the curriculum renewal?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. It's a very good question. And this is something that is always hard to estimate. We typically get in the New Year, we get some analysis out of different markets with different precision levels, to be honest, on how the market share has been developed in the year before. So we don't know yet. We do know that also the competitors in Spain have invested quite heavily in this curriculum renewal because it has been so massive and so important across all school types. So if you didn't invest at this time, you were almost out of business. Normally, you can sort of say, I pass on this little reform and I stay in that, but here, everything had to be renewed.So we don't expect major market share gains, but this is something that is now also to follow up in the coming years based on the strong and the positive response that we have gotten.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

Okay. And then the next topic, I think, goes around Solar and the development in '24, '26 time. First of all, kind of thinking about '24, '26 and then the EUR 55 million savings and then inflation or deflation of different cost elements. Has that been taken into account? And how should one kind of look at that?

[Alex Green, executive]

Yes. I mean the -- yes, in terms of the savings, the savings that we calculate are '26 versus 2023. And they do include like all our forecast now a sort of element of inflation now that we're in an inflation world. And so they do but not but estimating to come down a little bit in the outer years.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

It is important to realize that we're, of course, we're forecasting a margin 23% that will -- the sales element as well is in there. So this is where it is taken in -- it is fully modeled from the core of the business processes out.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

Okay. And then indeed, there was one question that related to kind of the top line development in -- particularly in '24, '25 that takes into account the kind of expected continuing price increases also.

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes, absolute. Yes, exactly.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

And yes, maybe that was it on Solar more or less. And then the final topic would be the dividend. The dividend was cut by roughly 30% for '22. And how would you now describe the board's commitment to this level? Is this considered some kind of flaw, where we continue or something else?

[Susan Duinhoven, executive]

Yes. Our dividend policy is quite clear. So the dividend policy is, in that sense, unchanged. We have a range of 40% to 60% of free cash flow that we indicate as a dividend level. Dividend is an important part of our equity story, but it will be on the board. The second part of our dividend strategy also specifies that the Board will always take into account economic circumstances, capital needs of the company. So it takes that all in balance if it were to deviate from that range. But that is where I think we stand at this moment to give any further clarity would be premature because the dividend always is announced at the full year results presentation when we then can also see what the total result for the year has been.

[Kaisa Uurasmaa, executive]

And we have some questions from media in the chat as well. Our practice has been to come back to those net 1 after this event. So we will do that now as well. And I think that concludes actually the questions. And if somebody feels that your question in the chat was missed that I think that we have covered them in a way or another, but definitely, we, at Investor Relations, we remain at your disposal, of course, for the afternoon. So we will come back to discuss.I would like to thank all participants here at Sanoma House and online for active participation in this webcast. And I wish you a nice day, and hope to talk to you again soon and see you at our Capital Markets Day. Thank you.